Earnings call transcript Q4 2022

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Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the American Financial Group 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

I would now turn the conference to your host, Ms. Diane Weidner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Diane Weidner

you. Thank welcome Call. Group's and Earnings Quarter American Conference Results to morning, Fourth Financial XXXX Good .

our fourth released We XXXX yesterday year afternoon. results quarter and full

posted the release, AFG's during materials portions press investor call. and referenced presentation Our today's supplement will be website Relations Investor are under of section. These webcast on

by Lindner and and CFO. Craig Hertzman, joined Brian Co-CEOs of I'm AFG's Carl this Lindner, morning Group; III American Financial

Carl, Slide I to Before of would to I over turn attention on the draw the webcast. to notes X discussion our your like

Some matters Securities be forward-looking detailed results A materially the in found Exchange could and to of differ are be with statements. can are which Commission, actual forward-looking. statements uncertainties description on AFG's filings discussed of These also and/or cause and risks to available these today financial these condition involve the our risks certain from uncertainties that website. and

We to earnings net may measure, net core remarks financial to to our shareholders is our or operating operating A non-GAAP a core earnings questions. included net earnings, include attributable to references in in release. reconciliation responses in earnings of

reviewed factual finally, accuracy. result, could are reading a or note that intent our as transcript And And materially or contain or it transcription may the if errors it be alter authorized this may call, a not of statements. of you please for that meaning

the to Lindner Carl turn over III our call pleased to results. discuss Now I am to

Carl Lindner

I AFG's respond highlights to Craig pleased of Well, quarter and share We're after fourth questions. to year will good which and morning. XXXX and Brian your full results,

the and all a the grew year. an Casualty & equity a the of strong for financial on our company. record premium excellent during to nearly was Property XX% return operating during and production of establishing performance AFG's topped Core level year, outstanding fourth quarter businesses finish

in Specialty very also report and and to profit our Casualty Property are investment underwriting full pleased record year income business. We

of in-house operating us culture, I Craig team these enabled have exceptionally and investment achieve of of results. us team thank and businesses professionals many and helping time. to management philosophy mix our astute Insurance Specialty over entrepreneurial for to outperform collectively employees God, compelling disciplined Our peers our strong our and talented

Craig results, now performance through over us and to our the investment discussion fourth position at XX. quarter walk overall AFG's to I'll financial turn December

Stephen Lindner

Carl. Thanks,

As capital see XXXX. earnings allows year net X, full most share $XX.XX XXXX, the casualty ROE peer earnings on operating management, core better equity Slide power returns excellent of the coupled you'll generating return The in produce even achieved AFG excess to core a with on of AFG's property XX.X% equity operating core for in our on of insurers. which were and efficient was operations, than our XX.X%, per of

our our that management make of an strategy capital to component future. and in management top-tier reflects management financial is Understanding ROEs, we one of priorities. capital capital component strong capital important and shareholders our Returning AFG's financial a position delivering confidence is critical highest our our of

in returned I during just special dividends. $X common $XX stock dividends billion over or shareholders and that share including $XXX XXXX, pleased regular billion we per are Carl in and million $X.XX to

creation. Our beginning track October in quarterly XX.X% to dividend was an XXXX. We're of proud of annual of increased $X.XX per of record rate by value share our

During XXXX of form and XXXX, in and of to dividends we in the returned shareholders a $X.X repurchases. billion total capital share

annuity per book plus excess and property Growth sale value and generate continued of capital our we've was XXXX. an deploy the AFG's from adjusted deploying business, to created in casualty impressive share excess strong through capital to addition dividends operations. XX.X% In the in

Turning to X X. and Slides

on end included securities produced at to per the of XXXX on that of an XX.X%. the earnings $X.XX share of quarter $X.XX value see continue quarter $X.XX share, noncore net fourth You'll per equity securities of hold Net on realized core per we of of earnings core share which annualized include that changes quarter. gains fair the operating fourth return after-tax

