Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans | 5. Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans The allowance for credit losses totaled $90.0 million at March 31, 2022, compared to $92.0 million at December 31, 2021. The allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans was 1.18% at March 31, 2022, compared to 1.23% at December 31, 2021. The March 31, 2022, December 31, 2021, March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020 allowance for credit losses calculation incorporated a 6-quarter forecast period to account for forecast economic conditions under each scenario utilized in the measurement. For periods beyond the 6-quarter forecast, the model reverts to long-term economic conditions over a 4-quarter reversion period on a straight-line basis. The Company considers a baseline, upside, and downside economic forecast in measuring the allowance. The quantitative model as of March 31, 2022 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model, particularly significant unknowns relating to downside risks as of the measurement date. The baseline outlook reflected an unemployment rate environment initially above pre-COVID-19 levels at 4.3% but falling below pre-coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic levels by the fourth quarter of the forecast period and to a low of 3.4%. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) was expected to start the second quarter of 2022 at approximately 9% and hover around 5.5% by the middle and end of the forecast period. Other utilized economic variables either improved or remained relatively flat, with retail sales and business output remaining steady from the prior quarter and housing starts increasing from the prior quarter’s forecast. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included continued abatement of COVID-19, the containment of the European conflict to only Russia and Ukraine, further increase of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and achievement of full employment by the end of 2022. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic and epidemiological conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, northeast unemployment rises from 4.8% in the first quarter of 2022 to a peak of 7.15% in the second quarter of 2023. The alternative upside scenario incorporated a more optimistic outlook than the baseline scenario, with an imminent return to full employment with northeast unemployment declining to 2.99% by the end of the forecast period. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of March 31, 2022. At March 31, 2022, the weightings were 60%, 0% and 40% for the baseline, upside and downside economic forecasts, respectively. The Company also continued to monitor the level of criticized and classified loans in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the level contemplated by the model during similar, historical economic conditions, and determined that an adjustment was no longer required. The quantitative model as of December 31, 2021 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with alternative upside and downside scenarios sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. The baseline outlook reflected an unemployment rate environment initially above pre-COVID-19 levels at 4.8% but falling below pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the forecast period to 3.5%. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) was expected to start the first quarter of 2022 at approximately 9% and hovering around 5% by the middle and end of the forecast period. Other utilized economic variables showed mixed changes in their respective forecasts, with retail sales and business output declining from the prior quarter and housing starts increasing from the prior quarter’s forecast. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included continued abatement of the COVID-19 pandemic, enactment of the Build Back Better Act by the end of 2021, near-term peaking of consumer price acceleration, accelerated asset purchase tapering at the Federal Reserve, and full employment by the end of 2022. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic and epidemiological conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, northeast unemployment rises from 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a peak of 8% in the first quarter of 2023, remaining around or above 7% for the entire forecast period. The alternative upside scenario incorporated a more optimistic outlook than the baseline scenario, with a swift return to full employment by the second quarter of 2022 and with northeast unemployment moving down to 3.1% by the end of the forecast period. