Antero Resources (AR) 15 Feb 242023 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Company Profile

Participants

Brendan Krueger	executive
Paul Rady	executive
David Cannelongo	executive
Justin B. Fowler	executive
Michael Kennedy	executive
Arun Jayaram	analyst
Bertrand Donnes	analyst
Jacob Roberts	analyst
Roger Read	analyst
Nitin Kumar	analyst
Neil Mehta	analyst
David Deckelbaum	analyst
Kevin MacCurdy	analyst

Call transcript

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Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Antero Resources Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Brendan Krueger, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead, Brendan.

Brendan Krueger

Thank you. everyone. morning, Good joining Conference for Antero's Quarter Fourth Thank us Investor Call. XXXX you for a through for We'll operating minutes few spend going then open highlights, the we'll it up Q&A. and and financial to direct www.anteroresources.com, presentation at have that I would be we also you the during our where earnings homepage separate a reviewed to provided will website of call call. like today's

to press financial the release measures. contain may refer Please call measures, financial measures. including comparable certain such most non-GAAP reconciliations important GAAP for our Today's disclosures regarding earnings to

now Joining Rady, Transportation; me Paul. to Vice Michael Dave are Marketing. Senior on turn President the call will of Justin Senior and Chairman, Kennedy, the today Paul President call Cannelongo, and President; CEO Gas Vice and over Marketing Fowler, of Liquids Natural CFO; I

Paul Rady

morning, everyone. Efficiencies. and Drilling start I'll presentation, on my Completion our of Slide Brendan. Thanks, Good #X titled comments

significant performance XXXX as our was operating for Antero a advances. transformational made year

and set Our throughout Drilling teams Completions the and of a industry year. records company number

an example, a since per XX% drilled lateral of decline in of XXXX. X.X feet days averaged XXXX, As XX,XXX days

XXXX from side, Completion average improvement more averaged XXXX per XX% to stages a day, the On XX% nearly XX compared an than and XXXX the day levels. increase stages completion

capital of averaged a significantly course. it these of decreased spudding the number Shorter operational XXX entire XXXX. pad efficiency, an reflect takes days cycle results turning first of The that Since higher and our shown on times from times pad sales. just improvements means shorter of cycle by to days XXXX, the times as cycle impressive XX% total to have the in bottom was average on times, page. cycle These

maintenance this gains the XXXX. momentum efficiencies improve. XXXX year, and productivity well to performance drive in compared well reduced last maintenance fact program our budget. Most our capital highlighted by capital capital importantly, addition, to This actually volumes X% a while targeting a grew that In operating continues is these

we to Efficiencies Capital to flat, day. prior production is Bcf to between over expect Drilling capital compared averaging to Now let's and Completion a In Lower titled, X.X Slide the Maintenance to #X down be XX% year. be equivalent turn our Meanwhile, and Translate XXXX, in XXXX expected X.X

budget to capital XXXX is $XXX drop in million X rigs year. below capital plan maintenance drop to the of midpoint crew captured completion rig of Our a over this $XXX XXXX. now of last allowed gains XXXX. million us beginning for in million at we and We over just our operating $XXX crew then that drilling efficiency X X the average end year The and the in maintenance at completion drilling spent to program

capital our budget Also reduced base rate. is decline a contributing to lower

is mid- decline maintenance to production year As rate we our our to program, rate X flat. enter This lower range. capital in the less low capital hold decline low-XX% of substantially requires

last year of to In in the and million to spending asset This of Antero the high-quality significant compared capital total, $XXX level. reduction while addition, compared budget the production million result we at maintaining down flexibility million that reduced $XX to over land will this capital our In have. $XXX is midpoint highlights XXXX. base capital million same in $XX

year any even last flow of cash lowest environment. COVID positive outlook cash when calendar despite ahead is gas challenging that natural occur current in natural free This outside gas the to generation year. to is prices, look As in is to This positive the capital considering the recent expected impressive we the for with unhedged strip free in NGL XX flow is more XXXX, increase price today's flow during the cash significant at savings, free combined year these the being years. generate expected price

I'm fundamentals, his NGL and our liquids current Transportation, comments. the Cannelongo Vice turn and of going on it Marketing Dave over Senior for Liquids to to touch President to Now,

David Cannelongo

has picture improved winter despite The shipping in consistently the for to the due macro and Paul. export materially challenges Thanks, global strong a this seen high waterborne levels NGLs domestic environment. combination demand of

