Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses | 8 - Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses The establishment of an appropriate liability for losses and loss expenses is an inherently uncertain process, and we can provide no assurance that our insurance subsidiaries’ ultimate liability will not exceed their loss and loss expense reserves and have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, we cannot predict the timing, frequency and extent of adjustments to our insurance subsidiaries’ estimated future liabilities, because the historical conditions and events that serve as a basis for our insurance subsidiaries’ estimates of ultimate claim costs may change. As is the case for substantially all property and casualty insurance companies, our insurance subsidiaries have found it necessary in the past to increase their estimated future liabilities for losses and loss expenses in certain periods, and, in other periods, their estimates have exceeded their actual liabilities. Changes in our insurance subsidiaries’ estimate of their liability for losses and loss expenses generally reflect actual payments and their evaluation of information received since the prior reporting date. We summarize activity in our insurance subsidiaries’ liability for losses and loss expenses as follows: 2017 2016 2015 Balance at January 1 $ 606,664,590 $ 578,205,109 $ 538,258,406 Less reinsurance recoverable (259,147,147 ) (256,150,860 ) (245,957,364 ) Net balance at January 1 347,517,443 322,054,249 292,301,042 Incurred related to: Current year 480,646,641 420,327,164 391,166,740 Prior years 6,621,413 2,988,739 7,200,134 Total incurred 487,268,054 423,315,903 398,366,874 Paid related to: Current year 288,379,600 248,106,788 236,834,666 Prior years 163,005,427 149,745,921 131,779,001 Total paid 451,385,027 397,852,709 368,613,667 Net balance at December 31 383,400,470 347,517,443 322,054,249 Plus reinsurance recoverable 293,271,257 259,147,147 256,150,860 Balance at December 31 $ 676,671,727 $ 606,664,590 $ 578,205,109 Our insurance subsidiaries recognized an increase in their liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years of $6.6 million, $3.0 million and $7.2 million in 2017, 2016 and 2015, respectively. Our insurance subsidiaries made no significant changes in their reserving philosophy, key reserving assumptions or claims management personnel, and they have made no significant offsetting changes in estimates that increased or decreased their loss and loss expense reserves in those years. The 2017 development represented 1.9% of the December 31, 2016 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from higher-than-expected severity in the commercial multiple peril, personal automobile and commercial automobile lines of business, offset by lower-than-expected severity in the workers’ compensation line of business, in accident years prior to 2017. The majority of the 2017 development related to increases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and Peninsula. The 2016 development represented 0.9% of the December 31, 2015 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from higher-than-expected severity in the commercial multiple peril and commercial automobile liability lines of business, offset by lower-than-expected severity in the workers’ compensation line of business, in accident years prior to 2016. The majority of the 2016 development related to increases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and Southern. The 2015 development represented 2.5% of the December 31, 2014 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from higher-than-expected severity in the private passenger automobile liability, commercial multiple peril and commercial automobile lines of business in accident years prior to 2015. The majority of the 2015 development related to increases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and Southern. Short-duration contracts are contracts for which our insurance subsidiaries receive premiums that they recognize as revenue over the period of the contract in proportion to the amount of insurance protection our insurance subsidiaries provide. Our insurance subsidiaries consider the policies they issue to be short-duration contracts. We