Principal Risks and Uncertainties
Set out below are certain risk factors that could adversely affect NatWest Group’s future results, its financial condition and/or prospects and cause them to be materially different from what is forecast or expected, and directly or indirectly impact the value of its securities. These risk factors are broadly categorised and should be read in conjunction with other sections of this annual report, including the forward-looking statements section, the strategic report and the risk and capital management section. They should not be regarded as a complete and comprehensive statement of all potential risks and uncertainties facing NatWest Group.
Economic and political risk
NatWest Group, its customers and its counterparties face continued economic and political risks and uncertainties in the UK and global markets, including as a result of high inflation and rising interest rates, supply chain disruption and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
NatWest Group is affected by global economic and market conditions. Uncertain and volatile economic conditions can create a challenging operating environment for financial services companies such as NatWest Group. The outlook for the global economy has many uncertainties including: falling economic activity, high inflation, rising interest rates, elevated energy prices and higher cost-of-living, supply chain disruption, changes to monetary and fiscal policy, and the impact of armed conflict (in particular the Russian invasion of Ukraine).
These conditions, including the current cost-of-living crisis, could be worsened by a number of factors including: instability in the global financial system, market volatility and change, fluctuations in the value of the pound sterling, new or extended economic sanctions, the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic volatility in emerging markets, volatility in commodity prices or concerns regarding sovereign debt or sovereign credit ratings. Economic conditions may also be affected by the changing demographics in the markets that NatWest Group serves, increasing social and other inequalities, or rapid changes to the economic environment due to the adoption of technology, automation and artificial intelligence, or due to climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and/or other sustainability risks.
NatWest Group is also exposed to risks arising out of geopolitical events or political developments, such as exchange controls and other measures taken by sovereign governments that may hinder economic or financial activity levels. Unfavourable political, military or diplomatic events, increasing geopolitical tensions leading to armed conflict, protectionist policies or trade barriers, secession movements or the exit of other member states from the EU, changes to monetary and fiscal policy, new and widespread public health crises (including any epidemics or pandemics), state and privately sponsored cyber and terrorist acts or threats, and the responses to each of the above economic, political or other scenarios by various governments and markets, could have a material adverse effect on the business and performance of NatWest Group, including as a result of the indirect impact on regional or global trade and/or NatWest Group’s customers and counterparties.
The UK experienced significant political uncertainty in 2022 that may persist into the foreseeable future. This could lead to a loss of confidence in the UK, that could in turn, negatively impact companies operating in the UK. NatWest Group also faces political uncertainty in Scotland as a result of a possible second Scottish independence referendum. Independence may adversely affect NatWest Group both in relation to entities incorporated in Scotland and in other jurisdictions. Any changes to Scotland’s relationship with the UK or the EU may adversely affect the environment in which NatWest Group and its subsidiaries operate and may require further changes to NatWest Group, independently or in conjunction with other mandatory or strategic structural and organisational changes, any of which could adversely affect NatWest Group.
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted many changes that may prove to be permanent shifts in customer behaviour and economic activity, such as changes in spending patterns and significantly more people working in a more flexible manner. These changes may affect asset prices, the economic environment, and NatWest Group’s customers’ and counterparties’ financial performance and needs. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks, governments, regulators, and legislatures in the UK and elsewhere offered unprecedented levels of support and various schemes to assist businesses and individuals, many of which have since been curtailed or withdrawn. However, risks remain as to whether these loans will be repaid.
The value of NatWest Group’s own and other securities may be materially affected by market risk, including as a result of market fluctuations. Market volatility, illiquid market conditions and disruptions in the credit markets may make it extremely difficult to value certain of NatWest Group’s own and other securities, particularly during periods of market displacement. This could cause a decline in the value of NatWest Group’s own and other securities, which may have a material adverse effect on NatWest Group’s results of operations in future periods, or inaccurate carrying values for certain financial instruments.
In addition, financial markets are susceptible to severe events evidenced by rapid depreciation in asset values, which may be accompanied by a reduction in asset liquidity. Under these conditions, hedging and other risk management strategies may not be as effective at mitigating losses as they would be under more normal market conditions. Moreover, under these conditions, market participants are particularly exposed to trading strategies employed by many market participants simultaneously and on a large scale, increasing NatWest Group’s counterparty risk. NatWest Group’s risk management and monitoring processes seek to quantify and mitigate NatWest Group’s exposure to more extreme market moves. However, market events have historically been difficult to predict, and NatWest Group, its customers and its counterparties could realise significant losses if extreme market events were to occur.
Any of the above may have a material adverse effect on NatWest Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
Changes in interest rates have significantly affected, and will continue to affect, NatWest Group’s business and results.
NatWest Group’s performance is affected by changes in interest rates. Benchmark overnight interest rates, such as the UK base rate, increased in 2022 and are expected to continue to rise in the short-term accompanied by quantitative tightening. However, forward rates at 31 December 2022 suggested interest rates may fall again in the medium-term.
Stable interest rates support predictable income flow and less volatility in asset and liability valuations, although persistently low and negative interest rates, such as those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, are generally expected to be less favourable for banks.
For NatWest Group, persistently low interest rates may reduce the yield on its lower interest income.