NTRA - Earnings call transcript Q2 2022

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Operator

Welcome to Natera's 2022 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

Following management’s prepared remarks, we will hold a Q&A session.

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, August 4, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Michael Brophy, Chief Financial Officer. ahead. go Please

Michael Brophy

afternoon. to Good of for our joining Thanks, the Thank results call discuss quarter of conference operator. you our XXXX. second

CEO; Manager line, Steve live call via the joined and broadcast our Solomon On is being Moshkevich, Oncology. of I'm General webcast. Today's conference Chapman, by

has Starting the will also call We that be referring on investor.natera.com. to available a to posted be investor.natera.com. Slide will X. A presentation at slide been replay of

coverage forward-looking that factors this the actual those important today's our partnerships, During for documents future with call, outlook conference statements XX-Q risks the make operating reflect or our X-K future as regarding studies, market suggested to with the clinical the you judgment documents or various cause and opportunities time expected and will from statements in such results and to contained based statements. may of press Those operational our to and for on anticipated forward-looking release. Form and and our size, and to course filed time differ results and that from results. we that refer other known outlook, on assumptions events factors such file that us we financial SEC, differ our actual Please or currently recent materially. future reimbursement projections, current XX-K performance, identify related Form most could including financial our events materially the by and our We and product effects products, caution and strategies expectations including best dates, capabilities, release

information. XXXX. this call statements. the presented as or is forward-looking update during of call accurate contain made Natera the the being reviewed statements call disclaims any after today, to August any or not during obligation or made revise X, If current Forward-looking today, may information replayed are

the performance updates guidance We not we'll quarter so in provide will further our today's on guidance do on any unless a forum. during provide or we public call, but

as quote otherwise such we a And will changes unless Steve? financial over or reference our the growth now year-on-year I'd each turn discuss We represents Steve. a to comparison. performance. number And of to like call numeric noted,

Steve Chapman

Thanks, Mike.

QX Slide get Let's on X. highlights into

flow on million, far later detail progress breakeven this the an NIPT Panorama XX% to in our of us to despite the revenue XX% milestone As market can And had confident from and the strong had market. cover this to but growth tests new last products, increase this we grew strong in Pro QIAGEN mid-XXXX. of position. path $XX.X by QX. a benefit We achieved we rate implies XX%. health XXX,XXX market organ a from $XX XX% year's single see NIPT further of year. reached of quarter our this again us Signatera over in our We gains press business. ASP over another year the year to guidance test now Mike growth competitor that onetime last in of revenue processing of commands release, an you so at fact roughly $XXX forma will This $XXX quarter, business We in Revenues annual an year. more midpoint. QX estimate enables strong even exiting makes our continued QX new call, in revenue incredible growth we oncology in million, million raise large million momentum onetime more approximately last the our XXXX range than expanding and a growing last a in QX from strengthened sequential this share NIPT, for saw cash

of worth timing July. a were, as until but As $X QX accessioned out volumes our that in they difference early were were negatively by the impacted of results not million good lab about reported

testing Network have we momentum to now, data, the the margin to we access, benefit largest are UnitedHealthcare's this revenue recognize participate seeing selected in think we'll and business we a commercial believe and experience. we quality rigorous the undergo but access, in of were and process the review United We cost, affordability, outcomes driving in getting and We commitment we've on to QX. in the results the rigorous that in to started. share the application UnitedHealthcare's I of recently service. patient been QX, show expenses improved Laboratory right States. rest understate for the that these Preferred that printed So are chance think after just review and actually We took highlights with Therefore, we insurer the completion pleased patient announced

is been our In on moments. space. biopsy-matched prospective Our transplant thrilled We of donor-derived percent were in for products Signatera see the and to DNA both largest Trifecta accomplishment. and provide a in health journal contributor a significant in growth the has result. publication each a cell-free Prospera which significant expectations. quarter. our with quantity, organ ever to and publication space spend volume revenue We which more exceed oncology, this for to in study published is the testing were few progress fully is that both multisite data I'll of the the leading study we the Trifecta time continues a think benefits Transplantation, This the highlighted in the

indications. and tests to with We number IO strong, Signatera commercial in very continue our each a reach by of remaining momentum quarter sequential monitoring record performed led colorectal

secured foundational coverage now MRD fourth is the the Medicare far under in cancer reimbursement among patients data in have published Signatera addition, bladder for reimbursement compelling. tumors This And significant. is cancer. need December and recently clinical in of think is XXXX. invasive muscle muscle first solid time the expansion bladder we the LCD In we in Medicare for secured thus presented peer-reviewed We for invasive testing bladder cancer have we Signatera the

data breadth highlights our and of the in I generation depth the think space. types tumor biopsy competitive across that liquid our over others advantage demonstrates and