consider our insurance subsidiaries’ material lines of business to be personal automobile, homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and workers’ compensation. Our insurance subsidiaries determine incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves by subtracting the cumulative loss and loss expense amounts our insurance subsidiaries have paid and the case reserves our insurance subsidiaries have established at the balance sheet date from their actuaries’ estimate of the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries’ IBNR reserves include their actuaries’ projections of the cost of unreported claims as well as their actuaries’ projected development of case reserves on known claims and reopened claims. Our insurance subsidiaries’ methodology for estimating IBNR reserves has been in place for many years, and their actuaries made no significant changes to that methodology during 2017. The actuaries for our insurance subsidiaries generally prepare an initial estimate for ultimate losses and loss expenses for the current accident year by multiplying earned premium by an expected loss ratio for each line of business our insurance subsidiaries write. Expected loss ratios represent the actuaries’ expectation of losses at the time our insurance subsidiaries price and write their policies, before the emergence of any actual claims experience. The actuaries determine an expected loss ratio by analyzing historical experience and adjusting for loss cost trends, loss frequency and severity trends, premium rate level changes, reported and paid loss emergence patterns and other known or observed factors. The actuaries use a variety of actuarial methods to estimate the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. These methods include paid loss development, incurred loss development and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. The actuaries base their selection of a point estimate on a judgmental weighting of estimates each of these methods produce. The actuaries consider loss frequency and severity trends when they develop expected loss ratios and point estimates. Loss frequency is a measure of the number of claims per unit of insured exposure, and loss severity is a measure of the average size of claims. Factors that affect loss frequency include changes in weather patterns or economic activity. Factors that affect loss severity include changes in policy limits, reinsurance retentions, inflation rates and judicial interpretations. Our insurance subsidiaries create a claim file when they receive notice of an actual demand for payment, an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when they otherwise determine that a demand for payment could potentially lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage under the same policy or another policy they have issued. In recent years, our insurance subsidiaries have noted an increase in the period of time between the occurrence of a casualty loss event and the date on which they receive notice of a liability claim. Changes in the length of time between the loss occurrence date and the claim reporting date affect the actuaries’ ability to accurately predict loss frequency and the amount of IBNR reserves our insurance subsidiaries require. Our insurance subsidiaries generally create a claim file for a policy at the claimant level by type of coverage and generally recognize one count for each claim event. In certain lines of business where it is common for multiple parties to claim damages arising from a single claim event, our insurance subsidiaries recognize one count for each claimant involved in the event. Atlantic States recognizes one count for each claim event, or claimant involved in a multiple-party claim event, related to losses Atlantic States assumes through its participation in its pooling agreement with Donegal Mutual. Our insurance subsidiaries accumulate the claim counts and report them by line of business. For purposes of the claim development tables we present below, our insurance subsidiaries count claims on policies they issue even if they eventually close such claims without making a loss payment. Claims our insurance subsidiaries close without making a loss payment typically generate loss expenses. The