Now few comments liquidity. AFG's like and of I'd to about discuss a and financial share the capital portfolio, AFG's performance investment position

our on and Slides investment presented increase billion market at X on unrealized million portfolio reflecting year-end were spreads the quarter, of maturity Pretax details credit compared interest surrounding portfolio and XXXX. fixed The fourth end are the $XXX $XX.X losses X. to in AFG's rates the widened

recent duration entered at portfolio XXXX, its at our in the fixed we As maturity history. was lowest

to the In our P&C at portfolio invest able maturity X.XX% on X.X%, high-quality, cash we X rate to in which securities rate and earned Over favorably interest to at and by XXXX. acted fixed fixed the presented December portfolio, years duration, increasing X the from current including approximately fixed the of the year, extended maturity we're environment XXXX. on opportunities yields at duration compare approximately environment, quarter years our P&C maturities course of interest XXXX, at equivalents the cash yield the of approximately of fourth medium XX, XX, December during

XX for in In points rate of to fourth XXXX. of on we or to most quarter quarter addition compared short-term our X-month the XXXX benefit expect interest earned earned fourth additional from the X.XX% which of impact increases reinvestment rates. as floating increase securities, we we portfolio favorable tied to were of P&C by fixed Altogether, higher expect portfolio by of indices maturity forward, the rates, basis X-month to look yield the to

Looking the quarter. at results the for

X.X% -- years quarter net the The approximately for income of XXXX alternative ended months XXXX, the Property over on X quarter. return annual fourth investments investments for strong XX, average approximately These & ended of an the X comparable the than results return on period. fourth exceptionally XXXX XXXX, December XX% XXXX XX, return calendar investment AFG's the XX.X% was lower included to the December compared annualized Casualty in was an XX%. fourth For alternative

impact December assets. X rates, interest XXXX, the XX% and enhanced impact of investments, our the a Property coming investment of XX, invested ended of our portfolio year-over-year Excluding for increased strategic insurance rising & months alternative by of XXXX into operations as higher the net at positioning income result of balances Casualty the

P&C months period December net alternative XXXX remarkably ended XXXX, included approximately than XX.X% earned the was X% higher XX, XX comparable in investments compared income on to and investments the XX.X% of strong For on on a for XXXX XXXX. return the investments investment alternative

challenging very on the XXXX investments a alternative We're with double-digit pleased in environment. return earned in investment

as our higher impact Excluding casualty investment rates of alternative XXXX balances at operations assets. insurance the and investments, income year-over-year of result XX% rising increased and net interest invested for of a property

weaker billion on of to investments single-digit the an equity forward offset for of our to As reflects of our a investments is performance high portfolio on alternative our anticipated is guidance investments. $X.X we private multifamily by year return return assumed look partially traditional approximately XXXX, X% be somewhat housing-related

Slide Please where XXXX. find XX, to turn a you'll summary X, December AFG's at of position financial

was $X.X number parent This XX, December investments capital included approximately company and at million. excess of XXXX. billion approximately $XXX Our cash

through recently This XX, the the dividend on $X.XX in of share During cash XX, paid to Yesterday, $X regular most special on regular $X addition company's special quarter, we returned $X.XX per is and dividend a of of share January XXXX. we announced the million per quarterly payable dividend payment special dividend to per our XXXX. shareholders $XXX per share our a February quarterly dividend. share

significant we the special repurchases operations end excess XXXX. to dividends deploy in share the $XXX declared share of with capital million of through for expect yesterday, where point excess dividend our capital additional of per special generate XXXX we Even in to excess could or the $X

our that fixed we excess recall, capital number that may our share portion unrealized total internal and of dividends capital special view on limited target by of by the XX%, is you is impacted maturities. losses debt-to-cap and As for available is gains and repurchases

that of However, frees excess debt of up for dollar each to capital to $X note shareholders. repurchased important it's distribution approximately

in dividends per months XX, For XXXX, was growth value plus AFG's the X X.X%. December book ended share

XX, the losses book impact partially value months AFG's fixed spreads. credit increased ended from X.X%, maturities rates on and interest unrealized by December per share For increased by dividends strong widened earnings, of reflecting plus the XX very the offset rising XXXX,

for we maturity somewhat growth adjusted dividends stocks to X.X% companies some when traded exposure maturities, duration achieved to common of compared share value per and fixed in short XX.X% our to in limited XXXX. the full The peer related during losses and publicly the book fixed unrealized of helped performance quarter portfolio fourth Excluding plus year. their

back the to XXXX. to turn results P&C now operations over call the our expectations Carl our I'll of discuss for and

