Queensland Treasury 18-K/A Annual report (foreign governments) (amended)

EXHIBIT (c)(xiv)

2024-25 Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This exhibit contains forward-looking statements. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the State of Queensland’s (the “State” or “Queensland”) beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current plans, budgets, estimates and projections and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them. The words “believe”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “estimate”, “continue”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “expect”, “forecast” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and neither the Queensland Treasury Corporation nor the State undertake any obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events.

Forward-looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections and, therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on them. Although the Queensland Treasury Corporation and the State believe that the beliefs and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such beliefs and expectations will prove to have been correct. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that actual results may differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement. Factors that could cause the actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements include:

• the international and Australian economies, and in particular the rates of growth (or contraction) of the State’s major trading partners;

• the effects, both internationally and in Australia, of any economic downturn, as well as the effect of ongoing economic, banking and sovereign debt risk;

• the effect of natural disasters, epidemics and geopolitical events, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East;

• increases or decreases in international and Australian domestic interest rates;

• changes in and increased volatility in currency exchange rates;

• changes in the State’s domestic consumption;

• changes in the State’s labor force participation and productivity;

• downgrades in the credit ratings of the State or Australia;

• changes in the rate of inflation in the State;

• changes in environmental and other regulation; and

• changes in the distribution of revenue from the Commonwealth of Australia Government to the State.

(c)(xiv)-1

MID-YEAR FISCAL
AND ECONOMIC REVIEW
2024–25

© The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2025

This publication is protected by the Copyright Act 1968

This document is licensed by the State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) International licence.

In essence, you are free to copy, communicate and adapt this publication, as long as you attribute the work to the State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury).

Content from the 2024–25 Mid-year fiscal and economic review should be attributed to:

© The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) Mid-year fiscal and economic review (MYFER) 2024–25.

The Queensland Government is committed to providing accessible services to Queenslanders from all cultural and linguistic backgrounds. If you have difficulty in understanding this publication, you can contact us on telephone (07) 3035 3503 and we will arrange an interpreter to effectively communicate the report to you.

MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

CONTENTS

Overview - the state of Queensland’s finances	2
Economic overview	5
Fiscal overview	6
Net operating balance	6
Revenue	8
Expenses	10
Balance sheet	11
Capital program	12
Uniform Presentation Framework	13
Economic and revenue assumptions	22
Economic assumptions	22
Taxation and royalty revenue	22
Royalty assumptions	23
Exchange rate and commodity prices and volumes	23
Interest rates	23
Fiscal aggregates	24

 

 

Overview – the state of Queensland’s finances

Respect for Queenslanders’ money is a foundational commitment of the Government. This starts with being transparent about the state of Queensland’s finances. The 2024–25 Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review (MYFER) is an updated assessment of the financial position inherited from the former government.

Since coming to office, the Government has worked methodically to identify funding shortfalls, including underfunded frontline services and programs across the forward estimates, known funding pressures in demand-driven service delivery agencies, and capital projects with substantial cost overruns. Provision for these identified budget shortfalls is now included in MYFER, presenting the baseline from which the state’s budget position must improve.

In addition to updated revenue forecasts, MYFER also incorporates the Government’s costed election commitments, net of identified savings, which represent an overall improvement to the operating balance across the forward estimates.

When underfunded legacy issues are accounted for, unallocated savings of the former government reversed, and other adjustments incorporated, Queensland’s net operating balance deteriorates by $2.3 billion in 2024–25 to a forecast deficit of $4.9 billion, and across the forward estimates, the position worsens dramatically.

The forecast operating deficit in 2025–26 is $6.9 billion, with deficits of $9.2 billion projected each year in 2026–27 and 2027–28. The three projected deficits from 2025–26 onwards would each be the largest on record, surpassing the $5.7 billion deficit recorded in 2019–20 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The deficits projected in MYFER from 2024–25 to 2027–28 total $30.2 billion.

Chart 1 shows the changes in the General Government Net Operating Balance between the 2024–25 Budget and the 2024–25 MYFER.

Chart 1: General Government Sector Net Operating Balance – 2024–25 Budget compared to 2024–25 MYFER

 

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MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

The Non-financial Public Sector (NFPS) 4-year capital program to 2027–28 has been revised upward by $22.6 billion to $129.9 billion, compared to $107.3 billion in the 2024–25 Budget. The upward revisions reflect significant cost escalations in the program and funding decisions taken by the former government after the 2024–25 Budget but prior to the 2024 State General Election. Since 2016–17, the 4-year capital program has more than tripled over this time reflecting a range of decisions made by the former government. Chart 2 shows changes in the capital program over time.

Chart 2: Non-financial Public Sector capital program

Note:

1.  Capital programs from 2024–25 to 2027–28 are forecasts as published in the 2024–25 Budget.

An unprecedented acceleration in borrowing would be required to fund these operating deficits as well as the identified cost overruns across the capital program.

Total non-financial public sector (NFPS) borrowings are projected to more than double from $106.4 billion in 2023–24 to a record $217.8 billion by 2027–28. NFPS borrowing by 2027–28 has increased by $45.8 billion from the $172 billion projected in the 2024–25 Budget to $217.8 billion. Chart 3 shows the change in NFPS borrowing between the 2024–25 Budget and 2024–25 MYFER and growth over the forward estimates.

Chart 3: Non-financial Public Sector borrowing – growth from 2024–25 Budget to 2024–25 MYFER

 

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The rapid acceleration of borrowing projected in MYFER sees Queensland move from having the lowest levels NFPS borrowing per capita of the major states to the highest in just 4 years, surpassing Victoria in 2027–28. Chart 4 shows the Non-financial Public Sector borrowing per capita for Queensland, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (Vic) as published in their respective 2024–25 MYFER documents.

Chart 4: Non-financial Public Sector borrowing per capita compared to NSW and Victoria

Note:

1.  Data sourced from NSW’s 2024-25 Half-Yearly Review and Victoria’s 2024-25 Budget Update.

The unprecedented quantum of the inherited deficits, and the projected rapid accumulation of debt is unsustainable.

The 2025-26 Budget will be developed in a methodical manner with the objective to deliver a safe and secure pathway to drive budget improvement, with lower debt than under the policy settings of the former government. Despite record revenue windfalls and record spending levels announced in recent Budgets, there are measurable outcomes that have declined. For example, ambulance ramping rates as well as the number of victims of crime and people unable to find a place to call home remain of concern.

Every taxpayer dollar must achieve the maximum value for Queenslanders. A strong, empowered Queensland public service, and a focus on kickstarting productivity in the economy to drive-down costs across industry will be key to delivering this.

 

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Economic overview

Queensland’s economy grew by 2.1 per cent in 2023–24, driven by a substantial rebound in net exports and continued growth in the domestic economy.

Domestically, sustained high interest rates continue to constrain household budgets and spending, while a range of factors, including material and labour shortages, poor weather, construction company insolvencies and low productivity growth have limited growth in dwelling investment. 

Queensland’s economic growth is forecast to strengthen to 2¹⁄₂ per cent in 2024–25, albeit slower than the 3 per cent forecast in the 2024–25 Budget, reflecting weaker than previously expected private demand and a smaller contribution from the trade sector than expected at Budget.

Economic growth is expected to be sustained at 2¹⁄₂ per cent in 2025–26 as components of the domestic economy, particularly household consumption, regain momentum.

Employment continued to grow strongly in 2023–24, up 3.0 per cent, while the unemployment rate averaged 4.1 per cent. Employment growth is now forecast to be 2¹⁄₂ per cent in 2024–25 (up from 1¹⁄₂ per cent at Budget), and 1¹⁄₂ per cent in 2025–26 (up from 1 per cent forecast at Budget). 

