 | NEWS RELEASE | ||
| The Progressive Corporation | Company Contact: | ||
| 6300 Wilson Mills Road | Matt Downing | ||
| Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 | (440) 395-4222 | ||
PROGRESSIVE REPORTS NOVEMBER RESULTS
MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- December 10, 2014 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for November 2014:
| (millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited) | November | November | Change | |||||||
| 2014 | 2013 | |||||||||
| Net premiums written | $ | 1,298.9 | $ | 1,194.8 | 9 | % | ||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 1,414.1 | $ | 1,337.7 | 6 | % | ||||
| Net income | $ | 82.0 | $ | 97.6 | (16) | % | ||||
| Per share | $ | .14 | $ | .16 | (14) | % | ||||
| Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities | ||||||||||
| (including net impairment losses) | $ | (2.8 | ) | $ | 46.0 | (106) | % | |||
| Combined ratio | 92.9 | 94.7 | (1.8) pts. | |||||||
| Average diluted equivalent shares | 591.6 | 603.0 | (2) | % | ||||||
| (thousands; unaudited) | November | November | Change | ||
| 2014 | 2013 | ||||
Policies in Force: | |||||
| Agency – auto | 4,757.1 | 4,855.7 | (2) % | ||
| Direct – auto | 4,501.9 | 4,221.3 | 7 % | ||
| Total personal auto | 9,259.0 | 9,077.0 | 2 % | ||
| Total special lines | 4,047.3 | 4,004.8 | 1 % | ||
| Total Personal Lines | 13,306.3 | 13,081.8 | 2 % | ||
| Total Commercial Lines | 517.5 | 519.3 | 0 % | ||
Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Lines business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for autos and trucks owned and/or operated predominately by small businesses.
See the “Comprehensive Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and the "Monthly Commentary" at the end of this release for additional discussion.
- 1 -
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT
November 2014
(millions)
(unaudited)
| Current Month | Comments on Monthly Results1 | ||||
| Net premiums written | $ | 1,298.9 | |||
| Revenues: | |||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 1,414.1 | |||
| Investment income | 35.6 | ||||
| Net realized gains (losses) on securities: | |||||
| Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) losses: | |||||
| Total OTTI losses | (7.8 | ) | |||
| Non-credit losses, net of credit losses recognized | |||||
| on previously recorded non-credit OTTI losses | 0 | ||||
| Net impairment losses recognized in earnings | (7.8 | ) | |||
| Net realized gains (losses) on securities | 5.0 | ||||
| Total net realized gains (losses) on securities | (2.8 | ) | |||
| Fees and other revenues | 22.5 | ||||
| Service revenues | 5.6 | ||||
| Total revenues | 1,475.0 | ||||
| Expenses: | |||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 1,038.7 | ||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 115.8 | ||||
| Other underwriting expenses | 182.2 | ||||
| Investment expenses | 1.3 | ||||
| Service expenses | 5.1 | ||||
| Interest expense | 10.0 | ||||
| Total expenses | 1,353.1 | ||||
| Income before income taxes | 121.9 | ||||
| Provision for income taxes | 39.9 | ||||
| Net income | 82.0 | ||||
| Other comprehensive income, net of tax: | |||||
| Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities: | |||||
| Net non-credit related OTTI losses, adjusted for | |||||
| valuation changes | 0 | ||||
| Other net unrealized gains (losses) on securities | 35.0 | ||||
| Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities | 35.0 | ||||
| Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions | (.1 | ) | |||
| Foreign currency translation adjustment | (.1 | ) | |||
| Other comprehensive income | 34.8 | ||||
| Total comprehensive income | $ | 116.8 | |||
1For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2013 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2013 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.
