September 30, 2005, partially offset by a decrease of $992.7 million in the average balance of total interest-bearing liabilities to $20.33 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $21.32 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2005.
Interest expense on deposits increased $71.5 million to $275.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $203.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to an increase in the average cost of total deposits to 2.83% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from 2.16% for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, coupled with an increase of $389.5 million in the average balance of total deposits.
Interest expense on certificates of deposit increased $47.8 million to $230.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $183.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to an increase in the average cost to 4.09% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from 3.46% for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, coupled with an increase of $459.0 million in the average balance. During the nine months ended September 30, 2006, $4.76 billion of certificates of deposit, with a weighted average rate of 3.58% and a weighted average maturity at inception of eighteen months, matured and $4.69 billion of certificates of deposit were issued or repriced, with a weighted average rate of 4.83% and a weighted average maturity at inception of twelve months. Interest expense on Liquid CDs increased $26.6 million to $32.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $6.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to an increase of $693.9 million in the average balance, coupled with an increase in the average cost to 4.43% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from 2.78% for the nine months ended September 30, 2005.
Interest expense on borrowings for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 decreased $8.8 million to $234.5 million, from $243.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, resulting from a decrease of $1.38 billion in the average balance, partially offset by an increase in the average cost to 4.24% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from 3.70% for the nine months ended September 30, 2005.
The principal reasons for the changes in the average costs and average balances of the various liabilities noted above for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 are consistent with the principal reasons for the changes noted for the three months ended September 30, 2006, previously discussed.
During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005, no provision for loan losses was recorded. The allowance for loan losses totaled $79.9 million at September 30, 2006 and $81.2 million at December 31, 2005. We believe our allowance for loan losses has been established and maintained at levels that reflect the risks inherent in our loan portfolio, giving consideration to the composition and size of our loan portfolio, our charge-off experience and our non-accrual and non-performing loans. The composition of our loan portfolio has remained consistent over the last several years. At September 30, 2006, our loan portfolio was comprised of 68% one-to-four family mortgage loans, 20% multi-family mortgage loans, 8% commercial real estate loans and 4% other loan categories. Our non-performing loans continue to remain at low levels relative to the size of our loan portfolio. Our non-performing loans, which are comprised primarily of mortgage loans, decreased $9.9 million to $55.1 million, or 0.37% of total loans, at September 30, 2006, from $65.0 million, or 0.45% of total loans, at December 31, 2005. This decrease was primarily due to a reduction in non-performing multi-family mortgage loans as five such loans, totaling $11.7 million, were brought current by the borrowers during
the 2006 first quarter and returned to performing status, coupled with the sale of certain non-performing loans during the three months ended September 30, 2006 totaling $10.1 million. There were no non-performing loans held for sale at September 30, 2006.
We review our allowance for loan losses on a quarterly basis. Material factors considered during our quarterly review are our historical loss experience and the impact of current economic conditions. Our net charge-off experience was three basis points of average loans outstanding, annualized, for the three months ended September 30, 2006 and was one basis point of average loans outstanding, annualized, for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005. Net loan charge-offs totaled $1.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, compared to $472,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2005, and $1.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to $711,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. The increase in net charge-offs for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005, was primarily due to a $947,000 charge-off in the 2006 third quarter related to a non-performing multi-family loan in foreclosure which was sold. While the charge-off related to that loan caused our net charge-off experience in the 2006 third quarter to increase somewhat, it did not impact our charge-off experience for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, which remained consistent with our past experience at one basis point of average loans outstanding, annualized. As previously discussed, there has been a slow down in the housing market, particularly during the 2006 third quarter. We are closely monitoring the local and national real estate markets and other factors related to the risks inherent in the loan portfolio. Based on our evaluation of the foregoing factors, our 2006 analyses did not indicate that a change in our allowance for loan losses at September 30, 2006 was warranted.
The allowance for loan losses as a percentage of non-performing loans increased to 145.16% at September 30, 2006, from 124.81% at December 31, 2005, primarily due to the decrease in non-performing loans from December 31, 2005 to September 30, 2006. The allowance for loan losses as a percentage of total loans was 0.54% at September 30, 2006 and 0.56% at December 31, 2005. For further discussion of the methodology used to evaluate the allowance for loan losses, see “Critical Accounting Policies” and for further discussion of non-performing loans, see “Asset Quality.”
Non-Interest Income
Non-interest income for the three months ended September 30, 2006 decreased $5.5 million to $22.9 million, from $28.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to decreases in mortgage banking income, net, customer service fees and other loan fees. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, non-interest income decreased $8.1 million to $67.5 million, from $75.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to decreases in other non-interest income, mortgage banking income, net, and other loan fees.
Mortgage banking income, net, which includes loan servicing fees, net gain on sales of loans, amortization of MSR and valuation allowance adjustments for the impairment of MSR, decreased $3.5 million to $181,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $3.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, mortgage banking income, net, decreased $1.3 million to $3.8 million, from $5.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. These decreases were primarily due to provisions recorded and/or decreases in the recovery of the valuation allowance for the impairment of MSR and decreases in the net gain on sales of loans, partially offset by decreases in amortization of MSR.