June ASCO XX DNA and presenting in the including data continue presentations. tumor excellent oral with We poster one seven drumbeat at circulating of abstracts,

plan we ovarian, in studies and colorectal, time XXX or studies making to in some are next months, submit new breast, these the data largest tumor them addition, and for the gastroesophageal, few types. tumor pancreatic, more to many cancers. in date circulating Seven Signatera four than In bladder including melanoma have publish DNA significant studies of points, of

and of while cancer. with oncologists community think new different up of opens can indications we treat the many burnishing types our the I also reimbursement credibility breadth data pursue quality where that

all Dr. go on in the best Oncology Medical and Solomon call. how Chair of can of Research Minetta practicing previously wealth oncologists more to as a of Professor has to this to expertise Natera team. for in detail Oncology. Signatera of Dr. addition already thrilled to later were Department Liu We Officer served Liu Chief into Liu as Dr. our also of the in will fantastic be proven brings and at Oncology Mayo apply Clinic. a welcome

Finally, in cash director stock Matt top additional and the lead QX who in of we this on compensation. Rabinowitz, of forgo This making business investment Natera. electing management independent Chairman, favor our from Executive of the our heels received is equity to announced investment an salaries confidence an year another in vote in

think track. we on Natera's are about very future, the right I the all QX results demonstrate are and We excited

Okay.

Let's the last quarter, record get We the XXX,XXX QX slide. processed into next processed units business year. the of than more some of trends we on in a in X/X just

a on the volume progression you see surpassed can year full we that recently chart, tests the for from million As was XXXX. just in it X

be the patients that momentum for fewer accounts in have the which women's a to health function typical business seeing a XXX,XXX we of at historically the business. demonstrates seen in So in overcame second existing quarter QX. We test seasonality our the during the prenatal level quarter, single is strong

time only recent is fact, that in QX grown history In we've this sequentially versus in second QX. the

further women's data was a SMART to advantage market share spring, New account field. an Since the competitive very be the we to strong, are significant see health. and starts consolidate were in that the finding opportunity in published trial in we

and the We in are visibility, guidance solid this year. our very start I in the to of a so QX, far half performance think demonstrates second off raised strong

next the growth That the NIPT for stronger growth ASPs the in was and than Signatera. XX%. the sequential driven ASPs in growth you slide, at unit even revenue quarter step-up strong in can continued On another see was clinical our by

impactful how clinical As clinical to the in stepped were roughly Signatera model. in last described year Signatera volumes progression the quarter and overall last ASPs the is ASP We XXXs up QX. grow, particularly $XXX to

come being is improvement now primarily seeing year. there's by which first the the volume second room the of half of this This of of our from in monitoring the are the ADLT for increasing Signatera at is time, think $X,XXX. indication, recurrence we Medicare and tests more Medicare-reimbursed an to ASPs XXXs mix fraction our the reimbursed rate in and improving for We by starting driven

but again, of ASP is trends. guidance these So volumes for upward also part only the re-rating not positive year the

detail our selection to On the next on effective Preferred Network Lab a is July slide bit more UnitedHealthcare's X.

experience improved long data improve the that patient record and We have to delivering track of shows patient innovation outcomes. a

penetration, processes be very this recommendation And our So of health, XXXX. roughly handful includes further internal to our and less market with rigorous, products. NIPT administrative review expect is change selective, labs penetrated. this costs. ACOG's market pleased agreement software to in average This only labs the XX% driven benefit from In NIPT network. of we are quality that effort. in be United United a positive on means risk And women's claims, this undergo for to detailed partner we August a estimate a U.S. by includes of month-long continue health overall, systems. We we audit women's from to must

