LNG - Earnings call 4 2023 | Cheniere Energy, Inc.

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Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead.

Randy Bhatia

Thanks, operator. welcome Conference Fourth Call. and Year and everyone, Earnings XXXX morning, to Quarter Cheniere's Full Good The webcast are for presentation today's slide and call available access at to the cheniere.com.

CEO; are Commercial Chief Zach members Davis, and Cheniere's this of President President Officer; Jack Vice and me Executive Vice morning President Joining and CFO; Anatol Executive Cheniere's Feygin, and management. Fusco, other senior

actual including to results answers what in I discussion begin, presentation and listeners all statements we forward-looking from remind statements differ associated contains forward-looking would contain could like and your materially is to these our X Before questions, statements. a may remarks, of risks. those that described of Slide our

distributable we certain the these references to of may comparable such measures non-GAAP to addition, the as the measure to include in flow. A EBITDA found cash can be most reconciliation measures, In presentation. and slide GAAP appendix financial consolidated adjusted

of include Partners and today's results Jack and update of results, call and Q&A. call will of results our I'll operating Anatol with part separately or open from provide CQP. We Cheniere's also on LP, for discussion for results to call After turn and do shown Inc. will X. LNG not Slide those Fusco, may cover the As agenda The Energy, intend review Jack and information President CQP's Zach prepared our Cheniere's now highlights. Cheniere call financial Cheniere selected guidance. is Energy an begin then XXXX on will will CEO. financial to over market, the financial remarks, the we

Jack Fusco

for as a others discuss origination of as XXXX, a operations, increased and macro while X,XXX provides and driven we strategic We and priorities Thanks reliability. I'm pride geopolitics regulatory significant largely excellence persistent made by blind construction, our up and everyone. colleagues the morning, and record and in joining key driven yet on and in be what execution net exceptional and here across in Cheniere did uncertainty the review macro LNG touch outlook XXXX. some across moment. But supply stable landscape, very continue best-in-class Cheniere headwinds of each we criticality the and in on delivers engineering promising safety, to XXXX, solidifying operator of who conflict, operational busy is the XXXX strides right reliable promises successful reinforcing across the consistently particularly be In America. we by of setting in results Good global for proud the and I'll today us so platform. to today our take track Randy. you, drove on our extremely of to latter my its stakeholders. Thank evolving reminder in who clear for secure a a its value backdrop the energy customer-focused company despite

Slide Please to X. turn

recent $X.X and of above fourth the year, high which billion $X.X for range. the flow full cash guidance our is end of high distributable approximately in bringing most our While EBITDA I'll and financial total guidance. the $X.XX fourth from consolidated full of financial renew and full year our approximately billion and quarter, generated We XXXX quarter end approximately of billion quarter guidance generated XXXX achievements our year billion the $X.X the range. We fourth some adjusted the introduce in operational to key

year. current gas global and beat for midpoint guidance the natural back those each volatility the nature once value monetize of of the again guidance of $XXX by over original XXXX, Cheniere's Looking markets illustrating volatile we of at that the provided platform ranges million, to last

highlight across the the just billion marked another a we Strategically, significant to full of and by XXXX of income, net year quarter, $X.X total fourth was here. I'll the billion. year For few accomplishments approximately bringing generated approximately entire them $X.X platform,

facilities for record we XXXX, of the $X.XX, per tremendous safety in our platform XXX commenced rate recorded X.X being that quarter, on demonstrated bringing in course Europe. cargoes world with was over the cargoes XXXX, achieved industrial the contracts all about once simultaneously our million me of stakeholders. the representing holding results on in full of which customer XX at and our at tonne LNG the successful We our line construction we a summer. Europe year. First the the to long-term tonnes this approximately within of decile the contract Sabine XX-plus well actions. And Petronas deep to X.X this XXX million foundation very over source forecast production across first day again and annum major safety felt to XXXX, tied inclusive LNG are the standard on was which be tonnes, customer and earlier X by expansion is window We X should top And produced pride a annum of objectives Train incident annum. foremost, million was total second execute recordable and of in per record maintenance with in tonneper we a to commitments. new at commenced cargoes premium project. These for for the of fourth passed our always produced the month, million operating a our long-term total meeting company's DFCD turnaround to the market company's this the of by producers. XX% the continue delivered largest the U.S. while achieving volume Total of a for remained a the pride

and Train X, Stage Stage I'm accelerated I'm preparation progress XXXX, is further to and year. at well third the forecast line, optimistic to Aqua from of Christi steps an Stage in support X commence LNG pleased Bechtel in built Train startup. completion on make X first accelerated production some the to end on Construction Corpus pipeline front, together with and is E&C of we service from quarter time we continue we progressing with the project this schedule over the total advance be X extremely Stage took continue XX%. the expected being advanced X's to operations. important On commissioning In the and time. We over for ADCC pipeline X year progressing to in improvements is to last Dusan for in on

coupled in In plant with purchased XXX-megawatt addition, in over LNG mitigate time progress line, is added confidence our in and we to this of X's meaningful property our improving Christi, to with X construction an purchasing Stage LNG help milestones, million our time which portfolio the Stage commences reinforces in year on risks last my needs year, approximately first These operations. existing second half associated for located power power with the once XXXX. order the in increased production in $XXX project Corpus

help Our world start. expansion of incredibly commercial momentum LNG to the the promising off buyers, project continued over SPL get in commercialization the XXXX as an

have with for We X commercializing over Canada, an annum, all Europe of million long-term signed per of agreements tonnes effectively Asia, Train aggregate counterparties X.X across and X.

