Exhibit (c)(4)
REQUESTED BY HONG KONG SECURITIES AND FUTURES COMMISSION
THE FINANCIAL AND OTHER INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PRESENTATION WAS EXTRACTED FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE USED IN THE COMPOSITE DOCUMENT IN RELATION TO THE H SHARE OFFER AND WAS THEREFORE NOT PREPARED WITH A VIEW TO ENSURING COMPLIANCE WITH RULE 10 OF THE TAKEOVERS CODE.
Confidential
Presentation to:
Project Chunhui
DATA BOOK — INTERIM UPDATE OF TRADING AND PREMIUM INFORMATION
AUGUST 3, 2005
A-Share Turnover Information
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Turnover Information |
Price | | 15 Days | | 30 Days | | | | | | 45 Days | | 59 Days |
| | Trading | | % of Total | | Trading | | % of Total | | Trading | | % of Total | | Trading | | % of Total |
| | Volume | | A- Shares | | Volume | | A- Shares | | Volume | | A- Shares | | Volume | | A- Shares |
| | (MM) | | | | | | (MM) | | | | | | (MM) | | | | | | (MM) | | | | |
|
< 2.25 | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
2.25 - 2.39 | | | 3.2 | | | | 1.6 | % | | | 3.2 | | | | 1.6 | % | | | 3.2 | | | | 1.6 | % | | | 3.2 | | | | 1.6 | % |
2.40 - 2.54 | | | 16.8 | | | | 8.4 | % | | | 16.8 | | | | 8.4 | % | | | 16.8 | | | | 8.4 | % | | | 16.8 | | | | 8.4 | % |
2.55 - 2.69 | | | 10.4 | | | | 5.2 | % | | | 10.4 | | | | 5.2 | % | | | 10.4 | | | | 5.2 | % | | | 10.4 | | | | 5.2 | % |
2.70 - 2.84 | | | 14.3 | | | | 7.1 | % | | | 17.9 | | | | 8.9 | % | | | 17.9 | | | | 8.9 | % | | | 17.9 | | | | 8.9 | % |
2.85 - 2.99 | | | 10.7 | | | | 5.3 | % | | | 10.7 | | | | 5.4 | % | | | 10.7 | | | | 5.4 | % | | | 10.7 | | | | 5.4 | % |
3.00 - 3.14 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 4.7 | | | | 2.3 | % | | | 4.7 | | | | 2.3 | % | | | 6.7 | | | | 3.4 | % |
3.15 - 3.29 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 4.3 | | | | 2.2 | % | | | 7.2 | | | | 3.6 | % | | | 16.3 | | | | 8.2 | % |
3.30 - 3.44 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 4.1 | | | | 2.1 | % | | | 22.4 | | | | 11.2 | % | | | 48.7 | | | | 24.3 | % |
3.45 - 3.59 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 16.4 | | | | 8.2 | % | | | 33.3 | | | | 16.7 | % | | | 39.6 | | | | 19.8 | % |
3.60 - 3.75 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 9.3 | | | | 4.6 | % | | | 26.6 | | | | 13.3 | % | | | 27.0 | | | | 13.5 | % |
3.75 - 3.90 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.6 | | | | 1.3 | % | | | 2.6 | | | | 1.3 | % |
> 3.90 | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
Note: The days shown above are active trading days. Shares equivalent to the total number of A shares were traded in the last 59 days. Information as of August 1, 2005.
