Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations |
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RFMC Willowbridge Fund, L.P. (the "Partnership") engages in the speculative trading of commodity futures contracts, options on commodities or commodity futures contracts and forward contracts ("Commodity Interests"). The objective of the Partnership is the appreciation of its assets through speculative trading. Ruvane Fund Management Corporation is the General Partner of the Partnership (the "General Partner") and Willowbridge Associates, Inc. is the Partnership's trading advisor (the "Advisor"). |
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The success of the Partnership is dependent upon the ability of the Advisor to generate trading profits through the speculative trading of Commodity Interests sufficient to produce capital appreciation after payment of all fees and expenses. Future results will depend in large part upon the Commodity Interests markets in general, the performance of its advisor, the amount of additions and redemptions and changes in interest rates. Due to the leveraged nature of the Partnership's trading activity, small price movements in Commodity Interests may result in substantial gains or losses to the Partnership. Because of the nature of these factors and their interaction, past performance is not indicative of future results. As a result, any recent increases in net realized or unrealized gains may have no bearing on any results that may be obtained in the future. |
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The Partnership incurs substantial charges from the payment of brokerage commissions to the General Partner, payment of management and incentive fees to the Advisor, payment of management fees to the General Partner and administrative expenses. The Partnership is required to make trading profits to avoid depleting and exhausting its assets from the payment of such fees and expenses. |
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The markets in which the Commodity Interests trade are constantly changing in character and in degree of volatility. Although the Advisor has been the sole advisor trading on behalf of the Partnership since April 1991, the General Partner continues to evaluate and analyze from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives the ability of the Advisor to trade effectively on the Partnership's behalf in the context of the current market environment. The General Partner seeks to limit market and credit risks by monitoring daily income and margin levels. The General Partner also relies upon the risk management strategies inherent in the Advisor's trading programs. In the future, the General Partner may utilize additional strategies or appoint additional advisors to trade on behalf of the Partnership. |
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Class A Interests paid to the General Partner a flat-rate monthly brokerage commission of approximately 0.29% of the net asset value of the Class A Interests as of the beginning of each month (a 3.5% annual rate) for the period, January 1, 2001 to July 31, 2002. Beginning August 1, 2002, the Class A Interests pay to the General Partner a flat-rate monthly brokerage commission of approximately 0.33% of the net asset value of the Class A Interests as of the beginning of each month (a 4.0% annual rate). |
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Class B Interests pay to the General Partner commissions of up to 6.0% annually of the net asset value of the Class B partners' capital. The General Partner will pay up to 3.0% from this amount to properly registered selling agents as their compensation, and to the extent the amount is less than 3.0% the brokerage fee with respect to such Class B limited partnership interests will be reduced accordingly. The General Partner pays from this amount all commission charges and fees with respect to the Partner's trading in Commodity Interests. The flat-rate monthly commission is common among programs such as the Partnership. |
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Summary of Critical Accounting Policies |
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The preparation of financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP") requires management to adopt accounting policies and make estimates and assumptions that affect amounts reported in the Partnership's financial statements. The critical accounting estimates and related judgments underlying the Partnership's financial statements are summarized below. In applying these policies, management makes judgments that frequently require estimates about matters that are inherently uncertain. The Partnership's significant accounting policies are described in detail in Note 3 of the Notes to the Condensed Financial Statements. |
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Investments in commodity futures, options and forward contracts are recorded on the trade date and open contracts are recorded in the financial statements at their fair value on the last business day of the reporting period. The difference between the original cost basis of the contract and fair value is recorded in income as a net unrealized gain or loss on open positions in the Condensed Statements of Financial Condition. Realized gains and losses on closed contracts are recorded on a first-in-first-out basis. Interest income is recognized on an accrual basis. All commodity interests and financial instruments are recorded at fair value in the financial statements. Fair value is based on quoted market prices or estimates of fair value. |
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The Partnership records all investments at fair value in its financial statements, with changes in fair value reported as a component of Trading Profits in the Condensed Statements of Income. Generally, fair values are based on quoted market prices; however, in certain circumstances, significant judgments and estimates are involved in determining fair value in the absence of an active market closing price. |
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Results of Operations |
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Comparison of the Three Months September 30, 2008 and 2007 |
