| | The reserve balances, for both on and off-balance sheet credit exposures, are calculated applying the following formula: |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | a) | Exposure (E) = the total accounting balance (on and off-balance sheet) at the end of the period under review, segregated by country. |
| | | |
| | b) | Probabilities of Default (PD) = one-year probability of default applied to the portfolio in each country. Default rates are based on Bladex´s historical portfolio performance per rating category during an eight-year period, complemented by Standard&Poor’s probabilities of default for high risk cases, in view of the greater robustness of S&P data for such cases. |
| | | |
| | c) | Loss Given Default (LGD) = a factor of 45% is utilized, based on best practices in the banking industry. This factor applies to all countries, except those classified as higher risk, in which case management applies historical loss experience on a case-by-case basis. . |
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| | Bladex’s new methodology used to assess its generic reserve for credit losses is in line with FAS 5 because it provides a reasonable estimate of credit losses by calculating Probability of Default and Loss Given Default factors (FAS 5, par 8), supported by the Bank’s own historical experience (FAS 5, par. 23). According to best market practices, the new methodology utilizes one-year probabilities of default, which are updated annually in order to capture the Bank portfolios’ most recent performance. These Probabilities of Default, along with the Loss Given Default factor, are used to estimate the amount of losses incurred at the date of the financial statements on the basis of historical performance, but which are not yet identifiable pursuant to paragraph 8 of FAS 5. These amounts, therefore, represent loan net charge-offs that are likely to be realized in subsequent periods. |
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| | The Bank classifies the allowance for credit losses into two components: |
| | | |
| | 1) | Allowance for Loan Losses: |
2) Reserve for Losses on Off-Balance Sheet Credit Risk, such as confirmed letters of credit, stand-by letters of credit, guarantees and credit commitments:
(In US$ thousand) | | | December 31, | |
| | | | |
| | | 2005 | | | 2004 | | | 2003 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Balance at beginning of the year | | | 33,101 | | | 33,972 | | | 23,369 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Provision (reversal) for losses on off-balance sheet credit risk: | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Current year allocation | | | (210) | | | (871) | | | 10,603 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Effect of a change in the credit loss reserve methodology – 2005 | | | 15,991 | | | 0 | | | 0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 15,781 | | | (871) | | | 10,603 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Cumulative effect on prior years (to December 31, 2004) of a change in the credit loss reserve methodology | | | 3,204 | | | 0 | | | 0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Balance at end of the year | | | 52,086 | | | 33,101 | | | 33,972 | |
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The effect of the change in methodology for 2005 decreased net income by US$10.0 million, or US$0.26 per share (resulting from a loan loss reserve provision reversal of US$6.0 million, and an off-balance sheet reserve provision charge of US$16.0 million). In addition, the adjustment to apply retroactively the new methodology (to December 31, 2004) increased net income for 2005 by US$2.7 million (resulting from a loan loss reserve provision reversal of US$5.9 million and an off-balance sheet reserve provision charge of US$3.2 million). The pro-forma amounts shown on the income statement have been adjusted for the effect of retroactive application of the credit loss reserve, which could have been applied, had the new methodology been in effect.
The US$11.9 million overall positive impact on 2005 net income as it relates to the allowance for loan losses results from the use by the Bank of its own historical portfolio performance to determine the Probabilities of Default, whereas the previous methodology utilized only S&P Probabilities of Default, which are more severe, given the more selective and specialized nature of the Bank’s portfolio (short-term trade finance). To a lesser extent, the result was also affected by the fact that the current methodology utilizes one-year probabilities of default, given the short-term nature of the Bank’s portfolio (average maturity of 264 days), whereas the previous methodology utilized the probabilities of default of the remaining tenor of each loan, which resulted in more severe factors when exposures were longer term.
With regard to the reserve for losses on off-balance sheet credit risk, the US$19.2 million overall negative impact on 2005 net income resulted from the fact that the previous methodology considered a somewhat lower probability of default for off-balance sheet items, whereas the current methodology applies the same factor to both, on and off-balance sheet items. This is because the Bank’s data at this date is insufficient to allow for segregated probabilities of default on a robust basis. In this regard, we note that the Bank was forced in the aftermath of the Argentine crisis to reserve for both on and off-balance sheet items on an equal basis.
