Exhibit 99.2

Global Loss Triangles Supplement
December 31, 2003
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Investor Contact Helen M. Wilson Phone: (441) 299-9283 Fax: (441) 292-8675 email: investorrelations@ace.bm | | This report is for informational purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with documents filed by ACE Limited with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. |
| Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: |
| |
| | Any forward-looking statements made in this document reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. |
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| | For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by the frequency of unpredictable catastrophic events, actual loss experience which differs from the Company’s assumptions, uncertainties in the reserving or settlement process, new theories of liability, judicial and legislative developments, litigation tactics, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable, credit developments among reinsurers, pricing and policy term trends and actual market conditions and developments, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003, the Company’s quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and in the Company’s earnings press release, which are available on the Company’s website. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. |
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Global Loss Triangles Supplement Table of Contents |
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I. | | Overview | | |
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| | - Executive Summary | | 2 |
| | - Reconciliation of Global Loss Triangles with GAAP December 31, 2003 Balances | | 3 |
| | - Reserve Evaluation Considerations | | 4 |
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II. | | Insurance - North American | | |
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| | - Highlights - Insurance North American Segment | | 5 |
| | - Workers Compensation | | 6 |
| | - General Liability | | 7 |
| | - Other Casualty | | 8 |
| | - Non-Casualty | | 9 |
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III. | | Insurance - Overseas General | | |
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| | - Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment | | 10 |
| | - Casualty | | 11 |
| | - Non-Casualty | | 12 |
| | - Personal Accident | | 13 |
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IV. | | Global Reinsurance (Global Re) | | |
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| | - Highlights - Global Re Segment | | 14 |
| | - Casualty | | 15 |
| | - Non-Casualty | | 16 |
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V. | | Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2003 10-K Disclosure | | 17 |
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VI. | | Glossary | | 19 |
Page 1
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Overview Executive Summary |
The Global Loss Triangles (GLT) supplement is comprised of the following information:
• | For direct business — accident year triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2003. |
• | For reinsurance business — treaty year triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid ALAE and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2003. |
• | Net earned premium for each of the ten accident/treaty years ending December 31, 2003. |
The triangle data are provided in groupings under three of ACE’s four SEC reporting segments:
• | Insurance North American Segment |
| • | Workers Compensation (WC) |
• | Insurance Overseas General Segment |
• | Global Reinsurance Segment |
Furthermore, the GLT supplement also contains the following:
• | A reconciliation of the GLT reserve balances with ACE’s published GAAP reserve balance ending December 31, 2003. |
• | A discussion of some factors to consider when analyzing loss reserve triangles. |
• | Commentary highlighting aspects of the GLT triangles and their interpretations. |
• | Relevant discussion from our 2003 10-K addressing ACE’s reserving process. |
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Overview Reconciliation of GLT with GAAP December 31, 2003 Balances |
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The net reserves (case plus IBNR) associated with the GLT can be reconciled back to ACE Limited’s December 31, 2003 closing GAAP P&C net reserve balance as follows:
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| | ($millions)
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GAAP Net P&C Reserve Balance at December 31, 2003 | | $ | 13,963 |
Less: World Trade Center Reserve1 | | | 323 |
Financial Solutions2 | | | 2,288 |
ACE Cap Re and ACE Guarantee Re3 | | | 472 |
Bad Debt | | | 558 |
Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ULAE) | | | 567 |
Excluded Large Loss4 | | | 78 |
AGM Excluded Reserves5 | | | 145 |
Commutations6 | | | 299 |
Other7 | | | 489 |
Plus: Recoveries from retroactive reinsurance contracts8 | | | 2,642 |
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GLT Net Reserve Balance at December 31, 2003 | | $ | 11,386 |
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The GLT Net Reserve Balance can be split as follows: | | | |
Accident Years 1994 through 2003 | | $ | 7,445 |
Accident Years 1993 and prior | | | 3,941 |
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| | $ | 11,386 |
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The triangles are constructed to exclude the effects of shifting exchange rates. Loss and ALAE data denominated in foreign currencies are converted to US dollars at December 2003 exchange rates.
As indicated above, certain blocks of loss and ALAE reserves were excluded for the following reasons:
1. The paid and reported losses for WTC have been removed from the triangles to avoid projection distortions. The $323 million reserve balance for WTC is consistent with prior disclosures of $650 million net loss less $327 million paid as of December 31, 2003.
2. With respect to the Financial Solutions business, traditional actuarial methods such as loss development triangles are inappropriate for evaluating reserves. The book is made up of a relatively small number of large heterogeneous accounts, each account having its own unique terms. As a result, each account is reviewed and reserved for individually.
3. ACE sold a majority interest in ACE Capital Re and ACE Guaranty Re via an IPO in early 2004. As a result, on a go-forward basis, these reserves are no longer on ACE’s balance sheet. Therefore, these losses were excluded from the GLT.
4. To avoid projection distortion, an integrated occurrence from a single insured has been removed from the 1995 and 1996 accident years of the Insurance North American General Liability triangle. The paid amounts as of December 31, 2003 are $77 million in 1995 and $1 million in 1996, while the reported amounts are $80 million and $76 million, respectively.
5. Due to the complexity of allocating its net paid and reported data from treaty year to accident year, the ACE Global Markets Property, Energy, and Personal Accident book was excluded from the GLT. However, the GL, Professional Liability, Aviation, and Marine books from accident year 1997 onwards have been included in the Casualty triangles.
6. The increases in loss reserves relating to a 2003 commutation have been excluded to avoid distorting the loss history.
7. Includes blocks of reserves associated with prior years, or representing reserves for which loss development methods are not appropriate or other items.
