PSEG Public Service Enterprise Group Barclays Capital 2011 CEO Energy/Power Conference September 8, 2011 EXHIBIT 99.1 |
2 Forward-Looking Statement Readers are cautioned that statements contained in this presentation about our and our subsidiaries' future performance, including future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects, consequences and all other statements that are not purely historical, are forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. When used herein, the words “will”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “should”, “hypothetical”, “potential”, “forecast”, “project”, variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Although we believe that our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, they are subject to risks and uncertainties and we can give no assurance they will be achieved. The results or developments projected or predicted in these statements may differ materially from what may actually occur. Factors which could cause results or events to differ from current expectations include, but are not limited to: • adverse changes in energy industry law, policies and regulation, including market structures and a potential shift away from competitive markets toward subsidized market mechanisms, transmission planning and cost allocation rules, including rules regarding how transmission is planned and who is permitted to build transmission in the future, and reliability standards, • any inability of our transmission and distribution businesses to obtain adequate and timely rate relief and regulatory approvals from federal and state regulators, • changes in federal and state environmental regulations that could increase our costs or limit operations of our generating units, • changes in nuclear regulation and/or general developments in the nuclear power industry, including various impacts from any accidents or incidents experienced at our facilities or by others in the industry that could limit operations of our nuclear generating units, • actions or activities at one of our nuclear units located on a multi-unit site that might adversely affect our ability to continue to operate that unit or other units located at the same site, • any inability to balance our energy obligations, available supply and trading risks, • any deterioration in our credit quality, or the credit quality of our counterparties, • availability of capital and credit at commercially reasonable terms and conditions and our ability to meet cash needs, • any inability to realize anticipated tax benefits or retain tax credits, • changes in the cost of, or interruption in the supply of, fuel and other commodities necessary to the operation of our generating units, • delays in receipt of necessary permits and approvals for our construction and development activities, • delays or unforeseen cost escalations in our construction and development activities, • adverse changes in the demand for or price of the capacity and energy that we sell into wholesale electricity markets, • increase in competition in energy markets in which we compete, • challenges associated with recruitment and/or retention of a qualified workforce, • adverse performance of our decommissioning and defined benefit plan trust fund investments and changes in discount rates and funding requirements, and • changes in technology and customer usage patterns. For further information, please refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K, including Item 1A. Risk Factors, and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents address in further detail our business, industry issues and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in this presentation. In addition, any forward-looking statements included herein represent our estimates only as of today and should not be relied upon as representing our estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our internal estimates change, unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws. |
3 GAAP Disclaimer PSEG presents Operating Earnings in addition to its Net Income reported in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). Operating Earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure that differs from Net Income because it excludes gains or losses associated with Nuclear Decommissioning Trust (NDT), Mark-to-Market (MTM) accounting, and other material one-time items. PSEG presents Operating Earnings because management believes that it is appropriate for investors to consider results excluding these items in addition to the results reported in accordance with GAAP. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measure of Operating Earnings provides a consistent and comparable measure of performance of its businesses to help shareholders understand performance trends. This information is not intended to be viewed as an alternative to GAAP information. The last slide in this presentation includes a list of items excluded from Income from Continuing Operations to reconcile to Operating Earnings, with a reference to that slide included on each of the slides where the non-GAAP information appears. |
PSEG – Defining the Future Ralph Izzo Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer |
5 PSEG Advantage: Right platform to deliver value to customers and investor. PSE&G positioned to meet NJ’s energy policy and economic growth objectives with a $5.2 billion investment program through 2013 Electric & Gas Delivery and Transmission PSEG Power’s low-cost, base load and load following fleet is geographically well positioned and environmentally responsible Regional Wholesale Energy PSEG Energy Holdings positioned to pursue attractive renewable generation opportunities Renewable Investments $17.3B Market Cap* $28.8B Assets** *Market Capitalization based on closing price on August 31, 2011. ** Total Assets at June 30, 2011. |
6 Earnings growth achieved… … through increased investment, higher output and lower costs. * See page 24 for Items excluded from Income from Continuing Operations to reconcile to Operating Earnings; All periods reflect Texas in Discontinued Operations. $2.91 $3.09 $3.12 2008 Operating Earnings* 2009 Operating Earnings* 2010 Operating Earnings* |
Market Cap (Year-End 2010) $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 Net Income (Full Year 2010) $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 7 Advantage … PSEG is one of the largest power companies in the US Source: EEI 2010 Financial Review; SNL Financial Data as of December 31, 2010. PSEG $1.56 B PSEG $16.1B |
8 Growth $4.72 B 69% Maintenance $2.13 B 31% PSEG’s consolidated capital spending is focused on growth Parent SC $0.07 B 1% Power $1.50 B 22% PSE&G $5.24 B 76% Holdings $0.04 B 1% PSEG 2011-2013E Capital Spending $6.85 Billion* by Subsidiary PSEG 2011-2013E Capital Spending $6.85 Billion* Growth vs. Maintenance Spend *E: Estimate . |
9 PSE&G’s capital program calls for investing $5.2 billion… …through investment in transmission and distribution. *E: Estimate. 2011-2013E Utility Capital Spending $5.2 Billion* Renewables/EMP $0.7 B 13% Gas Utility $0.6 B 11% Electric Distribution $1.0 B 20% Transmission $2.9 B 56% |
10 PSE&G’s investment program provides opportunity for ~11%* annualized growth in rate base … PSE&G Projected Rate Base *Starting from 2010 Rate Base of $7.8 billion. … as Transmission grows to 33% of rate base by 2013. $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 Gas Distribution Electric Distribution Electric Transmission Energy Master Plan |
11 Low-cost portfolio Fuel flexibility Regional focus in competitive, liquid markets Assets favorably located near customers/load centers Many units east of PJM constraints Market knowledge and experience to maximize the value of our assets Nuclear plants re-licensed Multiple emission controls installed … and is well positioned to respond to EPA regulations. Power’s investment program has focused on optimizing its assets in a dynamic environment … 18% 45% 8% Fuel Diversity* Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Pumped Storage 1% Energy Produced* Total GWh: 56,727 52% 19% 28% Pumped Storage & Oil <1% Nuclear Coal Gas Total MW: 13,538 27% 9% * Twelve months ended December 31, 2010. |
12 … good location, fuel diversity, and solid markets. Power’s PJM assets along the dispatch curve … Energy Revenue X X X Capacity Revenue X X X Ancillary Revenue X X Dual Fuel X X Peaking units Load following units Nuclear Coal Combined Cycle Steam Peaking Baseload units Illustrative Salem Hope Creek Keystone Conemaugh Hudson 2 Linden 1,2 Burlington 8-9-11 Edison 1-2-3 Essex 10-11-12 Bergen 1 Sewaren 1-4 Hudson 1 Mercer1, 2 Bergen 2 Sewaren 6 Mercer 3 Kearny 10-11 Linden 5-8 / Essex 9 Burlington 12 / Kearny 12 Peach Bottom Yards Creek National Park Salem 3 Bergen 3 |
13 Power’s Coal/Gas fuel mix has changed from ~50/50… …to ~40/60 Coal/Gas due to gas commodity pricing vs coal. 52% 42% 42% 39% 48% 58% 58% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2009 2010 2011 July YTD Coal Gas CC |
14 0 50 100 150 200 250 Source: EPA (2009), EIA (2009), and PSEG Projections 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 PSEG Projected NOx Emission Rate for 2011 versus 2009 400 U.S. Coal Plants Conemaugh Hudson Bridgeport Mercer Keystone NOx Keystone Bridgeport Conemaugh Hudson Mercer SO 2 PSEG Projected SO2 Emission Rate for 2011 versus 2009 400 U.S. Coal Plants Keystone Conemaugh Bridgeport Mercer Mercury PSEG Projected HG Emission Rate for 2011 versus 2009 400 U.S. Coal Plants Hudson PSEG Power’s environmental program has resulted in dramatically lower emissions… …leaving Power’s coal fleet among the cleanest in the country. |
15 …through a balanced portfolio hedging strategy. Power’s hedging strategy combined with strong operations have supported results 2011 forwards imply continued market challenges, but well positioned for market response to EPA requirements Power will continue to utilize a hedging strategy that incorporates full requirement load contracts and contracting using other products to secure pricing over a 2-3 year forward horizon BGS continues to be an important part of our hedging strategy Three year nature of BGS provides reduced volatility for customers and providers PSEG Power, as part of P3, is an active participant in market discussions challenging subsidized pricing. Power’s fleet is economically optimized… |
16 Hedge Strategy … … open to market improvement. * Hedge percentages and prices as of July 2011 for the August 2011 and forward time frame. Revenues of full requirement load deals based on contract price, including renewable energy credits, ancillary, and transmission components but excluding capacity. Hedges include positions with MTM accounting treatment and options. 2011 2012 2013 Aug - Dec Volume TWh 14 36 36 Base Load % Hedged 100% 75%-80% 35%-40% (Nuclear and Base Load Coal) Price $/MWh $68 $64 $63 Volume TWh 9 20 21 Intermediate Coal, Combined % Hedged 30%-35% Cycle, Peaking Price $/MWh $68 Volume TWh 23 56 57 Total % Hedged 70%-75% 45%-50% 20%-25% Price $/MWh $68 $64 $63 Contracted Energy* |