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We recorded a provision in the valuation allowance for the impairment of MSR of $495,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006 and a recovery of $1.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006. The provision recorded for the three months ended September 30, 2006 reflects the decrease in medium- and long-term interest rates during the quarter ended September 30, 2006. The recovery recorded for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 was primarily due to a decrease in projected loan prepayment speeds as of September 30, 2006, which was a result of the increase in interest rates at September 30, 2006 compared to December 31, 2005. We recorded recoveries in the valuation allowance for the impairment of MSR of $2.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005 and $2.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. The recoveries recorded for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005 were primarily due to a decrease in projected loan prepayment speeds as of September 30, 2005, which was a result of the increase in interest rates at September 30, 2005 compared to both June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004.
Net gain on sales of loans decreased $646,000 to $468,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $1.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005 and $1.0 million to $1.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $2.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to a reduction in the volume of loans sold. Amortization of MSR decreased $464,000 to $865,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $1.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005 and $1.4 million to $2.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $4.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to the increase in interest rates from the prior year resulting in lower levels of mortgage refinance activity in 2006. For additional information on our MSR, see “Critical Accounting Policies.”
Other loan fees decreased $414,000 to $983,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $1.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005, and decreased $888,000 to $2.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $3.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. These decreases were primarily related to the outsourcing of our mortgage loan servicing activities effective December 1, 2005.
Customer service fees decreased $1.6 million to $16.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $17.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to decreases in insufficient fund fees related to transaction accounts, ATM fees and other checking charges.
Other non-interest income decreased $5.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to a $5.5 million charge for the termination of our interest rate swap agreements in the 2006 first quarter.
Non-Interest Expense
Non-interest expense decreased $4.6 million to $53.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $57.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to decreases in compensation and benefits expense and other expense. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, non-interest expense decreased $11.2 million to $164.8 million, from $176.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to decreases in compensation and benefits expense, other expense and advertising expense, partially offset by an increase in occupancy, equipment and systems expense.
Compensation and benefits expense decreased $3.5 million, to $27.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $31.1 million for the three months ended September
39
30, 2005, and decreased $5.4 million to $86.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $91.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. These decreases were primarily due to decreases in salary expense and estimated corporate bonuses, partially offset by stock-based compensation cost recognized in 2006, reflecting our adoption of SFAS No. 123(R) effective January 1, 2006. The decrease in salary expense is primarily due to the combined effect of costs of $1.3 million incurred during the 2005 third quarter associated with the outsourcing of our mortgage loan servicing activities and the resulting cost savings realized during 2006, partially offset by normal performance increases during 2006 for officers and staff. During 2006, we recognized stock-based compensation cost related to restricted stock and stock options granted to select officers in December 2005 and stock options granted to outside directors in January 2006. See Note 3 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I, Item 1, “Financial Statements (Unaudited),” for further discussion of the impact of our adoption of SFAS No. 123(R).
Other expense decreased $1.3 million to $7.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, from $8.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005, and decreased $5.2 million to $22.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $27.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. These decreases were primarily due to decreased legal fees and various one-time charges totaling $581,000 in the 2005 third quarter related to the previously discussed outsourcing of our mortgage loan servicing activities. The decrease in legal fees was primarily the result of the completion of the trial phase of the LISB goodwill litigation in the first half of 2005, coupled with a reimbursement of $850,000 for certain legal fees in the 2006 third quarter related to the New York State Attorney General’s investigation related to Independent Financial Marketing Group, Inc., or IFMG, and its related entities. See Note 5 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I, Item 1, “Financial Statements (Unaudited),” for further discussion of the goodwill litigation and see Part II, Item 1, “Legal Proceedings,” for further discussion of the New York State Attorney General’s investigation related to IFMG and its related entities.
Advertising expense decreased $1.8 million to $5.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $7.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to the introduction of a business banking marketing campaign in the 2005 first quarter, which was not repeated in 2006. Occupancy, equipment and systems expense increased $1.4 million to $49.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, from $47.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, primarily due to an increase in data processing charges resulting from the outsourcing of our mortgage loan servicing activities.
Our percentage of general and administrative expense to average assets was 0.98% for the three months ended September 30, 2006 and 1.00% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to 1.02% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005. The efficiency ratio, which represents general and administrative expense divided by the sum of net interest income plus non-interest income, was 46.96% for the three months ended September 30, 2006 and 44.43% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to 39.42% for the three months ended September 30, 2005 and 39.93% for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. The increases in the efficiency ratios for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005, were primarily due to the decreases in net interest income and non-interest income, partially offset by the decreases in general and administrative expense, previously discussed.
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Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense totaled $19.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, representing an effective tax rate of 31.8%, and $68.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, representing an effective tax rate of 33.2%. Income tax expense totaled $29.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005 and $88.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, representing an effective tax rate of 33.5% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005. The decrease in the effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2006 was primarily the result of a decrease in pre-tax book income without any significant change in the level of tax-exempt income.
Asset Quality
One of our key operating objectives has been and continues to be to maintain a high level of asset quality. Our concentration on one-to-four family mortgage lending and the maintenance of sound credit standards for new loan originations have resulted in our maintaining a low level of non-performing assets relative to the size of our loan portfolio. Through a variety of strategies, including, but not limited to, aggressive collection efforts and marketing of non-performing loans and foreclosed properties, we have been proactive in addressing problem and non-performing assets which, in turn, has helped to maintain the strength of our financial condition.