Reversals of Argentine Specific Provision for Credit Losses
The crisis in Argentina that began in December 2001, escalated into a full-scale political and economic crisis, which resulted in the default by the Argentine government on more than $50 billion of sovereign debt. Efforts by the Argentine government to contain the situation were followed by civil unrest and riots and a succession of government collapses and resignations. This economic crisis resulted in the imposition by the Argentine government of a number of measures, including a freeze on bank deposits, forced conversion of dollar-denominated bank deposits, a 70% currency devaluation, and the imposition of exchange controls. Because of the Argentine crisis, the Bank’s
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Argentine obligors faced repayment difficulties. At December 31, 2001, the Bank’s Argentine credit portfolio totaled US $1.1 billion. The Bank classified as impaired nearly its entire Argentine exposure due to these collectibility concerns and increased its allowance for credit losses during 2001 and 2002 by $77 million and $279 million, respectively, bringing the total credit reserves assigned to its Argentine portfolio to $380 million at December 31, 2002.
In the years following the crisis, Argentina continued to experience important problems and uncertainties, such as its defaults on debt with the World Bank and IMF, exchange controls, the need for important structural reforms (related to public security and the financial system), and political conflicts and domestic uncertainty. These factors forced the Bank to maintain strong provisioning coverage on its Argentine portfolio during these years.
Beginning in 2002, the Bank negotiated the restructuring of its Argentine portfolio and sold at a discount most of the positions that the Bank estimated had the lowest probability of collection. At the close of 2003, the Bank had restructured, sold or charged-off all of its non-performing exposures, with the exception of four clients for a total $33.8 million. During 2004 and 2005, the Bank was able to sell these four exposures. The restructuring process was made possible in part by the exception granted to Bladex by the Central Bank of Argentina regarding the foreign exchange controls imposed at the early stage of the crisis.
In 2003, the economic scenario in Argentina started to improve gradually. After an 11% negative economic growth in 2002, the country achieved a 9% GDP growth in 2003, and in each of the following two years. The country benefited from post-crisis catch-up effects and a declining interest rate environment, combined with increasing prices of its most important commodities, wheat and soy, driven by a strong demand from Asian markets, which had a positive effect on the country’s balance of payments and current accounts. During 2005, the country benefited from the sovereign foreign debt restructuring process, involving a deep descent in value and reduced interest payments, which eased the pressure on its balance of payments and consequently, increased the availability of hard currency for Argentine corporations to repay their obligations.
The following table shows Argentina’s key economic indicators for the years indicated, reflecting an improved economic scenario from 2003 through 2005:
Key Economic Indicators – Argentina | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 2000 | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Real GDP Growth (%) | | | -0.8% | | | -4.4% | | | -10.9% | | | 8.8% | | | 9.0% | | | 9.2% | |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | | | -2.4% | | | -3.2% | | | -1.5% | | | 0.5% | | | 2.6% | | | 1.8% | |
Public-sector Debt (% GDP) | | | 45.1% | | | 53.8% | | | 145.9% | | | 138.3% | | | 126.4% | | | 72.8% | |
Inflation (%) | | | -0.7% | | | -1.5% | | | 41.0% | | | 3.7% | | | 6.1% | | | 12.5% | |
Current Account (US$ millions) | | | -8,989 | | | -3,336 | | | 8,710 | | | 8,051 | | | 3,427 | | | 5,705 | |
Current Account (% GDP) | | | -3.2% | | | -1.2% | | | 8.5% | | | 6.2% | | | 2.2% | | | 3.1% | |
Forex Reserves (US$ millions) | | | 25,147 | | | 14,553 | | | 10,489 | | | 14,153 | | | 18,884 | | | 27,179 | |
Debt Service ratio (%) | | | 70.8% | | | 42.2% | | | 59.8% | | | 79.3% | | | 66.9% | | | 47.3% | |
All of these factors contributed to a gradual improvement and more stable economic situation, which in turn improved the financial flexibility of many clients, allowing them to comply with their contracted payments or even make prepayments, in view of the fact that the restructured loans and those that continued to perform as originally contracted carried substantially higher rates than
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prevailing rates at the time of prepayments. As a result, the Bank was able to decrease its impaired loan portfolio in Argentina by $294 million, $191 million, and $184 million, respectively, for the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, respectively, as well as to recover previously charged-off loans, resulting in reversals of loan loss provisions for $69 million, $105 million and $48 million, respectively. These reversals resulted from loan collections and sales that exceeded their respective net book values. At December 31, 2005, the Bank’s total Argentine restructured loan portfolio amounted to US$23 million and allocations from the allowance for loan losses amounted to $10 million.
