Teekay Tankers
As of April 1, 2019, Teekay Tankers’ fleet included 62 owned andchartered-in tankers (excluding sixship-to-ship transfer support vessels). Teekay Tankers also owns aship-to-ship transfer business that primarily provides lightering and reverse lightering services for crude oil imports into, and exports out of, the United States. As of April 1, 2019, Teekay Tankers’ fleet had a total cargo carrying capacity of approximately 8.5 million deadweight tonnes (or dwt).
In April 2019, Teekay Tankers received notice from the NYSE that Teekay Tankers is not in compliance with the NYSE continued listing standards because the average closing price of Teekay Tankers’ shares of Class A common stock fell below $1.00 per share over a period of 30 consecutive trading days. In accordance with NYSE procedures, Teekay Tankers intends to cure the $1.00 per share deficiency and has six months following receipt of the noncompliance notice to regain compliance with the NYSE continued listing requirement.
Teekay Offshore
As of April 1, 2019, Teekay Offshore had interests in eight FPSO units, 35 shuttle tankers (including six newbuilding shuttle tankers on order), six FSO units, one UMS and 10 long-distance towing and offshore installation vessels. Teekay Offshore’s ownership interests in these vessels range from 50% to 100%. Teekay Offshore’s large and diverse portfolio of long-term contracts represented $5.7 billion of contracted, forward fixed-rate revenues with a revenue-weighted average remaining contract duration of approximately four years as of January 1, 2019 (excluding options to extend).
In July 2018, Teekay Offshore entered into a contract with Petrobras to extend the employment of theRio das Ostras FPSO unit for four months until November 2018, with an option to extend to January 2019. In December 2018, Teekay Offshore entered into a further contract extension for two months until March 2019. The FPSO unit has now come off contract and is currently inlay-up.
In the last two years, Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG completed a significant portion of their growth projects and delivered $2.5 billion of gas newbuilding projects and $1.8 billion of offshore newbuilding/conversion projects, which are now contributing significant cash flows.
Industry overview
The following industry overview highlights recent trends and data relating to the principal markets in which we operate.
Liquefied gas shipping
According to Clarkson Research Services Limited (“Clarksons Research”), in 2018, global LNG exports increased by approximately 27 million metric tonnes per annum (or MTPA), or 9%, compared to 2017, which was the second consecutive year that global LNG exports increased by approximately 20 million MTPA or more. Global LNG export growth was particularly strong in the fourth quarter of 2018, driven by the ramp-up in new volumes from Russia, Australia and the United States. On the demand side, China continues to be the main driver, with imports growing by almost 40% in 2018, which represented over 50% of the total net increase in global LNG imports for 2018. According to Clarksons Research, in the fourth quarter of 2018, LNG carrier spot charter rates reached record highs for a 160,000 cubic meter (or cbm) diesel-electric LNG carrier with rates averaging approximately $149,000 per day, which was $80,000 per day higher than rates experienced in the same period of the prior year. This strength can be attributed to winter market seasonality, LNG export growth, tight LNG carrier supply and LNG carriers being used for floating storage (with a reported high of approximately 30 LNG carriers in floating storage in November 2018). According to Clarksons Research, LNG carrier spot charter rates reached a peak of $190,000 per day during the fourth quarter of 2018, which are the highest rates on record.
While LNG carrier spot charter rates have softened significantly in recent months as we have entered the shoulder season to approximately $50,000 per day as of March 22, 2019, according to Clarksons Research, we expect utilization and short-term charter rates to increase from current levels in the remainder of 2019 and into 2020 as a result of two years of expected strong LNG export growth in the U.S., Australia and Russia. According to Clarksons Research, during 2019 and 2020, LNG shipping tonne-mile demand is expected to grow by approximately 11% annually on average while the global LNG carrier fleet is expected to grow by approximately 6% annually on average.
In 2021 and into 2023, we expect that utilization and short-term LNG carrier charter rates may come under downward pressure as a result of the 77 LNG carrier newbuilding orders placed during 2018 and the early part of 2019, which are scheduled to deliver in 2021 and 2022 during what we expect will be a period of slower LNG export growth. We expect this weakness to be temporary as the next wave of LNG export projects is expected to commence operations starting in 2023. According to Wood Mackenzie, 2019 may be a record year for final investment decisions (“FIDs”) by developers of LNG export growth projects that are expected to commence operations in 2023 and 2024, with an estimated growth capacity of 60 million MTPA, almost triple the capacity of such projects subject to FIDs during 2018.
We believe that in the longer-term, the LNG industry will experience strong growth through 2040. According to BP plc’s 2019 Energy Outlook, LNG export growth is expected to more than double by 2040, mostly driven by North America, the Middle East, Africa and Russia, while Asia will remain the dominant driver of import growth. We believe this expected strong demand growth for LNG will lead to an increase in LNG trade and create significant demand for LNG shipping.
