The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 575,000 jobs during the third quarter of 2016 compared to 439,000 jobs during the second quarter of 2016. All major employment sectors expanded during the quarter except for information services and manufacturing and mining. The unemployment rate ticked up in September to end the quarter at 5.0% as the labor force increased.
Finance and professional and business are the primary drivers of office space demand. In the third quarter, the financial services sector added 36,000 jobs as compared to 54,000 in the second quarter, while professional and business services employment increased by 182,000 as compared to 137,000 previously. CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors (“CBRE-EA”) reported that the national office vacancy rate held steady at 13.0% during third quarter. The vacancy rate is now approaching the previous cyclical low of 12.4% achieved in the second quarter of 2007. Vacancy rates improved in most major office markets, with declines in 37 of the 63 markets tracked by CBRE-EA.
Industrial market conditions improved for the 26th consecutive quarter, the longest stretch of declining availability on record. The national availability rate declined to 8.4% from 8.6% in the second quarter. CBRE-EA notes that industrial market conditions have benefited from strong e-commerce demand. Availability rates increased in only 10 of the 59 markets tracked by CBRE-EA, most of which were likely due to increasing supply.
The national apartment vacancy rate increased to 4.6% in third quarter 2016 from 4.3% in third quarter 2015. (Year-over-year comparisons are necessary due to seasonal leasing patterns.) The increase in the national vacancy rate was the second since late-2009. CBRE-EA notes that the increases are not yet a cause for concern as rental demand remains strong, supported by the expanding labor market. Nonetheless, CBRE-EA expects rent growth to moderate in the near-term as new supply peaks in the next year, which will likely contribute to rising vacancy rates.
Preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3% from second quarter 2016 and 2.3% over third quarter 2015 sales. Continued retail sales growth supported improvement in retail market conditions during the third quarter as the national availability rate declined to 10.4% from 10.6% in the second quarter. Modest but steady improvements in retail market conditions have brought the availability rate down from its peak of 13.2% in mid-2011. Employment and personal income growth trends remain favorable for consumer spending, which should support meaningful rent growth in upcoming quarters.
Note: Data subject to revision
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