The unemployment rate is expected to remain lower for longer than previously anticipated, averaging 4¹⁄₄ per cent in 2024–25 and 4¹⁄₂ per cent in 2025–26.

Queensland’s economy and labour market continue to face several risks, including the potential for household consumption to be weaker than expected if interest rates remain higher for longer. Meanwhile, capacity constraints and elevated building costs could continue to hinder activity in the construction industry. 

The external environment, both nationally and globally, also remains highly uncertain. Further, any revival in protectionist policies could impact global trade and commodity prices, while the extent to which China’s stimulus packages are successful in supporting domestic activity will shape ongoing demand for Queensland’s major exports. Table 1 outlines the economic forecasts based on actuals, 2024–25 Budget, and 2024–25 MYFER.

Table 1: Queensland Economic Forecasts¹

	2023–24	2024–25		2025–26
	Actuals	Budget	MYFER	Budget	MYFER
Gross state product2	2.1	3	21⁄2	21⁄2	21⁄2
State final demand	3.0	31⁄4	21⁄4	23⁄4	3
Employment	3.0	11⁄2	21⁄2	1	11⁄2
Unemployment rate3	4.1	41⁄2	41⁄4	43⁄4	41⁄2
Inflation4	4.1	2	2	31⁄4	31⁄4
Wage price index	4.7	33⁄4	33⁄4	31⁄2	31⁄2
Population	2.5	11⁄2	13⁄4	11⁄2	11⁄2

Notes:

1.  Unless otherwise stated, all figures are annual percentage changes.

2.  Chain volume measure (CVM), 2022-23 reference year.

3.  Per cent, year-average.

4.  Brisbane, per cent, year-average.

Sources: ABS Annual State Accounts, Labour Force, Consumer Price Index, Wage Price Index and National, State and Territory Population, and Queensland Treasury.

 

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Fiscal overview

Table 2: Key fiscal aggregates¹

	2023–24 Actual2 $ million		2024–25 Budget $ million		2024–25 MYFER $ million		2025–26 Projection $ million		2026–27 Projection $ million		2027–28 Projection $ million
General Government Sector
Revenue		89,768		88,107		88,071		89,286		91,278		95,749
Expenses		88,087		90,738		92,983		96,211		100,451		104,939
Net operating balance		1,681		(2,631)		(4,911)		(6,926)		(9,173)		(9,190)
PNFA3		10,507		12,831		14,189		18,078		19,398		19,463
Fiscal balance		(4,001)		(10,790)		(14,394)		(19,679)		(22,216)		(21,852)
Borrowing		58,773		77,118		77,627		101,784		127,399		153,766
Net debt		5,684		27,407		25,539		48,266		73,338		98,838
Non–financial Public Sector
Borrowing		106,397		124,707		128,085		156,190		187,445		217,826

Notes:

 1. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 2. Reflects published actuals.

 3. PNFA: Purchases of non–financial assets.

Net Operating Balance

A General Government Sector net operating deficit of $4.911 billion is forecast for 2024–25, compared to the estimated operating deficit of $2.631 billion in the 2024–25 Budget.

The revised operating position in 2024–25 reflects:

• higher expense growth reflecting provision of additional funding for unfunded frontline service delivery growth in a range of portfolios, including health and other social services;

• expense and revenue measures taken since the 2024–25 Budget, including addressing under-funding of the justice and corrections system; and

• lower royalty revenue following a fall in coal and oil prices. These revisions are partially offset by an increase in GST revenue and higher than anticipated transfer duty and payroll tax revenue.

The Government’s 2024 State General Election commitments, including funding for the continuation of 50 cent public transport fares have also been incorporated into MYFER estimates.

An operating deficit of $6.926 billion is forecast for 2025–26, before deteriorating further to operating deficits in 2026–27 of $9.173 billion and in 2027–28 of $9.190 billion. The deterioration in net operating balances across the forward estimates largely reflects the fiscal impact of legacy funding issues within key service delivery areas of health, education, child safety and law and order, removal of the former government’s $3 billion in unallocated savings and other parameter adjustments including higher interest costs.

Some state revenues have been upgraded across the remainder of the forward estimates compared to the 2024–25 Budget, with modestly higher payroll tax and transfer duty being notable. The outlook for GST revenue has deteriorated due to a range of factors, including potential material downside impacts to Queensland’s GST share from 2025–26 onwards due to methodology changes implemented as a result of the Commonwealth Grants Commission’s 2025 Methodology Review.

The revised outlook for key state revenues also incorporates the impact of the Queensland Government’s revenue measures, including exempting first home buyers building or purchasing new homes from transfer duty, and exempting payments to general practitioners from payroll tax.

 

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MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

Table 3 provides a breakdown of the movements in the net operating balance since the 2024–25 Queensland Budget.

Table 3: Reconciliation of net operating balance, 2024–25 Budget to 2024–25 MYFER¹

	2024–25  MYFER  $ million		2025–26  Projection  $ million		2026–27  Projection  $ million		2027–28  Projection  $ million
2024–25 Budget net operating balance		(2,631)		(515)		887		2,027
Royalty and land rent revisions		(421)		(10)		16		79
Taxation revisions (excl. General Election Commitments)		209		328		398		408
GST revisions		454		(698)		(252)		(182)
2024 State General Election Commitments (Net)2		238		94		356		804
Expense measures - Government		(115)		(398)		(376)		(403)
Expense measures former government		(133)		(44)		(31)		(50)
Removal of former government unallocated savings		(300)		(750)		(1,000)		(1,000)
Allowance for under-funded legacy issues and other adjustments3		(1,644)		(4,870)		(8,009)		(8,886)
Interest expense		253		(240)		(936)		(1,839)
Other parameter adjustments4		(820)		177		(226)		(147)
2024–25 MYFER net operating balance		(4,911)		(6,926)		(9,173)		(9,190)

Notes:

1. Numbers may not add due to rounding

2. Reflects the net revenue and expense impact of the Government’s costed election commitments, including the impact of saving measures.

3. Allowance for under-funded legacy issues inherited from the former government including provisions addressing under-funding in health, education and child safety services and other growth funding.

4. Other parameter adjustments reflect actuarial adjustments to superannuation liabilities, depreciation, swaps, net flows from PNFC and PFC entities, net impact of Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements, Australian Government funding revisions and deferrals.

 

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Revenue

Overview

The outlook for Queensland’s total key revenues (taxation, royalties and GST) over the forward estimates has been revised only slightly since the 2024–25 Budget. 

Total key revenues are now expected to decline by $2.766 billion (5.1 per cent) to $51.947 billion in 2024–25, and fall further in 2025–26, before returning to solid growth from 2026–27.

Compared to the 2024–25 Budget, the $217.3 million (0.4 per cent) upward revision for key revenues in 2024–25 is due primarily to higher-than-expected GST which has offset a $421.4 million reduction in expected royalty revenue.

In subsequent years, total key revenues have been revised downwards by $443.1 million in 2025–26, followed by upward revisions of $98.4 million in 2026–27 and $240.6 million in 2027–28.

These revisions largely reflect the net impact of:

• ongoing strength of Queensland’s housing and labour markets over recent quarters, resulting in improved expectations for payroll tax and transfer duty over the medium term; and

• a revised outlook for Queensland’s GST revenue, with upgrades to the national GST pool in the Australian Government’s 2024–25 MYEFO being offset by a range of factors that present material downside risks to Queensland’s GST revenue. These include uncertainty around the outlook for consumption, ongoing impacts of cyclical royalty revenue, uncertainty around the potential outcomes of the Commonwealth Grants Commission’s 2025 Methodology Review, and other parameter adjustments.

