Chubb Limited (CB) 8-KRegulation FD Disclosure
Filed: 29 Sep 05, 12:00am
Exhibit 99.2
Investor Contact
Helen M. Wilson Phone: (441) 299-9283 Fax: (441) 292-8675 | This report is for informational purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with documents filed by ACE Limited with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K/A and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. | |
email: investorrelations@ace.bm |
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: | |
Any forward-looking statements made in this document reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. | ||
For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by the frequency of unpredictable catastrophic events, actual loss experience which differs from the Company’s assumptions, uncertainties in the reserving or settlement process, new theories of liability, judicial, legislative, regulatory and other governmental developments, litigation tactics and developments, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable, credit developments among reinsurers, pricing and policy term trends and actual market conditions and developments, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2004, the Company’s quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and 10-Q/A, and in the Company’s earnings press releases, which are available on the Company’s website. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Global Loss Triangles Supplement Table of Contents | |
Page | ||||
I. | Overview | |||
- Executive Summary | 2 | |||
- Reconciliation of Global Loss Triangles with GAAP December 31, 2004 Balances | 3 | |||
- Reconciliation to Previous Release | 4 | |||
- Reserve Evaluation Considerations | 14 | |||
II. | Insurance - North American | |||
- Highlights - Insurance North American Segment | 15 | |||
- Workers Compensation | 16 | |||
- General Liability | 17 | |||
- Other Casualty | 18 | |||
- Non-Casualty | 19 | |||
III. | Insurance - Overseas General | |||
- Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment | 20 | |||
- Casualty | 21 | |||
- Non-Casualty | 22 | |||
- Personal Accident | 23 | |||
IV. | Global Reinsurance (Global Re) | |||
- Highlights - Global Re Segment | 24 | |||
- Property | 25 | |||
- Non-Property | 26 | |||
V. | Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2004 10-K/A Disclosure | 27 | ||
VI. | Glossary | 29 |
Contents
Page 1 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Overview Executive Summary | |
This document forms the supplement to ACE’s release of its Global Loss Triangles (GLT) as at December 31, 2004. Last year we released the GLT for the first time with the purpose of providing the reader with the opportunity to use their own judgment with respect to certain areas of our reserves and also a greater insight into ACE’s business and overall reserve balance. As discussed later in this document, our reserving approach is a detailed ground-up process reflecting the scope and diversity of the products written by our various operations. In addition, the market has seen rapid changes in both rates and terms and conditions over the last few years. It is therefore difficult to prepare an aggregate disclosure that captures all of these aspects. However, we believe that with the requisite care and attention to analysis, the disclosure can be used to provide the reader with insight about ACE’s reserve position. To assist the reader with their analysis, we have provided guidance where possible in the document on key assumptions that should be considered when performing an analysis.
In compiling this year’s release we have followed essentially the same format as released last year but we have also made a number of changes to the data. These changes reflect actions from the recent restatement, re-classification of certain items to be excluded (most notably premiums, and to a much lesser extent losses), foreign exchange adjustments and considerable enhancements to the compilation process. Notable examples of the enhancements include the extensive work undertaken to improve the accident year resolution of the ACE Global Markets data and an expansion of the compilation process to include a greater volume of information within this release, most notably for the Overseas General segment. We believe that this year’s release is an improvement over last year’s release and that the changes are consistent with our commitment to leading our peer group in the pursuit of more transparent loss reserve disclosures
The GLT supplement is comprised of the following information:
• | For direct business – accident year (AY) triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2004. |
• | For reinsurance business – treaty year (TY) triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid ALAE and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2004. |
• | Net earned premium for each of the ten accident/treaty years ending December 31, 2004. |
The triangle data are provided in groupings under three of ACE’s four SEC reporting segments:
• | Insurance North American Segment |
• | Workers Compensation (WC) |
• | General Liability (GL) |
• | Other Casualty |
• | Non-Casualty |
• | Insurance Overseas General Segment |
• | Casualty |
• | Non-Casualty |
• | Personal Accident |
• | Global Reinsurance Segment |
• | Casualty |
• | Non-Casualty |
Furthermore, the GLT supplement also contains the following:
• | A reconciliation of the GLT reserve balances with ACE’s published GAAP reserve balance ending December 31, 2004. |
• | A reconciliation of the current data to that contained in the previous release. |
• | A discussion of some factors to consider when analyzing loss reserve triangles. |
• | Commentary highlighting aspects of the GLT triangles and their interpretations. |
• | Relevant discussion from our 2004 10-K/A addressing ACE’s reserving process. |
Overview
Page 2 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Overview Reconciliation of GLT with GAAP December 31, 2004 Balances | |
The net reserves (case plus IBNR) associated with the GLT can be reconciled back to ACE Limited’s December 31, 2004 closing GAAP P&C net reserve balance as follows:
($millions) | |||
GAAP Net P&C Reserve Balance at December 31, 20041 | $ | 17,517 | |
Less: World Trade Center Reserve2 | 272 | ||
Financial Solutions3 | 2,121 | ||
Bad Debt | 619 | ||
Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ULAE) | 635 | ||
Excluded Large Loss4 | 85 | ||
Commutation5 | 237 | ||
Other6 | 401 | ||
Plus: Recoveries from retroactive reinsurance contracts 7 | 2,302 | ||
GLT Net Reserve Balance at December 31, 2004 | $ | 15,449 | |
The GLT Net Reserve Balance can be split as follows: | |||
Accident Years 1995 through 2004 | $ | 11,002 | |
Accident Years 1994 and prior | 4,447 | ||
$ | 15,449 | ||
The triangles are constructed to exclude the effects of shifting exchange rates. Loss and ALAE data denominated in foreign currencies are converted to US dollars at December 2004 exchange rates.
1. | As restated per the announcement of July 21, 2005. The primary purpose of the restatement was to correct accounting treatment for eight transactions in the “non-traditional” or “finite risk” category. This amount is net of third party reinsurance recoveries of $14 billion. |
As indicated above, certain blocks of loss and ALAE reserves were excluded for the following reasons:
2. | The paid and reported losses for WTC have been removed from the triangles to avoid projection distortions. The $272 million reserve balance for WTC is consistent with prior disclosures of $650 million net loss less $378 million paid as of December 31, 2004. |
3. | With respect to the Financial Solutions business, traditional actuarial methods such as loss development triangles are inappropriate for evaluating reserves. The book is made up of a relatively small number of large heterogeneous accounts, each account having its own unique terms. As a result, each account is reviewed and reserved for individually. |
4. | To avoid projection distortion, an integrated occurrence from a single insured has been removed from the 1995 and 1996 accident years of the Insurance North American General Liability triangle. The paid amounts as of December 31, 2004 are $81 million in 1995 and $3 million in 1996, while the reported amounts are $91 million and $78 million, respectively. |
5. | The increases in loss reserves relating to a 2003 commutation have been excluded to avoid distorting the loss history. |
6. | Includes blocks of reserves associated with prior years, or representing reserves for which loss development methods are not appropriate or other items. |
7. | The Global Loss Triangles are presented gross of retroactive reinsurance, which is consistent with the US statutory Schedule P treatment. In general, these treaties tend to distort the net loss history and prevent a useful analysis. ACE does not utilize this type of reinsurance in the normal course of business. The retroactive treaties we have on our books relate to acquisitions made by ACE, and the majority of the expected recoveries relate to accident years 1994 and prior. As we have previously disclosed, $2.097 billion (or 91%) of the total retroactive recoveries relate to the NICO Brandywine cover, which was purchased at the time of ACE’s acquisition of the CIGNA P&C business. The remaining amount of $205 million relates to the ACE Westchester acquisition. |
Reconciliation
Page 3 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Overview Reconciliation to Previous Release | |
Having established a process for the release of the initial GLTs, we reviewed this process in detail as a prelude to the current release. Through this review we identified a number of opportunities to improve the quality and scope of the GLT.
The main enhancement has been on the Overseas General segment where we had previously excluded large pieces of ACE Global Markets (AGM) business due to the inability to extract complete historical information in the desired form. We now include all relevant business from AGM and additionally have enhanced the process we use to translate Gross Year of Account (YOA) data to Net Accident Year data. For this release we have been able to accurately allocate 80% of claims arising from Year of Account 2000 and onwards, using the actual date of loss. In addition on the largest claims (representing around 20% of claims) we have been able to perform a net-down that accurately reflects the impact of the reinsurance program relevant to each claim.
On the following pages we summarize the historical data changes by segment and accident/treaty year at December 31, 2003 for paid loss, reported loss & earned premium. We also attribute the overall movement to each source as listed below.
Insurance North American
A comparison of this year’s GLT with the previous release shows paid losses increased by under 1%, reported losses increased by 1% and premiums decreased by 4% across accident years 1995-2003 combined.