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For the quarter ended September 30, 2008, the Partnership had total income comprised of net trading profits representing $8,001,052 in realized gains on closed positions, and ($1,657,272) in change in net unrealized gains on open positions, and $384,384 in interest income. For the same quarter in 2007 the Partnership had total income comprised of net trading profits representing $2,293,217 in realized gains on closed positions, and $276,698 in change in net unrealized gains on open positions, and $661,605 in interest income. |
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In July 2008, the Partnership was unprofitable. The Partnership had losses in gasoline, crude oil, copper, coffee, soybeans, soybean meal, the Swiss Franc and the British Pound; the Partnership had gains in wheat, gold and natural gas. The Partnership recorded a net loss of $7,080,207. In August 2008, the Partnership was profitable. The Partnership had gains in the Euro, the British Pound, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc and silver; the Partnership had losses in wheat, sugar and crude oil. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $8,508,765. In September 2008, the Partnership was profitable. The Partnership had gains in the Euro, the Australian Dollar, copper, US fixed income instruments and heating oil; the Partnership had losses in Japanese and European fixed income markets, gold and the Canadian Dollar. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $2,614,075. |
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In July 2007, the Partnership recorded a net loss of $550,283. Trading was unprofitable with losses in the Japanese Yen, gasoline, soybean mean and gold, and offsetting gains were made in crude oil, the Euro currency and natural gasoline. In August 2007, the Partnership recorded a net loss of $2,067,363. Trading was unprofitable in copper, crude oil, and heating oil, and there were offsetting gains in the Japanese Yen, Japanese government bonds and wheat. In September 2007, the Partnership recorded a net gain of $4,696,445. Trading was profitable in the Euro currency, crude oil, heating oil and wheat, and there were offsetting losses in natural gasoline and copper. |
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For the quarter ended September 30, 2008, the Partnership had expenses comprised of $896,062 in brokerage commissions (including clearing and exchange fees), $1,347,545 in incentive fees, $342,304 in management fees, and $99,620 in accounting and administrative fees. For the same quarter in 2007, the Partnership had expenses comprised of $723,781 in brokerage commissions (including clearing and exchange fees), $0 in incentive fees, $295,704 in management fees, and $133,236 in accounting and administrative fees. Incentive fees are a fraction of quarterly trading profits. Incentive fees are generated by quarterly profits. Brokerage commissions and management fees vary primarily as a result of change in assets under management, which are affected by net income, and capital additions and redemptions. Accounting and administrative fees consists primary of professional fees and other expenses relating to the Partnership's reporting requirements under Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. |
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As a result of the above, the Partnership recorded a net gain of $4,042,633 for the three months ended September 30, 2008, compared to a net gain of $2,078,799 for the same period in 2007. |
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At September 30, 2008, the net asset value of the Partnership was $76,633,749, compared to its net asset value of $62,981,756 at December 31, 2007. |
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During the quarter, the Partnership had no credit exposure to counterparties that are participants of foreign commodities exchanges or to counterparties dealing in over the counter contracts which is considered to be material. |
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Comparison of Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 |
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For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, the Partnership had total income comprised of net trading profits representing $24,166,638 in realized gains on closed positions, ($526,619) in change in net unrealized gains on open positions, and $1,232,288 in interest income. For the same period in 2007 the Partnership had total income comprised of net trading profits representing $5,438,577 in realized gains on closed positions, $1,641,359 in change in net unrealized gains on open positions, and $2,000,438 in interest income. |
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In January 2008, the Partnership had a small gain. The Partnership earned profits trading in silver, US fixed income instruments, the Japanese Yen and soybean oil; the Partnership generated losses in the energy markets, copper and the Euro. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $322,290. In February 2008, trading was quite profitable as the Partnership had gains in silver, soybeans and soybean oil, copper, coffee and the energy markets; the Partnership had losses in UK and US fixed income instruments and the Japanese Yen. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $7,461,150. In March 2008, trading was not profitable. The Partnership had losses in the soybean complex, gasoline, coffee and silver; the Partnership had gains in heating oil, crude oil and Japanese fixed income instruments. The Partnership recorded a net loss of $3,795,556. |
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In April 2008, the Partnership had gains in heating oil, crude oil, natural gas, European fixed income instruments, and the Australian Dollar; there were losses in the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, gold and soybean meal. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $958,138. In May 2008, the Partnership had gains in heating oil, RBOB gasoline, crude oil and Japanese and European fixed income instruments; there were losses in silver, copper, the Japanese Yen, gold, the British Pound, soybean meal and the Euro currency. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $3,253,689. In June 2008, the Partnership had gains in crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, RBOB gasoline, natural gas, heating oil and corn; there were losses in the Euro currency, wheat, copper and US fixed income instruments. The Partnership recorded a gain of $3,424,461. |
