HISTORICAL LOSS AND LAE DEVELOPMENT | 6. HISTORICAL LOSS AND LAE DEVELOPMENT The following table is a reconciliation of our unpaid losses and settlement expenses (LAE) for the years 2018, 2017 and 2016: (in thousands) 2018 2017 2016 Unpaid losses and LAE at beginning of year: Gross $ 1,271,503 $ 1,139,337 $ 1,103,785 Ceded (301,991) (288,224) (297,844) Net $ 969,512 $ 851,113 $ 805,941 Increase (decrease) in incurred losses and LAE: Current accident year $ 478,143 $ 440,452 $ 391,772 Prior accident years (49,950) (38,868) (41,994) Total incurred $ 428,193 $ 401,584 $ 349,778 Loss and LAE payments for claims incurred: Current accident year $ (76,050) $ (73,392) $ (70,540) Prior accident year (225,306) (209,793) (234,066) Total paid $ (301,356) $ (283,185) $ (304,606) Net unpaid losses and LAE at end of year $ 1,096,349 $ 969,512 $ 851,113 Unpaid losses and LAE at end of year: Gross $ 1,461,348 $ 1,271,503 $ 1,139,337 Ceded (364,999) (301,991) (288,224) Net $ 1,096,349 $ 969,512 $ 851,113 Loss development occurs when our current estimate of ultimate losses, established through our reserve analysis processes, differs from the initial reserve estimate. The recognition of the changes in initial reserve estimates occurred over time as claims were reported, initial case reserves were established, initial reserves were reviewed in light of additional information and ultimate payments were made on the collective set of claims incurred as of that evaluation date. The new information on the ultimate settlement value of claims is continually updated until all claims in a defined set are settled. As a small specialty insurer with a diversified product portfolio, our experience will ordinarily exhibit fluctuations from period to period. While we attempt to identify and react to systematic changes in the loss environment, we also must consider the volume of claim experience directly available to the Company and interpret any particular period’s indications with a realistic technical understanding of the reliability of those observations. The following is information about incurred and paid loss development as of December 31, 2018, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency, the total of IBNR liabilities included within the net incurred loss amounts and average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2018. The loss information has been disaggregated so that only losses that are expected to develop in a similar manner are grouped together. This has resulted in the presentation of loss information for our property and surety segments at the segment level, while information for our casualty segment has been separated in four groupings: primary occurrence, excess occurrence, claims made and transportation. Primary occurrence includes select lines within the professional services product along with general liability, small commercial and other casualty products. Excess occurrence encompasses commercial excess and personal umbrella, while claims made includes select lines within the professional services product and medical professional liability and executive products. Reported claim counts represent claim events on a specified policy rather than individual claimants and includes claims that did not or are not expected to result in an incurred loss. The information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2009 to 2017 is presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Casualty - Primary Occurrence (in thousands, except number of claims) Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 For the Years Ended December 31, Cumulative Number of Reported AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 Total IBNR Claims 2009 $ 85,476 $ 119,957 $ 99,765 $ 91,441 $ 86,888 $ 82,651 $ 81,138 $ 80,518 $ 80,350 $ 81,445 $ 2,202 5,713 2010 87,875 96,582 93,589 88,820 85,034 80,289 78,685 78,991 80,216 2,392 6,117 2011 91,139 98,428 94,145 89,622 86,342 83,181 82,193 82,248 3,180 5,851 2012 91,807 78,406 65,893 61,072 59,028 59,488 60,328 3,502 5,163 2013 80,823 67,297 62,882 60,329 60,162 59,556 6,538 4,287 2014 88,092 79,497 71,592 67,237 66,389 12,492 4,242 2015 94,835 84,975 83,579 78,675 21,351 4,311 2016 101,950 96,753 90,611 38,505 4,148 2017 119,741 111,391 64,662 4,119 2018 141,513 109,482 3,773 Total $ 852,372 Cumulative