• | Restatement/Reclassification |
Due to the recent restatement, the premium and losses no longer reflect the cessions for certain finite contracts and reclassification of certain premium and loss amounts for business excluded from the GLT disclosure.
• | Currency |
Effect of restating historical values at December 2004 exchange rates
Insurance Overseas General
A comparison of this year’s GLT with the previous release shows paid losses increased by 42%, reported losses increased by 38% and premiums increased by 43% across accident years 1995-2003 combined. The majority of these changes relate to previously excluded classes being included for this release.
• | AGM Methodology |
As described above a more detailed process was used this year to derive net AY data
• | Restatement/Reclassification |
Due to the recent restatement, the premium and losses no longer reflect the cessions for certain finite contracts and the inclusion of the following classes;
AGM - Personal Accident, Energy, Property (All Years) and Casualty (AY 96 & prior)
ACE International - some discontinued lines and smaller countries.
• | Currency |
Effect of restating historical values at December 2004 exchange rates
Global Re
A comparison of this year’s GLT with the previous release shows paid losses increased by 2% and reported losses increased by 1% over treaty years 1995-2003 combined. The comparison of the earned premium figures will show large increases as treaty years naturally advance towards being fully earned. Therefore we have not shown this comparison within the reconciliation schedules. On a minor note, we have changed the labeling of the two Global Re classes this year, but the composition of each has stayed the same.
• | Currency |
Effect of restating historical values at December 2004 exchange rates
• | Miscellaneous |
For future releases, we will continue to review the content and segmentation of the triangles to ensure that they provide a useful representation of our evolving business profile.
Reconciliation to Previous
Page 4 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American Workers Compensation Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 313,106 | 4,715 | 277 | 318,098 | |||||
1996 | 247,534 | 27 | 360 | 247,922 | |||||
1997 | 210,947 | (2,842 | ) | 415 | 208,520 | ||||
1998 | 243,969 | 11,736 | 385 | 256,089 | |||||
1999 | 180,550 | (1,937 | ) | 448 | 179,062 | ||||
2000 | 154,389 | (42,198 | ) | 344 | 112,536 | ||||
2001 | 59,041 | (0 | ) | 203 | 59,244 | ||||
2002 | 76,748 | 0 | 55 | 76,804 | |||||
2003 | 38,981 | 106 | 4 | 39,091 | |||||
Total | 1,525,266 | (30,392 | ) | 2,492 | 1,497,366 | ||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 352,118 | 4,714 | 297 | 357,130 | |||||
1996 | 245,561 | 28 | 467 | 246,056 | |||||
1997 | 245,856 | 4,250 | 429 | 250,535 | |||||
1998 | 281,471 | 43,954 | 623 | 326,048 | |||||
1999 | 216,983 | 3,943 | 608 | 221,534 | |||||
2000 | 177,630 | (42,198 | ) | 905 | 136,337 | ||||
2001 | 70,100 | 12 | 597 | 70,709 | |||||
2002 | 123,752 | 0 | 410 | 124,163 | |||||
2003 | 100,170 | 103 | 214 | 100,487 | |||||
Total | 1,813,642 | 14,806 | 4,551 | 1,832,999 | |||||
Net Earned Premium | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 500,005 | 0 | 362 | 500,367 | |||||
1996 | 440,059 | 0 | 335 | 440,394 | |||||
1997 | 409,510 | 8,248 | 321 | 418,079 | |||||
1998 | 435,467 | 15,000 | 401 | 450,868 | |||||
1999 | 332,714 | 14,786 | 452 | 347,951 | |||||
2000 | 209,661 | 802 | 522 | 210,985 | |||||
2001 | 272,925 | (1,193 | ) | 759 | 272,491 | ||||
2002 | 381,693 | (6,315 | ) | 1,005 | 376,383 | ||||
2003 | 577,172 | 37,958 | 1,341 | 616,471 | |||||
Total | 3,559,206 | 69,286 | 5,499 | 3,633,991 | |||||
NA WC(R)
Page 5 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American General Liability Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 204,732 | 901 | 683 | 206,316 | |||||
1996 | 230,746 | (48 | ) | 1,603 | 232,302 | ||||
1997 | 193,440 | (924 | ) | 1,439 | 193,956 | ||||
1998 | 218,726 | 1,415 | 982 | 221,123 | |||||
1999 | 272,293 | 4,618 | 1,210 | 278,121 | |||||
2000 | 235,368 | 96 | 856 | 236,320 | |||||
2001 | 135,215 | 38 | 879 | 136,132 | |||||
2002 | 111,345 | (178 | ) | 325 | 111,492 | ||||
2003 | 41,961 | (0 | ) | 142 | 42,103 | ||||
Total | 1,643,827 | 5,919 | 8,119 | 1,657,865 | |||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 260,235 | 899 | 706 | 261,841 | |||||
1996 | 244,586 | (47 | ) | 1,821 | 246,359 | ||||
1997 | 217,928 | 13 | 1,491 | 219,432 | |||||
1998 | 235,066 | 3,778 | 1,284 | 240,127 | |||||
1999 | 305,985 | 9,535 | 1,824 | 317,345 | |||||
2000 | 350,974 | (403 | ) | 1,213 | 351,784 | ||||
2001 | 253,219 | (921 | ) | 1,842 | 254,139 | ||||
2002 | 144,019 | (1,232 | ) | 959 | 143,747 | ||||
2003 | 76,531 | (350 | ) | 614 | 76,795 | ||||
Total | 2,088,543 | 11,272 | 11,754 | 2,111,569 | |||||
Net Earned Premium | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 630,995 | (1,125 | ) | 2,190 | 632,061 | ||||
1996 | 612,624 | (2,028 | ) | 2,091 | 612,687 | ||||
1997 | 529,832 | 2,245 | 2,158 | 534,235 | |||||
1998 | 459,322 | 11,738 | 2,096 | 473,156 | |||||
1999 | 393,026 | 72,504 | 1,883 | 467,414 | |||||
2000 | 427,879 | (40,288 | ) | 2,314 | 389,906 | ||||
2001 | 572,303 | (267,724 | ) | 2,781 | 307,359 | ||||
2002 | 658,235 | 29,990 | 3,995 | 692,220 | |||||
2003 | 1,429,871 | (163,796 | ) | 6,103 | 1,272,178 | ||||
Total | 5,714,087 | (358,482 | ) | 25,611 | 5,381,215 | ||||
NA GL (R)
Page 6 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American Other Casualty Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 645,399 | 5 | 313 | 645,716 | |||||
1996 | 728,116 | 1 | 248 | 728,364 | |||||
1997 | 491,726 | (2 | ) | 600 | 492,325 | ||||
1998 | 558,519 | 36,542 | 763 | 595,824 | |||||
1999 | 403,668 | 20,139 | 429 | 424,236 | |||||
2000 | 423,460 | 4 | 471 | 423,935 | |||||
2001 | 247,647 | 1,440 | 561 | 249,648 | |||||
2002 | 179,196 | (989 | ) | 456 | 178,663 | ||||
2003 | 124,688 | (2,762 | ) | 238 | 122,164 | ||||
Total | 3,802,419 | 54,378 | 4,078 | 3,860,875 | |||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 653,097 | 4 | 320 | 653,421 | |||||
1996 | 737,526 | 2 | 247 | 737,775 | |||||
1997 | 514,862 | 6,862 | 606 | 522,330 | |||||
1998 | 583,952 | 59,142 | 769 | 643,863 | |||||
1999 | 442,838 | 13,306 | 453 | 456,596 | |||||
2000 | 454,322 | 22 | 536 | 454,880 | |||||
2001 | 286,009 | 1,351 | 1,072 | 288,432 | |||||
2002 | 243,770 | (1,466 | ) | 726 | 243,031 | ||||
2003 | 195,731 | (5,812 | ) | 748 | 190,667 | ||||
Total | 4,112,108 | 73,410 | 5,477 | 4,190,995 | |||||
Net Earned Premium | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 994,785 | (3,182 | ) | 365 | 991,968 | ||||
1996 | 906,133 | (947 | ) | 445 | 905,631 | ||||
1997 | 737,334 | 11,702 | 633 | 749,668 | |||||
1998 | 598,251 | 22,339 | 606 | 621,196 | |||||
1999 | 918,732 | (345,970 | ) | 542 | 573,303 | ||||
2000 | 556,550 | �� | (80,163 | ) | 750 | 477,137 | |||
2001 | 503,634 | (95,110 | ) | 890 | 409,414 | ||||
2002 | 572,310 | (23,989 | ) | 1,537 | 549,858 | ||||
2003 | 849,132 | (185,041 | ) | 2,476 | 666,567 | ||||
Total | 6,636,860 | (700,361 | ) | 8,244 | 5,944,743 | ||||
