EXHIBIT (c)(3)
Highly Confidential |
Discussion Materials Silver Special Committee |
Goldman, Sachs & Co. November 26, 2006 |
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Highly Confidential |
Table of Contents I. Public Market Perspective II. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan III. Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest IV. Leveraged Recapitalization Appendix A: Supporting Materials |
Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice. Notwithstanding anything in this document to the contrary, and except as required to enable compliance with applicable securities law, you (and each of your employees, representatives, and other agents) may disclose to any and all persons the US federal income and state tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) that are provided to you relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, without Goldman Sachs imposing any limitation of any kind. |
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Highly Confidential |
I. Public Market Perspective |
Public Market Perspective 3 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective |
Absolute Share Price Performance (Last 5 Years) (US$ per share) |
$40 May-2004 3-Jul-2006 SEC launches 20-Apr-2006 All time high Silver investigation into 27-Oct-2005 Silver reports a share price of $33.62 whether securities JM steps down as Silver 93% increase in fraud was committed by President & CEO. Bob earnings for Q1 Silver CEO JM Cunningham named new CEO 2006 |
$ 27.61 |
$30 JM Proposal: $ 29.00 Share Price (USD) $20 |
8-Aug-2006 Closing |
JP Morgan analyst lowers his earnings estimates for Silver Silver Weighted Average Price1 |
$10 5 Year $ 21.58 |
3 Year 22.20 22-Sep-2005 1 Year 25.66 JM pays $1.25mm to 06-Nov-2006 6 Month 26.96 settle federal lawsuit Silver receives an all cash 1 Month 25.73 with SEC over insider acquisition offer of $ 29.00 |
1 Week 24.68 trading allegations per share from JM Current 27.61 |
$ 0 |
Nov-2001 Aug-2002 Apr-2003 Dec-2003 Aug-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sep-2006 Silver Share Price Source: Factset (as of November 24, 2006), press releases, Silver website1Weighted average prices are undisturbed as of November 3, 2006. Public Market Perspective 4 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective JM Proposal Premia Analysis |
Absolute Share Price Performance Since |
New Management1 vs. Proposal Premia Analysis – $29 Proposal |
$ 40 3-Jul-2006 20,000 |
All time high Silver share Current (Nov-24-06) 5.0% price of $ 33.62 $27.61 |
18,000 |
$ 35 |
16,000 |
52 Week High (Jul-3-06) (13.7)% $ 30 JM Proposal: $ 29.00 $33.62 |
14,000 |
$ 25 51.8% 52 Week Low (Dec-8-05) 12,000 |
$19.11 |
Volume Price (USD) $ 20 10,000 |
Closing 20.6% (000) 1 Day Prior (Nov-3-06) |
$24.05 |
8,000 |
$ 15 |
1 Month Weighted Avg. 12.7% 6,000 |
$25.73 |
$ 10 |
4,000 |
3 Month Weighted Avg. 17.3% $ 5 |
2,000 $24.72 |
$ 0 0 6 Month Weighted Avg. 7.6% Nov-2005 Jan-2006 Apr-2006 Jul-2006 Oct-2006 $26.96 |
Volume Silver Share Price Source: Factset Note: Silver weighted average prices are undisturbed as of November 3, 20061On October 27, 2005, JM announced he would step down as Silver President and CEO; the Company named Bob Cunningham as his successor. Public Market Perspective 5 |
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Highly Confidential |
Review of Selected Transactions Premia Analysis (US$ in millions) |
Date Initial Bid Final Bid Increase in Ownership Pre- Cons id. |
Announced Target Acquiror Acq Type Premium a Premiumb Offerc Offerd ($mm) |
S=Strategic F=Financial A=Affiliate 6-Nov-06 Silver JM A 20.6% NA NA 27.0% $ $ 2,207 |
10-Nov-06 Crest Nicholson PLC Castle Bidco Ltd F 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 23.3% $ $ 1,344 |
8-Oct-06 Cablevision Systems Corp Investor Group A 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 23.1% $ $18,016 |
27-Sep-06 Retirement Residences REIT PR Capital Corp F 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 14.1% $ $ 2,169 |
22-Aug-06 Burns Philp & Co Ltd Rank Group Ltd F 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 57.6% $ $ 1,006 |
27-Jul-06 Matalan PLC Missouri Bidco F 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 53.5% $ 704 |
16-Jul-06 McCarthy & Stone PLC Mother Bidco Ltd F 31.6% 37.3% 4.4% 4.7% $ $ 1,903 |
6-Jul-06 BorsodChem RT First Chemical Holding F 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 51.4% $ 508 |
12-Jun-06 Houston Exploration Co JANA Partners LLC F 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 11.7% $ $ 2,125 |
6-Jun-06 Shanghai Port Container Co Ltd Shanghai Intl Port(Grp)Co Ltd S 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 70.2% $ $ 1,110 |
5-Jun-06 Trizec Properties Inc Investor Group F 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 37.1% $ $ 4,747 |
26-May-06 Overseas Union Enterprise Ltd Lippo Ppty Invest Pte Ltd S 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 55.0% $ 512 |
20-Feb-06 Tele Pizza SA Foodco Pastries A 20.7% 79.9% 49.3% 20.5% $ 796 |
28-Oct-05 Hudsons Bay Co Maple Leaf Heritage Invest F 18.9% 23.0% 3.4% 18.4% $ $ 1,338 |
7-Jul-05 PHS Group PLC Norfolk Acquisition Ltd F 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.7% $ $ 1,279 |
12-Jun-05 HeidelbergCement AG Spohn Cement GmbH S 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 16.6% $ $ 3,341 |
3-Jun-05 Acxiom Corp ValueAct Capital Partners LP F 24.5% 35.3% 8.7% 8.9% $ $ 2,588 |
12-May-05 Manchester United PLC Red Football Ltd S 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 56.8% $ 646 |
7-Mar-05 Insight Communications Co Inc Investor Group A 10.5% 21.4% 9.8% 13.3% $ $ 3,275 |
15-Feb-05 Circuit City Stores Inc Highfields Capital Mgmt LP F 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 6.4% $ $ 2,405 |
13-Dec-04 Rexel SA Ray Acquisition Sca F 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 73.5% $ 928 |
2-Aug-04 Cox Communications Inc Cox Enterprises Inc S 16.0% 26.0% 8.6% 61.4% $ $ 8,390 |
22-Mar-04 US Oncology Inc Welsh Carson Anderson & Stowe F 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 13.0% $ $ 1,282 |
20-Feb-04 Vivarte SA PAI Partners SA F 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 55.4% $ 662 |
23-Sep-02 Dole Food Co Inc David H Murdock A 20.5% 36.8% 13.6% 22.9% $ $ 1,919 |
10-Jul-01 Royal Canin SA(Guyomarc’h SA) Masterfoods Holding SA S 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 27.9% $ $ 1,051 |
6-Jun-01 Liberty Financial Cos Inc Liberty Mutual Insurance Co S 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 65.6% $ 536 |
15-Jan-01 Van Melle NV Perfetti SpA S 71.9% 71.9% 0.0% 37.0% $ 633 |
2-May-00 Labinal SNECMA S 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 49.4% $ 953 |
High 71.9% 79.9% 49.3% 73.5% Mean 17.5% 21.6% 3.5% 33.9% Median 15.5% 18.2% 0.0% 25.6% Low 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% |
Source: SDC (a) Initial premium compares the initial bid per share to the target’s last published closing price per share prior to the initial deal announcement. (b) Final bid to premium compares the final bid per share to the target’s last published closing price per share prior to the initial deal announcement. (c) Percent increases in offer compares the final bid per share to the initial bid per share. (d) 100% owned after transaction. |
Public Market Perspective 6 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective Shares Traded Analysis Since November 6th (US$ per share) |
Shares Traded Cummulative Date Share Price That Day (mm) Shares Traded % of Float |
6-Nov-06 $29.84 16.4 16.4 36.4% |
7-Nov-06 29.43 6.2 22.6 50.0% |
8-Nov-06 28.94 3.4 26.0 57.5% |
9-Nov-06 27.93 3.3 29.3 64.7% |
10-Nov-06 27.70 1.7 31.0 68.5% |
13-Nov-06 27.50 0.9 31.8 70.4% |
14-Nov-06 27.95 1.2 33.1 73.1% |
15-Nov-06 27.54 1.0 34.1 75.4% |
16-Nov-06 27.86 0.8 34.9 77.1% |
17-Nov-06 27.82 0.8 35.6 78.8% |
20-Nov-06 27.49 0.7 36.4 80.5% |
21-Nov-06 27.42 0.2 36.6 81.0% |
22-Nov-06 27.50 0.4 37.0 81.8% |
24-Nov-06 27.61 0.2 37.282.3% |
Source: Factset |
Public Market Perspective 7 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective Silver Relative Share Price Performance vs. Selected Companies / Composites |
5 Years 3 Years |
Dow Jones Transportation LTL Composite2 144.1% 67.1% Composite Truckload Composite1 134.4% Silver 38.5% Dow Jones Transportation 91.2% S&P 500 33.2% Composite Silver 31.8% Truckload Composite1 33.0% S&P 500 21.8% LTL Composite2 29.9% 1 Year 6 Months |