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of December 31, 2021. At December 31, 2021, the weightings were 60%, 10% and 30% for the baseline, upside and downside economic forecasts, respectively. Additional adjustments were made for COVID-19 related factors not incorporated in the forecasts, such as the mitigating impact of unprecedented stimulus in the second and third quarters of 2020, including direct payments to individuals, increased unemployment benefits, the Company’s loan deferral and modification initiatives and various government sponsored loan programs. The Company also continued to monitor the level of criticized and classified loans in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the level contemplated by the model during similar, historical economic conditions, and an adjustment was made to estimate potential additional losses above modeled losses. Additionally, qualitative adjustments were made for Moody’s baseline economic forecast to include impacts of the Build Back Better Act not passing by December 31, 2021 and to address potential economic deterioration due to Omicron, as well as isolated model limitations related to modeled outputs given abnormally high retail sales and business output growth rates in historical periods. These factors were considered through separate quantitative processes and incorporated into the estimate of current expected credit losses at December 31, 2021. There were no loans purchased with credit deterioration during the three months ended March 31, 2022 or the year ended December 31, 2021. During 2022, the Company purchased $3.0 million of residential loans at a 1.35% premium and $33.5 million in consumer loans at par. The allowance for credit losses recorded for these loans on the purchase date was $2.1 million. During 2021, the Company purchased $58.9 million of residential loans at a 2%-5% premium and $92.5 million in consumer loans at par. The allowance for credit losses recorded for these loans on the purchase date was $6.8 million. The Company made a policy election to report AIR in the other assets line item on the balance sheet. AIR on loans totaled $19.1 million at March 31, 2022 and $19.5 million at December 31, 2021 and there was no estimated allowance for credit losses related to AIR as of March 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021. The provision for loan losses was an expense of $0.6 million and a benefit of $2.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022 and March 31, 2021, respectively. The increase in provision expense was driven by providing for the increase in loan balances in the first quarter of 2022 and the changes in the economic condition forecasts from quarter to quarter. The following tables present the activity in the allowance for credit losses by our portfolio segments: (In thousands) Commercial Loans Consumer Loans Residential Total Balance as of December 31, 2021 $ 28,941 $ 44,253 $ 18,806 $ 92,000 Charge-offs (588 ) (3,591 ) (312 ) (4,491 ) Recoveries 93 1,652 150 1,895 Provision 111 1,277 (792 ) 596 Ending balance as of March 31 2022 $ 28,557 $ 43,591 $ 17,852 $ 90,000 Balance as of December 31, 2020 $ 50,942 $ 37,803 $ 21,255 $ 110,000 Charge-offs (242 ) (4,348 ) (70 ) (4,660 ) Recoveries 118 2,075 263 2,456 Provision (773 ) (950 ) (1,073 ) (2,796 ) Ending balance as of March 31 2021 $ 50,045 $ 34,580 $ 20,375 $ 105,000 The decrease in the allowance for credit losses from December 31, 2021 to March 31, 2022 was primarily due to an improvement in the economic forecast, partly offset by providing for the increase in loan balances. The decrease in the allowance for credit losses from December 31, 2020 to March 31, 2021 was primarily due to an improvement in the economic forecast. Individually Evaluated Loans As of March 31, 2022, there were five relationships identified to be evaluated for loss on an individual basis which had an amortized cost basis of $9.9 million and no allowance for credit loss. As of December 31, 2021, the same five relationships were identified to be evaluated for loss on an individual basis with an amortized cost basis of $10.2 million and no allowance for credit loss. The following table sets forth information with regard to past due and nonperforming