NA Other Cas (R)
Page 7 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American Non-Casualty Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 272,501 | (766 | ) | 2,312 | 274,047 | ||||
1996 | 262,729 | (2,382 | ) | 2,016 | 262,363 | ||||
1997 | 254,382 | (2,573 | ) | 2,101 | 253,911 | ||||
1998 | 368,112 | (11,136 | ) | 6,498 | 363,474 | ||||
1999 | 285,781 | 822 | 1,531 | 288,134 | |||||
2000 | 395,738 | (5,644 | ) | 3,180 | 393,274 | ||||
2001 | 272,233 | (6,983 | ) | 2,392 | 267,642 | ||||
2002 | 401,283 | (3,511 | ) | 1,187 | 398,959 | ||||
2003 | 381,183 | (652 | ) | 1,040 | 381,571 | ||||
Total | 2,893,943 | (32,824 | ) | 22,257 | 2,883,375 | ||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 272,766 | (773 | ) | 2,312 | 274,305 | ||||
1996 | 270,877 | (2,380 | ) | 2,016 | 270,513 | ||||
1997 | 251,286 | (513 | ) | 2,060 | 252,833 | ||||
1998 | 370,907 | (11,763 | ) | 6,697 | 365,842 | ||||
1999 | 286,359 | 4,441 | 1,483 | 292,283 | |||||
2000 | 426,026 | (5,507 | ) | 3,221 | 423,740 | ||||
2001 | 302,005 | (9,406 | ) | 2,781 | 295,381 | ||||
2002 | 407,764 | (1,241 | ) | 1,246 | 407,769 | ||||
2003 | 466,750 | 1,008 | 1,795 | 469,553 | |||||
Total | 3,054,741 | (26,133 | ) | 23,611 | 3,052,219 | ||||
Net Earned Premium | |||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 423,857 | 5,106 | 5,252 | 434,215 | |||||
1996 | 507,081 | (1,662 | ) | 5,381 | 510,800 | ||||
1997 | 525,072 | 1,159 | 3,859 | 530,090 | |||||
1998 | 519,608 | 13,843 | 2,530 | 535,981 | |||||
1999 | 503,846 | 11,476 | 2,022 | 517,344 | |||||
2000 | 661,112 | 5,399 | 2,305 | 668,816 | |||||
2001 | 623,325 | (9,383 | ) | 4,371 | 618,312 | ||||
2002 | 895,477 | (95,375 | ) | 8,941 | 809,043 | ||||
2003 | 880,353 | 191,704 | 8,668 | 1,080,725 | |||||
Total | 5,539,731 | 122,267 | 43,329 | 5,705,326 | |||||
NA NC (R)
Page 8 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance Overseas General Casualty Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||||
1995 | 258,992 | 0 | 322,660 | 20,655 | 602,307 | |||||||
1996 | 265,965 | 0 | 400,203 | 21,058 | 687,227 | |||||||
1997 | 636,420 | (26,905 | ) | 2,412 | 24,613 | 636,540 | ||||||
1998 | 606,176 | 12,846 | (602 | ) | 22,980 | 641,400 | ||||||
1999 | 571,754 | 5,365 | 734 | 25,811 | 603,663 | |||||||
2000 | 664,683 | 58,567 | 6,566 | 31,050 | 760,866 | |||||||
2001 | 562,590 | (26,086 | ) | 9,509 | 25,213 | 571,227 | ||||||
2002 | 387,063 | (5,207 | ) | (3,222 | ) | 17,189 | 395,823 | |||||
2003 | 187,656 | (22,224 | ) | (2,644 | ) | 8,626 | 171,413 | |||||
Total | 4,141,298 | (3,644 | ) | 735,617 | 197,194 | 5,070,466 | ||||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||||
1995 | 264,773 | 0 | 341,827 | 21,271 | 627,871 | |||||||
1996 | 272,760 | 0 | 434,698 | 21,719 | 729,177 | |||||||
1997 | 829,559 | (160,987 | ) | 2,258 | 28,426 | 699,256 | ||||||
1998 | 727,873 | (31,450 | ) | (631 | ) | 25,848 | 721,639 | |||||
1999 | 594,671 | 79,295 | 1,544 | 29,340 | 704,850 | |||||||
2000 | 863,381 | 26,592 | 40,717 | 40,713 | 971,402 | |||||||
2001 | 693,158 | (34,104 | ) | 136,057 | 35,269 | 830,381 | ||||||
2002 | 625,698 | (48,495 | ) | 14,622 | 29,026 | 620,851 | ||||||
2003 | 350,332 | (18,428 | ) | (5,958 | ) | 18,138 | 344,084 | |||||
Total | 5,222,205 | (187,578 | ) | 965,133 | 249,750 | 6,249,511 | ||||||
Net Earned Premium | ||||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||||
1995 | 487,876 | 0 | 939,113 | 39,528 | 1,466,517 | |||||||
1996 | 503,078 | 0 | 921,288 | 40,627 | 1,464,992 | |||||||
1997 | 1,011,026 | 173,061 | 2,203 | 44,732 | 1,231,022 | |||||||
1998 | 949,935 | 122,471 | 381 | 44,467 | 1,117,254 | |||||||
1999 | 909,774 | 99,112 | 4,691 | 45,284 | 1,058,861 | |||||||
2000 | 984,206 | 107,280 | 23,991 | 50,084 | 1,165,561 | |||||||
2001 | 1,133,599 | 12,831 | 101,305 | 55,217 | 1,302,952 | |||||||
2002 | 1,394,816 | (42,919 | ) | 78,130 | 74,841 | 1,504,868 | ||||||
2003 | 1,558,108 | (22,215 | ) | 103,697 | 90,472 | 1,730,062 | ||||||
Total | 8,932,418 | 449,621 | 2,174,799 | 485,251 | 12,042,089 | |||||||
OG Cas (R)
Page 9 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance Overseas General Non-Casualty Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 159,338 | 0 | 200,273 | 16,082 | 375,693 | |||||
1996 | 145,620 | 0 | 176,626 | 15,212 | 337,458 | |||||
1997 | 158,753 | 0 | 266,267 | 16,255 | 441,275 | |||||
1998 | 299,644 | 0 | 219,203 | 22,895 | 541,742 | |||||
1999 | 296,180 | 0 | 231,807 | 29,936 | 557,922 | |||||
2000 | 337,542 | 0 | 232,140 | 34,697 | 604,378 | |||||
2001 | 318,492 | 0 | 112,439 | 48,602 | 479,533 | |||||
2002 | 256,995 | 0 | 75,649 | 26,917 | 359,562 | |||||
2003 | 97,947 | 0 | 32,887 | 9,158 | 139,992 | |||||
Total | 2,070,512 | 0 | 1,547,290 | 219,753 | 3,837,555 | |||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 159,863 | 0 | 203,042 | 16,138 | 379,043 | |||||
1996 | 147,427 | 0 | 181,953 | 15,424 | 344,804 | |||||
1997 | 162,745 | 0 | 283,679 | 16,699 | 463,123 | |||||
1998 | 303,005 | 0 | 231,921 | 23,257 | 558,183 | |||||
1999 | 304,434 | 0 | 240,409 | 30,866 | 575,710 | |||||
2000 | 358,614 | 0 | 255,519 | 36,887 | 651,020 | |||||
2001 | 351,863 | 0 | 124,154 | 53,668 | 529,684 | |||||
2002 | 337,305 | 0 | 108,632 | 34,661 | 480,598 | |||||
2003 | 298,823 | 0 | 71,390 | 27,922 | 398,135 | |||||
Total | 2,424,079 | 0 | 1,700,699 | 255,522 | 4,380,300 | |||||
Net Earned Premium | ||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 330,275 | 0 | 470,391 | 33,789 | 834,455 | |||||
1996 | 328,952 | 0 | 419,426 | 33,246 | 781,624 | |||||
1997 | 339,137 | 0 | 382,035 | 32,634 | 753,807 | |||||
1998 | 343,842 | 0 | 327,720 | 32,095 | 703,657 | |||||
1999 | 349,188 | 0 | 252,879 | 31,607 | 633,674 | |||||
2000 | 366,502 | 0 | 200,749 | 33,275 | 600,526 | |||||
2001 | 393,521 | 0 | 240,930 | 36,908 | 671,358 | |||||
2002 | 564,219 | 0 | 273,585 | 54,259 | 892,063 | |||||
2003 | 766,792 | 0 | 425,783 | 71,546 | 1,264,121 | |||||
Total | 3,782,428 | 0 | 2,993,498 | 359,359 | 7,135,285 | |||||
OG NC (R)
Page 10 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance Overseas General Personal Accident Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 150,736 | 0 | 45,669 | 13,039 | 209,444 | |||||
1996 | 150,113 | 0 | 37,237 | 13,171 | 200,521 | |||||
1997 | 166,991 | 0 | 43,858 | 14,423 | 225,272 | |||||
1998 | 190,489 | 0 | 62,268 | 17,117 | 269,874 | |||||
1999 | 176,806 | 0 | 62,407 | 15,903 | 255,116 | |||||
2000 | 180,790 | 0 | 102,155 | 16,582 | 299,527 | |||||
2001 | 219,610 | 0 | 28,801 | 22,119 | 270,530 | |||||
2002 | 196,566 | 0 | 12,709 | 18,494 | 227,768 | |||||
2003 | 115,310 | 0 | 2,256 | 10,648 | 128,214 | |||||
Total | 1,547,410 | 0 | 397,360 | 141,495 | 2,086,266 | |||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 151,771 | 0 | 48,074 | 13,162 | 213,007 | |||||
1996 | 152,519 | 0 | 39,760 | 13,394 | 205,673 | |||||
1997 | 169,362 | 0 | 47,458 | 14,666 | 231,487 | |||||
1998 | 193,379 | 0 | 68,007 | 17,398 | 278,784 | |||||
1999 | 183,525 | 0 | 70,261 | 16,654 | 270,440 | |||||
2000 | 192,767 | 0 | 113,570 | 17,870 | 324,207 | |||||
2001 | 251,666 | 0 | 32,451 | 25,687 | 309,804 | |||||
