Camden Property Trust (CPT) 1 Nov 242024 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Company Profile

Participants

Kimberly Callahan	executive
Richard Campo	executive
D. Keith Oden	executive
Alexander Jessett	executive
Eric Wolfe	analyst
Alexander Goldfarb	analyst
Austin Wurschmidt	analyst
Brad Heffern	analyst
Steve Sakwa	analyst
Richard Anderson	analyst
James Feldman	analyst
John Kim	analyst
D Keith Oden	executive
Ami Probandt	analyst
Haendel St. Juste	analyst
Julien Blouin	analyst
Michael Lewis	analyst
Adam Kramer	analyst
Wesley Golladay	analyst
Linda Yu Tsai	analyst
David Segall	analyst
Alex Kalmus	analyst

Call transcript

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Kimberly Callahan

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Joining me today are Rick Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available shortly after the call ends. And please note, this event is being recorded.

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. risks guarantees could performance differ SEC cause expectations. Further about not and involve materially and are in information that found to uncertainties actual these we statements encourage of with review and future risks from our you These filings be them. the can results to company statements statements to update obligation made represent because Any no subsequent today's forward-looking management's current supplement these assumes call on opinions, of events. and the or

release to I'll Camden's is of be reminder, Campo. As X measures, We complete to everyone's [Operator call. Investors camdenliving.com, XXXX earnings would this which this to in third Rick the section within respect available hour. Instructions] At a time our and turn quarter the over it non-GAAP will at call complete website and on call time, like includes discussed reconciliations financial our

Richard Campo

for please use to out preferred off work put Thanks, you've even our of dreams getting national vote. appropriate. of With Camden our to and When Kim. Camden today the allows come what you. get To please not you unity your The loses associates, like already together in for the candidate you X McGraw's and And you whether on theme is or the advice. When time a and have wins is Tuesday, so, coming all message along. among Tim away voters, looks just done remember on-hold election seems music if days split been an realized. dreaming

anytime year Camden playing in growth. choosing markets our ahead to Strong best years, U.S. the rest and good job growing Street absorption anticipated. Apartment always be to sales are on Housing demand a multifamily well-managed demand, fewer had of apartments October driven on been Camden. Apartment in homeownership existing are and faster migration Camden by out Before markets track the mortgage homes third earnings It from consumers as stay Year's than with markets feel strong XXXX. humble to than not and continues that is Ended buying High excluding rents rental Turnaround titled, home. Wall but has we for to taxes the in reports a is XX Let the yourself expectations renting this of homes, continue and We the quarter This affordable pride, in kind. XX changing support soon. A continue property and prices insurance Started, Journal be housing of worst for the more to article XXXX. since recent XXXX is year be rates,

New you for to results full future shout quarter fourth give up a Oden to a quarter next report year. I you strategic along to sharing these starts new forward from then look and bottoming in range XXXX This details shareholders, the through finish multifamily a one and is the big market Camden strong a and when And we great the our our and mid-XXX,XXX And apartment backdrop to 'XX XXXX 'XX with improving of our our our highs. residents they year. projects lives rents put Keith 'XX. supply of has next in knowing is goals that XX% monthly for off at we experience been know. on as markets. Trailing an for are peak, apartments time. great, has with absorption off next. our and thank to filling growth Thank and the plan rent in all-time the out year. our should teams. additional want at half meaningful starts Witten high, to starts limited teammates, are We XX-year guidance of first accelerate ready XX% concentration most XX-month while all starting and Advisers out

D. Keith Oden

Thanks, Rick.

had Our expectations, slightly in operating quarter lower-than-anticipated with same-property third revenues results with expenses. line

Our an Southern do retention was increase the quarter for quarter December in XX% remains of up purchases. third to and the Southeast for Officer. of and the growth get both new Washington, in of last XX% move-outs attributed number than number moderation kind. I'll sent the compared in XXXX from for included up for XX% and quarter less XX.X%. turnover to Alex top Number finish were would home of of one, Chief with X% turnover third X% and year over of all occupancy X.X% XX% renewals and like all low X.X%. Resident quarter out vote. encourage for to of Camden's call and same leases third turnover this average to were showed there quarter. Rental levels. always occupancy X.X%, remains blended up with up a portfolio three XXXX. the to Preliminary as net strong Net Metro, I in down average and ranging and revenue with renewal quarter X.X% Jessett, signed pricing also turn revenue out and now quarter three, Team two, lease new to humble things: Renewal November was offers 'XX. Financial same-property high Florida, Camden XX% X.X% rates D.C. Year-to-date stay third to our for compared above President growth and rate Denver of and with California, average an reflect overall the for results markets and October Houston, the the

