Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses | 8 - Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses The establishment of an appropriate liability for losses and loss expenses is an inherently uncertain process, and we can provide no assurance that our insurance subsidiaries’ ultimate liability will not exceed their loss and loss expense reserves and have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. For example, legislative, judicial and regulatory actions may expand coverage definitions, retroactively mandate coverage or otherwise require our insurance subsidiaries to pay losses for damages that their policies explicitly excluded or did not intend to cover. Furthermore, we cannot predict the timing, frequency and extent of adjustments to our insurance subsidiaries’ estimated future liabilities, because the historical conditions and events that serve as a basis for our insurance subsidiaries’ estimates of ultimate claim costs may change. As is the case for substantially all property and casualty insurance companies, our insurance subsidiaries have found it necessary in the past to increase their estimated future liabilities for losses and loss expenses in certain periods, and, in other periods, their estimates have exceeded their actual liabilities. Changes in our insurance subsidiaries’ estimate of their liability for losses and loss expenses generally reflect actual payments and their evaluation of information received since the prior reporting date. We summarize activity in our insurance subsidiaries’ liability for losses and loss expenses as follows: 2021 2020 2019 Balance at January 1 $ 962,007,437 $ 869,673,849 $ 814,665,224 Less reinsurance recoverable (404,818,480 ) (362,768,427 ) (339,267,525 ) Net balance at January 1 557,188,957 506,905,422 475,397,699 Incurred related to: Current year 551,917,571 472,709,060 519,319,941 Prior years (31,208,029 ) (12,944,767 ) (12,932,277 ) Total incurred 520,709,542 459,764,293 506,387,664 Paid related to: Current year 269,316,762 236,984,291 278,923,614 Prior years 182,222,742 172,496,467 195,956,327 Total paid 451,539,504 409,480,758 474,879,941 Net balance at December 31 626,358,995 557,188,957 506,905,422 Plus reinsurance recoverable 451,261,306 404,818,480 362,768,427 Balance at December 31 $ 1,077,620,301 $ 962,007,437 $ 869,673,849 Our insurance subsidiaries recognized a decrease in their liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years of $31.2 million, $12.9 million and $12.9 million in 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively. Our insurance subsidiaries made no significant changes in their reserving philosophy or claims management personnel, and they have made no significant offsetting changes in estimates that increased or decreased their loss and loss expense reserves in those years. The 2021 development represented 5.6% of the December 31, 2020 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from lower-than-expected loss emergence in the personal automobile, workers’ compensation and commercial automobile lines of business for accident years prior to 2021. The majority of the 2021 development related to decreases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and MICO. The 2020 development represented 2.6% of the December 31, 2019 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from lower-than-expected severity in the workers’ compensation and personal automobile lines of business, partially offset by higher-than-expected severity in the commercial automobile and commercial multi-peril lines of business, for accident years prior to 2020. The majority of the 2020 development related to decreases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and MICO. The 2019 development represented 2.7% of the December 31, 2018 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from lower-than-expected severity in the workers’ compensation line of business, partially offset by higher-than-expected severity in the commercial automobile and commercial multi-peril lines of business, for accident years prior to 2019. The majority of the 2019 development related to decreases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and MICO. Short-duration