The LPG market continues to show signs of rebalancing and recovery, supported by low fleet growth and ongoing LPG trade growth. According to Clarksons Research, declining newbuild deliveries and record levels of scrapping resulted in low fleet growth of approximately 1.5% in 2018. In comparison, total LPG trade growth during 2018 increased by approximately 6% due to higher Middle East exports and strong demand in Europe.
This trend is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020 with forecasted LPG trade growth of around 6% per year according to Clarksons Research, driven by the start-up of new U.S. export capacity, which is expected to exceed low estimated fleet supply growth of between 2% and 3% per year. Accordingly, we expect fleet utilization and charter rates to gradually improve over the next two years across the LPG and petrochemical shipping markets.
Crude oil tankers
Crude tanker spot rates were at multi-year lows during the first half of 2018, as a result of the effect of OPEC supply cuts on tanker demand. However, the market appeared to reach an inflection point in the middle of 2018, as an increase in oil supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources, and a period of low fleet growth, allowed rates to recover.
Crude tanker spot rates improved significantly during the fourth quarter of 2018, spurred by both winter market seasonality and positive underlying supply and demand fundamentals. According to the International Energy Agency (“IEA”), during the fourth quarter of 2018, OPEC crude oil production rose to 33.0 million barrels per day (“mb/d”), the highest level since July 2017 and up from 32.0 mb/d earlier in 2018. Russian oil production reached a record high of 11.5 mb/d by the end of 2018, which was positive for mid-size tanker demand in the Mediterranean / Black Sea and Baltic Sea regions. Rising U.S. crude oil exports also supported crude tanker demand, with U.S. crude oil production reaching a record high 11.7 mb/d during the fourth quarter and crude oil exports reaching 2.5 mb/d according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). This was positive for both crude tanker demand, as well as lightering demand in the U.S. Gulf.
Crude tanker spot rates have weakened significantly through the first quarter of 2019, which is typical for this time of year as refineries enter into seasonal maintenance programs. OPEC supply cuts are also reducing crude tanker demand, as OPEC (and select non-OPEC partners) follow through on their pledge to cut production by 1.2 mb/d starting from January 2019. Early data suggests that OPEC is achieving a high compliance with these cuts. We expect the OPEC cuts to have a negative impact on crude tanker demand through the first half of 2019, although the oil market is reasonably well balanced and we believe OPEC will supply more oil to the market during the second half of 2019 when oil demand is expected to increase substantially compared with first half levels.
According to Clarksons Research, the global tanker fleet grew by just 6.2 million deadweight tonnes (or mdwt), or 1.1%, in 2018, which was the lowest level of tanker fleet growth since 2001. High tanker scrapping primarily contributed to low fleet growth during 2018, with a total of 20.8 mdwt removed, representing the fifth highest scrapping year on record. Looking ahead, we expect an increase in tanker fleet growth during 2019 as a firmer freight rate environment should lead to fewer vessels sold for scrap. We forecast total tanker fleet growth of approximately 3.8% during 2019, with much of this growth weighted towards the first half of the year. This would add downward pressure on the crude tanker market during the early part of 2019, although we forecast much lower total tanker fleet growth of less than 2% in the second half of 2019 and into 2020.
Global oil demand remains firm, with the IEA forecasting growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2019. In addition, we expect that tanker demand will be boosted in 2019 by an increase in global refining capacity. According to the IEA, a total of 2.6 mb/d of new refining capacity will come online in 2019, which is the largest annual increase on record. We expect this will contribute positively to both crude and product tanker demand. We also expect that the new IMO 2020 maritime Sulphur emissions regulations will be positive for tanker demand through an expected increase in refinery throughput. The new regulations could also open new trade patterns and arbitrage opportunities for both crude and product, which are expected to increase overall tonne-mile demand. Finally, we believe that an expected increase in U.S. crude exports during the second half of 2019 will be beneficial for both crude tanker demand and U.S. Gulf lightering demand. According to the IEA, new pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast is expected to lift U.S. crude exports from approximately 2.5 mb/d to approximately 4 mb/d by the end of 2019.
In sum, we believe that OPEC supply cuts, higher fleet growth, and the impact of seasonal refinery maintenance could weigh on tanker demand through the first half of 2019. However, we believe that the second half of 2019 and 2020 will be stronger due to underlying oil demand, an increase in U.S. crude oil exports, the return of OPEC crude oil supply, lower tanker fleet growth, and the positive impact of IMO 2020.
