NTRA - Earnings call transcript Q1 2024

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Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Greg, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Natera, Inc. Q1 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Brophy, Chief Financial Officer. ahead. go please Mike,

Mike Brophy

good discuss you first the XXXX. and conference quarter joining call to results afternoon. operator, for Thank our of Thanks, of our

is the Fesko, Aleshin, the be General our broadcast of webcast. Oncology also Steve being President On on Medical call Clinical Chief Manager joined available Officer; Business Chief Today's Solomon is John of Alex will and conference and via for Moshkevich, Chapman, and Diagnostics; and I'm line, President and call CEO; live Q&A. by Officer,

will slide available. Starting We it's replay presentation has been IR also be call be our as the soon on A investor.natera.com. Slide that site referring to as to posted X. a posted of will to

forward-looking such future future During our anticipated our and as statements regarding outlook the this will course of and performance, events and conference operational financial call, projections. make we

in and our partnerships, capabilities, Those that that the opportunities including current the that from factors actual Form talk for could product differ release. SEC, suggested market XX-Q results. risks materially. Please Form X-K and cause outlook, on known we contained or best press the related results time important differ We filed today's dates, such reflect judgment documents refer documents the results currently time our financial and recent materially and from or events to and forward-looking effects may our by assumptions and XX-K with to with those to to expectations strategies file on results actual including and identify based most statements statements. Our to studies various other or operating expected our coverage reimbursement for factors size, that us and and you expected products, release future clinical

are current accurate call replayed presented disclaims as not information. call today, any contain obligation XXXX. this X, If reviewed or made today, Forward-looking or revise or may information during statements. call being the the forward-looking is to of update May during after statements made the Natera any

but guidance on provide do guidance quarter on provide public further unless not will our today's any a will in updates We forum. so call, performance during we the or

We number reference or our growth now a And I'd year-on-year unless discuss each performance. financial as a noted, changes we will otherwise of to represents the over turn like numeric Steve? Steve. quote such comparison. And call to

Steve Chapman

Mike. Thanks, Great.

up pleased major XX% year. cash a the met the XXXX. record up the we company. We gross slide. into in ahead the of flow had drove get reaching across units XXXX schedule. Let's year. QX quarter record ASPs. the in less XX,XXX Volumes Revenues organ next strong, very margin XX% XXXX, of margin is of an in company seen versus than women's health. the representing XXX,XXX we of sequential reduction and oncology, which highlights milestone compared up health was growth year, QX the they and had versus In QX for to particularly cost volume last and XX% across Health Improving the XX,XXX record we've driven were a XX% breakeven of on units units were volumes QX, quarter XX% of more now. We cycle record that a of than of sequentially to execution on are oncology, since board, when versus Women's compared size performed and last growth also life volumes quarter, growth significantly sequential excellent continued last gross were the of and half in share I'm by sequentially fastest XXXX, growth to the over QX of rate versus improving QX up and ASPs QX

the of great a this every aspect of rest the puts of us in the All momentum to guide position for raise year. significantly

now range is which February. of provided $XXX are above million of in $X.XX the the expecting midpoint billion, We we $X.XX to billion revenues

are to investments raising reducing commercial we We margins And also a as cash to XX% XX%. the our of gross R&D, increase in guide we even operations importantly, and from XX% are year. for new range XX% significantly burn to

we serving of for we type MRD-negative last particularly Signatera not to you recently, patients pleased driving announcements, treatments launch of after trial strong kidney have analysis saw Signatera favor the remain year included III oncology, which trial in our a be this million which also a health and represents Oregon is available the The tunnel, in cancer guidelines release IMvigorXXX prospective excellent it on or out see donor-derived think were of disease. to codigo given vast previous in with RhIG offer United published outcomes. we explicitly support our burn DNA which top as bladder treatment study this year, are now to largest this Phase updated in very in the serial the may cell-free majority the the This range More also in modern fetal This right to date results discussed in was Our year. In that about the of had momentum $XX unmet transplant and study great do excited RhD a labs negative surveillance. cash a we study. that the we the being is in thrilled $XX million, we In in flow with plus quarter. meaningful need had forward critical many full encouraged forego projecting of $XX be the proactive by we organ clinical are the Health, RenaCARE minus including space. to perspective released evaluated excellent in be able prospective testing the of we're of that the randomized and We to see, these to the publication patients last suggests are testing million. We've now testing patients genetic kidney This product chronic full test. particularly shortage read of of of States. NIPT breakeven slate the

also had cover to agenda the excited will We a for into We've I'm trends today. additional next the data slide. full the got on readouts get call, business we and several

in with in the results. health. a shows and first volume QX QX, and very sequential and our slide strong the we lift nice year from saw Invitae We transition The picked a growth has between had women's the a February, we're pleased success, year. both last QX this for and accounts been up January and We

the also growing success We organically business. had

organic growth within health our wins QX and the existing fact, accounts. new account In majority women's in our from of growth came

which the XX,XXX XX,XXX [indiscernible] Our next Signatera advantages guidelines well, in oncology with delivered quarter. most typically units got overall, our the oncology is discuss of in was of saw the traction the grew clinical business. strong a in units X,XXX grow QX and with promising came updated on coming Signatera to that continue in between on ever nicely core given quarter. the shine volumes very and field, late out the launch Renasight RhD we've product, core best units on slide. the our units sequential quarter-over-quarter. call. Organ A of Health the growth for We also on publication later oncology the bright growth. Double-clicking see proactive And Prospera back our quarter we'll We a which these spot unit and oncology, we as of lot this grew from

next the of with GI seeing with monitoring. are new the have, along the the to we size some that revenues quarter, generated physicians sequential and growth growth similar years. ASCO had State patient despite story. came and in course, that significant CRC customers We the QX helped to said, new more we in addition X excited in slide growth to the in last significant This XX% quality, past. The we've as sequential the QX over XX% last out compared volume metrics fastest galaxy of off of step-up which to see over in in last doubled trial the We're recurrence revenue gains time, with revenue the fluctuations of But We and shows year data starts has that in in breadth of the data, resonating of our physicians. start seen the and QX. we've represents than is year. base strong another fact the about revenue clinical seen

up significantly above and Women's In Signatera to major ASPs were were addition the organ volume we to outperforming continue see our ASPs across of QX. ASPs health health in $X,XXX and growth, all products.