Chart 5 outlines the changes in the key revenue items – taxes, royalties and GST – since the 2024–25 Budget.

Chart 5: Revisions to key revenues since 2024–25 Budget

Taxation

Taxation revenue is now estimated to total $24.984 billion in 2024–25, $2.325 billion (10.3 per cent) higher than in 2023–24 and $185.1 million (0.7 per cent) higher than estimated in the 2024–25 Budget.

Tax revenue is also expected to be slightly stronger in the subsequent years of the forecast period, with the total upward revisions to tax revenue since the 2024–25 Budget totalling $1.127 billion over the 4 years from 2024–25 to 2027–28.

The recent strength in dwelling prices, wages and employment is contributing to the expected strong growth in taxation revenue in 2024–25. Payroll tax and transfer duty have both been revised upwards, reflecting the strong

 

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MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

performance of Queensland’s labour and housing markets in 2024–25, with flow on impacts expected on the revenue base and growth of these key taxes across the forward estimates period.

Beyond 2024–25, total taxation revenue is expected to grow by around 5.7 per cent per annum on average over the three years to 2027–28, but with the annual rate of growth easing over the period. In addition to the ongoing strength of payroll tax and transfer duty, this solid growth also reflects broad-based growth across most other key taxes in line with the expected performance of the Queensland economy and labour market.

The revised outlook for taxation also incorporates the impact of the Government’s election commitments to provide targeted tax exemptions to first home buyers and patients visiting their GP.

Royalties

Royalty revenue is expected to total $7.984 billion in 2024–25, $4.787 billion (37.5 per cent) lower than in 2023–24 and $421.4 million (5.0 per cent) lower than forecast at the 2024–25 Budget. The downward revision is largely driven by lower than anticipated coal export volumes combined with a faster-than-expected decline in hard coking coal prices, which were only partly offset by a weaker Australian dollar.

Beyond 2024–25, the outlook for total royalties is broadly unchanged compared to the 2024–25 Budget, with further declines in royalty revenue still expected in coming years as commodity prices continue to normalise, before royalty revenue broadly stabilises from 2027–28.

GST

Queensland’s GST revenue is estimated to total $18.979 billion in 2024–25, $304.4 million (1.6 per cent) lower than in 2023–24, and up $453.6 million compared with the outlook at the time of the 2024–25 Budget.

As outlined in the Budget, the expected decline from 2023–24 reflects the Commonwealth Grants Commission’s recommendation in its 2024 Update report that Queensland receive a smaller share of the GST pool in 2024–25 compared with 2023–24. This impact has only partially been offset by impacts of the Australian Government’s upgrades to the national GST pool in 2024–25, as outlined in the Commonwealth MYEFO. 

Reflecting a range of factors that present downside risks to Queensland’s GST, Queensland’s GST revenue is forecast to decline again in 2025–26 by 5.6 per cent. Following this, GST revenue is forecast to grow strongly, by 13.9 per cent in 2026–27 and then 16.3 per cent in 2027–28. These increases are driven by anticipated ongoing growth in the national GST pool and the expectation that the impacts of the higher coal royalties on Queensland’s share of GST will continue to reduce as coal prices continue to moderate.

The Australian Government’s MYEFO forecast an increase in the national GST pool across all years of the forward estimates compared with their previous 2024–25 Budget forecasts. However, there is ongoing uncertainty around the speed of recovery in national consumption in the context of ongoing risks to national and global economic growth.

Further, there are a range of other factors influencing Queensland’s GST share in the short term and across the forecast period, including the ongoing impacts of previous high royalties on Queensland’s GST share and uncertainty around the potential outcomes of the Commonwealth Grants Commission’s 2025 Methodology Review.

A range of other parameters impacting Queensland’s GST revenue outlook have also been updated to reflect outcomes from other state and territory 2024–25 Budgets.

 

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Expenses

General Government Sector expenses in 2024–25 are estimated to total $92.983 billion, which is $2.245 billion higher than the 2024–25 Budget estimate. The increase reflects a number of revisions including:

• addressing funding shortfalls for frontline services and programs, including health and law and order agencies;

• revisions to timing and cost of disaster recovery works to address damage from past natural disasters;

• adjusting provisions for demand-driven services relating to child safety and victims of crime assistance;

• decisions made by the former government after the 2024–25 Budget; and

• decisions made by the Government to address anticipated funding pressures arising from national funding agreements.

Most of these issues also impact the forward estimates and are the key drivers of substantially higher expenses. Higher expenditure on frontline social services is expected to impact the forward estimates arising from the need to address estimated funding shortfalls in large key frontline service delivery agencies, such as health and law and order agencies.

Revisions to timing and cost of disaster recovery works from past natural disasters have also been incorporated into the forward estimates. These forecasts would be impacted by adverse weather events should they occur in the future. If these events do occur, it is expected that these could impact delivery of state initiatives. Disaster related expenses are shared with the Australian Government under the Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements.

Compared to the 2024–25 Budget, other interest expenses are projected to increase by over $3 billion across the 3 years to 2027–28 as borrowings increase rapidly across the forward estimates following the deterioration in operating positions and capital program cost overruns.

General Government Sector expenses across the forward estimates include costed election commitments totalling $4.052 billion, which is offset by $6.9 billion in savings identified in the election commitments with these savings to be allocated to agencies in the 2025–26 Budget.

The $3 billion in savings proposed by the former government in the 2024–25 Budget have been reversed from the forward estimates as they were announced but not allocated to agencies.

Emerging fiscal pressures

Beyond general uncertainties related to budget parameter assumptions, emerging fiscal issues include:

• additional water infrastructure and upgrades to existing infrastructure required over the next decade to meet future water demand, provide drought contingency, and ensure the safety and reliability of Queensland’s dams in line with dam safety guidelines;

• potential material downside impacts to Queensland’s GST share from 2025–26 onwards due to methodology changes implemented as a result of the Commonwealth Grants Commission’s 2025 Methodology Review; and

• the potential liability for the State with respect to compensation arising from acts that have extinguished or impaired native title since 1975.

 

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Balance sheet

General Government Sector borrowing is estimated to be $77.627 billion by 30 June 2025, which is $509 million higher than projected in the budget.

By June 2027–28, General Government Sector borrowing is expected to be $153.766 billion, $42.4 billion higher than the 2024–25 Budget estimate. This is largely due to legacy service delivery expenses and cost escalations within the State’s capital program.

General Government Sector net debt is expected to be $25.5 billion by 30 June 2025, which is $1.9 billion lower than anticipated at the 2024–25 Queensland Budget. However, consistent with the rapid escalation in borrowings, net debt deteriorates significantly over the forward estimates.

Public Non-financial Corporations (PNFC) Sector debt is primarily held by government-owned operations and is supported by income-generating assets including key pieces of economic infrastructure.

PNFC Sector borrowing is estimated to be $64.1 billion by June 2028, $3.5 billion more than at the 2024–25 Budget largely reflecting cost escalations to capital projects.

The Non-financial Public Sector (NFPS) is a consolidation of the General Government and PNFC sectors, with transactions between these sectors eliminated.

NFPS borrowing is expected to be $128.1 billion by June 2025.

By June 2028, NFPS borrowing is estimated to be $217.8 billion, $45.8 billion higher than the 2024–25 Budget estimate.

 

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Capital program

The Non-financial Public Sector (NFPS) capital program for the period 2024–25 to 2027–28 is $129.9 billion. The capital program comprises $114.1 billion of purchases of non-financial assets (PNFA), $14.3 billion of capital grant expenses, and acquisitions of non-financial assets under finance leases and similar arrangements of $1.4 billion. This compares to the 2024–25 Budget 4-year capital program estimate of $107.3 billion.