8. The Global Loss Triangles are presented gross of retroactive reinsurance, which is consistent with the US statutory Schedule P treatment. In general, these treaties tend to distort the net loss history and prevent a useful analysis. ACE does not utilize this type of reinsurance in the normal course of business. The retroactive treaties we have on our books relate to acquisitions made by ACE, and the majority of the expected recoveries relate to accident years 1993 and prior. As we have previously disclosed, $2.375 billion (or 90%) of the total retroactive recoveries relate to the NICO Brandywine cover, which was purchased at the time of ACE’s acquisition of the CIGNA P&C business. The remaining amount of $267 million relates to the ACE Westchester acquisition.
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Overview Reserve Evaluation Considerations |
We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who track insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. This is accomplished not only by employing a variety of actuarial methods, but also by applying judgment to help quantify the impact of these variables.
Considerable caution should be used when attempting to analyze reserve adequacy based on aggregated triangles. It is rare that the data is so consistent, homogeneous, and static that a valid analysis is possible without exercising substantial judgement. Results can be distorted by both industry-wide and company-specific factors. Below is a non-exhaustive list of possible pitfalls.
Many methods for judging reserve adequacy (e.g. Stanard-Buhlmann, Least Squares) assume that expected loss ratios (ELRs) do not change over time. In fact, ELRs can change substantially from year to year due to many reasons (e.g. change in rates, change in mix of business, etc.). Recently, a hard market has produced higher rates and more restrictive terms and conditions for most lines, which should result in lower ELRs. If these rate changes are not taken into consideration, indicated reserves will most likely be overstated, or stated another way, misleading reserve deficiencies may be indicated. While we consider ACE’s actual rate change information to be proprietary, there are a number of public sources that can be used as a proxy to adjust loss ratios to a more appropriate level. These sources include, but are not limited to, the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) Commercial Insurance Lines survey, Lloyd’s of London Premium Rating Index, and Tillinghast-Towers Perrin Directors & Officers Liability Survey.
• | Changes in inflation rates distort any reserve analysis based on loss triangles. If expected future inflation is lower (higher) than historical inflation rates, needed reserves may be overstated (understated) as a result, and appropriate adjustments should be made. If inflation rates are stable, no adjustment may be required. |
• | Many other changes and distortions (e.g. change in reinsurance structure, large losses, change in settlement rates, etc.) can skew the results of a reserve analysis based on aggregated triangles. These distortions are not always easily corrected for, but we have attempted to identify and quantify them wherever possible. |
• | Loss development methods can be particularly volatile at the first and second evaluation points, especially for longer-tailed lines. In those situations, we would recommend relying on an expected loss technique. One expected loss technique not addressed in Feldblum’s paper is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, which can be modified to incorporate information on changing premium rates in an analysis of reserve adequacy. |
There are a number of valid prospective tests of reserve adequacy that can be performed based on consolidated triangles. One excellent source of information on the various methods is Completing and Using Schedule P by Sholom Feldblum(1) . It is strongly recommended that anyone attempting to analyze reserves presented in loss triangles be familiar with the methods detailed in the section entitled “Loss Reserve Adequacy Testing – Prospective Valuation.”
(1) Publicly available on the Casualty Actuarial Society’s web site at the following address http://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/02fforum/02ff353.pdf
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Highlights - Insurance North American Segment |
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The triangles are provided by GAAP reporting segment (Insurance North American, Insurance Overseas General, and Global Re) which is consistent with how ACE manages its business on an aggregate basis.
Insurance North American Segment
The Insurance North American segment covers business written by ACE USA (including business written in other ACE entities but managed by ACE USA), ACE Westchester Specialty, ACE Canada, and ACE Bermuda. A significant portion of ACE Bermuda’s exposure is from the US, though a portion does reside in Europe.
There are three important points with regards to the “Prior” line. First, the “Prior” line shown here is gross of retroactive reinsurance (NICO treaties). Second, it would be incorrect to apply a single loss development factor to the “Prior” line, as it does not represent a single accident year but the total activity in accident years prior to 1993. Third, nearly all of ACE’s Asbestos and Environmental exposure is contained in the “Prior” line of the General Liability triangles. Development factors derived from loss triangles are inappropriate for analysis of this exposure. We will be completing our annual Asbestos review during the 4th quarter.
Insurance North American – Workers Compensation
The US Statutory Schedule P filings for Workers Compensation (WC) only show a portion of ACE’s total WC business. At year end 2000, there was an internal reinsurance transaction between the ACE American Pool and another ACE entity whereby 100% of the outstanding liabilities for the 2000 and prior accident years and 100% of any future development (net of third party reinsurance) was ceded outside the ACE American Pool. The WC triangle contains all the original WC business written by ACE’s US based direct operations.
ACE USA’s WC experience includes both middle market and Fortune 1000 business. The middle market business was predominantly guaranteed cost, while the majority of the Fortune 1000 business varies among retro, guaranteed cost, high deductible, and fronted captive business.
Contained in the triangles are a few instances of modest negative case reserves (calculated by taking the difference between the reported and paid at a given development age for a particular accident year). This is typically due to either salvage and subrogation or timing differences associated primarily with ceded reinsurance. For Workers Compensation and other Casualty lines, it will usually be the latter. For Non-Casualty lines, it tends to be the former. In our view, these negative case reserves will not significantly distort an analysis nor detract from the usefulness of the information provided.
