AES - Earnings call transcript Q3 2024

Due to licensing restrictions, you must log in to view earnings call transcripts.

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for attending today's AES Corporation Third Quarter 2024 Financial Review Call. My name is Megan, and I'll be your moderator for today. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations at AES Corporation. begin may you Susan,

Susan Pasley Harcourt

Good review welcome call. operator. quarter our XXXX financial morning, you, to and third Thank

our we forward-looking Our information with that our the Today, measures are release, which between may GAAP available be Reconciliations press presentation to on website and cause future are statements, at most differ many There can these SEC. are statements. found related results financial will factors making materially in our with recent non-GAAP the financial website XX-K from disclosed and presentation. be on XX-Q along filed and aes.com.

morning Gluski, management Stephen our and Joining are me Executive Financial senior Chief other President team. Officer; this our Officer; Chief Andres our of and members Coughlin,

With over I that, turn the will call to Andres.

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

joining call. financial for quarter Good Thank our morning, review you XXXX third everyone.

pleased utility sales our line a we robust discuss quarter this today, year. with We our our generally with our and growth U.S. our results, towards on businesses performance our results, which third And in asset renewables our were quarter are target. I with Beginning and Slide third X at expectations. are seeing will progress

be towards margins onetime infrastructure in primarily end weather At same year, tax was EBITDA meet the impact the We're expect in attributes with $X.X EPS low the EBITDA time, about adjusted the on attributes was half EPS. of expectation and top Adjusted the lower extreme adjusted adjusted to $XXX objectives, adjusted with the and now track for was EBITDA Colombia to of and including financial EBITDA our million be the SBU. for XXXX energy guidance million, we of our tax $X.XX. to ranges our to due the in range adjusted

through are performance our We provide our detail outlook. more expected CFO, on will and financial rate XXXX. Steve our growth Coughlin, reaffirming

PPAs we contracts. pleased and report or includes both since X.X August, have new renewable of I'm long-term U.S. our This center utilities. at load last in growth also very gigawatts that signed our new awarded data call to been

QX Moving customers. to new call, our our corporate Renewables have we business XX% PPAs our with X.X more year-to-date of backlog, total gigawatts, on added X. is which our of bringing to financial review Since to X.X than Slide gigawatts

As a profitable signing of beginning the year, PPAs we targets of materially XX a on XXXX well also return track objective. meet setting project on year, XX since And gigawatts increased currently last to we are awarded this and set to last Since that reminder, goal, target PPAs. our signed new the to most XXXX. with X.X from or focused of gigawatts we're prioritizing we

X% August, gigawatts construction nearly of Moving of new the to represents our have to quarter an Slide X.X projects, X complete total year. we construction gigawatts, and call second which additional in to expect X.X we Since year-to-date our gigawatts progress. bringing X.X this completed of

in On-time competitive we for panels execution management supply U.S., online for is have year this we the XXX% solar advantages, and we XX% believe those next in on the one coming country of In our best our projects site have and industry. of chain the year.

either policy. tariff our changes potential we XXXX, protection providing in solar have XXX% manufactured, contracted against panels of domestically be in or For to country

and cells. also battery have first securing been manufactured in a We domestically mover modules

We expect half first our project XXXX. in first come of battery the content online energy with domestic storage to

domestic for chain Additionally, we manufacturing. suppliers our have established wind a with through strategic robust supply

all and Regarding for transformers, supply equipment, such long the backlog through secured we XXXX. as high-voltage time have lead our breakers, of

to Slide X. Turning

on time due These track and that customized provider work their energy mining leading projects of a to center serve solutions with on providing to customers outside record as particularly needs our the positioned renewable well and to very in budget. AES specific companies, companies data large U.S. U.S. best and are We to delivering the of our want

the With a congressional regardless of resilience of outcomes days the have our confidence elections. of the I away, in the business plan, U.S. and elections presidential only few great

While is likely, scenario, well the in do uniquely extreme of we're we not even believe credit to production credit tax the positioned due an tax the following. elimination investment or

our First, centers regardless can that equivalent the for than France. end the customers the of had the an be decade, hours through XXX decade. of that electricity federal require to which is by McKinsey a more U.S. could annual policies, over only corporate the next power new need massive consumption met terawatt renewables additional in data of estimates alone

our market these with With we customers. high-return PPAs renewables core will dynamics, sign continue to

U.S. of our to any resilient domestically a should components by manufactured a supply have changes chain, Second, with be project tariff policy, we majority there large XXXX.

of of strategy from the time harboring policy. signing equipment PPA protection our our safe clear procuring changes the potential at in provides Finally,

turning Slide Now to X.