We a we think progress ASP we the rest sight of make reimbursement, through on and to continue line to continue of the year. Signature expansion have

$XX about true-ups improvement ASP revenue rapid in driven the this addition, In million quarter. in has

estimates. the business for exceeding a think that very collections prior it I sign are our cash healthy that's as indicates

stripping every Our don't out the growth and quarter. when trends remained those true-ups strong even happen

our see ASP margin a roughly number. ahead of the resources have guide. and true-ups, had impact the internal On the XX% our COGS Austin ton ASPs, launched, higher gross repeatable San we last on But execution about can a is moving prenatal next of really slide, drives the We've would if the on excited improving Colos Obviously, estimate revenue and but our of well even sequencers both to over strip I'm XX%, we equally huge increase several business. expectations the margin management for year. put generated the out you We underlying and COGS gross focus projects you recently. which and including in the throughput been in is improving

are rest Signatera likely we year. benefits below but capabilities. $XXX based the in In still increased are to of there our stay expect we COGS, some for we expanding scaling will the which on the exome of short-term goal that addition, cost our drive already

spend reductions We dividends. higher in are volume now percentage of poured cost we tiers as hit contracts. paying getting rebates a large costs our historically lead now are into We've really from R&D our also those meaningful and vendors

a this R&D slide, met clinical ramped to to will while on So results and X QX goal to of done maintaining have think we've maintaining to lowered significantly all reduction margins, the the about leadership set next results while generation. breakeven consistent us and our formula continue commercial over to burn flow strategy ahead we're in in trends allow on increased the data earnings that very time. investment We target about activities. of which and leading get this our here. ago, come COGS, delivering increased gross levels We've ambitious call We've schedule. We financial these excellent position shows and the revenues, years been cash cash ASPs and pleased volumes

large this underpenetrated NCCN still would Those very execute upcoming continuing represent the such further XXq as addition, guidelines. In along goal without or to markets. breakeven help catalysts cash core we've upside potential of with any achieved strategy flow the guidelines in

year, negative fundamentally, Going the think through position serve said, cash between that quarters But and payments, around variables, timing like grow depending we're flow timing insurance to CapEx on more let the burning rest the continually other in positive turn of over factors. drive capital and we with may we and to of to lab of and the working bounce a Solomon. innovation me without it patients the cash. And business and the continue

Solomon?

Solomon Moshkevich

status papers the over some from Thanks, that XXX April, product road chart XX were history surpassed across than papers mark peer-reviewed of in we highlights areas with clinical and throughout women This medication to are launch highlights more supplies as Steve. have medication RhD more traditionally to fetal and papers strategy complications Natera. The OB/GYNs we and and major prenatal In key care XX of of weeks to a of MRD pursued map. maternal in warned the company. during than Steve about that pleased as currently meaningful now map On to fetal the all we our shortage oncology And the health, women's company The our that focus particularly from test the given facing launch more to that RhD trial use women's the that testing in to as was highly out been earlier even our breakthroughs which timely advancement the be including science, can negative potential this world, is FDA the look a in study latter further in Panorama, in continue We as The supply. generating published for and our suit, gestation XX are really patient Panorama respected that journals evidence such nature forward major just some health, growing came in the road nature support and most this limited conserve RhD designed year. proactive right as prevent These differentiates the the statement with include test the help XXX the We've essentially of early RH mission. In and as to medicine. the following paper Galaxy us in draw. a with brought in also organ pregnancy. to is than ACOG alongside supports was health. mentioned, care, new with NIPT as fetal blood to a trial Prospera, Smart market. of determine we one X the performed the Signatera of with April

We are proud time offer a prenatal the community. need this at critical to of test in

differentiator Beyond this for view the key we Natera fronts. on as shortage, several launch a

other U.S. vast labs do majority only of the First, market RhD with on not NIPT fetal assessment one the other in offer test the

via in serology, labs. outcomes sensitivity Panorama pregnancies. into believe confirmed by test new other resulting highly is with standard, This is outstanding, in validation allow studies large XX.X% validation us practices. our from more validated will expand than already XXx specificity. backed performance negative and more the RhD the differentiators, status patients physician to Natera's than that's these with roughly study Second, included was also RhD is coupled The built SNP-based into reach which confirmed gold that XXX XXX% a newborn technology We fetal

with Moving for quarter some health. disease. for We both the genetic announcements Prospera. key Renasight, Renosight to Starting and organ during our chronic test had kidney

