NTR - Earnings call transcript Q1 2022

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Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien 2022 First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, Vice President of Investor Relations. you. Thank ahead. go Please

Jeff Holzman

Good call. welcome operator. quarter Nutrien's XXXX conference morning, you, to and first Thank

conduct call, forward-looking information. we conclusions materially expectations, assumptions As from this applied and plans about we were in results and future forecasts. make those Therefore, prospects could making contained contain in information. actual material various Certain these statements differ that forward-looking our

comments annual as quarterly factors MD&A, we recent your Additional are current will I shareholders, assumptions call Pedro Interim information before Seitz, these annual US filed report, to and the over our and Canadian report take information our Farah, CEO; as form, well about opening in contained to and questions. now and CFO turn our President Ken most Commissions. and with Securities for

Ken Seitz

morning, Thanks, welcome Jeff, first to call. quarter good and and earnings Nutrien's

of we account solution and compounded many in simple Ukraine. Ukraine it to to and over results The for the no on in Ukraine, supply family and higher have friends our XX% and and fast the other outlook, and many those thoughts that the exports conflict supply has of commodities, close home level of and global has by it agriculture have prices escalated for overcome all conflict disruption. for region. security. of there into concerns that and food or Russia stakeholders also impacted Before employees, and challenges the would commodity to our contributed fertilizer is this our for global significant to sympathies people toll, to see been the customers, the get that express discussion taken like is I We have in

compared crop approximately they producer In several Potash, expanding XX% are As represents to and for more tonnes has products expectations. time. X our potash XXXX, than to tonne in XXXX initial help we XX global inputs, the nearly taken world's production this XX% an to accounts million need. customers secure a million during the our largest of increase, Nutrien fertilizer This increase to of added capability actions retailer and production

our of in production additional tonne, of an years million X tonnes X.X beginning process few are the carbon XXXX, facilities. the million We capacity improving by nitrogen adding and since while of next footprints have expanded nearly the our the over

every of to innovative retail business Australia. XXXX America, America, and These of North products that seven needs provide key critical extremely respond crop team work proud that the production regions not in our across and across do the for organization solutions we agricultural global on to this countries and grower safety that and values Our sustainably our operates our core integrity. are day will and people compromise customers. a of of up stepped be time South does agriculture as meet I'm so in increase consultants our how crop called manner have to

delayed and quarters. recent of XXX assets, capabilities in delivered of our units size in spring Now our EBITDA over despite execution further season adjusted strategic start each fundamentals outlook. the Solutions The turning production North the strength and of decisions business quarter supported our the earnings our across QX year-over-year our Nutrien that first share of past increasing by expanding people. America. market position to record capital and the allocation buybacks delivered two solid million, included advantage We a Ag higher due was by growth the to earnings results to of

supply of certain protection We We our product to as higher the of purchase inventory proprietary strong, season. nutritional delivered nutrient the prices. of billion realized the strong in crop early tonne growth $X.X offshore volumes by compared crop per gross demand in in margins procurement of global margins from We Belarus due EBITDA products, environment timing as higher was adjusted our supply reflect anticipation tight and sales continued uncertainty Russia. spring supported delivered in Our secure QX to a previous Global midst product Potash growers price ahead products. increased and to in effort. margins by buyers remain rising potash engaged this of year. strategically procured and X% in looked to the

season, unplanned our in of impacted higher sales position to were volumes were delivered Phosphate of and by interruptions to year's advantage down a adjusted sales compared impacted $XXX service and season. as spring higher cost quarter, American than start of by by $X volumes increase to first by North ammonia the billion, the outages assets. slow adjusted rail we also sales record delayed In some quarter. impacted the However, We million strong last prices large realized during EBITDA very driven spring quarter. the the and during more start a costs. sulfur a Nitrogen, EBITDA generated shipments were offset experienced input the prices were and

crop Turning from there XX% are than exceeded in acreage we historical which the at strong the increase prices in to average historical in and has conflict the retail input to Weather production. network and were higher supplies. average Ukraine incentives as increase and regions for average, XX% in ground our is led revenues trading Corn, season planting futures the projected expect crop operate to and crop with prices in has is above deliver basis. XX-year wheat grain elevated to time is significantly permitting, are to a compressed levels inventories and the the well-positioned oilseed in more a still below season. the entering spring Prospective further average to historical get to American we increase global a an growers but costs. XXXX, planted agricultural The key in pace, North maximize behind levels on margins multiyear the soybean, are above levels outlook, of well tightening

region, uncertainty progressed, a good intent. minimal regions two is have which Russia since Belarus grower supply the in Eastern most on strong tonnes of restrictions growth other help and potash decline of is a imposed capacity between sanctions and We Nutrien expects regions customer normal of March. other to countries and in assume record XX indicator exports, demand and global and has prepayments Therefore, fill to shipments reported between XXXX early tonnes tonnes, seeing potash this all-time million will Financial level gap. production to and offshore in in of are represent the constrained global expect supply These million than we account, XX% potash where wider from available potash range, Europe. supply XX the with given XX.X on million there high tonnes limited we projected million planting the XX.X volumes approximately exports ship from to markets. have with

