Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | 6. Reserves for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses: Activity in the consolidated reserves for unpaid losses and LAE is summarized as follows (in thousands): 2016 2015 2014 Balance at January 1 $ 450,878 $ 415,135 $ 382,640 Less reinsurance recoverable 102,791 91,943 70,172 Net balance at January 1 348,087 323,192 312,468 Incurred related to: Current year 246,080 237,102 215,258 Prior years 7,608 (6,953) (5,203) Total incurred 253,688 230,149 210,055 Paid related to: Current year 93,067 83,132 76,231 Prior years 150,378 122,122 123,100 Total paid 243,445 205,254 199,331 Net balance at December 31 358,330 348,087 323,192 Plus reinsurance recoverable 123,237 102,791 91,943 Balance at December 31 $ 481,567 $ 450,878 $ 415,135 The $7.6 million unfavorable net development, $7.0 million favorable net development and $5.2 million favorable net development in prior accident years recognized in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively, represent normal changes in our loss reserve estimates. In 2016 , the aggregate loss reserve estimates for prior years were increased to reflect unfavorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate losses would be more than the previous estimates. In 2015 and 2014, the aggregate loss reserve estimates for prior years were decreased to reflect favorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate losses would be less than the previous estimates. Generally, changes in reserves are caused by variations between actual experience and previous expectations and by reduced emphasis on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method due to the aging of the accident years. The $7.6 million increase in prior period reserves for unpaid losses and LAE recognized in 2016 was attributable to $5.3 million favorable net development on claims incurred in the 2015 accident year, $3.9 million unfavorable net development on claims incurred in the 2014 accident year and $9.0 million unfavorable net development on claims incurred in the 2013 and prior accident years. Our MGA Commercial Products operating unit, Specialty Personal Lines operating unit and Specialty Commercial operating unit accounted for $11.3 million, $5.0 million, and $1.2 million, respectively, of the increase in prior period reserves recognized during 2016. The increase in reserves for our MGA Commercial operating unit was primarily related to our commercial auto liability line of business. The increase in reserves for our Specialty Personal Lines operating unit was primarily attributable to the 2015, 2014 and 2013 and prior accident years. The increase in reserves for our Specialty Commercial operating unit was primarily related to $0.9 million unfavorable development in our medical professional liability products and $0.7 million related to our commercial auto liability specialty program, partially offset by $0.3 million favorable development in our general aviation line of business and $0.1 million favorable development in our commercial excess liability line of business. These unfavorable developments were partially offset by favorable development of $6.6 million in our Standard Commercial P&C operating unit and $3.3 in our Workers Compensation operating unit. The decrease in reserves for our Standard Commercial P&C operating unit was primarily related to our general liability lines of business. The decrease in prior period reserves for our Workers Compensation operating unit was attributable to the 2015, 2014, 2013 and prior accident years. Short-Duration Contract Disclosures ASU 2015-09, “Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts” (Topic 944), requires insurers to make disclosures about their liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses for short-duration insurance contracts. These disclosures include tables showing incurred and paid claims development information (net of reinsurance and excluding unallocated loss adjustment expenses) which are disaggregated based on the characteristics of the insurance contracts that the insurer writes and other factors specific to the reporting entity. The information should be disclosed by accident year for the number of years claims typically remain outstanding, but need not be more than 10 years, including a reconciliation of the disaggregated information to the consolidated statement of financial position. The basis for our disaggregation of this information is by each of our three reportable segments. See Note 10, “Segment Information,” for additional information regarding our three reportable segments. Reserves for Incurred But Not Reported (“IBNR”) Claims Reserves for IBNR claims are based on the estimated ultimate cost of settling claims, including the effects of inflation and other social and economic factors, using past experience adjusted for current trends and any other factors that would modify past experience. We use a variety of statistical and actuarial techniques to analyze current claims costs, including frequency and severity data and prevailing economic, social and legal factors. Each such method has its own set of assumptions and outputs, and each has strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Since no single estimation method is superior to another method in all situations, the methods and assumptions used to project loss reserves will vary by coverage and product. We use what we believe to be the most appropriate set of actuarial methods and assumptions for each product line grouping and coverage. While the loss projection methods may vary by product line and coverage, the general approach for calculating IBNR remains the same: ultimate losses are forecasted first, and that amount is reduced by the amount of cumulative paid claims and case reserves. Reserves established in prior years are adjusted as loss experience develops and new information becomes available. Adjustments to previously estimated reserves are reflected in the results of operations in the year in which they are made. As described above, various actuarial methods are utilized to determine the reserves for losses and LAE recorded in our Consolidated Balance Sheets. Weightings of methods at a detailed level may change from evaluation to evaluation based on a number of observations, measures, and time elements. There were no significant changes to the methods and assumptions underlying our consolidated reserve estimations and selections as of December 31, 2016. Methodology for Determining Cumulative Number of Reported Claims A claim file is created when the Company is notified of an actual demand for payment, notified of an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when it is determined that a demand for payment could possibly lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage on the same policy or on another policy. The cumulative number of reported claims is predominately measured at a coverage level by occurrence, with the exception of our Specialty Commercial operating unit which is predominately measured at the claim level. Reported occurrences that do not result in a liability are included in reported claims. The Company does not generate claim counts for ceded business. Incurred & Paid Claims Development Disclosures The following tables provide information about incurred and cumulative paid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (“ALAE”), net of reinsurance for our three reportable segments, our Specialty Commercial Segment, our Standard Commercial Segment and our Personal Segment. The incurred and paid losses by accident year information presented for all segments in the below tables for calendar years prior to 2016 is required supplementary information and is unaudited. The following tables also include IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims and the cumulative number of reported claims as of December 31, 2016 ($ in thousands): Specialty Commercial Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, IBNR Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2007 $ 51,458 $ 52,141 $ 51,813 $ 52,673 $ 50,158 $ 49,654 $ 49,096 $ 49,056 $ 49,290 $ 49,544 $ 68 6,095 2008 55,617 56,150 58,143 57,923 56,579 55,157 55,425 55,457 55,864 (102) 7,367 2009 60,950 62,679 61,196 59,471 59,831 59,635 59,988 61,361 87 5,456 2010 74,187 78,089 75,695 77,593 78,003 77,972 77,631 1,227 4,999 2011 88,679 87,558 91,059 90,713 89,737 87,793 1,641 5,782 2012 106,371 111,253 111,841 115,709 116,320 2,020 7,337 2013 140,546 135,114 137,230 143,983 2,127 9,188 2014 144,996 133,464 138,842 6,547 10,049 2015 147,304 146,610 23,447 10,707 2016 151,494 52,283 10,424 Total $ 1,029,442 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007 $ 18,851 $ 33,504 $ 41,344 $ 44,861 $ 47,453 $ 48,612 $ 48,612 $ 48,783 $ 48,860 $ 49,025 2008 24,134 37,803 44,903 51,280 53,723 53,577 54,080 54,909 55,372 2009 21,259 34,411 45,757 53,135 56,791 57,641 59,149 60,785 2010 24,818 45,234 58,139 68,625 73,398 74,513 75,787 2011 27,454 53,509 71,697 80,004 83,787 84,936 2012 37,655 60,923 82,066 97,680 109,060 2013 40,475 76,366 101,725 126,025 2014 42,097 73,631 99,521 2015 39,515 74,906 2016 41,397 Total $ 776,814 All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance (26) Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 252,602 (1 