X-year and fall strengthening $X.XX with a to strong rising the last propane, to of relationship X-year Antero's of just from NGL illustrates end CX+ $XX shown price winter months XXXX barrel the NGLs as propane result WTI tightened gallon. Slide and XX% return few CX+ inventories to we've as largely on weather, increasing historical NGL $XX since barrels stocks XX the percent propane on market Slide propane from declined as driven currently. the average months, high #X to a Focusing of today, a driven as range per seen bullish moved by XX% of have average October. This exports the and on million from increased In average by prices inventories a barrel #X. has in recent levels, over sentiment prices the above has have during to between per WTI

addition averaged In record per year propane million have year to X.XX a impress. continued Last to barrels for for the on day fundamentals, #X. as strong year the propane exports XXXX, Slide full was domestic shown exports, which

averaging major These nearly on last occurring and exports has above continuing the Suez -- affecting Red of the and year. are XXXX exports off an barrels are strong East risks volatility the started million also day, year-to-date, XXX,XXX strong through in despite barrels X.XX shipping increase geopolitical passage Sea. routes, rising global the day per through weeks Canal same passages Middle with Canal in per restrictions Panama including

The in shown of resulted graph Panama on as the longer limitations Hope in being the cost the up Slide a shipping the Carrier, of record routes to of to Canal or Very on around is #X. increased of the VLGC metric end levels Baltic Large gas tied which shipping primarily XXXX, at Cape petroleum Gas due a liquefied right transits Good on that of on LPG rate, capacity

Panama carriers have LPG global on Canal of Canal has eased reversed However, passages this the the with result a as in trend January recently restrictions as increasing shipping effects the of reshuffling.

XXXX in VLGC the of is for graph typical growth double in #X, more altered a expected to deliveries than with XXXX, delivered. challenges the global have supply are grow was ships market being continue times that right to transit year the yearly Slide XX left deliveries on shipping more XX the U.S. the in newbuild with These year routes. increased VLGC delivery. which export deliveries facing the current on in time is seen last LPG at occurring banner with and as Additionally,

the and out of over in lower CX+ directly of by being to are and spread at the rates our exports on potential expected price Antero volumes limited constraints of towards Hook has from current Antero domestic terminal production, current docks, shipping not barrels Marcus reminder, able at levels export a Coast indices. until more As capture with XX% which will propane the ability and between Pennsylvania international XXXX. export the benefit Antero's rates expansions international by to are skewed the high impacted capacity for export butane. Also, pricing and heavily butane, Gulf and propane utilization our

to morning I be have to the will this market. Gas remarks fundamentals be acknowledging poised discussed, it differentiator to these over with is I'll NGL gas exposure Marketing, President XXXX just my supportive natural our in that a gas to pricing Natural discuss which Fowler yet conclude other our another year compared producers. of Senior Justin natural when to With turn Vice that, I'll

Justin B. Fowler

U.S. government. Regardless this the on of recent pause pause, the is growth past, on Thanks, of Dave. but from the on decade. the have this that approvals slide will into Global of little in from expect Growing the This LNG start I end shown titled, market. the very LNG LNG impacts we reflect Slide facility updated we #X potential demand duration impact a is to

fact, In facilities LNG X stacked be in our chart only could impacted.

over that those still see The This the the the Bcf Bcf higher incremental more highlighted projects by to to substantial increase the gas XXXX. capacity demand closely day prices. in per boxes. end export You of This bring U.S. is XX expect of natural current prices per remaining nearly day a of international during demand XX.X U.S. to would tie red that time. LNG by result we Bcf XX

natural to Hub. to LNG these Henry growth U.S. positioned particularly uniquely near prices, prices benefit demand from linked is higher expected Antero gas

Transport to Next, titled, U.S. the #XX turn let's All Gulf Not to Coast Slide is Equal.

gas a natural we substantially our the out including As basin, approximately LNG all XX% to of of reminder, sell corridor.