So help large enabling opportunity us a growth, and there's to more physicians. for still patients

now share. combined NIPT Our our with where volume continue overall features user on XX% We from strong we roughly focus have differentiate to has clinical and of wins data, unique competitive estimate increased we market the experience. with also ourselves

in well clinical the landmark think Gray which Journal, we're our utility XXq competitors detect difficult investing to the SMART appear One going load NIPT even to product and disease important validated the in the of forward. do and disease XXq going we in historically for in positively of SMART forward Test business. XXq breadth our lead of syndrome be make our remarkable Based trial well performance, more publishing be excellent of been deletion not of is have differentiate are deletions load. the continue specificity The while to is this near clinical of to and I or now assess that study, clinical XXq performance many test test positioned their still data strong study The high Natera's the data positioned of in are because and meaningful XX% investment to may that publication testing. of given future. ability roughly sensitivity, was could PPV we're XXq generation and clinical the the data adding up guidelines coverage our given quality optimistic physicians. further society features, SMART example on data clinical more included generation in and smaller

which As of laboratory of Natera more decision XXq becomes the choosing benefit see use, important increasing. the to we of as part NIPT

Okay.

the organ study published donor-derived molecular novel a prospective Using an with date. The more excelled active journal is biopsy-matched time and of in Trifecta largest incorporating study DNA multisite Trifecta amount assay DNA donor which and in bit leading estimated when nonactive to for space. health, is of patients assessing at let's rejection Transplantation, the study a conducted cell-free fully cell-free algorithm pathology. between Now of in on a spend rejection Prospera active the the recently AUC rejection, fraction two-threshold donor-derived both versus analysis X.XX discriminating transplant

demonstrated we one XX very DNA million to using the Renasight, levels test test for now in space. which Chronic care lung in results testing. clinical disease perform significant testing making now continuing We're disease. of that it utility. of affects gears a donor-derived kidney renal has of to of body of are today. chronic areas Americans, peer-reviewed health very proud germline broad the roughly with such well, the kidney, as these single largest test Shifting is cell-free transplant utilization for We patients generated evidence record kidney and Genetic seeing and our have Renasight conditions heart

patients targeted published XX in inform of recent Medicine Results Journal England kidney that treatment A that showed therapies, a kidney clinical disease a diagnose roughly kidney We in Total than conditions To genetic the recent -- benefit study multisite fact, completed should RenaCARE prospective could X,XXX identify evaluating medical genetic clinical executive reclassify large-scale of KDIGO our only and suggested or more testing the risk sites. confirm clinical routine etiology. XX% biopsy, group from at our to the enrollment kidney patients additional disease chronic across has provide In nephrologists a diagnosis, New in help knowledge, the late the is statement chronic study prospective assessment have utility now avoid chronic when think of in guideline U.S. referrals. over candidates performing July. relatives, patients. trials study is and this for genetic that study disease from multisite can was real-world patients. looking enrollment on

as the of University, field principal with prestigious and we several with years As the a who's in Chief Division the Gharavi, of started partnered this study Ali at ago Nephrology centers reminder, a Columbia Dr. most investigator. academic the

for We to We around XXXX. change time diagnosis. this patients germline expect study in be have kidney of think And should the submit the potential patients guidelines CKD with we disease. at of able the believe late could that publication receive testing to to chronic management it

opportunity the the living TAM to for this hereditary Given testing. with patients of that is diagnosed of number cancer similar and CKD,

the hand oncology. cover over to Solomon to like in our progress I'd to call Now recent

Solomon?

Solomon Moshkevich

cancer; follow-on IV umbrella then Thanks, was by in after Stage the Steve. The muscle under third, invasive cancer. for and colorectal cancer we MolDx's for oligometastatic big to our decision LCD, cancer; decision July. for fourth monitoring; colorectal Signatera its pan-cancer bladder then immunotherapy news now, is coverage in This Medicare announced bladder oncology Signatera early-stage a which extension cover

which and muscle most U.S. newly coverage cases and sixth MolDx, Signatera's bladder will the non-muscle coding recurrence the will generally from adjuvant per invasive cancer in the about effect on the the coverage expect similar cancer into CRC coverage and diagnosed in With with we monitoring pricing settings. include We is of year, XX. April XX,XXX invasive we've be invasive. common to split muscle Based neoadjuvant, as had believe communications than anticipated schedule, guidelines we itself on in per disease on imaging, median we in believe, at Based approximately we NCCN our based year. we With the tests implies full about right CRC. population for expect represents, side testing see believe XXX,XXX Medicare heavier patients this new a page Signatera per is current mix this of adoption. patient on the a at of year diagnosis XX,XXX XX, age

