The Progressive Corporation (PGR) 3 May 222022 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Company Profile

Participants

Tricia Griffith	President and Chief Executive Officer
Doug Constantine	Director of Investor Relations
Pat Callahan	President of Personal Lines
Jimmy Bhullar	JPMorgan
Andrew Kligerman	Credit Suisse
Elyse Greenspan	Wells Fargo
Michael Phillips	Morgan Stanley
Gary Ransom	Dowling & Partners
Joshua Shanker	Bank of America
Greg Peters	Raymond James
David Motemaden	Evercore ISI
Yaron Kinar	Jefferies
Tracy Benguigui	Barclays
Brian Meredith	UBS
Alex Scott	Goldman Sachs
Meyer Shields	Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.
Ryan Tunis	Autonomous Research

Call transcript

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Operator

Welcome to the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event. The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted on the company's website, although our CEO Tricia Griffith will make a brief statement. The company will then use the remainder of the events to respond to questions. Action is moderation for the event will be Progressive Director of Investor Relations Doug Constantine. At this time, I will turn the event over to Mr. Constantine.

Doug Constantine

good and Emily, you, morning. Thank

for com/events. Investor Although leadership dial-in at and presentation Progressive. instead a instructions often introductory team. schedule a dial-in question-and-answer telephone session of can events a our use by specific our investors. CEO XX-minute will Questions Quarterly by on we portion include business, only participants. found for asked members Relations The of our event be today's with maybe the comments our be

As this on statements. current that to in those events always, statements expectations These during from and materially actual risks discussed subject forward-looking discussions and today's include may event differ results are are uncertainties management's based cause many to could and event.

uncertainties on factors the annual and XXXX, ended of quarter statements discussions related in Additional where our to the supplemented year first will those is Form of business, face. the XX, for reports find information statements, report we risk other XXXX, as safe and XX-Q of challenges forward-looking harbor affecting you December our by risks our XX-K the available for concerning discussions

make Before introductory line, our will conference going comments. question call our Tricia Griffith, Tricia? to the CEO, first from some

Tricia Griffith

Progressive's today. morning year, you that. and of Well, back thanks, Doug. I Good natural just for Anniversaries joining wanted do time the and XXth thank first since call the investor us past, are to on look to this is

years, company-wide just commercial trying a carrier, doubled. In has third to auto to in startup largest premium a the carrier. the X last total from tenth auto the great grown carrier, written the scrappy Number and have nearly homeowners We depression find our the largest five foothold personal

average premiums run waiting who opportunities you the our Line's generally XXX% years remarkable XX auto Lines Lines, ended continue still It and policies the truly worked made enforced. a Progressive's than than be extraordinary. customers through over on years of markets, and commercial industry premiums the team, have billion a growth major trailing in been just written in Congratulations in soft achieving has an passed incredible so the we has last five all XX-year history, address the Commercial captured. and Nowhere Commercial with basis. Commercial while employees and have thank market March to of hard to shy million, significant profit hard grew XX-month all to today. over margin to milestone we're We $X just better many we've and in been which more last $X Throughout

from some increasing but cost Further even used the While range decline, traveled loss fourth-quarter in indices miles to which increase emerge XX% does or trend country as injury of baseline. vehicle the XXXX to Omicron to early bodily we've in a to XXXX. recover are wave. Personal suggest used significantly severity the were We contributed saw experienced. the X% -pandemic vehicle in pre below levels, Auto the has of vehicle still also value values leveling those above beginning Steady

eight bill earn Our in points trends of And these Auto scrutiny, expecting response an underwriting the increase the still Personal in to we expenses, been that quarter, points increases which X implemented limits plan to in have rate we to marketing addition is to reduce first XXXX. options. in,

have of our to ensure more reach still to we adequacy. rate all progress, making work states we're While do

the Auto effect have Our rate Personal and growth. non-rate actions expected had on

sequential is basis, Personal positive on a PPIF growth growth PPIF While negative. still Lines year-over-year is

growth. of and likely a we we're which our track, slowdown part it are that large look New policy the increasing ahead down competitors our of a explains and declining. applications life expectancy across all is in we year-over-year, also When seems metrics rates,

forward look we optimistic. XXXX we're rest As to the of

be to and expect media, we re-engage adequacy, rate way can we the reach we growth advantages we increase we Because able marketing and marketing level and to believe the the adjust a have of write clubs. ahead and in our meets spend at local business states the taking segment way buy new engine. more goals. As hope And we to believe actions, competitors since our ensure the we economic share than fair we of to writing of right we our the are trend long-term in continue such of spend more

pressures, face we our we segmentation of as have these not macroeconomic Even slowed pursuit superiority.

-- available promising now is early over is model product more states preferred Auto especially Personal eight segments. the half in in U.S. showing Our over results, and among

X.X to product XX. in additional expanded bringing of first the further footprint homeowners’ also states quarter into the four have our total We the

new since our buffeted in disruptions of has the economy pandemic the onset business. that the normal Our has been

While XX years. Thank there you. greatest can believe are our our future I'm strategy and in questions. your the next come take, confident people successes to are many and paths, will in still our the take I

Operator

limit to please JPMorgan. To possible, question to from [Operator get one your line comes questions as of from line The questions question be Bhullar as to open. Jimmy added and is many order to Instructions] last yourself the follow-up Jimmy, one In the

Jimmy Bhullar

Hi, good morning.

some prices. to just months? and what So at expectations changes I the because Are the over of the expect in in or pricing price been robust permission next through had -- seeing all, states states to all that into hikes you your you do I are a any changes like obviously, raise getting the price California, give raised environment on of few question terms think first, of