contracts are contracts for which our insurance subsidiaries receive premiums that they recognize as revenue over the period of the contract in proportion to the amount of insurance protection our insurance subsidiaries provide. Our insurance subsidiaries consider the policies they issue to be short-duration contracts. We consider our insurance subsidiaries’ material lines of business to be personal automobile, homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and workers’ compensation. Our insurance subsidiaries determine incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves by subtracting the cumulative loss and loss expense amounts our insurance subsidiaries have paid and the case reserves our insurance subsidiaries have established at the balance sheet date from their actuaries’ estimate of the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries’ IBNR reserves include their actuaries’ projections of the cost of unreported claims as well as their actuaries’ projected development of case reserves on known claims and reopened claims. Our insurance subsidiaries’ methodology for estimating IBNR reserves has been in place for many years, and their actuaries made no significant changes to that methodology during 2021. The actuaries for our insurance subsidiaries generally prepare an initial estimate for ultimate losses and loss expenses for the current accident year by multiplying earned premium by an “ a priori The actuaries use a variety of actuarial methods to estimate the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. These methods include paid loss development, incurred loss development and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method from which the actuaries select loss development factor assumptions. The actuaries base their selection of a point estimate on a judgmental weighting of estimates each of these methods produce. The actuaries consider loss frequency and severity trends when they develop expected loss ratios and point estimates. Loss frequency is a measure of the number of claims per unit of insured exposure, and loss severity is a measure of the average size of claims. Factors that affect loss frequency include changes in weather patterns or economic activity. Factors that affect loss severity include changes in policy limits, reinsurance retentions, inflation rates and judicial interpretations. Our insurance subsidiaries create a claim file when they receive notice of an actual demand for payment, an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when they otherwise determine that a demand for payment could potentially lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage under the same policy or another policy they have issued. In recent years, our insurance subsidiaries have noted an increase in the period of time between the occurrence of a casualty loss event and the date on which they receive notice of a liability claim. Changes in the length of time between the loss occurrence date and the claim reporting date affect the actuaries’ ability to accurately predict loss frequency and the amount of IBNR reserves our insurance subsidiaries require. Our insurance subsidiaries generally create a claim file for a policy at the claimant level by type of coverage and generally recognize one count for each claim event. In certain lines of business where it is common for multiple parties to claim damages arising from a single claim event, our insurance subsidiaries recognize one count for each claimant involved in the event. Atlantic States recognizes one count for each claim event, or claimant involved in a multiple-party claim event, related to losses Atlantic States assumes through its participation in its pooling agreement with Donegal Mutual. Our insurance subsidiaries accumulate the claim counts and report them by line of business. For purposes of the claim development tables we present below, our insurance subsidiaries count claims on policies they issue even if they eventually close such claims without making a loss payment. Claims our insurance subsidiaries close without making a loss payment typically generate loss expenses. The methods our insurance subsidiaries have