Paid Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 1,972 $ 9,233 $ 24,115 $ 43,702 $ 58,460 $ 65,913 $ 70,220 $ 74,920 $ 75,948 $ 77,175 2010 2,587 13,025 29,312 44,051 55,992 61,929 66,399 69,514 73,318 2011 5,924 17,124 32,978 48,822 60,769 67,358 71,413 74,814 2012 5,897 14,539 23,889 33,822 43,276 47,970 51,611 2013 6,334 13,021 22,366 34,786 40,609 45,753 2014 11,436 18,771 29,545 40,270 47,343 2015 10,157 19,902 33,020 45,056 2016 10,142 24,186 35,764 2017 13,154 25,933 2018 15,066 * Presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Total $ 491,833 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 11,911 Liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 372,450 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % % % % % % % % % Casualty - Excess Occurrence (in thousands, except number of claims) Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 For the Years Ended December 31, Cumulative Number of Reported AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 Total IBNR Claims 2009 $ 30,267 $ 19,719 $ 14,981 $ 12,893 $ 12,966 $ 12,459 $ 12,601 $ 11,982 $ 12,055 $ 12,072 $ 285 567 2010 29,314 24,244 22,111 18,932 20,044 22,044 21,018 20,530 20,527 369 500 2011 26,272 17,148 17,443 18,641 19,160 20,959 21,295 22,032 824 581 2012 29,042 21,558 21,021 21,885 21,231 22,433 23,020 1,386 855 2013 39,984 34,824 26,857 25,425 25,599 24,922 3,488 933 2014 50,889 39,095 35,119 32,274 33,372 8,832 875 2015 53,672 50,857 47,392 42,840 14,320 669 2016 56,341 49,385 37,676 25,675 572 2017 62,863 55,868 43,891 473 2018 69,362 63,524 258 Total $ 341,691 Cumulative Paid Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 956 $ 3,947 $ 6,585 $ 9,460 $ 11,001 $ 10,808 $ 11,776 $ 11,780 $ 11,786 $ 11,787 2010 7 6,002 10,705 13,282 15,512 17,302 19,175 19,256 19,308 2011 2,169 5,145 6,981 8,793 10,772 16,494 17,769 20,214 2012 1,315 3,573 8,843 15,380 16,879 17,747 19,310 2013 1,060 5,701 10,967 14,545 16,967 17,956 2014 1,899 4,006 11,002 18,852 22,541 2015 2,048 10,127 19,571 23,184 2016 1,068 3,396 7,441 2017 17 5,679 2018 2,506 * Presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Total $ 149,926 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 17,918 Liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 209,683 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % % % % % % % % % Casualty - Claims Made (in thousands, except number of claims) Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 For the Years Ended December 31, Cumulative Number of Reported AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 Total IBNR Claims 2009 $ 12,918 $ 13,703 $ 9,687 $ 13,562 $ 11,710 $ 13,117 $ 12,810 $ 12,053 $ 11,827 $ 16,056 $ 398 383 2010 13,690 15,556 9,776 10,429 11,689 10,581 9,175 9,024 8,735 219 502 2011 17,416 17,454 12,260 10,619 8,510 7,720 7,852 11,506 640 682 2012 27,576 26,144 20,727 19,590 18,022 17,612 17,569 1,251 803 2013 40,095 41,488 44,054 40,288 38,473 37,959 3,751 1,042 2014 53,929 55,386 58,152 55,350 51,554 7,271 1,304 2015 55,006 47,831 42,206 39,906 10,559 1,335 2016 59,992 67,760 69,493 23,817 1,500 2017 60,572 62,450 35,365 1,627 2018 66,128 50,820 1,272 Total $ 381,356 Cumulative Paid Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 113 $ 442 $ 773 $ 3,413 $ 5,176 $ 10,678 $ 11,217 $ 11,398 $ 11,475 $ 11,955 2010 259 1,548 2,308 3,626 5,733 5,749 6,956 8,485 8,512 2011 330 1,949 4,508 5,947 5,637 6,209 6,835 7,132 2012 433 4,086 6,898 9,218 10,968 14,378 15,621 2013 792 7,073 18,425 26,121 29,678 32,789 2014 1,705 9,775 27,923 35,755 40,080 2015 2,215 10,738 16,774 20,920 2016 2,060 14,558 27,465 2017 2,455 11,350 2018 1,964 * Presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Total $ 177,788 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 933 Liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 204,501 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % % % % % % % % % Casualty - Transportation (in thousands, except number of claims) Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 For the Years Ended December 31, Cumulative Number of Reported AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 Total IBNR Claims 2009 $ 26,349 $ 23,366 $ 23,174 $ 22,929 $ 22,613 $ 22,340 $ 21,958 $ 21,969 $ 21,926 $ 21,911 $ 19 2,644 2010 27,239 23,390 24,912 25,593 23,981 23,625 23,701 23,786 