Tricia Griffith

need. rates a the mentioned, few regulators that We we're in with still and you some one get working closely have states, challenges we including to the

to be is to start once rate, can loosen desire plan able or get that we that bill up engine have to we open our more growth underwriting options, our up to open And restrictions. to move. Our open, to be

still had feel we've big of we've and success the couple working So that about states future. we're with pretty in a a why -- that got states of some couple we optimistic

Jimmy Bhullar

results the is of and companies or is that in have 'XX, states there something had it early as XXXX difficult and strong of some of reluctance else behind? And the been California the because

Tricia Griffith

California, in back it's bit how they perspective. Specifically, a little look versus

-- that need across is for are closely showing inflationary is so real significant, we'll the trends think the very and with Californians, these open regulators. the be and data and And to the industry work trends, want we I

happen. So let's make that

Jimmy Bhullar

And all then trends the claims parts the on Okay. from just your quarter? February, in the first and Omicron think benefit at January of early saw business you wave do the in

Tricia Griffith

levels know up don't I to but little frequency still a miles bit huge add still -pandemic there anything do open you is traveled benefit. was Things want pre vehicle that. a both or on on more, and if

see miles’ of a drop to relative that March. vehicle travel we've since seen early in the quarter little fourth the did During we XXXX, period return

So modest a any all. if benefit, very at

Jimmy Bhullar

terms of you're environment, lastly, then classes this you're And investing in value? where anything changed have just that any good how seeing in or reemphasizing major you you're conversely,

Tricia Griffith

to a about line Bowers assigned John that and we guidelines want want for little income and had that and bit profitably the importantly, don't as standing and to our do certain the We possible. we're And best me John, you investing on approach adjusted a as is John's operating to investing sheet. protect let portfolio. I'll to showing investment and fast company add John, then our to balance way level or important add matter. of job that yields That anything, to a earn you want team, anything? rate is, We've most grow talk if of now. as want the most book target their risk our can

Unidentified Analyst

for we we return environment and pretty continue to on the X, Tricia. in Obviously, for total can that. dynamic portfolio, right the that out with I would Number now, long-term that the always capital, the and getting Thanks, value Yes. a is protecting only the good but opportunities add then create to search best focus would portfolio.

Doug Constantine

you. Thank

Operator

question ahead. Kligerman Andrew, from from Credit comes next please, Suisse. Our Andrew go

Andrew Kligerman

Okay. Thank morning. Good you.

on mentioned, the a restrictions in you're you could there? Regarding doing color that underwriting particular what give you little

Tricia Griffith

first I of Insurance. your enjoyed write-up all, last to And Andrew, P&C week. Welcome -- Yeah.

Andrew Kligerman

Okay.

Tricia Griffith

Yeah. different a restrictions. have of And we underwriting couple

look have questions possibly, at at look if a -- data, additional we'll So customer. gathering we more on we

pre it call we -binding verification. So

anything, to sure specifics have may Do So little -- to that. the add we like we [Indiscernible] make things you Pat? want right adjust a ask and more

Pat Callahan

got to additional we've questions characteristics do, at will some follow-up new that's we we I think underwriting have certain, accurately business exactly both reported, when customers, want renewal. is what for we the all at and be occasionally then

how restrictions from we open plan a other things. are we on and put will bill perspective Additionally,

Just our as we rate look sure want customers to make at we overall right we're profitability, inception. new at business the getting for

Andrew Kligerman

underwriting these what change last even ends of gone quarter through book -- of XX or initiatives, percent restrictions? the a the as rate up ended the your you've maybe these and with last results has up as over months And with

Tricia Griffith

inception. at the I in think more of the rate entering getting and right it's

we we've percentage they've information. customers have additional So the have had and accurate we higher once the because likely somewhere a else gotten that blocked don't of we have information,

Andrew Kligerman

see, I your on I much like, sense give book how that any of you're of us, that, Tricia? seeing That And you see. proportion on? could

Tricia Griffith

double close, comfortable with from would half more low. which double-digit Low we I digits of Probably, when say were margin. incoming is that probably underwriting

the to piece going profitable So we're coming distribution on is there is door pricing. trying what for We do be every to is a us. of that here understand or new business that in our ensure

seeking looking to more some we're tail That accurately. answering the are the than premium questions going is has a frequently to ask insurance make that customers an the questions achieve we going lead money, less frankly, are the premium customer elsewhere. a more on in where to outcome sure overall adjustment by where frequently not because questions So lot that those and we're the lower to

to obviously, that do some on affect competitors are our to So that it will competitors, employ extent we methods, focused such pushing competitors the segment. And our adversely. segment profitable. of we're ensure efforts not By that these our

Andrew Kligerman

Lines, that what can since the in growth was XX% grow Commercial their the And in double-digits. that give you you our to optimism? optimism that a Lastly, continue letter would it remarkable noted you

Tricia Griffith

for significant process a that of different Well couple reasons.

we still double-digits transportation still marketing So all a in grow and growing amount. on for-hire in business FHT us our of significantly in are carriers, did based

pandemic. being countries the since good So not the moved across

came In addition of that increase network half our renewals. from transportation to about that,

So so premium. how our significant. months We we our went compute is projected from which our partners, to we had one X mileage increased policies, we obviously that of XX-month is

and us had forth, the last see environment So reflect that so we CNCs. this was rate increase that for wasn't to We reinsure, about of inflationary half part increases increase. the

if the that been we that now, little five this, said, commercial if even the we've part the all BMTs even a the years, thinking what about about and So doing, the the great on you wrote on that last several about over down is commercial, they slowed have future. bit,

out and business BOP, are our Business we are Policy, So Owners year. There new on states our rolled are three going have grow. getting we new just to small states being XX this actually continues

we've that We power fleet the XX have of program expanded to XX. our where number units from write we

think have larger Lines because last we've to business about Horizon ultimately, growth We do that acquisition segment from excited may medium even fluctuate for in we we years macroeconomic if least, X, future. have I'm at or five opportunities maybe based now, all spent will that continue the and -- So the to down fleet. the how or slow of Commercial may one business the all in four conditions? investing of really, about Horizon and on X protectors and X do is, How we in

Andrew Kligerman

Thanks so much.