loans by loan segment: (In thousands) 31-60 Days Past Due Accruing 61-90 Days Past Due Accruing Greater Than 90 Days Past Due Accruing Total Past Due Accruing Nonaccrual Current Recorded Total Loans As of March 31 2022 Commercial loans: C&I $ 476 $ 633 $ - $ 1,109 $ 3,345 $ 1,171,795 $ 1,176,249 CRE 1,066 - - 1,066 12,552 2,615,792 2,629,410 PPP 77 - - 77 - 50,900 50,977 Total commercial loans $ 1,619 $ 633 $ - $ 2,252 $ 15,897 $ 3,838,487 $ 3,856,636 Consumer loans: Auto $ 6,250 $ 1,038 $ 455 $ 7,743 $ 1,622 $ 850,425 $ 859,790 Other consumer 3,303 1,643 927 5,873 301 888,977 895,151 Total consumer loans $ 9,553 $ 2,681 $ 1,382 $ 13,616 $ 1,923 $ 1,739,402 $ 1,754,941 Residential $ 1,761 $ 532 $ 562 $ 2,855 $ 7,992 $ 2,027,402 $ 2,038,249 Total loans $ 12,933 $ 3,846 $ 1,944 $ 18,723 $ 25,812 $ 7,605,291 $ 7,649,826 (In thousands) 31-60 Days Past Due Accruing 61-90 Days Past Due Accruing Greater Than 90 Days Past Due Accruing Total Past Due Accruing Nonaccrual Current Recorded Total Loans As of December 31 2021 Commercial loans: C&I $ 622 $ - $ - $ 622 $ 3,618 $ 1,126,430 $ 1,130,670 CRE 1,219 132 - 1,351 12,726 2,550,910 2,564,987 PPP - - - - - 101,222 101,222 Total commercial loans $ 1,841 $ 132 $ - $ 1,973 $ 16,344 $ 3,778,562 $ 3,796,879 Consumer loans: Auto $ 6,911 $ 1,547 $ 545 $ 9,003 $ 1,295 $ 816,210 $ 826,508 Other consumer 3,789 1,816 1,105 6,710 233 832,447 839,390 Total consumer loans $ 10,700 $ 3,363 $ 1,650 $ 15,713 $ 1,528 $ 1,648,657 $ 1,665,898 Residential $ 2,481 $ 420 $ 808 $ 3,709 $ 12,413 $ 2,019,560 $ 2,035,682 Total loans $ 15,022 $ 3,915 $ 2,458 $ 21,395 $ 30,285 $ 7,446,779 $ 7,498,459 As of March 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, there were no loans in nonaccrual without an allowance for credit losses. Credit Quality Indicators The Company has developed an internal loan grading system to evaluate and quantify the Company’s loan portfolio with respect to quality and risk. The system focuses on, among other things, financial strength of borrowers, experience and depth of borrower’s management, primary and secondary sources of repayment, payment history, nature of the business and outlook on particular industries. The internal grading system enables the Company to monitor the quality of the entire loan portfolio on a consistent basis and provide management with an early warning system, enabling recognition and response to problem loans and potential problem loans. Commercial Grading System For Commercial and Industrial (“C&I”), Paycheck Protection Program (“PPP”) and Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) loans, the Company uses a grading system that relies on quantifiable and measurable characteristics when available. This includes comparison of financial strength to available industry averages, comparison of transaction factors (loan terms and conditions) to loan policy and comparison of credit history to stated repayment terms and industry averages. Some grading factors are necessarily more subjective such as economic and industry factors, regulatory environment and management. C&I and CRE loans are graded Doubtful, Substandard, Special Mention and Pass. Doubtful A Doubtful loan has a high probability of total or substantial loss, but because of specific pending events that may strengthen the asset, its classification as a loss is deferred. Doubtful borrowers are usually in default, lack adequate liquidity or capital and lack the resources necessary to remain an operating entity. Pending events can include mergers, acquisitions, liquidations, capital injections, the perfection of liens on additional collateral, the valuation of collateral and refinancing. Generally, pending events should be resolved within a relatively short period and the ratings will be adjusted based on the new information. Nonaccrual treatment is required for Doubtful assets because of the high probability of loss. Substandard Substandard loans have a high probability of payment default or they have other well-defined weaknesses. They require more intensive supervision by bank management. Substandard loans are generally characterized by current or expected unprofitable operations, inadequate debt service coverage, inadequate liquidity or marginal capitalization. Repayment may depend on collateral or other credit risk mitigants. For some Substandard loans, the likelihood of full collection of interest and principal may be in doubt and those loans should be placed on nonaccrual. Although