XXXX, in to believe the first if for on volatile potential second expect half exports that setting nitrogen to strong restricted XXXX, compared the and is gas Chinese for are the for current domestic global half, We markets restrictions been we urea there remain currently prices, and European lower have urea the prices. of Chinese to discount other prices in ammonia and markets. intends through maintaining Russian floor due exports the government

XXXX. the We of are discussing supply these context challenges in

becomes as create volatility well could of beyond global Belarus anticipate believe more trade year. changes patterns, prioritize and these supply. on customers to Sanctions we potential this lasting have We Russia issues reliability However, to in extend from the equipment, a delays global we challenging. to in to and other region, energy Russia, expect the more greater and of due from capacity prices financing, supply this uncertainty resources development some access new as

potash our intend on Pedro. people, our will equipment to we new going hiring to securing We monitor Update on million virtual and are these capability now impacts a more closely our Increasing at that Xth. more XX requires logistics. how developments as market turn global These conditions increase to outbound on tonnes. production provide basis review over our XXXX our opening our assess up and to meeting forward. have they we decisions planning, require Pedro market operations beyond to as sustained Investor and to approach careful installing long-term will additional allocation, expect capital details infrastructure, opportunities ground, impact and I We guidance, June it people. production

Pedro Farah

Ken. Thanks,

market this in February. guidance our guidance billion. to adjusted changes XX.X the XXXX to billion initial EBITDA Given represents the increased a midpoint, nearly in full-year we our have significant XX% At $XX.X fundamentals, from increase

timing We the to with split first be the expect pace of between earnings the development earnings likely year evenly quarters. difficulty] of and fairly between some second on the impact of [technical to have planting half

will products. be higher XX% we expected beginning prices, years, expectation are XXXX, retail in in are which demand typically anticipated. in-season and to than sold and materially expect per to goods nutrient crop to since sales retail's billion, tied yields, contributes to be royalties, for between generated Crop and higher maximize Potash and EBITDA previous due guidance stronger directly of the the margins to realized quarter. to increased Costs We Similar prices. $X.X are for adjusted year, projecting EBITDA expected previously risen our in significantly as We the to $X.X selling EBITDA increase primarily second volumes. to growers be protection protection expect crop we crop the are had billion which prices incentivized nutritional adjusted specialty strong of tonne XX% to to adjusted due of increase

be carbon and comparable expect controllable the of previous higher impact volumes years, costs royalties, the taxes, production with Excluding offset cash will gas, as we inflation. natural

nitrogen the nitrogen benchmark QX. Our lower in and our outages compared to competitive prices to a planned sales Europe. higher that increase very global EBITDA reflects expectation occurred volume due producers in in position adjusted guidance We cost

We number incremental remainder size to weather over higher plant our events, XXXX. rates investments severe of the operating reliability, expect enhance and are actions including taking of protect from a to

expect slightly a of $XX XXXX to midpoint adjusted generated of the requirements billion represents that our rate conversion conversion and operating we import February, the period. what quarters, investment We we increased strategy assuming Priorities expected the in due ratio to the The majority to in February. cash for translate remain in to into than flow fourth working the greater communicated range. in in This of working our $XX.X cash second lower prices from long-term this approximately retail. activities, is cash expected EBITDA capital seasonal is consistent XX% to of assume our capital as a profile guidance at with generate be very in capital billion

a high small flow, However, given a potash X a phasing production return the capital We incremental investments March, the to are increase our to opportunities. and tonne evaluating announced mine development. cash million equipment which growth increased viability in mine for require we for potential will accelerate few capability

at are million XX we above mentioned, already capability production potash to a Ken tonnes. our closely looking ramp potential As further

our these of facilities, across We expanding low-carbon are will the and acquisition disciplined product would is evaluating there pipeline opportunities the our our US, business leading and including retail, that as opportunities. In and footprint strong we Brazil enhance evaluate the improve position. approach we nitrogen in mix ammonia of maintain opportunities environmental

In our million, growth. repurchasing organic capabilities, We terms share. to is of X approximately investment share initiatives million drivers in per shares key $XX year-to-date $X and at price proprietary capital, enhance that product retail our average of an repurchases we around which business billion XXXX minimum are have and of allocated digital committed $XXX a of on in focus nearly

is Given as the year strength the potential projected there believe cash we returns shareholder for our additional progresses. of flow,

for pass a it Investor Update update June on on our comments. capital back allocation plans We now Ken I at more Xth. meeting will to in-depth will final provide

Ken Seitz

plans platform products longer-term take with for evaluating to questions. is I'm Thanks, value to the impacting It today well happy markets full we for that near-term the all to importance of ensure team, be need utilizing season. and is feed agriculture could never agriculture integrated sustainable by greatest we the upcoming last thoroughly world we extent they beyond increasingly global by supply clear. Pedro. and the has responding been growing The would to joined leadership apparent stakeholders. currently deliver growing are And agriculture help Nutrien customers fertilizer members issues of sustainably our our provide your the in XXXX. a of the our our

Operator

is first of line Your question Instructions] [Operator Capital Markets. Please from go Andrew Wong with the ahead. RBC

Andrew Wong

good and Hey morning for questions. thanks taking my

and almost to years seem of the Russia, biggest Belarus So effects we've that these in BPC, since And on the the long lasting. potash relatively structure the change probably seen market XX be breakup they're ago. sanctions

over years. view at longer-term can where And Belarus/Russia just So of about Ken, on had your talk the the you kind changes thoughts how see XX I'd you changes forward? I'd Thanks are curious as your or five market? Canpotex pretty of to market on the past situation going be some good a the we be seat curious