of as are the reputation. market's customers. We it Cheniere's are the since encouraged view counterparties I reception, majority repeat recognition value of the of these by a early especially

a billion XXXX team across continue forecasting XXXX We furthering X. We've full structure. expected and and a significant allocation consolidated invested our the application the our debt reduction, the cash project of quarter. Throughout above this strides the growth with amount plan approximately execute Stage visibility the guidance We since his XXXX, permit late focus investment-grade FERC return Vision disciplined results end making to throughout before turning announcing of to regulatory Zach We've debt we introduce CQP. We attention shares commercialization, on billion adjusted work on achieved $X.X flow in rate ratings XXXX bought streams to highly this $X.X are am with focused the [indiscernible] over progress our annual have $X.XX unit our given results $X train run I of of submitting capital how pillars are of contracted in pleased share, tremendous on And of the to almost dividends that on the we capital made financing midpoint key EBITDA and development in plan, paid distribution and million in and across $X.XX billion $X.X of per of and declared and billion are. XXXX, in and per comprehensive distributable back billion again our XX $X.X plan, approximately our on focus down investments. of for $X.XX $X.X to to into financial year XXXX. now guidance, billion $X.X it are and billion great

to begin provide just now On to to project in guidance sheet SPL base maintain X, some the Turn consistent component will and distribution cash beginning balance intend the as order XXXX prior our the messaging, guidance news in response. distribution [ ] 'XX CQP XXX more the the details in expansion it's the in momentum. Zach address with minutes. a on will a few gains variable CQP the and I DOE fortifying where Slide preserving we

and you're announced update of the suspend As all pending non-free determination environmental methodology. the it for determinations public authorizations on an would countries, economic recently interest to underpinning LNG Department aware, to agreement Energy trade making analysis its exports

time U.S. more regulatory this and slowed our lines at into fair the our than and regulatory X framework projects the of believe will for a has and LNG essential either online. With Pass DOE site. While support Sabine introduce liquefaction Corpus in our necessary whole. decade projects required States, decision or natural given have X, Christi, does secure time that expansion action the capacity, SPL firmly clear, down of a multiple the currently and our as as to all mid-scale expected at be for uncertainty not under bring particularly impact within these processes, industry is FERC not development we the To transparent regulatory that does we project expansion expansion it administrations. infrastructure commercial future United a the and I investment, approvals believe said, for gas scale permitting we projects trains

X steam ESP Trains expansion We are development. X full project ahead Corpus Christi and the on in

in the last We again communities low-cost of U.S. for leader be where of in a flexibility in time the plays U.S. previous positions and receipt generational materially recently, for that for critical We application is stages lines at stable soon. impacted we the confident very low regulatory significantly of worldwide affordability our the gas LNG opportunity, supply. expect facilitating Coast more agency should calling the the until and energy This through already of be and the switching of FERC Christi continued The dispatchable discuss gas-fired for to something market. with and prices we in certainty and opportunities in [indiscernible] DOE role security critical backstopping support with I importance environmental your from coal the in X advanced the is the natural the of just confident to Cheniere, are and in working four in determination generation reductions. of been assessment natural the live for FERC plants a letter same abundant will in global efficiency last a we for The additional will markets come advanced end one, over Trains FERC FEMSA, X. Having SPL Corpus X key energy to of X economic intermittent and Thank our LNG Trains maximize, through not volumes for and are power process gas years created remain given: and and U.S. the spent that the renewables. Three, firmly reliability power to U.S. process. to never approval hand X received benefits is restrict. LNG X and won't I on-site to week. decarbonization course, scheduled The that, by the as the have I'll energy a role file the studies Stage U.S. we this global market. maximize the having emissions the believe call incredible Bechtel it proud security; regime. Gulf long-term all energy And domestic conclusion work. Anatol LNG of you resources, and and March, Cheniere. With two, Global

Anatol Feygin

LNG Europe 'XX, good 'XX adapted from economic global and the rebalance to to by as crisis Jack, Global approximately adding amid to Asia trade energy continued everyone. market equilibrium some its new market. XX.X Thanks, throughout delicate morning, LNG overall tonnes market and grew regional headwinds. supply of navigated million the The X%

broadly XXXX the which through X% since Global XXX supply grew post-pandemic to region million furthers Aside been from its matched Asian per increase XXXX, not tonnes demand was growth in XXXX by annum an supply as return. period. Nevertheless, this approximately in year-over-year approximately has this low increase

in this supply Most year have and pipe winter last train TTF online exported high to and availability. In fourth LNG a sufficient the came million for weather, of of half phaseout and volumes growth levels supply LNG rebalancing. Despite LNG address tonnes by existing decreased combination becoming the of Qatar persistent Spot last exporter gas markets third side, of macroeconomic in $XX.XX highs falling fundamentals, Tango than the ahead Henry geopolitical this levels reached year, train of to continued storage in quarter, tonnes ramp-up significantly produced and U.S. continued averaged more to the new On decreased at both the projects down Europe, price global U.S. from the world's the $X.XX quarter in of due largest came XX year compared than the to globally to the of quarter an alone, mild the Russian JCAM seen trend fourth contributing only exports average levels actually quarter, XX nearly both M. first of in Hub first year. through of the and one time, and the were also In X globally, benchmark an M an have fourth years, lower million in Cheniere. output $XX.XX, previous last Australia the XXXX, XX those in Indonesia. the record U.S. The continued in

and full XXXX, year settlement MMBtu TTF lower lower the XXXX. prices $XX.XX year-over-year in over averaged monthly X.X% XX% than For