23,776 44 2,843 2011 22,957 23,479 25,747 25,272 25,431 25,376 25,167 25,614 52 2,469 2012 21,452 22,203 22,924 23,511 23,689 23,620 23,305 76 2,284 2013 32,742 32,853 32,989 37,673 38,811 39,974 350 2,852 2014 38,361 33,015 36,452 38,590 40,202 911 3,099 2015 38,561 46,258 47,021 46,395 3,824 3,179 2016 50,430 53,519 54,105 7,632 3,920 2017 55,640 53,641 16,406 3,597 2018 57,597 16,690 3,154 Total $ 386,520 Cumulative Paid Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 5,035 $ 8,698 $ 14,613 $ 19,933 $ 21,100 $ 21,325 $ 21,640 $ 21,650 $ 21,650 $ 21,650 2010 6,296 10,116 15,475 20,045 21,792 23,063 23,488 23,533 23,556 2011 5,295 9,485 14,477 19,443 22,375 23,537 23,941 24,377 2012 4,466 8,533 12,394 17,318 20,931 22,566 22,730 2013 5,306 11,978 19,761 28,220 33,480 35,923 2014 7,125 13,933 19,676 27,457 33,190 2015 6,984 20,709 29,554 37,222 2016 8,923 18,354 30,354 2017 7,979 17,070 2018 6,980 * Presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Total $ 253,052 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 90 Liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 133,558 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % % % % % % % % % Property (in thousands, except number of claims) Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 For the Years Ended December 31, Cumulative Number of Reported AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 Total IBNR Claims 2009 $ 59,975 $ 55,821 $ 52,286 $ 49,534 $ 48,969 $ 48,857 $ 48,707 $ 49,267 $ 49,323 $ 48,925 $ 13 2,630 2010 63,194 59,145 55,427 53,937 54,153 52,927 52,964 52,952 52,903 29 2,851 2011 70,246 66,924 64,976 63,724 62,770 62,570 62,456 62,875 142 3,028 2012 85,485 80,155 79,181 77,569 79,175 78,125 78,161 167 2,640 2013 63,864 62,090 62,173 62,114 61,914 61,834 273 2,995 2014 56,587 49,441 48,801 48,761 49,217 315 4,560 2015 59,863 56,103 53,958 52,720 680 4,076 2016 62,900 55,594 55,384 2,093 3,369 2017 90,803 83,273 9,346 2,873 2018 89,091 23,235 2,030 Total $ 634,383 Cumulative Paid Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 25,464 $ 40,775 $ 43,758 $ 46,004 $ 48,031 $ 48,297 $ 48,329 $ 49,051 $ 49,173 $ 48,898 2010 25,274 43,091 47,743 50,055 52,729 52,426 52,719 52,851 52,855 2011 27,676 48,756 55,778 59,099 60,272 61,428 61,834 62,729 2012 39,074 66,509 72,057 73,705 75,640 76,152 77,159 2013 32,208 50,840 57,407 59,259 60,520 61,195 2014 30,550 43,380 46,148 46,528 47,799 2015 32,184 49,348 50,197 51,290 2016 33,134 46,921 51,371 2017 41,314 66,818 2018 37,048 * Presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Total $ 557,162 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 17 Liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 77,238 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % % % % % % % % -0.6 % Surety (in thousands, except number of claims) Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, 2018 For the Years Ended December 31, Cumulative Number of Reported AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 Total IBNR Claims 2009 $ 15,474 $ 4,896 $ 4,708 $ 4,246 $ 4,146 $ 4,551 $ 4,288 $ 4,923 $ 4,860 $ 4,935 $ 2 1,665 2010 13,961 8,205 6,630 7,076 6,810 7,136 7,645 6,244 6,580 14 1,540 2011 13,842 17,832 17,792 17,321 16,766 16,695 16,480 18,281 13 1,674 2012 17,114 11,452 8,667 8,180 7,867 7,471 7,099 22 1,469 2013 16,080 7,516 6,170 5,399 5,271 5,231 50 1,400 2014 16,450 8,106 5,225 4,427 4,267 88 1,337 2015 16,958 12,957 11,113 10,456 824 1,201 2016 18,928 11,062 9,351 1,543 1,307 2017 16,127 8,641 3,630 1,409 2018 16,765 14,535 654 Total $ 91,606 Cumulative Paid Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, AY 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 892 $ 1,914 $ 2,382 $ 2,493 $ 3,490 $ 4,336 $ 3,919 $ 3,908 $ 4,849 $ 4,933 2010 1,724 3,205 5,702 7,092 7,151 7,285 7,822 6,663 6,637 2011 8,160 16,932 17,151 17,403 17,212 17,086 17,086 17,013 2012 1,883 6,680 6,726 7,416 7,536 7,406 7,065 2013 1,116 2,856 4,701 4,911 5,098 5,150 2014 722 4,283 4,166 4,059 4,131 2015 3,192 6,719 7,695 9,436 2016 3,087 5,817 6,299 2017 979 2,862 2018 1,835 * Presented as unaudited required supplementary information. Total $ 65,361 All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance 1,992 Liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 28,237 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % % % % % -1.3 % -6.1 % % % The following is a reconciliation of the net incurred and paid loss development tables to the liability for unpaid losses and settlement expenses in the consolidated balance sheet: Reconciliation of the Disclosure of Incurred and Paid Loss Development to the Liability for Unpaid Losses and Settlement Expenses (in thousands) December 31, 2018 December 31, 2017 Net outstanding liabilities: Casualty - Primary Occurrence $ 372,450 $ 325,182 Casualty - Excess Occurrence 209,683 188,963 Casualty - Claims Made 204,501 171,241 Casualty - Transportation 133,558 119,704 Property 77,238 68,867 Surety 28,237 23,375 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses 50,891 48,844 Allowance for uncollectible reinsurance balances recoverable on unpaid losses and settlement expenses 9,793 10,014 Other 9,998 13,322 Liabilities for unpaid loss and settlement expenses, net of reinsurance $ 1,096,349 $ 969,512 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims: Casualty - Primary Occurrence $ 34,742 $ 36,158 Casualty - Excess Occurrence 81,072 74,400 Casualty - Claims Made 144,921 117,436 Casualty - Transportation 50,748 46,590 Property 50,495 28,613 Surety 11,834 7,079 Allowance for uncollectible reinsurance balances recoverable on unpaid losses and settlement expenses Other 980 1,729 Total reinsurance balances recoverable on unpaid losses and settlement expenses $ 364,999 $ 301,991 Total gross liability for unpaid loss and settlement expenses $ 1,461,348 $ 1,271,503 DETERMINATION OF IBNR Initial carried IBNR reserves are determined through a reserve estimation process. For most casualty and surety products, this process involves the use of an initial loss and allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) ratio that is applied to the earned premium for a given period. Payments and case reserves are subtracted from this initial estimate of ultimate loss and ALAE to determine a carried IBNR reserve. For most property products, the IBNR reserves are determined by IBNR percentages applied to premium earned. The percentages are determined based on historical reporting patterns and are updated periodically. No deductions for paid or case reserves are made. Shortly after natural or man-made catastrophes, we review insured locations exposed to the event and model losses based on our own exposures and industry loss estimates of the event. We also consider our knowledge of frequency and severity from early claim reports to determine an appropriate reserve for the catastrophe. Adjustments to the initial loss ratio by product and segment are made where necessary and reflect updated assumptions regarding loss experience, loss trends, price changes and prevailing risk factors. Actuaries perform a ground-up reserve study of the expected value of the unpaid loss and LAE derived using multiple standard actuarial methodologies on a quarterly basis. Each method produces an estimate of ultimate loss by accident year. We review all of these various estimates and assign weights to each based on the characteristics of the product being reviewed. These estimates are then compared to the carried loss reserves to determine the appropriateness of the current reserve balance. In addition, an emergence analysis is completed quarterly to determine if further adjustments are necessary. Upon completion of our loss and LAE estimation analysis, a review of the resulting variance between the indicated reserves and the carried reserves takes place. Our actuaries make a recommendation to management in regards to booked reserves that reflect their analytical assessment and view of estimation risk. After discussion of these analyses and all relevant risk factors, the Loss Reserve Committee, a panel of management including the lead reserving actuary, chief executive officer, chief operating officer, chief financial officer and other executives, confirms the appropriateness of the reserve balances. DEVELOPMENT OF IBNR RESERVES The following table summarizes our prior accident years’ loss reserve development by segment for 2018, 2017 and 2016: (FAVORABLE)/UNFAVORABLE RESERVE DEVELOPMENT BY SEGMENT (in thousands) 2018 2017 2016 Casualty $ (33,252) $ (17,462) $ (32,401) Property (10,813) (12,134) (4,793) Surety (5,885) (9,272) (4,800) Total $ (49,950) $ (38,868) $ (41,994) A discussion of significant components of reserve development for the three most recent calendar years follows: 2018. We experienced favorable emergence relative to prior years’ reserve estimates in all of our segments during 2018. Development from the casualty segment totaled $33.3 million, inclusive of unallocated loss and adjustment expenses (ULAE). The largest amounts of favorable development came from accident years 2015 through 2017. We continued to experience emergence that was generally better than previously estimated. We attribute the favorable emergence to loss trends in most lines outperforming our long-term expectations. Further, we believe our underwriters’ risk selection contributed to the Company experiencing less loss cost inflation than originally anticipated. The primary occurrence grouping had favorable development of $15.6 million, driven by our general liability product with $6.7 million of favorable development. The excess occurrence grouping had favorable development of $21.4 million, with commercial insureds contributing $10.8 million and personal insureds contributing the remainder. Claims made exposures had adverse development of $3.9 million driven by medical errors and omissions coverages. Transportation had $0.5 million of favorable development. Our marine product was the predominant driver of the favorable development in the property segment, accounting for $5.0 million of the $10.8 million total favorable development for the segment, inclusive of ULAE. Accident years 2015 through 2017 made the largest contribution. Our excess and surplus lines commercial property product and assumed reinsurance products also contributed $2.0 million and $2.8 million of favorable development, respectively. The surety segment experienced $5.9 million of favorable development, inclusive of ULAE. The majority of the favorable development came from the 2017 accident year, which served to offset the unfavorable development from accident years 2011 and 2016. Commercial and energy surety contributed favorable development of $4.6 million and $1.7 million, respectively. Miscellaneous surety experienced adverse development totaling $0.8 million. 2017. We experienced favorable emergence relative to prior years’ reserve estimates in all of our segments during 2017. The casualty segment contributed $17.5 million in favorable development, inclusive of ULAE. Accident years 2014, 2015 and 2016 contributed significantly to the favorable development. This was predominantly caused by favorable frequency and severity trends that continued to be better than our long-term expectations. In addition, we believe this to be the result of our underwriters’ risk selection, which has mostly offset price declines and loss cost inflation. Nearly all of our casualty products contributed to the favorable development. Within the primary occurrence grouping, the general liability product contributed $4.6 million to our favorable development with all coverages contributing to the favorable development in 2017. Small commercial products were the second largest contributor with $3.2 million in favorable development. Within the excess occurrence grouping, personal umbrella and commercial excess were favorable by $1.1 million and $9.9 million, respectively. Within the claims made grouping, our executive products had favorable contributions of $4.4 million, while medical professional liability was adverse $3.7 million. Transportation was adverse $7.4 million for the year, but posted favorable experience during the last three quarters of the year. The marine product was the primary driver of the favorable development in the property segment. Marine contributed $6.8 million of the $12.1 million total favorable property development, inclusive of ULAE. Accident years 2015 and 2016 contributed to the marine products’ favorable development. Commercial property was favorable $3.2 million. The surety segment experienced favorable development of $9.3 million, inclusive of ULAE. The majority of the favorable development was from accident year 2016. Contract and commercial surety products were the main contributors with favorable development of $4.4 million and $3.5 million, respectively. Energy surety had favorable development of $1.5 million and miscellaneous surety had unfavorable development of $0.1 million. 