But size this the put is Once the surrounding a as for transurethral into This with tumor's muscle recommend respond. response past. recommend cancer most the to important more this in Signatera big than the the gene clinical guidelines starting reminder, perspective, has the a of stands the utility of clinical procedure guidelines itself on importantly, let's market, chemotherapy a the cystectomy. this as and treatments entire assessment neoadjuvant expression tissue. treatment area care. impact breast journey. switching As of take a a invasion prior look monitoring and patient for allows that presents very for TURBT the invasive, population, where conundrum Xx which neoadjuvant in testing diagnostics bladder This patients been patient been if to is it's Today, guidelines understand better first a tumor. fails for pathological at which resection patient in have recommend to muscle of will diagnosed To staging a and

that the patients are their neoadjuvant to reported approximately chemotherapy will of of approximately X/X not experience patients with surgery the setting, assess of that response. to X/X recurrence. biomarkers in XX% to alone, adjuvant surgery cured other of do on it's go lack However, to by a distant After patients while good respond up

whether have to patients challenge risk did is for recently treatment, was those use clinical either new adjuvant chemo prescribe as chemotherapy not of or the the approved immunotherapy at patients high year in neoadjuvant a systemic of option for who prescribing nivolumab Here, of recurrence.

strong the evidence scientific surveillance the in to intensive survival. that already recommend detection monitoring better asymptomatic setting, as of early recurrence is Finally, NCCN leads guidelines

been predictive a of as with clinical primarily that the in are that Signatera's reported validated still with help too imaging at challenges each publications it's and monitoring current of standard prognostic There assessment. conjunction Signatera tools, relapses inform late. least clinical has However, in major supported these detected to imaging, validity two these biomarker peer-reviewed are and XX% settings.

paper Christensen of diagnosis detect three about This testing monitoring. and XXX% the regular XXXX recurrence which points lead Clinical and Signatera assessment sensitivity could the of Journal time that neoadjuvant in the in XX Oncology, with First, serial with XX% total, average months. patients MRD surgery, XXX all time therapy, with from through followed testing, then way showed specificity an relapse diagnostic study

in Second, other MRD-negative of The together types, Signatera We're of Coming this get surgery to who were standard in in Phase evidence significant the who III is after shifting already Signatera that many about patients of strength other first an as possible. their data, the our reported MIBC platform. we our predictive the that is excellent the a Powles cancer immunotherapy. XX% that any immunotherapy, not patients with significantly Signatera paper now makes pan-cancer focus of from the of cancer as oncologists demonstration randomized commercialize to incorporating position journal what into while to so Nature, care. existing as into are breadth the of We're as see Signatera this bladder with identify did hands who infrastructure prognostic. enthusiastic commercialization the could XX% in XXXX benefit benefited MRD-positive from patients well IMvigorXXX from is was trial, the and because

same and additional extending for operating every been the offer We experience further and next in and that already the the Signatera that our the We sets the is with established support the what customer our community anticipate first-mover field. new advantage been and oncologists, and since in published bladder asked have just breast, will coming announcement, map. cancer more. of or be scaling already we in product IO exciting lab on colorectal, loyalty, gastroesophageal, monitoring. additional pancreatic, create months important With user CRC existing simply melanoma commercial indication, marketing same road and ovarian, continue the team the existing After customer academic have MRD strong areas drive focused in we sales it's submitted use and tools clinical and we leverage covered data to this adoption several

have than them time tumor four XXX of seven in and Steve data, of papers Natera evidence. substantial these where more As published not them points types peer-reviewed our mentioned, making body additions to of are yet has

in expand expect second We to in insurance to patients. to this the half more that or XXXX. our year support And those goals publish of papers will early coverage

Japan years. We of In prospective particular, practice-changing want expected the over execute months versus also grow deliver GI. we our cancer. on one, clinical to the pipeline CIRCULATE which ASCO colorectal clinical XX follow-up have earlier of the presented now publication, in which we continue submitted continued includes I Number highlight our here coming months to trials, and at momentum data definitive XX are for to from evidence

We expect pleased part two think we're trial. soon. these two, Number to our enrolled of to coverage patient strategy have the an the NCI-sponsored achieve are and new published important our first utilization trials goals. into CIRCULATE-US increase be that paper to We

same Medicine, less colon update may showed Journal Australia in And late August, MRD which approximately private a resulted published stage the signs of the early guidelines CRC, NCCN treatment chemotherapy. II we're into tumor-informed their data is the the in which enthusiasm New MRD-guided outcomes Committee Guidelines incorporate Xx We further meets seeing payers. from that in we're slide, England next that survival the with of On guidelines. hopeful of cancer believe supported for from recent by

like to to hand Mike financials. over I'd to cover Now the it Mike?