Ken Seitz

is it this so in thanks, Yes unfolds day. Andrew. Yes region Eastern in the terrible the and tragedy we thinking people Europe that watched every about case absolutely,

you enabling banking activities anything watching are and out well. while that or the Belarus having potash on. are at sanctioned in sanctions And impacts not as challenged, certainly, the is shipping Russia mentioned, and moment itself We so for it's first, Russia the as insurance of whether export of or Russia, are on

of then, there were and conflict really off with Lithuania. to So course, the sanctions no in being from access having Belarus, this tidewater and the to prior ports shut

capabilities these and over in I'll we're are Newton, longer-term you at more say, Chief Andrew, to our this beyond might own well last conclusion, accordingly. might as for in long a could Jason duration And at looking coming just and as things to little these we potash. last have But provide color. looking So that unfolded, remarks the opening Economist, how said we're it our as XXXX, hand the the hence, to implications

Jason Newton

Yes Andrew. good morning

in impact, all think terms restrictions shipments I and sanctions really on tidewater Russian large different just mentioned, of a supply of impacting constraints potential XXXX Ken production. Belarusian in overall as the certainly, given, there's for to supply-demand

in In the around operational X around We be tons million million terms X supplies Belarus compare the to tons, capability Russia impact, million X tons think XX year. Belarusian and to tons. million in million this to quantifying in million of of of XX range year if we this X around sort will operational capability down the Russia base

come Going or capacity, most which forward, to we XX% that about rebuild over to in we also capabilities. believe be time time And Belarus take five as that, export the XX% also we forward sanctions. the will build be forward additions And takes region going will to some delayed those know those will to that years. And they have the it going makes of continue face capacity then, need of rebuild believe next especially forward. restricted up expect port to the we

case, going have any previously. we than in So tighter have outlook we supply-demand forward would a

Ken Seitz

that just, is be Jason. we're around But look trade and think with for alternative sources routes I of from It the prices Canpotex supply. about phones that imagine Could that lay say disrupted? incentive growers world that thanks, crop down today. so has that perspective, global And demand with of global our described to comments, as of the to Jason that's you us are suffice that certainly, a seeing it that it potential said people are homes at driving, for levels looking production. what's question you potash increased that just opening vantage on appropriate what's then some nutrients. of we accelerate for your and to And as and potash. in then ramp-up our Andrew the ringing potash Canpotex And can commodity challenges the Yes their maybe case happened point. finally, really are layer Canpotex,

Operator

Chris with go Securities. is Mizuho the ahead. Your of Please next question line Parkinson from

Christopher Parkinson

make will question corollary to are and longevity of let's the regions of still of from simple that of outlook and things shortfall being the there economic on given mean, who growers further? longevity, remainder to soil else current shortfall, so if an that decision make And even and to dent say, and a you. from nutrients the, potential Thank the XXXX? quick and I you very that the you that take perspective? A capacity dent even has eventually understand, so skip annualized could question, presumably anybody it that your a consider. a certain remotely there obviously, there even a in the Just for XXXX situation ramp applications, I Is in even forth. are be, are will question else lot to just the a what between on make in removed considerations, basis, the

Ken Seitz

projects second going was I'll there to because challenge. And if to be the produce. be there question Well, into is imagine are would these those Chris. also volumes market, have no, incentives and XXXX a coming capacity would through just that with are to today. been Petroca certainly believe additional that some out the of producer that coming be persist there the supply the If it already in We'll we say are the a new of to XXXX, put say -- going market start we -- would thanks, Great for it Belarus and are EuroChem also that out challenged challenges region, that's of to and that their project. whether it's Russia with can or

XX% But to So now. the been just it there a over XX our trade to rationing. flex guidance XX% lot it's volumes the - from demand has terms respect the in certain hence, X our Hence, duration different actually XX further? does to and assessing of with this of to market disruption, last will and looking ultimately, to we rationing, this happen much of come the we what production, Nutrien that's new million take us world, to the to it know to demand at million ability impact and and of patterns, restrictions production impact it your expect our parts production year, course, be right to of market ramp years, potentially that range ton but own Nutrien. add than going demand back over look it where resides the on of the goes the will X at if that's we we're ability question, last to Well, years. what With

case acceleration an that our today. for looking is at there - we We're So volumes.

at of X. the case a, Eastern yes, at production from But June more from talk on about drawn-out in have Day our context will challenges looking to that We accelerated Europe. Investor

Operator

question Samuelson from next Sachs. Please with Your ahead. go is Goldman Adam

Adam Samuelson

million idled could you it around Yes North mining and just But maybe thanks where mines there's whether on Maybe within has whether same bigger kind railcars, machines. internally just questioning of about logistics its broader good talk Canpotex other tons as about that, think bottlenecks of ports, the continuing beyond well? Obviously, and morning that processing of of [indiscernible] some one. you American a still the restraints about and big hoisting it's of you capacity? everyone the in it's X increasing see capacity as line whether think you that's new bunch to and system,

Just about time still potential would be tons and think built internally help a even requirements to come capital and beyond that have bottlenecks you key us that? of kind what the about from X the perspective million where the would bigger think

Ken Seitz

Adam. because thanks, great at question Great look And obviously we it's a this.