Operator

question with is line your open. Wells comes next Elyse from Fargo. Greenspan Elyse, Our

Elyse Greenspan

quantify per could the you. of increases Good you morning. premium still first that think behind about guys represents frequency I given of you And there trend and confidence percent Hi, was My thanks. majority forward the what with that severity? state's rate rate then, question, versus so both to where is statement uncertainty that with what just much loss you associated gives question, hoping make

Tricia Griffith

got could all which feel make trends competitors, probably closely. We that rates past. us, watching other the a still we're don't more some pretty trends. we we'll bit labor I -- -- important we think would but us we help are that, watching is indicators ahead I to is one, would watch days, And the important dissect wish rate. take say, those had, I in and would these positive crystal of I that ball, we

reduce bit I the could and frequently of Pat, in -- the if controller of that do about buy it we're talked do now in up return because in think trigger take, way of profit think looking of and ability underwriting were I behind that opening the market to a segment, will we're that I thinking come that growth. we what restrictions? that to about how trends we to less say, dramatically this is But environment of working what pull marketing? book some Personal -- on. with of to actions we hope because and a rate be us, and we at channel-by-channel the part really that about And in results is some so the here, we talk sit can beautiful open And states is growth, few little We we we be from each the the couldn't there is in out bites rate the each media. We down April we're John, to local when to, got my is smaller comments have apple auto the are increased. obviously on think the return states majority in will order. and rate the so the Lines in we Could we take. the very okay, we like out ahead if need literally state-by-state, And our

out things a course we to story, there's the we confident, it's that to closely. working channels the and that So X watching and because of figure in, do earn closely when we're come more we're this points XX But had XXX question, so that. actually will to and and but of a feel to complicated of shades

Elyse Greenspan

then Okay. then guys that you with products, -- there observing time products? the that my you've question, gone guys in offered you Snapshot on have on with take-up any any discounts noticed change been as your this environment, the are change And have are or guys you your and and UBI second period through has your

Tricia Griffith

in channel, big a us. challenge We saw been the initially rate has which with agency a pretty increase the take and

and So where channel, use at channel, excluding Carolina on direct about of course is right California agency North XX% XX% we now we rate in sit the the telematics. about and take can't this

So that is blended amount about take XX% rate.

and discount, to continued really price try surcharges have to continue and we And discounts the and evolves. from participation Snapshot as to -- of that sure course, so will those make we to continue We learn do and to that's we try our curve. whole we ultimately

Elyse Greenspan

the for Thanks Okay. color.

Tricia Griffith

Elyse. Thanks,

Operator

Phillips from Morgan question Michael Our next from comes Stanley.

line is Your open.

Michael Phillips

from that I one I'm sorry. continuous what for one if Does learned that you. could ratios, that, what that guess, month better if what state, for it's talk a but Can guess loss you therefore, accurate about, can guys, case. earlier -- maybe And about gross, be that and go better be lessons been the you plan since just more talk then, a for it do means you expect, we in does from gone end I you've mean it to mean? for takeaways national for about that, just what Well, -- national does pricing -- you?

Tricia Griffith

more We'd of in the or after because about more for -- that. we've pandemic, to like that driving It's behavior, next especially changed literally quarter on question Oklahoma, XX answer it's it have as in it been quarter thought one going maybe responsive -- to can to data. and out state, we both the We'll how that know days. mobile continue be that on -- continue so and that thought gone and once have a then to it down the good costs time. we was we [Indiscernible], think and will we roll successful, And have we'll have we high Oklahoma hopes we overtime

Michael Phillips

thanks. Okay,

using percent the by to with opportunity [Indiscernible] of And new their door, of call they a online take near-term I'm your can in online end cars? given competitor, then they Second, is the switching you from doing what totally from unrelated there funds and what unit’s guys. question, up are when start -- going [Indiscernible] advantage center wondering, customers come off from you actually any

Tricia Griffith

I to think percentage. I when has more much finished pretty small buy much it's but sophisticated be so technology used a a more that our larger, there. they're small It people It's gotten percentage. think the online

Michael Phillips

you, Thank Okay. Tricia.