Non-Performing Assets
The following table sets forth information regarding non-performing assets at the dates indicated.
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| | At September 30, | | At December 31, | |
(Dollars in Thousands) | | 2006 | | 2005 | |
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Non-accrual delinquent mortgage loans (1) | | | $ | 53,672 | | | | $ | 64,351 | | |
Non-accrual delinquent consumer and other loans | | | | 889 | | | | | 500 | | |
Mortgage loans delinquent 90 days or more and still accruing interest (2) | | | | 502 | | | | | 176 | | |
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Total non-performing loans | | | | 55,063 | | | | | 65,027 | | |
Real estate owned, net (3) | | | | 425 | | | | | 1,066 | | |
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Total non-performing assets | | | $ | 55,488 | | | | $ | 66,093 | | |
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Non-performing loans to total loans | | | | 0.37 | % | | | | 0.45 | % | |
Non-performing loans to total assets | | | | 0.25 | | | | | 0.29 | | |
Non-performing assets to total assets | | | | 0.26 | | | | | 0.30 | | |
Allowance for loan losses to non-performing loans | | | | 145.16 | | | | | 124.81 | | |
Allowance for loan losses to total loans | | | | 0.54 | | | | | 0.56 | | |
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(1) | Includes multi-family and commercial real estate loans totaling $14.1 million at September 30, 2006 and $28.6 million at December 31, 2005. |
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(2) | Mortgage loans delinquent 90 days or more and still accruing interest consist solely of loans delinquent 90 days or more as to their maturity date but not their interest due. |
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(3) | Real estate acquired as a result of foreclosure or by deed in lieu of foreclosure is recorded at the lower of cost or fair value, less estimated selling costs. |
Non-performing loans, the most significant component of non-performing assets, decreased $9.9 million to $55.1 million at September 30, 2006, from $65.0 million at December 31, 2005. As previously discussed, this decrease was primarily due to a reduction in non-
41
performing multi-family mortgage loans as five such loans, totaling $11.7 million, were brought current by the borrowers during the 2006 first quarter and returned to performing status, coupled with the sale of certain non-performing loans during the three months ended September 30, 2006 totaling $10.1 million. At September 30, 2006, non-performing multi-family loans totaled $11.6 million and non-performing one-to-four family mortgage loans totaled $39.6 million. Our non-performing loans continue to remain at low levels relative to the size of our loan portfolio. The ratio of non-performing loans to total loans decreased to 0.37% at September 30, 2006, from 0.45% at December 31, 2005. Our ratio of non-performing assets to total assets decreased to 0.26% at September 30, 2006, from 0.30% at December 31, 2005.
We discontinue accruing interest on mortgage loans when such loans become 90 days delinquent as to their interest due, even though in some instances the borrower has only missed two payments. At September 30, 2006, $19.8 million of mortgage loans classified as non-performing had missed only two payments, compared to $28.1 million at December 31, 2005. We discontinue accruing interest on consumer and other loans when such loans become 90 days delinquent as to their payment due. In addition, we reverse all previously accrued and uncollected interest through a charge to interest income. While loans are in non-accrual status, interest due is monitored and income is recognized only to the extent cash is received until a return to accrual status is warranted.
If all non-accrual loans at September 30, 2006 and 2005 had been performing in accordance with their original terms, we would have recorded interest income, with respect to such loans, of $2.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and $1.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. This compares to actual payments recorded as interest income, with respect to such loans, of $1.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and $903,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2005.
In addition to the non-performing loans, we had $815,000 of potential problem loans at September 30, 2006, compared to $813,000 at December 31, 2005. Such loans are 60-89 days delinquent as shown in the following table.
Delinquent Loans
The following table shows a comparison of delinquent loans at the dates indicated.
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| | At September 30, 2006 | | At December 31, 2005 | |
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| | 60-89 Days | | 90 Days or More | | 60-89 Days | | 90 Days or More | |
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(Dollars in Thousands) | | Number of Loans | | Amount | | Number of Loans | | Amount | | Number of Loans | | Amount | | Number of Loans | | Amount | |
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Mortgage loans: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
One-to-four family | | | 2 | | $ | 224 | | | 153 | | $ | 39,603 | | | 6 | | $ | 174 | | | 152 | | $ | 35,727 | |
Multi-family | | | — | | | — | | | 16 | | | 11,595 | | | 1 | | | 101 | | | 26 | | | 26,256 | |
Commercial real estate | | | — | | | — | | | 6 | | | 2,976 | | | — | | | — | | | 6 | | | 2,544 | |
Consumer and other loans | | | 32 | | | 591 | | | 37 | | | 889 | | | 47 | | | 538 | | | 47 | | | 500 | |
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Total delinquent loans | | | 34 | | $ | 815 | | | 212 | | $ | 55,063 | | | 54 | | $ | 813 | | | 231 | | $ | 65,027 | |
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Delinquent loans to total loans | | | | | | 0.01 | % | | | | | 0.37 | % | | | | | 0.01 | % | | | | | 0.45 | % |
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Allowance for Loan Losses
The following table sets forth the change in our allowance for losses on loans for the nine months ended September 30, 2006.