The $22.6 billion increase in the program over the forward estimates is due to significant cost escalations in the State’s capital program, funding decisions taken by the former government after the 2024–25 Budget but prior to the 2024 State General Election, and incorporation of the Government’s election commitments for infrastructure and capital grant spending. Funding decisions made by the former government prior to the 2024 State General Election include further staged implementation of the European Train Control system across the rail network, and cost escalations identified up to that time for Gold Coast Light Rail and Cross River Rail projects.

Cost pressures account for most of the increase in the capital program and relate to:

• the health Capacity Expansion Program and various hospital upgrades;

• a raft of water projects across the State, including Paradise Dam rebuild and various dam safety and water security projects;

• CopperString 2032 transmission line;

• transport infrastructure builds and upgrades through the Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program;

• the athletes’ villages for the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games; and

• various projects across agencies to support future service delivery.

Other significant drivers include additional funding for Bruce Highway upgrades and upward revisions to disaster recovery works. Growth in the capital program has been tempered to some extent by cessation of the Pioneer-Burdekin pumped hydro project.

The NFPS capital program has increased significantly over the last 2 years, with the current program more than double the 2022–23 Budget 4-year capital program of $59.1 billion. This growth can be ascribed to a range of factors, including the:

• impact of the large government capital program on the capacity of the infrastructure and construction sectors in Queensland to deliver, leading to delays and material cost inflation;

• magnitude and pace of the former government’s Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan; and

• impact of government mandated workplace arrangements, particularly through the Best Practice Industry Conditions (BPICs) which impact primarily on larger projects (over $100 million) and which increase costs and reduce productivity.

 

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Uniform Presentation Framework

Table 4: General Government Sector Operating Statement¹

		2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
		Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
		$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
	Revenue from Transactions
	Taxation revenue		22,659			24,799			24,984			26,838			28,244			29,545
	Grants revenue		40,064			40,278			40,357			40,953			42,619			46,125
	Sales of goods and services		7,143			7,333			7,408			7,650			7,419			7,281
	Interest income		3,617			3,501			3,519			3,354			3,396			3,453
	Dividend and income tax equivalent income		1,477			1,771			1,776			1,769			1,641			1,457
	Other revenue		14,807			10,425			10,027			8,721			7,958			7,887
	Total Revenue from Transactions		89,768			88,107			88,071			89,286			91,278			95,749
Less	Expenses from Transactions
	Employee expenses		33,264			35,217			35,417			37,597			39,943			42,452
	Superannuation expenses
	Superannuation interest cost		789			758			828			744			680			632
	Other superannuation expenses		4,071			4,108			4,393			4,638			4,948			5,253
	Other operating expenses		25,901			25,153			26,833			26,232			26,921			27,395
	Depreciation and amortisation		5,441			5,716			5,754			6,027			6,383			6,795
	Other interest expenses		2,020			2,655			2,401			3,664			5,068			6,602
	Grants expenses		16,601			17,131			17,358			17,309			16,508			15,810
	Total Expenses from Transactions		88,087			90,738			92,983			96,211			100,451			104,939
Equals	Net Operating Balance		1,681			(2,631	)		(4,911	)		(6,926	)		(9,173	)		(9,190	)
Plus	Other economic flows - included in operating result		4,038			85			116			(248	)		(246	)		(226	)
Equals	Operating Result		5,719			(2,547	)		(4,795	)		(7,173	)		(9,419	)		(9,416	)
Plus	Other economic flows - other movements in equity		21,456			3,235			3,331			3,889			4,342			4,193
Equals	Comprehensive Result - Total Change In Net Worth		27,174			689			(1,464	)		(3,284	)		(5,077	)		(5,223	)
	KEY FISCAL AGGREGATES
	Net Operating Balance		1,681			(2,631	)		(4,911	)		(6,926	)		(9,173	)		(9,190	)
Less	Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets
	Purchases of non-financial assets		10,507			12,831			14,189			18,078			19,398			19,463
	Less   Sales of non-financial assets		147			74			97			168			168			167
	Less   Depreciation		5,441			5,716			5,754			6,027			6,383			6,795
	Plus Change in inventories		(3	)		38			48			41			9			(21	)
	Plus Other movements in non-financial assets		766			1,079			1,095			829			186			181
	Equals Total Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets		5,682			8,159			9,482			12,753			13,042			12,662
Equals	Fiscal Balance		(4,001	)		(10,790	)		(14,394	)		(19,679	)		(22,216	)		(21,852	)
Note:
1. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

13

    

 

 

Table 5: Public Non-financial Corporations Sector Operating Statement¹

		2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
		Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
		$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
	Revenue from Transactions
	Grants revenue		1,251			850			966			867			783			818
	Sales of goods and services		15,215			15,377			16,115			17,107			18,172			18,969
	Interest income		219			149			179			142			130			121
	Other revenue		675			588			517			292			263			225
	Total Revenue from Transactions		17,360			16,963			17,778			18,407			19,348			20,132
Less	Expenses from Transactions
	Employee expenses		3,075			3,241			3,343			3,484			3,610			3,720
	Superannuation expenses
	Superannuation interest cost		(16	)		—			—			—			—			—
	Other superannuation expenses		375			413			473			506			525			542
	Other operating expenses		7,027			6,628			7,331			7,119			7,335			7,494
	Depreciation and amortisation		2,873			3,395			3,137			3,543			3,968			4,442
	Other interest expenses		1,832			2,135			2,136			2,532			2,942			3,577
	Grants expenses		22			28			29			23			23			23
	Other property expenses		354			507			469			477			390			315
	Total Expenses from Transactions		15,543			16,347			16,918			17,683			18,793			20,114
Equals	Net Operating Balance		1,817			616			860			724			556			17
Plus	Other economic flows - included in operating result		(833	)		(299	)		(469	)		(231	)		(342	)		(523	)
Equals	Operating Result		983			316			391			493			214			(505	)
Plus	Other economic flows - other movements in equity		1,539			3,398			3,952			2,667			1,878			4,077
Equals	Comprehensive Result - Total Change In Net Worth		2,523			3,714			4,343			3,160			2,092			3,572
	KEY FISCAL AGGREGATES
	Net Operating Balance		1,817			616			860			724			556			17
Less	Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets
	Purchases of non-financial assets		6,402			9,410			11,561			10,649			10,484			10,314
	Less   Sales of non-financial assets		27			14			24			86			8			9
	Less   Depreciation		2,873			3,395			3,137			3,543			3,968			4,442
	Plus Change in inventories		91			1			(51	)		83			21			2
	Plus Other movements in non-financial assets		712			102			91			84			393			85
	Equals Total Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets		4,304			6,103			8,439			7,188			6,922			5,949
Equals	Fiscal Balance		(2,487	)		(5,487	)		(7,579	)		(6,464	)		(6,367	)		(5,931	)
Note:
1. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