S&P 500 11.3% Silver 35.3% Dow Jones Transportation Dow Jones 5.4% 16.0% Transportation Composite LTL S&P 500 10.7% (0.4)% Composite2 LTL Composite2 0.5% Silver (4.4)% Truckload Truckload Composite1 (1.4)% (6.8)% Composite1 Source: Bloomberg and Factset (as of November 24, 2006)1Includes Covenant Transport, Heartland Express, JB Hunt Transport, Knight Transportation, U.S. Xpress and Werner.2Includes Arkansas Best, Central Freight, Con-Way, Old Dominion, Saia and YRC Worldwide. Public Market Perspective 8 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective Evolution of Wall Street EPS Estimate since November 2001 (US$ per share) |
$ 3.00 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 2008E $ 2.00 $ 2.07 $2.06 2007E 2006E Estimate $ 1.50 $ 1.47 EPS 2005A $1.30 2004A $ 1.00 $ 0.93 $0.78 2003A 2002A $ 0.50 $ 0.45 2001A $ 0.00 Nov-2001 Nov-2002 Nov-2003 Nov-2004 Nov-2005 Nov-2006 |
Source: Factset (as of November 24, 2006) and IBES |
Public Market Perspective 9 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective Transportation Sector |
John G. Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus |
November 16, 2006 |
“Anecdotal evidence from conversations with several truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL) and rail company representatives suggests that industry demand remains depressed during the time of year when volumes are typically the strongest.” |
“Some carriers implied that competition for freight is heating up. Though pricing still appears to be rational, we would not be surprised if some carriers are experiencing a bit of downward pressure on rates in 4Q06.” |
“In light of the insights we gained at the conference, we continue to believe that the long-term, capacity-constrained operating environment (in which we expect the industry to operate for the forseeable future) will provide the requisite backdrop for well-managed companies to raise rates in excess of their cost increases, to expand margins, and to benefit from industry consolidation—all of which should translate into above-market earnings growth for investors. Therefore, we suggest long-term investors should view the current environment, the relatively weak near-term outlook for industry demand, and the resulting depressed valuations across the transportation group as an opportunity to build positions in several companies that we view as long-term industry winners.” October 30, 2006 |
“In this fundamentally tight supply/demand environment, the trick is to provide very good service with the fleet you have rather than mediocre service with a fleet that’s growing,” Larkin says. The high-service carriers have been able to command prices that meet or even exceed rising costs. Considering the capacity constraints, that favorable pricing position should hold unless demand drops off dramatically.” |
Jon A. Langenfeld, Baird September 26, 2006 |
“The US’ national average for diesel fuel has fallen -15% from August 2006’s peak of $3.07/gallon and -10% quarter-to-date. The decline should benefit TL carriers and offset the drag caused by the run-up in diesel prices for the first 6 weeks of 3Q06. Importantly, diesel fuel prices at current levels and below set up nicely for 4Q06, as TL carriers suffered from the spike in fuel costs following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 4Q05.” |
Edward Wolfe, Bear Stearns September 15, 2006 |
“We suspect much of the weaker TL demand is actually resulting from an increased supply of trucks. Outside of weakened direct and in-direct demand for home building, which we estimate represents about 8% and 6.5% respectively of TL and LTL total revenue; we see few signs of a slowing freight economy. During the 4Q, the TL and LTL carriers will face very steep comparisons versus a year ago when the U.S. government spent about $300M on purchasing truck capacity in the Gulf, during the already capacity constrained strong peak shipping season.” |
Source: Wall Street Research |
Public Market Perspective 10 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective Truckload Sectors P/E Trading Multiples Over Time |
Next Full Fiscal Year P/E Multiple over Time 5 Year 3 Year 1 Year Median High Low Median High Low Median High Low Silver 14.3x 32.5x 9.4x 13.2x 17.6x 9.4x 12.7x 16.7x 9.4x Silver Rank (Out of 7 peers) 7 NM 5 7 NM 5 7 NM 7 Covenant 15.8x 35.6x 8.2x 16.1x 35.6x 8.2x 18.3x 35.6x 15.0x Heartland Express 19.9 26.0 15.5 19.4 24.9 15.5 18.8 21.5 15.5 J.B. Hunt 15.8 31.5 11.3 15.2 19.4 11.5 14.0 17.8 11.5 Knight Transport 21.5 30.5 16.0 20.0 26.6 16.0 19.6 26.6 16.0 U.S. Xpress 14.7 48.4 7.0 13.3 21.9 7.1 14.6 18.6 10.0 Werner 15.4 24.0 11.4 14.0 18.7 11.4 13.0 16.4 11.4 Median 15.8x 31.5x 11.3x 15.2x 21.9x 11.4x 14.6x 18.6x 11.5x Current P/E CY2006E P/E 21.5x 17.7x 14.8x 14.8x 14.1x 13.1x 11.7x NM Knight Heartland Werner J.B. Hunt Silver Current1 U.S. Xpress Silver Undisturbed2 Covenant CY2007E P/E 29.4x 18.3x 17.5x 13.9x 14.0x 13.6x 11.6x 10.8x Covenant Knight Heartland Werner Silver Current1 J.B. Hunt Silver Undisturbed2 U.S. Xpress |
Source: Thomson, IBES and Factset (as of November 24, 2006)1Silver’s P/E multiples calculated using the $29 per share JM proposal.2Based on Silver share price of $24.05, immediately prior to offer (November 3, 2006). Public Market Perspective 11 |
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Highly Confidential |
Public Market Perspective Truckload Sectors EV / EBITDA Trading Multiples Over Time |
Current Fiscal Year EV/EBITDA Multiple over Time 5 Year 3 Year 1 Year Median High Low Median High Low Median High Low |
Silver 5.9x 8.8x 4.2x 5.4x 7.6x 4.2x 5.1x 6.4x 4.2x Silver Rank (Out of 7 peers) 4 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 |
Covenant 4.3x 5.7x 2.5x 4.3x 5.7x 2.5x 4.4x 5.7x 3.8x Heartland Express 9.4 14.0 6.5 8.8 11.8 6.5 8.3 9.9 6.5 |
J.B. Hunt 6.2 8.1 4.3 6.6 8.1 5.3 6.5 7.5 5.3 |
Knight Transport 9.7 12.3 7.5 9.1 12.3 7.5 8.8 12.2 7.5 |
U.S. Xpress 5.1 8.1 3.6 5.5 8.1 3.6 5.8 7.3 4.6 |
Werner 5.1 6.4 3.7 4.6 6.0 3.7 4.2 5.3 3.7 |
Median 5.9x 8.1x 4.2x 5.5x 8.1x 4.2x 5.8x 7.3x 4.6x Current EV/EBITDA Multiples CY2006E EV/EBITDA |
8.6x 7.3x 7.1x 6.4x 5.2x 5.1x 4.4x 4.3x Knight Heartland Covenant J.B. Hunt Silver Current1 U.S. Xpress Silver Undisturbed2 Werner CY2007E EV/EBITDA |
7.3x 7.0x 6.1x 6.0x 5.2x 4.5x 4.4x 4.1x Knight Heartland Covenant J.B. Hunt Silver Current1 U.S. Xpress Silver Undisturbed2 Werner Source: Thomson, IBES and Factset (as of November 24, 2006)1Silver’s multiples calculated using the $29 per share JM proposal.2Based on Silver share price of $24.05, immediately prior to offer (November 3, 2006). Public Market Perspective 12 |
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Highly Confidential |
II. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 13 |
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Highly Confidential |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 2007E-2011E Plan Assumptions |
Assumes GDP growth of 2.0% in 2007 and 3.0% in the years thereafter 4% — 5% year over year fleet growth —Assumes 100% of new equipment purchased rather than leased Approximately 1% year over year loaded utilization improvement Approximately $0.05 year over year revenue per loaded mile (RPLM) improvement (3% — 3.3%) |
20 basis point deadhead improvement in 2008E – 2009E; another 20 basis point improvement in 2010E – 2011E |
$ 110 million carrier revenue annual growth ($100mm = Intermodal; $10mm = Brokerage) |
$ 0.015/RPLM driver wage increase in 2008E – 2009E; $0.02/RPLM increase in 2011E |
$0.02/RPLM owner/operator wage increase in 2008E – 2011E Fuel impact neutral to 2006E and miles per gallon flat to 2006E |
5.7% — 5.8% insurance as a percent of Net Revenue (excl. fuel surcharge and carrier revenue) |
Impairment charges for freightline tradeback units are included No impact from derivative instruments included |
Management intends to revise current 2006E projections downward post the November close, but will maintain 2007E through 2011E as is |
Source: Silver Management Financial Plan |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 14 |
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Review of Silver Management Financial Plan Summary Financial Projections (US$ in millions, except per share amounts) |
06E-11E Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR Operating Revenues $ $2,397.7 $ $2,826.2 $ $3,197.5 $ $3,216.3 $ $3,369.5 $ $3,693.2 $ $4,076.1 $ $4,506.1 $ $4,964.0 9.1% |