- 2 -
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS
November 2014
(millions)
(unaudited)
| Year-to-Date | |||||||||
| 2014 | 2013 | % Change | |||||||
| Net premiums written | $ | 17,085.7 | $ | 16,145.7 | 6 | ||||
| Revenues: | |||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 16,628.6 | $ | 15,763.6 | 5 | ||||
| Investment income | 370.6 | 382.0 | (3) | ||||||
| Net realized gains (losses) on securities: | |||||||||
| Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) losses: | |||||||||
| Total OTTI losses | (7.9 | ) | (3.6 | ) | 119 | ||||
| Non-credit losses, net of credit losses recognized | |||||||||
on previously recorded non-credit OTTI losses1 | 0 | (.1 | ) | (100) | |||||
| Net impairment losses recognized in earnings | (7.9 | ) | (3.7 | ) | 114 | ||||
| Net realized gains (losses) on securities | 209.5 | 295.9 | (29) | ||||||
| Total net realized gains (losses) on securities | 201.6 | 292.2 | (31) | ||||||
| Fees and other revenues | 276.1 | 269.8 | 2 | ||||||
| Service revenues | 50.1 | 36.6 | 37 | ||||||
| Gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt | (4.8 | ) | (4.3 | ) | 12 | ||||
| Total revenues | 17,522.2 | 16,739.9 | 5 | ||||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 12,090.5 | 11,450.5 | 6 | ||||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 1,379.6 | 1,338.9 | 3 | ||||||
| Other underwriting expenses | 2,246.5 | 2,178.6 | 3 | ||||||
| Investment expenses | 17.1 | 17.6 | (3) | ||||||
| Service expenses | 46.5 | 36.4 | 28 | ||||||
| Interest expense | 107.0 | 109.3 | (2) | ||||||
| Total expenses | 15,887.2 | 15,131.3 | 5 | ||||||
| Income before income taxes | 1,635.0 | 1,608.6 | 2 | ||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 541.6 | 533.1 | 2 | ||||||
| Net income | 1,093.4 | 1,075.5 | 2 | ||||||
| Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax: | |||||||||
| Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities: | |||||||||
| Net non-credit related OTTI losses, adjusted for | |||||||||
| valuation changes | 0 | .3 | (100) | ||||||
| Other net unrealized gains (losses) on securities | 113.1 | 101.7 | 11 | ||||||
| Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities | 113.1 | 102.0 | 11 | ||||||
| Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions | (2.5 | ) | (1.8 | ) | 39 | ||||
| Foreign currency translation adjustment | (.3 | ) | (1.1 | ) | (73) | ||||
| Other comprehensive income | 110.3 | 99.1 | 11 | ||||||
| Total comprehensive income | $ | 1,203.7 | $ | 1,174.6 | 2 | ||||
1A negative amount for the period reflects credit losses reclassified from other comprehensive income, which exceeded the amount of non-credit OTTI losses recognized in other comprehensive income during the period.
- 3 -
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE
&
INVESTMENT RESULTS
November 2014
(millions – except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
| The following table sets forth the computation of net income per share and comprehensive income per share: | ||||||||||||
| Current | Year-to-Date | |||||||||||
| Month | 2014 | 2013 | ||||||||||
| Net income | $ | 82.0 | $ | 1,093.4 | $ | 1,075.5 | ||||||
| Per share: | ||||||||||||
| Basic | $ | .14 | $ | 1.85 | $ | 1.79 | ||||||
| Diluted | $ | .14 | $ | 1.84 | $ | 1.78 | ||||||
| Comprehensive income | $ | 116.8 | $ | 1,203.7 | $ | 1,174.6 | ||||||
| Per share: | ||||||||||||
| Diluted | $ | .20 | $ | 2.02 | $ | 1.95 | ||||||
| Average shares outstanding - Basic | 587.1 | 590.9 | 599.4 | |||||||||
| Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | |||||||||
| Total equivalent shares - Diluted | 591.6 | 595.1 | 603.8 | |||||||||
| The following table sets forth the investment results for the period: | |||||||
| Current | Year-to-Date | ||||||
| Month | 2014 | 2013 | |||||
| Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return: | |||||||
| Fixed-income securities | .2% | 3.3% | 1.8 % | ||||
| Common stocks | 2.2% | 12.7 % | 29.5 % | ||||
| Total portfolio | .5% | 4.4 % | 5.2 % | ||||
| Pretax annualized investment income book yield | 2.4 % | 2.4 % | 2.6 % | ||||
- 4 -
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
November 2014
($ in millions)
(unaudited)
| Current Month | ||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial | ||||||||||||||||||
| Personal Lines Business | Lines | Other | Companywide | |||||||||||||||
| Agency | Direct | Total | Business | Businesses1 | Total | |||||||||||||
| Net Premiums Written | $ | 631.0 | $ | 537.8 | $ | 1,168.8 | $ | 130.1 | $ | 0 | $ | 1,298.9 | ||||||