50% of Y’s A shares have traded at or below RMB 3.30 in the last 59 days
80% of Y’s A shares have traded at or below RMB 3.60 in the last 59 days
1
H-Share Turnover Information
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Turnover Information |
Price | | 10 Days | | 20 Days | | 30 Days | | 39 Days |
| | Trading | | % of Total | | Trading | | % of Total | | Trading | | % of Total | | Trading | | % of Total |
| | Volume | | H- Shares | | Volume | | H- Shares | | Volume | | H- Shares | | Volume | | H- Shares |
| | (MM) | | | | | | (MM) | | | | | | (MM) | | | | | | (MM) | | | | |
|
< 1.45 | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
1.45 – 1.49 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.0 | | | | 0.2 | % | | | 2.0 | | | | 0.2 | % | | | 2.0 | | | | 0.2 | % |
1.50 – 1.44 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 5.8 | | | | 0.6 | % | | | 5.8 | | | | 0.6 | % | | | 5.8 | | | | 0.6 | % |
1.55 – 1.59 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 22.2 | | | | 2.3 | % | | | 22.2 | | | | 2.3 | % | | | 22.2 | | | | 2.3 | % |
1.60 – 1.64 | | | 0.5 | | | | 0.1 | % | | | 14.1 | | | | 1.5 | % | | | 14.1 | | | | 1.5 | % | | | 42.8 | | | | 4.4 | % |
1.65 – 1.69 | | | — | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 46.4 | | | | 4.8 | % | | | 46.4 | | | | 4.8 | % | | | 102.9 | | | | 10.7 | % |
1.70 – 1.74 | | | 2.5 | | | | 0.3 | % | | | 53.8 | | | | 5.6 | % | | | 53.8 | | | | 5.6 | % | | | 73.1 | | | | 7.6 | % |
1.75 – 1.79 | | | 29.1 | | | | 3.0 | % | | | 43.9 | | | | 4.5 | % | | | 43.9 | | | | 4.5 | % | | | 77.0 | | | | 8.0 | % |
1.80 – 1.84 | | | 40.3 | | | | 4.2 | % | | | 58.8 | | | | 6.1 | % | | | 58.8 | | | | 6.1 | % | | | 91.5 | | | | 9.5 | % |
1.85 – 1.89 | | | 13.2 | | | | 1.4 | % | | | 36.0 | | | | 3.7 | % | | | 42.1 | | | | 4.4 | % | | | 105.3 | | | | 10.9 | % |
1.90 – 1.94 | | | 7.8 | | | | 0.8 | % | | | 28.2 | | | | 2.9 | % | | | 71.9 | | | | 7.4 | % | | | 171.6 | | | | 17.8 | % |
1.95 – 1.99 | | | 54.8 | | | | 5.7 | % | | | 54.8 | | | | 5.7 | % | | | 99.2 | | | | 10.3 | % | | | 143.0 | | | | 14.8 | % |
2.00 – 2.04 | | | 35.8 | | | | 3.7 | % | | | 35.8 | | | | 3.7 | % | | | 68.2 | | | | 7.1 | % | | | 90.8 | | | | 9.4 | % |
2.05 – 2.10 | | | 15.0 | | | | 1.6 | % | | | 15.0 | | | | 1.6 | % | | | 28.6 | | | | 3.0 | % | | | 36.8 | | | | 3.8 | % |
> 2.10 | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
Note: The days shown above are active trading days. Shares equivalent to the total number of H shares were traded in the last 39 days. Information as of August 1, 2005.
67.67% of Y’s H shares have traded at or below HK$ 1.95 in the last 59 days
90% of Y’s H shares have traded at or below HK$ 2.05 in the last 59 days
2
Premium Statistics– H Shares
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Trading Data of Y’s H Shares (Premium versus Reference Price) |
| | Stock | | | | | | | | |
| | Price as | | | | | | 52-Week | | |
| | of | | | | | | Performance | | Average Closing Price |
| | 8/1/2005 | | IPO Price | | High | | Low | | 10 days | | 20 days | | 30 days | | 90 days | | 6 months |
(HK$) | | 2.03 | | 1.59 | | 3.13 | | 1.31 | | 1.85 | | 1.84 | | 1.88 | | 1.84 | | 2.07 |
Reference | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Price | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