Carl Lindner

Craig. Please of fourth which to you, the XX and include results. Thank overview turn an webcast, quarter Slides of X

meeting catastrophe & our a businesses especially year industry earnings. or subsegments combined Casualty & our for Casualty Specialty XXXX record in XX% full pleased of or Property Specialty Casualty out Property returns strong record full production new underwriting profit note, quarter I'm and of nearly core operating Property elevated XXXX and & businesses. on We year in premium closed each records pretax that Our exceeding better fourth of all produced the are targeted despite set ratios for losses. producing

at look XXXX, year-over-year XXXX crop in for business reported our average it's year quarter especially in & the the Casualty Property fourth following fourth in results lose to period. in our the comparison extremely the sight of of easy crop the we results quarter, results prior results When strong comparable noting achieved

period. reported XX.X%, quarter prior exceptional was on in fourth than As XX.X% points excellent X.X you'll ratio see Slide comparable higher although combined an the year X, XXXX the the

for ratio quarter put to modest XXXX fourth XXXX business the Fourth XXXX of quarter combined fourth during development the losses results the we If X.X a fourth crop of X include points the was quarter the points in to XXXX quarter losses catastrophe catastrophe to fourth losses side, XXXX. prior added Results elevated in points the our catastrophe quarter despite X.X included year the combined compared reserve industry fourth our points for By in the results. quarter favorable comparable quarter. comparison, to X.X ratio.

each quarter the of increased respectively premiums and opportunities, rate and compared X%, exposures written the year Year-over-year of X% net as prior result environment. business quarter. and was a good growth to a within combination during a quarter Specialty Property Gross renewal fourth and Casualty the XXXX fourth of increased reported groups the in new

in and rate quarter, attributable exposures vary is to considerably up growth growth relatively our of approximately Property renewal workers' specialty across overall, prior line about has comp In specialty half insurance, for opportunities up to full P&C and drivers the was X% crop attributable year half portfolio remained rate aggregate, us excluding and renewal the The or targeted has and returns throughout Group, consistent in in renewal businesses. with the of year, approximately the all to meet written Average environment enabled increases. year-over-year in businesses. and our our exceed the excluding increases reported X% pricing Casualty XXXX, across business nearly of P&C gross quarter. in change rate for new premium the The in

We've to rate good We us rate trends and specialty us the some on ratio time achieve achieving ahead more over straight for impact increases time adequate been achieved feel in and focused book reserves. about increases our level and the for cumulative of rate feel adequacy of to of very which of stay the have have entire loss enabled pricing across quarters. prospective overall confident we that continue importantly, helped increases to XX even our

Given our pricing I reinsurance and provide on the renewals. the focus on an to reinsurance wanted capacity, update

successfully In risk reinsurance challenging per our a and January, market. cat property within property renewed we XXXX treaties

have other were and terms Our X XXXX. divisional similar very to renewals executed well with gone January

property our about cat. Talking

sized are with provided relatively renewal discussions. similar existing entered property who appetite foundation trusted a Our coverage that and understand attaching $XXX compared low traditionally underwriting risk cat discipline levels partners Having our relationships at solid catastrophe we as to has an and at bond reinsurance peers. million attached long-standing

to million coverage our million excess catastrophe us tower of occurrence $XX provides $XX of treaty up a the retention point increase million, million our We in $XX of collapses excess event majority an bond. our which and in to of $XX U.S.-based This our $XX per to X from for new retention million placed vast operations. primary $XX attachment of for covers structure of layer per million the

to up and tower in cat losses XX%, of million of million property in for coverage catastrophe our $XXX provides XX, XXXX. $XXX bond cat Our excess December expires

in including Our reinsurance The consider in retentions higher the is into our of our reflected are property primary management guidance. our retention costs coverages. our reinsurance ensure and teams pricing coverage, higher pricing arrangements, and and factored retentions that the per cat terms, of always occurrence property these XXXX factors

our result Slide to profitability turn year. and our and in of highlights to like the few the I'd compared last each crop Lower underwriting to insurance Now average year-over-year results a reported strong Group business to of Casualty Property review Transportation Specialty underwriting primarily XX groups. the crop in from was when profit Property exceptionally operations