used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods we report in the tables below. The following tables present information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2021, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims that our insurance subsidiaries included within their net incurred claims amounts. The tables include unaudited information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2012 through 2020, which we present as supplementary information. Personal Automobile At December 31, 2021 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2012 $ 130,415 $ 133,201 $ 135,592 $ 136,493 $ 136,552 $ 136,463 $ 136,141 $ 136,677 $ 136,648 $ 136,542 $ 98 69 2013 124,965 130,737 131,594 132,643 132,604 132,934 132,853 132,690 132,787 106 66 2014 124,426 124,806 124,210 126,200 126,779 126,734 126,861 126,977 131 71 2015 137,569 139,333 139,181 142,493 142,408 142,073 142,010 293 70 2016 150,216 153,937 157,516 157,943 156,935 156,436 728 73 2017 166,690 127,728 175,939 174,784 173,730 1,328 79 2018 186,580 183,358 181,558 180,787 3,069 81 2019 161,056 157,689 156,300 5,151 68 2020 111,483 103,585 7,372 43 2021 119,364 20,654 45 Total $ 1,428,518 Personal Automobile Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unaudited (in thousands) 2012 $ 87,517 $ 111,941 $ 124,652 $ 130,862 $ 133,428 $ 134,581 $ 135,132 $ 136,137 $ 136,165 $ 136,186 2013 84,241 109,051 120,118 125,946 130,026 131,326 131,642 132,215 132,300 2014 85,377 104,736 114,893 120,491 123,815 124,926 125,619 125,762 2015 93,611 116,303 128,395 135,027 139,121 140,028 140,892 2016 102,433 129,507 143,321 151,159 153,521 154,769 2017 111,964 142,372 159,879 166,099 169,190 2018 115,585 150,175 163,036 169,651 2019 103,101 127,187 141,004 2020 66,084 81,783 2021 76,477 Total 1,328,014 All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance 925 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 101,429 Homeowners At December 31, 2021 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2012 $ 53,962 $ 54,794 $ 54,468 $ 54,351 $ 54,281 $ 54,381 $ 54,523 $ 54,537 $ 54,548 $ 54,556 $ — 18 2013 50,887 51,121 51,122 50,874 50,988 50,971 51,008 51,064 51,053 — 13 2014 56,916 58,378 57,680 57,332 57,288 57,402 57,367 57,371 — 16 2015 63,359 63,925 63,053 63,071 63,099 62,993 63,043 19 13 2016 62,443 64,064 63,735 63,355 63,279 63,409 12 12 2017 79,283 79,911 79,305 79,247 79,065 144 17 2018 81,965 83,385 82,905 82,566 538 18 2019 73,294 73,554 73,234 912 16 2020 61,633 62,718 1,567 13 2021 67,677 6,208 11 Total $ 654,692 Homeowners Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unaudited (in thousands) 2012 $ 46,566 $ 53,619 $ 54,028 $ 54,298 $ 54,317 $ 54,356 $ 54,557 $ 54,557 $ 54,553 $ 54,560 2013 40,949 49,410 50,210 50,478 51,043 50,902 50,967 50,965 50,955 2014 45,823 56,255 56,990 57,195 56,995 57,243 57,336 57,339 2015 51,885 61,542 62,204 62,590 62,844 62,943 62,936 2016 50,125 61,145 62,760 63,144 63,162 63,217 2017 67,077 77,663 78,006 78,127 78,454 2018 70,385 79,892 80,905 81,464 2019 58,074 69,145 70,416 2020 51,226 60,348 2021 52,161 Total 631,850 All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance 118 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 22,960 Commercial Automobile At December 31, 2021 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2012 $ 26,557 $ 27,720 $ 30,606 $ 31,435 $ 31,278 $ 31,648 $ 31,803 $ 31,896 $ 31,930 $ 31,922 $ 15 8 2013 32,902 33,749 34,751 35,240 36,404 36,435 36,569 36,181 36,165 53 8 2014 42,760 44,544 47,326 48,213 49,284 49,168 49,308 49,291 91 11 2015 46,526 48,323 51,412 54,259 54,517 54,619 53,793 234 12 2016 54,302 57,353 65,905 67,127 66,894 66,085 338 13 2017 61,484 67,927 67,697 67,249 65,310 895 13 2018 79,307 81,396 82,313 83,043 2,306 15 2019 88,864 91,245 90,290 7,365 16 2020 90,367 87,766 14,996 14 2021 109,824 41,282 14 Total $ 673,489 Commercial Automobile Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unaudited (in thousands) 2012 $ 13,642 $ 20,240 $ 23,718 $ 27,417 $ 29,873 $ 30,402 $ 31,104 $ 31,228 $ 31,263 $ 31,507 2013 16,306 23,557 26,879 31,053 34,083 36,004 36,106 36,092 36,087 2014 22,707 31,089 39,436 44,374 47,290 48,418 48,603 48,714 2015 23,875 35,342 41,678 48,261 51,605 51,992 52,728 