Exhibit E
RISK FACTORS
Risk Factors Relating to Peru
Peru may experience political, economic or social problems that may interfere with Peru’s ability to service its indebtedness.
In the past, Peru has experienced economic and political instability and terrorist insurgency. At present, Peru is a stable democracy having completed a peaceful transition from the administration of President Ollanta Humala to President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who took office in July 2016, in addition to the prior transition to President Ollanta Humala by President Alan García. President Kuczynski was in office through March 23, 2018, when Congress accepted his resignation following allegations of corruption related to the Odebrecht corruption scandal. On that same date, Vice President Martín Vizcarra was sworn in as president to complete the term through 2021. Peru’s GDP growth rates, low inflation, and both fiscal and external surpluses reflect, in part, the strength of Peru’s economic fundamentals. However, a deterioration of the global economy or a sharp decrease in commodity prices may adversely affect Peru’s economy. In addition, an economic contraction or weak economic growth in Peru’s trading partners may have an adverse effect on Peru. Despite Peru’s ongoing economic growth and stabilization, the social and political tensions and levels of poverty and unemployment continue, notwithstanding the 38.0% drop in poverty levels between 2004 and 2016. Future government policies to pre-empt or respond to social unrest could include, among other things, the suspension of the enforcement of creditors’ rights and new taxation policies. The government cannot assure you that Peru will not face political, economic or social problems in the future or that these problems will not interfere with Peru’s ability to service its debt.
Furthermore, some of the measures proposed by the administration may generate political and social opposition, which may in turn prevent the government from adopting such measures as proposed. This creates further uncertainty in the ability of the administration to pass measures that it expects to implement. See “Recent Developments—History”.
In addition, economic and political developments in other emerging countries in Latin America, such as Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela may have an adverse effect on other countries in the region, including Peru.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
History, Government and Political Parties
History
On January 10, 2019, Congress ratified the referendum, previously submitted for public comment in October 2018 and approved by a majority of the public in December 2018, regarding the approval of a constitutional reform prohibiting re-election of members of Congress to consecutive terms. Specifically, Congress issued Law N° 30,906 which incorporates article 90-A into the Peruvian Constitution of 1993, establishing the prohibition of reelection to consecutive terms. As such, current members of Congress will not be eligible for re-election in the next election.
On July 31, 2019, President Martín Vizcarra proposed constitutional reforms to permit the acceleration of presidential and congressional elections from 2021, as scheduled, to 2020. On September 25, 2019, the Constitutional Commission of Congress rejected President Vizcarra’s proposal.
On September 30, 2019, then Prime Minister Salvador del Solar requested a vote of confidence (cuestión de confianza) from the Congress to change the system for appointing judges to the Constitutional Court of Peru. Prior to considering the issue, Congress voted to appoint a judge to the Constitutional Court by majority approval. President Martĺn Vizcarra then took executive action to dissolve Congress under Article 134 of the Peruvian Constitution of 1993 and called for new congressional elections, which are currently scheduled for January 26, 2020. President Vizcarra’s decision was based on the premise that Congress’ action to elect the judge constituted a second vote of “no confidence,” the first having occurred on September 14, 2017. Congress reacted to its dissolution by voting in favor of the vote of confidence sought by the Prime Minister and then voting to suspend President Vizcarra for twelve months and naming Vice President Mercedes Araoz as President to temporarily replace Mr. Vizcarra. Mrs. Araoz resigned one day following her appointment.