the Our and gas pricing at to Gulf Coast firm X transportation exposure growing This in points Tier corridor. with slide our X direct LNG LNG portfolio selling us significant pricing. illustrates benefit the provides along importantly, along Gulf demand into the Tier Coast

doorstep. XXXX. a export Bcf in the could in peers XXXX continue which Southeast points, that per XXXX X sell our which widen NYMEX of to TGP to firm pricing have delivery also Antero to premiums X service trading think prices the reflect and increasing represents above Further, transportation, increased Tier an were number volumes current on of as stars that points, gas map to LNG X, X highlight of the XX% current X.X the Tier buildout. Meanwhile, beyond, Tier NYMEX sales of directed XX% in on placed back and to which Yellow which and Antero represents negotiated NYMEX Index, currently in XXXX. the higher. LNG directly the pushes of where XXX including premium facilities there bring are LNG both additional appreciate $X.XX Gulf also $X.XX will are pricing Based and strip, almost their delivers day over Columbia Antero time is with in Onshore strategically we premiums Tier to Gulf A&R

the As volumes X average the of of pricing. depicted Tier top sell compares XX% XX% our on gas in which peers, pie Tier the Gulf This sells the to side of Antero at in X Tier their pricing. X of directed and its left-hand chart slide,

previously to would the or LNG versus The already for these in certain X by export next more that further facilities firm that as Bcf, see due the LNG the increases sales to NYMEX years over premium Antero end at points ahead the priced valuable on received be we higher pipelines points compete had this sales growing X into transportation the these LNG Looking nearly as in much expect market. by upside XXXX of supply. XXXX existing expected could Haynesville delays even our they at capacity been year. Delays downstream make also

would This I touch titled, demand the over slide like burn Demand Power Continues years. power XX Lastly, demand to #XX last illustrates Burn trends. power on Slide to burn Outperform.

and AI forecasts majority or demand flat burn Continued even we that higher demand. clean for annually will reliable, natural you toward leads the This demand shift structural power with with Despite generation high-powered increase a a gas burn to coal XXXX from been power everything to to demand power switching, vehicles burn to centers has that gas higher affordable going data exports project have of demand increasing which natural natural base creates and level power there believe is lower gas than electric rising expectations. We LNG along experienced forward. significantly see, the ever in past. once combined electrification demand, in demand outperforming again continue Mexico growth,

While prices in the storage and natural fundamentals expect we prices there support periods challenges, certainly lead coming these provide years. to higher gas are to near-term will of

With over that, Mike I CFO. turn will Kennedy, to Antero's it

Michael Kennedy

Thanks, Justin.

I'd discuss our position. multi-decade to inventory like First,

combined years. inventory drilling efforts, #XX, peer billion report. Mcfe we acquire have acquisitions compares years. on inventory across a this to is Antero Inventory. natural that X from inventory over time our data is development most contrast, past titled Low at chart spent invested targeted third-party that Largest footprint. a has Slide through to drilling AR the our $XX gas our the after This $XXX Turning note peers organic have locations our $X.XX XX important has based to the within on Cost comparison over leasing million In sub per It group positions

average more program. less of less In On have million per for core drilling nearly at Antero add been less able than average half $X average, XXXX, this locations per program. location $X cost over to added offsetting cost This million, per location million peer through the $X than we XXXX its is the than than acquisitions. location an premium XXX organically for locations of

its Mcfe. efficiency the operating of efficiency quality compares capital the XX% required gas comments. I'd touched amount Next, to $X.XX peer the the in Antero on Slide company. of of targets. comparing and each or has below is chart that on his go Mcfe like on lowest per peer #XX Paul achieve to asset a just capital deeper per This capabilities of peer natural measure at This production of efficiency capital is little the group average $X.XX group capital The capital when important Mcfe. per improvements

have shows really Antero. natural capital #XX Drilling change These Slide change the This year-over-year on for peer-leading on estimates at gas are in and and capital the efficiency in year-over-year the plot chart production on the magnifies that capital we those the XXXX away for announced y-axis scatter for The Completion x-axis far on and have Completion production production, peers. the capital-efficient are based the you invested by compare not. estimates guidance When deliver that those and Appalachia. in that guidance company and for Drilling operator to consensus the most the targets

Completion in be exposure. Land to #XX nearly of Slide summarizes high to and efficiency gains slide, which compared of total turn the down and top is titled, plus Free side last the million at our Let's budget, XXXX left-hand Breakeven, combined $XXX expected Flow cash to capital NGL our year. benefits Drilling capital capital Beginning the