Tricia Griffith

Phillips. Thanks,

Operator

with ahead. Ransom Gary from & please comes Gary, question Partners. next Our Dowling go

Gary Ransom

wanted but or personnel, flat wondered and it's and had Thank about commercial growth a I ask I people you the difficulty you a having Maybe there's but the the there. good staffing the if line I on if getting on claims rapidly. counts any about talk you side, as flatter And heard bit to could right are things lot to wondered in if morning. claims right first little side. and of changing you've us

Tricia Griffith

of had and with making would And game different the we and such we're said, it's the of right with industry thing what recruiting hire lot right beginning animal. turnover we Lines it advantage has is helps is over time. to of took continue the to And centralization, because you're say to growth. front rate same do at entry-level at time new of to a think a amazing, frequency enabled in we sure up, spent really pandemic the us is side the about across and And that during we've a the a great question. out I machine file That us On right jobs. as hires. this the especially year the that representative just plummeted our seeing that and the Commercial across get it when having is seeing really slowdown consolidation And that with on the

just want thing our right to we make trained on So and but do not they people, customers. of here, behalf sure that are can the are

we of for didn't pandemic, us do, the things who allowed President not for us Caesar, that staff it, when that severely Mike just our that picked company. that client up. have And I knew I to the for time one during available and and overstaffed several to for things that months. am do was that of was waiting country is claims made we decision the think our the the And was I proudest reduce we of were we couldn't this

and to we So side. CRM both office the Make hire have sure continue we're to the claims going advance virtual of need in maybe and training sometimes environment. in and in benefit right

group at have there at John also group the files in our in audit reports looks this continued that. in of results We internal we to look good seen [Indiscernible] quality the and

Gary Ransom

on I Snapshot claims using other For the you've talked well. know about Snapshot, as stuff process just times Have you -- under

Tricia Griffith

the think that we'll you help one -- and claims we'll something I we we services are you think customers have That's continuance, but as cut we our out, about you're is could in should actually process. investigation think about other I device. saying claims -- what definitely consider could where using with Snapshot the that be

Gary Ransom

now. So happening future looking thing you're a that's nothing really still at,

Tricia Griffith

We're I That's the testing would all say. time. what

Gary Ransom

Thank much. it. Got you very

Tricia Griffith

Thanks, Gary.

Operator

question Bank open. next Shanker your from Our Josh, comes America. of from Josh line is

Josh Shanker

Thank you.

to insuring the rationalization. someone's growth getting going bit months? the talk home, ones fairly retaining and their not different was property you're healthy. over marketing policy not stems new past that give in nine often a During The interested and re-pricing to they're about count in in going terribly you Progressive you Can guess little retaining and still versus I'm cars. Robinsons the hearings

Tricia Griffith

Yeah, thank are been very and said so have you, shoppers, as Sam's they Scott. so I always -- expensive. defined

more desire on to X/X XX% more and home going the -risk up know less book of in the so side, had attention our now. storm that nonvolatile to proven the retention far From rates the in true. auto clear is side. to And we that we've we've our And less been be when to get and states has it we the on our our of a versus Robinsons crank perspective, de of be is

to about of we the there This quarter Florida, takes bit over because it policies, -risk we it's try property, time policies policies are our And non-renew With reflective about to next the portfolio. year. pricing. to a and de that XX,XXX we'll start little talked continue XX-month of industry in also

do bit. I growth. we're and and lot think rates. it seen competitive right April. that ahead our But with increase to to the that of you've storms has -risk try A now, be March has trend to in in stay Could have increasing market that a de and of again still it's everyone rates to to happened because going a book continue now

Josh Shanker

do So able us, net and deceleration perspective, Should two with obviously you're each be in fairly of non-renewals, hard to property, and overall feel going through will appetites. other the Florida the for we desirous states our or for those policy you think see growth the it count to that that be things from other that growing XX neutralize numbers?

Tricia Griffith

to actions is state, so to grow property book. able Yes. with taking are non-volatile I mean, more sell our do our the agents we're to desire that so in

use believe our level auto to Again, to that'll say. I opening of it's in property we my be segmentation our our were in what segmentation So get departments industry-leading in in little addition, relative the do. hard about increased closely side comments bit a that products. competitors to deeper R&D where talked have And same together We of segmentation homes.

I that important. higher really -- think many the and a able policies we've decent have And been to have sharing. still deductibles, of we states cost amount that'll be have of in

was so this for that a as -- replace we'll to that policy -- hailstorm treated wait come and roof. your that And just maintenance not

the space, will grow I but I in how that some the And we're into to know take going other approach. a it time. of those are And so look things non-volatile future think is can't really that and we've some changed. our out

Josh Shanker

very Thanks much. Okay.

Tricia Griffith

you. Thank

Operator

Our next Peters from question comes James. with Raymond Greg

open. Your line is

Greg Peters

everyone. Good morning,

the So of piece mentioned us in eventually on answers, focus your want I'm advertising you growth. to to And that. returning

price when or spend actually be spigot back lowest a even wondering get quarter most your have year-over-year. rates the customer advertising be it advertising And are customer and you? lowest on need if way, does will brand increases turned just -- Progressive behind you down another or Your you don't the to the you to if put when in price the I'm is down the whether win

Tricia Griffith

for doesn't think ran way us when experiences years when always remember claims, for have marketplace treated do high our we have I with NPS yeah. I lowest us. people rate, would of had I especially the most. they had to we ago, that this needed Oh, have really claims and that in because had the those brand people us be win them

So has think yeah, PLE, that as do we to gone with brand. a And some makes difference lot, direct, the between that down I we think that has see and at as agency we far sense. look when and Direct

So what and and new turn I apps, we analysis really do Pat Amount is by X happen what X talked could about we'll we local plus on to if of state-by-state, plus, think X marketing sensitivity some etc.

We will only do again. that if we're to sure we're that start in the growth position

But growth. we're trump will conversations every feel So day, we and grow will to grow. profit are of not to new as are app did tell We want as in having core a We good do want but we like me is on, anxious that fast it you, our as position anyone. business pretty all negative. values, we We when happening to one turn we that these confident and can, let so. as again,

we'll look always those things and daily. and that can course, on we'll be to data based be -- with we we do we that change, to at be literally changes, nimble Of have the able

Greg Peters

I wanted My second question, pivot to you.

out rolling tell new just us differentiates what about you Can and about and were little product bit back that you a homeowners’ before? what offering from talked You the step product.