Insurance North American – General Liability
The triangles consist of Primary General Liability, Excess Liability, Professional Liability, and Products Liability. The Primary General Liability and US Excess Liability are written on an occurrence basis and represent the largest part, while the Professional Liability and Bermuda Excess Liability are written on a claims made basis. Over the past three years, ACE USA has grown its General Liability book, while Excess Liability business has been de-emphasized by ACE Bermuda. In addition, given the recent hard market in Professional Liability, each of the four entities has grown its Professional Liability book over the past two years.
Furthermore, the underwriting cycle has been particularly pronounced for Professional Liability, with a soft market throughout the late 1990’s and into 2001, followed by a rapid hardening in the last three years. These changes in price adequacy should be incorporated into any analysis of reserve levels.
ACE Bermuda writes on a “claims first reported” form which means that coverage is triggered when news of a potential claim is received, potentially well in advance of a claim being filed. In addition, Bermuda typically writes at high attachment points, particularly on its Excess Liability book.
Finally, in ACE’s US statutory Schedule P, Warranty business appears in Other Liability – Occurrence. However, Warranty claims are settled quickly, and case reserves are generally not established. This makes it very different from the other business included in the Other Liability line. Warranty products are multi-year contracts, and rather than establish IBNR reserves for future claims, premium earnings are deferred over the life of the contracts and an unearned premium reserve is held which is reviewed and tested for adequacy (this is consistent with industry practice). Therefore, we have removed data associated with Warranty business from the triangles.
Insurance North American – Other Casualty
These triangles consist of the non-WC and non-GL long tailed business. The lines included are Auto Liability, Commercial Multi-Peril, Political Risk, Marine, and Aviation Liability. The last two lines are the main components of the Special Liability line in ACE’s US Schedule P.
Insurance North American – Non-Casualty
The vast majority of business in this triangle consists of Property exposures. In addition, there is Auto Physical Damage, Fidelity and Surety, and the “Other” line from ACE’s US annual statement, which includes Personal Accident exposure.
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles North American Workers Compensation As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
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Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 0 | | 351,364 | | 593,933 | | 814,491 | | 999,642 | | 1,158,392 | | 1,306,608 | | 1,403,592 | | 1,504,176 | | 1,590,801 |
1994 | | 50,429 | | 112,195 | | 142,954 | | 171,602 | | 187,551 | | 199,655 | | 211,640 | | 219,136 | | 225,839 | | 229,592 |
1995 | | 91,647 | | 195,392 | | 235,901 | | 272,906 | | 287,348 | | 300,623 | | 312,405 | | 314,270 | | 313,106 | | |
1996 | | 45,152 | | 91,676 | | 114,852 | | 152,208 | | 187,477 | | 209,828 | | 231,149 | | 247,534 | | | | |
1997 | | 57,279 | | 108,517 | | 147,755 | | 170,829 | | 187,468 | | 201,703 | | 210,947 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 67,048 | | 146,370 | | 182,164 | | 209,321 | | 228,520 | | 243,969 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 37,499 | | 82,442 | | 122,567 | | 153,706 | | 180,550 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 28,321 | | 48,850 | | 107,490 | | 154,389 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 15,649 | | 41,446 | | 59,041 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 27,778 | | 76,748 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 38,981 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 1,618,828 | | 1,816,513 | | 1,903,648 | | 2,037,010 | | 2,134,655 | | 2,240,538 | | 2,271,844 | | 2,298,927 | | 2,453,737 | | 2,518,407 |
1994 | | 181,623 | | 232,111 | | 240,686 | | 253,630 | | 264,479 | | 274,548 | | 280,358 | | 282,723 | | 287,745 | | 295,173 |
1995 | | 176,643 | | 263,761 | | 290,930 | | 319,976 | | 338,017 | | 344,411 | | 354,482 | | 356,036 | | 352,118 | | |
1996 | | 90,200 | | 129,279 | | 141,897 | | 157,752 | | 181,429 | | 201,350 | | 238,322 | | 245,561 | | | | |
1997 | | 126,339 | | 180,864 | | 207,311 | | 220,188 | | 231,718 | | 242,951 | | 245,856 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 147,610 | | 218,692 | | 239,049 | | 264,940 | | 277,404 | | 281,471 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 92,555 | | 128,585 | | 160,598 | | 202,697 | | 216,983 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 38,790 | | 80,989 | | 134,396 | | 177,630 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 29,121 | | 61,226 | | 70,100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 55,662 | | 123,752 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 100,170 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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Net Earned Premium |
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Accident Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 582,023 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 500,005 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 440,059 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 409,510 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 435,467 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 332,714 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 209,661 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 272,925 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 381,693 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 577,172 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles North American General Liability As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
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Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 0 | | 653,408 | | 1,072,425 | | 1,790,859 | | 2,426,197 | | 3,233,168 | | 3,623,830 | | 3,909,749 | | 4,159,684 | | 4,482,369 |
1994 | | 15,889 | | 68,462 | | 112,534 | | 150,137 | | 185,344 | | 210,369 | | 307,156 | | 321,577 | | 320,977 | | 338,813 |
1995 | | 24,568 | | 79,377 | | 108,468 | | 133,560 | | 163,086 | | 187,675 | | 202,406 | | 209,229 | | 204,732 | | |
1996 | | 10,454 | | 44,945 | | 86,823 | | 132,920 | | 173,980 | | 194,203 | | 213,667 | | 230,746 | | | | |
1997 | | 7,350 | | 45,879 | | 79,515 | | 106,989 | | 136,500 | | 167,576 | | 193,440 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 13,033 | | 50,479 | | 131,617 | | 182,215 | | 173,541 | | 218,726 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 29,667 | | 127,970 | | 194,244 | | 224,959 | | 272,293 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 54,768 | | 110,707 | | 135,974 | | 235,368 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 26,271 | | 119,977 | | 135,215 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 32,049 | | 111,345 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 41,961 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 1,439,736 | | 2,035,359 | | 2,517,203 | | 2,958,507 | | 3,360,151 | | 3,750,645 | | 4,145,831 | | 4,386,677 | | 4,437,902 | | 4,797,422 |
1994 | | 59,893 | | 157,653 | | 200,235 | | 218,675 | | 274,806 | | 282,089 | | 348,420 | | 346,432 | | 347,623 | | 353,638 |
1995 | | 74,947 | | 137,493 | | 167,707 | | 183,789 | | 214,394 | | 252,888 | | 263,980 | | 257,843 | | 260,235 | | |
1996 | | 48,300 | | 86,372 | | 126,176 | | 159,159 | | 199,513 | | 224,255 | | 240,770 | | 244,586 | | | | |