| | | (In Thousands) | |
Balance at December 31, 2005 | | $ | 81,159 | |
Provision charged to operations | | | — | |
Charge-offs: | | | | |
One-to-four family | | | (78 | ) |
Multi-family | | | (967 | ) |
Commercial real estate | | | (197 | ) |
Consumer and other loans | | | (263 | ) |
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Total charge-offs | | | (1,505 | ) |
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Recoveries: | | | | |
One-to-four family | | | 28 | |
Consumer and other loans | | | 248 | |
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Total recoveries | | | 276 | |
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Net charge-offs | | | (1,229 | ) |
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Balance at September 30, 2006 | | $ | 79,930 | |
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ITEM 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk |
As a financial institution, the primary component of our market risk is interest rate risk, or IRR. The objective of our IRR management policy is to maintain an appropriate mix and level of assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items to enable us to meet our earnings and/or growth objectives, while maintaining specified minimum capital levels as required by the OTS, in the case of Astoria Federal, and as established by our Board of Directors. We use a variety of analyses to monitor, control and adjust our asset and liability positions, primarily interest rate sensitivity gap analysis, or gap analysis, and net interest income sensitivity, or NII sensitivity, analysis. Additional IRR modeling is done by Astoria Federal in conformity with OTS requirements.
Gap Analysis
Gap analysis measures the difference between the amount of interest-earning assets anticipated to mature or reprice within specific time periods and the amount of interest-bearing liabilities anticipated to mature or reprice within the same time periods. The following table, referred to as the Gap Table, sets forth the amount of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities outstanding at September 30, 2006 that we anticipate will reprice or mature in each of the future time periods shown using certain assumptions based on our historical experience and other market-based data available to us. As indicated in the Gap Table, our one-year cumulative gap at September 30, 2006 was negative 16.79%. This compares to a one-year cumulative gap of negative 6.79% at December 31, 2005. The change in our one-year cumulative gap is primarily attributable to an increase in Liquid CDs and certificates of deposit, coupled with a decrease in projected securities prepayments.
The Gap Table does not indicate the impact of general interest rate movements on our net interest income because the actual repricing dates of various assets and liabilities will differ from our estimates and it does not give consideration to the yields and costs of the assets and liabilities or the projected yields and costs to replace or retain those assets and liabilities. Callable features of certain assets and liabilities, in addition to the foregoing, may also cause actual experience to vary from that indicated. We have $2.53 billion of borrowings which are callable within the next twelve months and at various times thereafter. In the Gap Table, callable borrowings are classified according to their maturity dates, which is reflective of our experience through September 30, 2006.
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| | At September 30, 2006 | |
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(Dollars in Thousands) | | One Year or Less | | More than One Year to Three Years | | More than Three Years to Five Years | | More than Five Years | | Total | |
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Interest-earning assets: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage loans (1) | | $ | 4,184,989 | | $ | 5,457,421 | | $ | 4,126,550 | | $ | 390,767 | | $ | 14,159,727 | |
Consumer and other loans (1) | | | 419,039 | | | 21,987 | | | 9,011 | | | — | | | 450,037 | |
Repurchase agreements | | | 54,660 | | | — | | | — | | | — | | | 54,660 | |
Securities available-for-sale | | | 196,516 | | | 672,879 | | | 631,184 | | | 195,864 | | | 1,696,443 | |
Securities held-to-maturity | | | 1,047,324 | | | 2,012,829 | | | 925,917 | | | 1,919 | | | 3,987,989 | |
FHLB-NY stock | | | — | | | — | | | — | | | 139,349 | | | 139,349 | |
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Total interest-earning assets | | | 5,902,528 | | | 8,165,116 | | | 5,692,662 | | | 727,899 | | | 20,488,205 | |
Net unamortized purchase premiums and deferred costs (2) | | | 27,806 | | | 30,816 | | | 24,145 | | | 2,185 | | | 84,952 | |
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Net interest-earning assets (3) | | | 5,930,334 | | | 8,195,932 | | | 5,716,807 | | | 730,084 | | | 20,573,157 | |
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Interest-bearing liabilities: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Savings | | | 281,642 | | | 469,446 | | | 469,446 | | | 989,001 | | | 2,209,535 | |
Money market | | | 211,846 | | | 131,256 | | | 131,256 | | | 4,574 | | | 478,932 | |
NOW and demand deposit | | | 102,367 | | | 204,738 | | | 204,738 | | | 954,882 | | | 1,466,725 | |
Liquid CDs | | | 1,402,562 | | | — | | | — | | | — | | | 1,402,562 | |
Certificates of deposit | | | 4,811,573 | | | 2,274,170 | | | 514,624 | | | 18,885 | | | 7,619,252 | |
Borrowings, net | | | 2,747,855 | | | 3,398,773 | | | 99,237 | | | 578,494 | | | 6,824,359 | |
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Total interest-bearing liabilities | | | 9,557,845 | | | 6,478,383 | | | 1,419,301 | | | 2,545,836 | | | 20,001,365 | |
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Interest sensitivity gap | | | (3,627,511 | ) | | 1,717,549 | | | 4,297,506 | | | (1,815,752 | ) | $ | 571,792 | |
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Cumulative interest sensitivity gap | | $ | (3,627,511 | ) | $ | (1,909,962 | ) | $ | 2,387,544 | | $ | 571,792 | | | | |
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Cumulative interest sensitivity gap as a percentage of total assets | | | (16.79 | )% | | (8.84 | )% | | 11.05 | % | | 2.65 | % | | | |
Cumulative net interest-earning assets as a percentage of interest-bearing liabilities | | | 62.05 | % | | 88.09 | % | | 113.68 | % | | 102.86 | % | | | |
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(1) | Mortgage loans and consumer and other loans include loans held-for-sale and exclude non-performing loans and the allowance for loan losses. |