Tricia Griffith

that. I'll say let Pat

Pat Callahan

about that. Happy to talk Yeah.

both understanding we age the the roofs as roof our better of there's we're that we in the that the home from that business have coming that on of And segmentation the or of bringing just to and better asked helps side but the recognizing or to and of it's cases, the got the agents So of better roof property expansion better both, risk expand segmentation primarily. home that is losses underwrite. some that part are home the rate we've enhance and also for, most majority coverage age on of primarily of the time, product age us capturing over in damage age and the and in the the the need

Greg Peters

the mean some trying buy older your am you're there what answer, with in I how that the applying that the to for understand of is as fits to roof that depreciation out that the offering schedules And a marketplace. to that placement? just allowing follow-up roof just does a you're are competitors that -- customer

Pat Callahan

but varies challenges state about offer. depreciation depreciated a like schedule Florida, have customers, that roof Yes, the depreciation when that roof talk price what we limits so a and or damage it. see do That's ability our they're And to we one incentivized it guess, can that a roof we offer market old we accurately. market when certainly there's replaced a in effectively like for to I by to Florida not, of a it's

Greg Peters

for Thanks Okay. the answers.

Tricia Griffith

Thanks.

Operator

Our comes next question from from David ethical. Motemaden

Your open. line is

David Motemaden

are auto Hey, course you and still a 'XX, Tricia, X in the are of looking will half believe points stabilize thinking of going that? you that's you to had behind about how we obviously that are behind rate said loss major of do have rate auto 'XX you. on auto think think that's eventually you over how ratio? second thanks. earn of We Good start increases increases morning. to and event the to the guess, And rate turn major you the when should or the growth. I that rest just that about the improved, saying

Tricia Griffith

That's follow-up and data.

So we mainly, big rate states get couple loss Florida. watched pretty into as ratio, rates have to a the earn we able in quickly we and were Texas and where the of on

And so two states us. for those are big

to we're all the property down right so to that grow. inflationary we'll those those when factors continued collision into again, the damage watching sure see time make to macroeconomic And going to are states and it's closely watch pressures think we the increase. And specifically with

the will and amount make sure the labor right start growth. like that's the we items I to rates rates think have of those watch to of close

David Motemaden

some the Thanks. maybe, the just thinking just outlook from that outlooks, as guys car thinking labor are you're -- quarter course as And on on could about forward I the is and those throughout that point, how trends Got factors observing -- also as prices we in then, your the mentioned down it. of used move that items maybe of guess one last then about, here? first break you severity and well you you

Tricia Griffith

Yes.

we couple we've data down, So flattened is Index even points a the of there higher pretty even than Manheim it's though XX% January XXXX. launched or gone closely, still watched and maybe say of that it's

So function prices. change been and in a a car step used hasn't drop there

and know of percentage addition, over at are also the unemployment that happening tough the there's of of of accidents body Labor is rate so because is damage. closely industry several industry. points. up being car tax We parts seeing rental In watching higher capacity, in hire we a to We're XX%. more shop and only environment it the extensions then, are how couple know days. a we're that of because up watching just And speed, in

those go In that's watch good X% pretty about I to in continue so it's PD, and we last some And range. and they're all to in We'll feel think on the play that. pretty both when collision side. stable severity the quarters, X% the on and things BI why higher. been four

that but that's, of non-medical at trends that, But damages least, a seen that a we've drivers severity PD. of bit the those four we'll collision the But which go some rate, and of little turning the are general course. increase. into damages, rep big -- have over We increase we the stabilized quarters, feel in watch extreme are

David Motemaden

and feel into you're is are like that to that view it. the that the severity ready most follow-up, of rates, And say more you making to when potentially move what behind you're your Got you you, growth, statement? them

Tricia Griffith

to and what's the be we're think severity mark make when we're just looking and -- from perspective, The to -- of in year can inflationary happening we can pricing calendar so to severity see view? I will we our margins an what the target we lifetime believe that, be it'll will start profit if just terms as grow.

Unidentified Analyst

there before you we on of such to projections [Indiscernible] or geography the done see geographies these and take loss important That right, still lot that. [Indiscernible]. are the It's a view not have managers enough you need, rates where come now are bit new rate they results are with up on obviously we But states future while the decisions we're up responsible product a some trends. so lot large there recognize of are And view to are want are who made we that team's side. where to either and of we also we are are the rates and tentative -- understanding confident adjusting mentioned geographies in the fairly in can they that the open business some rate we a the products, They open gotten said, their going of if have earlier as locally, have for taken such we are up. normally, pricing

loosen So product day-to-day geography that underwriting. it the again, one team call, I we a to really best is basis. again, a back managers considering of locally [Indiscernible] when decision But are on strengths the on to on, and have is the when everything turn advertising level of making who think day-to-day

state making level going come are at be to time. we So in each down right the it's state aggregate ones we're not the the at confident we decisions, and can level. right going to It's something predict

David Motemaden

your much so Thanks for time. Understood.

