In late May 2013, demonstrations began in Istanbul’s Taksim Gezi Park initially with respect to planned urban development, which were followed by wider protests, demonstrations and strikes in a number of cities.
Since these events, the Republic has experienced other forms of civil unrest, including public demonstrations and political protests. In 2015, there were thousands of anti-government demonstrations throughout Turkey, some of which were related to the ongoing conflict in Syria and some related to the conflict between the government and the Kurdistan Workers Party (“PKK”), a terrorist group. The level of conflict between the Republic and the PKK increased following the end of atwo-year cease-fire in July 2015. The violence continued to escalate, resulting in hundreds of civilian and military casualties, damage to infrastructure in the southeast region of Turkey, and political conflict with thepro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party. In September 2016, the Turkish government announced a reconstruction program and an investment incentives package for the country’s eastern and southeastern regions.
On July 15, 2016, a coup d’état was attempted in Turkey against state institutions, including, but not limited to the Government by a faction within the army that is linked to the terrorist group called Fethullah Terrorist Organization (“FETÖ”). The coup plotters attempted to overthrow the Government by seizing control of several key institutions and buildings in Ankara, Istanbul, and elsewhere, but failed to do so as there was strong public opposition. During the coup attempt, around 250 people were killed and more than 2,200 were injured while many government buildings, including the Turkish Parliament and the Presidential Palace, were damaged. On July 21, 2016, the Parliament approved the declaration of a three-month state of emergency, under Article 120 of the Constitution, in order to enable the authorities to take action against those responsible for the failed coup, which also resulted in the temporary suspension of the European Convention on Human Rights pursuant to Article 15 of the Convention. On August 7, 2016, several million people gathered in Istanbul for an anti-coup rally organized by the Turkish authorities. The President, Prime Minister and the two leaders of the opposition parties participated in the anti-coup rally. On each of October 3, 2016, January 3, 2017, April 18, 2017, July 17, 2017, October 17, 2017, January 18, 2018, and April 18, 2018, the Parliament approved an extension of the state of emergency, declared after the country’s failed military coup, by a further three months. The state of emergency has not been extended beyond July 18, 2018.
Turkish authorities are continuing to search for coup participants and others with alleged links to the FETÖ, and may detain, arrest, prosecute, fire or suspend more people. These actions have been the subject of criticism by the EU and others and may lead to strain in the Republic’s relationships with other countries, such as the tension with the United States associated with Turkish requests to extradite Fethullah Gülen.
Any further negative changes in the political environment of the Republic may affect the stability of the Turkish economy or its institutions. In addition, any instability in the Turkish economy and financial system may adversely affect the Republic’s credit quality. Turkey’s gross domestic product recorded two consecutive quarters (quarter over quarter) of slowing economic growth in 2018. The Turkish economy has contracted 3.0%year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, after growing by 1.8% in the third quarter (from 5.3% in the second quarter), according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Further, the Republic’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 decreased by 2.8%, as compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, while GDP in quarters 1 and 2 of 2019 decreased by 2.4% and 1.5%, respectively, against the same periods in the previous year.
The failure of the Turkish Government to implement its proposed economic and financial policies, including those set forth in the Republic’s Economic Reform Agenda and the 2020-2022 New Economy Program (see “Recent Developments and Summary” for further information), may also adversely affect the Turkish economy and the Republic’s credit quality.
Risks associated with significant seismic events.
A significant portion of the Republic’s population and most of its economic resources are located in a first degree earthquake risk zone and the Republic has experienced a large number of earthquakes in recent years, some quite significant in magnitude. For example, in October 2011, the eastern part of the country was struck by
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