Moving bottom in NGL $X XXXX of the more down left-hand than strip barrel side higher than the the slide, is XXXX. to per

in a flow. change in prices in million every drive of change in Thus, thumb, As increase $XXX cash XXXX rule NGL NGL results $XX prices dollar higher cash flow. in million

focus, In incremental being weakness to compared million NGL the $XXX even XXXX combination, cash in while and gas unhedged. the XXXX capital natural efficiencies from the flow is market, offsets approximately our in more of than result and

Slide to #XX. free slide cash compares breakeven levels. Turning This flow

capital our results lowest and free peers. to Our the in cash requirements gas exposure low maintenance high breakeven liquids price flow among natural unhedged

shareholder significant is As to best create ahead, positioned we believe value. we Antero look

as NGL to Hub highest diversity production leverage LPG, amount prices. gas and producer center of volumes, to of the which the rising the product of LNG exporter the natural have We largest demand creates Henry and hedge substantial exposure lowest

sales addition, In LNG prices our along the have our upside realized basis to points due premium fairway.

strong cash exposure natural the efficient breakeven move we sheet breakevens. with free demand as our the capital projects. significant in upside from with are of advantage towards the substantial combined liquids a the downside the demand LNG balance most we from LNG to producer Antero a places on takeaway Combination in expected and the our lowest through U.S. center, flow Finally, gas lowest protection production, increase near-term competitive price

now will operator turn over call questions. With to that, I the the for

Operator

Our first Instructions] Co. from from question Arun is [Operator today & coming Jayaram JPMorgan Chase

Arun Jayaram

Monday Dave, mix shows you that related is your I'm pricing, between Mont at LPG and pricing and for a weekly to being it My your global kind Belvieu perhaps first looking Dave. update question provided about of on pricing mix. XX-XX

flexibility international your leverage, the any you you increase, are in trends? your you strength what market, the Given -- can that do mean if realizations? quantify so, given maybe it, have export could for And just call to strong

David Cannelongo

Yes.

it's So exposure, barrel. we -- when overall we really on that talk the CX+ about

that. utilize XX% marketing no, products. other But than exporting in the even it where we're I times we think that, do so calls. that about There's propane, summer pentanes, the we've mean to talked with not do exporting in we're XX%, prior the those our have isobutane, plan that our of we flexibility I

So always about. you're in to domestic stay the is to why relationship see going that's that you're which going that XX-XX talking pool,

Arun Jayaram

as then those was realizations what that kind looking the by costs to net net last a costs? there show Belvieu. update, international And Mont $X.XX could international the about as uplift gallon provide? of just shipping and between delta are How you pricing between And at much propane normalize, per impacted -- shipping of $X.XX

David Cannelongo

Yes.

pretty mean this So rates dramatically. the a recently, seen year quite Baltic seen that I bit. we've you've that -- collapsed

that. so from we And benefited

balance gallon. think today, $X.XX seen trading, propanes you've I a month, morning, of this

that the freight the been costs of has that decreased. fact driven have a So by lot

Asia, levels in at pricing you're in we to strong destination summertime. at actually this price naphtha. relative look propane see winter seeing not to similar you the pricing It's If what would

really So in has freight the allowed run-up the been Mont collapsing to by Belvieu Belvieu have rates pricing that rise. driven

we've Coast highly talked The the we stocks, other Gulf very utilized. see as that piece, I with is our portfolio about, are think,

the they think until XXXX, wanes. And you'll more season, as of and limited. And and so in out pressure facilities. expand spring export domestic move will demand be to summer that into We those you try see

premium And ability our as of Hook, will able advantage the our so well. that firm Marcus dock with rise that to we'll be that you directly at get value that access capacity out and to take more of

us of working the X allowed as dynamics have So get improved and are, not the in more to things kind our ability favor, benefit to just at waterborne price, somewhat producers then than to freight others. Belvieu other landlocked the Mont

Arun Jayaram

Okay. one And for Justin. a I have one quick

timing see some of pricing of pipeline given Justin, kind that you is what corridor? terms -- by in Tier in momentum if impact the there, the X LNG issues Louisiana of delayed to do

Justin B. Fowler

once gas a any to see over moment. we basis. start Henry competition the enters on would to that gas start they are of with once we to that seeing $X.XX anywhere Pass at sometime to would basis Plaquemine continue increase introduce bring And delays and Henry range less that from later versus keeping those has expect showing market we Right $X.XX forward Arun, eye positive to see the it to and year, coming base more just the to Hub facility, into increase, on. can Southeast this region, continued it's expect now, in that Plaquemine as an to Golden down going A&R