year-over-year, calendar improved group. of quarter fourth X.X results the businesses group reflecting the in ratio this crop, in this points majority improved combined the year in Excluding

inclusive comparable last were net in primarily were fourth in group, losses premiums Elliott. quarter Catastrophe Winter to $XX this the million compared of in the XXXX $X of of reinsurance year to and attributable period and Storm million reinstatement

overall. the this rate increased of the increase for in reported for average and up Fourth the quarter year group XXXX compared attributed XXXX, was in Pricing in higher third on rates gross premiums commodity the to when renewal full this X% X%, quarter, to fourth and to X% fourth XXXX products crop group X% group net Overall from primarily quarter this business quarter. were and new the X% for prices with higher opportunities respectively, sessions. up accelerating winter wheat due

Now surplus by and excess Though were overall be more workers' higher businesses. in businesses in Group, year-over-year Casualty our excess excellent. profitability underwriting workers' profitability lines underwriting specialty comp offset than businesses to underwriting continued profits our in liability and comp our the in our lower

XXXX, both the an calendar same combined to The prior the XX.X% compared group year premiums comparable achieved businesses outstanding exceptionally during the in points strong fourth gross Group increased period. fourth growth the when In the higher than XX% Casualty in net X.X reported quarter. X% the overall quarter, in year in year written with vast prior businesses period, Specialty the of majority achieved this quarter and ratio

liability this operations. included was and the strong of liability partially business, social our growth accounts payroll and growth exposures services new retention premium fourth quarter. pricing Majority acquisitions workers' in additional new strong our up our the for businesses business opportunities offset up up business account year-over-year E&S X% from to previous comp, lower with executive in was by The our was both mergers and and the in in contributing group renewal X% in Factors businesses, full increased about and growth premiums comp in businesses. overall during in Average from this up for quarter group, this renewal pricing group X% X% renewal X% overall. were year, achieved pricing the fourth comp, workers' the Renewal excluding down and measures the rates excluding and quarter. in

fourth results prior and reported continued related in favorable in XX.X% year for year-over-year improvement the Now Hurricane from to achieve favorable of points of underwriting lower excellent million reinsurance the the year Specialty of and inclusive compared million estimated premiums quarter an the premiums adjusted impact X.X combined -- for Group period. than quarter finance ratio Financial of of an was from margins previously underwriting had reinstatement Higher impact the on losses reinstatement primarily Ian. losses $X quarter. of XXXX, of $X underwriting net over group Ian a to the the profit prior Catastrophe fourth the to this result

when growth up were our premiums written net year leasing in and prior the XX% commercial compared institutions gross primarily and period the equipment due and business. XXXX to quarter to Fourth financial XX%, respectively,

In year-over-year estimated previously written from Hurricane addition, than Ian contributed net higher reinstatement premiums. premiums lower to

in quarter, full this XXXX. pricing increases X% with the fourth group Renewal in group consistent for previous was this X% quarter. of the up for Renewal up was pricing year the in rate

of expect property summary for XX, for from exposure if page an and our Slide both continue rate full with a continued and arising where please casualty see to growth Now you'd XXXX. you'll turn Overall, increases market we to favorable growth. guidance initial opportunities ongoing

at produces the net core share, to over $XX midpoint. $XX in AFG's to which equity be earnings return of in core a of XXXX XX% on per expect operating range We the

reflects assumptions crop guidance estimated expectations an last year regarding XX.X% income achieved the of and on return investment alternative and investments an to Our compared X% including XXXX average year. in

at earnings excluding guidance, XX% from the measure. results alternative Core would similar on our net of investments increase income a XXXX operating year-over-year midpoint XXXX's from

and XX%. Property Property combined a our for and overall outlook for Specialty the As Group we the between and Casualty operations, consider we expect Specialty ratio Casualty XXXX XX%

the written a reported X% X% XXXX, to what X% crop, expected Net billion growth be we be expect of in are expect the to more challenging economic in to and than premiums in XXXX higher range environment. $X.X to X% for excluding we

