The Progressive Corporation (PGR) 8-K Progressive Reports February Results

Exhibit 99

NEWS RELEASE

The Progressive Corporation	Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road	Patrick Brennan
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143	(440) 395-2370
http://www.progressive.com

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS FEBRUARY RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — March 11, 2009 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for February 2009:

(millions, except per share amounts and ratios)	February     2009		February     2008		Change
Net premiums written	$	1,123.0	$	1,102.2	2%
Net premiums earned	$	1,048.3	$	1,042.5	1%
Net income	$	125.7	$	46.2	172%
Per share	$	.19	$	.07	174%
Pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities	$	43.2	$	8.5	408%
Combined ratio		89.2		98.2	(9.0) pts.
Average diluted equivalent shares		671.8		677.6	(1)%

(in thousands)	February     2009	February     2008	Change
Policies in Force:
Agency – Auto	4,336.0	4,422.2	(2)%
Direct – Auto	2,912.8	2,648.0	10%
Total Personal Auto	7,248.8	7,070.2	3%
Total Special Lines	3,355.5	3,123.9	7%
Total Personal Lines Business	10,604.3	10,194.1	4%
Total Commercial Auto Business	533.6	540.5	(1)%

Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines Business writes insurance for private passenger automobiles and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto Business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned by small businesses.

See the “Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENT

February 2009

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

	Current Month		Comments on Monthly Results1
Net premiums written	$	1,123.0
Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	1,048.3
Investment income		43.3
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		43.2
Service revenues		.9
Total revenues		1,135.7
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		712.4
Policy acquisition costs		103.3
Other underwriting expenses		119.5
Investment expenses		.9
Service expenses		1.5
Interest expense		11.2
Total expenses		948.8
Income before income taxes		186.9
Provision for income taxes		61.2
Net income	$	125.7
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		668.6
Per share	$	.19
Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		668.6
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		3.2
Total equivalent shares		671.8
Per share	$	.19

¹ For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2008 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2008 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found atwww.progressive.com/annualreport.

The following table sets forth the comprehensive income (loss) for the month:
Net income	$	125.7
After-tax changes in:
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		(249.2	)
Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions		(.2	)
Comprehensive income (loss)	$	(123.7)
Per share	$	(.19	)

The following table sets forth the investment results for the month:
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
Fixed-income securities	(1.8)%
Common stocks	(10.2)%
Total portfolio	(2.2)%
Pretax recurring investment book yield	4.0%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENTS

February 2009 Year-to-Date

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

		Year-to-Date
		2009		2008		% Change
Net premiums written		$	2,340.3	$	2,372.1	(1	)
Revenues:
Net premiums earned		$	2,350.5	$	2,340.6	0
Investment income			87.0		97.4	(11	)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities			14.1		61.2	(77	)
Service revenues	��		2.3		3.1	(26	)
Total revenues			2,453.9		2,502.3	(2	)
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses			1,606.0		1,739.5	(8	)
Policy acquisition costs			232.7		234.5	(1	)
Other underwriting expenses			255.7		260.1	(2	)
Investment expenses			1.9		.6	217
Service expenses			2.9		3.4	(15	)
Interest expense			22.5		22.9	(2	)
Total expenses			2,121.7		2,261.0	(6	)
Income before income taxes			332.2		241.3	38
Provision for income taxes			108.3		73.2	48
Net income		$	223.9	$	168.1	33
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding			668.5		672.3	(1	)
Per share		$	.33	$	.25	34
Diluted:
Average shares outstanding			668.5		672.3	(1	)
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation			3.5		6.1	(43	)
Total equivalent shares			672.0		678.4	(1	)
Per share		$	.33	$	.25	34

The following table sets forth comprehensive income (loss) for the year-to-date period:
	2009			2008
Net income	$	223.9		$	168.1
After-tax changes in:
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		(311.2	)		(204.8	)
Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions		(.8	)		(.5	)
Comprehensive income (loss)	$	(88.1	)	$	(37.2	)
Per share	$	(.13	)	$	(.06	)

The following table sets forth the investment results for the year-to-date period:
	2009		2008
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
Fixed-income securities	(1.9	)%	.5	%
Common stocks	(17.4	)%	(8.7	)%
Total portfolio	(2.8	)%	(1.0	)%
Pretax recurring investment book yield	4.1	%	4.4	%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

February 2009

($ in millions)

(unaudited)