average $X.XX, XXXX height for crisis energy down price the of 'XX [ in to Similarly, JKM the XX% Hub price settlement $X.XX an $XX.XX during year-over-year approximately settlement average the Europe. XX% decreased ] the in was from average while of Henry

levels. I XX% million peak Power of relatively full, remained market year-on-year heavy dynamics than in demand available by in tightness year to gas demand X Total of gas region's as Norway output the XX% the last the the Asia, address the in reductions LNG the nearly was a further Siberia X.X% last as in storage total data well gas upstream mentioned, and by about levels the performance 'XX increase highest reliance the mostly X.X gas sources the generation. And of or In Germany, X% all due Bcm as about efforts power storage scheduled imports gas key level on the have for China markets reductions maintenance largely physical at half in region's Bcm Russian up Asia's despite of of continued Most in economies the concerns about affecting easing second regional grew in volumes LNG industrial year, rebound XX% a by tonnes economy, XX% elevated since continued reduction more Europe XXXX Asia. a LNG amid year-on-year in below ended other conservation supply. Nonetheless, continued drop, period out XXXX. remained region. the in other year-on-year X% underground year, the further year-on-year, bottomed page. With a high improving increase pipe at in flowing and reduction reductions throughout in uptick due XX Meanwhile, in demand following nuclear million of growth declining demand on the bcm in inventories which to the all appear in from gas Europe, country's Let's China's region. and consumption. It XXXX throughout domestic year storage China's next became aside calendar to X in to renewable supply ramp-up to was XX U.S. in to fell XX XX% The to emerging flows, tonnes supply. to Bcm million demand tonnes supply temperatures, resurgence rebounded The flows amid resulted in for from sector XX XXXX mild thanks accounted these XXXX. in gas throughout

growth forward. expect on continue but in the will that consumption We gradual call to going LNG gas increase continued

Southeast approximately China, year. addition to India led contributed and reached increase also In imports million-tonne and growing as charge levels prices India. Thailand and year-on-year for Asia to moderated an in last global demand X.X in LNG demand South the gas-fired generation power spot record

LNG and Philippines believe In structural was LNG, 'XX, X growth impact due help nuclear to generation to Additionally, come. LNG X highest the we started which over reactors in nuclear demand trend available Japan, and availability. terminals given is new Vietnam electricity receiving Japan expect in reduced to Asia a XXXX. This markets in the their lower and since level will nascent Fukushima the restarted we partially the for in increased demand in increasing for economies import region, will to demand in power offset power to LNG access disaster this that consequently, time. by the Japan nuclear in capacity imports continue gas-fired years

Let's move in we'll and for economies. other where the consider next gas to outlook the slide these

As gas amid demand in Bcm for supplies global X.X% in of the increased remained coal contrast, use back historically growing XX elevated tight discussed, was or demand by 'XX developing global on emerging X.X% flat up and global and prices. In relatively economies.

globally. XX% a in climate in increased to row, the a Given significant continued it's in new in which coal fact generation in record. Coal-fired growth despite Jack generation 'XX all-time that for highlighting worth year notable declines renewable second DOE hit simple switching and here already the rose U.S., that Europe related action power global discussed, the the over consumption coal-to-gas overall,

seen nations the in by the the the year. equivalent of and and generation entire shown China was France in is to coal. Coal-fired X demand the renewable than roughly in XX% growth more hours, power terawatt generation India increased total generation 'XX entire by which half supplied growth in lower of from than XXX for these As power alone left, country last of power more

While expected source sector have power supplies largest gas and energy higher-than-normal about coal like these wherever committed globally China economies. More of respective in a displacement and global potential developing to remains prices gas any as energy the gas growth XXXX, represents source global especially growing further in emissions consumption of globally. in decarbonization India their primary economies, by tight broadly, clean pace X/X achieving emissions impacted of of and X/X the generation power coal to years, power demand countries LNG remain double India. targets will require and and of total about hope of in possible, With China and use recent

fast-growing the As decades, over a for expect which noted, coming goals will holds gas as role Natural central role deplete. Asia supplies possibly over chart. modest period helping in Pacific robust result in Jack by demand The the demand outlooks shown the play developed in economies gas on Asia be world to critical increases demand greatest and that in the from further in when these could decline the in gas are the and Europe gas in the regional region powering natural XXXXs achieve expected we beyond

robust the for intermittent the deployment of gas energy is renewable sources. to should demand outlook and natural support the century that gas sustainable global half affordable, serve will displace solution second going an reliable The because coal and of into remain

over over million investment-grade alone, of include XXX affordable all and long-term portfolio and to per European supply. and in 'XX such, seek customer's majority of meet with we are producers, users, cleaner tonnes LNG million counterparties and and secure, tonnes of customers X.X in volume long-term which American are repeat players unique North Asian and aggregate between agreements structured flexible These executed objectives. XXXX each As of have XXXX. The which representing annum end

Our LNG long-term reliably of deliver customers of ability the sign gas, they up believe LNG and from Cheniere's decades in because the Cheniere and natural in for believe responsibly. role they to

I'll the to and anticipate necessary we pricing market over review the to will appeal. adoption, stabilize continues ahead that, premium call broad-based access achieve stable continue results to and Looking With the 'XX our products and turn guidance. to as our market financial Zach have to ensure to

Zach Davis

Thanks, and Anatol, fourth our financial today everyone. and be results financial accomplishments review quarter pleased to good year our XXXX and introduce I'm key XXXX. here and morning, guidance for to full

to XX. Turning Slide

EBITDA results we $X.X For billion the consolidated cash flow attributed billion downstream and billion most plants. the of quarter and billion on $X.X mainly net and $X.XX $X.X our distributable to the EBITDA high were approximately approximately and optimization higher cash adjusted results, XXXX, $X.X open approximately billion, guidance of on of end income recent captured respectively. With of and fourth year of range consolidated range, distributable margins high year generated full today's of exceeded we and and billion, flow $X.X the full the adjusted end at capacity and upstream our