subsegment. Looking each at

Group the Property X% to X%. range range XX%. to average assumes our ratio Again, growth in guidance earnings Transportation We be estimate in of expect this the and for the to premiums in to combined be rent net XX% crop year. group of for We

impact would the futures on X% futures premiums written our net crop in and factors Based our be insurance in premiums current guidance we expect growth in on levels to down crop pricing, related premiums, current commodity pricing premium impact business. crop at exposure and which of negatively Our year-over-year. commodities year-over-year volatility business

be Excluding crop, the written this growth in range of expected in to X% X%. premiums group is net to in

a Group of XX% range Casualty produce Specialty is combined the to expected to XX%. ratio in

year in of in businesses in X%. be assumes guidance we're will workers' business. Our this which rent comp decreases by comp the to of calendar our net book, overall, line our favorable in experience rate range loss and growth X% estimating continued of a are premiums in tempered Premium growth workers' result profitability

to expect grow workers' of excluding this to comp, XX%. we in the in So premiums X% group range

in range X% businesses combined be premiums in to written of the in on the of and Specialty Financial to projected underwriting to we the based this X% to produce XX%, the nearly all group. strong group in across Group's ratio this this net be growth growth expect in all of we Now to for expect XX% margins, businesses range group with projected

expect operations range Casualty overall of X%. be We our increase rate and Property and to between excluding to rates overall X% X% in to the and we comp, increases expect renewal Specialty renewal in X%

fourth year, of results full these record and report pleased Craig we're long-term and of the I very and track for creation. are quarter our proven strong exceptionally to proud value

have and environment, work their well begin XXXX. and insurance us Our economic professionals in positions very industry but investment insurance dynamic uncertain as we executed a well

I open Brian respond portion would and and lines the to will Craig to today's now the And your of I for be happy call. Q&A questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions].

first question Our Paul from Sandler. comes Piper Newsome from

Jon Newsome

seems Congratulations like on for a variety a I more just kind hoping your in of It little the you businesses. was of went competitive the year reinsurance and little inflation bit maybe am I obviously felt the year. competitive as don't bit Is like assessment? some not know despite that Or got thing fair higher I environment the a really off by, volatility could a if of the and it it reassess that's it? tailing prices. specialty probably XXXX. it's the oversimplifying fair

Carl Lindner

so businesses businesses. XX Well, -- be the in higher types arena. on in excess that for layers and were more workers' last our those X felt I was excess more to more in There clearly seem risk to I'd there California, certainly specialty or we in mentioned, public on competitive in that. -- national particularly certain and say in we D&O And comp of there was have that competition of sure liability be X seem that areas market competitors

a and in think quo social that. and it's factors, have think, the environment. inflation, think our in maybe the business property I kept pricing a But businesses, increased reasonably those the competitive I status marginally pretty more of with our of in majority other most slowing I economy cat probably competitive

Jon Newsome

It in of seem few doesn't or as you a sense. be sign and Is about segments products ton to maybe is of more other Or environment? thoughts pool of this talent the like here is new in how philosophically and a new the a Maybe a to just careful competitive while, than added new grow in you sort teams how there. more and Makes businesses? think trying on new couple conservative it trying a it. you're you're it

Carl Lindner

XX%. we Well, last grew year,

the So pretty in I was talent certainly COVID, tighter -- think coming during and COVID that all much. out coming of businesses market

I grow outstanding to an think group HR that. necessary department our Ours business the our did talent wasn't any in and job But our attracting in exception.

much limiting So a factor. that see didn't I as too of

us We've and that values in going incentives to have created that. we're we a a think -- and for industry, work reputation successful like company. I have what we culture a a is them and really people for with very our

want as So talent I don't growth in to do. limiter a or limiter what we being see a on

want business geographically some we're it's think I looking the think to acquisitions It's always find find we're as they've in and piece a to our the only but, our of opportunities and time right over investing on earn room all returns. always but cake are been that low in returns our we in accretive at in double-digit additional M&A adding rates in more your to double-digit -- with or case, of that, more businesses I is to expand businesses not sub-niches. hurdle being as in side. businesses accretive equity interest have It's difficult to and capital about grow

Operator

from Our Zaremski Michael the next line of comes of question BMO.