Offshore oil industry
Brent oil prices reached $86 per barrel in late 2018, the highest level since 2014, supported by OPEC cuts, production disruptions and potential sanctions. For 2018, Brent oil prices averaged $72 per barrel, a 31% increase over 2017. This increase in oil prices, coupled with a series of cost-cutting measures implemented over the past several years, has led to a significant increase in free cash flow for major oil companies and is leading to a renewed increase in offshore exploration and production activity. For 2019, Brent oil prices have averaged approximately $65 per barrel through April 23, 2019 and closed at $74 per barrel as of April 23, 2019.
After a low-point in 2016, approved offshore project capital expenditures (“CAPEX”) have been gradually recovering. Although the estimated CAPEX of newly approved projects was lower than expected in 2018, largely due to slippage of FIDs due to oil price volatility, tendering issues in Brazil, and political risk, we expect a return to a growth trend in 2019. According to Clarksons Research, approximately $20 billion of offshore field project CAPEX was approved in January 2019, and with further significant FIDs expected in 2019, Clarksons Research expects $89 billion of new offshore project CAPEX to be approved in 2019, which is approaching investment levels last achieved in 2014.
The improvement in oil prices since 2016 and offshore project break-even points is leading to a recovery in FPSO contract awards. After a year of no FPSO awards in 2016, a total of eight FPSO contracts were awarded in 2017 and six in 2018. This renewed level of contracting is expected to be maintained over the next few years. According to Clarksons Research, in the 2019 and 2020 period, there are 26 projects that could potentially result in an FPSO award, with 14 of these projects being considered as “probable” to reach an award in 2019 (although FID slippage and oil price volatility remain a significant risk). Projects in South America and West Africa are expected to be the main drivers of FPSO contracting. As of March 2019, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (“Petrobras”) had ongoing tenders for five FPSOs for projects in offshore Brazil, with all five currently scheduled to be awarded within 2019.
Demand for shuttle tankers is expected to improve in tandem with a strengthening offshore market and increased exploration and production spending by the oil majors. The North Sea market is relatively mature, with oil production from fields which use shuttle tankers as an export solution expected to remain relatively flat in the coming years. However, a push into the Barents Sea, which involves longer sailing distances, may add to shuttle tanker tonne-mile demand. In addition, significant replacement demand is expected in the North Sea as new vessels will be needed to replace vessels turning 20 years of age, which is the typical end-of-life age for shuttle tankers. Of the 31 vessels currently trading in the North Sea, 15 will reach age 20 over the next five years.
Offshore fields in the North Sea and Brazil generate the majority of global demand for shuttle tankers. According to Clarksons Research, 86 offshore fields that generate demand for shuttle tankers are currently in production, with 69 of these fields located in the North Sea or Brazil and the remaining 17 fields located in eastern Canada, the European Arctic, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern European Atlantic. Future new demand for shuttle tankers is also expected to be concentrated in the North Sea and Brazil. Six fields generating demand for shuttle tankers are currently in development in the North Sea and Brazil, with another 16 potential field developments expected to be sanctioned by the end of 2020.
Brazil is expected to be a major driver of shuttle tanker demand in coming years. According to Clarksons Research, there are currently 19 probable shuttle tanker orders linked to specific offshore projects expected to receive an FID within the next two years, with almost 70% of these projects located in Latin America. In the longer term, the continuing trend towards deep water projects further from shore, and the improved political situation in Brazil, also appear favorable for the shuttle tanker sector. According to Clarksons Research, total global offshore oil production averaged approximately 25.2 million barrels per day in the ten-year period between 2009 and 2018. In total, Clarksons Research projects that global offshore oil production may increase by more than 3.5 mb/d in the ten-year period between 2018 and 2028, reaching approximately 28.9 million barrels per day in 2028.
There can be no guarantee that any of the forecasted amounts provided above will materialize or that the actual amounts will not be materially different.
Risk Factors
We may not be able to generate sufficient cash to service all of our indebtedness, including the Notes, and may be forced to take other actions to satisfy the obligations under our indebtedness, which may not be successful.
Given volatility associated with our business and industry, our future cash flow may be insufficient to meet our debt obligations and other commitments. Any insufficiency could negatively impact our business. A range of economic, competitive, business and industry factors, including those beyond our control, will affect our future financial performance, and, as a result, our ability to generate cash flow from operations and to pay our debt obligations. If our cash flows and capital resources are insufficient to fund our debt service obligations and other commitments, we may be forced to reduce or delay planned investments and capital expenditures, or to sell assets, seek additional financing in the debt or equity markets or restructure or refinance our indebtedness, including the Notes. Our ability to restructure or refinance our indebtedness will depend on the condition of the capital markets and our financial condition at such time.
17