14 

MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

Table 6: Non-financial Public Sector Operating Statement¹

		2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
		Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
		$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
	Revenue from Transactions
	Taxation revenue		22,198			24,345			24,646			26,490			27,892			29,153
	Grants revenue		40,165			40,350			40,460			41,049			42,688			46,195
	Sales of goods and services		18,802			19,010			19,669			20,542			21,798			22,723
	Interest income		3,758			3,579			3,633			3,451			3,496			3,555
	Dividend and income tax equivalent income		147			219			189			199			210			211
	Other revenue		15,188			11,012			10,543			9,013			8,221			8,112
	Total Revenue from Transactions		100,258			98,517			99,141			100,744			104,305			109,948
Less	Expenses from Transactions
	Employee expenses		36,138			38,247			38,650			40,969			43,440			46,057
	Superannuation expenses
	Superannuation interest cost		773			758			828			744			680			632
	Other superannuation expenses		4,446			4,521			4,865			5,144			5,473			5,795
	Other operating expenses		29,348			28,068			30,296			29,121			30,448			31,348
	Depreciation and amortisation		8,314			9,111			8,891			9,570			10,351			11,237
	Other interest expenses		3,541			4,496			4,261			5,933			7,758			9,901
	Grants expenses		15,201			16,380			16,524			16,561			15,816			15,086
	Total Expenses from Transactions		97,761			101,581			104,315			108,043			113,967			120,056
Equals	Net Operating Balance		2,497			(3,064	)		(5,174	)		(7,299	)		(9,662	)		(10,107	)
Plus	Other economic flows - included in operating result		3,135			(215	)		(352	)		(479	)		(587	)		(749	)
Equals	Operating Result		5,631			(3,279	)		(5,526	)		(7,778	)		(10,249	)		(10,856	)
Plus	Other economic flows - other movements in equity		21,543			3,967			4,062			4,493			5,172			5,634
Equals	Comprehensive Result - Total Change In Net Worth		27,174			689			(1,464	)		(3,284	)		(5,077	)		(5,223	)
	KEY FISCAL AGGREGATES
	Net Operating Balance		2,497			(3,064	)		(5,174	)		(7,299	)		(9,662	)		(10,107	)
Less	Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets
	Purchases of non-financial assets		16,887			22,241			25,760			28,724			29,863			29,776
	Less   Sales of non-financial assets		174			88			121			254			175			176
	Less   Depreciation		8,314			9,111			8,891			9,570			10,351			11,237
	Plus Change in inventories		87			39			(2	)		124			31			(19	)
	Plus Other movements in non-financial assets		1,478			1,181			1,186			913			579			267
	Equals Total Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets		9,964			14,261			17,931			19,937			19,946			18,611
Equals	Fiscal Balance		(7,467	)		(17,325	)		(23,106	)		(27,237	)		(29,608	)		(28,718	)
Note:
1. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

15

    

 

 

Table 7: General Government Sector Balance Sheet¹

	2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
Assets
Financial Assets
Cash and deposits		2,386			1,289			1,455			1,591			1,586			1,562
Advances paid		1,137			1,331			1,247			1,287			1,308			1,307
Investments, loans and placements		52,727			48,753			51,478			52,086			52,264			53,214
Receivables		4,980			5,289			5,528			5,533			5,510			5,539
Equity
Investments in other public sector entities		27,786			34,548			32,129			35,289			37,382			40,953
Investments - other		205			175			205			205			205			205
Total Financial Assets		89,221			91,386			92,042			95,992			98,254			102,779
Non-financial Assets
Land and other fixed assets		349,040			344,437			361,602			377,699			394,478			410,593
Other non-financial assets		7,070			10,752			7,555			7,857			8,193			8,605
Total Non-financial Assets		356,110			355,190			369,157			385,555			402,671			419,198
Total Assets		445,331			446,575			461,199			481,547			500,925			521,978
Liabilities
Payables		7,010			5,596			6,380			6,481			6,565			6,720
Superannuation liability		20,118			19,478			19,889			19,416			18,561			17,555
Other employee benefits		10,277			10,680			10,799			11,448			11,501			12,272
Advances received		3,161			1,662			2,092			1,446			1,096			1,155
Borrowing2		58,773			77,118			77,627			101,784			127,399			153,766
Other liabilities		14,845			16,467			14,729			14,572			14,482			14,411
Total Liabilities		114,184			131,002			131,515			155,148			179,603			205,879
Net Worth		331,147			315,573			329,683			326,399			321,322			316,099
Net Financial Worth		(24,963	)		(39,617	)		(39,474	)		(59,156	)		(81,349	)		(103,099	)
Net Financial Liabilities		52,749			74,164			71,603			94,446			118,731			144,053
Net Debt		5,684			27,407			25,539			48,266			73,338			98,838
Notes:
1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.
2. Borrowing line comprised of:
Borrowing with QTC		50,950			68,902			69,429			94,579			120,360			147,030
Leases and other similar arrangements		7,759			8,177			8,134			7,141			6,975			6,672
Securities and derivatives		64			39			64			64			64			64
		58,773			77,118			77,627			101,784			127,399			153,766

 

16 

MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

Table 8: Public Non-financial Corporations Sector Balance Sheet¹

	2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
Assets
Financial Assets
Cash and deposits		1,802			1,411			1,111			752			720			766
Advances paid		2,946			1,515			1,923			1,333			1,037			1,151
Investments, loans and placements		3,239			2,089			2,090			1,812			1,692			1,626
Receivables		3,034			2,926			3,262			3,411			3,598			3,616
Total Financial Assets		11,021			7,941			8,387			7,308			7,047			7,160
Non-financial Assets
Land and other fixed assets		72,030			82,078			81,582			90,030			98,121			105,905
Other non-financial assets		1,993			4,071			2,088			2,159			2,347			2,495
Total Non-financial Assets		74,023			86,148			83,670			92,189			100,468			108,400
Total Assets		85,044			94,090			92,057			99,498			107,515			115,559
Liabilities
Payables		3,808			2,949			3,364			3,423			3,355			3,420
Superannuation liability		(250	)		(354	)		(258	)		(265	)		(272	)		(279	)
Other employee benefits		1,336			1,204			1,386			1,470			1,533			1,581
Deposits held		11			14			11			11			11			11
Advances received		3			3			3			2			1			—
Borrowing2		47,631			47,596			50,466			54,413			60,054			64,068
Other liabilities		8,573			11,776			8,810			9,008			9,305			9,659
Total Liabilities		61,112			63,187			63,782			68,062			73,988			78,460
Net Worth		23,932			30,903			28,275			31,435			33,527			37,099
Net Financial Worth		(50,091	)		(55,245	)		(55,395	)		(60,754	)		(66,941	)		(71,300	)
Net Debt		39,659			42,597			45,354			50,529			56,616			60,535
Notes:
1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.
2. Borrowing line comprised of:
Borrowing with QTC		44,669			46,358			48,689			52,997			58,447			62,528
Leases and other similar arrangements		745			589			686			623			860			788
Securities and derivatives		2,217			649			1,091			792			747			752
		47,631			47,596			50,466			54,413			60,054			64,068

 

17

    

 

 

Table 9: Non-financial Public Sector Balance Sheet¹

	2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
Assets
Financial Assets
Cash and deposits		4,188			2,700			2,566			2,343			2,306			2,328
Advances paid		1,137			1,330			1,250			1,303			1,338			1,353
Investments, loans and placements		55,966			50,842			53,568			53,898			53,956			54,840
Receivables		6,630			6,629			7,000			7,214			7,444			7,524
Equity
Investments in other public sector entities		3,855			3,645			3,855			3,855			3,855			3,855
Investments - other		204			174			204			204			204			204
Total Financial Assets		71,979			65,320			68,443			68,817			69,104			70,104
Non-financial Assets
Land and other fixed assets		421,069			426,514			443,183			467,728			492,598			516,497
Other non-financial assets		1,500			1,448			1,713			1,907			2,124			2,266
Total Non-financial Assets		422,569			427,962			444,896			469,635			494,722			518,763
Total Assets		494,547			493,282			513,340			538,452			563,826			588,867
Liabilities
Payables		9,490			7,016			8,012			8,233			8,318			8,570
Superannuation liability		19,868			19,123			19,631			19,152			18,289			17,276
Other employee benefits		11,613			11,885			12,185			12,918			13,034			13,854
Deposits held		11			14			11			11			11			11
Advances received		218			148			175			131			91			50
Borrowing2		106,397			124,707			128,085			156,190			187,445			217,826
Other liabilities		15,803			14,815			15,557			15,418			15,316			15,180
Total Liabilities		163,399			177,710			183,656			212,053			242,504			272,767
Net Worth		331,148			315,573			329,683			326,399			321,322			316,099
Net Financial Worth		(91,421	)		(112,389	)		(115,213	)		(143,236	)		(173,400	)		(202,664	)
Net Financial Liabilities		95,276			116,035			119,068			147,091			177,255			206,519
Net Debt		45,336			69,998			70,887			98,788			129,947			159,367
Notes:
1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.
2. Borrowing line comprised of:
Borrowing with QTC		95,619			115,260			118,118			147,577			178,807			209,558
Leases and other similar arrangements		8,504			8,766			8,820			7,764			7,835			7,460
Securities and derivatives		2,274			681			1,148			849			804			809
		106,397			124,707			128,085			156,190			187,445			217,826