% Growth 17.9% 13.1% 0.6% 4.8% 9.6% 10.4% 10.5% 10.2% EBITDA1 $ 291.6 $ 364.4 $ $406.6 $ 499.2 $ $ 517.7 $ $ 611.7 $ 696.8 $ 800.0 $ 921.9 13.1% |
% Margin 12.2% 12.9% 12.7% 15.5% 15.4% 16.6% 17.1% 17.8% 18.6% Rental Expense 82.4 81.4 57.7 51.5 49.1 22.6 19.3 17.0 4.8 |
EBITDAR1 $ 374.0 $ 445.8 $ $464.3 $ 550.7 $ $ 566.8 $ $ 634.3 $ 716.1 $ 817.0 $ 926.8 11.0% |
% Margin 15.6% 15.8% 14.5% 17.1% 16.8% 17.2% 17.6% 18.1% 18.7% D&A 150.6 183.8 199.8 223.2 237.7 270.9 303.2 319.3 340.5 |
% Sales 6.3% 6.5% 6.2% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.4% 7.1% 6.9% EBIT1 $ 141.0 $ 180.6 $ $206.8 $ 276.0 $ $ 280.0 $ $ 340.7 $ 393.6 $ 480.8 $ 581.5 16.1% Operating Ratio1 94.1% 93.6% 93.5% 91.4% 91.7% 90.8% 90.3% 89.3% 88.3% |
Interest Expense (net) 15.4 18.0 28.2 25.2 11.4 11.6 10.1 2.7 (1.4) |
Net Income1 79.4 103.5 108.7 139.3 165.8 202.9 236.2 294.0 358.2 20.8% % Sales 3.3% 3.7% 3.4% 4.3% 4.9% 5.5% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% EPS (diluted)1 $ 0.94 $ 1.29 $1.47 $ 1.84 $ 2.18 $ 2.65 $ 3.08 $ 3.81 $ 4.63 20.3% |
% Growth 37.3% 14.1% 24.8% 18.4% 21.9% 15.9% 24.0% 21.4% Reported EPS (diluted) $1.37 $ 2.05 |
Wall Street Median EPS Estimates2 $ 2.06 $ 2.07 $ 2.50 |
% Variance vs. Wall Street Estimates (0.6)% 5.1% 6.1% Capex Net Proceeds from Asset Sales 222.8 323.8 386.8 163.3 322.9 490.5 417.7 443.5 479.9 |
% Sales 9.3% 11.5% 12.1% 5.1% 9.6% 13.3% 10.2% 9.8% 9.7% Change in Working Capital 1.0 (13.9) (46.9) 4.0 0.9 0.4 (3.2) (3.6) (3.9) |
Deferred Taxes 30.6 21.6 3.7 (3.3) (10.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 |
Levered Cash Flow $ 36.7 $ (1.0) $(27.7) $ 192.0 $ 69.7 $ (17.0) $ 124.9 $ 173.4 $ 222.7 Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan1Excludes impact of impairments, 401k benefits, stock option acceleration, litigation settlements and gains/losses on property and derivatives.2Source: IBES. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 15 |
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Review of Silver Management Financial Plan Summary Credit Statistics (US$ in millions) |
Capital Structure 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Cash $ 19.1 $ 28.2 $ 13.1 $ $ 22.7 $ $ 26.6 $ $ 31.0 $ $ 65.5 $ $ 111.3 $ $321.6 Total Debt $383.4 $605.8 $609.0 $ $ 365.0 $ $ 255.0 $ $ 265.0 $ $ 165.0 $ $ 30.0 $0.0 Net Debt 364.4 577.6 595.9 342.3 228.4 234.0 99.5 (81.3) (321.6) Stockholders Equity 844.6 738.3 870.0 1,041.1 1,212.9 1,421.8 1,664.0 1,964.0 2,328.2 Credit Statistics Total Debt/EBITDA 1.3 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 0.7 x 0.5 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.0 x 0.0 x EBITDA/Interest Expense 18.9 x 20.2 x 14.4 x 19.8 x 45.3 x 52.9 x 69.1 x NM NM (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest 4.5 x 2.3 x 0.7 x 13.3 x 17.1 x 10.5 x 27.7 x NM NM Total Debt/Capitalization 31% 45% 41% 26% 17% 16% 9% 2% 0% FFO/Total Debt1 60% 47% 51% 99% 158% 179% 327% NM NM FCF/Total Debt2 10% (0)% (5)% 53% 27% -6% 76% NM NM Adj. Total Debt3 $ 674.2 $ 549.6 $ 400.8 $ 280.5 $ 131.9 $ 29.0 Adj. Total Debt/EBITDAR3 1.2 x 1.0 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.0 x Adj. Total Debt/Capitalization3 39% 31% 22% 14% 6% 1% |
Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan1FFO defined as Net Income plus depreciation and amortization.2FCF defined as FFO less capex, changes in working capital and deferred taxes.3Credit statistics adjusted for operating leases using a 6.0x multiple of annual rent expense. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 16 |
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Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 1996-2011E (US$ in millions) |
Historical and Projected Net Revenues |
$ 4,964 $4,506 $4,076 $3,693 $3,197 $3,216 $3,370 $2,826 $2,398 $2,112 $2,101 $1,061 $1,259 $714 $873 $ 562 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E |
Growth Rate (y-y) 23% 27% 22% 22% 19% 68% (1)% 14% 18% 13% 1% 5% 10% 10% 11% 10% |
Historical and Projected Operating Ratio |
96.3% |
94.3% 94.0% |
93.5% 93.5% |
92.0% 91.4% 91.7% |
90.3% 90.8% 90.3% |
89.5% 89.0% 89.3% |
88.6% 88.3% |
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E |
Operating Ratio (y-y) 0.5% (0.8)% (0.9)% 0.4% 3% 4.3% (2.0)% (0.3)% (0.5)% 0.0% (2.1)% 0.3% (0.9)% (0.5)% (1.0)% (1.0)% |
Source: Factset, Silver Management Financial Plan |
1 In 2001 Silver completed the acquisition of MS Carriers; prior periods not pro forma for acquisition. |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 17 |
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Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis Silver Wall Street Research P/E Multiple Over Time (US$ per share) |
Recession Recession 35x $ 2.50 1991-1992 2001-2002 Consensus) 30x Median P/E = 16.5x Median P/E = 13.5x $ 2.00 Next Fiscal 25x Street $ 1.50 20x Year Wall Street 15x $ 1.00 Year P/E (Wall Fiscal EPS 10x Estimate Next $ 0.50 Silver 5x 0x $ 0.00 Sep-1990 Sep-1993 Sep-1996 Sep-1999 Sep-2002 Sep-2005 Silver P/E (Wall Street) Silver EPS Estimate (Wall Street) |
Source: Factset, IBES. Market data as of November 24, 2006 |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 18 |
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Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis |
Illustrative Future Share Price Analysis (US$ in millions, except per share amounts) |
Illustrative Future Silver Share Price 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Silver Management Financial Plan EPS Silver Management Financial Plan EBITDA12 $ 2.18 $ 2.65 $ 3.08 $ 3.81 $ 4.63 $517.7 $611.7 $696.8 $800.0 $921.9 |
10.0 x $ $21.76 $ $26.53 $ $30.75 $ $38.14 $ $46.29 4.0 x $24.18 $28.93 $35.00 $42.57 $51.81 |
11.0 x 23.94 29.18 33.83 41.95 50.91 4.4 x 26.90 32.13 38.63 46.72 56.57 |
Trailing Forward 11.6 x 25.25 30.77 35.67 44.24 53.69 4.5 x 27.58 32.93 39.54 47.75 57.76 |
EBITDA P/E 12.0 x 26.12 31.83 36.90 45.77 55.54 5.0 x 30.98 36.93 44.07 52.94 63.72 |
Multiple Multiple 13.0 x 28.29 34.49 39.98 49.58 60.17 5.5 x 34.37 40.92 48.61 58.13 69.68 |
14.0 x 30.47 37.14 43.05 53.39 64.80 6.0 x 37.77 44.92 53.15 63.32 75.63 |
15.0 x 32.64 39.79 46.13 57.21 69.43 |
Present Value of Illustrative Future Silver Share Price3 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Silver Management Financial Plan EPS Silver Management Financial Plan EBITDA2 $ 2.18 $ 2.65 $ 3.08 $ 3.81 $ 4.63 $517.7 $611.7 $696.8 $800.0 $921.9 10.0 x $ $21.76 $ $23.69 $ $24.52 $ $27.15 $ $29.42 4.0 x $21.59 $23.06 $24.91 $27.05 $29.40 |
11.0 x 23.94 26.05 26.97 29.86 32.36 4.4 x 24.02 25.61 27.50 29.69 32.10 |
Trailing Forward 11.6 x 25.25 27.48 28.44 31.49 34.12 4.5 x 24.62 26.25 28.14 30.35 32.78 |
EBITDA P/E 12.0 x 26.12 28.42 29.42 32.58 35.30 5.0 x 27.66 29.44 31.37 33.65 36.16 |
Multiple Multiple 13.0 x 28.29 30.79 31.87 35.29 38.24 5.5 x 30.69 32.62 34.60 36.94 39.54 |
14.0 x 30.47 33.16 34.32 38.01 41.18 6.0 x 33.73 35.81 37.83 40.24 42.92 |
15.0 x 32.64 35.53 36.77 40.72 44.12 |
Source: Projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan Note: Highlighted values illustrate values implied by Silver undisturbed multiple, immediately prior to offer (November 3, 2006) |
1 Future share price calculated as the implied enterprise value less the net debt projected for that year by Silver Management Financial Plan, divided by the projected shares outstanding in that year. |
2 EBITDA excludes impact of impairments, 401k benefits, stock option acceleration, litigation settlements and gains/losses on property and derivatives.3 Assumes a 12% equity discount rate.4 Implied present value of future share price for 2008E-2011E based off of EPS for each year discounted back to December 31, 2006. |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 19 |
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Wall Street Consensus Analysis Illustrative Future Share Price Analysis (US$ per share) |