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(2) | Net unamortized purchase premiums and deferred costs are prorated. |
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(3) | Includes securities available-for-sale at amortized cost. |
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NII Sensitivity Analysis |
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In managing IRR, we also use an internal income simulation model for our NII sensitivity analyses. These analyses measure changes in projected net interest income over various time periods resulting from hypothetical changes in interest rates. The interest rate scenarios most commonly analyzed reflect gradual and reasonable changes over a specified time period, which is typically one year. The base net interest income projection utilizes similar assumptions as those reflected in the Gap Table, assumes that cash flows are reinvested in similar assets and liabilities and that interest rates as of the reporting date remain constant over the projection period. For each alternative interest rate scenario, corresponding changes in the cash flow and repricing assumptions of each financial instrument are made to determine the impact on net interest income. |
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Assuming the entire yield curve was to increase 200 basis points, through quarterly parallel increments of 50 basis points and remain at that level thereafter, our projected net interest income for the twelve month period beginning October 1, 2006 would decrease by approximately 9.20% from the base projection. At December 31, 2005, in the up 200 basis point scenario, our projected net interest income for the twelve month period beginning January 1, 2006 would have decreased by approximately 5.94% from the base projection. |
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Assuming the entire yield curve was to decrease 200 basis points, through quarterly parallel decrements of 50 basis points, and remain at that level thereafter, our projected net interest income for the twelve month period beginning October 1, 2006 would increase by approximately 4.92% from the base projection. At December 31, 2005, in the down 200 basis point scenario, our projected net interest income for the twelve month period beginning January 1, 2006 would have increased by approximately 2.12% from the base projection. As previously discussed, we have $2.53 billion of borrowings which are callable within the next twelve months and at various times thereafter. In the September 30, 2006 NII sensitivity analysis, we have assumed in the up 200 basis point scenario that these borrowings will be called and refinanced, whereas in the comparable December 31, 2005 analysis we assumed that these borrowings would not be called.
Various shortcomings are inherent in both the Gap Table and NII sensitivity analyses. Certain assumptions may not reflect the manner in which actual yields and costs respond to market changes. Similarly, prepayment estimates and similar assumptions are subjective in nature, involve uncertainties and, therefore, cannot be determined with precision. Changes in interest rates may also affect our operating environment and operating strategies as well as those of our competitors. In addition, certain adjustable rate assets have limitations on the magnitude of rate changes over specified periods of time. Accordingly, although our NII sensitivity analyses may provide an indication of our IRR exposure, such analyses are not intended to and do not provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in market interest rates on our net interest income and our actual results will differ. Additionally, certain assets, liabilities and items of income and expense which may be affected by changes in interest rates, albeit to a much lesser degree, and which do not affect net interest income, are excluded from this analysis. These include income from bank owned life insurance and changes in the fair value of MSR. With respect to these items alone, and assuming the entire yield curve was to increase 200 basis points, through quarterly parallel increments of 50 basis points, and remain at that level thereafter, our projected net income for the twelve month period beginning October 1, 2006 would increase by approximately $4.0 million. Conversely, assuming the entire yield curve was to decrease 200 basis points, through quarterly parallel decrements of 50 basis points, and remain at that level thereafter, our projected net income for the twelve month period beginning October 1, 2006 would decrease by approximately $8.7 million with respect to these items alone.
For further information regarding our market risk and the limitations of our gap analysis and NII sensitivity analysis, see Part II, Item 7A, “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk,” included in our 2005 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
ITEM 4. Controls and Procedures
George L. Engelke, Jr., our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Monte N. Redman, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, conducted an evaluation of our disclosure controls and procedures, as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Exchange Act, as of September 30, 2006. Based upon their evaluation, they each found that our disclosure controls and procedures were effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed in the reports we file and submit under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported as and when required and that such information is accumulated and communicated to our management as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.
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There were no changes in our internal controls over financial reporting that occurred during the three months ended September 30, 2006 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.
PART II - OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 1. Legal Proceedings
In the ordinary course of our business, we are routinely made defendant in or a party to a number of pending or threatened legal actions or proceedings which, in some cases, seek substantial monetary damages from or other forms of relief against us. In our opinion, after consultation with legal counsel, we believe it unlikely that such actions or proceedings will have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or liquidity.
As previously discussed, we are a party to two actions pending against the United States, involving assisted acquisitions made in the early 1980’s and supervisory goodwill accounting utilized in connection therewith, which could result in a gain.