Michael Zaremski

First question X on year-over-year. the of X in the outlook average to in outlook, rates renewal decel terms

workers' of might expectations? elaborate some lower there's remarks, the higher, coming hearing of be terms you you'd but in comp, to call of some moving color think some like moving of other any lines maybe from some if moving kind I even business the out, can of in prepared maybe it

Carl Lindner

good Mike, Yes, question.

rate up that. results in give comp, workers' continues to be some in to positive certainly, tied there think I

I prior for industry for have us the news, excellent kind turned better think it's than of year what news. of was generally The a expected. the year out couple last bad over years and good

is in think going said, that excellent of to That businesses results. that. businesses, factor. a comp we're So And think our to I our some have do in growing comp continue I be

comp, excluding at comp ex right X% the pricing X%. of loss when Our you ratio guidance prospective And X%. they're around is to look trends kind

excess the D&O just among think of in or want what increases than the competitive Public liability where XXXX. The -- mentioned. on should where we business, our not getting Fortune more be to quite it I lines we're some higher I is to be. particularly rate So

to the loss prospective -- to business, trend. a as think ratio to we're get not going a I

our want and ratio we've to be do our I running that we're because case, combined in percent strong year. cumulative think multiyear So in careful think book, XX% really an -- this do increases had I I in

of our are higher than some And businesses that.

of businesses what than one. in the should businesses better case, we of strategy are each at our the be our each Some one look And and that. in

on would that perspective my anyhow, be things. So

Michael Zaremski

I'll helpful. the that we I load reinsurance reread the should to I bit admit is That's be or seasonality a renewal transcript I if have anything Okay. in now went And retention terms on thinking good just up of cat heard But something? about think that correct, color. materially. our models in or

Carl Lindner

year I what tried is tried to guidance. think every we bake hard think reflect we've guidance do we've into to that. to when everything I give And our

thing, went we not anyhow million that. premiums think think probably I argue should look XX, that probably kept that should for million you it the have $XX to had extra so lower to you $XX pay I $XX amount -- anyhow. that And one because I XX like something probably it's could to -- we -- case, or million and would the at had really when that our of have been we we guess, XX we at pay have you paid online, in layer, it's exposure, rate from retention of

what us, you not it's if really saying. of that I'm really understand impacts So amount the retention full the

Michael Zaremski

put in Okay. Yes, that now context. helps it

of lot some, I property on your Okay. for about trend of maybe particularly a up not lots there's bit different casualty creeping competitors' of a discussion that some And of but been on appreciate loss the side. just there's bit a side, business, calls the on maybe lines but

call profitable any the publicly that But you'd transportation the you insurers. about on margins you're have of that segments segment on seeing talked one have the Some changes transportation guys to traded like trends? most of loss out

Carl Lindner

so. don't think I

and I've prospective I numbers trends being X%. ratio loss or what tried And want using instance. probably breakeven we're conservative auto think we're that's profit. in calls, using X% where we loss We we the trend think commercial look we've good. for around for took when past talked ratio they and underwriting think think kind it not about prospective for be, I've about that rate I mentioned pretty I been We to stay liability the of -- are about with pretty trends those, to that at our at

the using, I past tend some loss set And part our of our pricing, in in we depending prospective I almost liability, think we is mentioned ratio business XX% reserving that on our trend to on business, what the we're and look that. of as excess as how the at

I really changed. think don't So that's

for think I been we've much the for in year. kind that of mode pretty

Michael Zaremski

although lower just run lastly, interest terms But just was this 'XX? does the bake gears that maybe up. it's macro great portfolio more returns rates investment on and just the a And answered. weaker the been Okay. switching in a are is already XQ some guide and some given of trying environment, imply alternative -- of X%, to Or in -- maybe

to trying that. -- about how just So think to

Stephen Lindner

tell arrived Craig. number. we Yes. I'll X% at This how the is you

the extraordinary We As were And of in neighborhood renewal also XX%. in some the in you something multifamily push incredible of run recall, returns of able properties. just are know, as couple rates levels. sales at I about were to alternatives an the multifamily. XX% invested We've of had last had the we years,

is and increases will we're still in type back asset we're instead I'd the the would it X% We So year, to to say normal like view our more But still like environment class. there. really more a our positioning We that normal back a in between increases somewhere of I X% rental that getting -- the mean we rental guess this rates. environment rates. now be We're now. double-digit