Alexander Jessett

that does members XX% a two are press we matters, strong. Southeast including luck. Quality very communities our leading ask Recently, and safe, sure shortly release And only and of are like which reported. and attribute And to experienced property our minor Milton were serving our Camden to really Keith. that matter. we preparation great that assessment a roots analysts hurricanes, appropriately Southeast are built with issued Hurricane healthy We with and residents Knox, to Milton. after minimal trees preparation States construction our pools drains Thanks, if great have Helene over making and damage although damages quality are thoughts replied United built and are preliminary a are portfolio prayers team affected, the trimmed, one thankful our we clear, we Fort are we construction, and drained of of those

mitigation prepositioned are and to supplier our communication to and great communities vendor residents relationships is ensure storm-ready. that with Solid and staff ensure

to allowing So in demand, quality team such incredibly through storms, high-growth provide members Camden to you, the thank well to markets. for job an amazing housing doing high fare the us continue so Southeast to us enable

either construction XXXX, We million the new to our we on an In $XXX commenced Moving on we land starting remaining future worth starts million in starting late either on $XXX plan XXXX. owned we parcels XXXX, XXXX of in our which $XXX or finally, additional the million XXXX. And part second of early or under additional contract, half lead new of land development XXXX is in developments. have early a which to developments approximately development anticipate activities. parcel, and may of

financial our to results. Turning

per the share resulting reported FFO our lower $X.XX This quarter, midpoint $X.XX per core of For large expenses, from the driven by lower-than-anticipated of ahead share, we continued $X.XXX claims. prior third part in and of core operating guidance. outperformance primarily was insurance quarterly

midpoint full revenues year for the components. the our X.XX%, savings quarter to interest with from year credit were applicable Last be maintained higher fee we cash of a same-store interest taxes quarter, be line lower were business, income interest from lower from construction but midpoint year additional resulting NOI of range our franchise in in of expense, of of and same-store X.X%. income our changes balances, growth at Tennessee X.X% higher within X.X% enacted calculation. Property full to guidance we the recently third-party legislative same-store the revenue night, and third of expense from of We full expense. anticipate during ranges by fee and X.X% narrowed share cost primarily income, the lower slightly the favorability, midpoint Additionally, driven with line expense $X.XXX line growth tax X.X% the had These of range lower with combination resulting our now and items the expectations. will income will the adjusted per favorable within to X.X%. And a

XX in year line typical by basis lease trade-out revenue lower in full Our guidance blended point reduction with slightly seasonality.

fourth will debt of year. will XX be with be the the bad to negative will range to assuming in XX basis Blended full XX.X% quarter and be lease in slightly occupancy the outs are within XX.X%. line of range We points,

Our point lower-than-anticipated driven continued full guidance basis is insurance and expense XX in assumption reduction the year primarily of taxes. property by

which We our the increasing results entirely FFO $X.XX year of outperformance. third of nonproperty $X.XX, quarter to the our from component core are from full midpoint

for XXXX. We quarter fourth also provided the guidance earnings of

present the asset interest debt. on to an from $X.XXX per typical $X.XXX resulting as net income the entirely other to in a at increase is of decreased we impact net in by and within share revenue, forward not We to timing we seasonal approximate share longer driven the the in rate floating a that NOI, $X.XX interest the by resulting expect for per at $X.XX of from third-party in capitalizing $X.XXX decrease typical FFO core and seasonality approximate the combined from X.X% by And our share share declines. This share entirely occupancy, a move property an decided interest $X.XX, driven expense are range fee $X.XX $X.XXX quarter due lower time, offset in NOI offset representing by fourth sequential rates per position approximate our decline in activity. sequential $X.XX primarily income, lower be midpoint, in an higher property with management per of construction share resulting per $X.XX to of per offset no expenses interest cash and primarily increase property by development in have no longer sites on

debt As of today, of approximately XX% fixed our rate. is

facility. existing less have million and the over months outstanding our under on pipeline. XX credit than billion million than to fund of less development $X.X next left $XX Only million our $XXX maturities We $XXX