methods our insurance subsidiaries have used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods we report in the tables below. The following tables present information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2017, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims that our insurance subsidiaries included within their net incurred claims amounts. The tables include unaudited information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2008 through 2016, which we present as supplementary information. We present amounts retrospectively for MICO, which we acquired in December 2010, for all accident years prior to 2010. Personal Automobile At December 31, 2017 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 98,139 $ 101,937 $ 100,782 $ 101,388 $ 101,119 $ 100,819 $ 100,984 $ 100,923 $ 100,918 $ 100,915 $ 9 61 2009 105,707 106,313 106,841 107,589 107,190 106,705 106,549 106,499 106,713 15 65 2010 117,967 117,552 118,562 118,876 118,916 118,587 118,385 118,289 45 70 2011 127,929 131,678 132,987 133,229 133,617 133,218 133,145 97 74 2012 130,415 133,201 135,592 136,493 136,552 136,463 249 69 2013 124,965 130,737 131,594 132,643 132,604 438 66 2014 124,426 124,806 124,210 126,200 905 71 2015 137,569 139,334 139,181 2,713 70 2016 150,215 153,937 7,327 73 2017 166,690 26,640 77 Total $ 1,314,137 Personal Automobile Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 66,648 $ 85,262 $ 93,325 $ 97,134 $ 99,110 $ 100,153 $ 100,642 $ 100,712 $ 100,778 $ 100,790 2009 69,585 89,089 97,349 102,332 104,779 105,577 105,922 106,017 106,477 2010 75,889 96,749 107,662 113,243 116,748 117,812 117,978 118,054 2011 87,191 110,249 121,621 127,545 131,319 132,479 132,714 2012 87,517 111,941 124,652 130,862 133,428 134,581 2013 84,241 109,051 120,118 125,946 130,026 2014 85,377 104,736 114,893 120,491 2015 93,611 116,303 128,395 2016 102,433 129,507 2017 111,964 Total 1,212,999 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of reinsurance 540 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of $ 101,678 Homeowners At December 31, 2017 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total IBNR Plus Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 40,989 $ 42,790 $ 42,944 $ 42,700 $ 42,839 $ 42,897 $ 42,862 $ 42,852 $ 42,844 $ 42,833 $ — 18 2009 51,054 50,621 50,333 49,998 50,137 50,405 50,419 50,433 50,435 — 18 2010 60,315 60,729 60,248 59,972 60,355 60,440 60,443 60,542 — 25 2011 71,256 70,461 70,436 70,381 70,297 70,351 70,479 (3 ) 27 2012 53,962 54,794 54,468 54,351 54,281 54,381 44 19 2013 50,887 51,121 51,122 50,874 50,988 47 13 2014 56,916 58,378 57,680 57,332 6 18 2015 63,359 63,925 63,053 157 14 2016 62,443 64,064 833 13 2017 79,283 4,166 17 Total $ 593,390 Homeowners Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 32,548 $ 40,037 $ 41,582 $ 42,095 $ 42,511 $ 42,699 $ 42,797 $ 42,817 $ 42,812 $ 42,833 2009 39,961 49,180 49,827 50,021 50,301 50,430 50,429 50,433 50,435 2010 47,419 57,334 59,283 59,875 60,239 60,486 60,501 60,525 2011 57,588 69,345 70,125 70,351 70,541 70,626 70,648 2012 46,566 53,619 54,028 54,298 54,317 54,356 2013 40,949 49,410 50,210 50,478 51,043 2014 45,823 56,255 56,990 57,195 2015 51,885 61,542 62,204 2016 50,125 61,145 2017 67,077 Total 577,461 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of 15 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, $ 15,944 Commercial Automobile At December 31, 2017 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 18,164 $ 17,889 $ 17,719 $ 17,941 $ 17,960 $ 18,158 $ 18,063 $ 18,054 $ 18,051 $ 18,049 $ — 6 2009 18,735 18,549 18,998 19,015 19,346 19,569 19,430 19,461 19,449 3 6 2010 19,315 19,913 20,695 21,477 21,490 21,756 21,746 21,713 5 7 2011 26,642 27,157 28,570 28,893 29,112 29,107 29,487 1 9 2012 26,557 27,720 30,606 31,435 31,278 31,648 12 8 2013 32,902 33,749 34,751 35,240 36,404 196 9 2014 42,760 44,544 47,326 48,213 747 11 2015 46,526 48,323 51,412 2,639 12 2016 54,302 57,353 4,793 13 2017 61,484 17,554 13 Total $ 375,212 Commercial Automobile Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 9,204 $ 12,330 $ 14,115 $ 16,077 $ 17,110 $ 17,548 $ 18,052 $ 18,051 $ 18,051 $ 18,049 2009 9,309 12,872 15,479 17,160 18,696 19,389 19,386 19,408 19,413 2010 10,778 14,180 16,426 19,030 20,804 21,014 21,482 