1997 | | 51,029 | | 130,588 | | 170,585 | | 185,709 | | 219,265 | | 225,803 | | 217,928 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 42,704 | | 115,317 | | 184,411 | | 245,956 | | 235,333 | | 235,066 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 63,820 | | 174,795 | | 248,361 | | 289,522 | | 305,985 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 88,211 | | 197,294 | | 300,351 | | 350,974 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 65,999 | | 202,873 | | 253,219 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 84,694 | | 144,019 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 76,531 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 897,979 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 630,995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 612,624 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 529,832 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 459,322 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 393,026 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 427,879 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 572,303 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 658,235 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 1,429,871 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles North American Other Casualty As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
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Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 0 | | 572,130 | | 955,296 | | 1,233,504 | | 1,407,088 | | 1,603,891 | | 1,729,762 | | 1,849,405 | | 1,932,962 | | 1,998,860 |
1994 | | 299,002 | | 561,615 | | 711,582 | | 813,753 | | 873,395 | | 912,053 | | 922,547 | | 933,059 | | 953,655 | | 958,586 |
1995 | | 213,711 | | 425,508 | | 514,287 | | 579,689 | | 603,185 | | 622,877 | | 635,935 | | 642,833 | | 645,399 | | |
1996 | | 265,305 | | 515,565 | | 603,365 | | 654,811 | | 686,702 | | 713,644 | | 722,534 | | 728,116 | | | | |
1997 | | 192,385 | | 333,731 | | 401,466 | | 437,957 | | 462,389 | | 475,603 | | 491,726 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 220,526 | | 383,000 | | 471,039 | | 516,125 | | 545,458 | | 558,519 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 170,013 | | 281,063 | | 346,545 | | 384,889 | | 403,668 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 206,774 | | 345,447 | | 386,000 | | 423,460 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 100,088 | | 195,778 | | 247,647 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 107,520 | | 179,196 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 124,688 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 1,279,577 | | 1,530,579 | | 1,658,054 | | 1,733,434 | | 1,761,569 | | 1,936,289 | | 2,047,066 | | 2,149,945 | | 2,316,796 | | 2,296,754 |
1994 | | 625,666 | | 797,049 | | 860,797 | | 919,252 | | 938,786 | | 950,242 | | 945,736 | | 949,875 | | 963,641 | | 965,733 |
1995 | | 430,516 | | 560,552 | | 598,962 | | 634,192 | | 633,698 | | 637,833 | | 640,727 | | 651,059 | | 653,097 | | |
1996 | | 479,662 | | 627,318 | | 696,174 | | 706,581 | | 717,698 | | 732,235 | | 732,726 | | 737,526 | | | | |
1997 | | 336,063 | | 425,376 | | 473,438 | | 486,607 | | 495,667 | | 505,478 | | 514,862 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 423,404 | | 489,847 | | 525,020 | | 560,979 | | 567,403 | | 583,952 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 309,333 | | 344,940 | | 394,496 | | 433,660 | | 442,838 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 322,300 | | 404,754 | | 417,369 | | 454,322 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 150,648 | | 239,718 | | 286,009 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 185,977 | | 243,770 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 195,731 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 1,189,587 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 994,785 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 906,133 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 737,334 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 598,251 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 918,732 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 556,550 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 503,634 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 572,310 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 849,132 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles North American Non-Casualty As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 0 | | 34,706 | | 110,598 | | 130,561 | | 136,927 | | 124,323 | | 136,663 | | 143,385 | | 145,778 | | 146,935 |
1994 | | 248,333 | | 313,409 | | 326,691 | | 342,134 | | 358,921 | | 369,946 | | 372,498 | | 367,750 | | 368,736 | | 370,318 |
1995 | | 143,155 | | 232,571 | | 247,050 | | 257,792 | | 263,763 | | 264,772 | | 266,930 | | 265,537 | | 272,501 | | |
1996 | | 139,883 | | 221,963 | | 242,138 | | 258,683 | | 257,819 | | 259,294 | | 261,244 | | 262,729 | | | | |
1997 | | 132,477 | | 207,166 | | 238,631 | | 241,457 | | 246,674 | | 255,088 | | 254,382 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 192,158 | | 319,577 | | 345,684 | | 357,287 | | 363,770 | | 368,112 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 184,455 | | 266,046 | | 280,699 | | 286,111 | | 285,781 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 264,630 | | 379,125 | | 387,552 | | 395,738 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 205,082 | | 278,237 | | 272,233 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 301,636 | | 401,283 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 381,183 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 123,417 | | 138,821 | | 184,978 | | 197,289 | | 218,539 | | 199,652 | | 194,558 | | 214,533 | | 149,816 | | 169,684 |
1994 | | 320,277 | | 351,422 | | 360,287 | | 343,115 | | 356,444 | | 386,630 | | 387,019 | | 373,636 | | 373,560 | | 374,801 |
1995 | | 204,832 | | 240,477 | | 252,831 | | 261,567 | | 267,942 | | 265,333 | | 270,435 | | 266,173 | | 272,766 | | |
1996 | | 269,402 | | 267,945 | | 272,438 | | 282,791 | | 275,446 | | 268,948 | | 272,770 | | 270,877 | | | | |
1997 | | 219,093 | | 250,922 | | 265,935 | | 251,001 | | 250,442 | | 257,606 | | 251,286 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 335,191 | | 348,832 | | 353,924 | | 359,752 | | 368,872 | | 370,907 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 241,386 | | 299,699 | | 291,892 | | 299,966 | | 286,359 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 397,144 | | 437,345 | | 437,399 | | 426,026 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 217,600 | | 313,520 | | 302,005 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 330,510 | | 407,764 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 466,750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Accident Year
| | |
| NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 540,964 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 423,857 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 507,081 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 525,072 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 519,608 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 503,846 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 661,112 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 623,325 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 895,477 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 880,353 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment |
Insurance Overseas General Segment
The Insurance Overseas General segment includes business written by ACE International and ACE Global Markets (AGM). ACE International has four regions, with the majority of the business located in Europe. AGM business is written in the Lloyd’s market and is mostly US business. An important reserving consideration is that ACE analyzes its AGM business on a gross underwriting year basis rather than an accident year basis. In order to provide net data on an accident year basis it has been necessary to make a number of assumptions. As a result, any purely mechanical analysis may produce artificially high or low estimates, and some degree of judgment should be used in selecting factors and in the selection of an overall development pattern.