Indiana customers, last U.S. of our service XX which based necessary both of on utilities, AES now while AES lowest the some and embarked our have program growth we rates history Over on utilities, customers. ambitious improve U.S. most investment our double-digit in months, XXXX the states. the reliability X and through maintaining for of the quality for projected are fastest-growing base of in rate investments the will with Ohio

new of As of Ohio, providing of we recovery these for timely the recall, majority quarter investments. regulatory the year, in structure you for received may commission for last third a approval AES

for approval rate Indiana, last first commission at X our in received earlier case year, new AES we years. rates Similarly,

benefits of We year-over-year so in the year, utilities are a this $X.X we representing invested both investment starting to of far see have increase XX%. billion from the

onetime benefit recognized EBITDA Excluding XXXX, XX%. in the settlement is year-to-date up

areas in projections. from existing rate data X. to base growth our investment our Slide Turning We're additional also beyond seeing service above and opportunities center

proximity are technology land networks ample to Our to fiber presence have the attractive of large that and companies, advantages water. natural such and many utilities as

sites positioned capitalizing on We have with that companies. proactively our support technology worked identify to data new centers, deep to well relationships are

several parties. expect agreements accelerating AES support for we of Ohio, From Indiana, demand We with generation to negotiations have use announced deals months, perspective, recently center RFP next we been results gigawatts announce new call. the inform a AES top specific launched in gigawatts, an the our data on now growth. on coming an At we to have help of active regulatory to already will we've data as last X the X.X IRP At RFP load of signed megawatts, for this center X.X we gigawatts our to of XXX growth incremental including new year. submission in

of and a XX% call agreements increase we growth. quarter fourth these we what comprehensive plan. our can base in investment a current provides to Today, end decade indicate investment our over through rate update we've how that On nearly in our will provide February, impact plan date long-term just on the signed the

investments builds our X. the XX% to strong our announced longtime with Slide we CDPQ and funding AES ownership CDPQ September, This allow sell increasing partner with upon CDPQ, Ohio common for to and Ohio, Turning to as In Indiana. in down U.S. plan support us economic our of utilities. transaction across relationship This for AES development. a at reliability will partnership AES growth partner to support

have may our now closed report in pleased seen Brazil. you equity release, of in to are we the AES that interest our as Finally, sale we have

of renewable the of the creating largest have gigawatt hydro X.X to our of X.X beyond operating proud by gigawatts people Brazil businesses one are portfolio adding in country. the done the in and We work wind expand solar,

sale for transactions, than more With proceeds $X.X billion these XXXX. asset through X closed X/X have of or target we agreements now our signed

Brazilian and simplified and rate have our We risks. portfolio further interest also eliminated weather, currency

With that, over Coughlin. our Steve would like to turn now call I to CFO, the

Stephen Coughlin

capital Thank results our quarter you, allocation. XXXX Andres, and guidance Today, and and discuss I parent morning, will everyone. good our third

billion Adjusted XX. Slide EBITDA versus $X to Turning attributes the with in approximately was $X.X year a billion ago. third quarter tax

$XXX year-over-year, was Although by in of renewables realized we million, tax America. additional mostly million value driven down South conditions drought breaking EBITDA $XX

infrastructure largely expected due SBU cover I'll more million $XXX was energy slide. down to on items, detail our addition, which a later in In

year. units, Slide a versus to I'll business quarter attributes, strategic next well offset EPS adjusted were investments to XX. $X.XX adjusted the of tax as slides. due those last the higher performance or EBITDA interest our Turning tax SBUs, with partially the Drivers similar of as on by was to cover growth higher but X for parent Adjusted rate. $X.XX

offset with U.S., projects primarily from was QX Beginning Renewables X.X since gigawatts on attributes SBU growth driven tax South the America, in added at year, our This declines experienced significant businesses. and record-breaking new but XX. our we've Higher Nino with EBITDA where by a significant XXXX, we've in was Brazil El Slide drought Colombia and driven conditions. by unprecedented partially by weather volatility

margins. country, of for In took may historic a we nearly X yielding hydrology the third extremely gigawatt facility our event entire prices than were across extreme at by significant Also, high, you Colombia the the in Chivor facility our rest followed drought XXXX months, better quarter recall as an very the positive X June, that while spot had of was country. Chivor out flooding

As $XXX million third Colombia last low drought and million over year-to-date. versus quarter year-to-date last year down extremely record renewables and is have this Brazil, wind versus a also and year. the result, In resource impacted negatively in $XX QX the year of

Pacific the due expect significantly has are La return will our the to in region we year a grow Nina renewables been While expected in America, difficult XXXX events hydrology. much the to better conditions to segment in South Emerging XXXX.

Renewable drive by the in brought nearly will in a of new end of we a XXXX. year, of U.S., X gigawatts EBITDA While segment increase the will in which online our total this have capacity, large

adjusted as Lower adjusted PTC last by at base AES by by Utilities onetime the mostly implemented power was expense the in quarter rates of well U.S. recovery at as rate the new offset on from part SBU costs new XX. Now prior driven utilities settlement IV in of settlement, purchase of our Adjusting turning higher year. This Slide prior third included as in grew million $XX the over to interest was Indiana year, May. for year ESP borrowings. as the as well Ohio, returns XX% new in PTC investment

and million at infrastructure EBITDA expected Run guidance. of driven Southland were was sell-downs, of several $XXX at energy all nearly impact of SBU which Warrior businesses year-over-year primarily our baked declines Lower legacy QX our our the into by

the recognized accelerated ending of monetization At year the year. in revenues Warrior Run, quarter we last second the and this beginning PPA of from