Substandard assets in the aggregate will have a distinct potential for loss, an individual asset’s loss potential does not have to be distinct for the asset to be rated Substandard. Special Mention Special Mention loans have potential weaknesses that may, if not checked or corrected, weaken the asset or inadequately protect the Company’s position at some future date. These loans pose elevated risk, but their weakness does not yet justify a Substandard classification. Borrowers may be experiencing adverse operating trends (i.e., declining revenues or margins) or may be struggling with an ill-proportioned balance sheet (i.e., increasing inventory without an increase in sales, high leverage, tight liquidity). Adverse economic or market conditions, such as interest rate increases or the entry of a new competitor, may also support a Special Mention rating. Although a Special Mention loan has a higher probability of default than a Pass asset, its default is not imminent. Pass Loans graded as Pass encompass all loans not graded as Doubtful, Substandard or Special Mention. Pass loans are in compliance with loan covenants and payments are generally made as agreed. Pass loans range from superior quality to fair quality. Pass loans also include any portion of a government guaranteed loan, including PPP loans. Consumer and Residential Grading System Consumer and Residential loans are graded as either Nonperforming or Performing. Nonperforming Nonperforming loans are loans that are (1) over 90 days past due and interest is still accruing or (2) on nonaccrual status. Performing All loans not meeting any of the above criteria are considered Performing. The following tables illustrate the Company’s credit quality by loan class by vintage: (In thousands) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Prior Revolving Loans Amortized Cost Basis Revolving Loans Converted to Term Total As of March 31 2022 C&I By internally assigned grade: Pass $ 93,408 $ 312,325 $ 210,961 $ 108,348 $ 59,572 $ 43,397 $ 303,639 $ 2,964 $ 1,134,614 Special mention - 142 3,497 2,493 1,969 3,192 11,591 - 22,884 Substandard - 1,468 840 6,790 509 5,300 3,824 19 18,750 Doubtful - - - - - 1 - - 1 Total C&I $ 93,408 $ 313,935 $ 215,298 $ 117,631 $ 62,050 $ 51,890 $ 319,054 $ 2,983 $ 1,176,249 CRE By internally assigned grade: Pass $ 120,316 $ 486,375 $ 444,779 $ 362,644 $ 234,268 $ 660,198 $ 153,714 $ 21,009 $ 2,483,303 Special mention 616 783 815 10,766 1,122 68,783 - 1,294 84,179 Substandard - - 139 4,828 12,796 35,421 4,026 - 57,210 Doubtful - - - - - 4,718 - - 4,718 Total CRE $ 120,932 $ 487,158 $ 445,733 $ 378,238 $ 248,186 $ 769,120 $ 157,740 $ 22,303 $ 2,629,410 PPP By internally assigned grade: Pass $ - $ 49,017 $ 1,960 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 50,977 Total PPP $ - $ 49,017 $ 1,960 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 50,977 Auto By payment activity: Performing $ 140,144 $ 320,921 $ 112,646 $ 158,224 $ 83,689 $ 42,089 $ - $ - $ 857,713 Nonperforming 7 743 312 502 305 208 - - 2,077 Total auto $ 140,151 $ 321,664 $ 112,958 $ 158,726 $ 83,994 $ 42,297 $ - $ - $ 859,790 Other consumer By payment activity: Performing $ 129,573 $ 391,276 $ 138,270 $ 105,863 $ 69,913 $ 39,194 $ 19,828 $ 6 $ 893,923 Nonperforming - 294 304 185 208 217 1 19 1,228 Total other consumer $ 129,573 $ 391,570 $ 138,574 $ 106,048 $ 70,121 $ 39,411 $ 19,829 $ 25 $ 895,151 Residential By payment activity: Performing $ 72,366 $ 345,762 $ 224,010 $ 172,010 $ 171,770 $ 803,616 $ 229,871 $ 10,290 $ 2,029,695 Nonperforming - 158 724 317 1,008 6,312 17 18 8,554 Total residential $ 72,366 $ 345,920 $ 224,734 $ 172,327 $ 172,778 $ 809,928 $ 229,888 $ 10,308 $ 2,038,249 Total loans $ 556,430 $ 1,909,264 $ 1,139,257 $ 932,970 $ 637,129 $ 1,712,646 $ 726,511 $ 35,619 $ 7,649,826 (In thousands) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Prior Revolving Loans Amortized Cost Basis Revolving Loans Converted to Term Total As of December 31, 2021 C&I By internally assigned grade: Pass $ 335,685 $ 219,931 $ 114,617 $ 64,310 $ 20,137 $ 32,146 $ 280,476 $ 15,731 $ 1,083,033 Special mention 148 5,255 4,641 2,430 2,699 1,111 11,835 522 28,641 Substandard 1,482 874 7,010 187 2,582 3,272 3,512 34 18,953 Doubtful - - - 1 42 - - - 43 Total C&I $ 337,315 $ 226,060 $ 126,268 $ 66,928 $ 25,460 $ 36,529 $ 295,823 $ 16,287 $ 1,130,670 CRE By internally assigned grade: Pass $ 489,300 $ 434,866 $ 370,377 $ 236,274 $ 251,082 $ 441,310 $ 141,367 $ 43,942 $ 2,408,518 