Due to the complexity of allocating its net paid and reported data from treaty year to accident year, the ACE Global Markets Property, Energy, and Personal Accident book was excluded from the GLT. However, the GL, Professional Liability, Aviation, and Marine books from accident year 1997 onwards have been included in the Casualty triangles.
Insurance Overseas General – Casualty
The majority of the exposures consist of General Liability and Professional Liability from both ACE International and AGM. As noted in the Insurance North American discussion, there was a hardening of the Professional Liability market in the last three years, and any analysis should reflect these changes in price adequacy. Also included in this triangle are relatively smaller amounts of Auto Liability, Employers Liability, Marine, Aviation, and Political Risk.
Both occurrence and claims made coverages have been written in relatively equal proportions over the last ten years. As with Insurance North American, we did not see any significant distortion in combining occurrence and claims made data.
Insurance Overseas General – Non-Casualty
These triangles consist entirely of Property and Energy losses. As mentioned above, the AGM Non-Casualty book was excluded.
Insurance Overseas General – Personal Accident
The Personal Accident business shown here is written entirely by ACE International. As mentioned above, the AGM Personal Accident book was excluded. This is mostly traditional accident business with no health insurance component.
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Overseas General Casualty As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 0 | | 90,945 | | 154,309 | | 199,532 | | 239,140 | | 263,587 | | 284,459 | | 296,977 | | 307,583 | | 320,689 |
1994 | | 137,352 | | 198,858 | | 216,565 | | 229,263 | | 241,202 | | 253,765 | | 257,478 | | 260,811 | | 264,669 | | 266,239 |
1995 | | 129,489 | | 196,387 | | 217,246 | | 228,419 | | 242,516 | | 249,767 | | 255,643 | | 258,371 | | 258,992 | | |
1996 | | 129,426 | | 200,407 | | 219,333 | | 240,300 | | 247,510 | | 253,955 | | 263,502 | | 265,965 | | | | |
1997 | | 238,524 | | 385,022 | | 460,868 | | 512,340 | | 572,056 | | 614,946 | | 636,420 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 260,489 | | 404,837 | | 474,053 | | 541,816 | | 582,699 | | 606,176 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 235,665 | | 398,403 | | 479,872 | | 539,374 | | 571,754 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 273,676 | | 490,143 | | 598,685 | | 664,683 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 245,968 | | 444,559 | | 562,590 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 196,408 | | 387,063 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 187,656 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
|
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
|
Prior | | 257,307 | | 294,110 | | 343,649 | | 361,156 | | 356,673 | | 368,653 | | 373,809 | | 393,148 | | 383,345 | | 387,820 |
1994 | | 202,176 | | 242,704 | | 251,563 | | 258,081 | | 262,336 | | 270,878 | | 270,642 | | 273,108 | | 274,429 | | 280,563 |
1995 | | 194,187 | | 240,297 | | 244,444 | | 250,302 | | 263,734 | | 265,441 | | 266,706 | | 264,595 | | 264,773 | | |
1996 | | 196,217 | | 240,261 | | 248,739 | | 261,114 | | 263,683 | | 272,033 | | 270,977 | | 272,760 | | | | |
1997 | | 375,389 | | 543,458 | | 592,337 | | 673,764 | | 732,493 | | 806,155 | | 829,559 | | | | | | |
1998 | | 386,312 | | 541,004 | | 604,645 | | 623,351 | | 657,126 | | 727,873 | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 373,586 | | 552,511 | | 610,078 | | 640,499 | | 594,671 | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 422,597 | | 707,354 | | 784,711 | | 863,381 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 417,793 | | 571,844 | | 693,158 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 377,835 | | 625,698 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 350,332 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | |
| NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 489,276 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 487,876 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 503,078 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 1,011,026 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 949,935 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 909,774 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 984,206 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 1,133,599 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 1,394,816 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 1,558,108 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Overseas General Non-Casualty As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 0 | | 35,188 | | 49,312 | | 60,322 | | 68,065 | | 78,500 | | 84,443 | | 107,216 | | 115,386 | | 126,950 | | |
1994 | | 79,760 | | 134,601 | | 146,434 | | 150,516 | | 152,704 | | 150,942 | | 151,831 | | 152,662 | | 152,848 | | 152,922 | | |
1995 | | 63,695 | | 133,741 | | 148,376 | | 152,640 | | 153,815 | | 154,181 | | 158,501 | | 159,375 | | 159,338 | | | | |
1996 | | 61,384 | | 124,564 | | 137,604 | | 141,216 | | 142,896 | | 144,280 | | 145,688 | | 145,620 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 72,908 | | 137,354 | | 148,790 | | 154,002 | | 155,634 | | 156,983 | | 158,753 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 131,631 | | 253,937 | | 275,903 | | 285,635 | | 298,277 | | 299,644 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 93,231 | | 237,337 | | 279,231 | | 291,658 | | 296,180 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 117,848 | | 263,766 | | 315,259 | | 337,542 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 123,634 | | 282,660 | | 318,492 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 137,715 | | 256,995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 97,947 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 81,960 | | 84,447 | | 83,250 | | 83,250 | | 82,393 | | 87,699 | | 91,177 | | 112,629 | | 120,280 | | 130,233 | | |