energy Southland prior new Our assets benefited extension structure. margins in an XXXX from no under the opportunity legacy longer in the which year, earned monetization are

to extended much asset our well in due weather In known drivers, margins Mexico. at milder plants as Southland addition TEP and as thermal to we combined-cycle our outages experienced these TEG at U.S. lower new

at margin Technologies increases at continued and reflects Finally, high SBU our Fluence. higher growth Energy EBITDA New

our to expectations Slide turning XX. Now on

projects. EBITDA the success higher be part in driven We top to to the our half and to adjusted expect continue securing value had $X.XX by of EPS new guidance guidance and are XXXX attributes billion $X $X.X ranges, in adjusted both reaffirming on billion to with of of tax $X.XX our tax we've

team in capture million renewables this our growth which year, to expects over needs. value Our reduces $XXX capital upside tax

EBITDA revenues expect be from renewable result although a renewables will year. from lower favorable commissionings quarter timing fourth attributes earned on the the tax we quarter as fourth of the the in balanced more throughout of PPAs, in our

we in as Run our PPA year be prior We monetization the returns program. QX of AES U.S. also as well from sales, by continue impact in expect growth asset as from to offset Brazil. realize incremental Warrior the our will further utilities This from negative including impact investment the

be growth tax Drivers benefiting expense rate. interest from adjusted lower of EPS similar but will along capital, higher adjusted with a from

guidance around result year-to-date. spread certainty than construction more year, a to more As we've evenly XX% EPS achieved our financial throughout renewables objectives. the XXXX our of providing our greater of adjusted efforts

XX. Slide to Turning

billion We $X.X EBITDA adjusted are also $X.X range to guidance of reaffirming our billion.

in South to with legacy our year have growth these our towards and this were range. us the for and at on assets chose objectives, our the weather spark compressed an to option declining sell the impacted spreads allows end occurred that businesses, by market that end and choose drivers large given XXXX therefore to year. California primarily pleased in our year I'm combined resulting at lower a of cycle our margins we execution gas impacted year. spreads results, option plants. in expect contains for execute now this The to later to in the the guidance Milder energy While lower several spark PPA previously We

impacted at flood-related the further have versus and quarter. In the negatively Mexico, our been and second combination outage impacted drought Colombia, results the third the outages, unplanned of in guidance. resolved, which have year-long Chivor QX now record us In our

our versus are Finally, solar warranty inverter were our plan. by several being availability at the failures inverters under remediated impacted of manufacturers. sites These and

Despite utilities growth of the onetime confluence remains these and renewables in impacts, very negative U.S. outperformed. our have strong, U.S.

and renewables momentum businesses utilities substantially this both at to EBITDA and expect continue increase We in our XXXX.

Now XX. Slide to allocation capital our XXXX plan parent on

$X.X flow, lower to total proceeds Sale $X.X through Sources we including of be due reflect million that XXXX expected our proceeds approximately $X.X in free $XXX than issued hybrid billion and will parent are debt from sales. of we million cash, billion of May XXXX. of $XXX cash timing, billion well but asset of in target discretionary ahead long-term slightly

the you can planned On of see right-hand use side, our capital.

return approximately the previously dividend year, reflecting million X% shareholders will increase. this We $XXX to announced

plan billion $X.X to $X.X in to growth. also invest billion new We

In we've the summary, are for to a positioned continued finish to year-to-date well execute strong in and XXXX.

the path line have largely at renewables half our thus and $X.XX range. complete. with landing With on overachieved earnings upper plan guidance of year-to-date, targets, commissioning adjusted substantial our in achieving greater sight and Our EPS our a our toward least give clear is far us EPS growth to we of of funding cash

look Utility segments to infrastructure. Renewables I XXXX strong continued of detail providing to in quarter call. ahead additional our decarbonization see XXXX, in and execution beyond strategy we As on fourth look we around and our our growth energy forward and

With I'll turn over call to the back Andres. that,

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

Thank you, Steve.

Q&A, like summarize would from to I the Before today's the call up call. opening highlights for

businesses. XXXX. XXXX, to including PPAs and gigawatts priorities, and we new our or on renewables on year-to-date growth XXXX well utility robust our XX in through goal achieving of award are at XXXX strategic to execute our XX X.X continue our We signed towards gigawatts of way in U.S. well With

while X.X gigawatts our we agreements so in more data have have to At far results. operating embarked tax year, and financial coming the added EPS new benefits in seeing U.S. projects gigawatts investment signing most on utilities, history, our load Regarding ambition of we're and portfolio in growth, adjusted attributes our we of direct months. construction the this for their center expect our adjusted the EBITDA we program, program with X.X and

feel XXXX well executing also about weather-related long-term good sale remainder specific despite and asset the We're our on of program. our onetime transformation year. outlook, We this and

that in positioned seeing better business Finally, confidently corporate us the technology the is fundamentals customers upcoming with one say and I Energy demand U.S. elections. strong great can the no our outcomes AES. regardless resilience we're plan, than of from confidence give large I market our of believe the customers of

Operator, please open for line up questions. the

Operator

Campanella go will to the question with of first Our line Nick Barclays. Instructions] [Operator