Illustrative Future Silver Share Price Revenue Growth 05-06E 06E-07E 07E-08E 06E-08E 2007E 2008E Silver Management Financial Plan 0.6% 4.8% 9.6% 7.2% Wall Street Consensus EPS Silver Wall Street Consensus 1.2% 3.7% 2.9% 3.3% $ 2.07 $ 2.50 Truckload 10.0 x $ $20.70 $ $25.00 Covenant 6.3% 4.2% 1.7% 3.0% 11.0 x 22.77 27.50 Heartland 9.4% 8.2% 11.5% 3.0% Forward 11.6 x 24.01 29.00 J.B. Hunt 8.3% 6.3% 5.7% 6.0% P/E 12.0 x 24.84 30.00 Multiple Knight 19.1% 13.6% 13.3% 13.4% 13.0 x 26.91 32.50 Werner 6.9% 5.3% 5.8% 5.5% 14.0 x 28.98 35.00 U.S. Xpress 28.2% 8.0% 5.3% 6.6% 15.0 x 31.05 37.50 Median 8.9% 7.2% 5.8% 5.8% EPS Growth Present Value of Illustrative Future Silver Share Price1 05-06E 06E-07E 07E-08E 06E-08E 2007E 2008E Silver Management Financial Plan 24.8% 18.4% 21.9% 20.1% Wall Street Consensus EPS2 Silver Wall Street Consensus 39.8% 0.7% 20.8% 10.3% $ 2.18 $ 2.65 Truckload 10.0 x $ $20.70 $ $22.32 Covenant (70.0)% 254.2% 43.5% 125.5% 11.0 x 22.77 24.55 Heartland 25.0% 1.1% 10.9% 5.9% Forward 11.6 x 24.01 25.89 J.B. Hunt 6.5% 8.8% 18.8% 13.7% P/E 12.0 x 24.84 26.79 Knight 19.7% 17.6% 19.0% 18.3% Multiple 13.0 x 26.91 29.02 Werner 4.9% 6.3% 10.3% 8.3% 14.0 x 28.98 31.25 U.S. Xpress 102.9% 21.0% 24.0% 22.5% 15.0 x 31.05 33.48 Median 13.1% 13.2% 18.9% 16.0% |
Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan; Wall Street consensus as per IBES Note: Highlighted values illustrate values implied by Silver undisturbed multiple, immediately prior to offer (November 3, 2006) |
1Assumes a 12% equity discount rate.2Implied 2008E present value of future share price based off of future share price for 2008E discounted back to December 31, 2006. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 20 |
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Review of Silver Management GDP Slowdown Plan 2007E-2011E Plan Assumptions (US $ in millions) |
Assumes flat GDP growth in 2007E and 2008E, and GDP growth of 3.0% in 2009E – 2011E |
1.0% fleet reduction in 2007E, flat in 2008E, followed by 3.0%, 4.5% and 5.0% growth in 2009E – 2011E, respectively |
— Assumes 100% of new equipment purchased rather than leased — No change in asset disposition strategy |
Loaded utilization flat in 2006E – 2008E, followed by 2.5%, 1.25% and 1.0% improvements in 2009E – 2011E, respectively |
1.7% increase in revenue per loaded mile in 2007E (realization of 2006 Q4 increases, no increase for 2007E), 0.6% RPLM increase in 2008E, followed by 4.0%, 3.4% and 3.3% increases in 2009E – 2011E, respectively |
No driver wage increase in 2007E and 2008E, followed by $0.015/RPLM company driver increases in 2009E – 2011E annually |
No owner/operator wage increase in 2007E and 2008E, followed by $0.02 increases in owner/operator wages in 2009E – 2011E annually |
Reduced administrative salaries and benefits in 2007E – 2008E as a result of slowdown |
06E-11E Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E �� CAGR Operating Revenues $ $2,397.7 $ $2,826.2 $ $3,197.5 $ $3,216.3 $ $3,338.0 $ $3,471.0 $ $3,894.0 $ $4,309.5 $ $4,756.5 8.1% |
% Growth 17.9% 13.1% 0.6% 3.8% 4.0% 12.2% 10.7% 10.4% EBITDA1 $ 291.6 $ $ 364.4 $ 406.6 $ 499.2 $ 497.7 $ 529.0 $ $ 646.0 $ 756.9 $ 882.6 12.1% |
% Margin 12.2% 12.9% 12.7% 15.5% 14.9% 15.2% 16.6% 17.6% 18.6% Operating Ratio 94.1% 93.6% 93.5% 91.4% 92.2% 92.5% 91.0% 89.4% 88.0% |
EPS (diluted)1 $ 0.94 $ 1.29 $ 1.47 $ 1.84 $ 2.02 $ 2.01 $ 2.74 $ 3.62 $ 4.55 19.9% |
% Growth 37.3% 14.1% 24.8% 9.7% (0.2)% 36.4% 31.9% 25.7% Levered Cash Flow $ (43.0) $ (1.0) $ (27.7) $ 192.0 $ 57.9 $ (34.7) $ $ 112.9 $ 151.7 $ 192.8 0.1% Source: Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 21 |
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Silver Management GDP Slowdown Plan Analysis Illustrative Future Share Price Analysis (US$ in millions, except per share amounts) |
Illustrative Future Silver Share Price 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Silver Management GDP Slowdown Case EPS Silver Management GDP Slowdown Case EBITDA12 $ 2.02 $ 2.01 $ 2.74 $ 3.62 $ 4.55 $497.7 $529.0 $646.0 $756.9 $882.6 |
10.0 x $ $20.16 $ $20.12 $ $27.44 $ $36.19 $ $45.49 4.0 x $22.98 $24.22 $31.81 $39.51 $48.57 |
11.0 x 22.17 22.13 30.18 39.80 50.04 4.4 x 25.59 26.99 35.18 43.44 53.13 |
Trailing Forward 11.6 x 23.38 23.33 31.83 41.98 52.77 4.5 x 26.24 27.68 36.02 44.42 54.27 |
EBITDA P/E 12.0 x 24.19 24.14 32.93 43.42 54.58 5.0 x 29.51 31.14 40.23 49.33 59.97 |
Multiple Multiple 13.0 x 26.20 26.15 35.67 47.04 59.13 5.5 x 32.78 34.59 44.43 54.24 65.68 |
14.0 x 28.22 28.16 38.41 50.66 63.68 6.0 x 36.04 38.05 48.64 59.15 71.38 |
15.0 x 30.24 30.17 41.16 54.28 68.23 |
Present Value of Illustrative Future Silver Share Price3 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Silver Management GDP Slowdown Case EPS Silver Management GDP Slowdown Case EBITDA2 $ 2.02 $ 2.01 $ 2.74 $ 3.62 $ 4.55 $497.7 $529.0 $646.0 $756.9 $882.6 10.0 x $ $20.16 $ $17.96 $ $21.87 $ $25.76 $ $28.91 4.0 x $20.52 $19.31 $22.64 $25.11 $27.56 |
11.0 x 22.17 19.76 24.06 28.33 31.80 4.4 x 22.85 21.51 25.04 27.60 30.15 |
Trailing Forward 11.6 x 23.38 20.83 25.37 29.88 33.53 4.5 x 23.43 22.06 25.64 28.23 30.79 |
EBITDA P/E 12.0 x 24.19 21.55 26.25 30.91 34.69 5.0 x 26.35 24.82 28.63 31.35 34.03 |
Multiple Multiple 13.0 x 26.20 23.35 28.44 33.48 37.58 5.5 x 29.27 27.58 31.63 34.47 37.27 |
14.0 x 28.22 25.14 30.62 36.06 40.47 6.0 x 32.18 30.33 34.62 37.59 40.50 |
15.0 x 30.24 26.94 32.81 38.63 43.36 |
Source: Projections as per Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan Note: Highlighted values illustrate values implied by Silver undisturbed multiple, immediately prior to offer (November 3, 2006) |
1 Future share price calculated as the implied enterprise value less the net debt projected for that year by Silver Management Financial Plan, divided by the projected shares outstanding in that year. |
2EBITDA excludes impact of impairments, 401k benefits, stock option acceleration, litigation settlements and gains/losses on property and derivatives.3Assumes a 12% equity discount rate.4Implied present value of future share price for 2008E-2011E based off of EPS for each year discounted back to December 31, 2006. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 22 |
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Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis Illustrative Present Value of Future Share Price Sensitivity Analysis1 (US$ per share) |
Present Value of Illustrative Future Silver Share Price1 Assumes Annual Revenue Growth Decreases by 100 bps in Each Year Relative to Silver Assumes Annual Operating Ratio Increases by 100 bps in Each Year Relative to Silver Management Financial Plan Management Financial Plan 200 200 200 2010E 201 200 2008E 200 201 2011E 7E 8E 9E 1E 7E 9E 0E Sensitivity to Silver Management Financial Plan EPS2 Sensitivity to Silver Management Financial Plan EPS2 $ 2.15 $ 2.60 $ 2.99 $3.68 $ 4.42 $ 1.91 $ 2.36 $ 2.75 $ 3.46 $ 4.24 |
10.0 x $ $21.55 $ $23.23 $ $23.83 $ 26.16 $ $28.10 10.0 x $ $19.06 $ $21.05 $ $21.93 $ $24.60 $ $26.92 |
11.0 x 23.70 25.56 26.21 28.78 30.91 11.0 x 20.96 23.15 24.12 27.06 29.61 |
11.6 x 25.00 26.95 27.64 30.35 32.60 11.6 x 22.11 24.42 25.43 28.54 31.23 |
Forward Forward P/E P/E Multiple 12.0 x 25.86 27.88 28.60 31.39 33.72 Multiple 12.0 x 22.87 25.26 26.31 29.52 32.30 |
13.0 x 28.01 30.20 30.98 34.01 36.53 13.0 x 24.77 27.36 28.50 31.98 35.00 |
14.0 x 30.17 32.53 33.36 36.63 39.34 14.0 x 26.68 29.47 30.70 34.44 37.69 |
15.0 x 32.32 34.85 35.74 39.24 42.15 15.0 x 28.59 31.57 32.89 36.90 40.38 |
Assumes Annual Revenue Growth Decreases by 100 bps and Operating Ratio Increases by 100 bps in Each Year Relative to Silver Management Financial Plan 200 200 200 2010E 201 7E 8E 9E 1E Sensitivity to Silver Management Financial Plan EPS2 $ 1.89 $ 2.31 $ 2.67 $3.33 $ 4.05 10.0 x $ $18.87 $ $20.64 $ $21.31 $ 23.71 $ $25.72 |
11.0 x 20.75 22.71 23.44 26.08 28.29 |
11.6 x 21.89 23.95 24.72 27.50 29.83 |
Forward P/E Multiple 12.0 x 22.64 24.77 25.57 28.45 30.86 |
13.0 x 24.53 26.84 27.70 30.82 33.43 |
14.0 x 26.42 28.90 29.84 33.19 36.00 |
15.0 x 28.30 30.97 31.97 35.56 38.58 |
Source: Underlying Silver projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan Note: Increases/Decreases in each year are not cumulative; Highlighted values illustrate values implied by Silver undisturbed multiple, immediately prior to offer (November 3, 2006) |
1Assumes a 12% equity discount rate.2Implied present value of future share price for 2008E-2011E based off of future share price for each year discounted back to December 31, 2006. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 23 |
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Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis Illustrative Discounted Cash Flows (US$ in millions) |
2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E |
Revenue $ $3,216 $ $3,370 $ $3,693 $ $4,076 $ $4,506 $4,964 |
