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Bret Wise: OK.
Operator: Jeff Johnson with Robert Baird. Please, go ahead.
Jeff Johnson: Thank you. Good morning, guys.
Bret Wise: Good morning, Jeff.
Bill Jellison: Good morning.
Jeff Johnson: Hey a few things here if I could. Bret, just going back to your comments on organic-growth guidance for the year. If I do the math, can you just confirm three to five percent is where we should be looking for Q4?
Bret Wise: Yes. I think that there’s a chance that it could be in that range, except that the implications for us, or the things we’re looking at is where’s the market at today? Still pretty good demand, certainly positive growth although it’s a little bit difficult to tell how positive. Then we’ve got a couple headwinds. We’ve got the fact that we’re going to be out of the dental anesthetic market in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, it looks like completely out of that market, which could cost us up to three-quarters of a point of growth globally, on a global growth rate. We do believe, although it’s hard to tell with precision, that the dealers buying activity ahead of our price increase was heavier this year than last year, which would also indicate some sales from Q4 probably moved into Q3.
So, we did actually lower our internal growth guidance for the year. We were at five-and-a-half and six-and-a-half, and we lowered it to five and five-and-a-half, although we’re at 5.7 through
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nine months. I think that’s indicative of those two issues I just commented on and the fact that we believe that we could be in the range you’re talking about for Q4.
Jeff Johnson: Yes, fair enough. I think in this environment we all expect a little slowing and that’s fine. I guess my question is, if we see a little slowing in Q4, you’ve got these couple issues, the anesthetic issue, the buy-forward issue that I think you’ll have to hurdle, as you get into 2009.
Trying to stay very qualitative, I know you don’t want to guide, but I would assume as those headwinds go away, but you potentially face maybe growing macro headwinds, it’s hard for me to imagine ’09 much below Q4 levels on an annual basis then.
Bret Wise: Yes. I know where you’re going with that. The way that I think about that is how we’ve seen the dental market react in previous economic slowdowns. It does tend to come off a point or two of the normal global growth rate, which is normally four-and-a-half to five, and if you come off a couple points you’re at two to three, or maybe three-and-a-half. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable assumption at this early point, if the economy stays as it is now, which looks pretty bleak, dentistry’s growth would slow, but remain growing, probably in those low single-digit ranges that we’re talking about.
Jeff Johnson: Yes, fair enough. And then you made a comment, Bret, on the guidance when you were discussing guidance, about the high end. Now was that the high end of your original guidance or the high end of where you are today with EPS guidance for the year?
And then Bill you made a comment about a potential two-to-three-penny impact due to some below-the-line noise there on the fourth quarter. Is that somewhat kind of in the guidance? Or how should we think about that?
Bret Wise: You know everything we commented on today is in our guidance, sure. My comment was that we started out the year, I think, at $1.83 to $1.88. Now we’re at $1.86 to $1.91. So, even at the
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low end of our guidance, we’re at the high end of what we started with, and perhaps even above that, if we get to the high end of our own guidance. The comments we made are in the annual guidance that we’re giving you. And my earlier comment was that we’re pleased to be at or above the high end of where we were when we started the year.
Jeff Johnson: Yes. Fair enough. That’s how I thought I heard it.
And then Bill, I didn’t hear geography or a percentage of revenues by geography for the quarter. I know you did year-to-date, but that gets a little messy backing out. Could you give me the Q3 numbers?
Bill Jellison: Oh, yes. Hang on a second, Jeff. In the quarter itself, U.S. was about 41 percent of the total, Europe about 37 percent and then the rest of the world was the other 22 percent.
Jeff Johnson: 22 percent, great. And the last question, just as we think about M&A here in this environment, Bret, what’s your stomach, I guess, for a dilutive deal, if there were a techie deal out there, if there were an area you needed to get into, whether it’s digital impressions or anything else? How do you think about diluted deals as far as near term, and then the long-term benefits they could bring?
Bret Wise: Well, we’ve commented before that we would accept a mild dilution if it were for the right transaction, perhaps a good technology base or preeminent market position, but we would expect to be able to get that to neutral to accretive shortly thereafter.
So I think that’s still where we are. The point you raised about buying new technologies, particularly if they’re not quite ready for launch, is by definition dilutive for a time. We’ve done that before with new technologies and absorbed that dilution until we could get some new product
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to market. We would have an appetite for that if it were good strategically and only had mild dilution.