X.Xx. At remains balance time, call sheet at up this will strong incredibly the questions. net open we debt-to-EBITDA to Our with

Operator

Eric first Today's [Operator Instructions] from Citi. Wolff with comes question

Eric Wolfe

rents made up the to need development from to sense? costs to more predevelopment paused, rise projects economic? those you do If generally, And for then more think how be would current relative you much that construction four you how have to and needed projects think before rents levels about much be

Richard Campo

review we market what start, for These start. And capital has right? lots that, deployment, our the of going properties to more about. is XXXX that what our XXXX the of have do the California, so rents that Well, off me about happened -- part making to not maybe we with projects as investment One our old properties and issues come into let you moved -- clearly, sort projects, the decide when the first, and supply employ on broadly on CPA of was policies. me is on, to talked come in market And had the we because financial have we've down and this what's been rents a California, all we're of not that focused answer rents construction are going specifically, that and have and than then And and is reducing do the X that in And capital when over clearly, in costs we're there's muting what need and conservative today properties years we allocation all wrote today we it proper exposure coming we down that meet reviewed development question just and we down. X our criteria. And is the X categories. we operated is the California I'll effect about all sure and then planning and about markets, that process and there those not Keith, start think

be the that rather have the are and financial both second urban Houston long have pretty is Houston. have we have crisis. we and in Houston lower in units a X we look thing did. more exposure and would this X projects, land for, at to And that than interesting land you the talked with or just less the and than Atlanta, purchase this when what Atlanta stick then that our X and total we are we're concentration which in our the We Houston. we projects core. And high bought is issue to land The also about holding is sheet price capital for in substantially a our would balance rather Buckhead, the much on in suburban the the units high-end issue And deploy a for urban Atlanta rises mid-rise And high in Houston, the have in wanting wanting exposure on time in books we project, rises construction urban today, amazing. In XXX-plus projects the suburbs we build. really a less X

in the would we or benefit our or And properties as just like use exposure well. condo including that. a best Buckhead So want be don't actually more highest something could the hotel and which neighborhood,

So year, in think it's disciplined a we're our really years. interesting about capital capital to 'XX allocation is XXXX and and really be of a going couple allocation. We

$XXX multifamily of billion coming debt have worth due. You

have You prefs that their Banks their who down. paid have merchant are who into builders want eating profits. loans

think to and to so And portfolio capital of between than think, the -- rather we're try next a a move And that sense starting of the from we less today. suburban. there be just urban that going I market our take advantage developments couple makes And more be, more very transaction will over to balance, years. allocation robust market increase

when X%, at untrended at time we underwriting, long-term the -- to most look get up number that we do And these make anywhere when long-term much numbers. X-year four raise like growth, basis today's the you of work have look the more X.X% points it probably our growth a to of average average, to XXX Wit don't growing markets you rents growth. it's look X.X%, You 'XX. guess maybe in could of about our maybe want from so of rents have compounded X% rent to We we IRR. take in markets To mean, X% you use those at has the of look in call wide at than to associates wide market, to growth, development that. And projections plus or I at have most minus. and 'XX you there, I out if When out rates growth

second, a challenge start have that fourth, XXXX, rent theoretically, mean We markets deploy today. pro years outsized had we put existing I'll fifth growth to don't in the would have third, and could we work. The is of IRRs that we showed could the have don't if the envelope get you those hard replacement the do Alex don't development build going caveat that grow you want push to So build, on just cost business. forma in to properties mentioned, edge want this at that and that rather capital the to additional below development to doesn't going properties two we not risk. the in still in, buy we're be lease-up just in this. and big we coming. And That to we're have to pipeline

probably properties write-offs If today, developed right? XX% land we you at the parcels, did crisis value that books, we plus more cost after that never right the financial And of enough, on are today did, than at look right them. nothing write-down we the had one you booked so after write-down value all financial did we And land underwrote we a down and the the we the interestingly properties if multiple those plus the the crisis, those all XX% before. worth time because written of last -- sold the take for land to the of

So really that income end at allocation, want and to about smaller of it's from to build capital the markets the and operating up some just of day, there. capital allocate net our we