| % Growth in NPW | 4 | % | 13 | % | 8 | % | 15 | % | NM | 9 | % | |||||||
| Net Premiums Earned | $ | 688.4 | $ | 583.3 | $ | 1,271.7 | $ | 142.4 | $ | 0 | $ | 1,414.1 | ||||||
| % Growth in NPE | 3 | % | 10 | % | 6 | % | 4 | % | NM | 6 | % | |||||||
| GAAP Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss/LAE ratio | 73.9 | 77.4 | 75.5 | 53.6 | NM | 73.4 | ||||||||||||
| Expense ratio | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.1 | NM | 19.5 | ||||||||||||
| Combined ratio | 93.4 | 96.9 | 95.0 | 72.7 | NM | 92.9 | ||||||||||||
Actuarial Adjustments2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Reserve Decrease/(Increase) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Prior accident years | $ | 23.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Current accident year | (23.5 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
| Calendar year actuarial adjustment | $ | (1.4 | ) | $ | (.9 | ) | $ | (2.3 | ) | $ | 2.0 | $ | 0 | $ | (.3 | ) | ||
| Prior Accident Years Development | ||||||||||||||||||
| Favorable/(Unfavorable) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Actuarial adjustment | $ | 23.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| All other development | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total development | $ | 35.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Calendar year loss/LAE ratio | 73.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident year loss/LAE ratio | 75.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Statutory Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss/LAE ratio | 73.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Expense ratio | 20.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Combined ratio | 93.6 | |||||||||||||||||
1 The other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $2.8 million for the month. Combined ratios and % growth are not meaningful (NM) due to the low level of premiums earned by, and the variability of loss costs in, such businesses.
2 Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.
- 5 -
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
November 2014
($ in millions)
(unaudited)
| Year-to-Date | ||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial | ||||||||||||||||||
| Personal Lines Business | Lines | Other | Companywide | |||||||||||||||
| Agency | Direct | Total | Business | Businesses1 | Total | |||||||||||||
| Net Premiums Written | $ | 8,346.4 | $ | 6,993.3 | $ | 15,339.7 | $ | 1,746.0 | $ | 0 | $ | 17,085.7 | ||||||
| % Growth in NPW | 3 | % | 9 | % | 6 | % | 5 | % | NM | 6 | % | |||||||
| Net Premiums Earned | $ | 8,228.3 | $ | 6,740.9 | $ | 14,969.2 | $ | 1,659.4 | $ | 0 | $ | 16,628.6 | ||||||
| % Growth in NPE | 4 | % | 9 | % | 6 | % | 2 | % | NM | 5 | % | |||||||
| GAAP Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss/LAE ratio | 73.3 | 74.4 | 73.8 | 62.3 | NM | 72.7 | ||||||||||||
| Expense ratio | 19.7 | 20.4 | 20.0 | 21.3 | NM | 20.2 | ||||||||||||
| Combined ratio | 93.0 | 94.8 | 93.8 | 83.6 | NM | 92.9 | ||||||||||||
Actuarial Adjustments2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Reserve Decrease/(Increase) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Prior accident years | $ | 86.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Current accident year | (71.2 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
| Calendar year actuarial adjustment | $ | (11.5 | ) | $ | 2.5 | $ | (9.0 | ) | $ | 24.2 | $ | 0 | $ | 15.2 | ||||
| Prior Accident Years Development | ||||||||||||||||||
| Favorable/(Unfavorable) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Actuarial adjustment | $ | 86.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| All other development | (73.2 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
| Total development | $ | 13.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Calendar year loss/LAE ratio | 72.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Accident year loss/LAE ratio | 72.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Statutory Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss/LAE ratio | 72.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Expense ratio | 19.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Combined ratio | 92.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Statutory Surplus3 | $ | 6,649.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| NM = Not Meaningful | ||||||||||||||||||
1 Year to date, the other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $8.3 million.
2 Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.