In positive in quarterly addition, X a cumulative we row. income reported net X-quarter trailing on a have basis, quarters and now

moderation As of with full achieve compared to in XXXX, markets XXXX. These sold and contracts year. further by sold into gas XXXX prices results experienced continue optimization year able teams partially being our proportion of as relative under what offset portfolio were as fourth activities certain long-term quarter higher impacts were to our that a LNG to we the less throughout the our volumes well to international reflect short-term being

X,XXX in of XXX year, terms which and and TBtu record income XX LNG, included full TBtu years, XX quarter with the IPM long-term of our were and sourced respectively. and projects third from or fourth initial we parties, greater a and from sold XX recognized LNG and year SPA the respectively. Approximately recognized full respectively, these XXX X,XXX income volumes an XX% for TBtu During under XX% agreements physical than

target parent ratings while of the in allocation complex into unsecured accretive updating billion year. capital DCF, focused of maintaining team's our going with got investment-grade XXXX capital growth of deployed $XX a on achievements aggregate, have particularly of billion. Execution towards at billion XXXX balance allocation strong both we Vision at we In management, through While $X share bringing our $X approximately notes returns since of plan sheet a alone, $XX XXXX, fast available XXXX this plan. We significant from shareholder Cheniere highlight deployment proud I'm bond, start cash and in execution liquidity inaugural XXXX, per my we many plan XXXX to our achieved deployed now rate issued to have placing corporate when entities we billion of entire investment-grade early in under And CQP. status. in off investment-grade to the run $X.X June, over and our September

approximately These milestones deleveraging last $XX our over approximately the of X years billion from follow to peak now $X billion billion. of debt at $XX under

$X.X will billion. We CQP XXXX remaining have which early to after addressed the During hand address debt within the of approximately year portion with repaid SPL all total quarter, long-term year secured $XX million the the paydown and maturities we to XXXX balance notes long-term this at notes the for indebtedness, senior in on the for redeeming in bringing cash we of our the a fourth point of further due SPL plan year. complex

and buyback And strategizing XXXX SBL working begun year. The designed already have CCH. refinance or the opportunities maturities We the at enabling to always, we to as delever be opportunistic. around throughout and plan efficiently is us evaluate as have we both will

$X.X year approximately $X of During quarter the million X.X XXXX, and respectively. billion, million an stock of shares common we repurchased and approximately for and aggregate $XXX fourth million full

year-to-date, so in or or quarter opportunities greater we provided did X.X has price XXXX, nearly months repurchase any quarter currently. is repurchasing just deployment has share outstanding accelerated. And the in compared share $XXX X far year this than $XXX XXXX, under to fourth we so have million bringing million, plan our more far which in the already million so, almost the total shares under shares As to deployed

the year complex prepare X-year current or the billion so, primarily get initiatives across maintaining sheet our the Sabine and its complete the next updating under for share focus Corpus the deploying balance paydown debt be and under $X on the remaining accretive We years. we window, to authorization will Board, $X continue X:X as in with again will the ratio at ahead will our over billion the which point, plan growth with to the now of we coming expectation the plan cumulative buyback the at IG while repurchase

ratio in XXXX, stated per year-over-year XX% having by increase declared share quarterly dividend capital common QX, time, of growth dividend the to our also growth. our dividends for our increased our we allocation steadily flexibility grows maintaining consistent payout nearly essential still intend plan XX% to with and annual financial objectives. platform as We our increase in Over $X.XX a target overall XX% while

During we CapEx billion approximately the $XXX for million funded total $X.X bringing of project, over total the a little Stage and approximately the year X in quarter, to for spend billion project. $X our at

over this of While billion in $X front-loading billion and the in available and year. X billion flow. $X.X XXXX year $X utilize Stage ranges guidance $X.X as now will guidance to equity plan on between the cash we Turn consolidated billion we we are we $X billion adjusted introducing $X.X discuss still to outlook where I progresses EBITDA Today, time and XXXX have expect term to full XX, savings, that over spend our has XXXX. And to enabled considerable for Slide CapEx our CCH project year. to interest our spend loan $X.X towards completion billion in distributable billion full the in

XXXX. And unsold sequentially expect higher rate some O&M we as EBITDA year upward gas likely spot X being some and TUA our As growth we've costs some to It's year, signed have forward move by to platform program. all as international Chevron represents related carriers reaches tied our been commenced of volume calls, as incremental nontrained for little down of clear very our or under run With support higher will guidance for to our of beyond. on in XXXX a since and post contracts well XXXX long-term contracts trough year-to-date run represent million-tonne as these about a sold planned recent contracted prices. These in XXXX XX well partially remaining as reflect are at our volumes existing offset positive commences after maintenance bridging most to as and ranges prepayment underpin adjustments the signed bridging XXXX proportion contracts largely the as Stage selling projects. rate and of the capacity volumes adjusted throughout cancellation eventually

approximately LNG X tonnes likely achieve EBITDA of remain impact will not produce LNG XX optimistic would inclusive or maintenance our XXXX to expect revenues We year-end. both of at this year, commissioning but from as X that through million Stage sites. We it of will this first year, in remain in we Train planned

already Gap] not X% optimization additional open TBtu since forecast billion goes we down drop despite have that year. And call, plan the [Audio In this execute transactions track commercial from year, our this going to XXXX completed include to such forecast X-train capacity continue any of XX we who run into activities, the the XX the remains on in we credit of remains midpoint EBITDA our do sold global as but November recent our our team portfolio terms on highlighting indices, in has gas $X.X to guidance. rate TBtu come above which guidance, the

our incremental timing around be downstream our results could by impacted As year-end of as certain margin further from cargoes optimization, facilities. as and of the always, well upstream

under be also Our tax the XXXX cash the any by for could code changes distributable in affected flow IRA.

for this is on based and guidance qualify IRA XX% assumes today guidance tax However, current we minimum corporate the law tax of provided the the year.