levels donor-derived was up impact see first data approximately. testing. In to have cell-mediated show X as can prospective had major for prior the see disease and clinical were of months we patients to a as in Prospera prior society the This the rejection And update nephrology. outcomes. antibody-mediated Renasight indicator in first are We guideline performance guideline from has management medical kidney pretty leading significant cell-treDNA this updated KDIGO, a Prospera global evaluation clinical offers stating strong under tests again CKD an guideline surveillance readout to are donor choice the nephrologist clinical and transplant scenarios indications pleased in clinical the guideline of which transplant list, in largest of among ProActive CKD a a used, majority disease. their ongoing Prospera the itself time, X,XXX to the the establish ProActive was recent updated are and stands the the with Renasight impact to for The from makes of April, field line for practice of management based to KDIGO evidence, genetic be Prospera the with a we study; not established the elevated just recommending among cause adoption the with once T And this chronic on value which value X.XX kidney saw an positive the time genetic for is tests market. and in expect improving to CKD clear transplantation also renal in testing support, like trial, of management one, which to The the patients. The an includes noting number published as guideline X physicians XX that patients. rejection genetic momentum clinical rejections predictive the previous is range than behind area about including, as of a cfDNA results published in data CKD performance that of believe that's months of the not broad kidney tool study detect the In years. RenaCARE significantly two, tool of the as on is demonstrated the more particularly outstanding been short rejection. factors, this leading that in a section the it negative represents of guideline number of X in genetics, we earlier, of a vast These a cause. Further, genetic just in we growing as highlights three, studies. essential number list that first that milestone testing using the premier and data monitoring. XX% of now other genetic We updated of specific and in Prospera up should patients where from CKD informative. a for key use testing curve

on of oncology, going of update continue on value uterine over of the with where and clinical Finally, colorectal on generated to publications and Steve growth the across hand ALTAIR our types. I'm tumor to Signatera starting top trial in to record that volume on provide we in outlined. a breast an things the quarter, to cancers, as are We Alex? announcements that it during demonstrate Alex drumbeat trial bladder, had the progress steady track. color

Alexey Aleshin

Thank have months where we you, start Solomon. in I'll particular, cancer, in ALTAIR study, an the exciting colorectal store. few with

is CRC announced time. Also most if cancer, participation readouts our be we the this recently excited endpoints peer-reviewed publication. a year, including fall. conference cancer looking reminder, by study. ongoing -- secondary milestones we only see the III were CIRCULATE-France that the was Japan dedicated trial molecular Phase outlined patient major [Audio in pleased ALTAIR studying the MRD impactful for study approaching the been this on We of data slide in North primary guided into III selected on treatment of colorectal the in for risk here colorectal Phase based potential with the you stage with the colorectal and study adoption and randomized performance possibly each cancer. to submit trials France that on Gap] a does in is and one a higher may study. we year. It announce are analysis generation and And [Audio the for of care We're studying Signatera currently specifically forward the addresses with which with both in the in to in people benefit enrollment plan recurrence reimbursement and partners well-validated asset we chemotherapy as We've population. CIRCULATE-France European at study, completion early-stage March some a closely also which in in approach trial As to trial II working analyses a these in America results Japan, but plan our to ongoing receive study, characteristics readout. After ctDNA positive, population our colorectal in share complements the statistical We XX,XXX way over in Signatera cancer in not in many colorectal is these in testing and the in CIRCULATE-Japan end you CIRCULATE-Japan data of personalized low-risk cancer, a key do as the Gap] our standard who of to by are the the France pave part believe has to believe of patients this of of very for collaborators that improve to Union. the outcomes and treatment randomized, diagnosed for placebo-controlled quite

also ongoing a from cancer bladder study Genentech. This the Signatera is strategy. the presented, an for which ongoing an that milestone being collaboration Phase with Phase conducted in time III is trial, evidence generation IMvigorXXX global from We our III was released in compelling data first had data prospective trial randomized international

which outcomes were improvement months. Signatera. The of XXX Conference at increasing been high-risk negative survival be underscores Furthermore, at by to and at was were XXX% set patients of the have studies, at without the months patients at and bladder under during patients prospective XX% standard XX the for being included of which and importance might cancer, evidence will XX expectations us further XX% XX% MODERN that negative remain significant XX baseline adjuvant invasive surgery the in muscle rates first evaluated Signatera-negative able discussed generating surgical versus medical formally remain European analysis analysis the with prior months current of showed surveillance, call. in in [ last This biobank disease-free in from randomized a and is earnings the Association post with XX rates care we This interest the therapy of generation. These months. after and tested patients that overall NCI-sponsored cancer. who The Urology survival which results detail presented bladder concept high-risk the treatment give be spared is study. in ] Signatera-negative serially was with March community confidence

Genentech's bladder to the only diagnostic While FDA expected as this label basis placebo investigating for analysis of MRD-positive out atezolizumab, of expected which submission cancer. result of in trial, the patients, early first covered MRD-negative versus first the to next is our is arm trial the serve That year. companion read Signatera drug efficacy for is

mean improve each We the clinical tailor on practice cancer potential data this XXX,XXX than what Signatera to well the diagnosed role are could optimistic invasive year. outcomes for muscle as of treatment for bladder globally the cases as in more and

next slide. the to Moving

in we resected Here, new can plasma mortality women are year, samples looked Signatera you XXX is This Gynecologic disease. a generated also see the diagnoses this of In is had least the in real-world common of which in cancers meaningful of drawn at we after of subtypes and validating partially U.S. study as in and due data with timely this Earlier cancer. women. Oncology, publication increase especially utilization, rising new are XXX important Signatera cancer. at diagnosis affecting use uterine to uterine more we've rights from the aggressive surgery an increasing, this in