Tricia Griffith

David. you, Thank

Operator

Yaron go comes with Please question from ahead. Jefferies. next Our Kinar

Yaron Kinar

European issues. you. cars, manufacturers good like curious Excuse the priced you that Thank And used morning. the and maybe of some parts or the Are was of just impact Europe with I some or supply had Eastern chain Russia. cars, Seems me. in like? OEMs in have seeing U.S. situation

Tricia Griffith

and kits really. that Russia some has supply prices, Ukraine, of increased bottlenecks still of used with in Not that but that same and the issues cars car chain so to see this. We new prior especially what's the course there, in happening was before happened sort supply there's with and

Yaron Kinar

Right.

competitive that is of is in on comments talk the depend to Okay. ability to going Florida? Can outside you how competitive you the one made maybe think your homeowners Southeastern grow I the around environment And environment. the of about see then homeowners you

Tricia Griffith

fires, because That's you also if there's in of issues state-by-state got west as well etc. terms

events. not Home we the the to So where against have Progressive as side and segmentation partners. side look proclivity Understand then we've or so unaffiliated the And got have as Direct think I more deeply. agency look we our opportunity just major around. players. day, some both on weather where of sell the also competition bigger at at But a agency we a direct we well home Progressive many have side, captives to It's we will look each have

always we're country, some at we look we as the those But get Robinsons, our get and believe to have so states, industry -- competitive. get not against to the well. in non-weather try we to And states. We very across advantage they're on paper to our look trying we're more when results the non-volatile

Unidentified Analyst

in offices. great to have in quite company states are and that distribution broad those network as a Progressive use they their we committed non-volatile And

So non-volatile of states ensure those Robinsons. lot our independent across agents a

so going south solutions for industry. it to now challenging regulators know very solutions have specifically, and on the a really value I that Florida is time because been must about of depreciating you from and in are we full It of [Indiscernible] in access after states disruptive replacement consumers find you liability Pat it. very viable with your a question, in Florida. to Florida. and that important that the was the some offer a in going and Florida, a we're So those in has it's are of but lot working right roof spend more -- the environments, we're excluded And roof there those talking market. business, legislators to

find code. very are it's So to to roofs, have not older difficult homes solutions that that for up

non-volatile So states. to, the in we growing obviously, hope

industry. amenable the for hope again, that solutions also consumers to states those of cap We current some both in are, and

Yaron Kinar

you. Thank

Operator

the The Tracy is line from next Barclays. line open. vendor from question Tracy of your is AG

Tracy Benguigui

morning. Good

in you exception into your about. first [Indiscernible] you're say others are have behind so the rate I'm victory favorable with that of you wondering if when talking seeing account taken seasonality Before are quarter, the increases the majority declaring And if [Indiscernible] like you?

Tricia Griffith

I that. out have believe that very that that we grow have well-positioned. data have our we is I'm look last past. rate think we rate the we're of We competitors our closely. making lot we the year sure we're we're enough not believe to from street. that has saying the of at. stable front we're that Tracy. we has as winning, What is seasonality in saying been with got it trends A in relatively been the We're on can And saying that on rate of all with lots Again, media. on from we and and local in the caveats turn that we caveats watching

we of just and two we're fact the some get front we're a a rate-making color really maybe So to despite but lot right wanted or in of quarter out helpful, that conversation a and able that can we we're machine still on in now our that proud give tentative, but have different to headwinds. of

Tracy Benguigui

or you I'm are wondering, I states, your simply limit you allow hear some think just reaching so? also take, you theory, do rate take more you'd to choose regulators your maximum in but just to optimism, will you in could

Tricia Griffith

pressures. -- to are since time rate And feel inflationary that's we industry year. get starting But the clear. right We profit And it more, terms has the because constituents this It to get increased has larger and at their rate our look where worked. what very will if needs data that think of even to good rates states. we target And data, seeing perspective many regulators some of we're last for needed thinking we in our rate, all actuarial how in margin. share states in we always other the we're at times, And several trends. look the we been get now about need already I we've rates to of have

optimistic the just regulators in were states get couple it. They we then, of to great you're not I'm available across thing conversations, great not rate. able have know their they where many give insurance see a can data. the constituents So key to key going relationships is do states with the to because board they for ultimately, and and have because have going it, understand to the and you get worst you're the rate They

So there rates in be it's will bigger going to the be, over time, future.

So how it that's works. I think

optimistic. And so very I am

Tracy Benguigui

but are inadequacies higher to you taking success in make to Okay. And any up cross of to states decisions have dates states you rates like make I like California? you up states extent, know where for local any

Tricia Griffith

No.

have to our subsidizing goal our of ratio in not have of XX combined We specific and one common goal. very every aggregate a products to

Tracy Benguigui

sorry, I'm of quick, Is that is If uses for business Okay. your you just mentioned take-up telematics? not in really new what only? in-force XX% percentage telematics.

Tricia Griffith

in -- new. I'm is new. sorry, in-force. agency, new we to [Indiscernible] sorry? It's XX% direct, yeah. going XX% XX% report The no Are new in I'm

Tracy Benguigui

is than which new larger in-force, your lot for be a it would business. your What Sorry.

Tricia Griffith

share think that. I we we saying don't are

Tracy Benguigui

that. share don't you Oh,

my for Okay. Thank taking questions. you

Tricia Griffith

Thanks. Tracy.

Operator

Our your Meredith from is next with open. UBS. line question is Brian Brian,

Brian Meredith

one first John, Thanks. Yes. you. for

now knew portfolio give your income as of Where roles perhaps your right do curious. yield general of could your us you on versus you kind portfolio much maybe every Just stand a yields of fixed today sense of money just book XX how and months.

Unidentified Analyst

that one. take I'll Thanks.

So --

Brian Meredith

Okay.

Unidentified Analyst

terms about every portfolio think X%. where -- anywhere $X would there of think if XX off. with you that at but of X.X% like size, inclusive give in I $X Generally, I that don't were, it too to our was if and on a billion of from about would think out investments I March, swaths, you XXXX, specific, side rolling taking to of either treasuries, in broad about portfolio months, duration a three-year billion look and

Brian Meredith

then, California care question, you Tricia, And think helpful. or us speculate second will start give some you to really -- actually just rate when sense us granting would Great, curious, tell I'm of increases?