EBITDA $ 499 $ 518 $ 612 $ 697 $ 800 $ 922 |
EBIT 276 280 341 394 481 581 |
Unlevered Net Income 169 171 209 241 294 356 |
+Depreciation & Amortization 223 238 271 303 319 340 |
- Capex 163 323 490 418 443 480 |
- Increase / (Decrease) in NWC 24 1 0 (3) (4) (4) |
+ Increase in Deferred Taxes (3) (10) 0 0 0 0 |
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $ 202 $ 75 $ (11) $ 130 $ 174$220 Source: Projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 24 |
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Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis Illustrative Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (US$ per share) |
Key Assumptions Equity Value Per Share1 |
Projections are per Silver Management Financial Plan Perpetuity Growth Rate |
Unlevered free cash flows discounted back to 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 4.5 % December 31, 2006 11.0% $ 23.04 $ 24.47 $ 26.09 $ 27.94 $ 30.08 |
Rate 10.5% 24.90 26.54 28.42 30.59 33.12 |
Unlevered free cash flow defined as: Discount 10.0% 27.00 28.92 31.12 33.69 36.73 |
9.5% 29.42 31.66 34.27 37.36 41.06 |
+ Unlevered Net Income 9.0% 32.21 34.86 38.00 41.77 46.37 |
+ Depreciation and Amortization — Capital Expenditures Implied Terminal Multiples of 2011E EBITDA — Increases in Working Capital Perpetuity Growth Rate |
+ Increase in deferred taxes 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 4.5 % = Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11.0% 3.0 x 3.2 x 3.5 x 3.7 x 4.0 x Rate 10.5% 3.2 x 3.4 x 3.7 x 4.0 x 4.4 x |
Terminal value is based on a perpetuity growth rate of Discount 10.0% 3.4 x 3.7 x 4.0 x 4.3 x 4.8 x |
free cash flow in 2011E 9.5% 3.7 x 4.0 x 4.3 x 4.7 x 5.2 x |
Marginal tax rate of 38.8% 9.0% 3.9 x 4.3 x 4.7 x 5.2 x 5.8 x Source: Projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan1Assumes net debt of $342.9 and 74.9 million basic shares outstanding at December 31, 2006 as per Silver Management Financial Plan. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 25 |
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Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis Illustrative Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis (US$ per share) |
Implied Equity Value Per Share12 Change in Each Year’s Sales Growth vs. Silver Management Financial Plan (3.0)% (2.0)% (1.0)% 0.0 % 1.0 % 2.0 % 3.0 % |
Plan 3.0% $11.48 $12.22 $12.99 $ 13.79 $ 14.61 $ 15.46 $ 16.35 |
2.0% 16.08 17.01 17.98 18.99 20.00 21.03 22.10 |
Financial (1.0)% 20.61 21.69 22.81 23.96 25.16 26.41 27.69 |
0.0% 24.98 26.24 27.56 28.92 30.32 31.78 33.29 |
Ratio vs. Silver |
Management |
in Each Year’s |
Operating Change (1.0)% 29.35 30.80 32.31 33.87 35.48 37.16 38.89 |
(2.0)% 33.72 35.36 37.06 38.82 40.64 42.53 44.49 |
(3.0)% 38.09 39.91 41.81 43.77 45.80 47.91 50.08 |
Source: Projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan1Assumes net debt of $342.9 and 74.9 million basic shares outstanding at December 31, 2006 as per Silver Management Financial Plan.2Assumes a discount rate of 10.0% and a perpetuity growth rate of 3.0%. |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 26 |
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Silver Management GDP Slowdown Plan Analysis Illustrative Discounted Cash Flows (US$ in millions) |
2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E |
Revenue $ $3,216 $ $3,338 $ $3,471 $ $3,894 $ $4,310 $4,756 |
EBITDA $ 499 $ 498 $ 529 $ 646 $ 757 $ 883 |
EBIT 276 260 261 352 456 571 |
Unlevered Net Income 169 159 159 215 279 350 |
+Depreciation & Amortization 223 238 268 294 301 311 |
- Capex 163 323 455 395 432 474 |
- Increase / (Decrease) in NWC 24 1 2 (4) (3) (4) |
+ Increase in Deferred Taxes (3) (9) 0 0 0 0 |
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $ 202 $ 63 $ (29) $ 118 $ 152$190 |
Source: Projections as per Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan |
Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 27 |
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Silver Management GDP Slowdown Plan Analysis Illustrative Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (US$ per share) |
Key Assumptions Equity Value Per Share1 |
Projections are per Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 4.5 % |
Unlevered free cash flows discounted back to 11.0% $ 19.29 $ 20.53 $ 21.93 $ 23.53 $ 25.38 |
December 31, 2006 Rate 10.5% 20.90 22.32 23.95 25.82 28.01 |
Discount 10.0% 22.72 24.37 26.28 28.50 31.13 |
Unlevered free cash flow defined as: |
9.5% 24.80 26.74 29.00 31.67 34.87 |
+ Unlevered Net Income 9.0% 27.21 29.51 32.22 35.48 39.46 |
+ Depreciation and Amortization Implied Terminal Multiples of 2011E EBITDA |
- Capital Expenditures Perpetuity Growth Rate |
- Increases in Working Capital 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 4.5 % |
+ Increase in deferred taxes 11.0% 2.7 x 2.9 x 3.1 x 3.4 x 3.7 x |
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow Rate 10.5% 2.9 x 3.1 x 3.4 x 3.6 x 4.0 x Discount 10.0% 3.1 x 3.3 x 3.6 x 3.9 x 4.3 x |
Terminal value is based on a perpetuity growth rate of 9.5% 3.3 x 3.6 x 3.9 x 4.3 x 4.7 x |
free cash flow in 2011E 9.0% 3.6 x 3.9 x 4.2 x 4.7 x 5.2 x |
Marginal tax rate of 38.8% Source: Projections as per Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan1Assumes net debt of $342.9 and 74.9 million basic shares outstanding at December 31, 2006 as per Silver Management Financial Plan. Review of Silver Management Financial Plan 28 |
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III. Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial |
Buyer Interest |
Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 29 |
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Summary of Precedent Selected Trucking Transactions (US$ in millions) |
Median LTL TL Both LTL 6.2x TL 4.8x ALL 6.1x 7.4 x 7.3 x 6.0 x 6.4 x 6.1 x 5.9 x 5.7 x Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA 3.9 x Announced 26-May-2006 27-Oct-2005 15-May-2005 27-Feb-2005 08-Jul-2003 21-Aug-2001 12-Dec-2000 12-Nov-2000 Date Target Watkins Motor Lines Transport Corporation Overnite USF Roadway Arnold Industrie s M.S.Carriers American Freightways Buyer FedEx Goldner Hawn United Parcel Service Yellow Yellow Roadway Swift FedEx Value $ 780 $ 113 $1,276 $1,468 $1,113 $503 $678 $1,212 Premium1 – 25.0% 46.2% 22.3% 59.9% – 52.5% 71.8% |
Source: Company filings1Premium based on stock price 1 day prior to announcement. Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 30 |
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Silver Analysis at Various Prices (US$ in millions except per share amounts) |
Purchase Price Per Silver Share ($) $ 29.00 $ 30.00 $ 31.00 $ 32.00 $ 33.00 $ 34.00 Premium to Market Price (Nov-24-06) $27.61 5.0% 8.7% 12.3% 15.9% 19.5% 23.1% Premium to Undisturbed Price (Nov-3-06) 24.05 20.6% 24.7% 28.9% 33.1% 37.2% 41.4% Premium to 52 Week / All Time High 33.62 (13.7)% (10.8)% (7.8)% (4.8)% (1.8)% 1.1% Premium to 52 Week Low 19.11 51.8% 57.0% 62.2% 67.5% 72.7% 77.9% Premium to 1 Week Weighted Average 24.68 17.5% 21.6% 25.6% 29.7% 33.7% 37.8% Premium to 1 Month Weighted Average 25.73 12.7% 16.6% 20.5% 24.4% 28.3% 32.1% Premium to 3 Month Weighted Average 24.72 17.3% 21.4% 25.4% 29.4% 33.5% 37.5% Premium to 6 Month Weighted Average 26.96 7.6% 11.3% 15.0% 18.7% 22.4% 26.1% Equity Consideration — Diluted1 $ $2,207.4 $ $2,286.1 $ $2,364.7 $ $2,443.4 $ $2,522.1 $ $2,600.8 Enterprise Value2 2,549.7 2,628.3 2,707.0 2,785.7 2,864.4 2,943.0 |
Enterprise Value / Sales FY 2006E $ $3,216.3 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x |
FY 2007E 3,369.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 |
Enterprise Value / EBITDA FY 2006E $ $ 499.2 5.1 x 5.3 x 5.4 x 5.6 x 5.7 x 5.9 x |
FY 2007E 517.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 |
Enterprise Value / EBIT FY 2006E $ $ 276.0 9.2 x 9.5 x 9.8 x 10.1 x 10.4 x 10.7 x |
FY 2007E 280.0 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 |
rice / EPS FY 2006E $ 2.05 14.2 x 14.7 x 15.1 x 15.6 x 16.1 x 16.6 x |
FY 2007E 2.18 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 |
Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan |
Note: Silver weighted average prices are undisturbed as of November 3, 2006 |
(1) Assumes 74.9 million basic shares outstanding as of 31 December 2006. Assumes exercise of 3.8 million options outstanding with a weighted average strike price of $19.45. (2) Assumes net debt of $342.3 million as of 31 December 2006 as per Silver Management. |
Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 31 |
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Analysis of Third Party Interest Strategic & Financial (US$ in millions) |
Strategic Financial Name Market Cap Name Fund Size |
Delivery/Logistics Blackstone $20,000 |
UPS $80,612 Cerberus Partners LP 17,000 |
FedEx 35,672 Apollo Management LP 10,000 |
DPWN 33,597 Warburg Pincus LLC 8,000 |
Carlyle Group 7,850 |
Truckload Clayton Dubilier & Rice Inc. 4,000 |
JB Hunt 3,249 Court Square Capital 2,500 |
Knight 1,600 Kelso & Company 2,100 |
Heartland 1,585 Nautic Partners LLC 1,100 |
Werner Enterprises 1,476 Freeman Spogli & Company Inc. 1,000 |
Fenway Partners Inc. 900 |
Railroads Greenbriar 700 |
Burlington Santa Fe 28,627 |
Canadian National 25,753 |
Union Pacific 24,727 |
Norfolk Southern 22,416 |
CSX 16,713 |
Source: Company filings, Factset |
Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 32 |
![(PICTURE)](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3/0000950124-07-000857/p73441e3p73441z0032.gif)
Highly Confidential |
Illustrative Acquisition Analysis1,2,3 |
Selected Potential Delivery/Logistics Acquirors (US$ in millions) |
UPS Acquires Silver (100% Cash) FedEx Acquires Silver (100% Cash) |
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% Accret ion/Di lution Accretion/Dilution 2.3% |
2.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 2007E 1.1% 2007E |
Silver Price $ 29 $ 30 $ 31 $ 32 $ 33 $ 34 Silver Price $ 29 $ 30 $ 31 $ 32 $ 33 $ 34 |
Synerg ies to Synergies to ($ 110) ($ 104) ($ 98) ($ 92) ($ 86) ($ 80) ($ 105) ($ 98) ($ 92) ($ 86) ($ 79) ($ 73) |
Breake ven Breakeven Debt/E BITDA 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x Debt/EBITDA 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x |
Source: Company filings; IBES; Bloomberg Note: Financial performance for acquiror and for Silver based on IBES estimates |
1 Assumes 20.0% of the excess purchase price is allocated to asset write-ups, which are amortized/depreciated on a straight line basis over 10 years. Remainder is allocated to goodwill. |
2 Assumes all cash transaction financed with 5.4% and 5.75% cost of incremental debt for UPS and FedEx, respectively; assumes financing fees of 2.5%. |
3Assumes 50% of UPS’ and 40% of FedEx’s cash used to fund the acquisition; 0% of the target’s cash is used to fund the acquisition. Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 33 |
![(PICTURE)](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3/0000950124-07-000857/p73441e3p73441z0033.gif)
Highly Confidential |
Illustrative Acquisition Analysis1,2 Selected Potential Truckload Acquirors (US$ in millions) |
Knight Acquires Silver (50% cash/50% stock) J.B Hunt Acquires Silver (60% cash/40% stock) Accretion/Dil ution Accretion/Dilution 6.8% 2.9% (0.8)% (0.1)% (2.0)% (4.5)% (3.9)% (5.8)% (8.0)% (7.7)% 2007E (11.5)% 2007E (9.5)% Silver Price $29 $30 $31 $32 $33 $34 Silver Price $29 $30 $31 $32 $33 $34 Synergies to Synergies to ($ 15) ($ 7) $ 2 $ 11 $ 19 $ 28 $ 0 $ 9 $ 19 $ 28 $ 37 $ 46 Breakeven Breakeven Debt/EBITDA 2.3x 2.4x 2.4x 2.5x 2.5x 2.6x Debt/EBITDA 2.0x 2.1x 2.1x 2.2x 2.2x 2.3x Heartland Acquires Silver (50% cash/50% stock) Werner Acquires Silver (60% cash/40% stock) Accretion/Dil ution Accretion/Dilution 4.9% 1.1% (2.6)% (4.2)% (6.1)% (7.8)% 2007E (9.6)% 2007E (11.3)% (12.9)% (14.7)% (18.0)% (21.3)% Silver Price $29 $30 $31 $32 $33 $34 Silver Price $29 $30 $31 $32 $33 $34 Synergies to Synergies to ($ 11) ($ 3) $ 6 $ 15 $ 24 $ 33 $ 11 $ 21 $ 30 $ 40 $ 49 $ 59 Breakeven Breakeven Debt/EBITDA 2.4x 2.4x 2.5x 2.5x 2.6x 2.7x Debt/EBITDA 2.2x 2.2x 2.3x 2.3x 2.4x 2.4x |
Source: Company filings; IBES; Bloomberg |
1 Assumes 20.0% of the excess purchase price is allocated to asset write-ups, which are amortized/depreciated on a straight line basis over 10 years. Remainder is allocated to goodwill. |
2 Assumes a cost of incremental debt of 8.5% for J.B. Hunt and 9.25% for all other companies; 0% of the acquiror’s cash used to fund the acquisition; assumes financing fees of 2.5%. |
Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 34 |
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Highly Confidential |
Illustrative Analysis of a Third Party LBO Assumes $29 Per Share – Silver Management Financial Plan with Cash Generating Initiatives (US$ in millions) |
Sources of Funds Uses of Funds Cost of 2006E1 Sources Amount Debt % of Total EBITDA Uses Amount |
Existing Cash $ 23 0.8% Price Per Share $29.00 |
Equity Purchased $2,207 |
Proceeds from Sale of Property 68 2.5% First Lien 1,248 8.1% 46.0% 2.50 x Existing Debt Retired 365 |
Sr. / Sub. Debt 624 10.8% 23.0% 3.75 x Purchase Price $2,572 |
Total Debt 1,872 69.0% 3.75 x Multiple of 2006E EBITDA 5.2 x Sponsor Equity 750 27.6% 5.25 x Multiple of 2007E EBITDA 5.1 x Change In Control Payments 20 |
Fees & Expenses 97 |
Minimum Cash 23 |
Total Sources $ $2,712 100.0% Total Uses $2,712 Summary Cash Flow & Credit Statistics Illustrative IRR Sensitivity Analysis2 Fiscal Year Ending December Trailing 12 Months Exit EV/EBITDA Multiples 200 2008E 2009E 2010E 4.25 x 4.50 x 4.75 x 5.00 x 5.25 x 7E |
FCF Available for Debt $ 169 $ 198 $ 245 $ 232 Sponsor 2009E 23.2% 27.6% 31.7% 35.5% 39.2% Total Senior Debt 1,079 881 636 404 Exit Year 2010E 25.1% 27.9% 30.5% 32.9% 35.2% Total Debt 1,703 1,505 1,260 1,028 2011E 24.9% 26.8% 28.6% 30.2% 31.8% Credit Statistics |
EBITDA / Tot. Int. Exp. 3.0 x 3.7 x 4.6 x 5.8 x Illustrative IRR Sensitivity Analysis3 EBITDA-Capex / Tot. Int. Exp. 2.3 x 2.9 x 3.7 x 4.4 x Initial Purchase Price Per Silver Share Total Senior Debt / EBITDA 2.2 x 1.6 x 1.0 x 0.6 x $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 $32.00 $33.00 $34.00 Total Debt / EBITDA 3.4 x 2.7 x 2.0 x 1.5 x 3.50 x 26.3% 24.2% 22.2% 20.4% 18.8% 17.2% Adj. Total Debt / EBITDAR 3.7 x 3.0 x 2.5 x 2.3 xInitial Leverage 3.75 x 28.6% 26.0% 23.7% 21.7% 19.8% 18.2% Total Debt / Total Cap 67.9% 62.3% 54.1% 44.3% 4.00 x 31.4% 28.3% 25.7% 23.3% 21.2% 19.2% Adj. Total Debt / Total Cap 71.9% 67.4% 62.8% 58.7% FCF/TD 9.9% 13.1% 19.5% 22.6% |
Source: Financial assumptions are per Silver Management Financial Plan supplemented by cash generating initiatives; Capital Structure as per Goldman Sachs’ preliminary leverage assumptions |
1Assumes 2006E EBITDA of $499mm.2Assumes transaction initial leverage of 3.75x.3Assumes sale at 4.75x trailing 12 month EBITDA and exit in 2011E. Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 35 |
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Highly Confidential |
Illustrative Analysis of a Third Party LBO Assumes $29 Per Share – 100bps decrease in Revenue Growth and 100bps Increase in OR each year (US$ in millions) |
Sources of Funds Uses of Funds Cost of 2006E1 Sources Amount Debt % of Total EBITDA Uses Amount |
Existing Cash $ 23 0.8% Price Per Share $29.00 |
Equity Purchased $2,207 |
Proceeds from Sale of Property 68 2.5% First Lien 1,248 8.1% 46.0% 2.50 x Existing Debt Retired 365 |
Sr. / Sub. Debt 624 10.8% 23.0% 3.75 x Purchase Price $2,572 |
Total Debt 1,872 69.0% 3.75 x Multiple of 2006E EBITDA 5.2 x Sponsor Equity 750 27.6% 5.25 x Multiple of 2007E EBITDA 5.5 x Change In Control Payments 20 |
Fees & Expenses 97 |
Minimum Cash 23 |
Total Sources $ $2,712 100.0% Total Uses $2,712 Summary Cash Flow & Credit Statistics Illustrative IRR Sensitivity Analysis2 Fiscal Year Ending December Trailing 12 Months Exit EV/EBITDA Multiples 200 2008E 2009E 2010E 4.25 x 4.50 x 4.75 x 5.00 x 5.25 x 7E |
FCF Available for Debt $ 147 $ 170 $ 211 $ 189 Sponsor 2009E 13.5% 18.3% 22.6% 26.7% 30.5% Total Senior Debt 1,101 932 721 532 Exit Year 2010E 17.9% 20.9% 23.6% 26.2% 28.7% Total Debt 1,726 1,556 1,345 1,156 2011E 19.1% 21.1% 23.0% 24.8% 26.5% Credit Statistics |
EBITDA / Tot. Int. Exp. 2.7 x 3.4 x 4.0 x 4.9 x Illustrative IRR Sensitivity Analysis3 EBITDA-Capex / Tot. Int. Exp. 2.1 x 2.6 x 3.2 x 3.6 x Initial Purchase Price Per Silver Share Total Senior Debt / EBITDA 2.4 x 1.8 x 1.3 x 0.9 x $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 $32.00 $33.00 $34.00 Total Debt / EBITDA 3.7 x 3.0 x 2.4 x 1.9 x 3.50 x 21.2% 19.1% 17.3% 15.6% 14.0% 12.5% Adj. Total Debt / EBITDAR 4.0 x 3.3 x 2.9 x 2.6 xInitial Leverage 3.75 x 23.0% 20.6% 18.4% 16.4% 14.7% 13.0% Total Debt / Total Cap 68.8% 64.4% 57.7% 49.9% 4.00 x 25.3% 22.4% 19.8% 17.6% 15.5% 13.7% Adj. Total Debt / Total Cap 72.7% 69.2% 65.8% 62.8% FCF/TD 8.5% 10.9% 15.6% 16.4% |