On September 15, 2005, the Court rendered a decision in the LISB goodwill litigation awarding us $435.8 million in damages from the U.S. government. On December 14, 2005, the United States filed an appeal of such award. The appeal is currently pending in the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. Oral arguments for the appeal were completed in October 2006. No assurance can be given as to the timing, content or ultimate outcome of any such appeal. See Note 5 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I, Item 1, “Financial Statements (Unaudited),” for further discussion of the LISB goodwill litigation.
The other action is entitledAstoria Federal Savings and Loan Association vs. United States. The Court, on August 22, 2006, denied the U.S. government’s motion for summary judgment related to damages. The Court has scheduled the trial of this action to commence on April 19, 2007.
The ultimate outcomes of the two actions pending against the United States and the timing of such outcomes are uncertain and there can be no assurance that we will benefit financially from such litigation.
On or about February 24, 2005, the Attorney General of the State of New York, or the Attorney General, served on Astoria Federal a subpoenaduces tecum, or the Subpoena, seeking documents and information concerning, among other things, our contractual relationship with IFMG, IFMG Securities, Inc. and IFS Agencies, Inc., and the marketing and sale of Alternative Investment Products (i.e., financial products that are not bank instruments insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). On several occasions thereafter in 2005 and 2006, the Attorney General supplemented the Subpoena with requests for additional documents and information.
On July 13, 2006, the SEC issued an order instituting administrative and cease-and-desist proceedings, making findings, and imposing remedial sanctions and a cease-and-desist order against IFMG Securities, Inc. for failing to disclose adequately material information to its customers in the offer and sale of mutual fund shares and variable insurance products. The SEC simultaneously accepted IFMG Securities, Inc.’s offer of settlement, in which IFMG Securities, Inc. consented to the entry of the order without admitting or denying the findings contained therein.
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Our contractual arrangements with IFMG and its related entities impose on them compliance, disclosure and oversight-related obligations in connection with their sale of Alternative Investment Products to our customers at our branch locations. In this regard, we believe we are in full compliance with the Interagency Statement on Retail Sales of Nondeposit Investment Products issued by the federal bank regulatory authorities and Part 536 of the OTS Regulations regarding Consumer Protection in the Sale of Insurance. As a result of the contractual agreements we have with IFMG and its related entities, we believe we will be entitled to indemnification from IFMG, IFMG Securities, Inc. and/or IFS Agencies, Inc. should proceedings be commenced against us with respect to these matters. During the quarter ended September 30, 2006, in connection with our extension and renegotiation of our relationship with IFMG and its related entities, IFMG reimbursed us for $850,000 in legal fees and costs incurred by us to date in connection with the Attorney General’s investigation.
Neither the Company nor Astoria Federal was contacted by the SEC in connection with its investigation of or settlement with IFMG Securities, Inc. We are cooperating with the Attorney General’s inquiry. No charges of wrongdoing on our part in connection with the sale of Alternative Investment Products have been filed by the Attorney General against us. Given the current status of the inquiry, no assurance can be given as to when the inquiry may be concluded, the ultimate result of the inquiry or any potential impact on our financial condition or results of operations.
In 2004, an action entitledDavid McAnaney and Carolyn McAnaney, individually and on behalf of all others similarly situated vs. Astoria Financial Corporation, et al. was commenced in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York. The action, commenced as a punitive class action, alleges that in connection with the satisfaction of certain mortgage loans made by Astoria Federal, The Long Island Savings Bank, FSB, which was acquired by Astoria Federal in 1998, and their related entities, customers were charged attorney document preparation fees, recording fees and facsimile fees allegedly in violation of the federal Truth in Lending Act, the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, or RESPA, the Fair Debt Collection Act, or FDCA, the New York State Deceptive Practices Act, and alleging unjust enrichment and common law fraud.
Astoria Federal previously moved to dismiss the amended complaint, which motion was granted in part and denied in part, dismissing claims based on violations of RESPA and FDCA. The Court further determined that class certification would be considered prior to considering summary judgment. The Court, on September 19, 2006, granted the plaintiff’s motion for class certification. Astoria Federal has denied the claims set forth in the complaint. We currently do not believe this action will likely have a material adverse impact on our financial condition or results of operations. However, no assurance can be given at this time that this litigation will be resolved amicably, that this litigation will not be costly to defend, that this litigation will not have an impact on our financial condition or results of operations or that, ultimately, any such impact will not be material.
ITEM 1A. Risk Factors
Changes in interest rates may reduce our net income.
Our earnings depend largely on the relationship between the yield on our interest-earning assets, primarily our mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities, and the cost of our deposits and borrowings. This relationship, known as the interest rate spread, is subject to
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fluctuation and is affected by economic and competitive factors which influence market interest rates, the volume and mix of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, and the level of non-performing assets. Fluctuations in market interest rates affect customer demand for our products and services. We are subject to interest rate risk to the degree that our interest-bearing liabilities reprice or mature more slowly or more rapidly or on a different basis than our interest-earning assets.