21,549 2011 13,876 19,106 24,267 26,973 28,014 28,758 28,836 2012 13,642 20,240 23,718 27,417 29,873 30,402 2013 16,306 23,557 26,879 31,053 34,083 2014 22,707 31,089 39,436 44,374 2015 23,875 35,342 41,678 2016 27,033 38,237 2017 28,707 Total 305,328 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of 10 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, $ 69,894 Commercial Multi-Peril At December 31, 2017 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 26,868 $ 27,693 $ 26,796 $ 26,906 $ 27,286 $ 27,023 $ 27,182 $ 27,258 $ 27,184 $ 26,998 $ — 5 2009 26,712 26,454 27,357 27,357 27,739 27,959 27,625 27,484 27,508 — 6 2010 28,745 29,656 29,390 29,169 29,373 29,453 29,463 29,779 — 6 2011 33,054 35,411 35,942 37,576 37,385 38,270 38,105 13 7 2012 29,789 30,716 32,449 34,117 35,755 36,214 33 6 2013 35,683 35,679 37,292 37,205 37,981 155 6 2014 48,204 50,135 51,843 52,336 608 7 2015 42,070 43,874 44,728 3,028 6 2016 43,005 46,988 4,991 6 2017 56,185 13,847 6 Total $ 396,822 Commercial Multi-Peril Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 16,128 $ 21,645 $ 22,991 $ 24,161 $ 25,154 $ 25,983 $ 26,760 $ 26,956 $ 27,017 $ 26,996 2009 13,675 19,356 21,560 24,977 26,212 26,780 27,287 27,357 27,409 2010 17,007 22,017 24,749 26,832 27,768 28,681 28,906 29,632 2011 18,773 24,767 30,286 33,526 36,722 37,759 38,240 2012 16,666 23,384 26,634 29,370 33,327 35,331 2013 19,875 26,216 29,159 33,614 35,104 2014 27,920 35,520 40,936 47,021 2015 21,837 29,419 34,323 2016 19,660 29,402 2017 27,399 Total 330,857 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of reinsurance 266 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 66,231 Workers’ Compensation At December 31, 2017 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total IBNR Plus Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 24,034 $ 26,361 $ 27,037 $ 26,791 $ 26,471 $ 26,226 $ 25,941 $ 25,963 $ 25,713 $ 25,797 $ 61 5 2009 21,571 22,497 21,894 21,826 22,848 22,278 22,172 22,114 22,079 65 4 2010 27,304 27,859 27,010 26,637 26,944 27,121 27,037 26,984 98 5 2011 32,490 35,757 36,614 36,369 35,670 35,039 35,194 138 6 2012 39,142 39,516 38,827 37,926 37,163 36,468 211 6 2013 46,325 47,027 44,289 42,828 42,327 447 6 2014 51,508 51,553 49,288 48,537 996 6 2015 53,332 49,615 45,991 2,470 6 2016 58,814 49,802 6,741 6 2017 60,450 21,116 6 Total $ 393,629 Workers’ Compensation Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unaudited (in thousands) 2008 $ 6,562 $ 14,776 $ 19,199 $ 21,933 $ 23,782 $ 24,551 $ 24,880 $ 25,017 $ 25,112 $ 25,250 2009 6,490 12,627 16,516 18,329 19,665 20,476 20,939 21,117 21,400 2010 8,066 15,937 21,176 23,137 24,539 25,337 25,804 26,050 2011 9,157 21,450 27,517 31,905 32,394 33,067 33,577 2012 11,097 22,963 28,812 31,244 33,196 34,177 2013 13,052 26,043 32,783 36,351 38,877 2014 13,932 28,513 36,284 40,393 2015 13,071 27,531 34,192 2016 14,709 30,344 2017 15,581 Total 299,841 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of 3,445 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, $ 97,233 The following table presents a reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for claims and claims adjustment expenses in our consolidated balance sheet: (in thousands) At December 31, Net outstanding liabilities: Personal automobile $ 101,678 Homeowners 15,944 Commercial automobile 69,894 Commercial multi-peril 66,231 Workers ’ 97,233 Other 5,404 356,384 Reinsurance recoverable: Personal automobile $ 94,091 Homeowners 11,465 Commercial automobile 45,201 Commercial multi-peril 40,685 Workers ’ 85,528 Other 3,831 280,801 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses $ 39,487 Gross liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses $ 676,672 The following table presents supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2017: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Personal automobile 65.7 % 17.5 % 8.5 % 4.4 % 2.5 % 0.9 % 0.3 % 0.1 % 0.2 % — % Homeowners 80.6 16.6 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 — — — Commercial automobile 47.1 18.8 12.6 10.6 6.9 2.2 1.3 0.1 — — Commercial multi-peril 50.7 17.9 9.3 9.0 5.8 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.2 — Workers’ compensation 28.4 31.1 16.7 8.9 5.2 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 |