Nicholas Campanella

to supply this to seem so I wanted with ask you through you cetera. panels, et -- X.X just to XXXX about So well ask year. wanted I the But chain, construct comments positioned continue for gigs

Day XXXX. of at outlined Analyst kind gig XX You this target into the previous of

into -- closer So of and see still you seems in will And be I will pretty we're getting target step is be towards check because to progressing it that feel how a 'XX now. it good here? there like up up 'XX just attainable? kind that

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

supply chain I Yes. Thanks for about our construction program. Nick. question, feel the strong management mean very we and

PPAs X years. over abandon are large any We hasn't only last renewables the which really large to developer, had the X,

this said, So equipment all the need we've we we year. have what

in what XX% for next month or next year need we In already should XXX%. country. of have we have the so, We

the feel concentrate good intend we like we you So very panels. inverters also turbines, and items have solid about We time, very you are to transformers, lead big batteries, which there. chain. long supply feel solar have wind But on and

we because with the have the move contractors to had one we've workforce that from EPC they so can next. addition, strategic really problems the either no project with In relationships crews

your in geared you very about construction know, feel And XXXX, we our So question, up in answering good XXX%. program. we as

able XXXX the been and XXXX. that really expect and throughout to smooth we've now year, So in commissioning our we

Nicholas Campanella

tax still off, notable much And how think contributions? do you you lower segment to some kind rolling on just from kind you attribute that's of I Brazil renewable renewables XXXX. you grow basis, that Can about into growth expect normal you had, little versus just quantify year-over-year? the then When a again, sense obviously, new us on returned consider putting here. really like EBITDA one-timers for I of things right. to an And is when 'XX All the confidence

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

good very Yes. question. Look, that's a

But for XXXX guidance giving have this is at reversion. right, aren't you what We mean time. you're really

to really driven before, droughts normal and had territories, XXXX La our of floods coming we've is to some were of extreme we of a return that by back El the extreme sort largely expect more never year. sort of You year service in combination Nino, into coming a Nina, normal.

guidance correctly and our Brazil. But point you also our rates growth of maintaining without we're that all long-term out

sectors other up. the that means that picking so are And

So that to growth in U.S. to can by U.S. year the of Brazil and rates, the normal more year and extent utilities. the a say be renewables increasing absorbed we I we've sale next especially expect

Stephen Coughlin

it's Nick, and new Steve. this of will We've portfolio. add the of just I X Yes. add. added across gigawatts total would year a renewables

coming is more significantly the So some higher. to America, normalization, there's going like in in be La addition -- Nina base South installed to

So significantly. that's segment will part of it. grow Renewables

And we also have the growth. we have the utilities outside renewables,

growth So rates full and new continued Indiana in rate in base of a Ohio. year with

Operator

comes David with Our Arcaro next question line from Stanley. the of Morgan

David Arcaro

I elaborate in had credits that you you could was you received. on wondering outperformance the if tax

referenced tax outperformance for You $XXX that the here? Wondering stemmed an is million opportunity And more higher-than-expected there any from? from credits. what

Stephen Coughlin

been very competency core this key a would for a Definitely us Dave, year. I say, and it's good differentiator. very is, Look, Steve. a

renewables reduces We what we because our returns. value It that have think and increases finance We're minimize always team requirements also to I the capital there that opportunity tax and tax the strongest does team looking ensure is. do?

qualify for qualify. for to a So that brownfield we had are number applied us that were things the that or qualify These good to a energy including agricultural a chemicals to them materials, community. sites allowed we've it's formerly, sites ensure places had, had say, different there's at -- that done where of year. bonuses, allows We've --

a done to we've and adders of lot we can. where So digging justify research

So the are created we're equal. tax doing other thing credits not is all

tend to get -- because we working get and less we to So of expect of us, people people track our record, discount with very focused and us. come a on

transfers tend through credit transfers, monetizing had would to little I lot the and a do So tax value. recognized partnerships we've say, than of success equity the through get a earlier

as part it So that's well. of

this see going other portfolio. But I So upside future. course, in the things do there's as on the in of potential

a on portfolio. to holistic take in 'XX, have you give guys update And We we entire when guidance the look. we'll

David Arcaro

Good helpful. the That's how it. just on Got upwards? have earlier those momentum been incremental you on And have away Has guess, Okay. been see that. in year, continued been wondering been renewable the the if could then touch trending? need signing, at with since chipping financing to you've just projects levels what return I raising return expectations your that there returns

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

Well, we're our see customers. we seeing to continue market values a what good projects, and to we returns bring that from our

newer So that range. that of to range within end we the have projects upper answer that our see to been yes, is -- that towards continue the

So very we've in we confident that feel provided. the numbers

Operator

next with ISI. Our from Evercore Chopra comes Durgesh the of question line

Durgesh Chopra

off online, the start go come Just online just should portfolio uptick projects year, getting XXXX, start from not with we going number -- in X.X and to an with that is expect gigawatts But to construction coming wanted that's actual off that into actual to of in we online? terms the want as the guidance. the this

Stephen Coughlin

Yes.

this So is Steve.

guidance February. give we'll So in that

here. be Durgesh. inflection number beyond would will there's largest the I of XXXX, moving pieces So say a

on our renewables look the in schedules what expect and largest I so will think 'XX. I COD come be up like, increases But will based 'XX And somewhat.