Operator

Donnes next coming today Our Securities. from question is Truist from Bertrand

Bertrand Donnes

of inventory inventory your years, But half at you still XX Slide I'd be running maybe XX sitting On ago, not out and low-cost inventory. the point. enough, at split of say group. to could you into a moved was while outlined And XX, one in company years it the XX you're when

just can get there question divesting party the end of table a So then some is, gas broader at years? Or some in contango? you really stack. of inventory simply X to look the the refuse this that's be, the maybe the to X to is to just come natural parties interest And outer price in does current question would the

Michael Kennedy

first liquids. one, that we a In XX no, of the Virginia. half it years, consolidator is fairway the liquids West Well, are of of About

other our eastern half of The gas is side the which dry option, field. our is on

So to us liquids very good dry dry toggle today. Liquids obviously option, is a accretive between it gas. flexibility gas allows that and provides

over get to Henry we the liquids compared uplift. think from I the price. Hub $X.XX

we've been So on that. focused

midstream are our liquids scale that. to to want with the high. very we continue entry And we So barriers the transport, the to own and and consolidate

that really no attributes. develop those outside of could So one having

So to we and inventory. continue to consolidate and of the more look own more

And on quite your that. second question, understand didn't really I

On the the we're contango liquids let's prices natural looking gas, of really economics. driving say, -- the more at

look more the we to liquids that's, gas. So the than

Bertrand Donnes

Yes.

was I gas years. even negotiations only buyer Sorry, the in give agree are you're kind in Or on say, you side, just won't price lower and I acquiring see the price, wondering, on the able maybe any of parties near-term the value higher does the for to doing, the future? I always both outer

Michael Kennedy

We on most organic been really our focused Yes. add where That's We're the leasing. in value. discussions. we haven't any

As location. per million In million $X M&A, per $X over it's I less mentioned, than it's location.

So ground you're you're dealing leasing, in of with that negotiations their of just brick-by-brick, the develop organic not you game really leaseholders enjoy type that when those minerals. you're doing

Bertrand Donnes

included second years. assume year 'XX into the And sense. next few then significant lower are that your it. guidance some Makes peers of amount this of I capital is would over for doesn't much a the have And full build-out infrastructure just earmarking question

maybe you're your that overhead you able kind about how talk to efficiently have? that operate could So peers of without

Michael Kennedy

built the all largest processing Midstream. XX% and Midstream high we Yes. Midstream, and pressure own transport to firm of have pressure Appalachia this liquid and connects that. we in With has system Antero low then the and Antero out Antero

water. on building Midstream as lower and last because they those really Antero mile all investments out capital has it's Antero their time is with and made already we've just capital their Midstream So low of came XX%. But are pressure much well in in that

have It's reasons the made in the of already midstream So and is unconstrained don't constraints midstream those all we've one E&P. investments. We we're already ground. everything the

Operator

Pickering, Holt. Jacob question from Next from coming Roberts Tudor, is

Jacob Roberts

capital on the could guide. there arise, need ability the other is But into might We any to curious, have activity given further be the actions you guys running preferred, or outlook appreciate lower without that further that commentary should baked plan for pricing and the XXXX? other reduce into contract an issues

Michael Kennedy

construct generate always when to of we free capital first Yes, cash is course, the the flow. plan, filter

that. we're stacked X to We on We're X rigs very focused down rigs. X from rigs. of So our

of spot liquids our So natural down prices. and it crew. in pad a and made is and We the to prices that crew that's prices, scheduled completion X a does complete quarter, to X-rig one to crews. We That third more X gas completion program but on spot also just crew. it have liquids highly flexible dependent released bit,

That's toggle $XX to So have million, we do lower. call the ability about it.

toggle at cash definitely could strip, And is which we're than a prices, you about flow. $X.XX free that. gas lower still today's So generating

quite prices that So liquids efficiency, And prices about liquids of it's top the mentioned the really amazing. that's so capital really I $X.XX the due and right prices. by on liquids now to driven $X.XX, $X.XX, do and the add

we'll continue so really on flow. free monitor those generating to And cash focus and

Jacob Roberts

mean Great. we potential what Shell for as second could the provide materializes, hoping We upside the some And it a heading And commentary you this mix year? toward progress the product on volumes were that if to facility. could question. through

Michael Kennedy

our just did we is last Yes. I teens. that's flat assumes year, it of around XX,XXX day, Shell assuming is low in ethane mean That where at the to year. performs were like we're guidance barrels a and kind No, which last year. last

thinking really Henry around not that, It's price. it's Hub-based material the not So pricing. volumes on ethane a about and increased

similar very what stream. we So in get it's it if the remains to

better it the not that if So performed than but year, a bit a guidance. volume in baking of we have last would tailwind little

Operator

is Read Wells next from question from coming Your Roger Fargo.