Source: Underlying Financial assumptions are per Silver Management Financial Plan supplemented by cash generating initiatives; Capital Structure as per Goldman Sachs’ preliminary leverage assumptions Note: Change in revenue growth and operating ratio (“OR”) are relative of the Silver Management Financial Plan |
1Assumes 2006E EBITDA of $499mm.2Assumes transaction initial leverage of 3.75x.3Assumes sale at 4.75x trailing 12 month EBITDA and exit in 2011E. Analysis of Potential Third Party Strategic & Financial Buyer Interest 36 |
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Highly Confidential IV. Leveraged Recapitalization Leveraged Recapitalization 37 |
![(PICTURE)](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3/0000950124-07-000857/p73441e3p73441z0037.gif)
Highly Confidential |
Leveraged Recapitalization Analysis |
Credit Comparison 1 |
Debt / Capitalization 57.0% Truckload Median = 26.0% |
47.1% 35.1% 26.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% U.S. Xpress Covenant JB Hunt Silver Current Werner Heartland Knight On-balance $330 $ 169 $ 380 $ 365 $ 10 $ 0 $ 0 |
sheet debt Lease Adjusted Debt / LTM EBITDAR |
4.8x Truckload Median = 1.3x 4.5x 1.6x 1.3x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x Covenant U.S. Xpress JB Hunt Silver Current Werner Knight Heartland On and Off balance $489 $ 877 $1,035 $ 708 $ 10 $3 $ 0 |
sheet debt Credit NA/NA NA/NA BBB+/NA NA/NA NA/NA NA/NA NA/NA Rating Source: Company filings |
Leveraged Recapitalization 38 |
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Highly Confidential |
Silver Management Financial Plan Analysis Leveraged Recapitalization with Proceeds Used to Fund a Special Dividend (US$ in millions, except per share values) |
Special Dividend Per Silver Share $ 6.00 $ 8.00 $ 10.00 $ 12.00 |
Total Dividend Funded With Debt $449.2 $598.9 $ 748.6 $ 898.3 |
Adjustments |
PF 2007E Net Income 142.3 134.4 126.6 118.7 |
PF 2007E EPS $ 1.87 $ 1.76 $ 1.66 $ 1.56 |
PF 2007E Levered FCF 48.8 41.2 33.7 26.1 |
Total Debt3 $814.2 $963.9 $ $1,113.6 $ $1,263.3 |
Levered FCF/Total Debt 6.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.1% Total Debt/2006E EBITDA 1.6 x 1.9 x 2.2 x 2.5 x Total Debt/Capitalization 57.9% 68.6% 79.2% 89.8% Adj. Total Debt/2006E EBITDAR 2.0 x 2.3 x 2.6 x 2.9 x Implied Share Price at 10.0x P/E $18.67 $17.64 $ 16.61 $ 15.58 |
Total Value at 10.0x P/E 24.67 25.64 26.61 27.58 |
Implied Share Price at 11.0x P/E 20.54 19.41 18.28 17.14 |
Total Value at 11.0x P/E 26.54 27.41 28.28 29.14 |
Implied Share Price at 12.0x P/E 22.41 21.17 19.94 18.70 |
Total Value at 12.0x P/E 28.41 29.17 29.94 30.70 |
$29 Breakeven 2007E P/E Multiple 12.3 x 11.9 x 11.4 x 10.9 x |
Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management Financial Plan Note: Adj. Debt is adjusted for value of operating leases assuming a 6.0x multiple of the current year’s rent expense; Assumes basic shares outstanding of 74.9mm and diluted shares outstanding of 76.2mm |
1For illustrative purposes assumes an interest rate of 8.25%.2Financing fees amortized over 8 years.3Total debt figure assumes $365 of current debt is rolled over.4Breakeven multiple is breakeven to $29 per share. Leveraged Recapitalization 39 |
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Highly Confidential Appendix A: Supporting Materials Supporting Materials 40 |
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Highly Confidential |
Review of Silver Management GDP Slowdown Plan Summary Financial Projections (US$ in millions, except per share amounts) |
06E-11E Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR Operating Revenues $ $2,397.7 $ $2,826.2 $ $3,197.5 $ $3,216.3 $ $3,338.0 $ $3,471.0 $ $3,894.0 $ $4,309.5 $ $4,756.5 8.1% |
% Growth 17.9% 13.1% 0.6% 3.8% 4.0% 12.2% 10.7% 10.4% 497.7 529.0 406.6 EBITDA1 $ 291.6 $ 364.4 $ $ 499.2 $ $ $ 646.0 $ 756.9 $ 882.6 12.1% |
% Margin 12.2% 12.9% 12.7% 15.5% 14.9% 15.2% 16.6% 17.6% 18.6% Rental Expense 82.4 81.4 57.7 51.5 49.1 22.6 19.3 17.0 4.8 |
EBITDAR1 $ 374.0 $ 445.8 $ $464.3 $ 550.7 $ $ 546.8 $ $ 551.7 $ 665.3 $ 773.9 $ 887.4 10.0% |
% Margin 15.6% 15.8% 14.5% 17.1% 16.4% 15.9% 17.1% 18.0% 18.7% D&A 150.6 183.8 199.8 223.2 237.7 268.4 294.0 300.8 311.2 |
% Sales 6.3% 6.5% 6.2% 6.9% 7.1% 7.7% 7.6% 7.0% 6.5% EBIT1 $ 141.0 $ 180.6 $ $206.8 $ 276.0 $ $ 260.0 $ $ 260.6 $ 352.0 $ 456.2 $ 571.4 15.7% Operating Ratio1 94.1% 93.6% 93.5% 91.4% 92.2% 92.5% 91.0% 89.4% 88.0% |
Interest Expense (net) 15.4 18.0 28.2 25.2 11.4 11.6 10.1 2.7 (1.4) |
Net Income1 79.4 103.5 108.7 139.3 153.6 153.9 210.7 279.0 352.0 20.4% % Sales 3.3% 3.7% 3.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.4% 5.4% 6.5% 7.4% EPS (diluted)1 $ 0.94 $ 1.29 $1.47 $ 1.84 $ 2.02 $ 2.01 $ 2.74 $ 3.62 $ 4.55 19.9% |
% Growth 37.3% 14.1% 24.8% 9.7% (0.2)% 36.4% 31.9% 25.7% Reported EPS (diluted) $1.37 $ 2.05 |
Wall Street Median EPS Estimates2 $ 2.06 $ 2.07 $ 2.50 |
% Variance vs. Wall Street Estimates (0.6)% (2.6)% (19.5)% Capex Net Proceeds from Asset Sales 222.8 323.8 386.8 163.3 322.9 454.9 395.4 431.6 474.2 |
% Sales 9.3% 11.5% 12.1% 5.1% 9.7% 13.1% 10.2% 10.0% 10.0% Change in Working Capital 80.7 (13.9) (46.9) 4.0 1.2 2.0 (3.6) (3.5) (3.8) |
Deferred Taxes 30.6 21.6 3.7 (3.3) (9.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 |
Levered Cash Flow $ (43.0) $ (1.0) $(27.7) $ 192.0 $ 57.9 $ (34.7) $ 112.9 $ 151.7 $ 192.8 Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan1Excludes impact of impairments, 401k benefits, stock option acceleration, litigation settlements and gains/losses on property and derivatives.2Source: IBES Supporting Materials 41 |
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Highly Confidential |
Review of Silver Management GDP Slowdown Plan Summary Credit Statistics (US$ in millions) |
Capital Structure 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Cash $ 19.1 $ 28.2 $ 13.1 $ $ 22.7 $ $ 14.8 $ $ 1.6 $ $ 24.0 $ $ 48.1 $ $228.6 Total Debt $383.4 $605.8 $609.0 $ $ 365.0 $ $ 255.0 $ $ 265.0 $ $ 165.0 $ $ 30.0 $0.0 Net Debt 364.4 577.6 595.9 342.3 240.2 263.4 141.0 (18.1) (228.6) Stockholders Equity 844.6 738.3 870.0 1,041.1 1,200.7 1,360.5 1,577.2 1,862.2 2,220.2 Credit Statistics Total Debt/EBITDA 1.3 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 0.7 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.3 x 0.0 x 0.0 x EBITDA/Interest Expense 18.9 x 20.2 x 14.4 x 19.8 x 43.6 x 45.7 x 64.1 x NM NM (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest 4.5 x 2.3 x 0.7 x 13.3 x 15.3 x 6.4 x 24.8 x NM NM Total Debt/Capitalization 31% 45% 41% 26% 18% 16% 9% 2% 0% FFO/Total Debt1 60% 47% 51% 99% 153% 159% 306% NM NM FCF/Total Debt2 (11)% (0)% (5)% 53% 23% -13% 68% NM NM Adj. Total Debt3 $ 674.2 $ 549.6 $ 400.8 $ 280.5 $ 131.9 $ 29.0 Adj. Total Debt/EBITDAR3 1.2 x 1.0 x 0.7 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.0 x Adj. Total Debt/Capitalization3 39% 31% 23% 15% 7% 1% |
Source: Silver projections as per Silver Management GDP Slowdown Financial Plan1FFO defined as Net Income plus depreciation and amortization.2FCF defined as FFO less capex, changes in working capital and deferred taxes.3Credit statistics adjusted for operating leases using a 6.0x multiple of annual rent expense. |
Supporting Materials 42 |
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Highly Confidential |
Sources and Uses of Funds (US$ in millions, except per share amount) |
Sources of Funds Uses of Funds |
Total Outstanding Purchase Price/ Amount ( $) Equity Purchased as of 30-Sep-06 Exercise Price Amou $) nt ( Funded Term Debt: Basic Shares 54.6 $29.00 $ $1,582 |
1st Lien $ 1,390 Stock Options 3.8 19.45 36 |
2nd Lien 485 $ $1,619 |
Total Funded Term Debt 1,875 JM Shares Rollover Encumbered3 14.1 $29.00 $ 410 |
JM Shares Rollover Unencumbered2 6.2 29.00 179 |
Minimum Cash Required (estimated)1 22 Total Equity Purchased $ $2,207 |
Equity: Total Debt Retired (06 mgmt estimate; includes securitized AR) 365 |
JM Equity Rollover (Unencumbered)2 179 |
JM Equity Rollover (Encumbered)3 410 Cash on Balance Sheet 22 |
Additional Equity Required4 236 |
Total Contributed Equity $ 825 Estimated Fees: |
Change of Control Payments5 20 |
Advisory Fees (estimated)6 50 |
Financing Fees (estimated @ 2.5%) 57 |
Total Fees (estimated) $ 127 |
Total Sources of Funds $ 2,722 Total Uses of Funds $ $2,722 |
Note: Balance Sheet figures are expected as of December 31, 2006 as per Silver Management Financial Plan. |