Tricia Griffith

can answer if -- we're Brian, I the -- we're I is that Well, knew working -- to all say

Brian Meredith

[Indiscernible]

Tricia Griffith

there, we'd with to doing be California affordable, working for want insurance available just have so. open able do able all grow love we what and we'll -- do we're to to the to to populous because to that we up, Yeah, can and regulators and we can most we be state, and want

Brian Meredith

taking Great. time pretty those right get none I'm to wait -- some to -- -- here I you increases? you're pretty that results there improve mean, now? willing to of actions there but just is curious, Are is significant amount rate underrating

Tricia Griffith

non-rate we We're continue mutual do taking to so. to because with to figure the rate. work best actions out just And the will and to obviously significant the thing very do get inability the for of our constituents we need regulators to Yeah.

Brian Meredith

pricing curious. PLE to pretty exactly Is Just exchange that environment? just I'm what one. quick of mix continue that reflects. more or that just us one ask drop is what business significantly. reflective PLE in remind I maybe Can the Great.

Tricia Griffith

look out in difference about elastic. and Texas And little bit talked drop direct the reflect obviously we pretty does agency a big PLEs, environment. pricing early. we those don't really being And they bit would in pricing agency it's which tell got you Florida, the when little It at more because I and states two a dramatically, as with

we noticed retention, change things is differently some right. that figure coverages that Snapshot have things trying reduce our can their to and their prices. holy And grail think or consumers to like do as or are they but also also priced I out, we to be

to in So teams. CRM I know to our our organization we try customer we continue what preservation grow call

for them we are call the because obviously right with in coverage So it pay to Can the still on plans, it increases. get with and rate on covered, reflective stay? sure if they prices. are in on challenged bill but bill to majority order to work of they them is But they to is their make them

Unidentified Analyst

do in study made see that segments. different to reiterate use of bear to earlier consumer Just parts a couple response We to question.

So elastic on and or Sanmen elastic. the far non-standard more end, more more less preferred

So obviously through. for change. the plays And that itself

as noted we Additionally, see Tricia by earlier, channel. do a difference

other to benefits. shop. brand some there's markets But So think light access have our of we agents some that's because also and proactively

see channel. we the do direct do in channel degradation less we agency So the in than

Brian Meredith

helpful. you. Thank Very

Tricia Griffith

[Indiscernible] Thanks,

Operator

Scott Our next from ahead question. question Goldman Alex from go please is Sachs. Alex, your with

Alex Scott

Thanks.

is one growth. I had Personal on the First NPW Auto just

isn't level or if that be as I there's or considering. through to that the nuances to you're growth makeshift much something affecting growth if flowing I the just rate should high think in showing the try I'm rate. any I that as PIF NPW of expected. interested would've when any triangulate there's we getting

Tricia Griffith

I our in growth business new the Probably reflective point that's to premium average in. think And growth of growth. increases written overall with coming pricing

Unidentified Analyst

have renewal, down other taken we've more of ratio, programs, A look change, of we premium the not Personal change policies. written in will the combined comments yet you'll some in rate if premium so up has Auto the see significantly points to so affect couple report the is you affected earnings of at did average We more. still that. We on earn the in, our so written mention seven new the renewal versus road. But rate

through base revisions So those rate predominantly we to renewal take flow all are revisions, our will directly customers. that as

at side, On taking when won't we so for that we are average new perhaps time business shop, the customers new written any up. see people benefit all premium rates

So flows the renewal rate through new we're premiums. average there think also we're mix and of the that are how the some the which It's timing by book. the of is rate definitely seen is we've historically, reflected. think than actually being earning taking into terms issues also higher accepted little We consumers at there, conditions. market cognizant but in a total We of

So resulting outcomes we expecting. the are we're we're taking actions in think absolutely the

Alex Scott

on And second and been I competition. had it, just you. Got thank

in ad with we've of You some some think and talked you you've advantages competition to seeing more the through as interested of companies. how was the a the of the your you near-term? there? the is been where to execute thinking the you sophistication I anything degree you've even call able pandemic, just pricing wake-up Are which to bit in a have more if gone seen brick-and-mortar same the distribution I'm past, spend, just about appears able that type Are and it strategy beyond to at moment

Tricia Griffith

pillars to the in that back we time you our have we seen we I there. talk the and sure direct make our I all would all strength time about Yeah. invest strategic four

competitive most So and advantage. people our the first one culture our is important are our

a important So even, our important. I virtually team. am every if pandemic, new And winning really it's good that culture do to for employees, have made being to virtual out and and more connecting people to continue like are feel we are sure during the about really we about hire but now in-person, on and it's class. the people

The our lot talked brands. second about is a we've

where creative this invest competitive to last prices, really early to want for talking of been in we get we're brands have course, hour, So And we're we've great the competitive. of month and or some then to end continue June. going to out that coming our really about

But sure care that also that is and of deeply getting about that rates. we of the part making segmentation our right continuation expenses. Some superior it's

create for to our going expense brought this to the continue to up, broad want I we when, have customers continue So that's to goals coverage, is how John then the shop. think we're where, key. and so and And future. be lastly, And

long that for been regardless channel agency So want have a of time, choice they Progressive, the their entered of we've channel, appreciate fact floor in people that if going we've We we iPad, we're buy change, the be Explorer. through on a HomeQuote appreciate they both. consumers closed agent, direct as in or to the to the if through independent commercial especially on an phone, their invested and side there X-XXX more business both

both strategic So how four to all worked competitive. feel hand pillars great really and we glove in I future. we stay about position about those channels make sure really that and our think the

Alex Scott

Okay thank you.