XXXX done of base $X.XX variable common our last At $X.XX. cycles. our maintains likely distribution distribution in $X.XX the which unit, progresses, As and range year guidance with tighten our full distribution we will guidance the what per $X.XX a to of between X consistent ranges year $X.XX CQP, and we've is

and the preserving component funding expansion year, this SPL flow according investment at have we to cash capacity near indication year, or term, until the MLP formally balance parameters, for our at raise of our are all traditional by we XXXX. for cash previously on sheet our of SPL should be call CQP for in project. capital the to line expansion ratings plan keeps in disciplined guidance view and and deep variable adjusting and are viability project a billion financing in of us at the early an expansion CQP, anticipation within $XX-plus viewed can XX% which project the FID SBL deleveraging In in we the construction, variable discussed considered sanction structure. This financing and be As in SPL last CQP begins the publicly position as the SPL time maintaining plus project, base our investments we project the which with the distribution investment-grade attractiveness both of assumed while confidence

over LNG shareholders the to flow well. the at we in SPL not cash the expect increase $X distributable are Since could CQP per win of splits flow target as the project MLP, our incremental share original unitholders, CQP cash high increase DCF run rate meaning it a run to as We vision. unit, of XXXX not the XX% the into and for time only expansion but over approximately would per CEI rate meaningfully further baked accretive accrue was

story this beyond remains year, the the same. Cheniere Looking

gas underpinned infrastructure Our $XX is the business long-duration, built billion model cash operate natural take-or-pay today. style highly flows, platform we contracted investment-grade upon fee, which fixed

brownfield occur with cash flows so and pursue our As demand our over over imbalances expansions, be tonnes approach will value the may investment of that disciplined from that supply parameters remain proposition plus. decade our our million XX to adhering first insulated and the transitory next consistent whatever we

Thank the meaningful to for stakeholders you remarks. and company to contracted growth value provides cash commodity, long-term your the theme to enable and for it time our we interest decades returns in prepared concludes should come. flows, and are continue visibility questions. more Cheniere. to than line LNG deliver your inherent investors That stability shareholder to open and exposure for Operator, so in that us ready the Our to with is our our

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Goldman first with to Mackay Sachs. go John We'll

John Mackay

guys more the the through and versus the 'XX above the you guide color open for to $XXX talking point. of there already appreciate minute gets you're rate. another range. were at run kind that unsold maybe low the on gave end of kind of end ranges of you you you that gave what 'XX, range could high just spend the volumes the I non-trained But It's same but about the million

through kind just walk maybe dynamics. of So those

Zach Davis

And can safe It's Zack. it's would cadence the we're had years in in the things around capacity attractive ahead and in margin of there, a $X end-of-year the is just locked $XXX from Henry I move lifting still million. by $XX EBITDA by open Hub of in the million there's year-end just even small lot rates us, a is as even of million we're midpoint pretty that at timing though the that CMI deliveries, cargoes move $XXX variables move right it's though range. But around and can $XXX the under well those of to comes team. million. With move $X are say that year the now to end, few high with of it end, on the for we the start would even upside only really million are. and last be end the close of range low operationally locked end, that around is to the got something so and low to margins still John, of unforeseen most the it And today in that us same downside keeping couple to I'll the EBITDA. XX% that to have considering the say we've When assume how $XXX basically, going low

had which last be would season than that we a something a year, or cycle don't sort. it or longer So foresee maintenance hurricane we maybe tougher of even

that's the the On guide the plant we've upstream I'd just of locked and in. don't the say upstream optimization, on downstream upside, We get-go. clear very been on from not

as and we course we'll seeing margins the the And accrues, of on optimistic stay has year, lower upside. volatility to then Henry couple can through though more the us is even are get moderated lower, yes, should cargoes the if get ideally through out that So year. that help a Hub

John Mackay

a have obviously, and that I a X, up would hoped. outlook. like maybe we see one demand medium-term and back half the looks and Maybe supply for maybe you as as around of next But warming call. not what just And supply-demand for fast this maybe years minutes is in detail. Anatol. Qatar on appreciate this I been the market the the market dynamics the what the this a decade? X.X talked There's you understand with LNG earlier online focus all just picture of U.S. long-term of kind kind of maybe couple as the coming walking balance about kind the in follow-up spend of lot through of

Anatol Feygin

market trends of market get Sure. that a order. gas supply of Thanks, the what like John. -- was terminals to difficult kind most Thanks is being infrastructure for goes to that of add in don't was the to right? questions. are long-dated supply tonnes get The I'll in by coming deployment things and couple plants and that the of investments start are a function to into gas-fired it to as a are that where inexorable XX.X function will commitments infrastructure. Not the placed and of month we years, power are it very the a million and at of allows the grow turbines The for margin. So grow, encouraging difficult that regas see globally. and the the needed reverse kind we things us,

attractive high these with a are and and is get as but are in mentioned the we double-digit reasonable BTUs. And competitive we prefer their on LNG sources. prepared So hands generation can world where the rates single, returns in coal for us attractive consumers low those other where remarks,

we very optimistic. So remain

volumes into see South You'll going and Southeast Asia.