Durgesh Chopra

Got it.

Okay. That's project That's very timing. just helpful.

X other have questions. I Okay.

been with some activist there hydrogen with involvement the have company. changes may on First, the the APD, with there, project

invested online? plan there, with there? do might you share capital what update date? do anything can would you those Just is have How be And coming to that Just can much gigawatts what helpful. you we your us

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

developed Sure. large attractive that is appreciate have know, of the renewable gigawatts No, which, I market shortage advanced there's you question. a a as of projects. X.X we Look, very a renewables there

asset of when there. how have have very see much V case, to attractive other goes to this and in a any XX But comes we So out hydrogen. things, we

forward with in as and early the partners Asian of part buyers see those of up outside do states, I stepping likely Regarding projects it. going the

we money we've invested So of done. a don't have than lot money other that development

is development this done the some However, that attractive I it's of pipeline think because particularly best that a asset. probably we've

Durgesh Chopra

-- Is That's Andres. very you helpful. this the Got included the the in XX that right? XX? backlog it, X.X now. believe number I gig part of And is is show, that that's The that

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

at any the No, only signed which so until but taken include We've we no. we -- is our PA. wouldn't Nothing backlog include it a very awarded in backlog, final stage. have out our that's We of project signed never really. or

Durgesh Chopra

Understood.

year, Okay. just change on methodology question, sorry methodology Very clear. Moody's long. conversations Moody's And for conversations this Moody's. on you've with then the on a just on earlier had in one rating the Steve, basis update dragging stand the you final at basis, us where agency? and had -- for we've potentially credit Maybe latest the

Stephen Coughlin

Sure, Durgesh.

I the So they before constructive. that hate be an will publish they our continuing initial that back. the see a few characterize do has I upgrade the improved quality very conversation continues. to year-end. update indeed since us years gave credit dialogue I to expect

counter-parties transforming into dollar, with reality What's creditworthy really U.S. here and been no assets high that rotating the exiting exposure. long capital fuel portfolio, exiting markets, duration, the carbon-intensive is we've

very a profile. have we very, So attractive

Project I a Fitch, S&P AES is structures which opposed they only, our amortizing basis, on is at there. finance debt parent think what amortizes an project when put life at consolidated they're finance take the not how looks working it so those. recourse there's through levered the of as contract, we tail to over at on account the looking they're since level exposed of the and and Moody's projects,

debt project actually It's at level. structure. investment-grade-rated So it's a low-risk the

attractive an the well structure, define it within their hasn't within they way fit just it's the thresholds. So

yet at -- amount growth, yielding. carry They're at material have high that. a given -- looking fairly looking they're we our how So that's construction and not also of we debt,

they're And well is debt for ways is looking well. as nonrecourse adjustments that's so certain. course, at And they're there pending looking of those recognize that lines to as that flow in along this cash that

good feel before where expect I I So do about their here there'll end year. And are. sharing of conversations. the really we I about the view feel good the be

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

would I of the think credit that the if improve we continue of our big picture, you to overall, add profile. sort

a Brazil, part foreign rate substantial which exited we exposures learned exposure our was So and of of interest weather-related big certainly amount a FX, to our assume. we

as you're So sell plants with risk coal we PPAs shut no for investment-grade coal the risk plants, long-term PPAs down changing with fuel off-takers X-year in or really with fuel XX-year U.S.

So I today feel ago, very confident agency company. gave overall company, are that any year where better or they looking versus the credit substantially at a is rating us ratings where X we a

Operator

Our from with the next of Julien question Dumoulin-Smith Jefferies. comes line

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

to since the we're just to more the get year? see sales asset of you here? specifically, methodology in actually, do to is here? the sale the then as your I about getting talking on off for Well, nuance, reason just or but front to kind focused second needing on flux, credit any piece target asset do you here, anticipate in make you true the And since that we upsize were this, on sheet where the kick any asset balance metrics Moody's the on the of up accelerate sale think observations

Stephen Coughlin

Yes. No, certainly.

quite metrics been the things parent strong actually, remain level. So are doing I mean, credit accretive. we've the And credit at

is producing amount The sale very accretive. some now of cash. Renewable EBITDA just while in closing segment, things the a So we've business on little significant highly it levered, was actually latest Brazil. actually generating very, done credit is very the of and the so here was Brazil,

next Similarly, that's at with the sell-down debt the tranche be when that $XXX going year, holdco due we're paying over closes Ohio down million. to a

we a have. result start of able as otherwise expect as do, at transaction that sooner year it and see fact, also a we credit dividends be than that So the to would accretive will Ohio in paying least

of So have. trajectory. the year, above well at the XX% be are the we good would level and which that expect threshold I of the really parent feel between this we about metrics XX%, XX% will end

And yes, we've Julien, sale universe targeted fact, the of so think program, in lot I had no, The asset a X.X. is, bigger. success,

see see that into asset future. sale lot the we'll credit the runway makes has and So a sense metric been having the supported here us what But fact, actually, going program. in by I of