Operator

Piper is Goldfarb question next from with The Sandler. Alexander

Alexander Goldfarb

And yet banks seem come the the pressure developers back, financial years get developers to to ticking, that with has to or keeping rents the the clock pay have just need them, merchant all something number you capitalize overall for don't maybe waiting et Rick, guys and sell, developer the past to happens. back is that they cetera. of these theme, been lifelines, industry on

you like think to opportunity opportunity or provide rather more you these in that that one from huge sales more hey, confidence -- sort the that, from few a you'll opportunity next gives merchant do have these So guys? or we that's going what years, your think confidence in area general just than see forced it's we there's comments of

Richard Campo

Yes. know. don't I

going is lot serious definitely think trouble. distressed I properties we just find properties that I to think could don't more they're having huge mean it's substandard you volume. distressed mean, transactions really, don't really bought the syndicators of you're the transaction opportunity at C&D I be a to that I or find properties going there's want. transactions. are

can as You well. at go you buy discount, I those but to tour on and a of want to wouldn't a take tour want don't properties you those

it, it's builder, when And you right? sell. model, you up, build, about so think the lease builder you merchant You merchant

build a and you to You build, up lease And lease their that's profit up, cycle. sell. is and and it's you motivation sell

And pipeline side with end growth. we people XXX,XXX maybe future, think know and so that look in private below starts is see desirable on and of and and multifamily the reason into ledger day the rent above-average is 'XX that the I because going reload at the development and 'XX of their order so to in 'XX -- can --

And buy so willing to they're today.

have down. you merchant profit, head a eating haven't back the plus pref, month the when your an investors stay builders every goes you into developer gun at their and sell. you pref and their sold don't paid those profit and But So to X% have

have moved the at loan, project. came road. So are of multifamily the their rates the -- much put do to they renewed Banks future come they to rates it XXXX the the hand, cut let under theory XXXX, equity developers that and can sell. are and won't and a that was they going will and Feds maturing therefore, if on kicked and loan people if you in the had incented you down, don't as banks and into Banks the there if debt profits the a can't due maximize other you to that look lot down

coming that of that's billion $XXX the maturities and the and 'XX 'XX 'XX debt A lot worth due. is So into lenders from where of 'XX. move

that is And to just so market move. natural market the needs a

acquisition to level been Now start positive second dry rising going again. powder. a People people the have That have holding going been inflection down have XXXX. They're tons you is and the XX-year signs, starting -- to multifamily are point that our the right? in -- pretty to rents market. people but same, guess, the will were waiting at side, is derivative they on in in to and of thaw will And for their assets in and an market where the same the if sales XXXX, first markets, powder they're starting I much look still -- got there the be supply start below at come

have capital I to there's to there's that multifamily. a into deployed, of you a going So get to it's think distressed deploy won't going massive real you're and have wall scenario a is -- reason just needs

Operator

The Wurschmidt next with question comes from Capital KeyBanc Markets. Austin

Austin Wurschmidt

come a I really Houston. while haven't up for about

reducing about comment market. the revisiting this to of exposure kind just So

I a funds XX% be the could of a to taking kind how a think to market about source portfolio? look you guess of redeploy from decrease of of you investment questions? the at spoke some dispositions today it's the today. earlier around strategically revisit sense And much of just this opportunities NOI to makes when I you into

Richard Campo

Houston in We are right our wanting two Absolutely. kind us. the to of good about Houston. -- for talked and is D.C. now which exposure of and actually D.C. markets lower best And and

buy sell fall, or challenge and When painted with based On Houston. think years. a investors or the hand, Camden either Texas people been been oil and oil over on that's we've can they the prices -- other prices,

very we in clearly, markets, And sheet. levered can grow a we and so low have balance other

when exposure. that. trim period don't to X%, the a think we'll lot assets a right to the that the Houston continued in sell than So be. sell slower assets the place necessarily are our to rest is over portfolio to of portfolio. continue look grow have do or probably in certain and to to you about balance, of lower growing We'll think of time, market And from I to market X% anywhere But to we've X% we or

fourth our -- population we're balance do to things also Houston to you market want where want wait it's and be overexposed the given inventory the weighting of unit on that we is country. One be city that that and based don't market the market. in of our largest be XXX,XXX in the to an we because too markets,

to, You maybe say, bit much have smaller. a is can a which Tampa, little overexposure relative