Our capacity mines, at for the the to but discharge just the is right through not customer. ports

so time perspective. in looking And we the that very from we're closely lead at items bottlenecks, today, we're say a long and would procurement

And in and capacity rest and have it, we've the But of to sunk, to we that so put as that we the we machines, which as the place downstream of in production have would accelerate order. order conveyance in machines mining the advance place. would with built XX that, that ramp-up, be up put shaft And we to mines, ramp said, say things capacity we well. where we have like exactly need have no mining would you on to other our infrastructure capacity

downstream production but at mine, immaterial. with associated capital So is mining the of the machine

sufficient ordering up, North our positioned a in port do. say is which it our today distribution, would feel from becomes respect well railcars, and true then, Portland require mine Brunswick, The there. which capacity. capacity Yes, gate and it's at really facility to And that Coast invested ramp Canpotex more the so to about their good downstream that require East railcars, we're I to can we going going discussion them we times Neptune port look we with New has are thing gives American we're facility, and cycle very facility, there. As beyond to

XXX our We there. over and across America; we to it have have our railcars facility, again, get Hammond warehouses North

via American path North looking chain there. as we'll ramp up production, we be Canpotex a we offshore, intact see but supply certainly So to

Operator

is line go question next Your Jackson BMO ahead. Joel of from Please Markets. the with Capital

Joel Jackson

Hi. two-parter. I couple a Good questions, morning, a Ken, had of and everyone.

guidance Your QX. overnight but Jason, they're increase realized expecting price Canpotex that QX, a partner, versus in $XX sequentially tonne

You lot have together. obviously a linked that's pricing of

what assuming base where the in I then stay a that And you're to to for in current your are case? assuming QX. for you first of prices Thanks. that well the what So wanted for are you potash see, as that, or is second year guiding year, the part of EBITDA, they as mid-point in kind guidance are

Ken Seitz

our call. own their Canpotex, in would Yes, to compared to I to say you then go think Mosaic so out similar; that and expect North I with have respect might our fair it's on margins what mean, way. can said America something we of

it so, you assumptions guidance. wouldn't because that it Newton. hand of about the that's that But talk And I say over saying can EBITDA With our and respect Jason what midpoint Joel, think confidential. to we're yes, I'll and generally, to similar. be pricing would for

Jason Newton

Yes, good Joel. morning,

fairly into guidance would would the You've probably in relatively on our midpoint closely be current based of it where prices prices remaining with line be the are. reflected, read where

Operator

ahead. CIBC. next Jacob with from line Your is of the Please question Bout go

Jacob Bout

morning. Good

year potash the about see and levels able potash late-XXXX, you versus can key being sense to a Going markets India; talk your soils you in and key inventory as in for where your China of those back Brazil, application. now like comment maybe right on US, well? to skip XXXX, amount you used markets to of is What historical

Ken Seitz

Well, Jacob. and most given would I say that growers the increases, of certainly price recent to haven't set the maximize Thanks, price yield. Great. commodities

below Jacob. then depending levels. incented and would below-average average be now, region or would season the at as the that historical internationally get But today, spring to it's the potash for North appropriate And respect average is of to the nutrients. so down come crop American of that certainly nutrients have important we on obviously, to it say to also entering growers true sort to are today would expect again, delayed. lay And average With sort still We that inventories, year, ground and that and and heavily well. of we case with in we inventory the plenty as true say question, those levels We And that's were at such, levels would an oils, crop down. time inventory levels. crop say

the If reasonable you look China, impact entering those until of especially challenges come year expecting Southeast this conflict down, was of just out the of up we to with in Ukraine. some latter Brazil persisting. for Asia of inventories, true; part delivering are that now the starting but And Obviously and of potash now are Russia given and to potash February. again, the these region, sort see

inventories of expect potash the balance XXXX. pressured certainly and and for come be down we So to for - -

Operator

go is with Andrews Your next question Stanley. ahead. Vincent Please from Morgan

Vincent Andrews

Thank everyone. good you, and morning

at Just of it the also with a for you retail about you is season, you relates think end inventories nutrients. retail, going us will asking American different the of crop also on summer from North guess guess and position as fill protection then if I question here? could help to how improving to And the two one, margins I progress itself anticipate why kind how you in things;

Ken Seitz

Yes. Good.

the levels are over crop moment, mean But inventory discussion end that and way throughout margins? pass closely Yes watching that's with we're to with Jeff, America. respect with North years thank inventories the low. season something the about progress the for keeps So, progression, at we saying, planting you, intending Vincent. We the spring I entered the Jeff as would watching very inventories, inventories that previous it in can season you Tarsi to protection and and the they to I