Michael Brophy

Great. Thanks, Solomon.

on just slide The trends is revenues. Steve for volumes QX. financial the results first standard the covered and key

the the out the need have quarter, accrue mentioned, difference higher reporting is $X revenue. revenues the Steve if roughly lab between and not to As event units, timing for would million accessioning the in in which been we

record a a the to offices XXX in usual were in really a saw touched new customer margins In track gross down as to expect on be good XX,XXX held sequential the per year on We've sustained an in XXXs, Signatera we of $XXX ASPs. dilutive. month I exceed progress women's adding quarter base of on ASPs just artificially starts critical, to also QX. we health, the are XXX above now estimated QX moved last ordering to COGS and initial But than still for have of approximately from a targets. is in clinical QX accounts. continue that in in new roughly higher the gross $XXX quarter, the With little absolutely another gross that sales clinical QX physician Steve strong We margin result. our fact the to now margins clinical So XXXs volumes account that that low now given progression ASPs. the

We favor, decision about as described. and are armed in coverage get another are we Solomon commercial some starting our optimistic with to traction coverage

We ASP more year. cash in up ASPs QX of this for strong. up the compared remains to used sets room NIPT progress that women's year. ASPs more think there's think health in balance second we quarter, on The the of less QX this in half substantially half again and sheet progress the on second were the for I sequentially year. Signatera as

to drop expenses meaningfully quarterly grow cash continue as expect in and the remain second usage to stable. revenues half We

from of getting has repeat the into and ramping laying of receivables XXXX we Last next a that on that is addition in to a but or breakeven first on we our a fundamental reimbursement Spending cash we've think lead large as reinforced take years units flow went ourselves not even in going Today, changes draconian flow accrued we on Signatera. us catch and growing here, all business for leader We've stop In in markets. to cuts to the operations in significant our we clinical that a that up the about already could half with model. are We data established we is to the model close the market on got bit $XX to caused in quarter, up detail trials of if software longer-range particular time and multiple million won't The generating more estimate some as onto our cash continue by lower-cost volumes driven now. catch-up benefits Austin half are front-loaded come second all update commercial out Because lab. year. sequencers can that capital to our that infrastructure, the cost-efficient I and we by reaping to of slide. us that products quickly. that, we progression. a on claims this the the that investment grow hold scaling in the for we revenues established of returns these expect invested portion of Medicare breakeven generate and our to spring porting have significant progression, expected require

now we a describing represent or of flow each as be spent we've term, great right-hand on results far so for I more visibility of function flow-breakeven get base potentially achieved it's think we clear case lot the change Company, this catalysts think mid-XXXX. you as to Based breakeven. another of just one can we the we've We these near have that of cash see time to year, likely think a that would be why early by the On achieve achieved we page. step on meaningful think these side catalysts and that quarter cash seen as one can we position of of year. them. could are a case, top number drives in base this the the in So can a to of Any

Okay. Good.

slide the on rest the of updated revenue re-rate year. to the guidance touched the range of the get and next for the for Steve guidance year. Let's the

the in this a you Company. As guide and March from up guide the our across volumes step in strength both major are slide, ASPs new the seeing reflects represents initial we and on see can

earlier, the margins improving, recognition time scale still while expenses and stable which products where economics, burn, Signatera to they we caution that the the are the cash working unit now, women's for holding in and to are phase some prior We are continued capital a health dilutive described on margins elements being. gross represents the a in clinical for guide expected

Finally, we expect report near the goals, we term, to including sustainability about. ESG excited in publish which are XXXX our inaugural our very

pleased very call you share results we're over Operator? to the able me for to these And hand the with today. let now be to operator So questions.