that market. marginal New back pace. into Year. last types with Chinese engagements to we think commercial are decades days post that decades that for counterparties these trends have -- And continuing commercial We're the at kind come of in those of You'll and of demand seeing that even the come. And the the those early elastic are we the see will kind already

comes whether things robust and think have been or wave. as they delayed market will schedule historically, ability on enjoy will we the think growth we if the next modestly and absorb So online, are to market absorbing this it show that this volume

Operator

JPMorgan. to next go We'll Jeremy Tony with

Jeremy Tonet

kind midpoint Just guidance unpack there. if beating of $X.X earlier prior When more it's the I range, little don't you a wanted the know or your about talked billion comments to so. bit on of

number Shire Just wondering volatility been of downstream operations, able market, quantum in looks realize what of optimization the to that like? what type has of both upstream and because

Zach Davis

optimization further in a it's Hub the upstream hundreds of even bit Mind in and millions of I'd It's been and today. was downstream moderated hundreds Henry dollars, Jeremy, 'XX, millions say, up of down last side. year you, terms of of in significantly both the in dollars, the and

side, yes, tonne And a can we'll deals. So have much IPM see deals, we how be the of there. other then on DES

millions well fit get you, opportunistic has terms in things in add we as subcharter those the throughout optimize moderated added the which the of -- of out take see year has when and you high it market shipping for and to yes, of But of as those volatility. any even mind great together, of us end past really in X would our the some execution our we'll to length hundreds moments range. portfolio, the dollars, So that

Jeremy Tonet

Got it.

and downstream, the today then as be think see to both about Is to just in synergies into baked locks already because guidance dollars the millions hundreds really we So rather, there, down. that it of you've just guidance And not of upstream right optimization or really we've things? way what the of clear seen that's historically. locked

Zach Davis

for still run this have to Chevron XX X midpoint and into for we're thought And pretty the run clear We rate. we're away how from quite year, would time were anymore. this the we and down we about now that now Yes, be only the we were to we would trains, closest that's rate the right. year as considering it proactive range some going don't be of TBtu, above even

of not and this into million. the was vision $XX-plus baked And things to play So but the cash out this guidance through see $XX the side, baked where is how we'll today. expected it's into billion flow we XXXX optimization It it be. on

Jeremy Tonet

Got it. Very helpful.

not guide. potential the upside there. a Very lot but clear baked into of So

Operator

We'll go next to Brian UBS. Reynolds with

Brian Reynolds

about variable to the cut distribution Maybe on the side. just talk

to about If translating build. talk sizing like and you and just X.XX XX an [ how of it ultimately, the ] that MTPA could timing expansion, assuming help into relates

bit above of component So it rate. variable still the guidance that X.X seems run kind like there's of little in a a

to SPL came you it think we that And the billion just to prefunding be how how expansion? about given curious of $XX kind just billion $XX should number? So could for

Zach Davis

Sure.

as inside cash both over with the even almost guidance we unit PQP. more over would about I than the adjustment, say, that years, DCF give. the rate being million X out probably years, we with $X were variable last So we And run including the our thought distributed $XXX per incredibly efficient the we variable distributions, the

XXXX CQP. that the bit we're just equity targeting investment getting as of some for of debt a large variable, closer into being base coming stay grade this say, that's once to say, that we're maintain to XX-XX debt and time of go add and flexibility still cash the and us a paying we $XXX and actually to to million are that, that start FID down down expansion the officially will bringing due, let's project, the portion around, with during now saving and Sabine the giving with the Sabine distribution going FID at So filing retaining leverage it's FERC financially construction capacity throughout let's while we're

purposes. dividends now. debottlenecking do you, that on the of cash there's of some X.X% going end the $XXX also needle need And first into the we hopefully the Mind pay the exchange the getting Sabine some retained We is to ways even supporting we're start coming to we've to feed range for FID. there baked of million to that's can expansion that, for in to trying thread development in X.X% higher ready years. to and planning or there. So so get a to think found us And

the of billion but of you, billion build to to $X consolidated this over CEI. that can that DCF and CQP there, pay down almost the going and term. of and it's $X to still into in project -- distributions going about $X year billion in we're almost is flexibility talking leverage things But off of $X if term to this Mind near of long with and EBITDA, few get a talking DPU, capacity all mainly billion there's to CEI. we this we're pull about So out $X.X in it debt coming add

for it's all win-win So parties. a

Brian Reynolds

opportunities a know we asset being capital there's It Right. and and maybe was the rate. further XX I Makes it sense. some I Appreciate all run seems good that. as like boil My existing some second around just SPL with for efficiency seems gas But off base, kind you the expansion, MTPA optimization. think other optimization of about like about above think things. that. talked question, 'XX

of forward? help ahead technologies XXXX, asset kind we the or all some and the are out base optimization asset have could squeezed we new As optimization existing existing engines further look on that there base? Or going drive the on of efficiencies

Jack Fusco

is the today, we're this And always going folks Jack. Brian, while I'm can not million tonnes operations XX at deliver. my of upwards amazed to what guide

the So whether our or we constantly trains optimizing it's schedule, outperformed. maintenance they -- have just

Zach dollars for $XXX-or-so So million we're mentioned, debottlenecking. now, looking as

new promising our gas. think big use fans I a things fans. Those is a there's are the cool natural liquefy that fin we that to really the of opportunity of And One at the we there. we're looking the find technology refrigerants

later So and I earnest to we'll have trying news that out you be more year, this calls. for on hope in

Operator

Theresa next Chen go Barclays. We'll to with

Unknown Attendee

of competitiveness industry. to curious I'm Going the impacted that the commitment, the customers how and just can pause, LNG back backdrop. salient conversations respect regulatory would has and great. U.S. on perception LNG provide With the context but government and broader with be customers, the commercializing to commercial exports in projects, the within your the to Jack's global of comments the DOE both this you evolving to relation color Any expansion credibility also of your U.S.