2.03 | | | 0.0 | % | | | 27.4 | % | | | -35.2 | % | | | 54.6 | % | | | 9.3 | % | | | 10.0 | % | | | 7.8 | % | | | 10.0 | % | | | -2.4 | % |
2.08 | | | 2.5 | % | | | 30.6 | % | | | -33.6 | % | | | 58.4 | % | | | 12.0 | % | | | 12.8 | % | | | 10.5 | % | | | 12.7 | % | | | 0.1 | % |
2.13 | | | 4.9 | % | | | 33.7 | % | | | -32.0 | % | | | 62.2 | % | | | 14.6 | % | | | 15.5 | % | | | 13.1 | % | | | 15.4 | % | | | 2.5 | % |
2.18 | | | 7.4 | % | | | 36.9 | % | | | -30.4 | % | | | 66.0 | % | | | 17.3 | % | | | 18.2 | % | | | 15.8 | % | | | 18.1 | % | | | 4.9 | % |
2.23 | | | 9.9 | % | | | 40.0 | % | | | -28.8 | % | | | 69.8 | % | | | 20.0 | % | | | 20.9 | % | | | 18.4 | % | | | 20.8 | % | | | 7.3 | % |
2.28 | | | 12.3 | % | | | 43.2 | % | | | -27.2 | % | | | 73.7 | % | | | 22.7 | % | | | 23.6 | % | | | 21.1 | % | | | 23.5 | % | | | 9.7 | % |
2.33 | | | 14.8 | % | | | 46.3 | % | | | -25.6 | % | | | 77.5 | % | | | 25.4 | % | | | 26.3 | % | | | 23.8 | % | | | 26.3 | % | | | 12.1 | % |
2.38 | | | 17.3 | % | | | 49.5 | % | | | -24.0 | % | | | 81.3 | % | | | 28.1 | % | | | 29.1 | % | | | 26.4 | % | | | 29.0 | % | | | 14.5 | % |
2.43 | | | 19.8 | % | | | 52.6 | % | | | -22.4 | % | | | 85.1 | % | | | 30.8 | % | | | 31.8 | % | | | 29.1 | % | | | 31.7 | % | | | 16.9 | % |
2.48 | | | 22.2 | % | | | 55.8 | % | | | -20.8 | % | | | 88.9 | % | | | 33.5 | % | | | 34.5 | % | | | 31.7 | % | | | 34.4 | % | | | 19.3 | % |
2.53 | | | 24.7 | % | | | 58.9 | % | | | -19.2 | % | | | 92.7 | % | | | 36.2 | % | | | 37.2 | % | | | 34.4 | % | | | 37.1 | % | | | 21.8 | % |
Source: Bloomberg
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3 | |  |
Premium Statistics — A Shares
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Trading Data of Y’s A Shares (Premium versus Reference Price) |
| | Stock | | | | | | | | |
| | Price as | | | | | | 52-Week | | |
| | of | | IPO | | Performance | | Average Closing Price |
| | 8/1/2005 | | Price | | High | | Low | | 10 days | | 20 days | | 30 days | | 90 days | | 6 months |
(RMB) | | 2.92 | | 3.5 | | 6.54 | | 2.34 | | 2.73 | | 2.76 | | 2.99 | | 3.86 | | 4.23 |
Reference | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Price | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | |
4.13 | | | 41.6 | % | | | 18.1 | % | | | -36.8 | % | | | 76.7 | % | | | 51.3 | % | | | 49.9 | % | | | 38.4 | % | | | 7.1 | % | | | -2.4 | % |
4.24 | | | 45.1 | % | | | 21.0 | % | | | -35.2 | % | | | 81.0 | % | | | 55.0 | % | | | 53.6 | % | | | 41.8 | % | | | 9.7 | % | | | 0.1 | % |
4.34 | | | 48.6 | % | | | 24.0 | % | | | -33.7 | % | | | 85.4 | % | | | 58.7 | % | | | 57.3 | % | | | 45.2 | % | | | 12.4 | % | | | 2.5 | % |
4.44 | | | 52.1 | % | | | 26.9 | % | | | -32.1 | % | | | 89.8 | % | | | 62.5 | % | | | 61.0 | % | | | 48.6 | % | | | 15.0 | % | | | 4.9 | % |
4.54 | | | 55.6 | % | | | 29.8 | % | | | -30.5 | % | | | 94.1 | % | | | 66.2 | % | | | 64.7 | % | | | 52.0 | % | | | 17.7 | % | | | 7.3 | % |
4.64 | | | 59.1 | % | | | 32.7 | % | | | -29.0 | % | | | 98.5 | % | | | 69.9 | % | | | 68.4 | % | | | 55.4 | % | | | 20.3 | % | | | 9.7 | % |
4.75 | | | 62.6 | % | | | 35.6 | % | | | -27.4 | % | | | 102.8 | % | | | 73.7 | % | | | 72.1 | % | | | 58.9 | % | | | 23.0 | % | | | 12.1 | % |
4.85 | | | 66.1 | % | | | 38.5 | % | | | -25.9 | % | | | 107.2 | % | | | 77.4 | % | | | 75.8 | % | | | 62.3 | % | | | 25.6 | % | | | 14.5 | % |