Jeff Tarsi

July-August morning, into to said. I trying wouldn't to just we always ourselves Vincent. for that, being I myself to fall think target seed July positioning I fall timeframe Sure, to standpoint can. Ken, we'll to good start all or nutrients, position wouldn't of what go empty. what reiterate I'd we which to get that my - we protection. to Whether that and timeframe an we look, come it's year another nutrients on ourselves crop plan in across and near into well. once Once position from empty we another as then Ken anticipate again be can't crop that market and be obviously season, June inventory any of ourselves And into try And we in as strong this close try

reference crop your second protection we anticipated question off strong think protection last constraints there I'll was fall, be our and addressing as of products. around I that I tremendous in supply guess to margins crop numerous would that amount a start that

anticipating inventory last supply so, And we into started building be fall that XXXX. these constraints will coming real

some on highlight protection our and quarter. As as first we built we built And and that's at inventory, of significant attractive probably in positioned early, the positions crop well. cost Vincent, ourselves you the improvement the we saw as inventory pretty first quarter, pretty had a

think these that continue we're lot well, people of of XXX there. some about that are buying shortages And our is, in margins growers anticipating products of on increase crop as a we point to see I earlier increased in have the would some protection quarter. our basis good and job cost throughout expect that a done XXXX well. We up, have as second somewhat got and spring, those our cost as moving the

Operator

is Isaacson go Please Ben ahead. with question next Your Scotiabank. from

Ben Isaacson

want you, situation. come and morning. to Thank good the to just Russian back I much, very potash

rate to you can spoke tonnes Russian XX%, year Thanks. out just two, but three, the four And now, XX% what's course, what Europe, not coming trade I you're US, looks out what talk million of over potentially million down you we're X flow two-thirds, up, Asia. last significant there Brazil, Russian potash it a like and disruption has flow Can to seen about to the being Russia of we've Southeast tonnes, normal. X coming about seeing Russian weeks. market? coming show talk of see know fertilizer of Do China, come So trade about of the terms the you of while was just in the potash of right seeing out but you March. India in in

Ken Seitz

and Yes, morning. yes thanks, Ben, good

So Exports markets, so, a and the that the be and on some continue could would the X.X we XXXX, coming access into and to seeing the at an through do moment. which of example and year course impact have Belarusians the to an the Russians we Russia, out maybe ground are be perhaps, of million tonne. unlike impact China, rail over that of while expect

at outlet across need have seeing their month we're tonnes an the example Russians, million is an an markets moment at the Russians for domestics but I'd that Ben, we're export the impact they're what X.X satisfying. to via certainly which a So But seeing. of the own say is they demand access tidewater, moment, what

And so, the last that's ranges seen, the we are so, seeing but It XXXX? persist talked that in about through as month helping ground? Jason that And whether That's or on Newton seeing. what we're to what the say earlier. you be to remains inform

Operator

Your TD next is go question Securities. with Michael Please Tupholme from ahead.

Michael Tupholme

Thanks.

Another to production million question potential the tonnes. around potash ramp-up the XX accelerate beyond your of

how about you bottlenecks talk you could about production on CapEx bring call. the talked can decide to were Wondering about how with to associated forward, if you think associated quickly with tonnage? additional of incremental in bringing additional So production some and you we earlier should the on though move

Ken Seitz

Thanks, Yes. Michael.

capital. we're moment, our Day again, the to I for about June to so more little up all million increments can and in off-ramps with again say some at Xth. it tonnes, of increments yes, mean talk Investor this XX we And of detail on our that; production to on at ramp of capital looking But it bring that expect this and in suffice of

testing going the plotting see volume up potentially, not we at increases we're move were XXXX with around So economic associated years, that's the certainly, say it's the about that production down - production at the for and that moment, it, to to path as that again, the a anything It's would profile we in not but market see capital few just our to I we capital certainly assumptions the off-ramps testing say given that. our over and we all in that. the the like higher at it's and that think but moment, we're respect looking I'll of plot or With decades context talking XXXX. that, or that - as the where volumes. to immaterial,

Operator

from with is ahead. Your next Bank question Byrne America. go of Steve Please

Steve Byrne

into like retail thanks. could I here. the drill Yes, business to

urea. that Just only Is just it's the need using there you're application they because of where curious, far of in a the rates, more of this technology magnitude need rates? has to in P&K so comments in the business growers there? it, put variable And sharp rate terms it down of grower channel then what's Our doesn't thus spring, application of seeing the of and in NOLA that what any anymore, drop kind really much so your about drop irrelevant? been cutback

Ken Seitz

one; to more the no. Great. question to first in respect your Steve, strong the color on but there, with Tarsi given Raef. That and with it will incentives some with Thanks, that and to retail, I'll again short there over on provide to respect pass are about answer so backdrop question is, then the Ag nitrogen growers Jeff fundamentals, start

Jeff? So

Jeff Tarsi

answer question running of nutrient lot do comments variable Most soil P&K, extensive up, rate set through Yes, with don't really equipment Waypoint Ken's that is a today know, rate. Yes, with today blanket you don't it for rates we you of as back follow-up do in to of application or and variable and we prescription of all it. morning, rate, and sure. Analytical needs. our where the of variable will we Steve. do and come a We analysis testing mentioned your is proper - lot do there. a Number we lot it Steve, And good one, majority to a

we as are I those rates, that back Ken going I strong fall, opportunity up haven't these maximize growers themselves and first give the And last look on if And Obviously rates. said, last we standpoint, back in in last in were in from a every things cut And very we're environment they fall, to seen that albeit, slowed what run, that's quarter, had to out today, probably so tremendous at some fall. yield. think rates. Steve, the

because We really and production nutritional we've as up think Steve. high pop-up going we get a very season. products seen be think also the for to lot full-year our these we demand at We've that will season. products think growers well, in of crop demand, as stepped throughout our a this areas those We in are well, once spoon-feed infra-type

strong to we're planning it a to but think looks and a it into climatologists lot like I in in very going we're still So crop progress next else strong, next be ready our looks the I'm put very week, to environment. week. Unlike here to make able talking going anybody see get ground, of this

that you question. to the going. And things we're back to So get and go Ken, anxious get I'll started, on urea