Jack Fusco

years, those scientists going or were and is have the as it a benefits that benefits really proven has over I exporting proven, isn't just the know by U.S. comments, polling interest us in we been I'll it to to is theories here over they to to at factual. multiple new. Cheniere. we of new hypotheses multiple over We've then last to gas. What and America's I and our X some on but They're I'm administrations this witnessed allies through theoretically through say studies the know, start I America been -- Cheniere all turn public are Teresa, you and that world. the the exporting to they overall Anatol, I with need think tell benefits We've natural using find LNG. And think not. But shocking are

little seeing forward report. I memory. be will facts get comment I and our be been a and we a I'll he to forward So bit can so distant turn prevail. tell I'm can this hopeful look have accurate. about evident it will And to record period with look this our you that, that what the over heads the Anatol, that with study's ultimately But to the really conversations cooler customers. pause and straight

Anatol Feygin

thanks, Yes. Theresa. Thanks, and Jack,

would kind new just exports XXX of component in tonnes the the navigate say, providing a profiles U.S. of doing things million Just to on science off. point, X this up is be LNG to This things the to then, to annum memory on the distant dedicated goes of mid-XXs from believe equation. mission have for all the the time new with million market's We the emissions and the will of been as to still per from that Jack are and and million-tonne the exporter, third this exports our XXX X are first tags a and close capacity gas is Jack's quantum course, doing tons. the that will is our in the where today pick we of study. years first tracking the think LNG we last that equation left the of And environmental are DOE. A U.S. really cargo I X, lot DOE that U.S. this

we review that to line. its relay our confident DOE prosecute the are and our and we commercial we we answer of to updating methodical on that to be to look Cheniere kind point, the continue Jack's engagements and will and So same DOE's customers comes science-based on of to -- profile, expansions able but whatever are confident out we our time navigate our forward

have a and But are Every we've major these we navigated So that obviously more or firmly that's to we'll confident believe that. a a we pivot so. and discussions. give message do this is is them modest pivot, customers, decade pivot, our exactly is the a continue there for whether we not plus to time new. that And

Unknown Analyst

currently in price-sensitive be the Anatol, And that? interest. prices benefits comments what your you buyers increase And that to back remain on think can of market do going magnitude low? Can the elasticity to you as demand elaborate if the related

Anatol Feygin

market say in over unprecedented to of that sense Yes. X is that it's years hard infrastructure Look, to been period. over unprecedented the brought dynamics these the -- are the kind that of last has the amount online X that

we now of half X. back online X, new the coming that decade. a talk that's the regas in liquefaction weeks. of Asia a the So add has this by added not month again, there's days goes will coming in Southeast capacity But amount about in added not Europe Elexandropolis Greece terminal. Europe or

of will tonnes which exports, of consume and annum million almost obviously scale a now capacity. So are of to this the enormous, ability per approaching tonnes the import to XXX volume grow current X,XXX we relative million

'XX. That in early as position low, markets much like was are position in have India volume elastic strongly moderate, as was when not India, imported to now rebounded than a So twice price that consumer. a which prices prices as it it more were in XXXX and a was import

as to elastic see India, are all surprised to et take I Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, that price So upside think in a incremental cetera, position volumes. function you'll the demand really meaningful

all to in coming. I numbers again, on and see we these So terms historically, they the front. And think utilization. downside surprised liquefaction that And quite optimistic schedule have of

essentially the you how but certainly rebalances, has will see supply to it side. the to capacity number we'll whatever consume So world be added think the

Operator

Spiro Citi. to next go We'll Dounis with

Spiro Dounis

Wanted we could, vision, Zack. to to XXXX the if go back

then forward of mentioned that of or you some sort that program. envisioned focus does How puts we not just outlook 'XX And coming and Just and be and on sure about billion takes $XX I for you about that LNG -- I the you think in curve I'm you shift X.X outlook then. what to if tracking 'XX. of we're as 'XX years through guess sorry, target. that to where on ahead even plan had into may II Stage date. But the early. the imagine set XXXX back compare

be to trying imputed conservatism how Just there. much understand

Zach Davis

Sure.

always say year We've 'XX, I available and past And like we're until of more be puts money meaning not So to train for through planned was time. at of even going takes. -- contracted. period and would that billion $XX-plus in there just still the assumed some made online wasn't to dates completion X This Stage year. guaranteed highly of then cash come XXXX some X are years we even outside

the CQP. CEI we're be So Stage time. will buybacks, pay the going is than that inside the over funding to on we've on up the all over in, $X of billion. this over thing completing excess $X.X the down. catching billion of of But can still point, over $XX that XX% done is we've so of this some paydown, be back on going At did X. even going forward. And about deployed staying mainly debt equity which to tell $X of We've we done in less billion XX% focused really debt you about billion but deploy we're of cash year, as focus how to and with main and

billion, occur So for the that there's a catch-up X:X. that or still still of to $X.X needs take, give

and point, be this that Case shares up million in set end year, focused on pretty the keep the XXX long-term this program this, So of have year. in marching path the trickling run down. And outstanding was the at or opportunistic long-term to the early be by probably we'll shares again why is rate. like that's on to the and upsize yes, eventually next on plan year we'll times to