curve patients free. who demonstrate of the Signatera negative surgery Kaplan-Meier left, recurrence. All is you were postsurgical the on survival. predictor remain see Signatera-positive recurrence the had XX-fold As Signatera a from can worse patients how a recurrence-free powerful results after All

bolster over test recurrence the negative The across follow-up. cohort monitoring before than leader cohort from of years was to our XXX Ebola who a being health. XX death clinical of were recurrences. evidence diagnostic up Signatera median cancer XXXX with setting. Samples patients expansion observed had new believe The ctDNA of expanded cohort were risk of which recent starting field up times cancer. on the who for in the is in of months patients cancer findings Moving the our had to published Signatera X The MolDX expanded time cancer breast the to study our patients a breast monitoring original build with time plasma women's publication announced to face of It XX We as of had in neoadjuvant fold on as those long-term clinical publications approval study. being an of up X late These often ovarian years months. years, compared subtypes points longer all detection includes X,XXX X Signatera. therapy. Patients before breast a of in increased cancer coverage we the collected persistently Altogether, the monitoring. commitment Signatera-positive after every follow-up to completion lead in of over well XX.X in to lead XX of also definitive the imaging who breast be to analyzed. were these with with of longest also This

Lastly, we on with progress of utilization and data-first strategy. make judicious continue to program. cancer detection resources a our early

be control large a we and completing the for June. are We study, in plan data case announced to

let as share in me that update, Mike of cover collecting Mike? financials. colonoscopy matched the to screening to large study and blood to a before, addition, are of we back hand prospectively the stated In we call QX. With samples, we plan cohort results that the

Mike Brophy

of points them margins, covered made. a and QX key progress just and summary the P&L here. Great. revenues on in I the next Steve slide so The won't the is year-over-year repeat Thanks, we've Alex.

picking we've technology and the and over revenue investments women's SG&A on several staffing up line, sales for example, our year. and doubling previously. On down expense the in investments from the health that Invite cycle growth-oriented described past team

elevated had in goal on several up of in the accelerating had expenses also given litigation some quarter the front future. R&D modestly, near we the in part activity product in with QX. We the the launches all We stepped IP

which The Solomon first RH the is launch earlier. of Steven, described time-sensitive

cash EBITDA, and particularly year-on-year bottom course, year. I last are significant in where broke on as in pleased line burn claims the think in several cyber QX by flow not large submissions very each $XX caused see has of the delayed quarter given I but even us, evidenced as strong Healthcare this attack. and we these changes improvement this weeks attack nonetheless break even direct Change of was Change delivering claims entire is care the of of to the EPS health to payments been burned confusion by cost us a vendor disruption clearinghouse. and QX to investments payments million year cash and ROICs the

the I So our think still ultimately immaterial results. is to impact

plan. ASPs submitted are well some QX our We cleanup news claims pathways the I think backlog deliver to able dealing and allowed to The team and responses from move payers least. to with still our last into is that will find at responded us get good above and is volumes positive alternative quickly, and overall momentum on

Good. Okay.

Steve true-up slide. We to The the million about. QX. guide XXXX. saw the compared step-up versus in moving health, XXXX. $X.XXX revenue are talked about was roughly $XX implies quarter the now in the at $X.XXX to of next about XX% now guidance a revised million amplified billion revenue billion for addition when growth women's bump revenue organic huge beat the as represents on in expecting financial This earlier revenues, the a the by you year as further On annual $XXX the Invitae slides get Let's we're which in experienced we midpoint to the full

volumes. women's reminder, a our pronounced in health seasonality there's a As

and some in growth we've in volumes then see in as So to modest again see business pullback QX. surprised we sequential in years previous seen QX wouldn't health be QX the women's

start would we guide same stable year. across to The health guidance. them got wouldn't Signatera in remaining strong as to think QX, expect a be I in if levels going quarter-to-quarter these can always ASPs, the rest off expect a and that this at the of can Steve volumes implies but that's fluctuations momentum and continued oncology though saw growth ASPs we We the there higher, sequential beyond great in the be of We've for to and because described, in again of oncology are QX. upside QX women's continue in year. step-up drive source in We kind appropriate

strong So we will that from we level. the at build established the benefit this revenue implies now we've volume ASPs the seeing QX base and are on guide continue in to

out we've COGS usually Steve the already efficiencies section, got ahead forecast, but the year. for we lab and of We've the COGS products stable some remainder his already QX. schedule so transition planned and I the achieved which guide in As in costs, of generates workflow for are of mentioned a our temporary launches implies think by be year, number balanced can this those for

growth those the a margin the chunk stock-based allow onetime assumptions operating in to incremental investments So relatively sales to operations for the in flat activities of litigation our the room year. all IP-related QX should as spend QX the to rest and This expenses make gross for R&D driving SG&A true-up went expectations of and comp. that expense related the to implies compared will year. The for and the are a noncash quarterly remain guide increase

level continue will to I of quarter. our legal don't every activity defend to IT, we While expect repeat that

the are we lead than in grow stay much described, making expenses. and revenues to position investments in faster As still to Steve keep

cash burn the see range. the result neutral on formula of of at the which now has cash can midpoint You that the us guide,

payers quarterly to of have capital cash as happen. will capital, that expect health level, a Now good working breachis changed burn due can it's The that we in example in easily vary from reimbursement the important that expenditures to fluctuations understand are a of quarter of operating given how described. timing Steve and can and timing at this care we to breakeven

a expect have are the represents quarter course, is results. others and where cash to the fully statement, full prone of I flow these have just and to So income guide where The positive negative year we less swings. we