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

of of exceeded sort very would selling doing And also always not our I sale good always composition the assets targets. to let's record frankly, target. have a certain, we've think that just been also or to say, and asset we've like we And megawatt I'd our at say I shareholders maximizing good asset quite value is for generation value. doing say, a what sales hit program

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

No. guys. Fair enough,

saw Palco quickly Let NiSource to real to here, with robust peers pivot north me We very right? your update. a the NIPSCO. gave

potentially for talking know greater articulated Palco given, the and gigawatts X duration potentially the the of trajectory guys are or guys a, number meaningfully gigawatts meaningfully extend You Analyst had base about of X team's already activity. I Day at at is a but baseline the out higher procurement you last year, b, rate here. I suspect that

that what If you bit your on how little portion own you your here? and it impacts expectations a to speak can what total financials can

Stephen Coughlin

Okay.

this case resolved was early So settled year approved rate early. and look, the mean early I

over annual So significant had million increase we $XX a increase.

have rates And so We'll driving a of year-over-year. a full next is that year the significant year. new

And to we've I a then plan already utility. resource generation across new signed. we're and as in call, addition to It year. that's the increasing Andres in load center described for total, integrated comments, into go in of we're filed be will lot his next RFP the once talking what data said in gigawatts utilities, we think the the of X -- last And

higher guided rate base much growth is there's to be across to than what say, a double-digit It's I would the going So we -- that. utilities.

in And we why increase. returns Julien, we're also to going of So seeing, what Ohio. investment increase, we'll sold will the increase, also rate that's 'XX, the part given base are the give but to more down going utility guidance is --

selling although XX%, down Because our investment we're in utilities increasing. fact, is in the

fund So a XX% And improve investment, anticipated get the be earlier net to credit to than improve though quality Ohio distributions in investment ago. is year even the utility, it much it utilities, program even both even higher. sell-down from a we us allowing in to we're helps at this our going is will credit, and bigger ownership

that's look would at how So I it.

And an of course, in Indiana, integrated it's utility.

have well. So we supply we generation do to not load on network, the but have as piece only the also the

see growth. we of So lot a generation

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Right.

So is clarify. allusion growth I'm to just actually, you here, base it rate if be CAGR, higher I even one could potentially made the But heading hearing. thing medium-term what can

the things fourth an providing updated quarter. I of plan. in a the be that lot different outlook on are moving here You'll there's And around that know

So as on from historically, expect forward update XQ Analyst you have guys integrated of Day? kind that done the roll here

Stephen Coughlin

Yes, absolutely. long update in term Yes, on for you -- February. will we our

Operator

the Seaport. Our next Angie question with line comes from Storozynski of

Agnieszka Storozynski

wanted So power on focus renewable I the to wisdom. just

So without cash for call EBITDA, the credits it. I would one

looking at XXXX like I flat also basically I'm to will since you these is So mean looks going be like range. be And XXX, it results. XXXX. XXX now

understand I I lower there weighed mean be just one-off that number going even are mentioned. I year's which So to that items the is EBITDA, than on this

making very in that be cash renewable I I mean growth we're in you're to be growth there that not investments, And seeing will So Steve, substantial 'XX, you EBITDA. hear 'XX, some has number. but and some that there in

look at majority the that asking infrastructure, you that's about distributions, but of I'm if shrinking. come vast because from I energy segment is parent free reason parent them cash is the Now a it actually mean flow, the

rely the order flow free soon cash to cash distributions on in So I renewables from hit expectations. to have will very

this. hoping that So [indiscernible] I'm just of

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

Yes.

apples oranges will we're Brazil. so in here. what bit little fact having grow gigawatts, -- selling saying are you that that That's of a not is First, renewable substantially have the XXXX. EBITDA and X which the And we're

So should we the from absolutely it build, think results renewable we're be. seeing our in operating where

number here, So can clarify. things of a the it will getting just that there's that it's that the you can -- I say we're is that -- we're we not results think It's moving. investments -- making. on going time from Angie, don't But

we on infrastructure, second, And have the portfolio. a then energy I balanced mean, yes,

together came events really together. that the So good come was of other. normally lot in we one offset in quarter where that event by a to And a don't have tend things particular this spot,

X also had you time very normally, more So I of in you're short gigawatt win. and conclusions you rain if sort the onetime all This of think came But period years so both. we I'll of it was we a to have Steve. have had drawing from what have of and really I of that. sort damage we time events, pass hydro, think sort longer-term did conditions,

Stephen Coughlin

say, only primarily reason degree, and of record the is Angie, material reason year-over-year only as just a drought, well. would is because because drought. the Colombia the I we're Brazil down The record of to Yes.

known are La Brazil moving changing, the conditions those portfolio. be to out is of Obviously, to Nina. So

year expect do extremely last Colombia, next So Colombia, quarter much forget, And returning to unusually we also high third we more in an had conditions year. normal don't high.

is So the significant. U.S. the more extreme. it But reality what's look growth makes is the year-over-year comparison