2002 | 259,285 | 0 | 18,544 | 24,973 | 302,802 | |||||
2003 | 192,671 | 0 | 6,218 | 18,314 | 217,203 | |||||
Total | 1,746,946 | 0 | 444,344 | 162,117 | 2,353,407 | |||||
Net Earned Premium | ||||||||||
Accident Year | Previous Release | AGM Methodology | Restatement/ Reclassification | Currency | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 403,833 | 0 | 77,241 | 32,443 | 513,517 | |||||
1996 | 426,573 | 0 | 68,758 | 34,161 | 529,491 | |||||
1997 | 534,800 | 0 | 72,459 | 29,565 | 636,823 | |||||
1998 | 474,808 | 0 | 91,459 | 37,911 | 604,179 | |||||
1999 | 487,356 | 0 | 104,800 | 39,809 | 631,965 | |||||
2000 | 486,930 | 0 | 89,478 | 41,555 | 617,963 | |||||
2001 | 558,951 | 0 | 56,848 | 49,735 | 665,534 | |||||
2002 | 662,451 | 0 | 50,609 | 60,654 | 773,713 | |||||
2003 | 718,979 | 0 | 87,551 | 66,145 | 872,676 | |||||
Total | 4,754,681 | 0 | 699,204 | 391,976 | 5,845,861 | |||||
OG PA (R)
Page 11 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Global Re Property Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||
Treaty Year | Previous Release | Currency | Miscellaneous | Current Release | ||||||
1995 | 69,314 | 1,974 | 0 | 71,288 | ||||||
1996 | 25,843 | 35 | 0 | 25,878 | ||||||
1997 | 17,564 | 376 | 0 | 17,940 | ||||||
1998 | 89,042 | 2,326 | 0 | 91,368 | ||||||
1999 | 47,990 | 3,603 | 0 | 51,593 | ||||||
2000 | 51,113 | 616 | 0 | 51,729 | ||||||
2001 | 55,746 | 150 | 0 | 55,897 | ||||||
2002 | 75,099 | 1,131 | (1 | ) | 76,229 | |||||
2003 | 30,370 | 0 | (0 | ) | 30,370 | |||||
Total | 462,083 | 10,210 | (1 | ) | 472,292 | |||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | ||||||||||
Treaty Year | Previous Release | Currency | Miscellaneous | Current Release | ||||||
1995 | 69,366 | 1,976 | 0 | 71,342 | ||||||
1996 | 25,978 | 36 | 0 | 26,014 | ||||||
1997 | 18,259 | 414 | 0 | 18,673 | ||||||
1998 | 89,721 | 2,359 | 0 | 92,080 | ||||||
1999 | 48,134 | 3,606 | 0 | 51,740 | ||||||
2000 | 50,447 | 616 | (0 | ) | 51,063 | |||||
2001 | 56,943 | 187 | 0 | 57,130 | ||||||
2002 | 116,337 | 1,747 | (0 | ) | 118,083 | |||||
2003 | 61,749 | (5,218 | ) | (5 | ) | 56,526 | ||||
Total | 536,933 | 5,722 | (5 | ) | 542,650 | |||||
GR Prop(R)
Page 12 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Global Re Non-Property Reconciliation to Previous Release In $US thousands | |
Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Treaty Year | Previous Release | Currency | Miscellaneous | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
2000 | 13,761 | 0 | 0 | 13,762 | |||||
2001 | 23,691 | 0 | (1,234 | ) | 22,457 | ||||
2002 | 14,977 | 0 | (0 | ) | 14,976 | ||||
2003 | 4,268 | 0 | 0 | 4,268 | |||||
Total | 56,697 | 0 | (1,233 | ) | 55,464 | ||||
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003 | |||||||||
Treaty Year | Previous Release | Currency | Miscellaneous | Current Release | |||||
1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
2000 | 20,026 | 0 | 0 | 20,027 | |||||
2001 | 38,016 | 0 | (1,327 | ) | 36,689 | ||||
2002 | 37,259 | 0 | 1 | 37,260 | |||||
2003 | 19,537 | 0 | 6 | 19,543 | |||||
Total | 114,838 | 0 | (1,320 | ) | 113,518 | ||||
GR NProp(R)
Page 13 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Overview Reserve Evaluation Considerations | |
We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who track insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. This is accomplished not only by employing a variety of actuarial methods, but also by applying judgment to help quantify the impact of these variables.
Considerable caution should be used when attempting to analyze reserve adequacy based on aggregated triangles. It is rare that the data is so consistent, homogeneous, and static that a valid analysis is possible without exercising substantial judgment. Results can be distorted by both industry-wide and company-specific factors. Below is a non-exhaustive list of possible pitfalls:
• | Many methods for judging reserve adequacy (e.g. Stanard-Buhlmann, Least Squares) assume that expected loss ratios (ELRs) do not change over time. In fact, ELRs can change substantially from year to year due to many reasons (e.g. change in rates, change in mix of business, etc.). In recent years, a hard market has produced higher rates and more restrictive terms and conditions for most lines, which should result in lower ELRs. If these rate changes are not taken into consideration, indicated reserves will most likely be overstated, or explained another way, misleading reserve deficiencies may be indicated. While we consider ACE’s actual rate change information to be proprietary, there are a number of public sources that can be used as a proxy to adjust loss ratios to a more appropriate level. These sources include, but are not limited to, the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) Commercial Insurance Lines survey, Lloyd’s of London Premium Rating Index, and Tillinghast-Towers Perrin Directors & Officers Liability Survey. |
• | Changes in inflation rates distort any reserve analysis based on loss triangles. If expected future inflation is lower (higher) than historical inflation rates, needed reserves may be overstated (understated) as a result, and appropriate adjustments should be made. If inflation rates are stable, no adjustment may be required. |
• | Many other changes and distortions (e.g. change in reinsurance structure, large losses, change in settlement rates, etc.) can skew the results of a reserve analysis based on aggregated triangles. These distortions are not always easily corrected for, but we have attempted to identify and quantify them wherever possible. |
• | Loss development methods can be particularly volatile at the first and second evaluation points, especially for longer-tailed lines. In those situations, we would recommend relying on an expected loss technique. One expected loss technique not addressed in Feldblum’s paper (see below) is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, which can be modified to incorporate information on changing premium rates in an analysis of reserve adequacy. |
There are a number of valid prospective tests of reserve adequacy that can be performed based on consolidated triangles. One excellent source of information on the various methods is Completing and Using Schedule P by Sholom Feldblum (1) . It is strongly recommended that anyone attempting to analyze reserves presented in loss triangles be familiar with the methods detailed in the section entitled “Loss Reserve Adequacy Testing – Prospective Valuation.”
(1) Publicly available on the Casualty Actuarial Society’s web site at the following address http://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/02fforum/02ff353.pdf
Considerations
Page 14 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Highlights - Insurance North American Segment | |
Insurance North American Segment
The Insurance North American segment covers business written by ACE USA (including business written in other ACE entities but managed by ACE USA), ACE Westchester Specialty, ACE Canada, and ACE Bermuda. A significant portion of ACE Bermuda’s exposure is from the US, though a portion does reside in Europe.