Jeff Johnson: All right. Fair enough. Thanks guys, I appreciate it.
Bret Wise: OK. Thank you.
Operator: Our next question is from Greg Halter with Great Lakes Review.
Greg Halter: Good morning, guys.
Bret Wise: Hi, Greg.
Bill Jellison: Hi, Greg.
Greg Halter: I know you talked about the receivables and your days and so forth. I just wondered if you could comment on your bad-debt reserve and how your customers are looking in terms of payments and so forth on a go-forward basis, from what you can tell?
Bill Jellison: Sure. You know we actually took a pretty good look at that at the end of the third Q to decide, based on the environment, whether anything additional was needed. We felt that the reserve level was pretty good. We did actually have included in the third-quarter numbers about a 1.2 million euro additional bad-debt but it was in the numbers that we had. From an overall receivable perspective, we were very pleased at the 59 days, which is a little bit below last year’s level. Again, as we move forward, our general expectation is that we would actually improve typically. But, I think at this point in time we’re still comfortable with the days right now. As we continue to move forward, we’re obviously making sure that each of our different divisions are
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taking a hard look at limits, and terms and everything else, just to make sure that we’re prudent in looking at that risk factor.
Greg Halter: OK. And I know you commented on the implant-side of things in terms of the growth there. I was just wondering if you think you’re still continuing to gain share from a lower base at least in the U.S., and what the prospects are in that business going forward.
Bret Wise: I think we’re pleased with the performance we had. Not all of our competitors have reported yet. Several of them have, which indicates we’re toward the up end or perhaps at the very top end of the larger implant companies’ organic sales growth ranges. In the U.S., of course, your comment is valid, that we had very small market share here. So, we view that as a good opportunity. I think the U.S. implant market itself is growing, probably low single digits right now.
I think we’re well-positioned there. We’ve got two great brands. We’ve got a great sales force and some good technologies coming out, both Q4 and then next year. So we feel pretty good about our prospects in that market.
Greg Halter: OK. Do you still expect your capital spending this year to be about 75 million? Any early thoughts for ’09, at least directionally up and down over that?
Bill Jellison: Yes. Right now that’s a reasonable level of expectation for this year in total. I’d say that as we move forward we would expect kind of a normal increase off of that base, at least at this point, but as I mentioned, we’re just going through our budget-review process over the next month-and-a-half here.
Greg Halter: OK, great. Thanks a lot.
Bret Wise: Thank you.
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Operator: And again, Ladies and Gentlemen, that is star one if you have a question. We’ll take our next question from Larry Marsh, Barclays Capital. Please, go ahead.
Adam Poussard: Good morning. It’s Adam Poussard calling in for Larry. You mentioned Ortho growth, in the high single digits. How did that break down by region?
Bret Wise: It was actually pretty balanced this quarter. Ortho was high single digits in the world. I think it was high single digits in both the U.S. and in Europe, which are the primary markets, of course, that we’re in. I think it was a very balanced growth profile for us.
Adam Poussard: And then what about endo for the quarter?
Bret Wise: Endo I think worldwide was mid single-digit growth.
Adam Poussard: And I’m just curious on your small equipment. What would you characterize as the highest price point on some of those products? And what is the average?
Chris Clark: That’s a range of products. You’ve got everything from systems, Adam, that may sell up to $4,500 to $5,000 to the dentist and you’ve got individual hand pieces that will be lower than that. Small equipment for us is probably anything in that $500 to $5,000 range.
Adam Poussard: I guess on the upper end of that, that’s typically not financed by a dentist, right?
Chris Clark: Typically not. Typically, anything under $5,000, general rule of thumb, they’re going to put on their credit card.
Adam Poussard: Thanks a lot, guys.
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Bret Wise: All right, thank you.
Operator: As there are no other questions in queue at this time, I’d like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bret Wise, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Please go ahead, sir.
Bret Wise: Thank you again for joining us this morning and of course for your interest in DENTSPLY. We’re very pleased with our performance thus far in 2008, and believe we are very well positioned to round out a very good year again here in the fourth quarter. And we look forward to updating you on our progress for both the fourth quarter and our expectations for next year when we talk to you in early February. Thank you.
Operator: Ladies and Gentlemen, this concludes today’s DENTSPLY International conference call. Thanks for joining us and have a wonderful day. You may now disconnect.
END