Special mention 789 826 11,235 3,544 15,379 53,372 780 420 86,345 Substandard - 77 4,539 12,934 12,424 34,563 744 - 65,281 Doubtful - - - - - 4,843 - - 4,843 Total CRE $ 490,089 $ 435,769 $ 386,151 $ 252,752 $ 278,885 $ 534,088 $ 142,891 $ 44,362 $ 2,564,987 PPP By internally assigned grade: Pass $ 92,884 $ 8,338 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 101,222 Total PPP $ 92,884 $ 8,338 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 101,222 Auto By payment activity: Performing $ 351,778 $ 129,419 $ 183,959 $ 101,441 $ 46,007 $ 12,064 $ - $ - $ 824,668 Nonperforming 305 319 457 411 266 82 - - 1,840 Total auto $ 352,083 $ 129,738 $ 184,416 $ 101,852 $ 46,273 $ 12,146 $ - $ - $ 826,508 Other consumer By payment activity: Performing $ 427,401 $ 151,300 $ 116,451 $ 78,523 $ 29,705 $ 15,660 $ 19,011 $ 1 $ 838,052 Nonperforming 216 429 249 134 238 33 18 21 1,338 Total other consumer $ 427,617 $ 151,729 $ 116,700 $ 78,657 $ 29,943 $ 15,693 $ 19,029 $ 22 $ 839,390 Residential By payment activity: Performing $ 345,338 $ 226,723 $ 179,087 $ 179,575 $ 146,611 $ 687,863 $ 246,103 $ 11,161 $ 2,022,461 Nonperforming - 1,411 643 1,072 1,534 8,522 - 39 13,221 Total residential $ 345,338 $ 228,134 $ 179,730 $ 180,647 $ 148,145 $ 696,385 $ 246,103 $ 11,200 $ 2,035,682 Total loans $ 2,045,326 $ 1,179,768 $ 993,265 $ 680,836 $ 528,706 $ 1,294,841 $ 703,846 $ 71,871 $ 7,498,459 Allowance for Credit Losses on Off-Balance Sheet Credit Exposures As of March 31, 2022, the allowance for losses on unfunded commitments totaled $4.8 million, compared to $5.1 million as of December 31, 2021. Troubled Debt Restructuring When the Company modifies a loan in a TDR, such modifications generally include one or a combination of the following: an extension of the maturity date at a stated rate of interest lower than the current market rate for new debt with similar risk; temporary reduction in the interest rate; or change in scheduled payment amount. Residential and Consumer TDRs occurring during 2022 and 2021 were due to the reduction in the interest rate or extension of the term. An allowance for impaired commercial and consumer loans that have been modified in a TDR is measured based on the present value of the expected future cash flows, discounted at the contractual interest rate of the original loan agreement, except when the sole (remaining) source of repayment for the loan is the operation or liquidation of the collateral. In these cases, management uses the current fair value of the collateral, less selling costs. If management determines that the value of the modified loan is less than the recorded investment in the loan an impairment charge would be recorded. The Company began offering loan modifications to assist borrowers during the COVID-19 national emergency. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”), along with a joint agency statement issued by banking regulatory agencies, provides that modifications made in response to COVID-19 do not need to be accounted for as a TDR. The Company evaluated the modification programs provided to its borrowers and has concluded the modifications were generally made in accordance with the CARES Act guidance to borrowers who were in good standing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and are not required to be designated as TDRs. The following tables illustrate the recorded investment and number of modifications designated as TDRs, including the recorded investment in the loans prior to a modification and the recorded investment in the loans after restructuring: Three Months Ended March 31, 2022 Three March 31 2021 (Dollars in thousands) Number of Contracts Pre-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment Post-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment Number of Contracts Pre-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment Post-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment Residential 2 $ 118 $ 124 3 $ 242 $ 252 Total TDRs 2 $ 118 $ 124 3 $ 242 $ 252 The following table illustrates the recorded investment and number of modifications for TDRs where a concession has been made and subsequently defaulted during the period: Three Months Ended March 31, 2022 Three Months Ended March 31, 2021 (Dollars in thousands) Number of Contracts Recorded Investment Number of Contracts Recorded Investment Consumer loans: Auto 1 $ 11 2 $ 18 Total consumer loans 1 $ 11 2 $ 18 Residential 20 $ 900 17 $ 624 Total TDRs 21 $ 911 19 $ 642 |