On October 3, 2019, the following ministers were appointed:
| • | | Vicente Antonio Zeballos Salinas – Prime Minister. |
| • | | Ana Teresa Revilla Vergara – Ministry of Justice and Human Rights. |
| • | | Carlos Morán Soto – Ministry of Interior. |
| • | | María Antonieta Alva Luperdi – Ministry of Economy and Finance. |
| • | | Walter Roger Martos Ruiz – Ministry of Defense. |
| • | | Gustavo Adolfo Meza-Cuadra Velásquez – Ministry of Foreign Affairs. |
| • | | Juan Carlos Liu Yonsen – Ministry of Energy and Mines. |
| • | | Edgar Manuel Vásquez Vela – Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism. |
| • | | Rocío Ingred Barrios Alvarado – Ministry of Production. |
| • | | Sylvia Elizabeth Cáceres Pizarro – Ministry of Labor and Promotion of Employment. |
| • | | Jorge Luis Montenegro Chavesta – Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. |
| • | | Elizabeth Zulema Tomás Gonzáles – Ministry of Health. |
| • | | Flor Aidee Pablo Medina – Ministry of Education. |
| • | | Edmer Trujillo Mori – Ministry of Transport and Communications. |
| • | | Rodolfo Eugenio Yáñez Wendorff – Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation. |
| • | | Gloria Edelmira Montenegro Figueroa – Ministry of Women and Vulnerable Populations. |
| • | | Fabiola Martha Muñoz Dodero – Ministry of Environment. |
| • | | Francisco Enrique Hugo Petrozzi Franco – Ministry of Culture. |
| • | | Jorge Enrique Meléndez Celis – Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion. |
On October 10, 2019, Mr. Pedro Olaechea, the president of the “Permanent Commission of Congress” (Comisión Permanente del Congreso), filed a claim before the Constitutional Court seeking the Court to declare President Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress unconstitutional and requested a preliminary injunction aimed to reinstate the dissolved Congress. On October 29, 2019, the Constitutional Court announced that it agreed to hear Congress’ claim but also rejected the claimant’s request for the preliminary injunction. On November 4, 2019, the Constitutional Court published its written resolution to admit the claim. In the resolution, the Constitutional Court stated that its final decision would only have prospective effect. In addition, the Constitutional Court has resolved that its final decision will not alter the timetable for the congressional elections scheduled for January 26, 2020.
See “Risk Factors—Peru may experience political, economic or social problems that may interfere with Peru’s ability to service its indebtedness.”
Budget Process
In the context of the dissolution of Congress described above and given that congressional elections will not be held until January 2020, the national budget for the 2020 fiscal year will be approved by urgency decree issued by the executive branch pursuant to the provisions of section 19 of article 118 of the Peruvian Constitution of 1993. The decree is required to be issued by November 30, 2019.
The Economy
Gross Domestic Product and the Structure of the Economy
During the six months ended June 30, 2019, Peru’s economy expanded 1.7% in real terms based on GDP growth, and domestic demand increased 1.8% compared to the six months ended June 30, 2018, due primarily to increased private consumption and investment.
In the six months ended June 30, 2019, private consumption grew by 2.8% in real terms and gross private investment increased by 4.0%, as compared to the same period in 2018. Public sector investment decreased 0.7% in the six months ended June 30, 2019 due mainly to a decrease in investments by central and municipal governments, compared to the six months ended June 30, 2018. Private investment increased 4.0% in the six months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, primarily due to an increase in the investment in the mining sector. Total gross investment during six months ended June 30, 2019 decreased 0.1% compared to six months ended June 30, 2018.
The following tables set forth GDP by expenditure for the periods presented.
Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure
(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)
| | | | | | | | |
| | For the six months ended June 30, | |
| | 2018(1) | | | 2019(1) | |
Government consumption | | | 11,628 | | | | 11,723 | |
Private consumption | | | 73,369 | | | | 75,511 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total consumption | | | 84,997 | | | | 87,235 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Gross investment: | | | | | | | | |
Private sector | | | 19,182 | | | | 19,981 | |
Public sector | | | 3,931 | | | | 3,885 | |
Change in inventories | | | 68 | | | | (698 | ) |
| | | | | | | | |
Total gross investment | | | 23,181 | | | | 23,167 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Demand | | | 108,178 | | | | 110,402 | |
Exports of goods and services | | | 28,156 | | | | 26,435 | |
Imports of goods and services | | | 25,442 | | | | 25,320 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Net (exports) | | | 2,713 | | | | 1,114 | |
GDP | | | 110,891 | | | | 111,516 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Source: Central Bank.
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