In addition, the actual amount of time before mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities are repaid can be significantly impacted by changes in mortgage prepayment rates and market interest rates. Mortgage prepayment rates will vary due to a number of factors, including the regional economy in the area where the underlying mortgages were originated, seasonal factors, demographic variables and the assumability of the underlying mortgages. However, the major factors affecting prepayment rates are prevailing interest rates, related mortgage refinancing opportunities and competition.
Some of our borrowings contain features that would allow them to be called prior to their contractual maturity. This would generally occur during periods of rising interest rates. If this were to occur, we would need to either renew the borrowings at a potentially higher rate of interest, which would negatively impact our net interest income, or repay such borrowings. If we sell securities to fund the repayment of such borrowings, any decline in estimated market value with respect to the securities sold would be realized and could result in a loss upon such sale.
The FOMC’s policy of monetary tightening through seventeen consecutive Federal Funds rate increases from June 2004 through June 2006, resulted in a significant flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2005 and a flat-to-inverted yield curve throughout 2006. The pause in Federal Funds rate hikes since June 2006 has reversed the trend of rising U.S. Treasury yields and resulted in a further inversion of the yield curve throughout the quarter ended September 30, 2006. This continued pattern of interest yield curve inversion limits our growth opportunities and continues to put pressure on our net interest margin. As a result, we have continued to pursue our strategy of shrinking the balance sheet through a reduction in the securities and borrowings portfolios through normal cash flow, while emphasizing deposit and loan growth.
We expect the operating environment to remain very challenging as a result of the prolonged flat-to-inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve that continues to negatively impact our net interest margin and earnings and limits opportunities for profitable growth. We anticipate continued margin compression for the fourth quarter, although the magnitude of the compression should be less than the current quarter. Based on the external economic forecasting model we utilize, which as of October 2006 projected three 25 basis point reductions by the Federal Reserve in 2007 and a gradual flattening of the yield curve, we anticipate our net interest margin should remain relatively stable in 2007. We will, as a result, continue our strategy of shrinking the balance sheet through reductions in the securities and borrowings portfolios through normal cash flow, while we emphasize deposit and loan growth, all of which should continue to improve both the quality of the balance sheet and earnings. While growth opportunities remain limited, we will continue to focus on the repurchase of our stock as a desirable use of capital. These strategies should better position us to take advantage of more profitable asset growth opportunities when the yield curve steepens.
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Interest rates do and will continue to fluctuate, and we cannot predict future Federal Reserve Board actions or other factors that will cause rates to change. Accordingly, no assurance can be given that the yield curve will not remain inverted and that our net interest margin and net interest income will not remain under pressure in 2007.
Our results of operations are affected by economic conditions in the New York metropolitan area and other areas.
Our retail banking and a significant portion of our lending business (approximately 47% of our one-to-four family and 93% of our multi-family and commercial real estate mortgage loan portfolios at September 30, 2006) are concentrated in the New York metropolitan area, which includes New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. As a result of this geographic concentration, our results of operations largely depend upon economic conditions in this area as well as other areas.
Decreases in real estate values could adversely affect the value of property used as collateral for our loans. The average loan-to-value ratio of our mortgage loan portfolio is less than 65% based on current principal balances and original appraised values. However, no assurance can be given that the original appraised values are reflective of current market conditions. Adverse changes in the economy caused by inflation, recession, unemployment or other factors beyond our control may also have a negative effect on the ability of our borrowers to make timely loan payments, which would have an adverse impact on our earnings. Consequently, a deterioration in economic conditions, particularly in the New York metropolitan area, could have a material adverse impact on the quality of our loan portfolio, which could result in an increase in delinquencies, causing a decrease in our interest income as well as an adverse impact on our loan loss experience, causing an increase in our allowance for loan losses. Such a deterioration also could adversely impact the demand for our products and services, and, accordingly, our results of operations.
During the first half of 2006, the national and local real estate markets, although somewhat weaker than a year ago, continued to support new and existing home sales at reduced levels. There has been a slowdown in the housing market, particularly during the 2006 third quarter, both nationally and locally, as evidenced by reports of reduced levels of new and existing home sales, increasing inventories of houses on the market, stagnant to declining property values and an increase in the length of time houses remain on the market.
No assurance can be given that these conditions will improve or will not worsen or that such conditions will not result in a decrease in our interest income or an adverse impact on our loan losses.
We operate in a highly regulated industry, which limits the manner and scope of our business activities.
We are subject to extensive supervision, regulation and examination by the OTS and by the FDIC. As a result, we are limited in the manner in which we conduct our business, undertake new investments and activities and obtain financing. This regulatory structure is designed primarily for the protection of the deposit insurance funds and our depositors, and not to benefit our stockholders. This regulatory structure also gives the regulatory authorities extensive discretion in connection with their supervisory and enforcement activities and examination policies, including policies with respect to capital levels, the
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timing and amount of dividend payments, the classification of assets and the establishment of adequate loan loss reserves for regulatory purposes. In addition, we must comply with significant anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism laws. Government agencies have substantial discretion to impose significant monetary penalties on institutions which fail to comply with these laws.