4.95 | | | 69.5 | % | | | 41.5 | % | | | -24.3 | % | | | 111.6 | % | | | 81.1 | % | | | 79.5 | % | | | 65.7 | % | | | 28.3 | % | | | 16.9 | % |
5.05 | | | 73.0 | % | | | 44.4 | % | | | -22.7 | % | | | 115.9 | % | | | 84.9 | % | | | 83.2 | % | | | 69.1 | % | | | 30.9 | % | | | 19.3 | % |
5.15 | | | 76.5 | % | | | 47.3 | % | | | -21.2 | % | | | 120.3 | % | | | 88.6 | % | | | 86.9 | % | | | 72.5 | % | | | 33.5 | % | | | 21.8 | % |
Source: Bloomberg
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Traded Petrochemical Companies
China Companies Asian Oils 140 130 120 190 180 |
90 130 120 80 110 100 70 90 |
07/2004 09/2004 12/2004 02/2005 05/2005 07/2005 |
60 Thai Comparables Taiwan Comparables 07/18/04 09/29/04 12/11/04 02/22/05 05/06/05 07/18/05 Japan Comparables S-Oil China Comparables Shenzhen A-Share SPC Nikkei 225 KOSPI STI Shanghai A-Share HSCEI SET |
5
Traded Petrochemical Companies
Information of Traded Petrochemical Companies (as of Aug 1, 2005)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Valuation Multiples | | Share | | | Market | | | Price / EPS | | | Firm | | | Firm Value / EBITDA | |
(Dollar in Millions, Except Stock Price) | | Price | | | Cap(a) | | | 2005E | | | 2006E | | | Value(b) | | | 2005E | | | 2006E | |
| | | | | | (in US$MM) | | | | | | | | | | | (in US $MM) | | | | | | | | | |
|
Y (A Share) | | RMB 2.92 | | $ | 1,187 | | | | 14.2x | | | | 7.1x | | | $ | 1,678 | | | | 5.5x | | | | 4.8x | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Chinese Cos — A shares | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co Ltd | | RMB 3.55 | | | 2,977 | | | | 6.8x | | | | 7.4x | | | | 3,711 | | | | 4.5x | | | | 5.1x | |
China Petroleum and Chemical (Sinopec) | | | 4.08 | | | | 42,880 | | | | 9.3 | | | | 9.0 | | | | 65,355 | | | | 5.1 | | | | 5.0 | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | 8.0x | | | | 8.2x | | | | | | | | 4.8x | | | | 5.1x | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Y (H Share) | | HK$2.03 | | $ | 1,187 | | | | 10.2x | | | | 5.1x | | | $ | 1,678 | | | | 5.5x | | | | 4.8x | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Chinese Cos — H shares | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co Ltd | | HK$2.75 | | | 2,977 | | | | 5.5x | | | | 6.0x | | | | 3,711 | | | | 4.5x | | | | 5.1x | |
Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co | | | 8.30 | | | | 2,695 | | | | 8.1 | | | | 7.1 | | | | 2,524 | | | | 4.1 | | | | 3.6 | |
PetroChina | | | 7.05 | | | | 159,467 | | | | 9.5 | | | | 10.3 | | | | 163,068 | | | | 5.3 | | | | 5.4 | |
China Petroleum and Chemical (Sinopec) | | | 3.38 | | | | 42,880 | | | | 8.0 | | | | 7.7 | | | | 65,355 | | | | 5.1 | | | | 5.0 | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | 7.7x | | | | 7.8x | | | | | | | | 4.7x | | | | 4.8x | |
| | | | | | Median | | | 8.0 | | | | 7.4 | | | | | | | | 4.8 | | | | 5.0 | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Other Asian Cos | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corp | | TW$51.3 | | $ | 8,410 | | | | 6.3x | | | | 6.9x | | | | $9,722 | | | | 8.0x | | | | 8.5x | |
Formosa Petrochemicals Corp | | TW$58.1 | | | 16,292 | | | | 10.7 | | | | 11.7 | | | | 20,628 | | | | 8.3 | | | | 7.6 | |
National Petrochemical PCL | | THB 116 | | | 853 | | | | 9.2 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 885 | | | | 5.5 | | | | 5.5 | |
PTT Public Co Ltd | | THB 228 | | | 15,524 | | | | 9.4 | | | | 9.3 | | | | 18,672 | | | | 8.5 | | | | 7.9 | |