And so this the year renewables and even the of segment. year, higher more from overcoming into than next Brazil loss

renewables growth material very the will be So year. this

but were you guidance at year U.S. guidance, XXXX to rate, -- up XX% So reaffirming growth we for line is on taking picking substantially straight by not that's to with largely XX% off. we're and that of all get and the driven through that this which are next if we're point this growth, into track the

added of I since a of the said, gigawatts across last total we year. across of renewables have year the QX X As

as move our the We coal on it we execute also exit. renewable will where ultimately belongs into Chile segment

with renewable will from grow cash accordingly the will So well, rate. EBITDA as growth the this that be on and segment track

Agnieszka Storozynski

Okay.

be 'XX out growth supposed have results, to benefits, could to latter, for the of versus EBITDA yet was you trajectory and just your like you me you And which during even counted big year-over-year see Day, that half we end let the some changes 'XX now back Day. Analyst onetime you the the were 'XX results, showing not the push So point had low renewables that at Chile on Analyst your second additive meaning 'XX. the clearly on below that came expectations, that

will and that 'XX, EBITDA, renewables in some growth benefit mean, giving not on could on I have 'XX on So is but again, which again, I the expectations portfolio, big mean half now. second which when you the I there below renewables U.S. in guidance 'XX came of you in you positives you expected had hear you were the

that the is have same in future I should why years? So to not going conviction true

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

to going events. has mass reaching confident I weather growth we're can mean to on the we with these have some feel certainly, we Well, critical do hit that we it long-range talked onetime things. of about. And

to we what the portfolio be PPAs But the as is are signing? new thing forward, important the I think make actually online? from the you we apples-and-apples will it value projects And is comparisons easier returns are move the same have seeing you as you're What of year. bringing

Stephen Coughlin

Yes.

year, did would in year, our I having the up is December. thing late end very other we fact, of commissionings say, in to more referring The Angie, last in most

a this than So year. little expected later

that changed substantially trend. have We

why the much $XXX And so we've were really tax already. of recognized commissionings more already That's the throughout million spread year. attributes renewable

think and another seeing we're more that year reason better was that's program lower. the become has throughout I that XX So and that, spread a result, mature that

Agnieszka Storozynski

one just question. other And

flow are on So the the like I'm expecting for distributions year. you about free XXX, and billion looking forget. subsidiary $X.X $X.X at are XXX, your from billion It about seems cash here the you I guidance at in to for parent

this is meaning So the that on XX% meaning fourth catch-up big that I distributions, distributions? quarter be basically am will the of apples-to-apples,

Stephen Coughlin

trend. normal Yes, but that's a

been So that's that debt cases, I -- already seasonality say, service in windows dividends. for long cash the to our sitting we're of on relative And would type based most a pay we've the that allowed to is time. It's in having time also there.

year, periodic matter timing once cases. the into we this point at on to some So released visibility just twice of clear a remaining they It's a year in dividend. have as the a get when

confident very, in distribution I'm very the level. So

Operator

of next Research. the Wolfe Sullivan Our comes from question line Michael with

Michael Sullivan

bunch got of on kind questions last that passed guess. of the know commentary, I through line I Yes, a or there

keep of Just exactly. it you within talking of get that about When EBITDA plan? your But this you X% 'XX. 'XX. like to simple, inside in means to have X% know you make obviously don't that CAGR significant do We off growth what

Stephen Coughlin

Yes.

that give executing Brazil The on the exit the Warrior update February. an we'll transformation the been exit, shutdown, in the and Run things again, away. goes So had year. we'll early Vietnam years so next We and as have like we have

early on of through more So an as there's overall, point but that I getting inflection weighs year, years, said, the trajectory, the beyond the next XXXX. Period.

-- the The will that energy year. what's that the So we've to back renewables of been than has utilities loaded. term, but grow but more next to in is grow significantly, it significantly shrinking headwind we're is the year. offsetting that closer near little will catching sale, up significantly been infrastructure happening more And a renewables expecting, growth next a level return Brazil the obviously, then in more front-end of

how it's I that's and rate the overall, transformation transformation So as of shrinking up we influenced the well growth, on the execute would feel growth but by the about We the shows in the as characterize how it. energy good infrastructure.

how I would characterize So that's it.

in have we'll energy so about fast discuss And transformation more give infrastructure at continue But And really in choices the then again, February. February. around good utilities. and the look renewables feel and the the will I to how we that

Michael Sullivan

resource ones And Steve. had additions. your X helpful, very I just then on That's Okay.

have see be to the in new first, The handle And RFP? Or do do until look doing how gas a much the that is you just not looking utility, that terms good IRP? at on of you in could you at in gas? the

you then wind I look peers, side, But been just supply I adding doesn't you it chain. like days. traditionally pretty wind in your And a terms all of seem at heavy the these solar too on though and much think times anyone's have you mentioned nonutility few when

what So front? that just you're on seeing curious

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

first Yes. On question, would for that really the be waiting your IRP.

