most important trading partners in terms of exports, respectively. In 2023, according to preliminary figures, exports to the United States, Panama, China and India, accounted for 26.4%, 9.3%, 5.0% and 4.8% of total exports, respectively, compared to 2022, during which exports to the United States, Panama, China and India, accounted for 26.1%, 10.3%, 3.8% and 4.0% of total exports, respectively. For more information, see “Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments—Foreign Trade,” “Monetary System—Foreign Exchange Rates and International Reserves” and “—Interest Rates and Inflation” in Colombia’s annual report on Form 18-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, filed with the SEC on September 20, 2023, (including all exhibits thereto), as amended from time to time (“2022 Annual Report”).
Emerging-market investment generally poses a greater degree of risk than investment in more mature market economies because the economies in the developing world are more susceptible to destabilization resulting from domestic and international developments.
A significant decline in the economies of any of Colombia’s major trading partners, such as the United States, the European Union or China could have a material adverse impact on Colombia’s balance of trade and adversely affect Colombia’s economic growth. In 2023, the United States accounted for 26.4% of Colombia’s total exports, Panama accounted for 9.3% of Colombia’s total exports and China accounted for 5.0% of Colombia’s total exports. A decline in United States, Panama or China demand for imports could have a material adverse effect on Colombian exports and Colombia’s economic growth. Continued outbreaks due to COVID-19 or a future pandemic and economic shutdown to combat such outbreaks in the United States and Europe could have a material adverse impact on Colombia’s exports and economic growth.
The occurrence of unusual weather conditions, epidemic or pandemic outbreaks (such as COVID-19), terrorist attacks, disruptive political events, including sanctions, embargoes and asset freezes, civil unrest, actual or threatened acts of war, escalation of current hostilities, including the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the current conflict in the Middle East, or any other military or trade disruptions, may adversely impact Colombia’s economy by causing, among other things, supply chain disruptions, market volatility, changes in commodity prices and shortages of raw materials. In addition, because international investors’ reactions to the events occurring in one emerging market country sometimes appear to demonstrate a “contagion” effect, in which an entire region or class of investments is disfavored by international investors, Colombia could be adversely affected by negative economic or financial developments in other emerging market countries. Colombia has been adversely affected by such contagion effects on a number of occasions, including following the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian financial crisis, the 1999 devaluation of the Brazilian real, the 2001 Argentine financial crisis, the global economic crisis that began in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar developments can be expected to affect the Colombian economy in the future.
There can be no assurance that any crises such as those described above or similar events will not negatively affect investor confidence in emerging markets or the economies of the principal countries in Latin America, including Colombia. In addition, there can be no assurance that these events will not adversely affect Colombia’s economy and its ability to raise capital in the external debt markets in the future. See “Forward-Looking Statements” in the accompanying prospectus.
There can be no assurance that Colombia’s credit ratings will improve or remain stable, or that they will not be downgraded, suspended or cancelled by the rating agencies.
Colombia’s long-term foreign currency rating from S&P Global Ratings (“S&P”) has been BB+ since May 19, 2021, last affirmed on January 18, 2024, with a revised negative outlook. Fitch Ratings, Inc. (“Fitch”) has maintained Colombia’s long-term foreign currency rating at BB+ with a stable outlook since July 1, 2021, last affirmed on December 7, 2023. Moody’s Investors Services Inc. (“Moody’s”) maintained Colombia’s long-term foreign currency rating at Baa2 since May 23, 2019, and on February 1, 2024, Moody’s affirmed Colombia’s long-term foreign currency rating at Baa2, with a stable outlook.
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