Operator

[Operator Our Stanley. Tejas with Instructions] comes question Savant first from Morgan

Tejas Savant

that alluded a on you of first on Congrats restructurings? for playing opportunities My that? And bit of strong about through should little question as increase? decision, internal [indiscernible] into competitors can health. sooner about a here, share microdels talk your of Steve, we how the guidelines sort the is into is think the then And we much implications? given a 'XX that think reproductive situation? of going here. gain you that to outlook particularly some about off of possibility here Is Roe the versus sort Wade is revenue getting a there How

Steve Chapman

question. the for Thanks Yes.

on think things. down think it the of comes lot a I to So gains, share we

more significantly company. supporting data and NIPT where about other nine that of validation clinical simply performance I offer we of Panorama the in do. generated think any points than there's addition, clinical things we differentiation can't the that largely others And

driving So are on largely those with share combined it's user things, gains. I experience think that our our two focus

benefiting the largely, in But back course, we're differentiation. think and I that Of I clinical does as benefit both in think their from others investments infrastructure data their the R&D, commercial us. also and pull

deletion the clinical from strong being utility updated the talked On bit very side, the more a we've of resulting this of done in that's study, near XXq space trial in society testing future. little this guidelines which There's earnings possibility call about SMART largest a doing ever prenatal January been that published year. and was the in in was for outlined that's XXq the the the prospective in

than just we likelihood, we part of And society near that are XXq have that guidelines going think screening. there's we include the those a in I'd feel as the and past change. prenatal to that guidelines a So now more say routine future do possibility confident that change in

Operator

Our with Dave question comes Sachs. Delahunt next Goldman from

David Delahunt

congrats quarter. the on Guys, strong

up. You and color XXXs into NIPT little see getting ASPs into now? as Signatera going that what's bit us more the going up on Could double-click both the give on you a the up going as well ASPs

Steve Chapman

Yes, take that? to Mike, want do you

Michael Brophy

are right? Thanks largely I question, high Yes. Yes. we ASP, Signatera mean, the Good surprise, on what increasing. for had mix to Good. are is year, think look, for hopes the you. it's beginning expected the Dave. further increasing, with and talk of And which our Yes. no Medicare I is the we're launch. just chemotypes reimbursed into at of that getting the number

just And have to patients into so that you're and more could falling more further these launch. are the into reimbursed actually categories get that going

natural a really obviously, on it's those are ramping. on, because organic progression as focused lines really very Signatera So we're pretty

us patients test again, that's So a -- of kind -- that significant stopping chunk of for especially state coming reimbursed just new getting whether covered improving, administrative other There's policies the the of reimbursement NIPT. or priced and covered it's pretty barriers for or though NIPT on from gradually to side, haven't it's been online. kind getting those a coverage plans it's It's historically predictable. -- some there's barriers

main those kind So drivers. are of the

Operator

comes Catherine question from with next Baird. Schulte Our

Catherine Schulte

for and are you've to given bladder, -- being would rate for patient related for you What a population invasive seen limiter to SKU adoption that older guidance And I anticipate in [longer] terms And of bladder in is for that adoption? think stronger the muscle expecting CRC. you something contribution any there? that,

Steve Chapman

Yes.

Solomon, want to do you that? take

Solomon Moshkevich

Medicare that down cancer we I the XX, mix adoption actually there, mix, expect curve. adoption to oncologists is have thus we've a to don't encountered for our positive and GU the heavier is anymore. hear among of we yes, I patients. needs -- receptiveness in didn't Certainly, very significant given today diagnosis But which Cathy. her The enthusiasm part. can't we Sure. managing your I'll answer hear necessarily unmet that Happy bladder -- question, Was quite ASPs. with they anything that bigger first And second the going in Medicare what far median be commercial weigh the in do part expect cancer? age it of quite the for guess expect a we bladder the to. at

Steve Chapman

Yes.

a positive I'll muscle bladder been, adoption, some lot Let decision, me of And publications the commercial in the of buzz. these out. I think, coming nice on post just post there's already in utilization say increase a we're add coverage seeing invasive

So about good think we're it. I feeling

competitors think had that about really when announced maybe overall at a is -- the X/X other But unique colorectal, the good to particular -- from the look invasive you of I TAM, in limited a previously sector this it's opportunity we here think, of a I what of maybe really between long X/X segment very which that's that significant X/X outsized I which, for the this is muscle that's think us think I thing an potentially have of so I And is benchmark. very kind and there's share think in bladder. on benefit. data, great term, market, for of,

Operator

Cowen. next question Masucci Max Our comes from with

Max Masucci

highlights cash it and revenue $X.X to deck, XX flow XX% at In Slide Just you the the gross get breakeven. the one, margins if slide look in quarterly run suggested target QX billion rate the for deck, $X.X there to billion mid-XXXX that it prior breakeven. first you would