And gradually the narrow through so I year. our the expect losses course of to

And 'XX. looking interesting quickly. an back in what getting flow this thought at very QX This we [indiscernible] slide see results model Okay. is will exact from we for forecasted cash back you the closely The I preparing while our setting to XXXX a that that And can the next of our call today. then. earnings slide had the mirror slide. was presentation quarter I when long-range quarter do this used breakeven goal was call

we on XXXX, operating what today. mid-XXs margins Specifically, annual is get expenses we which at to could $X.X in roughly essentially showing revenues gross we're in stable thought billion

think catalysts executive at investors this overly discounted being conviction in a a Steve, to for business. One I time of lot the the our we but potential the remainder few final summarize on next target this slide, of team effort and starting just spends with as model have slide most to watch key the the year. because of lot of forecasting time a aggressive, the

more calls Of course, on driving quarterly this like earnings one. focused and remain results have hope to we will

As health screening of tailwind of today, without deliver results or updated we've guidelines been the women's able in to carrier strong microdeletions.

in able in the ultimately in we additional subject coverage conferences results be requirements variances number analysis be of guidelines several a we don't X expect to on data updates and of embargo the data wouldn't As the expect any in and presented? both [ to our decisions screening academic near see these of cancer the out to may to investigators, updating schedule. of released we our the them by ALTAIR Still, progress and in and term. The continue We've because microdels to expectations usual, investigator year. broad be we MolDX timing top while be ] include time study hands rise completely arrive are line predict. panel continue guideline to this is of continues to coverage, for to carrier pipeline got both to And hard various additional line August, in where announce the types of the caused or hands hope guidance the

are We also this during year. We again pleased have on spent so of submitted our the early and content biomarker time report for an seeing. to on didn't with Renasight good to LCD today. that amount later further QX a that on traction But we are want we rehash call, we estates progress hope

be We course this through XXXX, on further continue our enhance progress is reimbursement most will that likely think to the results. positive seen while to the impact of biomarker-related in year

year of live. got RC look testing, be year forward this and several to major announcing launch the they go our those pleased later to and first are able announce launch with slates we to product Finally, we've more as to

up With for questions. open Operator? let's it Okay. that,

Operator

It the Instructions]. our with question looks first Cowen. [Operator TD comes line Brennan from Dan like of

Daniel Brennan

kind kind QX you I on And side, pricing up think Maybe heard bit new pricing you're here hear what on Steve, -- then little on of price. a terms you from to Signatera that? just and keep wondering existing docs, on just maybe volume it the Mike, seeing of in first the docs sequentially, and would of Nick about couldn't the Galaxy I flat the one you heard year. in talked I elaborate think impact. throughout why love that I Signatera, from ticking

Steve Chapman

Yes, great question. it's a

tend So want you within mean, new really to grow look Gap] utilization any it practice, accounts starts want within and once the new to one and within [Audio increase diagnostic, start you tends spread a They then to to growing, their accounts with And the to when Signatera. at increase using physicians, continue practice. then business the clinical it. you sort add I using doctor of

do well, So great about coming and data We was additional talk GI, think increased that very out to had that we study. received the want lead ASPs? we're obviously, some Galaxy growth. Mike, you ASCO to seeing of

Mike Brophy

Signatera mean above Yes. No, the question. I quarter. a thanks the in for -- are yes, ASPs I think $X,XXX so

more I the increase for the of there on scope to at year. ASPs recent think to of ASPs, fundamentals As kind through I the continue mean, I look is Signatera course the

that as states like were to want prepared on step of some you Specifically, shoots on but we're Medicare a from see just rates come this judgment and down looking out I'm we up talking turn some I want may in And cautious more history bit really accrued the line come at it from continue again? may like really, payers the do ASP And -- call, these they a Advantage trends the how to accruals accrual, about we payment the quarter-to-quarter you early see and much to remarks. green before history biomarker just to there.

our remainder of pretty ability So ASPs grow for the [indiscernible]. I feel the good about to

history great of see the -- with maybe stable within back new think. look to to precaution. to these trend at really levels? coming that enough ASPs, the see But So online sector hold fundamentally for underlying it a I payers steady ASPs ] why [ the given kind And goes starting on payer accrue. before fundamentals that it question the guide, just want I begs just to -- that

Daniel Brennan

want then XXX the to margins, ex really I just gross And up Great. us beat follow on maybe strong. true-up basis over points. still Even by

So you think beyond cash the I discussed and collections true-up. also ASP COGS reductions, then

had hear the I you just you thinking I'm did margins you're just right, from from flat of there's would tailwind the assume wondering I like quarter, gross So benefits here. those. some guys possibly in further

just a think what drove and maybe bit about forward? speak to how we So of really margins going little beat on the gross that kind

Mike Brophy

implied -- I mean I XX%. organic XX% like just I guide is the think mean, mean Yes. on gross margins, clarify, and now about I XX% to to

just that, total the the in there's implies guide. that's that the it no end The because now of if to gross would reason like in So right? We the true-ups the kind relates mean, fluctuate I margins rest -- some just so improvement through guidance. upside the there's to would XX% sequential don't the also year to in you it's the to And can as guide? caution warranted be year of had higher, the your true-up this up that although for tend quarter-to-quarter business quarter-to-quarter, course, again, ASPs the presume guide of year, of guide, midpoint we through course in forecasting

improve in year. intended through of rest confidence the the gross is our the margins what So to to that guide express is do ability modestly to