 

18 

MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

Table 10: General Government Sector Cash Flow Statement¹

	2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
Cash Receipts from Operating Activities
Taxes received		22,842			24,798			24,983			26,836			28,242			29,543
Grants and subsidies received		40,307			40,290			40,322			40,933			42,609			46,126
Sales of goods and services		7,272			7,520			7,942			8,142			7,895			7,736
Interest receipts		3,613			3,499			3,517			3,353			3,394			3,451
Dividends and income tax equivalents		799			1,584			1,409			1,872			1,719			1,525
Other receipts		17,006			12,842			12,179			11,090			10,467			10,352
Total Operating Receipts		91,837			90,532			90,353			92,226			94,326			98,735
Cash Payments for Operating Activities
Payments for employees		(39,013	)		(40,342	)		(40,910	)		(43,133	)		(46,368	)		(48,469	)
Payments for goods and services		(28,501	)		(29,002	)		(30,657	)		(29,869	)		(30,302	)		(30,731	)
Grants and subsidies		(15,662	)		(17,005	)		(17,786	)		(17,253	)		(16,464	)		(15,767	)
Interest paid		(1,928	)		(2,501	)		(2,253	)		(3,518	)		(4,966	)		(6,529	)
Total Operating Payments		(85,104	)		(88,850	)		(91,607	)		(93,773	)		(98,100	)		(101,497	)
Net Cash Inflows from Operating Activities		6,734			1,682			(1,254	)		(1,547	)		(3,774	)		(2,762	)
Cash Flows from Investments in Non-Financial Assets
Purchases of non-financial assets		(10,507	)		(12,831	)		(14,189	)		(18,078	)		(19,398	)		(19,463	)
Sales of non-financial assets		147			74			97			168			168			167
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Non-financial Assets		(10,360	)		(12,757	)		(14,093	)		(17,910	)		(19,230	)		(19,296	)
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Financial Assets for Policy Purposes		(2,159	)		(2,984	)		(3,396	)		(2,619	)		(1,533	)		(2,782	)
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Financial Assets for Liquidity Purposes		2,581			1,394			4,761			(599	)		(175	)		(960	)
Receipts from Financing Activities
Advances received (net)		1,252			(1,088	)		(1,067	)		(644	)		(348	)		60
Borrowing (net)		1,974			13,935			14,123			23,455			25,056			25,715
Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities		3,227			12,847			13,056			22,811			24,707			25,775
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash held		23			181			(926	)		136			(5	)		(24	)
Net cash from operating activities		6,734			1,682			(1,254	)		(1,547	)		(3,774	)		(2,762	)
Net cash flows from investments in non-financial assets		(10,360	)		(12,757	)		(14,093	)		(17,910	)		(19,230	)		(19,296	)
Surplus/(Deficit)		(3,626	)		(11,076	)		(15,347	)		(19,457	)		(23,005	)		(22,058	)
Derivation of ABS GFS Cash Surplus/Deficit
Cash surplus/(deficit)		(3,626	)		(11,076	)		(15,347	)		(19,457	)		(23,005	)		(22,058	)
Acquisitions under finance leases and similar arrangements		(826	)		(692	)		(713	)		(365	)		(5	)		(1	)
ABS GFS Cash Surplus/(Deficit) Including Finance Leases and Similar Arrangements		(4,452	)		(11,768	)		(16,060	)		(19,822	)		(23,010	)		(22,059	)
Note:
1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

19

    

 

 

Table 11: Public Non-financial Corporations Sector Cash Flow Statement¹

	2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
Cash Receipts from Operating Activities
Grants and subsidies received		1,298			836			955			855			772			806
Sales of goods and services		16,701			16,860			17,797			18,956			20,149			21,209
Interest receipts		219			152			182			142			131			121
Other receipts		501			576			440			207			211			146
Total Operating Receipts		18,719			18,425			19,373			20,161			21,263			22,282
Cash Payments for Operating Activities
Payments for employees		(3,134	)		(3,558	)		(3,773	)		(3,912	)		(4,078	)		(4,221	)
Payments for goods and services		(7,631	)		(8,516	)		(10,132	)		(9,151	)		(9,386	)		(9,370	)
Grants and subsidies		(22	)		(28	)		(29	)		(23	)		(23	)		(23	)
Interest paid		(1,836	)		(2,111	)		(2,114	)		(2,515	)		(2,923	)		(3,554	)
Other payments		(822	)		(633	)		(524	)		(713	)		(534	)		(403	)
Total Operating Payments		(13,445	)		(14,846	)		(16,572	)		(16,314	)		(16,944	)		(17,571	)
Net Cash Inflows from Operating Activities		5,273			3,579			2,801			3,847			4,319			4,711
Cash Flows from Investments in Non-Financial Assets
Purchases of non-financial assets		(6,402	)		(9,410	)		(11,561	)		(10,649	)		(10,484	)		(10,314	)
Sales of non-financial assets		27			14			24			86			8			9
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Non-financial Assets		(6,375	)		(9,395	)		(11,536	)		(10,563	)		(10,476	)		(10,305	)
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Financial Assets for Policy Purposes		(1,339	)		1,047			1,023			591			295			(113	)
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Financial Assets for Liquidity Purposes		(281	)		9			14			34			19			(1	)
Receipts from Financing Activities
Advances received (net)		(1	)		(1	)		(1	)		(1	)		(1	)		(1	)
Borrowing (net)		1,953			2,108			4,184			4,256			5,373			4,004
Dividends paid		(490	)		(1,021	)		(973	)		(1,123	)		(1,098	)		(1,044	)
Deposits received (net)		(3	)		—			—			—			—			—
Other financing (net)		2,050			3,417			3,798			2,600			1,535			2,795
Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities		3,509			4,504			7,008			5,733			5,810			5,754
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash held		788			(256	)		(690	)		(359	)		(32	)		46
Net cash from operating activities		5,273			3,579			2,801			3,847			4,319			4,711
Net cash flows from investments in non-financial assets		(6,375	)		(9,395	)		(11,536	)		(10,563	)		(10,476	)		(10,305	)
Dividends paid		(490	)		(1,021	)		(973	)		(1,123	)		(1,098	)		(1,044	)
Surplus/(Deficit)		(1,592	)		(6,837	)		(9,708	)		(7,839	)		(7,254	)		(6,638	)
Derivation of ABS GFS Cash Surplus/Deficit
Cash surplus/(deficit)		(1,592	)		(6,837	)		(9,708	)		(7,839	)		(7,254	)		(6,638	)
Acquisitions under finance leases and similar arrangements		(360	)		(25	)		(14	)		(5	)		(314	)		(6	)
ABS GFS Cash Surplus/(Deficit) Including Finance Leases and Similar Arrangements		(1,952	)		(6,862	)		(9,721	)		(7,844	)		(7,568	)		(6,644	)
Note:
1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