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In July 2008, the Partnership was unprofitable. The Partnership had losses in gasoline, crude oil, copper, coffee, soybeans, soybean meal, the Swiss Franc and the British Pound; the Partnership had gains in wheat, gold and natural gas. The Partnership recorded a net loss of $7,080,207. In August 2008, the Partnership was profitable. The Partnership had gains in the Euro, the British Pound, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc and silver; the Partnership had losses in wheat, sugar and crude oil. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $8,508,765. In September 2008, the Partnership was profitable. The Partnership had gains in the Euro, the Australian Dollar, copper, US fixed income instruments and heating oil; the Partnership had losses in Japanese and European fixed income markets, gold and the Canadian Dollar. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $2,614,075. |
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In January 2007, the Partnership was slightly unprofitable. The Partnership earned profits trading in copper, UK fixed income, crude oil and Japanese Yen; the Partnership generated losses in the Euro currency, coffee, natural gas and gasoline. The Partnership recorded a net loss of $169,798. In February 2007, trading was unprofitable as the Partnership had losses in Japanese Yen, UK fixed income, US fixed income and natural gas; the Partnership earned profits in soybeans, the Euro currency and gasoline. The Partnership recorded a net loss of $2,290,973. In March 2007, trading was not profitable. The Partnership had losses in silver, Japanese Yen, gold, British Pound and soybeans; the Partnership had gains in gasoline, crude oil and cocoa. The Partnership recorded a net loss of $1,659,131. In April 2007, the Partnership had gains in gasoline, the Euro currency, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen; there were losses in crude oil, natural gas and silver. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $3,227,321. In May 2007, the Partnership had gains in the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar and European fixed income instruments; there were losses in the Euro currency, heating oil and silver. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $898,624. In June 2007, the Partnership had gains in European fixed income instruments, wheat, natural gas and US Treasury Bonds; there were losses in coffee, heating oil and gasoline. The Partnership recorded a net gain of $3,597,235. In July 2007, the Partnership recorded a net loss of $550,283. Trading was unprofitable with losses in the Japanese Yen, gasoline, soybean mean and gold, and offsetting gains were made in crude oil, the Euro currency and natural gasoline. In August 2007, the Partnership recorded a net loss of $2,067,363. Trading was unprofitable in copper, crude oil, and heating oil, and there were offsetting gains in the Japanese Yen, Japanese government bonds and wheat. In September 2007, the Partnership recorded net gain of $4,696,445. Trading was profitable in the Euro currency, crude oil, heating oil and wheat, and there were offsetting losses in natural gasoline and copper. |
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For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, the Partnership had expenses comprised of $2,603,597 in brokerage commissions (including clearing and exchange fees), $5,222,269 in incentive fees, $1,013,989 in management fees, and $365,646 in accounting and administrative fees. For the same period in 2007, the Partnership had expenses comprised of $2,114,718 in brokerage commissions (including clearing and exchange fees), $0 in incentive fees, $873,736 in management fees, and $409,843 in accounting and administrative fees. Incentive fees are generated by quarterly profits. Brokerage commissions and management fees vary primarily as a result of change in assets under management, which are affected by net income, and capital additions and redemptions. Accounting and administrative fees consists primary of professional fees and other expenses relating to the Partnership's reporting requirements under Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. |
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As a result of the above, the Partnership recorded a net gain of $15,666,806 for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, as compared to a net gain of $5,682,077 for the same period in 2007. |
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Liquidity and Capital Resources |
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In general, the Advisor trades only those Commodity Interests that have sufficient liquidity to enable it to enter and close out positions without causing major price movements. Notwithstanding the foregoing, most United States commodity exchanges limit the amount by which certain commodities may move during a single day by regulations referred to as "daily price fluctuation limits" or "daily limits." Pursuant to such regulations, no trades may be executed on any given day at prices beyond daily limits the price of a futures contract occasionally has exceeded the daily limit for several consecutive days, with little or no trading, thereby effectively preventing a party from liquidating its position. While the occurrence of such an event may reduce or eliminate the liquidity of a particular market, it will not eliminate losses and may, in fact, substantially increase losses because of the inability to liquidate unfavorable positions. In addition, if there is little or no trading in a particular futures or forward contract that the Partnership is trading, whether such liquidity is caused by any the above reasons or otherwise, the Partnership may be unable to liquidate its position prior to its expiration date, thereby requiring the Partnership to make or take delivery of the underlying interests of the Commodity Interests. |
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The Partnership's capital resources are dependent upon three factors: (a) the income or losses generated by the Advisor; (b) the capital invested or redeemed by the limited partners; and (c) the capital invested or redeemed by the General Partner. The Partnership sells limited partnership units to investors from time to time in private placements pursuant to Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. As of the last day of any month, a limited partner may redeem all of its limited partnership units on 10 days' prior written notice to the General Partner. |