S tandard Commercial Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, IBNR Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2007 $ 48,423 $ 45,280 $ 42,632 $ 42,898 $ 41,814 $ 39,476 $ 37,894 $ 36,798 $ 37,321 $ 36,419 $ 576 3,156 2008 49,452 47,557 46,762 45,556 42,758 41,597 40,387 40,001 39,195 1,826 3,246 2009 44,719 45,674 46,772 46,778 45,970 44,159 43,851 43,107 2,102 2,632 2010 45,263 45,235 44,847 43,164 43,459 42,426 42,175 2,252 2,903 2011 60,236 56,489 55,156 49,268 47,266 47,423 3,387 4,364 2012 51,998 52,554 48,222 45,990 44,272 5,144 3,212 2013 55,482 57,528 56,703 53,174 6,379 3,910 2014 55,488 55,808 53,568 8,979 3,531 2015 49,571 49,857 11,946 3,129 2016 46,880 16,885 2,554 Total $ 456,070 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007 $ 13,883 $ 20,362 $ 25,484 $ 28,908 $ 31,311 $ 32,288 $ 32,949 $ 33,561 $ 33,982 $ 34,483 2008 17,182 25,624 29,058 32,523 34,056 34,762 35,360 36,276 36,859 2009 15,242 28,313 32,075 35,818 38,316 40,389 40,575 40,629 2010 21,302 28,342 30,957 33,428 37,166 39,115 39,706 2011 24,899 35,119 38,909 40,301 41,140 42,441 2012 23,445 32,203 34,789 37,191 38,526 2013 23,123 36,411 41,809 44,475 2014 24,255 37,122 41,514 2015 19,085 34,245 2016 21,508 Total $ 374,386 All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance 538 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 82,222 Personal Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, IBNR Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2007 $ 28,774 $ 31,603 $ 31,252 $ 31,485 $ 31,651 $ 31,931 $ 32,272 $ 32,517 $ 32,528 $ 32,528 $ - 15,814 2008 36,247 36,976 38,329 39,412 39,793 40,170 40,239 40,324 40,369 - 17,353 2009 40,436 42,092 46,244 47,977 48,930 49,694 49,772 49,891 - 21,052 2010 63,862 78,294 80,765 84,724 83,903 84,252 84,591 6 30,179 2011 75,746 77,652 87,810 86,757 86,804 86,948 (28) 31,612 2012 58,604 73,795 70,552 71,513 72,042 50 23,937 2013 55,706 59,132 60,100 60,211 234 23,461 2014 5,452 5,340 6,243 406 19,275 2015 23,104 25,682 1,813 23,234 2016 32,260 6,638 21,134 Total $ 490,765 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007 $ $ 18,106 $ 27,757 $ 30,043 $ 30,975 $ 31,355 $ 31,523 $ 32,056 $ 31,213 $ 32,531 $ 32,530 2008 20,005 32,555 36,782 38,925 39,511 40,210 40,309 40,323 40,347 2009 23,306 37,621 44,689 47,967 49,287 49,539 49,704 49,853 2010 38,643 67,755 75,199 82,624 83,511 84,111 84,556 2011 46,416 67,939 83,497 85,533 86,217 86,593 2012 37,860 64,278 68,849 70,807 71,995 2013 45,901 54,514 58,047 59,775 2014 2,515 4,418 5,631 2015 11,570 22,281 2016 21,669 Total $ 475,230 All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance 9 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 15,544 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid development tables to the liability for unpaid losses and LAE in our Consolidated Balance Sheets is as follows (in thousands): 2016 Net outstanding liabilities for losses and LAE Specialty Commercial Segment $ 252,602 Standard Commercial Segment 82,222 Personal Segment 15,544 Liabilities for unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 350,368 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE Specialty Commercial Segment 102,597 Standard Commercial Segment 8,540 Personal Segment 12,100 Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE 123,237 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses Specialty Commercial Segment 3,831 Standard Commercial Segment 3,031 Personal Segment 1,100 Total unallocated loss adjustment expenses 7,962 Total reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 481,567 C laims Duration The following table provides supplementary unaudited information about the annual percentage payout of incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2016: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (1) Unaudited Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Specialty Commercial Segment 32.4% 24.8% 17.4% 12.0% 6.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% -0.3% Standard Commercial Segment 44.6% 23.0% 8.7% 6.6% 5.0% 3.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% -1.4% Personal Segment 51.5% 29.2% 10.9% 4.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% -0.7% 1.9% 0.0% ( (1) The average annual percentage payout is calculated from a paid losses and ALAE development pattern based on an actuarial analysis of the paid losses and ALAE movements by accident year for each disaggregation category. The paid losses and AL A E development pattern provides the expected percentage of ultimate losses and ALAE to be paid in each year. The pattern considers all accident years included in the claims development tables . |