Ken Seitz

Great. to Jeff, Thank and you, you. Raef, over

Raef Sully

Ken. Thanks,

and the just situation. let's in short-term the versus occurrences differentiate Steve, supply between So demand look overall some market

If is you supply products; the of all tight. the urea, and ammonia, ammonia, and Global UAN, think nitrogen supply all about global of demand.

the maximize and just see season in minute not start and the And moving, continued think go a we And I have to see it the try therefore, start all of products. where farmers skimp at upwards year pricing going slow the the my ground, colleagues the we'll rest urea mentioned nitrogen the recent products is the pricing going we'll solid through of problem is, those for crop yield the is products to we'll of see the to see with start are seed to here. this, lightened. season. for With course direction on as and the need They're pricing,

Operator

with Zekauskas Your Jeff is ahead. question next JPMorgan. go Please from

Jeffrey Zekauskas

out of years. it is that a tonnes demand XX for Thanks very turns potash XX couple million much. tonnes If to million

elevated? why back so phosphate you and their would go that think What you XX more supply or have tonnes to would think much? that? need constricted exports Russia Chinese constrict period it be come it Assuming a phosphate the farmers. capacity internal demand do back Would Belarus more from secondly, to be can And online. don't to we after million much like to do that They

Ken Seitz

over that I'll phosphate provide Jason and and thanks, Great, to Jeff. one Newton, pass potash Yes. some the questions. color the both on

Jason Newton

Sure. Good Jeff. morning,

side, line last would They look this potash are were of year, demand. year. the at they where if with we potash year where really be shipments had a actually probably they trend strong On in

XXXX. unconstrained in XX were million we in of that in terms supply, we if would So tonne be probably range

at forward which year, the next tonnes four demand five million million to million to And the next mark four per you're of tonnes most looking to moving you're years, five environment phosphate likely trend I the just XX tonne, constraints So then a to domestic out last so sort XX, X and X.X regardless looked XX supply tonne We've maintaining over in type government to levels on XX higher in for put be scenarios back supply-constrained has and Chinese taken, that of what The years, a market. the think getting a of ramp-ups question. food and time. cases, security, definitely or and fertilizer low period in different the different changes the at scenario over number given and on to of unfolds, to production in priority domestic year current it's farmers. of in continue million prices food

And second this But Still, something and look phosphate exported MAP, and toward And tonnes XXXX. domestic half they urea year. to sufficient between year, will both market where we'd the while there tonnes big expect in and X X so, tonnes for have somewhere million international we they of is of watch. DAP DAP million this for of supplies, a and the versus fertilizers, the XX as MAP discount is in export that market million they definitely is.

think prices, just be between to market government to China continue restrictions likely may domestic keep growers. prices with maintain the affordable the in the fertilizer low Chinese domestic to that to And to of prices exports for is disconnect I want disconnected. continue there international on

Operator

is with from Your go ahead. P.J. Please Citi. next question Juvekar

P.J. Juvekar

morning. hi, Yes, good

was on China question second, coal environmental of would discipline it Historically, And producers urea global more outlook. price issues? Chinese light share Thank take one little a retail, to down, China? sort cuts the Are in some you in just both - sales more. export surprising related quick on advantage can is of First on the prices higher and seeing and were just seeds there in margins and then on given so up, gross that? you Or your a retail which you. that were

Ken Seitz

the and we carry to to favor you do Great, Yes, Tarsi year certainly, the thanks, it more talk could urea, to of head but goes exports question retail in to and Chinese once over provide Chinese in second we'll supply domestic on urea. the for color market, where to then, respect seed some Jeff about want had half again, back with of domestic And think so around I seen Jason this the to of shut-in it P.J. that Chinese and first half, sales.

Jason Newton

the the Sure. quarter for the the big lot of tonnes typically it's the urea domestic-use couple seen first tonnes, year is and in in half the first of believe terms But XXX,XXX be place, a Good for I it reason think over restrictions. morning, last their of the first year. half of isn't in the that And anyway, that export restrictions was million P.J. the exports we will in Yes, with year in than because of we've less export the supply a China period. There of situation, years. the this excess

there of But seen the move that volumes time Historically, warehouses. we see is advance product removed. bonded the to in inspections restricting when that this it exports. being takes much those restrictions restricted not warehouses the purposely because may delaying volumes are year, place of into the strong export been a export are in we've movement as the to first have of exports So government half in

in July. the the delay of it start So season further export might even

Ken Seitz

discussion And to retail for about Jeff, a over seed you sales.