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MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

Table 12: Non-financial Public Sector Cash Flow Statement¹

	2023-24			2024-25			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Outcome			Budget			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
Cash Receipts from Operating Activities
Taxes received		22,381			24,344			24,645			26,489			27,890			29,152
Grants and subsidies received		40,407			40,351			40,414			41,018			42,667			46,185
Sales of goods and services		20,383			20,269			21,474			22,463			23,836			24,980
Interest receipts		3,756			3,577			3,635			3,450			3,494			3,553
Dividends and income tax equivalents		120			186			189			194			205			215
Other receipts		17,498			13,418			12,628			11,294			10,659			10,498
Total Operating Receipts		104,545			102,145			102,986			104,906			108,751			114,583
Cash Payments for Operating Activities
Payments for employees		(41,946	)		(43,688	)		(44,573	)		(46,934	)		(50,334	)		(52,576	)
Payments for goods and services		(32,546	)		(33,396	)		(36,512	)		(34,371	)		(35,466	)		(36,121	)
Grants and subsidies		(14,491	)		(16,256	)		(16,950	)		(16,506	)		(15,773	)		(15,043	)
Interest paid		(3,456	)		(4,315	)		(4,094	)		(5,770	)		(7,637	)		(9,806	)
Other payments		(610	)		(251	)		(272	)		(152	)		(112	)		(132	)
Total Operating Payments		(93,049	)		(97,906	)		(102,401	)		(103,732	)		(109,322	)		(113,679	)
Net Cash Inflows from Operating Activities		11,497			4,240			584			1,174			(572	)		904
Cash Flows from Investments in Non-Financial Assets
Purchases of non-financial assets		(16,887	)		(22,241	)		(25,760	)		(28,724	)		(29,863	)		(29,776	)
Sales of non-financial assets		174			88			121			254			175			176
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Non-financial Assets		(16,712	)		(22,152	)		(25,639	)		(28,470	)		(29,687	)		(29,600	)
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Financial Assets for Policy Purposes		110			433			398			(32	)		(13	)		(2	)
Net Cash Flows from Investments in Financial Assets for Liquidity Purposes		2,300			1,404			4,774			(565	)		(156	)		(961	)
Receipts from Financing Activities
Advances received (net)		(17	)		(41	)		(41	)		(42	)		(38	)		(39	)
Borrowing (net)		3,927			16,043			18,307			27,712			30,429			29,719
Deposits received (net)		(3	)		—			—			—			—			—
Other financing (net)		(291	)		—			—			—			—			—
Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities		3,616			16,002			18,266			27,670			30,390			29,681
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash held		810			(75	)		(1,616	)		(223	)		(38	)		22
Net cash from operating activities		11,497			4,240			584			1,174			(572	)		904
Net cash flows from investments in non-financial assets		(16,712	)		(22,152	)		(25,639	)		(28,470	)		(29,687	)		(29,600	)
Surplus/(Deficit)		(5,216	)		(17,913	)		(25,055	)		(27,296	)		(30,259	)		(28,696	)
Derivation of ABS GFS Cash Surplus/Deficit
Cash surplus/(deficit)		(5,216	)		(17,913	)		(25,055	)		(27,296	)		(30,259	)		(28,696	)
Acquisitions under finance leases and similar arrangements		(1,186	)		(717	)		(727	)		(371	)		(319	)		(7	)
ABS GFS Cash Surplus/(Deficit) Including Finance Leases and Similar Arrangements		(6,402	)		(18,630	)		(25,781	)		(27,667	)		(30,578	)		(28,703	)
Note:
1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

21

    

 

 

Economic and revenue assumptions

The 2024–25 Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review (MYFER) is based in part on assumptions made about parameters, both internal and external to Queensland, which can impact directly on economic and fiscal forecasts.

The forward estimates in the 2024–25 MYFER are framed on a no-policy-change basis. That is, the expenditure and revenue policies in place at the time of the MYFER (including those announced in the MYFER) are applied consistently throughout the forward estimates period.

Economic assumptions

Key economic assumptions underpinning the 2024–25 MYFER include:

• Consistent with IMF projections, international economic growth is assumed to gradually slow over the forecast horizon and be below the pre-COVID decade average.

• Interest rates are assumed to remain at the current level before starting to gradually ease from around mid-2025.

• The A$/US$ exchange rate is assumed to be weaker over the coming quarters but gradually recover and move towards the medium-term anchor of US$0.75 by June 2027.

• Brent oil prices to remain flat at around US$75/bbl across the forward estimates.

• Residential property prices in Brisbane are expected to maintain relatively robust growth in the near term before returning to more modest growth over the forecast horizon.

• The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a higher likelihood of rainfall exceeding median levels across coastal Queensland over the 2024–25 summer. A return to average rainfall is predicted at this stage for forthcoming years.

Taxation and royalty revenue

Table 13 shows the main components of taxation and royalty revenue, and the forecast revenues for each component across the forward estimates.

Table 13: Taxation and royalty revenue¹

	2023–24		2024–25		2024–25		2025–26		2026–27		2027–28
	Actual		Budget		MYFER		Projection		Projection		Projection
	$ million		$ million		$ million		$ million		$ million		$ million
Payroll tax and mental health levy		6,723		7,245		7,347		7,792		8,186		8,569
Transfer duty		5,492		6,793		6,800		7,165		7,492		7,820
Other duties		2,472		2,596		2,609		2,743		2,860		2,982
Gambling taxes and levies		2,097		2,141		2,180		2,260		2,342		2,426
Land tax		2,026		2,499		2,499		2,847		3,158		3,365
Motor vehicle registration		2,367		2,046		2,081		2,507		2,631		2,726
Other taxes		1,482		1,478		1,467		1,525		1,576		1,658
Total tax revenue		22,659		24,799		24,984		26,838		28,244		29,545
Royalties
Coal		10,521		6,233		5,838		4,831		4,553		4,523
Petroleum2		1,705		1,594		1,492		1,162		1,044		1,018
Other royalties3		545		579		655		575		496		468
Total royalties		12,771		8,406		7,984		6,568		6,092		6,008
Land rents		188		193		193		197		201		206
Total royalties and land rents		12,959		8,599		8,177		6,764		6,294		6,215

Notes:

1.  Numbers may not add due to rounding.

2.  Includes liquefied natural gas (LNG).

3.  Includes base and precious metal and other mineral royalties.

 

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MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

Royalty assumptions

Table 14 below provides the 2024–25 MYFER assumptions regarding coal royalties, which represent around 75 per cent of Queensland’s expected total royalty revenue across the five years from 2024-25 to 2027-28.

Table 14: Royalty assumptions

	2023–24	2024–25	2025–26	2026–27	2027–28
	Actual	MYFER	Projection	Projection	Projection
Tonnages – crown export1 coal (Mt)	193	200	214	225	223
Exchange rate $US per $A2	0.66	0.67	0.71	0.75	0.75
Year average coal prices ($US per tonne)3
Hard coking	287	202	186	185	185
Semi–soft	170	159	140	139	139
Thermal	136	137	121	120	120
Year average oil price
Brent ($US per barrel)4	84	81	75	75	75

Notes:

1.  Excludes coal produced for domestic consumption and coal where royalties are not paid to the Government (i.e. private royalties). The 2024–25 estimate for domestic coal volume is approximately 24.2 Mt and private coal is 5.9 Mt.

2.  Year average.

3.  Estimated year-average spot prices for highest quality coking and thermal coal. Lower quality coal can be sold below this price with indicative average prices for 2024–25 as follows: Hard coking US$191 per tonne and thermal US$103 per tonne.