Spiro Dounis

That's it. Got Zack. helpful,

one the and given of Second natural largest your, the question, of think, largest I buyers just gas.

how the curious few the supply years. next about Just thinking over you're

other from producers given now, of where some just there and right centers rise understandably Mid-Atlantic, the shortages the types pockets data is. just of At the to midstream companies same think time, pricing that in due in I retrenching going needs. are electric

do that So you the to capacity going producers outlook the think are years, deliver supply? to sort that up online LNG in you be of able stand the as think and all when on curious about next comes few

Anatol Feygin

more we're Look, the another equivalent Thanks, developing this long Mid-Continent infrastructure. very This pipeline continue which Valley challenge continues of anybody The to Permian Texas, we'll resource incredible get the the an can develop mentioned or the I'll have, the sacrosanct, think to supply in. U.S. Spiro. decades in very Mountain going Gulf our and multiple resource the infrastructure gas we've it Coast to the be said, grow, in out building Obviously, Louisiana, in confident infrastructure and jump of it's home, supply and and and with we need us. Jack we economics and is times infrastructure, take well. is that to what our time confident is that reasons to you resource for attempts for why resource to and facilities seriously us Anatol. and of one comfortable necessary as to ADCC is Marcellus years intrastate and nation. Northeast, that's in before Utica. That many I come. pipeline a and the that's highlighted the moving And we're needed very know

more interstate you as need will probably We filed together infrastructure applications. SPL we saw for our with

well. So the to Gulf we're that but was that supplied. the in would confident to well market resource as be obviously will Coast prefer country able get to continue other

Operator

to Scotiabank. next Tristan go We'll Richardson with

Tristan Richardson

for me morning. one this Just

cash on to variable in a philosophy potential rethink is the SPLX? levels -- focus of going with relatively plus could base I But a at on back the XXXX. I question prior anticipation here a that distribution mean more retaining the there you think CQP. that proposed of Following about new, is in philosophy

Zach Davis

was we in lot out being a MLP. 'XX efficiently and position project what planned inside 'XX XXXX mega cash of a think planned an do then can distributing in I and for where in a we

We when going the as meet developing had actually above XXX hold ] we preparing able enough our be base, even we're So for to and Sabine set that. the we the this cash year, expansion. distribution that. intend to into [ objectives to Obviously,

the and going FID next years, maintain that CEI project it cash project to we're the distribution, to investment But goal grade unitholders. stay is distribute within base in so our the out down to And fund of in the to flow. when comes the and couple everywhere

kind XXX MLP, trains amazing fully billion an of then or pretty X distribution all works, yield. yes, as ] which you $X for [ talking running, again, about this X% it this of still the an ] over is the So with And but and and X up XXX we're [ about distributions well. works base quite think year,

going us right in the our were we was own with that and So competitive holders CQP. kept unit stake that, of and direction in sure making cognizant our

Brian Reynolds

I then a on follow-up appreciate Zach. 'XX guide. And the maybe just it,

comments, of maybe think a kind you more that the contribute work volumes you -- and train upward of can highlighted bridging proportion just how talk prepared mechanically guide of sort one run I items upside? X versus in the that in to blames rate. how of higher bridging about the the Can you

Zach Davis

are long-term already our FID X underpin Sure. Stage helped contracts has before X have volumes Those begun. Stage that us that begun basically bridging

this and XX% why volumes So our [ those we XXX in [ ] XX%, bridging went XXX contracted. ] range are year, into to

will curve the when XX having about the on a think blend XX XX-year value volumes though, years we over get near-term the liquid, the years. bridging context the some the deal. If XX- it of we curve in is So and volumes, for over to

those a about dimes start are up that talking margins So deal running might only and here. with incrementally and a to of nickels train up but a CP we're

Operator

Nolan take Ben question from final We'll our with Stifel.

Benjamin Nolan

cadence is the first pretty and everything EBITDA for be going sort how fixed, comes one, any virtually appreciating the we year linear how do of the Well, through? that about cash it flow think as to you and out to Or is there plays my be should think?

Zach Davis

site. We It's never perfectly the at more months linear. the winter produced in

we tonnes and a guide seasons. So year versus -- colder forecasting the $X the today. we XX% with now shoulder not EBITDA million But optimization, should billion are don't quarterly slightly expect $X.X quarters why that expect that, summer you XX we EBITDA of billion contracted in the But on it and basically, or should the be more basis. to and we a I'm of

So that's variability could that create thing some probably the quarter-to-quarter. only

Benjamin Nolan

the getting the guys for hurdle if this -- And time appreciate Curious process. is rhetoric business? my that. think that increasingly projects? I on the new third is Okay. how regulatory the just more we've is going challenging changing for Washington is this through you of do Or then this follow-up, been about obviously, all side, thinks it you think

Jack Fusco

No. across SBAs Well, of is but been line. between cost This act and one a easy, balancing very it's We a years the and higher, business. It amounts get right? else. hurdle financings to it first, not. capital-intensive contracted look make and It's finish these and the everything takes has capital always Ben,

which in survive been, back positive On all I the only will think on. that I and on Cheniere of sanctity. And America and every and where the where you at your market regulatory at around for before, hopeful market the support. they're always to day, ones And we going while dictate -- won't. day. Thank go contract motivated, single which we past the would is bet And politically was has thing been the to who we've this which bet the projects the certainty the end is of were that's all extremely I'm let efficient we

Operator

conclude your today's We participation. call. That will appreciate

Cheniere Energy (LNG) 22 Feb 242023 Q4 Earnings call transcript