Roger Read

asked X and the to come I'm the charts question third last going in quarter, here, Page I call, a in back example. probably best the is to the

efficiencies. D&C Just continued in improvements

and cycle to basis at in the regular averages XXX day relative those right, luck? that on Is past how a about the efficiencies. the bridge performance? was a curious What we maybe the both, your between best help those between scenarios I can X of think thing? D&C achieve gap the the it best just difference to for case X performances, Is the asking, average or and going without between, good the a reduced kind you difference was us continuing forward? stages Looking say, just times seasonal XX

Michael Kennedy

around XX, Yes. mean the pumping much really hours day, on we was XX the And XX hours hit get and And much just maintenance your we when I it No, day were completions. on that stages. generally [indiscernible] it's pumping a hours when above you hit XX, the lower greater. pump

pumping XX that's and that's thing was would our maybe really consistently same X,XXX X, and you to which as to was day all day, at. drilling, amazing prior culminate in the were So hitting it's guidance then where XX XX, laterals then and the we 'XX the of teens amazing. have an average what there X what was average we some XX, greater consistently in feet started hitting stages issues, on where but in that high compared of XXXX. stages drilling X really per And And are day, in hours a

improves. already amazing per So drilling This we do days XXk that think improvements.

drill that's longer from averages. XXk those X X have to longer to days now and about helps that So we gone really continuing and and laterals down per

Roger Read

you way definitely Yes, it's been leading it, to are impressive... in everybody who's all amazing the what do able -- been

Michael Kennedy

by XX,XXX our lateral up highest is in we're the which per far company's to in XXXX, over Yes, feet history. --

Roger Read

these if way of cash going And Yes. gas with sheet dividend. to Yes. where think about balance prices forward? the along the Once on of the repo, Obviously, us use year, about excess is dividend, that's return forward? already. way get to it's to it think should variable of not Well, days agree you what share the side. those other done, want cash this going the we you is lines, right get one want you What

Michael Kennedy

quarter the facility. cash quarter down was to do our to down paid debt million. think we fourth At We'll well, down is Yes. get first had the as I debt. in Like in We $XXX cash -- first free it it credit year-end, with free said, close our pay it continue million, $XXX flow flow. with

would XXXX facility in use in kind amount. of free that but So $XXX we approximate credit cash range the numbers, our Then of are is be all included flow. the -- be first that have million also

$X that the you we that's to go at these kind level. the of share then debt said So buybacks levels achieved, majority buybacks. And We cash valuations. the -- to billion these down favor gets flow to at the of share once will tend free

cash to buybacks. order the of then next kind that's the pay after for use, of and So majority debt free call the goes it, flow billion, down the $X.X that share

Operator

Nitin next Kumar [Operator Instructions] Mizuho Our coming from Securities. is from question

Nitin Kumar

like, pretty could guess, work the I does you're reducing XXXX, certainly the going into had you strong I If activity. end XXXX. on appreciate look of So that XXXX what you've right? done maybe delve improving capital into efficiencies momentum for

if activity without on Just this what decline any? for trying trajectory, your to looking would guidance, have of the in understand, impact XXXX

Michael Kennedy

the to it's capital obviously Not X.X year X.X When cycle ] We really any, it's maintenance [ efficiencies about with times. last we ]. think outperformed completion capital, level. [ the maintenance and

we forecast. better had than We are

in And so going ] wrapped we've $XXX X.X now the it's forecast our day efficiencies similar hold that [ range-ish. per Bcfe X.X year, million those to that [ in forward, ] to very this

Nitin Kumar

realizations? to market. up company, signing Any contracts when centers your long-term it. transportation the we're good for strategic Got where on that in power That's opportunities up sort the demand gen solidify corridor firm market could you those the here. helpful. started targeted Really of with with you slides and certainly of LNG kind the link Paul, to