17 Growth $4.72 B 69% Maintenance $2.13 B 31% PSEG’s consolidated capital spending is focused on growth … Parent SC $0.07 B 1% Power $1.50 B 22% PSE&G $5.24 B 76% Holdings $0.04 B 1% PSEG 2011-2013E Capital Spending $6.85 Billion* by Subsidiary PSEG 2011-2013E Capital Spending $6.85 Billion* Growth vs. Maintenance Spend *E: Estimate . … with reasonable, risk-adjusted returns. |
Sources Uses 18 PSEG’s internally generated cash flow between 2011 – 2013 … … supports capital investment and the shareholder dividend without the need for equity issuance. * Cash from Operations adjusts for securitization principal repayments ~$0.7B. ** 2011-2012 include bonus depreciation of ~$0.9B offset by ~$0.1B in 2013. Power Cash from Ops Debt Issued PSE&G Investment Debt Redeemed Shareholder Dividend PSEG Consolidated 2011 – 2013 Sources and Uses PSE&G Cash from Ops* Power Investment Asset Sale Proceeds Includes: Bonus Depreciation = ~$0.8B** Pension Contribution = ~($0.5B) Other Net Cash Flow |
19 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011-2013E Average PSEG Power Funds from Operations / Total Debt Power’s credit metrics remain strong ... Power’s free cash flow produces strong credit measures and provides sufficient cushion for potential gas price volatility Free Cash Flow (1) ~750 ~950 ~750 Average: ~725 Dividends to Parent 500 850 550 Average: ~475 (in $Millions) (1) Free Cash Flow represents cash from operations less cash used for investing; E:estimate. … providing opportunities for growth investments. |
20 PSEG Dividend – a major source of return to shareholders … PSEG Annual Common Dividend Per Share 2001-2011E … with a 104-year track record. $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 $1.10 $1.12 $1.14 $1.17 $1.29 $1.33 $1.37 $1.37 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 |
21 Outlook for 2011 Operating Earnings Maintained * See page 24 for Items excluded from Income from Continuing Operations to reconcile to Operating Earnings. EPS contribution from PSE&G expected to represent 35 to 40% of 2011 forecast earnings versus 27% contribution to 2010 earnings. $3.12 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 2010 Operating Earnings* 2011E Earnings Guidance* $2.75E $2.50E |
22 PSEG is responding to investors’ questions Investors’ Questions PSEG Position How is PSEG affected by environmental policy changes? Commercial operation of Back-End Technology puts us in good position on potential Clean Air rules What’s the impact of commodity volatility? Multi-year hedging Asset balance dampens relative fuel price volatility Capacity markets provide stability How are you responding to State incursion into markets? Recent decision by FERC has upheld competitive market mechanisms We are also challenging the constitutionality of NJ’s actions Do you need equity? Strong cash flow enables us to execute our strategy, with room for additional investment, without the need to issue equity How is management incented to deliver value to shareholders? Management’s long-term incentives are based on a combination of return on invested capital and total shareholder return relative to peers over a multi-year period of time |
23 PSEG Advantage: Asset mix, strong operations… Reliability One Award winner for Mid-Atlantic Region – 9 th year in a row Regulatory agreements and cost control provide opportunity for improved returns Investment program focused on growth and providing customers with clean, reliable energy PSEG Power PSE&G …with balance sheet to support growth. Asset mix Strong platform open to improvement in the market Well-run, low-cost generating fleet combined with fuel flexibility supports margins Hedging strategy mitigates near-term risk Major environmental compliance capital program completed Actively working to defend competitive power markets Reducing risk Building a platform for renewables and investing through PPA-supported projects International lease investments terminated Resources carefully monitoring remaining traditional leases and other investments PSEG Energy Holdings |
24 Please see Page 3 for an explanation of PSEG’s use of Operating Earnings as a non-GAAP financial measure and how it differs from Net Income. Items Excluded from Income from Continuing Operations to Reconcile to Operating Earnings Pro-forma Adjustments, net of tax 2010 2009 2008 Earnings Impact ($ Millions) Gain (Loss) on Nuclear Decommissioning Trust (NDT) Fund Related Activity (PSEG Power) 46 $ 9 $ (71) $ Gain (Loss) on Mark-to-Market (MTM) (PSEG Power) (1) (11) 14 Market Transition Charge Refund (PSE&G) (72) - - Net Reversal of Lease Transaction Reserves (Energy Holdings) - 29 - Lease Transaction Reserves (Energy Holdings) - - (490) Asset Impairments - - (13) Premium on Bond Redemption - - (1) Total Pro-forma adjustments (27) $ 27 $ (561) $ Fully Diluted Average Shares Outstanding (in Millions) 507 507 508 Per Share Impact (Diluted) Gain (Loss) on Nuclear Decommissioning Trust (NDT) Fund Related Activity (PSEG Power) 0.09 $ 0.02 $ (0.14) $ Gain (Loss) on Mark-to-Market (MTM) (PSEG Power) - (0.02) 0.03 Market Transition Charge Refund (PSE&G) (0.14) - - Net Reversal of Lease Transaction Reserves (Energy Holdings) - 0.05 - Lease Transaction Reserves (Energy Holdings) - - (0.96) Asset Impairments - - (0.03) Premium on Bond Redemption - - - Total Pro-forma adjustments (0.05) $ 0.05 $ (1.10) $ December 31, PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED Reconciling Items Excluded from Continuing Operations to Compute Operating Earnings (Unaudited) For the Twelve Months Ended |