S Oil Corporation | | KRW 79,100 | | | 8,565 | | | | 10.8 | | | | 11.5 | | | | 8,887 | | | | 6.9 | | | | 7.3 | |
Showa Shell Sekiyu KK | | JPY 1,224 | | | 4,094 | | | | 15.3 | | | | 15.5 | | | | 4,952 | | | | 8.4 | | | | 8.6 | |
Singapore Petroleum Company | | SGD 5.05 | | | 1,499 | | | | 7.0 | | | | 6.6 | | | | 1,825 | | | | 6.9 | | | | 6.4 | |
TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK | | JPY 1,215 | | | 6,321 | | | | 16.6 | | | | 17.3 | | | | 6,936 | | | | 8.2 | | | | 8.6 | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | 10.7x | | | | 10.9x | | | | | | | | 7.6x | | | | 7.5x | |
| | | | | | Median | | | 10.1 | | | | 10.4 | | | | | | | | 8.1 | | | | 7.8 | |
| | | | | | |
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Source: Estimates based on IBES. No updated EBITDA forcast for Y since issuing profit warning. |
|
(a) | | Market cap for all classes of shares, which is sum of H-shares’ share price multipled by number of H-shares outstanding and A-shares’ share price multipled by number of legal person shares and A-shares outstanding. Firm value based on net debt as of Dec 31, 2004 from Company’s annual report |
|
(b) | | Firm Value equals market equity value plus straight debt, minority interest, less investments in unconsolidated affiliates and cash. |
Y is currently trading at multiples significantly higher than it’s A-Share and H-Share peers
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Key Statistics of H-Share and A-Share Offers (Option 1 – X + Y)
Cost of Acquiring Minority Position (Prices as of Aug 1, 2005)
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| | Premium to Six Month Average Price | |
| | 0.0% | | | 5.0% | | | 10.0% | | | 12.5% | | | 15.0% | | | 17.5% | | | 20.0% | | | 22.5% | | | 25.0% | |
| | |
Price per Share paid to Minority | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
A Share (RMB) | | | 4.23 | | | | 4.45 | | | | 4.66 | | | | 4.76 | | | | 4.87 | | | | 4.97 | | | | 5.08 | | | | 5.19 | | | | 5.29 | |
H Share (HK$) | | | 2.07 | | | | 2.18 | | | | 2.28 | | | | 2.33 | | | | 2.38 | | | | 2.44 | | | | 2.49 | | | | 2.54 | | | | 2.59 | |
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Number of Shares held by Minority (MM) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
A Shares | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | | | | 200 | |
H Shares | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | | | | 965 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
X Share Price | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
H Share (HK$) | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | | | | 7.05 | |
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Conversion Ratios | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Y’s H Shares per X’s H Share (without additional premium | | | 3.40 | | | | 3.24 | | | | 3.09 | | | | 3.02 | | | | 2.96 | | | | 2.89 | | | | 2.83 | | | | 2.78 | | | | 2.72 | |
Y’s H Shares per X’s H Share (with additional premium) | | | 3.09 | | | | 2.94 | | | | 2.81 | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2.69 | | | | 2.63 | | | | 2.58 | | | | 2.52 | | | | 2.47 | |
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Number of X Shares Required (MM) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