options. are So certainly looking at all we

renewables it as some thermal, batteries of well. So likely mix of will be a and course,

in lot But pipeline quite Now considerable building projects second we were a a have the wind. of been question we that the of the we wind. in have regarding had a in wind Well, amount -- Brazil. lot of

if Texas, So as -- in project you primarily known what's sort the been wind. of that's green of giga, hydrogen the think X.X

have we'll future more the and solar in between wind So a balance years. of in U.S. a

Operator

the Citi. from with Levine comes Ryan question next Our line of

Ryan Levine

risk What Colombia is line ramp return this stage achieving historic norms? $XX to what the to million the is the this impact to the time And in for year? at

Stephen Coughlin

Yes.

will expect fact, Colombia fourth probable all in to Nina So last in quarter, forecasts of conditions point The are highly I higher Ryan. couple into months lasting well La and year. improving. next be the next year, already than over being And

So it's pretty around turning much now.

be expect higher. And quarter throughout I then higher to to year expect Colombia be overall. in next the fourth Again, this year, I

alone. the over in and million $XXX year. Colombia So has down quarter -- been It's it $XX was million year-to-date prior

and into here, it quarter is largest and it the is here to growth significantly that shows driver work next fourth the and in single up year. in overcomes hard segment. the But that Renewables offset U.S. doing overcome So the

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

X-month Yes. Yes. would we add had I a outage.

which anything hadn't So was the the the if truth very previously at outage is have prior the was drought. possible than outage we subsequently good because XX% that could results to in worst higher we water because time used we that rain, had had a recorded,

is for out being the part -- So months that's of recovery. X

Ryan Levine

Okay.

more a by you back then should normal be So to XXXX, performance?

Stephen Coughlin

'XX, No, Ryan.

So the conditions are already improving.

hydrology in to And We the normal Nina. expect year. fourth better expect year, last this be XXXX, than quarter, next higher from to we quarter La

Ryan Levine

any in outlook Or gears, the share maybe And you hedging there? the spark your for around prepared California as looking color switching to going to spreads, referenced your are could you change then impact Okay. strategy comments, Southland? forward you

Stephen Coughlin

Yes.

contract has So just -- structure capacity XX-year and a as reminder, for the a energy. Southland

So a whether our year to ourselves it a advance annually or It we very to hedge known have is at monetization it in PPA. and energy stream. decide to market or want the the uptake the we put under election

that at spreads decision, Unfortunately, during of the energy to call we on and it. 'XX changed did hedge end 'XX, executing significantly to previously the spark for we're time decide, program. the that to we us made and the So market

a And value, decision. so we relative the But downtime good put still still had to this year.

that we energy. the will so that And have we XXXX decision for also market made

We are of already put the at over excess hedged value. XX% in well values

had compressed market conditions. the California. -- lot due weather. it is penetration What hydro more battery changed. better So has market in The a has to milder we've a There's been lot

But that over back we has nonetheless, the as as is just overall, So the made the -- term not not or had been in the is decision. we we gave been 'XX market first added much when see, value is we the unfortunately. expected over as high increasing strategy has it long when put guidance, as

Ryan Levine

your that given performance travel framework color is for follow-up, So year, decided? asset's for parties and direction any then that given of -- what for any decisions next your as a 'XX there around

Stephen Coughlin

I And value. would mean I we're in is we've it since as the 'XX, Yes. already said. already on nearly XX% say, I XXX% of this put at excess hedged, hedged, decided point,

lower it value we guidance, the had taken strategy. was above but original a no-risk than it is So in the still

on will XXXX, And decision. the not in to put the we'll be have all you made And update at quarter, we value. for upon that later and then what later. time that see to market hedge based the here And that we'll we relative fourth yet have just the in

Operator

from of the Sunderland Our line is question JPMorgan. next with Richard

Richard Sunderland

know of lot you've covered I ground. a

Just one quick cleanup.

that. come Any affecting You've within around period? how curious just that sounds on more that's And that thoughts talked thinking the you've if something it there. and should new fall program the timing at various points technologies planned asset sale monetizing about to and how about investments? that energy thought about But year-end like you're

Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

When about is XXXX. new energy what And approached about talked look, the technologies, we've strategically. we you these through think

appropriate. what monetize out that So And these venture always we've capitalist we it's feel said investors. is we long-term of we will are when when assets

we the a at them time of think monetize value. we're lot adding we'll right don't So when

money And the done taking monetization some some we've already and off table.

lot So of that we lot value parts. there's successful of is program. And a add by say most it's been is the being a think long would there stay But in. we'll what I a as so very than I more value, recognized

opportunistically monetize. we'll to However, continue

our universe well we're as XXXX. But is greater. for mentioned, the ahead plan Steve certainly, And of

energy from technologies. new So it include some things would

Operator

There are waiting at additional time. this no questions

the over turn to Harcourt closing back call for I'll remarks. So Susan

Susan Pasley Harcourt

everybody thank today's us We joining for on call.

questions seeing to EEI available any have. and Conference We may you a nice forward month. look be follow-up will you day. the answer Thank team have Financial IR this the always, you, at As many of later to

Operator

for conference a I rest of participation. you today's Thank day. concludes wonderful your you have That your call. hope

The AES Corporation (AES) 1 Nov 242024 Q3 Earnings call transcript