Jeff Tarsi

two P.J. the of depends slow Look weeks we've of it on we today, talked do off and side us, think to question. last the from obviously got quarter quiet is about a times the for Sure, very on numerous things, I what a for a it March start. standpoint, Thanks quarter seed that really first weather

now, maybe a all I timing so just the on That's And just issue quarter, for basis us P.J. slightly the have maybe right seed up slightly down about margins; flat, XX points. revenue and

share so have and concern gain, in the years, a once and year. get the and this in planted, in basis that XX We next to had the and issue rolling seed no get - planters in this right timing getting all plans planned just We year grow quite that five field. we'll just pickup. the business last organically mainly we we increase seed significantly maintain start crop a just see it's America, over think season, share into point North I Thanks. to about now, of need to our

Operator

Your is James. from next Raymond question Steven Please ahead. Hansen with go

Steven Hansen

And did one limitations the modestly First, a been faced the They everyone. about on for I'm short strike, well US potash, rail two-part in Gulf improve potash secondly, talking move of straight partners Brazil. was may? A might levels. I year-over-year potential we're question logistics XXXX but Canpotex's export logistics the on your to recently to by curious if has direct below any export still you just to for have the there Yes, that of line-haul export morning, outside if good period volumes?

case? has Thanks. the Just curious, was infrastructure if would kind that if think be needed, you any merits, plan of and what that the

Ken Seitz

Steve. Thanks, Yes.

out we those labor rail time-to-time, associated limitations saw And bit with to logistics with CN. that. and Coast Canpotex, well go that made there first weather-related via the West favoring to some But challenges export other challenge volumes port with have it here in America. quarter capacity rail, disruptions again I just back that impacts staffing and to to tidewater North by question access respect a a we little it So And in with sufficient and COVID some mean still, events some from becomes of impacts companies pointing travel disruptions the - rightly were in there the strike, had were where on from of also the think that our a mitigate of get year, to you're quarter had potash. CP we so first largely as was to rail then been I we the able this and there some some

XXXX. those bit the said, were balance the of to compared volumes fully expect year, that first down quarter we last recover while a volumes little Now to in

journey things to volumes with And Certainly, so, rail. we a fair It's volumes. the costs. expect a accessing becomes a it's recover say, respect With things cope all long we these and the to to by Gulf are transport question think overseas. it I possible, of yet, every year, these to

as in can we us, go for well. Vancouver supply sufficient have - feel because in Neptune we head can particularly today, Canpotex's we so our do tidewater, our and Portland to chain, And West then access facility, and facility to where advantaged today we Neptune and

coast, but facilities So, the transport is, the you shorter answer yes, rail can on get then and you deepwater terminal a yes, the port, you you can arrange if can get and potash. ships in

Operator

Your next Research. Michael Piken Please with question Cleveland is go from ahead.

Michael Piken

I to nitrogen morning. good wanted the talk Yes, about the side of business.

coming how If can running where they and where forward, capacity moving right India you the about talk of your you terms Europe, then see now? you then Thanks. offline is if think the see And need about in year? also little bit what a Trinidad much you ops in could in just throughout talk you months,

Ken Seitz

price tonnes case today. million is Great. that at you. and of it is that case ammonia maybe require, think volumes European for see quarter Tampa here ammonia the gas, X the those and we the Yes. the of thank that $XX it some above offline. Well, Yes, $XXXX, so We prices European price is about

first hand Jason I'll over But and the So European to plants color to, all that; Raef incentives. around some to Newton. provide to then have it over

Raef Sully

Yes.

this of February is shut-in, of X capacity back come And saw to you've mean, right, we I [$XXXX], up in gas went tonnes been we've So huge in Tampa saw about we seen online. Ken variations look, million paid Europe. the some closely, watching a lot in price

over $XX gas be to think able need to year, and I pricing, ammonia you unlikely an the pricing of prices. need gas what the pricing $XXXX, have happening for is much international well eye both rest below what's something the you to with keep European on to European operate. be ammonia here to the With

consumption tonnes year. has year. to the let just go grow continued this grow, market point X.X that Globally, to an So continued the you on here, through as eye make a million ammonia to has keep me just

the years, Now next years in the the amount two, two below production is growth three last online you consumption. look coming in if annual forward of and well that

It pass the Europe the specifically, pricing Jason. like shocks to that in market been to tightening. it I'm seeing in war the regards continues we're Ukraine, When unfortunate to issues. So going the to you have With India, and to tighten. has adds compounds

to clearer there much a got Jason, in of what's so he's picture the over think I detail, happening you?

Jason Newton

were in to million year really about we've be the year year expect so to start range versus And X where good to the we strong Yes in of million tons were India. X Imports a ago, year. million quarter tons times last this to X seen imports first up compared they over a of million X tons imports. morning, the in X

the volumes do be for So made expect further imports will million an are increase I tender interesting year, the like watch. RCF what second And and available in we XXXX. in for X.X They're especially recently into announced. supply look tons was get It India the constraints and tenders. the those what to in starting as tender half to again, of

Operator

next Your Spector with ahead. from UBS. go is Please question Joshua

Joshua Spector

conversation you and taking the on nitrogen I lot question. a have for a little capital thanks I my some bit in hi guess of potash Yes, just allocation. work. of things mean expansions,

look something now strategic options the phosphate about that additional conversely of that performance business? for investments time a the given wondering, in side deserves is of improvement Just that things, or is to

Ken Seitz

would discipline changed. our not Great and that well, have priorities yes I Joshua, allocation capital you thank say

talking Investor everything associated over with acceleration, the into today. head to But certainly we'll we're Day, more capital call we I'll Pedro allocation about hand on capital how details talking about thinking on more provide about some it just As - today. been to be we've