Michael Kennedy

hefty that for commitments. all And some at looked and as We've that those. already transport We've come They control we the know, firm fairly time. commitments. made you with it's have quite

let achieved we and They up type through people lot flow to We're that spot our will a be these pricing. think term. this pricing, for Hub we'll the but we'll for uplift Henry transport those without just beneficiary what price the going any deals will all of our not kind compete of and those. long see linked commitments signing prices international we've So we're firm having accrue of us. gas think we realize and it, of to to corridor is, kind down We're

Operator

question Goldman Mehta Sachs. Neil from next is Our coming from

Neil Mehta

capital on and Congrats the improvement in guide. the efficiency

question. Just a macro

So as to is propane you investment bit community has Slide on the really getting the as propane. the X and the about talk to first Asia Can inventories get to little of important visibility one about X be markets, a been do year. back guess continues there. main driver And you what I and an out for think harder us we sometimes think

how you of propane think the and China ounces about talk Asia XXXX. about feeds So into

Justin B. Fowler

think propane I there they had through, the since level. propane adjustment mid-November, a December, a EIA. inventories. are surprise overstating from I'll They on really couple talk I mid-to-late was -- a had calculation mean, things the error, inventory one, Yes, they so were there call about of it,

and the we we strong and So all got see January, and continued nice bump then stay an as moved better we to initial January, there affected. of demand exports than late we December at but weather, to cold losses never a, the export We into X.X of resulted in the strong weather. same call had that cold weren't was as domestically some get maybe and time docks weeks some well production started it,

And a So in trend weeks data I well in there we're with chart line things as the December adjustment as X-year now the good very in think see of that that's much January. average. just what couple seeing of is you

withdrawal be, call call if down the that we would of it, XX continues, to at And it, million expect the XX so million-barrel season. to, range to end

think were I average, the We circumstances. the ourselves did. stocks X-year narrative range top So propane some from didn't the that the X-year that way see took from in play I the see to dire of pleased and barrels the ultimately think out it -- to moving of that it

kind big into International propane online. range. demand Petchem margins demand have up. the lower a rates moving East the of which where the added in showed are On in here move overall, given has And moving up we that's as XX% happen. that it capacity are China capacity. XX% in all going question, PDH to of the to that come they right, PDH the has chunks to used low, we've what about utilization talked utilization continued isn't But down absolute absolute surprising to seen slide but steadily

out get a And amount they ready post optimistic there, in reopening that is think China, Gulf to I a lot so place, being COVID not think in us things things of benefit stocks for thought it be to of our probably upside economically, again, U.S. U.S., instantaneously, certainly whether all be we'll that We that of of if there's it particular, of in Coast supply East back Coast many would. from of in or be up, expand function We able capacity bounced call They XXXX. ramped improve the remain to should the with all not is will had the we of time. can think capacity. but as able won't here demand with they've in the

time, and are That's is import initiatives Petchem the the that's obvious been because globally. about they've lower over of things have most. stickier, things the expansions turned There give things despite much those rate It's in at -- So so ResCom coming big look demand out higher that. at resulted looking visibility to capacity. the individual utilization on demand you we harder or on countries, talking real. of growing more certainly expansions just They've terminals. But the

Neil Mehta

story, Appalachia. the at helpful. might recognizing really to it's really on gas this, U.S. Yes. to it data in X extent showing, most of liquid the to you And great view we've you and the on Permian make this how do you're so surprised month And that? Bcf but resolve It's side? What a do have believe close what's Bcf date, U.S. the been That's that production And in driving side, the production. XXX dry does then of it? you and more its surprising objective is upside,

Michael Kennedy

Yes.

to count to start rig X kind response in that's rigs of XX out from level. high period May, that's We of to time thinking after months slides really we had haven't a surprised time work to frame required that -- there the drop through see last started the you'd when historically the production kind that

yet. You haven't that seen

opposite. saw You actually the

in production. surprising We're that us. gas to X push So been hoping that last of it's has kind

and You in when winter falls demand it then historically off, rise gas heading kind because Appalachian season. shoulder that's do see months the there's during into of the the

the occurs counts lower that to in see hopefully, continue So rig and then you oil windows. Permian and

So had effect. some hopefully, that

that's market. But not really a kind XXX Bcf of the question, it's XXX Bcf market,

activity not during or balance need shut-ins, season -- production the some So either activity lower to market. shut-ins, or to from see levels shut-ins lower the gas lower levels you'll shoulder from

