September 2023 in the states where the Company has branches or loan production offices were: Arizona at 4.0%, Arkansas at 2.9%, Colorado at 3.2%, Georgia at 3.4%, Illinois at 4.4%, Iowa at 3.0%, Kansas at 2.8%, Minnesota at 3.1%, Missouri at 2.9%, Nebraska at 2.1%, North Carolina at 3.4%, Oklahoma at 3.0%, and Texas at 4.1%. Of the metropolitan areas in which the Company does business, most are below the national unemployment rate of 3.8% for September 2023.
Single Family Housing
Existing home sales slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in September 2023, down 2% from 4 million in August 2023 and down 15.4% from 4.68 million in September 2022. In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined by 4.1% from the previous month to an annual rate of 930,000 in September 2023, and down 18.4% from one year ago.
The median existing-home sales price nationally as of September 2023 was $394,300, up 2.8% from the September 2022 median of $383,500. All four U.S. regions posted price increases with the median price in the Midwest recorded at $293,300, up 4.7% from September 2022. For the third consecutive month, home prices are up from a year ago, confirming the pressing need for more housing supply.
The inventory of unsold existing homes climbed 2.7% from the prior month to 1.13 million at the end of September 2023 but down 8.1% from one year ago of 1.23 million. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.3 months in August 2023 and 3.2 months in September 2022. A 5 to 6 month supply is typically required for a more balanced market.
Nationally, properties on average remained on the market for 21 days in September 2023, up from 20 days in August 2023 and 19 days in September 2022. Sixty-nine percent of homes sold in September were on the market for less than a month.
New home construction dropped precipitously after the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and has yet to fully recover. Issues contributing to the country’s current housing shortage include increasing labor and materials costs, availability of building materials, increased interest rates and tighter lending underwriting standards.
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.3% above the revised August 2023 rate of 676,000 and 33.9% above the September 2022 estimate of 567,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2023 was $418,800, down from $477,700 in September 2022. The average sales price in September 2023 of $503,900 was down from $530,100 in September 2022. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September 2023 was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate.
First-time buyers accounted for 27% of sales in September 2023, down from 29% in August 2023 and September 2022.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 7.57% as of October 12, 2023 which is up from 7.49% the previous week and 6.92% one year ago.
Other Residential (Multi-Family) Housing and Commercial Real Estate
When demand in the multi-family market spiked in the first year of the pandemic, developers accelerated plans for new projects. Three years later, a good number of those developments are set to deliver this year. The national forecast sits at 554,000 new units to be delivered in 2023, the most new supply to hit the market since the mid-1980s. In addition, 15 markets are projected to hit new record deliveries in 2023 and Sun Belt locations make up 12 of those markets. These record deliveries are hitting at a time when demand remains weak, putting several of these 15 markets at significant risk of worsening fundamentals by the end of the year.
The supply/demand imbalance has pushed the national vacancy rate up 200 basis points from an all-time low of 4.7% in the third quarter of 2021 to 7.1% in the third quarter of 2023. The national vacancy rate is forecasted to finish 2023 in the mid 7% range, which would be 100 basis points higher than pre-pandemic levels. Our market areas reflected the following apartment vacancy levels as of September 2023: Springfield, Missouri at 4.4%, St. Louis at 10.0%, Kansas City at 7.6%, Minneapolis at 7.1%, Tulsa, Oklahoma at 8.4%, Dallas-Fort Worth at 9.4%, Chicago at 5.5%, Atlanta at 11.4%, Phoenix at 10.2%, Denver at 8.1% and Charlotte, North Carolina at 10.6%.
More than 1 million units were under construction at the end of the third quarter of 2023, with almost 450,000 units expected to deliver in 2024. However, the rising interest rate environment combined with a pullback in construction lending has seen some