4.  Published Brent oil prices are lagged by 4 months to better align with royalty revenue.

Exchange rate and commodity prices and volumes

Estimates of mining royalties are sensitive to movements in the A$-US$ exchange rate and commodity prices and volumes.

Contracts for the supply of commodities are generally written in US dollars. Accordingly, a change in the exchange rate impacts on the Australian dollar price of commodities and, therefore, expected royalty collections.

Interest rates

Most General Government Sector debt is held under fixed interest rates. Therefore, the impact of interest rate variations on debt servicing costs in 2024–25 would be relatively modest, with the impact building progressively across the forward estimates.

 

23

    

 

 

Fiscal aggregates

	2016–17			2017–18			2018–19			2019–20			2020–21			2021-22			2022–23		2023–24			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Actual1			Actual1			Actual1			Actual1			Actual1			Actual			Actual		Actual			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million		$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million			$ million
General Government
Total revenue		56,194			58,087			59,828			57,778			62,791			74,185			89,809		89,768			88,071			89,286			91,278			95,749
Taxation revenue		12,919			13,244			14,165			14,585			16,249			20,011			20,601		22,659			24,984			26,838			28,244			29,545
Total expenses		53,369			56,337			58,843			63,505			63,706			69,902			75,880		88,087			92,983			96,211			100,451			104,939
Employee expenses		21,258			22,681			24,019			25,662			26,385			28,068			30,558		33,264			35,417			37,597			39,943			42,452
Net operating balance		2,825			1,750			985			(5,728	)		(915	)		4,284			13,928		1,681			(4,911	)		(6,926	)		(9,173	)		(9,190	)
Capital purchases		4,620			5,126			5,764			6,306			6,682			7,878			9,899		10,507			14,189			18,078			19,398			19,463
Net capital purchases		2,265			2,337			3,192			3,436			3,942			4,356			5,838		5,682			9,482			12,753			13,042			12,662
Fiscal balance		560			(587	)		(2,207	)		(9,164	)		(4,857	)		(72	)		8,090		(4,001	)		(14,394	)		(19,679	)		(22,216	)		(21,852	)
Borrow ing w ith QTC		31,358			29,256			29,468			37,570			46,153			49,000			46,166		50,950			69,429			94,579			120,360			147,030
Leases and similar arrangements2		1,882			2,142			2,612			6,485			7,703			7,671			7,519		7,759			8,134			7,141			6,975			6,672
Securities and Derivatives		(0	)		122			121			198			220			93			41		64			64			64			64			64
Net debt		(355	)		(509	)		(198	)		14,036			11,344			10,997			2,608		5,684			25,539			48,266			73,338			98,838
Non-financial Public Sector
Total revenue		64,855			66,164			68,329			66,171			71,318			85,485			100,820		100,258			99,141			100,744			104,305			109,948
Capital purchases		7,291			7,643			8,460			9,482			9,877			11,130			14,300		16,887			25,760			28,724			29,863			29,776
Borrow ing w ith QTC		69,107			66,964			67,576			76,464			85,901			90,851			89,442		95,619			118,118			147,577			178,807			209,558
Leases and similar arrangements2		1,882			2,142			2,612			6,977			8,157			8,028			7,887		8,504			8,820			7,764			7,835			7,460
Securities and Derivatives		895			405			720			1,503			1,570			17,374			5,491		2,274			1,148			849			804			809
Notes:
1.  With the implementation of the latest GFS Manual (AGFS15), some categories have been restated to ensure comparability.
2.  Approximately $2.2 billion increase in General Government and $2.6 billion in NFPS in 2019-20 on adoption of the new lease accounting standard AASB 16.

 

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MID-YEAR FISCAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW2024–25

 

 

	2016–17			2017–18			2018–19			2019–20			2020–21			2021-22			2022–23		2023–24			2024-25			2025-26			2026-27			2027-28
	Actual1			Actual1			Actual1			Actual1			Actual1			Actual			Actual		Actual			MYFER			Projection			Projection			Projection
	%			%			%			%			%			%			%		%			%			%			%			%
General Government
Revenue/GSP		17.2			16.6			16.3			16.0			17.1			16.3			17.8		17.6			16.6			16.2			15.8			15.8
Tax/GSP		3.9			3.8			3.9			4.0			4.4			4.4			4.1		4.4			4.7			4.9			4.9			4.9
Ow n source revenue/GSP		8.8			8.6			8.6			8.4			8.1			8.8			10.2		9.7			9.0			8.8			8.4			8.2
Expenses/GSP		16.3			16.1			16.1			17.6			17.3			15.4			15.0		17.2			17.6			17.5			17.4			17.3
Employee expenses/GSP		6.5			6.5			6.6			7.1			7.2			6.2			6.0		6.5			6.7			6.8			6.9			7.0
Net operating balance/GSP		0.9			0.5			0.3			(1.6	)		(0.2	)		0.9			2.8		0.3			(0.9	)		(1.3	)		(1.6	)		(1.5	)
Capital purchases/GSP		1.4			1.5			1.6			1.7			1.8			1.7			2.0		2.1			2.7			3.3			3.4			3.2
Net cash inflow s from operating activities/Net cash flow s from investments in non-financial assets		134.2			107.0			105.5			(2.5	)		0.7			136.9			204.6		65.0			(8.9	)		(8.6	)		(19.6	)		(14.3	)
Fiscal balance/GSP		0.2			(0.2	)		(0.6	)		(2.5	)		(1.3	)		(0.0	)		1.6		(0.8	)		(2.7	)		(3.6	)		(3.8	)		(3.6	)
Total borrow ings/GSP		10.2			9.0			8.8			12.3			14.7			12.5			10.6		11.5			14.7			18.5			22.1			25.3
Total Borrow ings/Revenue		59.2			54.3			53.8			76.6			86.1			76.5			59.8		65.5			88.1			114.0			139.6			160.6
Lease and other liabilities/revenue		3.3			3.7			4.4			11.2			12.3			10.3			8.4		8.6			9.2			8.0			7.6			7.0
Net debt/revenue		(0.6	)		(0.9	)		(0.3	)		24.3			18.1			14.8			2.9		6.3			29.0			54.1			80.3			103.2
Revenue grow th		10.7			3.4			3.0			(3.4	)		8.7			18.1			21.1		(0.0	)		(1.9	)		1.4			2.2			4.9
Tax grow th		3.0			2.5			7.0			3.0			11.4			23.1			2.9		10.0			10.3			7.4			5.2			4.6
Expenses grow th		6.5			5.6			4.4			7.9			0.3			9.7			8.6		16.1			5.6			3.5			4.4			4.5
Employee expenses grow th		6.1			6.7			5.9			6.8			2.8			6.4			8.9		8.9			6.5			6.2			6.2			6.3
Non-Financial Public Sector
Capital purchases/GSP		2.2			2.2			2.3			2.6			2.7			2.5			2.8		3.3			4.9			5.2			5.2			4.9
Total borrow ings/GSP		22.0			19.9			19.4			23.6			26.0			25.6			20.4		20.8			24.2			28.4			32.5			35.9
Total Borrow ings/Revenue		110.8			105.1			103.8			128.4			134.1			136.0			102.0		106.1			129.2			155.0			179.7			198.1
Net financial liabilities/revenue		111.2			111.5			114.9			158.3			142.5			117.8			90.5		95.0			120.1			146.0			169.9			187.8
Notes:
1.  With the implementation of the latest GFS Manual (AGFS15), some categories have been restated to ensure comparability. Actual GSP figures: as at 2023-24 ABS National Accounts: State Accounts.

 

25