H Share (share offer at no additional premium) | | | 283.8 | | | | 298.0 | | | | 312.2 | | | | 319.3 | | | | 326.4 | | | | 333.5 | | | | 340.6 | | | | 347.7 | | | | 354.8 | |
% of X’s enlarged equity | | | 1.6 | % | | | 1.7 | % | | | 1.7 | % | | | 1.8 | % | | | 1.8 | % | | | 1.9 | % | | | 1.9 | % | | | 1.9 | % | | | 2.0 | % |
H Share (share offer at 10% additional premium) | | | 312.2 | | | | 327.8 | | | | 343.4 | | | | 351.2 | | | | 359.0 | | | | 366.8 | | | | 374.6 | | | | 382.4 | | | | 390.2 | |
% of X’s enlarged equity | | | 1.7 | % | | | 1.8 | % | | | 1.9 | % | | | 2.0 | % | | | 2.0 | % | | | 2.0 | % | | | 2.1 | % | | | 2.1 | % | | | 2.2 | % |
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Note: |
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(1) | | For the purpose of this analysis, we have assumed 100% acceptance rate for the Share offer. |
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7 | |  |
Key Statistics of H-Share and A-Share Offers (Option 1 – X + Y)
Share Offer at 10% additional premium to the Cash Offer (Prices as of Aug 1, 2005)
(RMB Millions, except per share data)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Consideration | | Cash Offer Premium to Six Month Average Price | |
| | | | | | Payable | | 0.0% | | | 5.0% | | | 10.0% | | | 12.5% | | | 15.0% | | | 17.5% | | | 20.0% | | | 22.5% | | | 25.0% | |
Percentage of Shareholders accepting Cash Offer(balance shareholders accepting Share Offer) | |  | | H-Share Cash Offer Price (HKD) | | | 2.07 | | | | 2.18 | | | | 2.28 | | | | 2.33 | | | | 2.38 | | | | 2.44 | | | | 2.49 | | | | 2.54 | | | | 2.59 | |
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| | A-Share Cash Offer Price (RMB) | | | 4.23 | | | | 4.45 | | | | 4.66 | | | | 4.76 | | | | 4.87 | | | | 4.97 | | | | 5.08 | | | | 5.19 | | | | 5.29 | |
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| | 0% | | Cash | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
| | | | Value of Shares | | | 3,226 | | | | 3,388 | | | | 3,549 | | | | 3,630 | | | | 3,710 | | | | 3,791 | | | | 3,872 | | | | 3,952 | | | | 4,033 | |
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| | | | | | | | |
| | | | Total | | | 3,226 | | | | 3,388 | | | | 3,549 | | | | 3,630 | | | | 3,710 | | | | 3,791 | | | | 3,872 | | | | 3,952 | | | | 4,033 | |
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| | 20% | | Cash | | | 587 | | | | 616 | | | | 645 | | | | 660 | | | | 675 | | | | 689 | | | | 704 | | | | 719 | | | | 733 | |
|
| | | | Value of Shares | | | 2,581 | | | | 2,710 | | | | 2,839 | | | | 2,904 | | | | 2,968 | | | | 3,033 | | | | 3,097 | | | | 3,162 | | | | 3,226 | |
|
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | Total | | | 3,168 | | | | 3,326 | | | | 3,484 | | | | 3,564 | | | | 3,643 | | | | 3,722 | | | | 3,801 | | | | 3,880 | | | | 3,960 | |
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| | 40% | | Cash | | | 1,173 | | | | 1,232 | | | | 1,291 | | | | 1,320 | | | | 1,349 | | | | 1,379 | | | | 1,408 | | | | 1,437 | | | | 1,466 | |
|
| | | | Value of Shares | | | 1,936 | | | | 2,033 | | | | 2,129 | | | | 2,178 | | | | 2,226 | | | | 2,275 | | | | 2,323 | | | | 2,371 | | | | 2,420 | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | Total | | | 3,109 | | | | 3,264 | | | | 3,420 | | | | 3,498 | | | | 3,575 | | | | 3,653 | | | | 3,731 | | | | 3,808 | | | | 3,886 | |
