Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | Note C - Loss and Loss Expense Reserves Activity in the reserves for losses and loss expenses for the years ended December 31, 2019, 2018 and 2017 is summarized as follows. All amounts are shown net of reinsurance, unless otherwise indicated. 2019 2018 2017 Reserves, gross of reinsurance recoverable, at the beginning of the year $ 865,339 $ 680,274 $ 576,330 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses at the beginning of the year 375,935 308,143 251,563 Reserves at the beginning of the year 489,404 372,131 324,767 Provision for losses and loss expenses: Claims occurring during the current year 349,018 329,078 228,303 Claims occurring during prior years (550 ) 16,786 19,215 Total incurred losses and loss expenses 348,468 345,864 247,518 Loss and loss expense payments: Claims occurring during the current year 90,364 84,738 67,234 Claims occurring during prior years 157,508 143,853 132,920 Total paid 247,872 228,591 200,154 Reserves at the end of the year 590,000 489,404 372,131 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses at the end of the year 398,305 375,935 308,143 Reserves, gross of reinsurance recoverable, at the end of the year $ 988,305 $ 865,339 $ 680,274 The table above shows that a reserve savings of $550 developed during 2019 in the settlement of claims occurring on or before December 31, 2018, compared to reserve deficiencies of $16,786 in 2018 and $19,215 in 2017. The developments for each year are composed of individual claim savings and deficiencies which, in the aggregate, have resulted from the settlement of claims at amounts higher or lower than previously reserved and from changes in estimates of losses incurred but not reported as part of the normal reserving process. The $550 prior accident year savings that developed during 2019 related to favorable loss development in the Company's workers' compensation business, partially offset by unfavorable loss development in commercial automobile coverages. This 2019 savings compares to a deficiency of $16,786 for 2018 related to unfavorable loss development from commercial automobile coverages. This unfavorable loss development was the result of increased claim severity due to a more challenging litigation environment, as well as an unexpected increase in the time to settle claims leading to an unfavorable change in claim settlement patterns. The deficiency of $19,215 for 2017, also related to unfavorable loss development from commercial automobile coverages, particularly from severe transportation loss events that occurred primarily during the first six months of 2017 and higher than expected loss development for discontinued lines of business. Loss reserves have been reduced by estimated salvage and subrogation recoverable of approximately $4,000 and $7,545 at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. The following is information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2019, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of incurred‐but‐not‐reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims included within the net incurred claims amounts. Workers' Compensation Accident Year As of December 31, 2019 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Total of Incurred-but- Not- Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Number of Reported Claims Per Year For the Years Ended December 31 (2010-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 20,644 $ 20,111 $ 19,400 $ 19,300 $ 18,849 $ 18,344 $ 19,195 $ 19,541 $ 19,819 $ 19,781 $ 1,294 4,226 2011 26,057 26,628 26,958 26,767 25,515 27,293 26,617 26,631 26,452 2,085 4,547 2012 23,965 25,544 24,887 24,485 25,616 27,020 26,775 25,508 2,528 4,484 2013 27,619 30,638 29,913 32,121 32,553 31,131 31,066 3,596 5,281 2014 36,768 36,968 34,009 33,427 31,031 31,579 4,217 5,410 2015 26,277 23,115 25,889 24,948 25,436 3,916 6,328 2016 35,240 29,757 29,317 30,060 4,745 6,078 2017 42,387 37,731 36,211 7,936 16,349 2018 62,973 61,530 19,836 14,060 2019 65,837 34,680 8,515 Total $ 353,460 $ 84,833 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance 2019 For the Years Ended December 31 (2010-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 $ 3,974 $ 9,134 $ 11,963 $ 13,845 $ 14,966 $ 15,835 $ 16,590 $ 16,789 $ 17,062 $ 17,340 2011 4,916 11,912 15,973 18,884 20,617 21,622 22,569 