1994 | | 146,863 | | 155,232 | | 157,204 | | 156,610 | | 161,290 | | 158,362 | | 158,622 | | 158,787 | | 158,034 | | 157,404 | | |
1995 | | 150,748 | | 163,579 | | 163,995 | | 163,122 | | 165,234 | | 159,617 | | 160,727 | | 160,571 | | 159,863 | | | | |
1996 | | 129,567 | | 148,984 | | 149,445 | | 148,343 | | 148,018 | | 148,175 | | 147,757 | | 147,427 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 152,165 | | 169,871 | | 164,496 | | 161,456 | | 161,902 | | 162,183 | | 162,745 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 262,160 | | 306,709 | | 305,723 | | 301,980 | | 302,229 | | 303,005 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 219,153 | | 305,691 | | 302,912 | | 302,794 | | 304,434 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 329,455 | | 365,203 | | 359,352 | | 358,614 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 343,379 | | 370,644 | | 351,863 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 288,213 | | 337,305 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 298,823 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 311,690 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 330,275 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 328,952 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 339,137 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 343,842 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 349,188 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 366,502 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 393,521 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 564,219 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 766,792 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Overseas General Personal Accident As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 0 | | 32,199 | | 49,908 | | 57,969 | | 63,257 | | 66,643 | | 69,971 | | 73,138 | | 74,675 | | 76,139 | | |
1994 | | 64,926 | | 117,823 | | 131,415 | | 138,594 | | 141,786 | | 143,063 | | 144,618 | | 145,183 | | 145,609 | | 146,114 | | |
1995 | | 68,570 | | 119,971 | | 135,366 | | 142,455 | | 145,966 | | 147,158 | | 148,891 | | 150,300 | | 150,736 | | | | |
1996 | | 70,208 | | 123,561 | | 137,074 | | 142,311 | | 145,613 | | 147,949 | | 149,450 | | 150,113 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 75,076 | | 132,394 | | 151,804 | | 158,583 | | 163,437 | | 165,939 | | 166,991 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 95,775 | | 158,647 | | 175,646 | | 185,212 | | 188,138 | | 190,489 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 84,692 | | 144,889 | | 164,248 | | 172,636 | | 176,806 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 87,906 | | 152,079 | | 172,020 | | 180,790 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 106,043 | | 190,160 | | 219,610 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 109,417 | | 196,566 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 115,310 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
Accident Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 51,053 | | 60,942 | | 68,260 | | 72,321 | | 73,683 | | 75,886 | | 75,795 | | 76,351 | | 77,441 | | 77,289 | | |
1994 | | 99,489 | | 134,547 | | 143,029 | | 146,362 | | 146,485 | | 146,847 | | 146,757 | | 146,340 | | 146,584 | | 146,760 | | |
1995 | | 106,550 | | 142,792 | | 146,761 | | 149,477 | | 150,387 | | 150,607 | | 151,220 | | 152,193 | | 151,771 | | | | |
1996 | | 104,592 | | 144,197 | | 149,223 | | 150,844 | | 150,742 | | 151,747 | | 152,259 | | 152,519 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 118,741 | | 157,035 | | 166,955 | | 167,289 | | 168,806 | | 169,626 | | 169,362 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 142,040 | | 184,166 | | 190,322 | | 192,182 | | 192,294 | | 193,379 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 130,243 | | 172,115 | | 179,481 | | 182,450 | | 183,525 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 130,362 | | 185,169 | | 188,726 | | 192,767 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 168,980 | | 227,519 | | 251,666 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 172,798 | | 259,285 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 192,671 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 377,689 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 403,833 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 426,573 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 534,800 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 474,808 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 487,356 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 486,930 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 558,951 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 662,451 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 718,979 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Highlights - Global Re Segment |
Global Re Segment
The Global Re segment contains the business written by Tempest USA, Tempest Bermuda, and Tempest Europe. Tempest USA writes a North American treaty reinsurance book covering nearly all lines and is sourced through reinsurance brokers. Tempest Bermuda was founded in 1993 and writes catastrophe reinsurance, primarily Property coverages. Tempest Europe writes a worldwide portfolio of Marine, Aviation, Property and Casualty business.