| | 60% | | Cash | | | 1,760 | | | | 1,848 | | | | 1,936 | | | | 1,980 | | | | 2,024 | | | | 2,068 | | | | 2,112 | | | | 2,156 | | | | 2,200 | |
|
| | | | Value of Shares | | | 1,291 | | | | 1,355 | | | | 1,420 | | | | 1,452 | | | | 1,484 | | | | 1,516 | | | | 1,549 | | | | 1,581 | | | | 1,613 | |
|
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | Total | | | 3,050 | | | | 3,203 | | | | 3,355 | | | | 3,432 | | | | 3,508 | | | | 3,584 | | | | 3,660 | | | | 3,737 | | | | 3,813 | |
|
| | 80% | | Cash | | | 2,346 | | | | 2,464 | | | | 2,581 | | | | 2,640 | | | | 2,698 | | | | 2,757 | | | | 2,816 | | | | 2,874 | | | | 2,933 | |
|
| | | | Value of Shares | | | 645 | | | | 678 | | | | 710 | | | | 726 | | | | 742 | | | | 758 | | | | 774 | | | | 790 | | | | 807 | |
|
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | Total | | | 2,992 | | | | 3,141 | | | | 3,291 | | | | 3,366 | | | | 3,440 | | | | 3,515 | | | | 3,590 | | | | 3,665 | | | | 3,740 | |
|
| | 100% | | Cash | | | 2,933 | | | | 3,080 | | | | 3,226 | | | | 3,300 | | | | 3,373 | | | | 3,446 | | | | 3,520 | | | | 3,593 | | | | 3,666 | |
|
| | | | Value of Shares | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | | | | — | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | Total | | | 2,933 | | | | 3,080 | | | | 3,226 | | | | 3,300 | | | | 3,373 | | | | 3,446 | | | | 3,520 | | | | 3,593 | | | | 3,666 | |
| | |
Notes: |
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(1) | | Share consideration assumed to be at a 10% premium to the cash consideration |
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(2) | | Exchange rate of HKD 0.96 / CNY 1 |
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(3) | | As per Company guidance at meeting of 19 July, we understand that the Company is considering only a cash consideration at present |
8
Information of Public Market Transaction Premia
4 | | Key factors which determine the level of premium in both situations required include: |
| • | | Cash vs. stock acquisition currency |
|
| • | | Level of expected competition for target |
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| • | | Need for target to sell and perspectives of target shareholders over future viability of company |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | Premia prior to Announce |
Year | | Target | | Acquiror | | 1 Day | | 10 Days | | 30 Days | | 60 Days |
|
2005 | | Henderson China | | Henderson Land | | | 56.3 | % | | | 50.9 | % | | | 54.0 | % | | | 54.3 | % |
2005 | | Yanhua | | Sinopec | | | 10.9 | | | | 18.8 | | | | 23.9 | | | | 24.3 | |
2004 | | Kwong Sang Hong Intl | | Power Jade Capital Ltd | | | 5.0 | | | | 23.0 | | | | 36.2 | | | | 52.63 | |
2003 | | Chevalier Constr Hldg | | Chevalier Intl Hldg Ltd | | | 16.3 | | | | 16.3 | | | | 23.8 | | | | 37.4 | |
2003 | | JGC Holding | | Public Bank Bhd | | | 19.7 | | | | 19.4 | | | | 21.3 | | | | 25.6 | |
2003 | | SIIC Medical Science | | Shanghai Indl Hldg Ltd | | | 15.0 | | | | 20.8 | | | | 24.3 | | | | 31.9 | |
2003 | | eSun Holdings Ltd | | Lai Sun Development | | | 27.3 | | | | 28.6 | | | | 30.6 | | | | 18.9 | |
|
| | | | | | Average (Excl High/low) | | | 17.8 | % | | | 22.1 | % | | | 27.8 | % | | | 34.4 | % |
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Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings With reference to cash alternatives only
9
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