1 Assumes that a minimum amount of cash is required to operate the business post-acquisition. In this case, the amount assumed to be retained equals current cash balance as of 30-Sep-2006. |
2Represents Silver shares personally held by JM and not used as collateral in connection with the Shareholder loan to be made by MS. As of latest 13D filing JM personally owns 27% of total outstanding shares of 74.9mm. JM shares do not include the 9,018,353 shares held by (i) the Moyes Children’s Limited Partnership and (ii) seven irrevocable trusts for the benefit of six children of Jerry and Vickie Moyes and by an irrevocable trust for the benefit of Jerry and Vickie Moyes and six of their children. The shares shown for JM also do not include 360,000 shares held by an irrevocable trust for the children of Jerry and Vickie Moyes. 3Assumes JM has pledged $410 million worth of stock as collateral. Therefore, JM will borrow the maximum amount of MS shareholder loan. The shareholder loan will be secured by Silver shares currently held by JM, which in the case of maximum drawdown equals 14.1 million shares of Silver (at the current offer price of $29). |
4 Represents the additional equity required to finance the acquisition of 100% of the company. Under the current proposal of $29/share this amounts to 9,827,586 shares of Silver. The shares currently held by the Moyes Children’s |
Limited Partnership equals 9,018,353 shares and the shares held by an irrevocable trust for the children of Jerry and Vickie Moyes equals 360,000 shares. |
5 Estimated payments to be made to certain members of management based on change of control agreements that have been signed with Silver upon the acquisition by a third party. |
6 Assumes aggregate fees, which includes both sellside and buyside advisory fees. Supporting Materials 43 |
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Highly Confidential |
Analysis of Morgan Stanley (“MS”) Capital Structure |
Pro Forma Capital Structure Credit Views Multiple of 2006E EBITDA1 Mgmt Truckload sector typically viewed as less stable than Less- Amount % of Total Estimate MS Estimate Than-Truckload; however Silver presents certain strengths — Prospect for improved margins as compared to fiscal Unfunded Revolver — — — - 2005 |
Senior Secured 1st Lien $ $1,800 57% 3.8 x 3.4 x — Strong stable blue chip customer base Senior Secured 2nd Lien $485 15% 1.0 x 0.9 x Ratings agencies focused on EBITDA growth/margins and Total Debt $ $2,285 72% 4.8 x 4.3 x ability to generate sufficient free cash flow Total Equity $874 28% 1.8 x 1.7 x — Though recently improved, Silver’s EBITDA margins have historically lagged those of truckload peers Total Capitalization $ $3,159 100% 6.6 x 6.0 x — High investments in capital expenditures impacts free MS $529.1millionoftrailingtwelve cash flow projections estimate based on months EBITDA condition included in MS Commitment Letterrd (assumed to include IEL) — Cyclical concerns dated November 3 |
Proposed Morgan Stanley structure and pricing appears to be designed to achieve a mid to high single B corporate credit rating |
NNote: These include our preliminary observations, final observations to be contingent upon continued diligence of the company, MS capital structure and company financials |
Supporting Materials 44 |
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Highly Confidential |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis |
Comparable Peers (1) Company Asset Bloomberg Symbol Beta (2) Adj. Beta D/E (1-T) Assumptions JBHT 1.231 1.320 11.7% 61.5% Risk Premium (3) 5.50% WERN 1.235 1.240 0.7 60.8 Risk Free Rate (4) 4.55% HTLD 1.360 1.360 0.0 64.6 Tax Rate 38.8% |
KNX 1.510 1.510 0.0 65.0 |
XPRSA 0.813 1.430 116.8 65.0 |
CVTI 0.740 1.220 99.8 65.0 |
Mean 1.148 38.2% 63.7% Weighted Average Cost of Capital (6) Cost of Equity Calculation Pre-tax Cost of Debt Levered Cost of D/(D/E) Beta E/(D+E) Equity (5) 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% |
0.0% 1.148 100.0% 10.9% 0.0% 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 |
5.0 1.185 95.0 11.1% 5.0 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 |
Equity) |
10.0 1.226 90.0 11.3% 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 |
15.0 1.272 85.0 11.5% 15.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 |
20.0 1.324 80.0 11.8% 20.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.6 |
25.0 1.382 75.0 12.2% 25.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 |
30.0 1.449 70.0 12.5% 30.0 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 |
35.0 1.527 65.0 12.9% 35.0 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 |
40.0 1.617 60.0 13.4% Debt / (Debt + 40.0 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3 |
45.0 1.723 55.0 14.0% 45.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.2 |
50.0 1.851 50.0 14.7% 50.0 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 |
Source: Bloomberg and public filings (1) As of November 24, 2006. (2) Calculation to unlever beta: ßa = ße/(1+(1-T)*(D/E)). (3) Based on Ibbotson historical, empirical analysis. (4) Based on 10-Year Treasury yield as of November 24, 2006. (5) Cost of equity calculation: ke = Rf + ßa(1 + (1-T) (D/E)) (Rm — Rf) +Ps or Rf + ße (D/E)) (Rm — Rf) + Ps. Assume Ps = 0. (6) WACC calculation: kd (1-T) (D/(D+E)) + ke (E/(D+E)). |
Supporting Materials 45 |
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Highly Confidential |
Comparison of Selected Trucking Companies ($ in millions, except per share amounts) |
Enterprise Closing % of 52 Equ Value Multiples (2) Calendarized 5-Year ity Price Week Mar Enterprise EBITDA P/E Multiples (2) EPS LTM Margins Dividend ket Company 24-Nov-2006 High Cap Val LTM 2006 2007 2006 2007 CAGR (2) EBITDA EBIT Yield |
ue |
Silver at $29 Offer Price $ 29.00 86 % $ $2,207 $ $2,619 5.2 x 5.2 x 5.2 x 14.1 x 14.0 x 11.5 % 15.7 % 9.0 % 0.0 % Silver $ 27.61 82 % $ $2,099 $ $2,512 4.9 x 5.0 x 4.9 x 13.4 x 13.3 x 11.5 % 15.7 % 9.0 % 0.0 % Truckload |
Covenant Transport 12.50 77 175 336 6.1 7.1 6.1 NM 29.4 9.0 8.2 2.5 0.0 |
Heartland Express 16.13 84 1,585 1,263 8.0 7.3 7.0 17.7 17.5 10.0 27.9 19.9 0.5 |
Hunt (JB) Transport 21.69 84 3,249 3,611 6.5 6.4 6.0 14.8 13.6 15.0 16.7 11.4 1.5 |
Knight Transportation 18.28 83 1,600 1,582 9.0 8.6 7.3 21.5 18.3 20.0 27.0 17.9 0.4 |
Landstar 46.42 95 2,694 2,746 11.7 13.1 11.8 23.8 20.7 17.0 8.7 8.1 0.3 |
Quality Distribution 12.95 78 249 532 8.0 7.7 7.1 16.2 12.6 27.4 9.1 7.0 0.0 |
Celadon 19.82 88 477 487 9.5 8.8 7.1 19.3 15.7 33.3 10.5 7.7 0.0 |
Universal Truckload 25.48 70 411 397 10.8 9.9 8.5 19.1 16.1 14.6 5.9 5.2 0.0 |
U.S. Xpress Enterprises 18.11 65 280 610 5.3 5.1 4.5 13.1 10.8 26.0 8.3 4.0 0.0 |
Werner Enterprises 18.91 88 1,476 1,459 4.5 4.3 4.1 14.8 13.9 10.0 15.6 7.7 1.0 |
High 95 % $ $3,249 $ $3,611 11.7 x 13.1 x 11.8 x 23.8 x 29.4 x 33.3 % 27.9 % 19.9 % 1.5 % Mean 81 % $ $1,219 $ $1,302 7.9 x 7.8 x 7.0 x 17.8 x 16.9 x 18.2 % 13.8 % 9.1 % 0.4 % Median 84 % $ 976 $ 936 8.0 x 7.5 x 7.1 x 17.7 x 15.9 x 16.0 % 9.8 % 7.7 % 0.1 % Low 65 % $ 175 $ 336 4.5 x 4.3 x 4.1 x 13.1 x 10.8 x 9.0 % 5.9 % 2.5 % 0.0 % Less than Truckload |
Arkansas Best (3) $ 39.05 77 % $ 987 $ 866 4.4 x 3.9 x 3.7 x 10.1 x 9.9 x 10.0 % 10.6 % 7.1 % 1.5 % Central Freight Lines (3) 2.24 100 41 78 NM NA NA NA NA 0.0 (3.7) (8.6) 0.0 |
Con-Way (3) 47.93 78 2,409 2,512 4.5 5.0 5.2 11.8 11.4 12.5 12.8 9.4 0.8 |
Forward Air 34.31 79 1,062 998 11.9 11.5 10.5 21.3 19.1 12.5 24.1 21.5 0.8 |
Old Dominion 27.80 72 1,037 1,228 6.5 6.3 5.6 14.6 13.2 15.0 15.1 9.9 0.0 |
Saia (4) 27.35 77 413 477 4.5 5.3 4.7 14.9 11.6 18.2 8.7 4.6 0.0 |
YRC Worldwide 40.52 81 2,581 3,748 4.2 4.2 4.2 7.4 7.0 7.7 8.8 6.0 0.0 |
High 100 % $ $2,581 $ $3,748 11.9 x 11.5 x 10.5 x 21.3 x 19.1 x 18.2 % 24.1 % 21.5 % 1.5 % Mean 81 % $ $1,218 $ $1,415 6.0 x 6.0 x 5.6 x 13.3 x 12.0 x 10.8 % 10.9 % 7.1 % 0.5 % Median 78 % $ $1,037 $ 998 4.5 x 5.2 x 4.9 x 13.2 x 11.5 x 12.5 % 10.6 % 7.1 % 0.0 % Low 72 % $ 41 $ 78 4.2 x 3.9 x 3.7 x 7.4 x 7.0 x 0.0 % (3.7)% (8.6)% 0.0 % |
(1) Source: Latest publicly available financial statements. Equity Market Cap based on diluted shares outstanding. (2) Sources: LTM numbers are based upon the latest publicly available financial statements. Projected sales, EBITDA, EBIT, and EPS source: IBES median estimates. All projected estimates have been calendarized to December. |
Supporting Materials 46 |
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