Unlike the rest of the triangles, the data for Global Re is presented on a treaty year basis, not on an accident year basis. A feature of treaty year data is that individual treaties can incept at any time during a given treaty year, and therefore, a full treaty year can typically take up to 36 months to fully earn. Since reserves should only be established for the earned portion of the 2003 treaty year, care should be taken not to fully develop the 2003 treaty year and include the unearned portion of that treaty year. Hence, any application of a pure loss development factor method for treaty year 2003 (paid or reported multiplied by a benchmark LDF) will overstate the liability as of December 31, 2003. As an alternative, either an expected loss and/or Bornhuetter-Ferguson approach will help mitigate this issue since the earned premium represents ACE’s exposure as of December 31, 2003.
Global Re Casualty
Given the short history of Global Re in Casualty lines of business, there are only four treaty years of loss and ALAE experience to date, and given the long-tail nature of the business, it is difficult to perform any meaningful analysis, especially with loss development methods. Other methods, such as a pure Expected Loss Ratio or Bornhuetter-Ferguson, would be more appropriate. A good source for loss development factors would be the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA).
Global Re Non-Casualty
Prior to policy year 2001, all of the loss experience relates to Tempest Bermuda and is therefore all Property Catastrophe related. In the policy years subsequent to 2001, the Property Per Risk and Energy books have grown substantially.
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Global Re Casualty As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treaty Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | |
1994 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | |
1995 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | |
1996 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 946 | | 4,895 | | 10,424 | | 13,761 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 1,495 | | 9,793 | | 23,691 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 1,555 | | 14,977 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 4,268 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
Treaty Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | |
1994 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | |
1995 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | |
1996 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 1,669 | | 10,779 | | 16,660 | | 20,026 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 7,523 | | 21,837 | | 38,016 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 9,626 | | 37,259 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 19,537 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treaty Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 30,541 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 137,059 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 347,174 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 213,361 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Global Re Non-Casualty As of 12/31/03 In $US thousands |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treaty Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | |
1994 | | 11,358 | | 38,060 | | 49,938 | | 53,891 | | 57,788 | | 59,687 | | 59,737 | | 60,197 | | 60,547 | | 61,990 | | |
1995 | | 18,023 | | 48,441 | | 58,325 | | 66,612 | | 68,306 | | 68,831 | | 69,283 | | 69,284 | | 69,314 | | | | |
1996 | | 15,181 | | 24,799 | | 25,310 | | 25,645 | | 25,641 | | 25,836 | | 25,844 | | 25,843 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 6,022 | | 10,869 | | 13,676 | | 17,322 | | 17,602 | | 17,628 | | 17,564 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 25,621 | | 68,895 | | 90,040 | | 90,845 | | 90,920 | | 89,042 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 22,024 | | 52,487 | | 45,975 | | 47,792 | | 47,990 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 8,966 | | 33,923 | | 46,723 | | 51,113 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 26,801 | | 41,179 | | 55,746 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 26,844 | | 75,099 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 30,370 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
Treaty Year
| | Age in months
| | |
| 12
| | 24
| | 36
| | 48
| | 60
| | 72
| | 84
| | 96
| | 108
| | 120
| | |
Prior | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | |
1994 | | 34,731 | | 54,823 | | 57,830 | | 58,752 | | 61,376 | | 61,619 | | 61,580 | | 61,693 | | 61,041 | | 62,556 | | |
1995 | | 58,012 | | 58,919 | | 63,040 | | 68,332 | | 69,121 | | 69,117 | | 69,436 | | 69,389 | | 69,366 | | | | |
1996 | | 25,171 | | 26,308 | | 25,881 | | 25,926 | | 25,767 | | 25,952 | | 26,065 | | 25,978 | | | | | | |
1997 | | 11,283 | | 15,542 | | 18,346 | | 18,548 | | 18,635 | | 18,291 | | 18,259 | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 33,449 | | 85,331 | | 93,505 | | 93,042 | | 90,241 | | 89,721 | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 25,514 | | 48,867 | | 50,205 | | 48,423 | | 48,134 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 15,768 | | 53,070 | | 52,579 | | 50,447 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 46,220 | | 49,387 | | 56,943 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 72,615 | | 116,337 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 61,749 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Treaty Year
| | NEP
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | 142,609 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | 162,158 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | 127,165 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | 118,834 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | 155,954 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | 152,583 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | 227,346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 339,418 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | 573,065 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 465,203 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2003 10-K Disclosure |
As an insurance and reinsurance company, we are required, under GAAP, to establish loss reserves for the estimated unpaid portion of the ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements with our insured and reinsured customers. These reserves include estimates for both claims that have been reported and those that have been incurred but not reported (IBNR), and include estimates of expenses associated with processing and settling these claims. At December 31, 2003, the unpaid losses and loss expense reserve was $27.1 billion gross of third party reinsurance. Our P&C loss reserves are not discounted. The process of establishing reserves for property and casualty (P&C) claims can be complex and is subject to considerable variability as it requires the use of informed estimates and judgments. These estimates and judgments are based on numerous factors, and may be revised as additional experience and other data become available and are reviewed, as new or improved methodologies are developed or as current laws change.
We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who track insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. The potential for variation in loss reserves is impacted by numerous factors, which we explain below.
We estimate loss reserves for all insurance and reinsurance business we write. In most cases, we do not have all the necessary information to determine the ultimate settlement value for a claim at the time we are required to accrue for the loss. As a result, historical experience and other statistical information are used to estimate the ultimate cost of the loss, depending on the type of business. To determine carried reserves for a particular line of business, we may perform one or more reserving methods to estimate ultimate losses and loss expenses and use the results to select a single point estimate. These methods may include, but are not necessarily limited to, extrapolations of our historical reported and paid loss data, application of industry loss development patterns to our reported or paid losses, expected loss ratios developed by management, or historical industry loss ratios.
