Dear Fellow Shareholders:
We are pleased to present you with this annual report for Value Line Core Bond Fund and The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. (individually, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”) for the 12 months ended December 31, 2019.
During the annual period, the taxable and tax-exempt fixed income markets generated solid positive absolute returns, boosted by a variety of economic and market factors discussed below. Further, the annual period was highlighted by each of the fixed income Value Line Funds being recognized for its long-term performance and/or attractive risk profiles.
• Value Line Core Bond Fund, Inc.* outpaced the category average return of its peers for the one- and ten-year periods ended December 31, 2019 (intermediate core bond category), as measured by Morningstar,1, 2
• The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc.* was given an overall Risk Rating of Below Averageii by Morningstar.1
On the following pages, the Funds’ portfolio managers discuss the management of their respective Funds during the annual period. The discussions highlight key factors influencing recent performance of the Funds. You will also find a Schedule of Investments and financial statements for each of the Funds.
Before reviewing the performance of your individual mutual fund investment(s), we encourage you to take a brief look at the major factors affecting the financial markets during the 12 months ended December 31, 2019, especially given the newsworthy events of the annual period. With meaningful trends and some surprising shifts during 2019 in several drivers of the capital markets, we also invite you to take this time to consider a broader diversification strategy by including additional Value Line Funds in your investment portfolio. You can find out more about the entire family of Value Line Funds at our website, www.vlfunds.com.
Economic Review
Overall, the annual period was one of positive but slowing economic growth and modest inflation both in the U.S. and globally. For the first three quarters of 2019, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth registered an average of 2.4%, compared to a 2.9% average growth rate for the first three quarters of 2018. U.S. economic growth is predicted to be notably slower for the fourth quarter of 2019, with the advance estimate coming in at a 2.2% GDP growth rate. European economic growth was even weaker, with the aggregate GDP of the Eurozone measuring 1.2% for the first three quarters of 2019, compared to a growth rate of 2.1% for the same period in 2018. Within Asia, Chinese economic growth, for the first three quarters, slowed to 6.3% in 2019 from 6.8% in 2018. As in the U.S., European and Chinese economic growth is predicted to be slower for the fourth quarter of 2019. The advance estimate for the Eurozone’s fourth quarter GDP growth rate is 1.1%, and the actual fourth quarter GDP growth rate for China came in at 6.1%.
The global economic slowdown was led by weakness in the manufacturing sector. Starting in August 2019, for example, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, an important measure, fell below 50, the level widely considered to be a sign of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Through the end of 2019, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index registered below 50 in each month, with December 2019 showing the weakest reading, i.e. 47.2. Germany, normally the strongest economy in Europe, similarly experienced below 50 readings in its Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for the entire calendar year, ending 2019 with a December reading of 43.7. Overall, Eurozone manufacturing, as measured by the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, was also weak, averaging 47.4 for the year. A good deal of the weakness in manufacturing, globally, can be attributed to the trade war between the U.S. and China, where tariffs were implemented on both sides, thereby affecting virtually all of the world’s economies negatively.
Despite slower economic growth rates and contracting manufacturing sectors globally, the U.S. economy did not come close to hitting a recession in 2019. Buttressing the U.S. economy was the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (the Fed), which reduced short-term interest rates three times during the second half of the calendar year — by a total of 75 basis points, thereby providing stimulus to a sluggish economy. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) The U.S. labor market remained especially healthy. Nonfarm payroll job growth averaged a respectable 175,000 jobs per month for 2019, and the U.S. unemployment rate ended the year at 3.5%, extremely low by historical standards. This labor market strength, combined with lower interest rates, supported consumer spending and the housing market. New home sales began the calendar year at 644,000 in January 2019 and by the end of November 2019 had registered 719,000. Retail sales averaged a growth rate of 0.5% per month in 2019, which is about the average retail spending level for the past two years.
Against a backdrop of a slower economy, U.S. inflation slipped lower. For 2019, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index, which measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services excluding food and energy, registered within a range of 1.5% to 1.7% for 2019, as compared to a range of 1.8% to 2.0% for 2018 and significantly below the 2.0% inflation target of the Fed.
In large part because of the weaker economy and the Fed lowering the targeted federal funds rate, U.S. Treasury rates declined during 2019. The two-year U.S. Treasury note began the year with a yield of 2.48% and ended the year at 1.58%, a drop of 90 basis points. The bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury note started the year with a yield of 2.69% and closed the year with a yield of 1.92%, a 77 basis point decline.