There are three important points with regards to the “Prior” line. First, the “Prior” line shown here is gross of retroactive reinsurance (NICO treaties). Second, it would be incorrect to apply a single loss development factor to the “Prior” line, as it does not represent a single accident year but the total activity in accident years 1994 and prior. Third, nearly all of ACE’s Asbestos and Environmental exposure is contained in the “Prior” line of the General Liability triangles. Development factors derived from loss triangles are inappropriate for analysis of this exposure.
Contained in the triangles are a few instances of modest negative case reserves (calculated by taking the difference between the reported and paid at a given development age for a particular accident year). This is typically due to either salvage and subrogation or timing differences associated primarily with ceded reinsurance. For Workers Compensation and other Casualty lines, it will usually be the latter. For Non-Casualty lines, it tends to be the former. In our view, these negative case reserves will not significantly distort an analysis nor detract from the usefulness of the information provided.
Insurance North American – Workers Compensation
The US Statutory Schedule P filings for Workers Compensation (WC) only show a portion of ACE’s total WC business due to an internal reinsurance transaction between the ACE American Pool and another ACE entity. Under this transaction 100% of the outstanding liabilities for the 2000 and prior accident years and 100% of any future development (net of third party reinsurance) was ceded outside the ACE American Pool. The WC triangle shown in this supplement includes the business ceded through this contract and as such gives a more complete representation of the WC business written by ACE’s US based direct operations.
The WC line has experienced shifts in mix by business type during the ten year experience period included in the loss triangles. In the 1995 through 1999 years, guaranteed cost policies and first dollar loss sensitive products made up a large portion of the portfolio. The paid and incurred losses for this time period should experience development consistent with industry patterns.
Beginning with the 2000 accident year, the mix shifted largely to risk management accounts with high deductible programs where the excess of deductible losses were mostly reinsured to third parties. Under high deductible programs, net losses are excess and therefore would tend to have longer development patterns than primary or first dollar losses. Premiums for risk management accounts include significant loadings for administrative expenses and unallocated loss expenses. As a result, the loss component of the net premium is much lower than primary or guaranteed cost policies making loss projection methods that rely on expected loss ratios based on industry experience (or prior year loss ratios) inappropriate.
In 2003, the majority of the WC business was still written on large deductible policies though less reinsurance was purchased. In 2004, large deductible policies still dominated the workers compensation portfolio however there was strong growth in first dollar guaranteed cost business.
Insurance North American – General Liability
The triangles consist of Primary General Liability, Excess Liability, Professional Liability, and Products Liability. The Primary General Liability and US Excess Liability are written on an occurrence basis and represent the largest part, while the Professional Liability and Bermuda Excess Liability are written on a claims made basis. Given the recent hard market in Professional Liability, each of the four entities has grown its Professional Liability book over recent years.
Furthermore, the underwriting cycle has been particularly pronounced for Professional Liability, with a soft market throughout the late 1990’s and into 2001, followed by a significant hardening. These changes in price adequacy should be incorporated into any analysis of reserve levels.
ACE Bermuda writes on a “claims first reported” form which means that coverage is triggered when news of a potential claim is received, potentially well in advance of a claim being filed. In addition, Bermuda typically writes at high attachment points, particularly on its Excess Liability book.
Finally, in ACE’s US statutory Schedule P, Warranty business appears in Other Liability – Occurrence. However, Warranty claims are settled quickly, and case reserves are generally not established. This makes it very different from the other business included in the Other Liability line. Warranty products are multi-year contracts, and rather than establish IBNR reserves for future claims, premium earnings are deferred over the life of the contracts and an unearned premium reserve is held which is reviewed and tested for adequacy (this is consistent with industry practice). Therefore, we have removed data associated with Warranty business from the triangles. This exclusion has also been applied in the Overseas General segment.
Insurance North American – Other Casualty
These triangles consist of the non-WC and non-GL long tailed business. The lines included are Auto Liability, Commercial Multi-Peril, Political Risk, Marine, and Aviation. The last two lines are the main components of the Special Liability line in ACE’s US Schedule P.
Insurance North American – Non-Casualty
The vast majority of business in this triangle consists of Property exposures. In addition, there is Auto Physical Damage, Fidelity and Surety, and the “Other” line from ACE’s US annual statement, which includes Personal Accident exposure.
Highlights NA
Page 15 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American Workers Compensation As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 273,445 | 522,768 | 723,892 | 894,809 | 1,055,224 | 1,163,285 | 1,274,108 | 1,365,221 | 1,455,767 | ||||||||||
1995 | 91,651 | 195,434 | 236,018 | 273,071 | 287,561 | 300,865 | 312,490 | 314,018 | 318,098 | 319,133 | ||||||||||
1996 | 45,160 | 91,727 | 114,961 | 152,358 | 187,767 | 209,904 | 230,866 | 247,922 | 261,372 | |||||||||||
1997 | 57,285 | 108,553 | 147,874 | 171,063 | 186,949 | 200,390 | 208,520 | 213,265 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 67,051 | 146,424 | 182,542 | 216,480 | 237,970 | 256,089 | 268,150 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 37,504 | 82,491 | 124,127 | 155,941 | 179,062 | 193,173 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 28,329 | 48,636 | 105,291 | 112,536 | 119,314 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 15,658 | 41,510 | 59,244 | 75,260 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 27,783 | 76,804 | 88,735 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 39,091 | 58,804 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 70,045 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 1,585,212 | 1,681,015 | 1,827,385 | 1,936,056 | 2,052,280 | 2,089,454 | 2,122,289 | 2,285,922 | 2,358,383 | 2,485,947 | ||||||||||
1995 | 176,749 | 263,979 | 291,182 | 320,265 | 338,297 | 344,747 | 354,596 | 356,262 | 357,130 | 357,495 | ||||||||||
1996 | 90,312 | 129,518 | 142,202 | 158,158 | 181,837 | 201,504 | 237,966 | 246,056 | 246,766 | |||||||||||
1997 | 126,468 | 181,078 | 207,614 | 223,294 | 234,839 | 246,125 | 250,535 | 253,181 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 147,711 | 232,256 | 259,434 | 285,628 | 310,933 | 326,048 | 329,208 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 92,696 | 135,204 | 161,084 | 201,324 | 221,534 | 226,310 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 38,655 | 81,080 | 132,587 | 136,337 | 134,073 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 29,314 | 61,633 | 70,709 | 83,947 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 55,829 | 124,162 | 128,191 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 100,487 | 115,207 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 162,638 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 500,367 | |
1996 | 440,394 | |
1997 | 418,079 | |
1998 | 450,868 | |
1999 | 347,951 | |
2000 | 210,985 | |
2001 | 272,491 | |
2002 | 376,383 | |
2003 | 616,471 | |
2004 | 907,641 |
NA WC
Page 16 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American General Liability As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 574,241 | 1,324,849 | 1,990,227 | 2,836,526 | 3,322,427 | 3,627,815 | 3,901,504 | 4,216,970 | 4,444,911 | ||||||||||
1995 | 24,613 | 79,662 | 108,834 | 134,016 | 163,599 | 188,290 | 203,070 | 209,914 | 206,316 | 211,429 | ||||||||||
1996 | 10,573 | 45,719 | 87,763 | 134,029 | 175,107 | 195,408 | 214,931 | 232,302 | 239,179 | |||||||||||
1997 | 7,440 | 46,189 | 79,990 | 107,634 | 137,239 | 168,675 | 193,956 | 222,769 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 13,142 | 50,869 | 132,182 | 183,642 | 175,371 | 221,123 | 221,936 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 29,751 | 128,373 | 195,504 | 227,899 | 278,121 | 280,523 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 54,815 | 111,223 | 136,657 | 236,320 | 308,563 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 26,416 | 120,539 | 136,132 | 141,025 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 31,960 | 111,492 | 150,381 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 42,103 | 204,609 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 67,531 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 1,562,463 | 2,092,567 | 2,535,155 | 2,968,840 | 3,423,223 | 3,852,061 | 4,130,974 | 4,226,436 | 4,547,594 | 4,780,796 | ||||||||||