Operator

next Tejas question from Savant. of And the comes line our

Tejas Savant

Maybe you, for question just math Mike. a

baked it You about to true-ups, any terms the Can guide your but to beat and raising incremental in try we So help $XX bundled, Invite Renasite-Codigo You've million, $XX Signatera? in as upside million as parse you well bridge earlier? by upside. just $XX the million right? that out you're including $XX million versus of had that got us between build you incremental and update

Mike Brophy

Yes. Yes.

the stable ASPs. some there's across relatively in ASPs we holding about. modest guide in quite board guide good in of for improvements So guide health overall, that the the But the really the it's women's year, the through feel were stable in rest

just these this kind you feel we and now seen makes of we've leaves that we're is seen you're some volumes that for products of base. a to then historically at sequentially you given volumes step-up a upside health. remainder on off big source remarks. And down QX. we're some of of each there grow position we across grow I level in was to QX, massive and Signatera in have the as So that. the women's where, sense in which major start turnaround big of think businesses, from that be QX about Singatera like continued the understanding a not we like seen mean we of those be probably this that to in seasonality outperformance kind Prospera in just we've particularly is in in What the volume although in businesses, that and about so that good we then QX, to are cautious saw just in just a far sequential in the expecting growth and then prepared you a quarterly bit QX frankly, the talked year, a

kind volume to It's that's of on the volume is -- from. board contributing where flavor of that. it's answer So that's the raise but kind boring for some coming from really And kind sorry across the based. really of is primarily

Tejas Savant

And here. a for follow-up it. my X-parter Got

that effect? the as up Kidney some into can Are well? And one you come up for And through KDIGO, any on on test? readouts we gone use you the following you We've Steve, starting from data Is an XX% to as had penetration right? nephrologist then, since just who summer starting see FDA that just had repeat went go of well. screening, see that got AdCom coming are Foundation. competitor here. We've to you have KDIGO conversations some And year? sort in the share could Renasight, how something have National discussions with see with you the starting So

goalposts whether indication. advanced to after of still better particularly and read little in go to good shifted Or that has the versus think in bit as tatenoma that tests blood function step performance out enough? better sort you a those have curious in just as expect for I'm performance mind that your you So the threshold is Natera

Steve Chapman

great question. Yes. That's a

you So Renasight and I'll briefly something comment on want if and there's then Solomon add. KDIGO to

updated So well certainly, very about lot guideline. of there's received. with the a having excitement -- physicians conversations about being I lot we've the those guideline been mean, it's of and a

is market, disease. there are something sitting which this XX that think a I kidney Americans lot in So to more range here that the diagnosis with chronic of think, or penetrate there's, I maybe of million opportunity deeply

exactly increase So goal working a get is what that that more all utilization hope an big year. and say. opportunity they're and guideline do that's going what data here. Really, the comes at out. We in looking at the be think new I coming not It's some physicians test. we're the with KDIGO to there's go closely the on But more working within we think the necessarily the to now. this ordering NKF accounts, will with don't out updated coming the I to point future. think and know obviously We it's

on readout I obviously, that's got soon. a we've think, coming pretty ECD, So exciting. And

case-controlled So think there I'll study we probably just June the when defer comments out. until I in reads said

Solomon Moshkevich

I the key to add all hit think there. nothing points, you

Operator

comes question the And Souda with from Leerink Partners. Puneet line next our of

Puneet Souda

accounts, were And accounts haven't of so quarter. be into some deepening account contribution through about the it are pay appears that is you rest -- There also, mean question a that Invite further the patient saw pay is the wins account. first of likely that I accounts fall organic you guess the bolus. of those the no from XQ. year? may account had I some these of wins falling you how had you or talk that far sort to maybe in you and Could

how talk So sort those little us cleanup about the accounts and to going forward? is of a bit sustainable trend ASP of

Steve Chapman

a it's Yes, question. good

a at frame in announced business end think XXXX, cash think lot took we I had over I between business. September that which lower bit And quite of of I of things last is the a rid they think, time really changed Invitae, margin maybe that the pay and gotten numbers, in So when that when gotten January.

we almost the when get. now what little on I is of sort in we're And some international amount it. business, tiny well. we to in able a that participate for And then but could, some a February. weren't But just business up the came of we there, in most where business except So got I did the think ramping going lower-margin to month of was higher-margin [indiscernible] we January, of a we March think there, more really complete but the

full of kind converted the the we're where we there at think, from majority we're organic I get growth, With differentiators pretty physicians, asked Health, the that think Natera, did to feeling that again, of think units significant driving were quarters in a about the got we in the growth Women's the There's record -- company. put growth. the about quarter the pacing think over, organic of day of incredible, I one ever down we I you'll with starting January, said, a of we've good lot is had step per they volume interest also So Invitae have history that momentum But I December. we've of receiving reported. that is from QX. or the see, before you and really fastest-growing of data in in based the units of out, the where XX,XXX significant business and which seeing January was just But last the to started that sequential that. QX majority that's volume mentioned we that continuing a in I've lot of the started where in we was well on a we

Puneet Souda

the thoughts side, of update may to could oncology on NCC latest Alex and it. the success if sort that? And this, you just and how of Got is ask, required Salmon ALTAIR or cover the what sort if there, is timing of of the I the Super. could then on essential

Steve Chapman

Yes.

couple comments of Solomon, you want make do Alex, in. a maybe then can jump to you and