22,991 23,366 2012 4,597 11,004 14,834 17,415 18,946 20,276 21,157 21,636 2013 4,880 12,792 18,065 21,655 23,643 24,968 25,847 2014 5,328 13,665 19,075 22,387 23,968 24,714 2015 2,918 10,128 15,020 17,487 19,385 2016 5,784 13,377 18,461 21,304 2017 6,150 15,811 20,863 2018 10,987 27,862 2019 13,171 Total $ 215,488 Outstanding liabilities prior to 2010, net of reinsurance 16,437 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 154,409 Commercial Liability Accident Year As of December 31, 2019 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Total of Incurred-but- Not- Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Number of Reported Claims Per Year For the Years Ended December 31 (2010-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 31,124 $ 22,161 $ 21,899 $ 19,139 $ 20,300 $ 19,764 $ 19,377 $ 19,081 $ 19,985 $ 19,994 $ 113 2,403 2011 46,829 43,832 31,633 36,894 35,805 37,122 36,076 37,852 37,795 32 2,902 2012 49,743 54,269 49,743 51,367 48,708 51,475 51,648 51,962 266 3,131 2013 53,817 39,143 37,701 36,371 46,690 48,857 51,598 546 3,751 2014 49,971 52,254 52,483 52,964 64,372 70,841 1,268 3,323 2015 61,420 70,174 64,323 71,088 75,503 2,211 3,197 2016 61,638 68,974 77,362 79,015 4,913 3,737 2017 103,126 103,611 99,287 19,772 5,364 2018 179,589 177,262 28,324 8,003 2019 198,022 98,371 7,286 Total $ 861,279 $ 155,816 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31 (2010-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) Accident Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 1,649 $ 7,166 $ 11,635 $ 16,052 $ 18,627 $ 18,517 $ 18,866 $ 18,662 $ 18,791 $ 18,791 2011 1,809 11,350 23,615 30,795 33,255 34,009 35,561 36,400 37,263 2012 3,086 23,252 32,942 45,303 47,601 50,036 50,750 50,882 2013 5,167 15,772 25,270 34,481 44,865 46,084 49,522 2014 4,023 9,046 28,393 45,075 57,692 68,392 2015 10,923 27,582 49,267 63,133 71,697 2016 6,843 30,377 52,764 70,324 2017 11,415 46,529 58,173 2018 18,689 66,575 2019 19,311 Total $ 510,930 Outstanding liabilities prior to 2010, net of reinsurance 4,799 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 355,148 Professional Liability Reinsurance Assumed (in runoff) Accident Year As of December 31, 2019 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Total of Incurred-but-Not- Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Number of Reported Claims Per Year For the Years Ended December 31 (2010-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 2,196 $ 4,277 $ 7,827 $ 7,946 $ 9,733 $ 10,740 $ 11,689 $ 11,893 $ 11,677 $ 11,544 $ 35 N/A 2011 10,492 8,314 9,017 9,859 10,779 12,735 12,744 12,725 13,018 15 N/A 2012 10,041 9,276 5,569 10,157 14,605 16,555 14,949 16,013 335 N/A 2013 14,370 13,034 11,618 17,694 23,256 22,213 23,474 1,362 N/A 2014 12,675 8,825 7,259 9,837 12,749 10,721 1,251 N/A 2015 11,638 7,859 7,147 10,422 8,753 2,741 N/A 2016 6,368 2,482 1,522 2,993 471 N/A 2017 – – – – N/A 2018 – – – N/A 2019 – – N/A Total $ 86,516 $ 6,210 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31 (2010-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 41 $ 729 $ 3,505 $ 5,844 $ 7,758 $ 9,904 $ 11,132 $ 11,334 $ 11,334 $ 11,410 2011 50 637 2,061 4,983 8,104 10,404 11,679 12,280 12,404 2012 103 992 2,388 5,077 8,355 11,239 13,091 13,706 2013 123 1,135 5,088 10,988 14,779 18,229 19,201 2014 723 761 2,241 3,999 6,627 7,732 2015 10 390 1,899 3,207 3,964 2016 – 5 99 2,254 2017 – – – 2018 – – 2019 – Total $ 70,671 Outstanding liabilities prior to 2010, net of reinsurance 234 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 16,079 Physical Damage (1) Accident Year As of December 31, 2019 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Total of Incurred-but-Not- Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Number of Reported Claims Per Year For the Years Ended December 31 (2017-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) 2017 2018 2019 2017 $ 48,440 $ 47,193 $ 46,236 $ 30 10,517 2018 – 53,726 50,122 234 11,108 2019 – 55,354 2,403 9,406 Total $ 151,712 $ 2,667 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31 (2017-2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) Accident Year 2017 2018 2019 2017 $ 39,517 $ 46,554 $ 46,184 2018 – 41,631 49,685 2019 – 44,197 Total $ 140,066 Outstanding liabilities prior to 2017, net of reinsurance 30 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 11,676 (1) The majority of physical damage claims settle within a two-year period. The triangles above have been abbreviated to reflect the short-tail nature of this business. The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for claims and claim adjustment expenses in the consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2019, 2018 and 2017 is as follows. 