1995 | 75,271 | 138,076 | 168,420 | 184,432 | 215,052 | 253,615 | 264,683 | 256,248 | 261,841 | 256,922 | ||||||||||
1996 | 49,093 | 87,594 | 127,593 | 160,703 | 201,209 | 225,924 | 245,956 | 246,359 | 250,854 | |||||||||||
1997 | 51,422 | 131,229 | 171,376 | 187,420 | 221,453 | 233,564 | 219,432 | 241,364 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 43,311 | 116,462 | 187,325 | 248,617 | 238,783 | 240,127 | 245,100 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 64,339 | 178,046 | 251,393 | 294,813 | 317,345 | 348,681 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 87,674 | 198,297 | 301,701 | 351,784 | 399,432 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 67,092 | 204,533 | 254,139 | 327,586 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 85,013 | 143,747 | 327,657 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 76,795 | 293,908 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 173,149 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 632,061 | |
1996 | 612,687 | |
1997 | 534,235 | |
1998 | 473,156 | |
1999 | 467,414 | |
2000 | 389,906 | |
2001 | 307,359 | |
2002 | 692,220 | |
2003 | 1,272,178 | |
2004 | 1,557,941 |
NA GL
Page 17 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American Other Casualty As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 533,224 | 913,831 | 1,147,145 | 1,382,722 | 1,519,158 | 1,649,408 | 1,753,318 | 1,824,162 | 1,817,158 | ||||||||||
1995 | 213,795 | 425,704 | 514,518 | 579,937 | 603,454 | 623,158 | 636,231 | 643,150 | 645,716 | 651,046 | ||||||||||
1996 | 265,380 | 515,730 | 603,538 | 655,034 | 686,938 | 713,885 | 722,781 | 728,364 | 729,945 | |||||||||||
1997 | 192,581 | 334,286 | 402,049 | 438,554 | 462,987 | 476,200 | 492,325 | 501,472 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 221,004 | 384,190 | 475,275 | 536,587 | 573,086 | 595,824 | 600,393 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 170,153 | 281,358 | 352,230 | 397,033 | 424,236 | 448,673 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 206,932 | 345,811 | 386,404 | 423,935 | 466,658 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 100,954 | 196,661 | 249,648 | 277,455 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 107,727 | 178,663 | 219,575 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 122,164 | 181,490 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 136,816 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 1,195,585 | 1,386,886 | 1,520,786 | 1,568,524 | 1,754,732 | 1,861,010 | 1,968,063 | 2,148,446 | 2,130,362 | 2,388,429 | ||||||||||
1995 | 430,676 | 560,818 | 599,251 | 634,495 | 634,014 | 638,157 | 641,056 | 651,382 | 653,421 | 655,220 | ||||||||||
1996 | 479,842 | 627,543 | 696,402 | 706,834 | 717,953 | 732,486 | 732,975 | 737,775 | 736,901 | |||||||||||
1997 | 336,590 | 425,986 | 474,054 | 492,136 | 502,304 | 511,487 | 522,330 | 529,765 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 424,239 | 535,121 | 586,906 | 614,882 | 628,312 | 643,863 | 642,351 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 309,653 | 370,661 | 409,171 | 445,751 | 456,596 | 487,059 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 322,566 | 405,289 | 417,440 | 454,880 | 471,953 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 153,867 | 241,054 | 288,432 | 316,616 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 186,298 | 243,031 | 258,946 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 190,667 | 223,308 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 226,488 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 991,968 | |
1996 | 905,631 | |
1997 | 749,668 | |
1998 | 621,196 | |
1999 | 573,303 | |
2000 | 477,137 | |
2001 | 409,414 | |
2002 | 549,858 | |
2003 | 666,567 | |
2004 | 582,699 |
NA Other Cas
Page 18 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance North American Non-Casualty As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 91,010 | 126,103 | 154,856 | 152,003 | 166,681 | 168,647 | 171,947 | 176,642 | 180,815 | ||||||||||
1995 | 142,861 | 233,173 | 247,504 | 260,069 | 265,709 | 266,570 | 268,528 | 268,005 | 274,047 | 273,955 | ||||||||||
1996 | 141,177 | 223,297 | 243,966 | 259,150 | 257,703 | 258,976 | 260,869 | 262,363 | 262,400 | |||||||||||
1997 | 132,772 | 207,919 | 239,115 | 241,368 | 246,191 | 253,664 | 253,911 | 253,854 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 195,179 | 320,804 | 345,873 | 355,504 | 359,673 | 363,474 | 362,651 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 181,219 | 260,443 | 276,591 | 284,839 | 288,134 | 291,750 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 263,407 | 377,650 | 385,761 | 393,274 | 392,855 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 203,353 | 274,329 | 267,642 | 290,965 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 300,325 | 398,959 | 471,275 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 381,571 | 505,290 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 402,107 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 142,378 | 198,924 | 193,906 | 233,982 | 235,496 | 239,067 | 245,650 | 180,496 | 201,869 | 208,134 | ||||||||||
1995 | 205,516 | 241,123 | 253,330 | 263,901 | 266,683 | 267,063 | 272,026 | 268,837 | 274,305 | 274,517 | ||||||||||
1996 | 271,334 | 269,817 | 274,311 | 278,709 | 275,114 | 268,597 | 269,644 | 270,513 | 270,531 | |||||||||||
1997 | 220,517 | 252,689 | 260,495 | 251,069 | 250,433 | 252,916 | 252,833 | 252,630 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 340,379 | 347,466 | 352,639 | 356,434 | 362,515 | 365,842 | 364,714 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 238,012 | 307,602 | 292,092 | 299,164 | 292,283 | 302,598 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 396,065 | 435,497 | 435,220 | 423,740 | 408,262 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 212,241 | 306,564 | 295,381 | 322,006 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 329,295 | 407,769 | 477,040 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 469,553 | 583,543 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 591,736 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 434,215 | |
1996 | 510,800 | |
1997 | 530,090 | |
1998 | 535,981 | |
1999 | 517,344 | |
2000 | 668,816 | |
2001 | 618,312 | |
2002 | 809,043 | |
2003 | 1,080,725 | |
2004 | 1,606,098 |
NA NCas
Page 19 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment | |
Insurance Overseas General Segment
The Insurance Overseas General segment includes business written by ACE International and ACE Global Markets (AGM). ACE International has four regions, with the majority of the business located in Europe. AGM business is written in the Lloyd’s market and is mostly US business. An important reserving consideration is that, in accordance with standard London Market practice, ACE analyzes its AGM business on a gross underwriting year basis rather than an accident year basis. In order to provide net data on an accident year basis it has been necessary to make a number of assumptions. As noted elsewhere, for the purposes of conducting a reserve analysis, reliance on any purely mechanical methods may produce artificially high or low estimates, and some degree of judgment should be used in selecting factors and in the selection of an overall development pattern.
At the previous release we excluded a number of AGM classes from this segment due to complications involved with extracting the historical data in the required format. Since that time we have been able to remedy these issues and extract data for the following classes within AGM - Personal Accident, Energy, Property and Casualty for accident years 1996 and prior.
At the previous release, the starting point for ACE International was active business. For completeness and consistency with other segments, we have included some discontinued lines and small countries at this release.
We have compiled the triangles in original currency and then converted to $US at December 2004 exchange rates for all historical data. This approach removes the impact of currency fluctuations from historical development trends.
Insurance Overseas General – Casualty
The majority of the exposures consist of General Liability and Professional Liability from both ACE International and AGM. As noted in the Insurance North American discussion, there was a hardening of the Professional Liability market in the last four years, and any analysis should reflect these changes in price adequacy. Also included in this triangle are relatively smaller amounts of Auto Liability, Employers Liability, Marine, Aviation, and Political Risk.
The strong growth in recent years has been accompanied by a shift in mix, with Professional Lines and European business being areas of stronger growth. An appropriate valuation basis should reflect the impact of these changes on loss development factors.
Insurance Overseas General – Non-Casualty
These triangles consist entirely of Property and Energy losses. The addition of AGM data this year has increased the premium volume in this segment by around 70%, without altering the loss trends significantly.
Insurance Overseas General – Personal Accident
This is mostly traditional accident business with no health insurance component. In recent years over 95% of this business has been written by ACE International, up from 85-90% in the late 1990s. Although relatively small, the inclusion of the AGM data means we now have a complete set of data.