On October 4, 2006, the OTS and other federal bank regulatory authorities published the Interagency Guidance on Nontraditional Mortgage Product Risks, or the Guidance. The Guidance describes sound practices for managing risk, as well as marketing, originating and servicing nontraditional mortgage products, which include, among other things, interest only loans. The Guidance sets forth supervisory expectations with respect to loan terms and underwriting standards, portfolio and risk management practices and consumer protection. For example, the Guidance indicates that originating interest only loans with reduced documentation is considered a layering of risk and that institutions are expected to demonstrate mitigating factors to support their underwriting decision and the borrower’s repayment capacity. Specifically, the Guidance indicates that a lender may accept a borrower’s statement as to the borrower’s income without obtaining verification only if there are mitigating factors that clearly minimize the need for direct verification of repayment capacity and that, for many borrowers, institutions should be able to readily document income.
Currently, we originate both interest only and interest only reduced documentation loans. We do not originate negative amortization or payment option loans. Reduced documentation loans include stated income, full asset, or SIFA, loans; stated income, stated asset, or SISA, loans; and Super Streamline loans. SIFA and SISA loans require a prospective borrower to complete a standard mortgage loan application while the Super Streamline product requires the completion of an abbreviated application and is in effect considered a “no documentation” loan. Each of these products requires the receipt of an appraisal of the real estate used as collateral for the mortgage loan and a credit report on the prospective borrower. The loans are priced according to our internal risk assessment of the loan giving consideration to the loan-to-value ratio, the potential borrower’s credit scores and various other credit criteria. SIFA loans require the verification of a potential borrower’s asset information on the loan application, but not the income information provided.
During the nine months ended September 30, 2006, originations of interest only loans totaled $1.47 billion, of which $1.28 billion were one-to-four family loans and $185.8 million were multi-family and commercial real estate loans. Included in the interest only one-to-four family loan originations for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 were $735.9 million of interest only reduced documentation loans. At September 30, 2006, our mortgage loan portfolio included $5.72 billion of one-to-four family interest only loans and $538.6 million of multi-family and commercial real estate interest only loans. Non-performing interest only loans totaled $8.8 million at September 30, 2006.
We are currently evaluating the Guidance to determine our compliance and whether or not we need to modify our risk management practices, underwriting guidelines or practices relating to communications with consumers. Therefore, at this time, we cannot predict the impact the Guidance may have, if any, on our loan origination volumes or our underwriting procedures in future periods.
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For a summary of other risk factors relevant to our operations, see Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” in our 2005 Annual Report on Form 10-K. There are no other material changes in risk factors relevant to our operations since December 31, 2005 except as discussed above.
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ITEM 2.Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds |
The following table sets forth the repurchases of our common stock by month during the three months ended September 30, 2006.
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Period | | Total Number of Shares Purchased | | Average Price Paid per Share | | Total Number of Shares Purchased as Part of Publicly Announced Plans | | Maximum Number of Shares that May Yet Be Purchased Under the Plans | |
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July 1, 2006 through July 31, 2006 | | 540,000 | | | $ | 29.94 | | 540,000 | | | 5,027,300 | | |
August 1, 2006 through August 31, 2006 | | 680,000 | | | $ | 30.20 | | 680,000 | | | 4,347,300 | | |
September 1, 2006 through September 30, 2006 | | 600,000 | | | $ | 31.07 | | 600,000 | | | 3,747,300 | | |
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Total | | 1,820,000 | | | $ | 30.41 | | 1,820,000 | | | | | |
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All of the shares repurchased during the three months ended September 30, 2006 were repurchased under our eleventh stock repurchase plan, approved by our Board of Directors on December 21, 2005, which authorized the purchase, at management’s discretion, of 10,000,000 shares, or approximately 10% of our common stock outstanding, over a two year period in open-market or privately negotiated transactions.
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ITEM 3.Defaults Upon Senior Securities |
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Not applicable. |
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ITEM 4.Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders |
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Not applicable. |
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ITEM 5.Other Information |
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Not applicable. |
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Exhibit No. | | Identification of Exhibit |
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31.1 | | Certifications of Chief Executive Officer. |
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31.2 | | Certifications of Chief Financial Officer. |
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32.1 | | Written Statement of Chief Executive Officer furnished pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, 18 U.S.C. Section 1350. Pursuant to SEC rules, this exhibit will not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act or otherwise subject to the liability of that section. |
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32.2 | | Written Statement of Chief Financial Officer furnished pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, 18 U.S.C. Section 1350. Pursuant to SEC rules, this exhibit will not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act or otherwise subject to the liability of that section. |
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
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| | | Astoria Financial Corporation |
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Dated: November 7, 2006 | | By: | /s/ | Monte N. Redman |
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| | | | Monte N. Redman |
| | | | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Accounting Officer) |
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Exhibit Index
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Exhibit No. | | Identification of Exhibit |
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31.1 | | Certifications of Chief Executive Officer. |
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31.2 | | Certifications of Chief Financial Officer. |
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32.1 | | Written Statement of Chief Executive Officer furnished pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, 18 U.S.C. Section 1350. Pursuant to SEC rules, this exhibit will not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act or otherwise subject to the liability of that section. |
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32.2 | | Written Statement of Chief Financial Officer furnished pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, 18 U.S.C. Section 1350. Pursuant to SEC rules, this exhibit will not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act or otherwise subject to the liability of that section. |
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