2016 27,033 38,237 48,837 57,237 60,485 64,421 2017 28,707 40,213 49,703 57,128 59,889 2018 33,862 47,941 57,451 69,487 2019 36,948 53,026 63,575 2020 31,884 46,459 2021 39,851 Total 512,718 All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance 46 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 160,817 Commercial Multi-Peril At December 31, 2021 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2012 $ 29,789 $ 30,716 $ 32,449 $ 34,117 $ 35,755 $ 36,214 $ 36,525 $ 36,876 $ 36,662 $ 36,844 $ — 6 2013 35,683 35,679 37,292 37,205 37,981 37,365 37,453 37,495 37,630 — 6 2014 48,204 50,135 51,843 52,336 53,294 53,116 52,926 52,933 79 7 2015 42,070 43,874 44,728 45,104 45,873 45,366 45,420 135 6 2016 43,005 46,988 48,267 48,871 48,732 48,823 373 6 2017 56,185 56,043 56,517 54,812 55,076 674 7 2018 66,265 66,470 67,749 67,810 3,653 7 2019 71,865 73,836 76,326 8,159 7 2020 83,195 79,910 15,880 8 2021 116,827 37,194 6 Total $ 617,599 Commercial Multi-Peril Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unaudited (in thousands) 2012 $ 16,666 $ 23,384 $ 26,634 $ 29,370 $ 33,327 $ 35,331 $ 35,909 $ 36,329 $ 36,399 $ 36,529 2013 19,875 26,216 29,159 33,614 35,104 36,321 37,333 37,436 37,488 2014 27,920 35,520 40,936 47,021 50,017 51,615 52,103 52,252 2015 21,837 29,419 34,323 39,162 42,849 44,090 44,439 2016 19,660 29,402 34,612 41,193 43,435 44,944 2017 27,399 36,926 42,691 46,361 49,488 2018 30,597 42,296 48,050 54,913 2019 28,210 41,266 47,522 2020 34,729 46,193 2021 46,768 Total 460,536 All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance 531 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 157,594 Workers’ Compensation At December 31, 2021 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2012 $ 39,142 $ 39,516 $ 38,827 $ 37,926 $ 37,163 $ 36,468 $ 35,954 $ 35,932 $ 36,014 $ 36,056 $ 39 5 2013 46,325 47,027 44,289 42,828 42,327 42,555 42,651 42,341 42,427 70 6 2014 51,508 51,553 49,288 48,537 47,540 47,693 47,849 47,620 68 6 2015 53,332 49,615 45,991 44,986 43,006 42,597 42,225 328 5 2016 58,814 49,802 47,883 44,969 44,098 43,559 532 5 2017 60,450 56,351 52,687 51,464 49,557 1,461 5 2018 62,197 55,291 52,514 47,912 2,171 6 2019 60,998 59,624 57,728 3,474 6 2020 57,172 57,850 5,494 5 2021 67,035 21,111 6 Total $ 491,969 Workers’ Compensation Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unaudited (in thousands) 2012 $ 11,097 $ 22,963 $ 28,812 $ 31,244 $ 33,196 $ 34,177 $ 34,460 $ 34,622 $ 34,691 $ 34,973 2013 13,052 26,043 32,783 36,351 38,877 39,617 40,361 40,827 41,209 2014 13,932 28,513 36,284 40,393 42,465 43,866 44,403 44,671 2015 13,071 27,531 34,192 36,929 37,936 38,596 39,096 2016 14,709 30,344 37,178 40,570 41,208 41,543 2017 15,581 31,990 39,684 42,954 44,242 2018 17,644 31,928 37,072 41,611 2019 16,939 33,009 41,740 2020 14,591 32,817 2021 20,931 Total 382,833 All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance 4,643 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 113,779 The following table presents a reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for claims and claims adjustment expenses in our consolidated balance sheet: At December 31, (in thousands) 2021 Net outstanding liabilities: Personal automobile $ 101,429 Homeowners 22,960 Commercial automobile 160,817 Commercial multi-peril 157,593 Workers ’ 113,779 Other 24,953 581,531 Reinsurance recoverable: Personal automobile $ 110,925 Homeowners 13,200 Commercial automobile 107,037 Commercial multi-peril 98,848 Workers ’ 92,352 Other 6,616 428,978 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses $ 67,111 Gross liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses $ 1,077,620 The following table presents supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2021: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Personal automobile 64.8 % 16.9 % 8.6 % 4.3 % 2.3 % 0.8 % 0.4 % 0.4 % — % — % Homeowners 81.5 15.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 — — — Commercial automobile 41.7 18.3 12.8 12.0 6.2 3.2 1.1 0.2 — 0.8 Commercial multi-peril 45.4 16.9 9.4 10.2 6.5 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 Workers’ compensation 31.0 31.8 15.2 7.7 3.7 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.8 |