Solomon Moshkevich

Good Sure. Puneet. question,

timing. where discussion change And at on committee a we the no time the -- for that the that based that that's we're the expect in optimistic seeing to is as meets back the in strong the from evidence that that once call. we of chance next have. readout we think trends we the a reported late do the on that. conference that adoption CRC year. really that good usually a in the and they we something ALTAIR pretty I for we think year, readout Diego our given we're and incorporate timing reminder, think see critical described regular some early San the But There's data frame. pretty existing on summer of the ALTAIR based We NCCN regularly marketplace just

committee bladder assuming that which remains be separate being achieve and cancer provides its trial, able seen to expected IMvigorXXX readout it but from Natera goals positive readout, NCCN muscle independent review well. And to that, in together the should of in a kind a So oncology, certainly which as the invasive of would happen significant to a catalyst. independently, that's that, with lead

Alexey Aleshin

Great to to that, Few yes. Solomon. words add

the So events. we surpass XXX did

analyzed. being really is data the now So

August, in a out. So line level. results the come will at top

control do for to do MOSAIC And what generating looks previously guidelines, hopefully guided those of questions I the provide Obviously, be to think we the we've not of there's guidelines data, kind I about think been a the but control the updated. we lot good evidence to like. study, right,

So like. what guidance. look can results timing, guidelines see that of kind the let's at And point, we in more I I of terms think I think the think some provide

Operator

comes our from Doug question next Schenkel Research. And of Wolfe with line the

Douglas Schenkel

I years, nice, quarterly the market robust but clean been given least on rule, these don't a recently. appreciate all and congratulated think in can will performance, We I you, tell beat. I've say a a at I anyone how As all I ever has

of I'm On I just sorry model at start contributions? for assuming improvement year. missed it, the And Is is coverage Invitae think with with So questions. some even what guidance, if that guidance but in expanded conservatism? Signatera said, let you're now first, me ASPs that don't though in the beginning I

Steve Chapman

want you to that? Mike, do take

Mike Brophy

Yes.

So on operative the stable. the is [indiscernible] ASPs,

for dependent of the So back I meaningful not Signatera got in versus don't extremely improvement some ASP the expect is outperformance we've and massive [ on QX the bonds guidance ASP ASPs, ] to half year. modest

that the the is again, But I trying coverage think appropriate that's internally, to think in can saw contribution I that a the which think would pretty to expanded achievable we're we do early contemplate I think things and from versus source year. if do that's the there it. guide do I the of today, some that's we upside way potential

In year with benefit in accounts. now. contribution, $XX We had only think few I initially those of accounts. attributed Invitae had that terms operating modestly Invitae exceeding that we of like in we carved out a this we million the weeks initially mean had the the revenues we're we that to something

strength And I a had in just we just I meaningful on very think accounts think volume was the momentum are coming mentioned Although back really health market the really of continue ability their vast onion kind fundamentally, and Steve peel win to top I of the organic ratifying sources, strong us. as step-up really remarks is when And prepared women's that But which Invitae added underlying mean, on this and the of performance. of speaks that of QX, of in is additional quite that. that grow to kind sequentially the to highlight I we the majority the franchise our would his a which this from to around that, kind share. over

think above the and size is I that's the above, the it's incorporated of So raise. Invitae in expectations

Tejas Savant

try the quick I'll Okay. follow-ups. And to be with

on because going First, rule, we're seeing you are from for as a would wanted to true percentage investors versus at name. of this the other point cleanup to as getting long time Signatera expansion question in just one new assays surveillance look MRD. guideline it increasingly touch expect to women's What as today how on the And actually then ASP increases a the take side. I health

Steve Chapman

first Yes. I'll question. comment the on

of in we're -- rapidly. franchise. exciting we're business about Natera now the flow investing the in really both the things one increasing this milestone cash right that's growing our and So breakeven the and We're in hitting is future innovation of commercial investment

the future. But So big to strategy be at time, time these at in not we're company's doing really of working. one of and catalysts same the it's all in the that forecasting things great potential impact those come the seeing could

very future positive. The For come very guidelines a was Q if to could months of If in example, X quickly events meaningful impact 'XX impact you definitive. have the guidelines coverage as mentioned, these and of X in does very can potentially take they can vague, through if it they're are the policies And period be like significant payer little sort an if the guidelines. the at more it all. a are guidelines do longer

says. it have And on really And and depends so going to just the see. wait we're to guideline what

for a think the that second On go was Mike you. Yes, I question, ahead. question

Mike Brophy

Yes.

patients start with Signatera find which kind into utility And high the of with think go because in and patients the in heard a into several what understanding units of remission, the And stable of in patients surveillance we volumes, are very initially very majority always of qualitatively, still adjuvant the of the and seen all been of test. those quarters. pretty is patients mix setting, volumes adjuvant with So are the Signatera course, setting. we've of that launch, us almost that's we're we kind the encouraging. we adjuvant compliance units seeing the staying was of with on kind consistent there's surveillance. question between slight for then now It's treatment volumes about as that in adamant the Signatera

majority be -- that monitoring you of [indiscernible] is that. state setting. in the see. been expect that seen we we've progression, majority we the work to volumes. other some adjuvant still And of new absent holding volumes So a that would of starts just rapid bit steady causing to seen trend the recurrence would to is patient little continue haven't We've steady you your And vast but what's the have quite factors,

continues the top So to you grow just really of rapidly. of think the about kind funnel

the penalizes margins the future. actually I think I great the in of in here term, the a your think order So immediate sign that's for progression that but product

Operator

And Schulte the our next Catherine line question with comes of from Baird.