2019 2018 Net outstanding liabilities Commercial Liability $ 355,148 $ 268,523 Workers' Compensation 154,409 131,996 Physical Damage 11,676 13,329 Professional Liability Assumed 16,079 21,390 Other short-duration insurance lines 30,318 33,716 Liabilities for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 567,630 468,954 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims Commercial Liability 209,152 194,483 Workers' Compensation 182,908 172,869 Physical Damage 655 1,851 Other short-duration insurance lines 5,590 6,732 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses at the end of the year 398,305 375,935 Unallocated claims adjustment expenses 22,370 20,450 Total gross liability for unpaid claims and claims adjustment expense $ 988,305 $ 865,339 The following is supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2019: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Supplementary Information and Unaudited) Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Commercial Liability 9.0 % 25.8 % 23.5 % 21.0 % 10.4 % 4.7 % 3.5 % 0.4 % 1.5 % – Workers' Compensation 17.5 % 26.4 % 16.1 % 10.3 % 6.2 % 4.0 % 3.4 % 1.5 % 1.4 % 1.4 % Physical Damage 81.5 % 15.6 % 2.0 % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Professional Liability Assumed 1.5 % 4.1 % 13.4 % 26.6 % 18.1 % 15.6 % 8.8 % 3.3 % 4.4 % 0.7 % Reserve methodologies for incurred but not reported losses The Company uses both standard actuarial techniques common to most insurance companies as well as proprietary techniques developed by the Company in connection with its specialty business products. For its short-tail lines of The Company also uses the loss development factor approach for its long-tail lines of business, including workers' compensation. A minimum of 15 accident years is included in the loss development triangles used to calculate link ratios and the selected loss development factors used to determine the reserves for incurred but not reported losses. Significant emphasis is placed on the use of tail factors for the Company's long-tail lines of business. For the Company's commercial automobile risks, which are covered by regularly updated reinsurance agreements and which contain wide-ranging self-insured retentions ("SIR"), traditional actuarial methods are supplemented by other methods, as described below, in consideration of the Company's exposures to loss. In situations where the Company's reinsurance structure, the insured's SIR selections, policy volume, and other factors are changing, current accident period loss exposures may not be homogenous enough with historical loss data to allow for reliable projection of future developed losses. Therefore, the Company supplements the above-described actuarial methods with loss ratio reserving techniques developed from the Company's proprietary databases to arrive at the reserve for incurred but not reported losses for the calendar/accident period under review. As losses for a given calendar/accident period develop with the passage of time, management evaluates such development on a monthly and quarterly basis and adjusts reserve factors, as necessary, to reflect current judgment with regard to the anticipated ultimate incurred losses. This process continues until all losses are settled for each period subject to this method. Claim count methodology The Company uses a claim event and coverage combination to estimate frequency. For example, a single claim event involving loss for physical damage of a vehicle and personal injury to a claimant would be considered two claims for purposes of the calculation of frequency. A single claim event causing personal injury to two claimants would be considered a single claim under the methodology. Due to the number of reinsurance assumed treaties entered into (and the varying structures: both quota share and excess of loss) the Company deems it impractical to collect claim frequency information related to this business and this information has not been made available to the Company. |