3 During November 2014, our insurance subsidiaries declared $169.4 million in dividends to the parent holding company; these dividends will be paid in December.
- 6 -
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions - except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
| November | |||
| 2014 | |||
| CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET: | |||
Investments – Available-for-sale, at fair value: | |||
Fixed maturities1 (amortized cost: $13,527.7) | $ | 13,742.3 | |
| Equity securities: | |||
Nonredeemable preferred stocks1(cost: $577.5) | 803.3 | ||
| Common equities (cost: $1,276.0) | 2,489.5 | ||
| Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,333.9) | 2,333.9 | ||
Total investments2 | 19,369.0 | ||
| Net premiums receivable | 3,644.6 | ||
| Deferred acquisition costs | 476.4 | ||
Other assets3 | 2,704.5 | ||
| Total assets | $ | 26,194.5 | |
| Unearned premiums | $ | 5,645.6 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves3 | 8,846.7 | ||
Other liabilities2 | 2,358.8 | ||
| Debt | 2,164.6 | ||
| Shareholders' equity | 7,178.8 | ||
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | $ | 26,194.5 | |
| Common shares outstanding | 587.8 | ||
| Shares repurchased - November | 0 | ||
| Average cost per share | $ | 0 | |
| Book value per share | $ | 12.21 | |
| Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders' equity | |||
| Net income | 17.7 | % | |
| Comprehensive income | 19.1 | % | |
| Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on investments | $ | 1,630.9 | |
| Increase (decrease) from October 2014 | $ | 53.8 | |
| Increase (decrease) from December 2013 | $ | 174.0 | |
| Debt-to-total capital ratio | 23.2 | % | |
| Fixed-income portfolio duration | 1.6 years | ||
| Weighted average credit quality | A+ | ||
| Year-to-date Gainshare factor | 1.31 | ||
1 As of November 30, 2014, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $23.0 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.
2 At November 30, 2014, we had $142.1 million of net unsettled security transactions, including collateral on open derivative positions.
3 Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $1,178.7 million, which are included in "other assets."
- 7 -
Monthly Commentary
| • | The favorable prior accident years development for November primarily reflects actuarial adjustments made to reflect lower than originally anticipated settlements in our personal auto and Commercial Lines bodily injury claims, mainly related to accident years 2012 and 2013. Actuarial adjustments on the current accident year were increased during the month to reflect rising bodily injury severity trends. |
Events
We plan to release December results on Wednesday, January 28, 2015, before the market opens.
Pursuant to our accounting calendar for 2014, the fourth quarter will have 14 weeks of activity with December being a 5-week month. Progressive operates on an accounting calendar that typically consists of a 52-week year, with 13-week quarters, and a 4-week December. Under this calendar, we periodically recognize an additional week of activity, as is the case for 2014. Consequently, our 2014, fourth quarter, and December periods will each include an additional week, which will affect comparisons of those periods to prior years.
About Progressive
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach it whenever, wherever, and however it’s most convenient—online at http://www.progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, on a mobile device or in-person with a local agent.
Progressive offers insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats and recreational vehicles, as well as home insurance from select carriers. It’s the fourth largest auto insurer in the country, the largest seller of motorcycle insurance, and a leader in commercial auto insurance. Progressive also offers car insurance online in Australia at http://www.progressiveonline.com.au.
Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and Service Centers.
The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.
- 8 -
Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the possible failure of one or more governmental, corporate, or other entities to make scheduled debt payments or satisfy other obligations; the potential or actual downgrading by one or more rating agencies of our securities or governmental, corporate, or other securities we hold; the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including counterparties to certain financial transactions; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to attract and retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments at the state and federal levels, including, but not limited to, health care reform and tax law changes; the outcome of disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation or governmental investigations that may be pending or filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail, and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns; our ability to accurately recognize and appropriately respond in a timely manner to changes in frequency and severity trends; technological advances; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions, and safeguard personal and sensitive information in our possession; our continued access to and functionality of third-party systems that are critical to our business; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.
- 9 -