Tricia Griffith

Thank you.

Operator

comes Shields from Meyer from Our next question KBW.

Your open. line is

to -- Great. growth much. profit the Is to Thanks earlier return proceeding, in are will now, question, about the that a basis Tricia, your having words, so that the returns monthly [Indiscernible] that in with controller. the that market adequately, is if constrain talked you earned in full conversations priced you in growth? are rate all but other year? or increases In a

Tricia Griffith

look like when our national sure ability we But reach to for time are brand the the rates making off we'll there, at local in pivotal target so each that growth, to when Remember, you us start, grow. look should not our ramp to advertising. isn't we'll advertising, have adequate time haven't or of shut margins. that up when some of still state Yeah, profit we we timing yeah, start right at particular it's some so out our

prior there's ratio impediment growth? of pressure some combined But because rate. to That's monthly an not lower Okay.

Tricia Griffith

you. understand don't I

Unidentified Analyst

calendar they're writing that taken But business to customers consideration the for well, for growing of if go through There as for they've their think we No, we're big they are is the do but combined better, rates obviously calendar writing sure lifetime as objective managing as new so they over adequate, function they or an where a combined if to think year, the ratio sure, year the customers growth. happy air adequately is be are priced 'XX new they managers. for will they have towards lifetime, likely product will ratio generally, more. up today

I apologize well. expressing question Thanks. Perfect. for Okay. not the

price Second customer heightened on question, sensitivity, car overall outside in of various is is insurance elevated? in place across when segments that

Tricia Griffith

was What's people is they're which to in at. a on say means with are they the better staying data, we get likely only of hard the That's can't the renewal, more rate. thing they even they look their can shopping, that on when decreases Yeah. in the what if Not that. John terms of or percentages. sure really side, But our too, percentage think renewals and we do of we certain we're improving increases, buckets a I seeing saying or histogram know And it's to elasticity tells which elasticity, are if in all on but going economics country. us find

Q -Meyer Shields

much. so Looking Thanks perfect.

Tricia Griffith

Meyer. you, Thank

Operator

Our Ryan Tunis ahead. next from question go Research. is from Autonomous please Ryan,

Ryan Tunis

Good thanks. I a Hey, on morning. constraints. question within Progressive's operating just had

I'm to you kind getting closer focused guess at is that. of I historically, So doing last The -- before easy a curious just and XX grow growth been XX. we're less or majority and the even there. to as like focused on usually because you the gotten got that time, XX, on but you're it's close has second did year, been vast half the growth, plan, XX, re-underwriting, all whenever always you better can. of the you've as But fast of

is say -- risk So a years? running group have the having you've in again, -- appetite been and after a later same XX when gone did quarter safe later somewhere through basis in auto, personal the XX you to above last that first XX that on it you and

Tricia Griffith

And and some. if looking Yeah. still we're I future think we're XX% reporting at operating policy I be that our at mean, our will we rates hasn't do and don't looking standard changed. perspective remember and for trends, XX.X%, over

and need ahead sure good those year, the business at the years. really data to a report, both them, I our in calendar well a worked time talked 'XX went I the plans on moment of And rate constraints, books time XXXX think I the that I'd operating them time and as for lifetime us. first that is And in we're a we put 'XX, think over fact, public. was well worked in annual we 'XX you make mean, we about call looking in have it's when call just for So our

have side think If expense new are our 'XX there, tell trend, pricing, built at it's it's winning it model. our long-term a that great keep 'XX so to to keep And aggregate we around we doesn't disciplined I philosophy. carrier. disciplined And nowhere of business our our when that can will other us Governor, with up in course wouldn't it helps were is the a mean continue where number come on aggregate, the in And direct to and I Personal XXXX, nice business started you helps I look areas that in has and you obviously XX. there's so us three, around Auto us we the been at it our the

Ryan Tunis

was just on retention. follow-up My clear. That's

rate showing somewhat be better was has just to what implemented that quarter. -- was like that maybe just actually Yes, mean, some to been on you're the actually of maybe I the mainly much expected. second of continued up a first And retention might in in you've hold a wondering have how how I lot customers headed of trying So but think has tailwind that you and first-quarter, would you implemented than much quarter. seeing clarity the I I'm

Tricia Griffith

or if XX. depends trailing it you're think on looking trailing I the at Well, three

three responsive I our as to trailing think more increases. rate

some I'd doing. took a of competition states relative the our degradation seeing what quickly. retention with say could lot again, And to increases results little so a before, that When to saw like of we where is our of bit still is we more in started early

increased ahead stable, to stay shop want getting and they're you're again, is can we've of competitors, for of with the you're and up. and been renewal we business us if get new then be consumers our while. rates it's going with a that's go stopping Because rate. your And what and So tried going to to which we why they talking are more much course, now about if

we've the acquire. to much that over But of our a in power taken keep So work we've especially we that because retention, close so closely done to we've been do and customers proud on many, keep watch eye our today really we'll everything many the years.

Ryan Tunis

Thank you.

Tricia Griffith

Thank you.

Doug Constantine

We've and our scheduled scripts. time, for concludes Emily, closing I back hand so exhausted that call our you the event. the over will to

Operator

the website Information available year. Event. Relations Investor concludes of Progressive the Investor be of next First on That event replay for the Corporation's will section Progressive's Quarter actual of

disconnect. may You now

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