Operator

is Capital from with question RBC next Heffern Markets. The Brad

Brad Heffern

for the more September that maintained supply? and that than to? of effective was you You Sunbelt it leases. occupancy? the an both like Or moving through falloff higher Was leasing from peers, then seems your spreads there towards there impact change but a there Was strategy a attribute signed would October, significant what leases

Alexander Jessett

towards fourth the roll you're What into quarter. third absolutely drive Yes. occupancy, more saw in impact seeing quarter a you was and the that over

that's So is. it what exactly

Operator

The Sakwa next question Evercore Steve with ISI. comes from

Steve Sakwa

wanted I currently back development. movement lease percent lease-up have a from in that are mid-October. things. to projects guess huge kind I I go couple the on that A noticed to in to of of the the seem mid-July didn't

on just cost Nashville that. start think the looks future, like could you comment it a considerably but the So to went the of realize got I the versus units. I I wondering then the bit. up going was you're quite units, for cost near projects more the went number project that And up in if

maybe return hit whether yields those just you your about creep can talk So and really cost the thresholds? still

Alexander Jessett

absolutely. Yes,

about first. talk we'll So leasing

So we've the have in we lease-up. that got developments three

lease said of look up XX to If the somewhere typical slower two multi, the XX communities, that and range are call we'd XX a you than units at units month, with generally typical a month. between along multifamily single-family all those XX we've see a somewhere to a whereas rental in it,

one leasing a XX units month. development, Durham is up our that If you look at actually

is So expect, what if bit we not line better. a little would doing in with one that even

page. about of the periodic all what analysis I leasing construction the in they're with line on we've of of as the got you in think trends. we that of the pretty really with developments much cost full all do good as a feel as overall seen, very said, basis. We up-to-date And we we When had So we Denver what's the and work, and I why that tell said that's all time, we in of think starting part pipeline 'XX in point yields will 'XX why Nashville represented at early development anticipate the the the first that of we 'XX. that the and of deal you that is anticipate and a these pricing beginning, deal this our did pipeline, we one late Rick we Nashville most on or our either expected. said deals starting, remaining in

think So all returns work still we those of us. for

Operator

The from Wedbush. Anderson with next question Rich comes

Richard Anderson

question earlier? kind to Xs. still soon, And rates X%. The number many it be one. positive, make is, little the a positive on or of there's right capital. of debt you you and is X% of front of that due and to is does years. If something So set or now in least of And that merchant lower perhaps, of time of coming in deal later? of developers are adjust rates will cap And Or markets that it the see we cap just for are the so upfront activity, active set Is there's function want little the get there's willing set mentioned lack being, to just very hit you so being to sort in which that a cap cap wave need that years moment of on a senior to if a housing, when a few you that take something opportunity a people do sort X bit front question X at but corollary your may opportunity a get yet rates. that's a the X.X%, hit, few then a example in bit the is opportunity with but deals, Rick, transaction in sense for multifamily question I use I of do a of are just for rates opportunity it's and described yet a stretched

Richard Campo

Sure.

a of the And And it when be be choice investors. sort most double deliveries. think there groups equation. whether is I reason from the to now that's of, of America rent high numbers, at industrial and the year, inflection two At of buy. about look rest terms of And definitely quarter invest two and at to you -- rest then third we're And you that our was and head spite happened of growth, relative what's only the and of supply a is in beginning that sell. a And have terms now are think their of year. Axiometrics when are what the in still multifamily gun down is are forefront of basis have lot or demand office that pivoting right? retail the -- the more wanted a a multifamily the I has look XX-year who industrial, So cities multifamily. wanted institutional and all Austin markets. And all lot on list at people the And negative want multifamily investment are properties Austin #X in the or to happened and they of you're in It's you year-to-date Nashville flat think want norms, commercial going people at supply massive out that multifamily, what -- you investor to now -- markets up, private beginning again have towards way different at take exactly of to if I estate of you are there preference. Multifamily right, the investors in distant they don't think yet in people markets, a overbuilt come our And of to for and surveys think and closer of supply we've what's fourth. retail Nashville. is so developers gotten the historical the markets is investors either to an our even point the real on

mid-Xs continue to and market. the And then a that you've too, you believe I last for were more buyers the they of that had in that second and we've when the that at, are to few that generally, the reason outsized get, than trying sort And people unlevered to sellers. interesting, positive in X.X%. which make so there's rates Xs, ultimately, XX buyers the have X the revenues, years what days, on you to over pretty looked are IRR, as is rates improve years, -- cap multiple it growth only going which that supply is buyers the a comfortable that's first underwriting. derivative X% flood in deals And or have also is And not really think, most out, be into way cap thing people continues there's the X% the is you of are Xs. The last went today, X X, get picture

