Inflation Rate
INFLATION RATE
(based on overall consumer price index)
| | | | | | | | |
Reference period | | Percentage change on the previous month | | | Percentage change on the same month in previous year | |
September 2020 | | | -0.2 | | | | -0.2 | |
October 2020 | | | 0.1 | | | | -0.2 | |
November 2020 | | | -0.8 | | | | -0.3 | |
December 2020 | | | 0.5 | | | | -0.3 | |
January 2021 | | | 0.8 | | | | 1.0 | |
February 2021 | | | 0.7 | | | | 1.3 | |
March 2021 | | | 0.5 | | | | 1.7 | |
April 2021 | | | 0.7 | | | | 2.0 | |
May 2021 | | | 0.5 | | | | 2.5 | |
June 2021 | | | 0.4 | | | | 2.3 | |
July 2021 | | | 0.9 | | | | 3.8 | |
August 2021 | | | 0.0 | | | | 3.9 | |
September 2021 | | | 0.0 | | | | 4.1 | |
In September 2021, the inflation rate in Germany, measured as the percentage change in the consumer price index compared to the same month in the previous year, was 4.1%. There are a number of reasons for the high inflation rates since July 2021, including base effects due to low prices in 2020. In this context, the temporary value added tax reduction and the sharp decline in mineral oil product prices in 2020 had an upward effect on the current overall inflation rate. In addition, the introduction of CO2 pricing as of January 2021 and COVID-19-pandemic-related effects, such as marked price increases at upstream stages in the economic process, have had an upward impact on the consumer price inflation rate, albeit to a moderate extent so far.
The prices of goods (total) increased by 6.1% between September 2020 and September 2021, which was above the average increase of all items (goods and services) included in the consumer price index. In particular, the increase in energy product prices (+14.3%) was markedly higher than overall inflation. Marked price increases were recorded for heating oil (+76. 5%) and motor fuels (+28.4%). The prices of natural gas (+5.7%) and electricity (+2.0%) also increased. In addition, above-average year-on-year price increases were recorded in September 2021 for food (+4.9%), with prices markedly higher compared to September 2020 for vegetables (+9.2%) as well as dairy products and eggs (+5.5%). In addition to non-durable consumer goods, consumer durables such as transport equipment (+6.4%) and furniture and lighting equipment (+4.4%) recorded significant price increases. Excluding energy product prices, the inflation rate would have been 3.1% in September 2021 (excluding the prices of energy products and food, it would have been 2.9%).
The prices of services (total) increased by 2.5% in September 2021 compared to September 2020. Net rents exclusive of heating expenses, which are important as they account for a large part of household final consumption expenditure, increased by 1.4%. Larger price increases were observed, among other things, for maintenance and repair of vehicles (+5.4%), services of social facilities (+5.0%) and for catering services in restaurants, cafés and the like (+3.6%).
Compared to August 2021, the consumer price index remained unchanged in September 2021. The prices of food (total) also remained unchanged, while prices of energy products (total) increased by 0.7% in September 2021 compared to August 2021, which included marked price increases for heating oil (+4.4%). The prices of clothing and footwear also increased (+3.8%), which was mainly due to the changeover to the autumn/winter collection. Due to seasonal factors, package holiday prices fell markedly (-9.2%) towards the end of the summer holidays.
Based on preliminary results published by the Federal Statistical Office, the inflation rate in October 2021, measured as the year-on year change in the consumer price index, is expected to be 4.5%. Compared to September 2021, the consumer price index is expected to increase by 0.5% in October 2021.
Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, Short-term indicators: Price indices at a glance (consumer prices, retail prices, producer prices, selling prices in wholesale trade, import prices, export prices); Tables with values and rates of change (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Short-Term-Indicators/Prices/pre110.html); Statistisches Bundesamt, Inflation rate at +4.1% in September 2021, press release of October 13, 2021 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2021/10/PE21_482_611.html); Statistisches Bundesamt, Inflation rate expected to be +4.5% in October 2021, press release of October 28, 2021 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2021/10/PE21_500_611.html).
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