So XXX time will that Bcf tell holds. whether

Operator

Next coming David TD question from from is Cowen. Deckelbaum

David Deckelbaum

touch just And growth maybe some bring I benefits up to wanted on -- just the NGL into ethane on 'XX. side. wanted the I to there's obviously,

of just if like completing this heavy driving you're a bit activity fewer wonder of NGL -- Because on little could breakdown to growth? I you directing corridor, a what's little So XX% NGL give around lateral you're the bit obviously, feet year. the more looks that still overall, but color

a the situation? some the side? incremental ethane this well-performance contribution is from So processing Or of this really is

Michael Kennedy

our just just I at in more that of be Btu It's of focus -- David, X,XXX well No. kind those to and look That's I wells. we're count really X%. just corridors up we're X,XXX you more when it, in to type continues [indiscernible] continued the of think flat. mean

maintenance Your decline more a the grew it the We is of kind up gas growing and 'XX, bit, capital grew you've on XX% But gas NGL liquids was we mean little last our X%. but that's year calculation. when I allowing that really was seen X% in that to growth. liquids we're only is of the kind of story our gas declining, the

and a natural X,XXX of wells outcome our kind field liquid drier just letting natural it's type on really just So focusing the areas decline. gas, of Btu the of the

David Deckelbaum

a appreciate to the crews completion I be at Or some mix the future, [indiscernible]. scenario a thinking 'XX rigs should we the at if in where guess just there about looking was in that X to to inherently point would gas X I back portfolio? lead that. greater you in were and get mix you're that

Michael Kennedy

We years, is the good David, It After liquid this at. dry would a initially. years, for XX next got inventory, But we're gas. mix the XX of kind yes. XX be years. where for Not

flat. double-digit was rigs, is you it the the range, of similar liquids kind outcomes to where X but in the grow last gas So probably the year

David Deckelbaum

And I I sneak appreciate in. that. just if could one

budget is after land opportunity this limited reduced it the were just year? successful that year, very more guys you last Just there intentional restraint? Or is

Michael Kennedy

No. when you're that to that also to -- it our $XXX year, $XX Like it And less wells completion I last million. each capital of development maintenance million said, and down this of million drilling decreases. you mean we efficiencies a $XX year, it's at have result was year. was

working big build a have time, those land years' trying for do you where next the really on really build focusing call NRI, the up you're component up X it, So that. interest,

that So less land. And the we have when you have less period, X-year the it's then you -- consolidator wells West the in of liquids fairway are not Virginia. in

and So to hard anyone those for other it's very come than capture us. in locations

in have and just said, right we're going small locations. leasing -- midstream, -- it's door have I like we the next It's We contiguous. very these

So we're the natural consolidator.

and just rigs It's X crew. when X we you completion less. have over X aren't next opportunities those the less are wells only years running So

Operator

from MacCurdy is coming question from Next Pickering Energy Partners. Kevin

Kevin MacCurdy

a of markets guidance. production of question, be earlier. how the you will declines think you in solved? shutting I will where that production kind well-received on the your question the the have where In macro Do Congratulations gas an was asked from? just do get follow-up have it's to come opinion or one and opinion, who gas or XXXX gas

Michael Kennedy

across from gas there's natural economic. natural come today's should gas because strip, are think stations at plays that many It I all don't

to liquids environment. gas sort You have economics like in of to make have any have today's we price

substantial there's takeaway. where no that there's doesn't and have would basin So say real any basis I liquids and a also

should much gas probably So that's activity. less now stations natural have all right pretty

that think day, naturally the because went at economics I always out. end the will So occur of

So will think I occur. that

I dictating it's as to activity. it's gas going and we a you dry constrained, think the shut-ins. lower whatever, see will economics And activity. natural most some shoulder see plays have always play season to into likely kind liquids continue go But of if plus, that's

occasional spot see time, you'll XXX occasional some Bcf events a seems decrease that will it's day So Over day, although or there. on shut-ins to that like that.

Operator

question-and-answer I'd further session. to We like the comments. over end floor back Brendan reached to the closing for of any our turn

Brendan Krueger

Yes. out Thank today's for Please any with us questions. Thank joining you. further you call. reach on

Operator

today's and teleconference That webcast. does you. Thank conclude

wonderful today. have your may day. disconnect We thank and your You line you at time, for a this participation

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