The following table sets forth information regarding the Bank’s reversals (provisions) of allowance for loan losses during the years indicated:
Reversals (Provisions) of Allowance for Loan Losses | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
(US$millions) | | 2005 | | 2004 | | 2003 | |
| | | | | | | |
Argentine reversals related to sale of loans | | | 2.9 | | | 6.3 | | | 62.8 | |
Argentine reversals related to credit restructurings and collections, and changes in expected loss levels | | | 45.1 | | | 92.5 | | | 5.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Argentine Specific Reserves Reversals - Total | | | 47.9 | | | 98.8 | | | 67.8 | |
Brazil Specific Reserves Reversals (Provisions) | | | 13.2 | | | (2.2) | | | 2.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Total Specific Reserves Reversals | | | 61.1 | | | 96.6 | | | 70.2 | |
Generic Reserves Reversals (Provisions) - due to changes in credit portfolio composition and risk levels | | | (15.5) | | | 8.4 | | | (2.6) | |
Generic Reserves Reversals - due to change in credit loss reserve methodology | | | 6.0 | | | — | | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Total Generic Reserves Reversals (Provisions) | | | (9.6) | | | 8.4 | | | (2.6) | |
Recoveries - Argentine credits | | | 0.3 | | | 6.4 | | | 1.1 | |
Recoveries - Other credits | | | 2.3 | | | — | | | 0.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Total Recoveries | | | 2.6 | | | 6.4 | | | 2.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Total Reversals of Provisions for Loan Losses | | | 54.2 | | | 111.4 | | | 69.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
1. | 2005 |
| |
| The Bank’s US$54 million reversal of provision for loan losses during 2005 was mainly due to the net effect of: |
| |
| • | a US$3 million reversal related to the sale of an Argentine loan with a nominal value of US$11 million; |
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| • | a US$45 million reversal related to the decrease in Argentine restructured loans, reflecting payments and prepayments received during the year; |
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| • | a US$13 million reversal related to the decrease in Brazilian restructured loans, reflecting payments and prepayments received during the year; |
| | |
| • | a US$3 million reversal due to recoveries from loans charged-off in previous years; |
| | |
| • | US$16 million in generic provision charges, due to increased loan exposure; and |
| | |
| • | a US$6 million reversal due to the change in the credit loss reserve methodology during 2005. |
| | |
2. | 2004 |
| | |
| The US$111 million provision reversal during 2004 was mainly due to reversals of provisions related to Argentina, including: |
| | |
| • | US$92 million in payments and prepayments received on restructured loans, |
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| • | US$6 million in loan recoveries, and |
| | |
| • | US$6 million reversal in specific reserves related to sales of loans totaling US$23 million. |
| | |
| In addition, during 2004, the Bank decreased US$8 million in generic reserves assigned to certain countries mainly due to improved risk levels, and reversed US$2 million in specific reserves related to a non-accruing loan in Brazil due to payments received. These reversals were partially offset by a US$4 million increase in specific reserves assigned to a loan in Brazil placed on non-accrual status during the fourth quarter of 2004. |
| | |
3. | 2003 |
| | |
| The Bank’s US$70 million reversal of provision for loan losses during 2003 was mainly due to the net effect of: |
| | |
| • | US$63 million reversal in specific reserves related to sales of Argentine loans totaling US$214 million, |
| | |
| • | US$5 million reversal in specific reserves related to payments and prepayments received on restructured Argentine loans, |
| | |
| • | US$2 million reversal in specific reserves related to a non-accruing loan in Brazil due to payments received, |
| | |
| • | US$3 million in generic provision charges, due to changes in loan portfolio and risk levels, |
| | |
| • | US$1 million reversal due to recoveries from Argentine loans charged-off in previous years; and |
| | |
| • | US$1 million reversal due to recoveries from other loans charged-off in previous years. |
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