So for imply seems look Slide to at it be billion to on XX, revenues just mid-XXXX $X.X if that could a reasonable in that target XXXX. billion $X.X we target

billion. looking of north $X.X at Just just consensus, it's

So we broad our and segments? how can of modeling that, about think of growth the that in confidence numbers about it's just question those we for two have should bridging a more the

Michael Brophy

Good question. with the to for chat you. thanks Matt, Yes.

all look, that right. stuff roughly so yes, So is

getting think that is of cash distinction that a like number. a full flow what crossing to for I in year threshold revenue from over kind breakeven we're calling as quarter distinct where us the we're

out commentary gives commercial nuance getting just little in of precision has because implies prepared think disconnect provide us progress points versus we a question a the bit just the year do think in previously of our a model. It's of put confidence that's to I remarks. there. I And that were that level business don't be the with quarter is. continued headlines does give a is of -- provided our get -- we little of to often to the the on -- kind timing as that more roughly that across there's numbers a what bit the the all So which terms there seems gone comfort the continued quarter. has increased around of traction, that all necessarily more the that on

of it's just like distinction a quarter. think I getting a to specific

Operator

you. Thank

Our comes Puneet from next question Souda with Leerink.

Puneet Souda

anything studies So have things you here submitted there just that NCCN. terms or second that in any And you in or you Can updates expect first one is of the around really half? any provide Signatera?

Steve Chapman

take want maybe Yes, may something that. Solomon, additional. And to I'll add you

So feeling positive. I think we're

I control from from we're generated with that also positive both DYNAMIC and some there's trial from previously. presented good guidelines, still don't Although think discussion happening KOLs that data the the the that was we've we data that the about, feeling

So frame. study. a data. like this sometime been makes if months. publication and later just we based good to even positions there fall. The of And that before the in be that summer in we'll in it study December has submission contribution published opportunity of for be would that that changed making that one be. there could summer or was on And haven't And the extended stronger is to year, to now is change paper key they existing or the guidelines And that the a I early XX in biggest now it I follow-up potentially to think well really drive the I think is the the guidelines updates summer than think the the this that that time for CIRCULATE-Japan will be as paper possibility said is the it

add to free that you'd feel to like. if Solomon,

Solomon Moshkevich

things. add just I'll Yes. two

in utility how GI Steve GALAXY of data as oncologists it's because change other to the is welcome we has here. so gating a gating First, has we've think we accelerate we again, about the just do that addition everything supporting though the presented to the evidence leading in really for can think reason of body published overall there August been And now guidelines, not much the done a mentioned, is impacted publication data was field the think in and ctDNA. that that. DYNAMIC trial And Australia from don't

Operator

Our comes next question with JPMorgan. Qin Julia from

Julia Qin

now? you me hear Can

Steve Chapman

Yes.

Julia Qin

kind Could and light what patients expecting between of an us years? the update you on first-year give in you few the of mix for expanded right. And next are coverage, All trajectory Signatera ASP recurring current patients? over the

Steve Chapman

Yes.

you on the And Let then Mike, the comment ASP first me can about maybe, trajectory. talk one.

are number versus number living of diagnosed the year, there's patients patients cancer obviously, So that patients you are at more are every cancer. with the look long way term, when with living that of that

the And is monitoring and point. their we're the there's coming patients are the And of recurrence going time these that think the there's demand in is the a test -- new so clinical seeing over for be long with patients term, using as time. high What time more number and of and patients seeing test first now at though like the that we're just a we that for indication. meet a coming to commercial our in, are the uptake for shift team we the significant very still very to first large these lot doctors, first

to further what the with the want we fit shift volume have over patients Mike, segment, on time, in. this population two recurrence significant coming is and to tracking number towards one a expect. of over sort do past just comment you dynamic obviously, because seeing, years, going would it's new do this in ASP? the not of which longitudinal monitoring the are we Now But

Michael Brophy

Yes. I actually influence I think a quite those ASP mean lot. drivers

of which would particularly we the course, All a in in in summary, would populations, areas for it's ASP these the things we in which, everyone. of utility in compelling. to think data in Signatera, some to we more really that and think, expanding think over make I demonstrated, the these is significantly next think covered that make of ASPs I happen for clinical few feel and published, where drive that prospective we the reimbursed works is have by immature those data patients. current populations really business coverage. really broader can the having Medicare, are we've like we And a would a expect guidelines, that function Signatera, this volumes The we quite that years guidelines care then these that huge commercial colorectal direct drive of cancer, something obviously, higher then difference