NOI. that So drive will the

reasonably around value strong market was growth average the at we're The conservative. X%. on above that markets right we're year-end in, transactions think are cap portfolio that And seeing We marks not the the the rate X%.

have see positioning increases don't We couple we like really So the selling years. in of the see we we last like our don't ourselves mark-to-market, and there. large properties

anyway, high for the portfolio. which single-digit piece XX% multifamily real looking a estate the about is So of on return piece, the

us market. for equity XX% value. The we more substantially alternatives, the the to traditional piece outperformed is the in that private the tougher balance much is year, of Last that's

up, I think around some believe, was our S&P equity private was or and X% the XX% so. down I

private basis. know, you As equity a done lag are marks on typically

the cautious So traditional -- that's it being -- outlook I to piece -- private the we're hope value. a on us in just our little much comes for for that's though harder given more that piece. the alternatives. the that's equity X% piece stronger It's hope we assuming. the we're early that $X.X strength billion returns how the that year, at in the of But of arrived what on I on the number than market are

Operator

Instructions]. [Operator

Meyer question KBW. Shields next comes from of Our

Meyer Shields

guess, start with. I question, to quick A

I every think modeling was reserve a it's question. through a other talk XXXX. that. about than in quarter adverse question specialty the going I could reality you some And segment had more in development hoping what's But of

Brian Hertzman

This Brian. Sure. is Sure.

specialty So facility. our primarily reinsurance the internal is other

So take corporately of individual we that's in business than business our units. on the do where more we

adverse lines, in there participated inflation exposed the social seeing we're what So have is unit. the type excess the in the development we where liability above of some lines of business reinsurance

the So is social inflation there. number driving

our know, -- are we're in obviously as reserving. We conservative you

segment an million social that businesses out we're place be -- the feel we are the facility. Casualty like of that in now, adverse the Specialty driving going part and but a in the year our of the into million $XX for inflation good coming exposed as we what's would development $XX So that's reinsurance quarter

Meyer Shields

for premium XXXX? the And helpful. us that That's net growth Can macroeconomic underpins sense as question. you your other give a expectations growth Okay. then one to written

Carl Lindner

a guidance so sure or more we couched we've But it's that, of GDP in in an economic versus cases. based -- mini businesses. and has an And whether our clearly, impact of with things each are whether equine of -- impact or really mortality based really own of on kind has premium slowed kind given different or economy some down workers' in comp our different slowing in definitely number not that down I'm are of off underpinned other that their it's that. that. off payroll premiums That than the businesses in in sales environments have

Meyer Shields

the is conservative. Okay. growth premium if which that delta between fairly and Understood. is Like pricing X%, third the seems question

Carl Lindner

of a fairly -- future of going the that for down is crop we're month and won't the As I to try sure to it's know projecting until average to prices the be before, mentioned -- for X%. soybean business corn's February. We -- we

that more of the know what is. February at we'll exactly end So

entrants inflation back to new come haunt those that. has any impact. in that like and to have the businesses of I in mentioned D&O doesn't high in the think that excess are have on will sense call, jumped some establish us then some earlier make particularly position. -- I things a point, exposure social think that at And public competition That X where in an trying I liability,

So I doubt that. no have about

Operator

just I'm you. call questions closing time. turn Diane Thank for no remarks. to at this will the any further over showing I back Weidner

Diane Weidner

prepared session, concludes for morning. you next again talking remarks Q&A you. forward This our and all you with we to quarter. joining Thank us Thank all this and look

Operator

Thank you. Ladies you and conclude Thank gentlemen, this today's does conference. for all participating.

You may great a day. Have disconnect. now

Diane Weidner	VP, IR
Carl Lindner	Co-President, Co-CEO & Director
Stephen Lindner	Co-President, Co-CEO & Director
Brian Hertzman	SVP & CFO
Jon Newsome	Piper Sandler & Co.
Michael Zaremski	BMO Capital Markets
Meyer Shields	KBW

American Financial (AFG) 2 Feb 232022 Q4 Earnings call transcript