The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 541,000 jobs during the first quarter of 2019 compared to 700,000 jobs during the fourth quarter of 2018. The economy created an average of 180,000 jobs over the past three months, below the 12-month average of 211,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8% for the first quarter.
Finance and professional & business services have been the traditional drivers of demand for office space. The financial services sector saw an increase in jobs added, from 18,000 in the fourth quarter to 23,000 jobs in the first quarter while the professional and business services sector, which includes many facets of technology-related employment decreased, from 126,000 jobs during the fourth quarter as compared to 96,000 during the first quarter. Suburban markets saw a decrease in vacancy of 11 bps while downtown vacancy rates remained steady at 10.5%, vacancy nationwide decreased from 12.7% in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 12.5% for the first quarter, as reported by CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors (“CBRE-EA”). Vacancy rates declined in 30, rose in 23 and remained flat in 10 of the 63 markets tracked by CBRE-EA.
The national industrial availability rate remained steady at 7.0% in the first quarter. Overall, availability rates decreased in 30 of the 64 industrial markets tracked by CBRE-EA. Demand continues to outpace supply suggesting that the industrial sector still has ways to go in its growth cycle. In the near term, industrial availability rates may remain flat.
The national apartment vacancy rate decreased by an additional 10 bps to 4.4% in the first quarter from 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Of the 66 apartment markets tracked by CBRE-EA, data indicates that vacancy rates decreased in 53 markets, remained unchanged in five and increased in 8. Market conditions are expected to continue to soften as new supply delivers and employment growth begins to slow. Generally, the U.S. economy continues to support strong rental demand and solid growth, but the evolving balance of supply and demand and increased competition has led to moderation in rent growth and increased concessions.
Preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 2.1% in the first quarter and 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. Availability rates decreased to 8.8% for the first quarter, down 20 bps from the fourth quarter. Economic conditions have led to increased consumer spending, potentially increasing a higher demand for retail space in the coming quarters. Note: Data subject to revision
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