The
more significant allegation is that some fund companies allowed certain large accounts to
place buy and sell orders several hours after the 4 p.m. trading deadline. This allowed
the favored few to take advantage of news that was likely to affect U.S. stock prices the
next day and actual price changes of foreign stocks that are traded in different time
zones. This is clearly illegal. It is amazing to me, that even in this era of widespread
financial corruption, that so many large, respected fund complexes allegedly had
employees regularly allowing late trades.
Again,
since our Funds are less volatile and rarely hold foreign stocks, we are not natural
targets for such traders. However, we strictly enforce the 4 p.m. trading deadline with
shareholders who do transactions directly with the Funds. Where mutual fund supermarkets and
other intermediaries aggregate orders for our Funds from their clients, they are
required, by contract, to observe the same 4 p.m. deadline. In short, we play by the
rules.
Market
CommentaryEconomy Recovering, but Stock Prices Recovering Faster
The
market has made a dramatic recovery from the lows of a year ago. This is natural, up to a
point, because many stocks were significantly undervalued in the panicky market
atmosphere of last October. On the other hand, today it seems that speculation is alive
and welland that the current level of optimism is premature. Many of the technology
stocks that were prominent participants in the bubble market of the 90s (and
major casualties of the bear market) are moving up strongly again. Companies with weak
balance sheets that could not raise money at any price last fall are selling bonds at
very respectable interest rates. One recent study shows that, as a group, stocks of
companies that are losing money have risen more than twice as much this year as companies
operating in the black.
The
economy is recovering, corporate earnings prospects are improving, and many companies are
making progress in strengthening their balance sheets. However, as we said last quarter,
stock prices seem to be running ahead of economic reality. This leads us to remain
relatively defensive, holding cash and reserves of about 20% and avoiding the more
speculative stocks that are currently leading the market.
Portfolio Review
Optimism
about the economy has given many of our stocks a boost, well in advance of a recovery in
their earnings. Hilton, Host Marriott, Extended Stay, and Park Place (soon to be renamed
Caesars) are up over 50% off their lows on the expectation that business and leisure
travelers will resume their historical travel patterns. We believe they will, but current
stock prices probably fully reflect 2004 (or 2005) earnings expectations. While Archstone
and Avalon Bay (apartments) and Vornado (office and commercial) have suffered
(temporarily) from recession-depressed rents and occupancies, their stock prices have
been supported by their very attractive dividend yields. Other stocks that were
particularly depressed because of liquidity issues (Charter and Qwest), competitive fears
and operational problems (Safeway), liquidity and accounting issues (Interpublic and
Western Resources) have recovered nicely from their lows and are no longer the bargains
they were. In short, the steep market recovery from last Octobers lows which has
given us a trailing 12-month return of +25.6% has brought many of our stocks in line with
their underlying business values. This is okay as long as the business values are growing
(and we believe they are), but it means that our expectations for the next few quarters
are modest.
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