2016. We experienced favorable emergence relative to prior years’ reserve estimates in all of our segments during 2016. The casualty segment contributed $32.4 million in favorable development, inclusive of ULAE, which is excluded from the incurred loss and loss adjustment expense tables above. Accident year 2015 contributed significantly to the favorable development, with accident years 2010 to 2014 also continuing to develop favorably. The favorable development in 2016 was smaller than 2015 but continued to reflect favorable frequency and severity trends. In addition, the risk selection by our underwriters continued to provide better results than estimated in our reserving process. Within the primary occurrence grouping, the general liability product contributed $17.6 million to our favorable development. Small commercial products were favorable by $6.2 million. Within the excess occurrence grouping, commercial excess was favorable by $13.8 million which was offset by adverse development in our personal umbrella product of $4.9 million. Within the claims made grouping, executive products contributed $14.7 million in favorable development and miscellaneous professional liability had $0.8 million of favorable development. Transportation experienced unfavorable development of $15.4 million as adverse commercial loss trends resulted in an increase in case reserves for accident years 2013 through 2015. Marine contributed $2.1 million of the $4.8 million total favorable property development, inclusive of ULAE. Accident years 2013 through 2015 contributed to the marine products’ favorable development. Assumed property contributed $2.5 million of favorable development offsetting the unfavorable development of $0.2 million in other direct property products. The surety segment experienced favorable development of $4.8 million, inclusive of ULAE. The majority of the favorable development was from accident year 2015, which offset the unfavorable development from accident years 2008 through 2011 and 2014. Commercial and energy surety products were the main contributors with favorable development of $1.7 million and $1.9 million, respectively. Miscellaneous surety had favorable development of $1.1 million and contract surety had favorable development of $0.1 million. ENVIRONMENTAL, ASBESTOS AND MASS TORT EXPOSURES We are subject to environmental site cleanup, asbestos removal and mass tort claims and exposures through our commercial excess, general liability and discontinued assumed casualty reinsurance lines of business. The majority of the exposure is in the excess layers of our commercial excess and assumed reinsurance books of business. The following table represents paid and unpaid environmental, asbestos and mass tort claims data (including incurred but not reported losses) as of December 31, 2018, 2017 and 2016: (in thousands) 2018 2017 2016 Loss and LAE Payments (Cumulative): Gross $ 136,043 $ 132,883 $ 130,358 Ceded (68,638) (67,507) (66,644) Net $ 67,405 $ 65,376 $ 63,714 Unpaid Losses and LAE at End of Year: Gross $ 24,262 $ 28,042 $ 28,815 Ceded (5,373) (5,715) (4,987) Net $ 18,889 $ 22,327 $ 23,828 Our environmental, asbestos and mass tort exposure is limited, relative to other insurers, as a result of entering the affected liability lines after the insurance industry had already recognized environmental and asbestos exposure as a problem and adopted appropriate coverage exclusions. The majority of our reserves are associated with products that went into runoff at least two decades ago. Some are for assumed reinsurance, some are for excess liability business and some followed from the acquisition of Underwriters Indemnity Company in 1999. During 2018, inception to date incurred environmental, asbestos and mass tort losses decreased slightly. While our environmental exposure is limited, the ultimate liability for this exposure is difficult to assess because of the extensive and complicated litigation involved in the settlement of claims and evolving legislation on issues such as joint and several liability, retroactive liability and standards of cleanup. Additionally, we participate primarily in the excess layers of coverage, where accurate estimates of ultimate loss are more difficult to derive than for primary coverage. |