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The General Partner is required to contribute $1,000 to the Partnership. All capital contributions by the General Partner necessary to maintain such capital account balance are evidenced by units of general partnership interest, each of which has an initial value equal to the net asset value per unit at the time of such contribution. The General Partner may withdraw any excess above its required capital contribution without notice to the limited partners and may also contribute any greater amount to the Partnership. |
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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk. |
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The Partnership is a commodity pool engaged in the speculative trading of commodity futures contracts (including agricultural and non-agricultural commodities, currencies and financial instruments), options on commodities or commodity futures contracts, and forward contracts. The risk of market sensitive instruments is integral to the Partnership's primary business activities. The futures interests traded by the Partnership involve varying degrees of related market risk. Such market risk is often dependent upon changes in the level or volatility of interest rates, exchange rates, and/or market values of financial instruments and commodities. Fluctuations in related market risk based upon the aforementioned factors result in frequent changes in the fair value of the Partnership's open positions, and, consequently, in its earnings and cash flow. The Partnership accounts for open positions on a timely basis of market-to-market accounting principles. As such, any gain or loss in the fair value of the Partnership's open positions is directly reflected in the Partnership's earnings, whether realized or unrealized. The Partnership's total market risk is influenced by a wide variety of factors including the diversification effects among the Partnership's existing open positions, the volatility present within the markets and the liquidity of the markets. At varying times, each of these factors may act to exacerbate or mute the market risk associated with the Partnership. The following were the primary trading risk exposures of the Partnership as of September 30, 2008, by market sector: |
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Interest Rate |
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Interest rate risk is a significant market exposure of the Partnership. Interest rate movements in one country as well as relative interest rate movements between countries materially impact the Partnership's profitability. The Partnership's primary interest rate exposure is to interest rate fluctuations in the United States and the other- G-7 countries. The General Partner anticipates that G-7 interest rates will remain the primary interest rate market exposure of the Partnership for the foreseeable future. |
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Currency |
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The Partnership's currency exposure is to exchange rate fluctuations, primarily in the following countries: Germany, England, Japan, France, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and the United States of America. These fluctuations are influenced by interest rate changes as well as political and general economic conditions. The General Partner does not anticipate that the risk profile of the Partnership's currency sector will change significantly in the future. |
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Commodity |
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The Partnership's primary metals market exposure is to fluctuations in the price of gold, silver and copper. The Partnership also has commodity exposures in the price of soft commodities, which are often directly affected by severe or unexpected weather conditions. The General Partner anticipates that the Advisor will maintain an emphasis in the commodities described above. Additionally, the Partnership had exposure to the energy markets (natural gas, crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline) as of September 30, 2008, and it is anticipated that positions in this sector will continue to be evaluated on an ongoing basis. |
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The Partnership measures its market risk, related to its holdings of Commodity Interests based on changes in interest rates, foreign currency rates, and commodity prices utilizing a sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis estimates the potential change in fair values, cash flows and earnings based on a hypothetical 10% change (increase and decrease) in interest, currency and commodity prices. The Partnership used September 30, 2008 market rates and prices on its instruments to perform the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis has been prepared separately for each of the Partnership's market risk exposures (interest rate, currency rate, and commodity price) instruments. The estimates are based on the market risk sensitive portfolios described in the preceding paragraph above. The potential loss in earnings is based on an immediate change in: |
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• | The prices of the Partnership's positions resulting from a 10% change in interest rates. |
• | The U.S. dollar equivalent balances of the Partnership's currency exposures due to a 10% shift in currency exchange rates. |
• | The market value of the Partnership's Commodity Interests due to a 10% change in the price of the Commodity Instruments. The Partnership has determined that the impact of a 10% change in market rates and prices on its fair values, cash flows and earnings would not be material. The Partnership has disclosed the potential loss to earnings of its commodity price, interest rate and currency exchange rate sensitivity positions as of September 30, 2008. |
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The potential loss in earnings for each market risk exposure as of September 30, 2008 was approximately: |
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Trading portfolio: |
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