Pedro Farah

Joshua, we terms think I changed. our of - you, not position in Thank phos has

running very So are well. doing for We're we cash.

cash the made but future yet in are to prepared to not phos improvements, we for good We have allocate any investment.

going the our we options capital originally going and $X about freedom. - degrees to spoke our be of Of as call. are of in from you of obviously We sustaining higher course, are And we're allocate to cash $X prior then now share reliability more talk our all being billion safety it's and the for starting and we have back - billion come at But excess another allocation pointed the assets out, there. will about position. year billion to it. We buybacks a for decided middle $X

$X see, to investments work So of touched at accelerate potash. and multiple of Ken all willing of likely within pointed the that to on, in of be we this a body strategy what course, doing we And out you as opportunities kind additional billion. we are are a what high that in are a to those is have number payback of return before,

opportunities and we have the before. continued opportunities low-emission that spoken ammonia, we have also We have retail in in

so of all of complete the additional update distribution the is when So of IR opportunities what including June going. to a kind in that to to we June we're come have X, able Day be shareholder - going provide more we for view that,

for that $XXX we far will at And we of different million year, to were lot earnings so, may distributed up buybacks strategy experience be as of seems position we to billion so the And which share. $XX Our in we think a mid-cycle the billion have a continue of terms billion, were been has support cash. just $XX pointed strategy. this excess allocation that out, a capital buyback this a another distribute at working. that share that XXXX, our of our mean, $X $X I and we dividends until $X share

how So so to kind are of more far. that's come but thinking in June X, we

Operator

And go with our Adrien Berenberg. is from Please final Tamagno question ahead.

Adrien Tamagno

do a I morning local How we landscape evolving in see country? thank taking had high competitive question. distribution on share have Because the the fertilizer good Hello Russian one companies, you of the my Brazil. market. you

country see So in at you Russia would easier moment? somehow allow the that do this the with ground the sanction on on M&A or more

Ken Seitz

and obviously, yes, being we what on Yes Brazil continuing and the we're so, Russia in about So in supplied that there. fertilizers to world Brazil, we've I understood if a seeing network question retail to the growing and the grow landscape is part that. Adrian, of and have, focused correctly, been competitive

bit Tarsi talk there to to and Mark our see watching that Brazil, certainly continue But about I'll there. Jeff landscape. who heads our it talk M&A to opportunity over operations just little more, over to work We and then competitive a to Thompson in hand up maybe

Mark? So

Mark Thompson

think thanks, Good how really up the landscape your I structure. Yes, morning Ken. Adrien market distribution question on in Brazilian competitive of shaping the is so is the part

distribution market terms there's And that space. fertilizer has structure competitors companies so multiple the served. of obviously, become of growers consolidated, some market assets the by ultimately to are And been segment in in of noted, of layers Russian has how relatively as Brazil you've fertilizer and that in some the there and acquisition

country, helping -- high-touch, the in years Brazil company about our adopt me. and you yields and we've As and multiple know, in in about And boost technology strategy be a been more been is business more high-service the our direct-to-grower for obviously, that our growing really in model quite presence market. forthcoming growers place of in that's productive pardon more

we've $XXX the few the in businesses multi-region years, in level past about acquisitions. million space the value Brazil ground We've in today. segment to where one of in sort of country. consolidation been. it's largest X we've that's than in completed distribution has the enterprise the So obviously built five fertilizer really, closer And the deployed And

directly large XX soybean still We've XX fertilizer notwithstanding And pipeline amass over forward as got are locations. healthy from X% Brazil. presence have centers. the formulation got to of of now We've production a country. We're ahead have that market to one. X% blending, we the an a fact in seed about in building standpoint we over there the retail look and begun only nutritional ag in So Brazil, we we us experience already see M&A and

room a the So industry forward growth part consolidate it's leaves run professionalize. to us us and going market attractive a that of lot to continues for very as of and

just Tarsi that I'll have. for to comments any he hand Jeff might it maybe So over more

Jeff Tarsi

He And philosophy say a very in strategies as Dias, also of lot in I experienced referenced a acquisition had Mark's the to be opportunities. business. really and centers and attractive opportunity kind Yes for continues Look, that new that we're add business that is experience comments there. as go-to-market putting are growth we said is we're go-to extremely what their there. us, future about in relates I'll is those shipped market. supply then and gaining that dual Retail. Mark, confidence talked great excited standpoint. by the that it you product fact us our in about Brazil our an more the and new we've we experience Ag it it from again, type André that the where for come knowledge which what more leads not there, maybe markets to holds in Nutrien bit to Solutions strategy is think date - as look that except and think growers here America. to And point for our a central get little we and look hub-and-spoke-type them add in some centers light and I technology. we're asset But just the than our a opportunities in approach think we'll centers Those North there, can at are latest and of

Operator

ends Jeff to remarks. over the session. question-and-answer will call Holzman that for now I the turn closing And back

Jeff Holzman

Thank you, operator.

call Just would wanted will open and like Economist to on great that be and a market June to joining session today, is remind our X also Meeting everyone, for Newton, June X. for I us update now Update hosting our day. Thanks Chief a registration our Investor website. have highlight on Q&A Jason

Operator

for concludes call. joining. This conference today's Thank you

You may now disconnect.

Nutrien (NTR) 3 May 222022 Q1 Earnings call transcript