Highlights OG
Page 20 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance Overseas General Casualty As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 147,440 | 259,108 | 347,361 | 407,464 | 451,431 | 477,031 | 500,737 | 520,440 | 530,964 | ||||||||||
1995 | 225,448 | 376,123 | 451,593 | 501,847 | 543,081 | 574,644 | 591,320 | 597,889 | 602,307 | 604,103 | ||||||||||
1996 | 258,236 | 431,328 | 503,353 | 571,375 | 616,070 | 646,391 | 674,056 | 687,227 | 689,555 | |||||||||||
1997 | 237,194 | 403,452 | 474,471 | 524,860 | 577,461 | 622,293 | 636,540 | 640,837 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 267,583 | 429,636 | 503,412 | 571,086 | 612,195 | 641,400 | 657,422 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 247,455 | 418,655 | 502,633 | 556,756 | 603,663 | 630,435 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 286,982 | 532,253 | 672,096 | 760,866 | 842,106 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 230,275 | 452,833 | 571,227 | 698,287 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 197,397 | 395,823 | 515,833 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 171,413 | 327,562 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 163,356 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 369,044 | 470,637 | 530,297 | 540,949 | 562,417 | 573,125 | 601,232 | 590,253 | 602,186 | 597,185 | ||||||||||
1995 | 378,485 | 525,193 | 563,597 | 594,115 | 620,732 | 633,849 | 635,916 | 629,117 | 627,871 | 625,363 | ||||||||||
1996 | 423,517 | 583,312 | 639,217 | 678,921 | 698,898 | 720,105 | 716,360 | 729,177 | 725,364 | |||||||||||
1997 | 390,248 | 555,037 | 599,130 | 637,305 | 671,434 | 686,896 | 699,256 | 697,369 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 432,278 | 582,168 | 643,481 | 694,653 | 718,947 | 721,639 | 721,162 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 403,736 | 576,346 | 645,004 | 678,123 | 704,850 | 713,182 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 457,887 | 740,615 | 890,320 | 971,402 | 1,055,388 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 436,494 | 686,402 | 830,381 | 943,117 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 387,628 | 620,851 | 755,227 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 344,084 | 506,646 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 366,852 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 1,466,517 | |
1996 | 1,464,992 | |
1997 | 1,231,022 | |
1998 | 1,117,254 | |
1999 | 1,058,861 | |
2000 | 1,165,561 | |
2001 | 1,302,952 | |
2002 | 1,504,868 | |
2003 | 1,730,062 | |
2004 | 1,942,247 |
OG Cas
Page 21 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance Overseas General Non-Casualty As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 61,186 | 95,174 | 110,457 | 114,269 | 115,420 | 117,896 | 115,158 | 117,849 | 117,841 | ||||||||||
1995 | 160,147 | 306,824 | 350,821 | 365,332 | 367,197 | 367,767 | 376,078 | 374,254 | 375,693 | 376,635 | ||||||||||
1996 | 152,822 | 283,812 | 316,462 | 326,702 | 329,550 | 334,639 | 338,140 | 337,458 | 336,541 | |||||||||||
1997 | 175,155 | 333,391 | 380,981 | 407,366 | 420,929 | 436,135 | 441,275 | 448,413 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 230,976 | 430,072 | 490,259 | 519,533 | 540,836 | 541,742 | 541,784 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 190,667 | 419,564 | 508,132 | 551,228 | 557,922 | 561,713 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 206,173 | 458,529 | 571,582 | 604,378 | 612,234 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 160,932 | 407,307 | 479,533 | 501,440 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 169,068 | 359,562 | 435,424 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 139,992 | 369,593 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 213,561 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 151,363 | 151,077 | 144,302 | 147,016 | 140,870 | 135,539 | 134,257 | 129,275 | 128,065 | 128,268 | ||||||||||
1995 | 331,500 | 386,200 | 388,132 | 388,149 | 385,671 | 379,656 | 382,596 | 379,278 | 379,043 | 379,520 | ||||||||||
1996 | 299,479 | 342,181 | 346,857 | 346,532 | 345,609 | 348,388 | 346,761 | 344,804 | 341,891 | |||||||||||
1997 | 365,016 | 417,116 | 441,884 | 447,544 | 456,793 | 460,241 | 463,123 | 462,679 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 443,762 | 550,130 | 558,958 | 560,210 | 556,954 | 558,183 | 556,590 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 424,636 | 578,663 | 580,660 | 578,607 | 575,710 | 581,525 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 516,000 | 637,526 | 649,406 | 651,020 | 648,841 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 468,907 | 539,499 | 529,684 | 526,466 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 382,004 | 480,598 | 482,756 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 398,135 | 502,053 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 508,253 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 834,455 | |
1996 | 781,624 | |
1997 | 753,807 | |
1998 | 703,657 | |
1999 | 633,674 | |
2000 | 600,526 | |
2001 | 671,358 | |
2002 | 892,063 | |
2003 | 1,264,121 | |
2004 | 1,402,308 |
OG NCas
Page 22 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Insurance Overseas General Personal Accident As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 46,242 | 66,933 | 78,295 | 83,447 | 89,682 | 94,250 | 95,594 | 98,454 | 97,959 | ||||||||||
1995 | 94,732 | 166,554 | 189,853 | 199,173 | 203,762 | 205,175 | 207,878 | 208,602 | 209,444 | 210,187 | ||||||||||
1996 | 93,047 | 163,492 | 182,941 | 191,411 | 194,713 | 197,819 | 199,836 | 200,521 | 201,403 | |||||||||||
1997 | 98,171 | 173,996 | 204,500 | 213,813 | 220,825 | 224,601 | 225,272 | 226,416 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 124,705 | 216,922 | 247,734 | 263,334 | 267,277 | 269,874 | 272,792 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 111,195 | 205,485 | 236,355 | 247,660 | 255,116 | 259,962 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 126,537 | 240,473 | 283,136 | 299,527 | 308,522 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 113,841 | 228,290 | 270,530 | 296,137 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 121,214 | 227,768 | 278,818 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 128,214 | 248,155 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 131,523 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 63,907 | 88,705 | 97,357 | 99,124 | 101,640 | 101,801 | 101,937 | 102,172 | 102,926 | 103,133 | ||||||||||
1995 | 143,471 | 197,136 | 206,880 | 211,038 | 211,090 | 211,657 | 212,842 | 213,171 | 213,007 | 214,108 | ||||||||||
1996 | 135,029 | 190,324 | 201,375 | 203,023 | 203,069 | 204,832 | 205,103 | 205,673 | 205,328 | |||||||||||
1997 | 150,616 | 205,187 | 224,378 | 227,037 | 230,145 | 230,888 | 231,487 | 231,316 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 178,883 | 249,814 | 270,133 | 275,715 | 276,269 | 278,784 | 279,946 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 165,306 | 242,106 | 261,182 | 267,671 | 270,440 | 273,777 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 176,751 | 289,146 | 312,159 | 324,207 | 330,263 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 186,416 | 273,941 | 309,804 | 328,778 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 191,727 | 302,802 | 321,887 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 217,203 | 309,778 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 208,097 |
Net Earned Premium
Accident Year | NEP | |
1995 | 513,517 | |
1996 | 529,491 | |
1997 | 636,823 | |
1998 | 604,179 | |
1999 | 631,965 | |
2000 | 617,963 | |
2001 | 665,534 | |
2002 | 773,713 | |
2003 | 872,676 | |
2004 | 986,983 |
OG PA
Page 23 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Highlights - Global Re Segment | |
Global Re Segment
The Global Re segment contains the business written by Tempest USA, Tempest Bermuda, and Tempest Europe. Tempest USA writes a North American treaty reinsurance book covering nearly all lines and is sourced through reinsurance brokers. Tempest Bermuda was founded in 1993 and writes catastrophe reinsurance, primarily Property coverages. Tempest Europe writes a worldwide portfolio of Marine, Aviation, Property and Casualty business.
Unlike the rest of the triangles, the data for Global Re is presented on a treaty year basis, not on an accident year basis. A feature of treaty year data is that individual treaties can incept at any time during a given treaty year. Therefore a full treaty year can typically take up to 36 months to fully earn, and possibly longer if the year contains multi-year contracts. Since reserves should only be established for the earned portion of each treaty year, care should be taken not to fully develop the more recent treaty years without excluding the unearned portion of that treaty year.
Global Re Property (previously Non-Casualty)
Prior to policy year 2001, all of the loss experience relates to Tempest Bermuda and is therefore all Property Catastrophe related. In the policy years subsequent to 2001, the Property Per Risk and Energy books have grown substantially. However Property Catastrophe business still makes up the majority of the portfolio on all treaty years.
Global Re Non-Property (previously Casualty)
This portfolio consists of a wide range of business including General Casualty, Auto, Professional Liability, Medical Malpractice, Credit, Aviation and Marine.
Given the short history of Global Re in Casualty lines of business, there are only five treaty years of loss and ALAE experience to date, and given the long-tail nature of the business, it is difficult to perform any meaningful analysis, especially with loss development methods. Compounding this limitation is the fact that this portfolio grew rapidly in its first few years and therefore the loss development experience emerging from the initial treaty years is not necessarily a good guide for the later years. Other methods, such as a pure Expected Loss Ratio or Bornhuetter-Ferguson, may be more appropriate. A readily available source for loss development factors would be the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA).