Current Month
	Personal Lines Business						Commercial Auto Business		Other Businesses1		Companywide Total
	Agency		Direct		Total
Net Premiums Written	$	592.6	$	405.8	$	998.4	$	123.6	$	1.0	$	1,123.0
% Growth in NPW		(1)%		9%		3%		(8)%		NM		2%
Net Premiums Earned	$	559.3	$	360.7	$	920.0	$	126.4	$	1.9	$	1,048.3
% Growth in NPE		(1)%		7%		2%		(7)%		NM		1%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		68.6		70.2		69.2		59.5		NM		68.0
Expense ratio		21.3		20.4		21.0		22.8		NM		21.2
Combined ratio		89.9		90.6		90.2		82.3		NM		89.2
Actuarial Adjustments2
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years											$	(4.2)
Current accident year												(2.6)
Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	(5.2)	$	(2.5)	$	(7.7)	$	.9	$	0	$	(6.8)
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment											$	(4.2)
All other development												4.1
Total development											$	(.1)
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio												68.0
Accident year loss/LAE ratio												68.0
Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio												68.0
Expense ratio												20.8
Combined ratio												88.8

¹ Primarily includes professional liability insurance for community banks and Progressive’s run-off businesses. The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $.6 million for the month. Combined ratios and % growth are not meaningful (NM) due to the low level of premiums earned by, and the variability of losses in, such businesses.

² Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

February 2009 Year-to-Date

($ in millions)

(unaudited)

	Year-to-Date
	Personal Lines Business			Commercial Auto Business	Other Businesses1	Companywide Total
	Agency	Direct	Total
Net Premiums Written	$1,229.7	$840.9	$2,070.6	$266.4	$3.3	$2,340.3
% Growth in NPW	(3)%	6%	0%	(12)%	NM	(1)%
Net Premiums Earned	$1,254.2	$805.5	$2,059.7	$286.7	$4.1	$2,350.5
% Growth in NPE	(2)%	7%	2%	(7)%	NM	0%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio	69.1	70.5	69.7	59.2	NM	68.3
Expense ratio	20.9	20.3	20.6	21.5	NM	20.8
Combined ratio	90.0	90.8	90.3	80.7	NM	89.1
Actuarial Adjustments2
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years						$(1.1)
Current accident year						(9.9)
Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$(6.3)	$(5.0)	$(11.3)	$.3	$0	$(11.0)
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment						$(1.1)
All other development						57.3
Total development						$56.2
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio						68.3
Accident year loss/LAE ratio						70.7
Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio						68.4
Expense ratio						21.0
Combined ratio						89.4
Statutory Surplus						$4,656.8
NM = Not Meaningful

¹ The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $.9 million.

² Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

	February 2009
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:1
Investments – Available-for-sale, at fair value:
Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $10,377.9)	$9,962.7
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks2(cost: $1,091.7)	812.1
Common equities (cost: $553.4)	598.3
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,165.4)	1,165.4
Total investments3	12,538.5
Net premiums receivable	2,459.7
Deferred acquisition costs	415.2
Other assets	2,615.0
Total assets	$18,028.4
Unearned premiums	$4,163.5
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves	6,070.0
Other liabilities4	1,489.4
Debt	2,175.8
Shareholders’ equity	4,129.7
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$18,028.4

Common Shares outstanding	676.7
Shares repurchased – February	—
Average cost per share	$—
Book value per share	$6.10
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity	(.3)%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on investments	$(597.0)
Increase (decrease) from January 2009	$(383.5)
Increase (decrease) from December 2008	$(478.8)
Debt-to-total capital ratio	34.5%
Fixed-income portfolio duration	3.1 years
Weighted average credit quality	AA+
Year-to-date Gainshare factor	.87

¹ Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $243.0 million.

² As of February 28, 2009, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $52.9 million as a realized loss during the period we held these securities.

³ Includes $5.2 billion of cash and U.S. Treasury securities prior to settling $.2 billion of net security transactions outstanding as of month-end.

⁴ Includes $.2 billion of net unsettled security transactions (as discussed in note 3 above).

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Monthly Commentary

• The Company has no additional commentary regarding February’s results.

Upcoming Events

We are currently scheduled to release March results on Wednesday, April 15, 2009, before the market opens. For a schedule of upcoming events, view the “Calendar of Events” page on our Web site athttp://investors.progressive.com/events.aspx.

About Progressive

The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies, in business since 1937, is one of the country’s largest auto insurance groups, the largest seller of motorcycle policies and a market leader in commercial auto insurance based on premiums written.

Progressive is committed to becoming consumers’ #1 choice for auto insurance by providing competitive rates and innovative products and services that meet drivers’ needs throughout their lifetimes, including superior online and in-person customer service, and best-in-class, 24-hour claims service, such as its concierge level of claims service available at service centers located in major metropolitan areas throughout the United States.

Progressive companies offer consumers choices in how to shop for, buy and manage their auto insurance policies. Progressive offers its products, including personal and commercial auto, motorcycle, boat and recreational vehicle insurance, through more than 30,000 independent insurance agencies throughout the U.S. and online and by phone directly from the Company. Private passenger auto products and prices are different when purchased directly from Progressive or through independent agencies. To find an agent or to get a quote, go tohttp://www.progressive.com.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, are publicly traded at NYSE:PGR. For more information, including a guide to interpreting the monthly reporting package, visithttp://www.progressive.com.

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including counterparties to certain financial transactions; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems) and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding pending loss and loss adjustment expense reserves becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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