Underlying judgments and assumptions that may be incorporated into these actuarial methods include, but are not necessarily limited to, adjustments to historical data used in models to exclude aberrations in claims data such as catastrophes that are typically analyzed separately, application of tail factors used to project ultimate claims from historical loss experience when there are several data points to use, adjustments to actuarial models and related data for known business changes, such as changes in claims covered under insurance contracts, and the effect of recent or pending litigation on future claim settlements. For each of our lines of business, management, in conjunction with internal actuaries, develop their “best estimate” of ultimate liabilities, which they believe provide a reasonable estimate of the required reserve. We utilize one set of assumptions in determining a single point estimate. We do not calculate a range of loss reserve estimates.
The following is a discussion of specific reserving considerations by type of claim:
Short-Tail Business, such as Property Coverages
Short-tail business describes lines of business for which losses are usually known and paid shortly after the loss actually occurs. This would include, for example, most property, personal accident, aviation hull and automobile physical damage policies that are written.
Long-Tail Business, such as Casualty Coverages
Long-tail business describes lines of business for which specific losses may not be known for some period and losses take much longer to emerge. This includes most casualty lines such as general liability, directors and officers liability (D&O) and workers compensation. Within our general insurance business, long-tail casualty business has been increasing and for the year ended December 31, 2003 comprises approximately 43 percent of net premiums earned. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty and volatility of long-tail business. Among these are:
• | Given the recent expansion of this business, historical experience is often too immature to place reliance upon for reserving purposes. Instead, particularly for newer lines of business, reserve methods are based on industry loss ratios or development patterns that reflect the nature and coverage of the underwritten business and its future development. For new or growing lines of business, actual loss experience is apt to differ from industry loss statistics that are based on averages as well as loss experience of previous underwriting years; |
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2003 10-K Disclosure |
• | The inherent uncertainty of the length of paid and reporting development patterns; |
• | The possibility of future litigation, legislative or judicial change that might impact future loss experience relative to prior loss experience relied upon in loss reserve analyses. |
We establish reserves for the estimated unpaid ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements. These reserves take into account estimates both for claims that have been reported and for IBNR, and include estimates of expenses associated with processing and settling claims.
For each of our lines of business, management, in conjunction with internal actuaries, develop a “best estimate” of ultimate liabilities, which they believe provide a reasonable estimate of the required reserve. The following is a discussion of our reserve- setting procedures by segment:
Insurance – North American and Insurance – Overseas General
Our internal actuaries perform standard actuarial methodologies including paid and incurred loss development and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) incurred and paid loss methods. The BF method is a blend of an expected loss ratio method and utilization of a pattern consistent with that of a loss development technique. For those lines of business where there is enough historical experience, in general, all four methods are utilized and an ultimate indication is estimated based on the outcomes of these techniques as well as any other methods used for the given line of business (e.g. counts and averages approaches). More reliance would be placed on loss development techniques for the older years as these are more mature and would have more consistent trends. For the more recent years, especially for long-tailed lines of business, a BF method would be given more weight since a loss development method could significantly understate or overstate liabilities. In all cases, additional diagnostics are performed to help in the determination of the most appropriate estimate.
These diagnostics include a review of paid loss to incurred loss ratios, claims disposal rates and implied IBNR to case outstanding ratios. In situations where a new line of business is being written or a new product line being sold, an expected loss ratio method would be more appropriate as our own historical loss development information is limited. In these cases, industry benchmark loss ratios and development patterns are utilized to estimate ultimate indications. Given the high severity, low frequency nature of ACE Bermuda’s book of business, the actuarial techniques utilized in calculating IBNR is more heavily weighted to an expected loss ratio/BF methodology. There is intense monitoring by claim of potential case reserve development in this business and the interaction between the claims department and actuarial function is a crucial element in the success of this operating unit.
Global Reinsurance
ACE Global Re’s book of business consists of a significant amount of property catastrophe exposure. For this line of business, we develop initial loss estimates for large individual catastrophes based on market share information of potential exposures and the output from catastrophe computer simulation models. Market share analysis uses cedant and industry information at geographic level (e.g. country) and line of business. A range of industry losses is then passed through the relevant market shares to provide a range of losses for the company’s exposures, allowing for program attachment points and the appropriate shares of the indemnity limits involved. When actual case reserves from the ceding companies are received, the initial loss estimates are progressively modified to reflect the actual emerging loss experience. Since the subject business is short-tail, most of our historical losses are now reserved on this basis.
For the casualty lines of business, similar actuarial techniques are utilized as described above for the Insurance – North American and Insurance – Overseas General segments. However, due to the immaturity of this book of business, more weight is given to the BF method of projections. There is considerable uncertainty around the expected projections for these lines and any favorable trends that may be seen in the development could easily be reversed.
The interested reader is referred to ACE’s 2003 Form 10-K for additional information on the reserving process.
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 | | ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Glossary |
Accident year: Relates to all losses occurring within a given twelve-month period, regardless of when the loss was reported or booked.
Bornhuetter-Ferguson method: Estimates unpaid (unreported) losses for a given accident/treaty year based on an expected ultimate and the percentage of losses currently unpaid (unreported).
Claims made basis: An insurance form where the date the loss is reported to the insurer is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the loss occurred.
Integrated occurrence: Two or more separate occurrences defined in a policy as a single occurrence. For example, a number of individual lawsuits arising over several years from a single faulty product might be defined as one occurrence under policy language.
Occurrence basis: An insurance form where the date the loss occurred is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the claim is reported to the insurer.
Retroactive reinsurance: An arrangement whereby a reinsurer assumes liability incurred as a result of past events (i.e. a loss portfolio transfer).
Treaty year: Relates to all losses associated with policies that incepted within a given twelve-month period.