Operator

Mark Massaro from BTIG. with comes question next Our

Vidyun Bais

This is Vivian on for Mark.

it you your high a enrollment? share us potential learnings program? FDA share Could catalysts to size development key So detection clinical of milestones some from trial or relates may you gleaned could patient for with you what be with or have early discussions level at the will as of any the also

Steve Chapman

for Thanks Yes. the question.

our exomes, is on that data We're generate licensed us, both a we've So proprietary from used is as a from also what University. we're cancer before, targeted we're but detection, ourselves mutations. and that panel that which for of with early methylation DNA partnership that available early-stage we that Aarhus and signatures, with we've we've developed combining we public databases said doing have leveraging the priority on to tumor

'XX So some prompted and the at work. of generate But kind getting we're initial obviously, the us of performance point would The some significant in we and run test. we I more kind say, 'XX looks data that's taking feedback the biggest with half first roughly. at the to plan to DNA combined readout, are us, looking FDA. from the milestones with methylation good, on performance having of that The a and plan of later of in the in continue front

fact, will of months. done pre-submission forward be our significant that the the kind to and we mentioned our participating And then post their if we'll be couple adapting strategy up need understanding I that, to proof-of-concept then of year so. In as data, more And next discuss trial which trial coming we've next already we're in in the feedback, meeting, in. generating be clinical that looking are or

Operator

Nowak with Alex from Craig-Hallum. comes question next Our

Connor Stevenson

Connor for environment competitive guess, first, around color Alex. on is on some the MRD This hoping in test. I I was

all Just be you you got helpful. of sure recurrence But I some and used decision-making I'm expect mean, others adjuvant do test would there be know, thoughts Health covered. used solely for their some monitoring? these As for tests to Guardant

Steve Chapman

Yes. Thanks.

that think we I think exceptionally standpoint, So well. doing competitor we're a from

based the driven super at by quality our minds, share that peer-reviewed of time is adjuvant the position. you use the this longitudinal market one think long and decision-making Most time the same I for muscle point, recurrence and they invasive think in longitudinal breadth coverage test the to we've have in data the addition the monitoring. have coverage and point MRD breadth just that physicians of Again, bladder, we've now in our recurrence neoadjuvant a that's and we that think important the look from depth We evidence adjuvant for Similar, had, data showing our peer-reviewed adjuvant narrow on that both and think the want think we're data high-quality very term. we recurrence will coverage look received that or MRD for And local monitoring when for monitoring. we've majority seeing you MRD Medicare we as point received approach really vast the generated tumor-informed we've We I that is the and physicians' of of for just winner. when we're indication. data. at outside is of to good decision And will decision-making and monitoring. at for

Operator

comes question Carrico with Stephens. next from Our Mason

Mason Carrico

untouched then kidney centers? Maybe update the guys growth there how there, components How share in well? about to is you Sorry much about us hit Prospera of kidney minute. are thinking on many orders coming are for And taking from? that. penetration a And from receiving Could the greenfield centers you on opportunity? as you

Steve Chapman

for Thanks Yes. the question.

multisite increasing. continued ever from that's of giving very to study, the are every well. and We're record was study get growth Physicians the volume Trifecta biopsy-matched hitting fully a seeing I the which standpoint, So post performed. standpoint been quarter. prospective we're volume feedback. largest think positive We've publication feedback numbers excellent a doing We're

vast with transplant of majority the a I'd So well, we think point. We're with -- the say, at we're this in working centers position. good

patients the overall still I we the think penetrated, lies. a donor-derived XX% roughly that's opportunity penetration DNA. think something with said majority of range about standpoint, today that increase. XX% means market of range or biggest is previously, continues we've cell-free the monitored we aren't From but probably and that the And in where vast in think to that being

is that haven't data it donor-derived opportunity are their yet patients. are frequently physicians a and to way. selective more as more use there centers there's Now centers There as DNA. in generated some are obviously, using donor-derived -- adopted help start that in testing large practice, cell-free things some to But a

Operator

you. concludes the session. Thank for concludes you Thank Q&A This participating. call. This conference today's

You now may disconnect.

Natera (NTRA) 6 Aug 222022 Q2 Earnings call transcript