Highlights GR
Page 24 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Global Re Property As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Treaty Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 11,878 | 15,831 | 19,728 | 21,627 | 21,669 | 22,129 | 22,480 | 23,922 | 25,041 | ||||||||||
1995 | 18,143 | 50,333 | 60,549 | 68,505 | 70,235 | 70,792 | 71,253 | 71,255 | 71,288 | 71,322 | ||||||||||
1996 | 15,181 | 24,816 | 25,336 | 25,681 | 25,677 | 25,871 | 25,880 | 25,878 | 28,695 | |||||||||||
1997 | 6,022 | 10,947 | 14,006 | 17,689 | 17,972 | 18,003 | 17,940 | 17,919 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 26,108 | 70,361 | 92,174 | 93,105 | 93,212 | 91,368 | 91,355 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 22,022 | 55,439 | 49,489 | 51,385 | 51,593 | 51,371 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 8,966 | 34,228 | 47,308 | 51,729 | 51,727 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 26,908 | 41,329 | 55,897 | 68,583 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 26,844 | 76,229 | 116,288 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 30,370 | 68,217 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 164,591 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Treaty Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 16,763 | 19,770 | 20,691 | 23,315 | 23,559 | 23,512 | 23,625 | 22,973 | 24,488 | 25,466 | ||||||||||
1995 | 59,822 | 61,479 | 65,569 | 70,316 | 71,093 | 71,096 | 71,417 | 71,367 | 71,342 | 71,323 | ||||||||||
1996 | 25,170 | 26,335 | 25,894 | 25,969 | 25,807 | 25,992 | 26,105 | 26,014 | 28,738 | |||||||||||
1997 | 11,311 | 15,676 | 18,726 | 18,974 | 19,063 | 18,705 | 18,673 | 18,507 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 34,201 | 87,823 | 96,003 | 95,470 | 92,666 | 92,080 | 91,882 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 25,639 | 52,486 | 53,833 | 52,052 | 51,740 | 51,490 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 15,767 | 53,646 | 53,228 | 51,063 | 55,199 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 46,561 | 49,573 | 57,130 | 68,475 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 73,884 | 118,083 | 139,463 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 56,526 | 103,810 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 244,972 |
Net Earned Premium
Treaty Year | NEP | |
1995 | 162,156 | |
1996 | 127,166 | |
1997 | 118,784 | |
1998 | 156,995 | |
1999 | 152,699 | |
2000 | 231,263 | |
2001 | 356,934 | |
2002 | 585,541 | |
2003 | 624,871 | |
2004 | 384,444 |
GR Prop
Page 25 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Global Re Non-Property As of 12/31/04 In $US thousands | |
Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Treaty Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 946 | 4,895 | 10,425 | 13,762 | 21,479 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 262 | 8,561 | 22,457 | 34,358 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 1,555 | 14,976 | 41,423 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 4,268 | 37,816 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 10,522 | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Age in months | ||||||||||||||||||||
Treaty Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 | ||||||||||
Prior | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
2000 | 1,669 | 10,779 | 16,659 | 20,027 | 31,229 | |||||||||||||||
2001 | 6,196 | 20,730 | 36,689 | 58,459 | ||||||||||||||||
2002 | 9,627 | 37,260 | 106,451 | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 19,543 | 108,698 | ||||||||||||||||||
2004 | 37,604 |
Net Earned Premium
Treaty Year | NEP | |
1995 | 0 | |
1996 | 0 | |
1997 | 0 | |
1998 | 0 | |
1999 | 0 | |
2000 | 32,858 | |
2001 | 147,294 | |
2002 | 414,375 | |
2003 | 624,018 | |
2004 | 304,189 |
GR NProp
Page 26 |
![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2004 10-K/A Disclosure | |
As an insurance and reinsurance company, we are required, under GAAP, to establish loss reserves for the estimated unpaid portion of the ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements with our insured and reinsured customers. These reserves include estimates for both claims that have been reported and those that have been incurred but not reported (IBNR), and include estimates of expenses associated with processing and settling these claims. At December 31 2004, the unpaid losses and loss expense reserve was $31.5 billion. We do not discount our loss reserves, except for net loss and loss expense reserves of $157 million representing structured settlements for which the timing and amount of future claim payments are reliably determinable.
The process of establishing reserves for property and casualty claims can be complex and is subject to considerable variability as it requires the use of informed estimates and judgments. These estimates and judgments are based on numerous factors, and may be revised as additional experience and other data become available and are reviewed, as new or improved methodologies are developed or as current laws change. We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who analyze insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. The potential for variation in loss reserves is impacted by numerous factors, which we explain below.
We estimate loss reserves for all of the insurance and reinsurance business that we write. In most cases, we do not have all the necessary information to determine the ultimate settlement value for a claim at the time we are required to accrue for the loss. As a result, historical experience and other statistical information are used to estimate the ultimate cost of the loss, depending on the type of business. To determine carried reserves for a particular line of business, we may perform one or more reserving methods to estimate ultimate losses and loss expenses and use the results to select a single point estimate. These methods may include, but are not necessarily limited to, extrapolations of our historical reported and paid loss data, application of industry loss development patterns to our reported or paid losses, expected loss ratios developed by management, or historical industry loss ratios.
Underlying judgments and assumptions that may be incorporated into these actuarial methods include, but are not necessarily limited to, adjustments to historical data used in models to exclude aberrations in claims data such as catastrophes that are typically analyzed separately, application of tail factors used to project ultimate claims from historical loss experience when there are several data points to use, adjustments to actuarial models and related data for known business changes, such as changes in claims covered under insurance contracts, and the effect of recent or pending litigation on future claim settlements.
The process of determining a single best estimate by product, when more than one estimate is developed in the course of the actuarial review, may be performed in several ways. However, the objective of such process, which is consistently applied to all product lines, is to determine a single best estimate that we believe represents a better estimate than any other. Such estimate is viewed to support the most likely outcome of ultimate loss settlements and is determined based on several factors, including but not limited to, the extent of historical data and reliance on such data within the underlying reserve methodology, historical accuracy of loss estimates compared with actual loss experience for the product line or comparable product lines, and nature and extent of underlying assumptions.
The actuaries’ evaluation process to determine a best estimate involves collaboration with underwriting, claims and finance departments and culminates with the input of reserve committees. Each reserve committee includes the participation of the business unit’s actuary, financial management and executive management and has the responsibility for finalizing and approving the point estimate to be used as our best estimate. Reserves are further reviewed by ACE’s Chief Actuary and senior management.
10-K (1)
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![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2004 10-K/A Disclosure | |
The following is a discussion of specific reserving considerations by type of claim:
Short-Tail Business, such as Property Coverages
Short-tail business describes lines of business for which losses are usually known and paid shortly after the loss actually occurs. This would include, for example, most property, personal accident, aviation hull and automobile physical damage policies that are written. Typically, there is less variability in reserve estimates for these lines of business.
Long-Tail Business, such as Casualty Coverages
Long-tail business describes lines of business for which specific losses may not be known for some period and losses take much longer to emerge. This includes most casualty lines such as general liability, directors and officers liability (D&O) and workers’ compensation. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty and volatility of long-tail business. Among these are:
• | Given the recent expansion of this business, historical experience is often too immature to place reliance upon for reserving purposes. Instead, particularly for newer lines of business, reserve methods are based on industry loss ratios or development patterns that reflect the nature and coverage of the underwritten business and its future development. For new or growing lines of business, actual loss experience is apt to differ from industry loss statistics that are based on averages as well as loss experience of previous underwriting years; |
• | The inherent uncertainty of the length of paid and reporting development patterns; • |
• | The possibility of future litigation, legislative or judicial change that might impact future loss experience relative to prior loss experience relied upon in loss reserve analyses; |
• | Loss reserve analyses typically require loss or other data be grouped by common characteristics in some manner. If data from two combined lines of business exhibit different characteristics, such as loss payment patterns, the credibility of the reserve estimate could be affected. Because casualty lines of business can have various intricacies in their underlying coverage, there is an inherent risk as to the homogeneity of the underlying data used in performing reserve analyses. |
The interested reader is referred to ACE’s 2004 Form 10-K/A for additional information on the reserving process.
10-K (2)
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![]() | ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles Glossary | |
Accident year (AY): Relates to all losses occurring within a given twelve-month period, regardless of when the loss was reported or booked.
Bornhuetter-Ferguson method: Estimates unpaid (unreported) losses for a given accident/treaty year based on an expected ultimate and the percentage of losses currently unpaid (unreported).
Claims made basis: An insurance form where the date the loss is reported to the insurer is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the loss occurred.
Integrated occurrence: Two or more separate occurrences defined in a policy as a single occurrence. For example, a number of individual lawsuits arising over several years from a single faulty product might be defined as one occurrence under policy language.
Occurrence basis: An insurance form where the date the loss occurred is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the claim is reported to the insurer.
Retroactive reinsurance: An arrangement whereby a reinsurer assumes liability incurred as a result of past events (i.e. a loss portfolio transfer).
Treaty year (TY): Relates to all losses associated with policies that incepted within a given twelve-month period.
Year of Account (YOA) : Terminology specific to Lloyd’s business; the year to which an individual risk is allocated based on the calendar year in which it was first signed.
Glossary
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