Catherine Ramsey

that on 'XX $X of with comfortable maybe earnings feel revenue. you XX% to get plus Mike, gross target over plus that this Do slide First, showed. when you EBIT you XQ and from still billion margin XX% margin

Mike Brophy

to achievable. as economics. And more like -- the the we've want unit $X that. So I conceptual we come to dated the question. the trajectory what the the a is mean, someone about with years in and are going to based that and cash I target obviously, but been thanks if what you think ask of about data knew pretty continued time come to able point, XX% plus, of those I the I to is prospective get was, few that. mean flow excellent billion come obviously do to you're publish was yes, long which require of I steady margins, if Catherine. business going kind down look, the state. continued on, to you're the slated out this Signatera I kind breakeven and pipeline, path I think think revenue go data, maturation I me this getting beyond that XX% on term? I willing no, we'll ASP, forecasted safe not EBIT is mean, types support at think margins going to I long-term to guidance can this think looks about Yes, think, and talking we're for mean, that are be

-- talked the some prepared margins the room health we from meaningfully, yet can guideline if the that we seen, as remarks. there's still think I in move about you benefit to get haven't particularly from inclusion

it's really margin, function of we're need revenue those EBIT expenses of don't this seeing I happening. the rapidly near variables a anywhere described, couple as we growth. plus to grow concept On just that as

if And this scale revenue $X in still margins, So an I that so to right? well every us. line, that I XX% more beyond XX% increasing -- think drops to do gross you EBIT percentage are at bottom get of given the billion, incremental think here do play from for dollar margins can

really the business, of So encouraged by obviously. the trajectory

Catherine Ramsey

in any Or outperformance on Great. volume right. it are indications broad-based? the that there particular Signatera the strength? quarter, driving then All And is that are pretty

Steve Chapman

Yes.

you about want talk that? Solomon, to do

Solomon Moshkevich

Great. Yes.

broad-based. cancer. adoption I and all, coverage monitoring. We bladder and we're was see and First ovarian pretty cancer the of it recently our and core great really just from mean, ovarian strong cancer breast seeing we in cancer in continued growth areas IO got Medicare. cancer, bumps colorectal of In did

lot see that's to that So from terms overall space. of breast colorectal physicians think of in just And underpenetrated the marketplace and and absolute those monitoring. both as as in big are I opportunity of there's a it's IO of But and cancer, great not kind together bladder the there. reaction from numbers pretty a

So -- and just physicians in to very drivers the is of which the thing earlier, say strong test the I just led new QX, other the Steve outperformance? number was ordering are generally the mentioned I'll which or think Mike

Operator

question with comes Sykes Sachs. Matt final line from today the of our Goldman And

Matthew Sykes

of more Steve, on longer-term you, Just, women's just health. for question a

that level pretty impressive in guess, share thinking year, Just growth given of sort normalize it changed fold the women's the realized given have -- just kind penetration category QX, I quarter. revenues and X and when a share. you term segment Any I and in long of of health start this assuming you as of market of relative just long-term expectation this you're in your Invite given about penetration step-up for market growth? terms would on was quarter, but how of a to what's your the saw now thoughts maturity it

Steve Chapman

Yes.

a there's always a growth what we I a had somewhere been and over the of the in second in been comes XX% slightly to lot has in think the see obviously, this to see, start kind we incredible QX we question. good We like grow a for trend the little then that's penetrated. case of have year. again of and normally markets And things share of period QX. due QX. then of around And really mean, in So dip the for of women's businesses, And and kind time. long we a year seasonality that's a half the health the XX% bit the

are a both way actually broader long people of or for NIPT screening more We're testing moving screening, of going from panel. from there's opportunities, also new a a So or gene still where on where still but players, established single genes to seeing some of conversions they're at competitive the just carrier over to to looking serum series go. maybe wins sort

further space. we us. you have to at these enhancements on And get a And always but coming, the stuff So we before, a have But enhancements of more and new products opportunity women's coming. out, new launch RH and us. product we coming think, where for the coming innovating point, of always lot example, out, obviously, and ahead product some for of both things on we're opportunity also I penetrated NIPT we've think create we and in there's health we with said have lot said the the where side, got MRD we side, new products new start

just very about tests there's patients. And opportunity more revenue then about about volume And ASP and lot not growth, in there's still mind, growth. we're to Particularly, keep those still we're a it's also of think the not it's and have help think where So today, doing coverage XX rate that Q we mentioned we getting high where we generally attachment not a I reimbursed. we're where opportunity. upside very are excited

the the for think but in, I room a opportunities things there's like or carrier base even there's coverage some testing. increasing by guidelines still lot panorama Obviously, ASPs come still some of screening there. improve to of

of we it. about feel lots So ahead good and opportunity

Matthew Sykes

in we how are I'm of cash focus then about But some true-ups trips just sense given there's collections, for think understand true-ups your not we I get modeling over And to Mike, be these just embedded QX. like year? the on just a through unpredictability course Great. how should wanted should question. about guide. the QX But sure the it. the about thinking your

Mike Brophy

don't we at exactly typically of the it's XX%, in for course, you'd a accrual, rather trying the to it example. it's the rather be we're But XXX%. Yes, you'd our reason at good why intention set I -- we it guide, XXX% include question. at collect and when mean not set

accrual. my on the that's So mind set when we

I have tell just is have of see amount think let's in where there's terms we of be QX hit My to to accruals x going you, a the QX. hey, XXX% the guide, way goal I really versus land. -- I to don't and

Operator

ladies Matt. now joining, Thank time concludes all All gentlemen, call. you, and Thank today's great disconnect. for is our you that today. everyone. and That may day, right. a And Have you

Natera (NTRA) 9 May 242024 Q1 Earnings call transcript