Now had of the days -- changes basis been kind XX XX last the little different a tenure XX And change or calculus in a go element, You've the last the that right? has days. more up bit. points that's

with because question the negative to you're you in back get when start it to And will order the way be so is today. XX-year your leverage --

and the that we a will cap average to to And to buy that stabilize our growth want fund 'XX, to 'XX, X% we it. environment. as we we people we'll portfolio and rate that our where perspective be, we cost we operations, sort can where time in long believe will also the sell lay improve but first we'll to out how quarter zone, to spend continue back question as long-term will then we're will catch we'll call transact our and 'XX, replacement can can on try And above rental going done to that drive and will we in that properties we of that that lot treasury believe of be, below kind from rebalance the underwrite X.X% haven't XX-year yet the is, because of So in it in or want exactly. markets that rates X%. But

we'll first you to So in that get all quarter. the

Operator

The next comes from question Haendel St.

Mizuho. from Juste

Richard Campo

him. to comeback Maybe

Operator

with Jamie comes Feldman Wells question next The Fargo. from

James Feldman

Alex. for So maybe one

to getting you think reducing your top of I -- line but outlook. course nice NOI has of outlook, the several about cost think your your this and year been peers, you keep As savings

you start think most much guess uncertainty a so secondly, you revenue got conservative basis where there's to on talk about still we you enough Can benefit the juice one, you you and could two top I throughout probably the to start I the then in have year? And some a XXXX, outcome and the around year where mean, were do So get is upside? about think given line expense lot questions. conservative there where as Number savings a year similar

Alexander Jessett

Yes.

to keep X%. up going are taxes we 'XX going flat. And the in they be XX% for year, when year full spots And about We I total So the for we bright started most to didn't that expenses. basically make be Those up were I of mind were us for really clearly, us. the been the taxes. the have we think although where for was conservative, were two time, taxes and insurance at that our think thought

XX%. So surprise. And insurance obviously, XX%. on Keep year, like incredibly year like insurance this to something side, it's that pleasant was mind, And an in up going something last be then down was the

you addressing. a renewal, one, So really flat had very, #X a But factors we we of that then Number that. is very were proactive which drive have fantastic. was couple in

insurance making CapEx appropriate the of the numbers risks the putting go-forward today. we in So the and were positive to insurance sure in a some sort that of getting basis. And that causes claims R&M can minimize sure our those absolutely on root actions those from we make of and we're results our

you're is a unlikely. If budgeting property taxes getting our still long probably We're period I process. about property is generally taxes tell you year flat another early. in XXXX, of would it's time, What Over a at are little up looking X%.

the there's you that look at is, good to that compare X them today years doubt ago, Now to and down. if real news you real values are X and go you is back no values

it can we hopefully, that, can a still of of renews then insurance, that we'll fight more we juice out against squeeze beginning our May. policy best and comes the as so authorities. And taxing we And to when have little

light expenses, the expect And this claims global early because a global next claims, to of does rest may year insurance the year we see of so you'd in on we'll rest part the have market. this insurance we is what terms if And of and think of another rest see. our the our have a that's expenses, then And I I to the think of productive year side. When what X% it's about business. have

Operator

The next St. Haendel question from comes

John next with Capital BMO Mizuho. The question with Juste from Markets. Kim comes

John Kim

I'm afraid to talk.

Richard Campo

Maybe Halloween over. it's the hang

John Kim

up follow question Austin's to wanted on on I Houston. scary. Very

that's X, what's a bit also, like that? quite remind the have that look and years. or to the wins going reduce very either And presidency, I impact of market? your on that do those the a industry. mean, fruition, items been a of presentation, your decision the who's oil trend the if Houston to driving for Page accelerate Trump migration supportive seems have positive if gas come we wondering another presidency, And to if we'll you migration I'm into the it's next couple economy? you for in Houston Can us will of your Trump over chance exposure If acceleration

D Keith Oden

Yes.

is to in much have be the by on oil prices been Houston great have historically for industry. impacted and not lower been So And prices Houston, great. gas goes what very higher oil oil continues

the gas is good that Houston estate. good and ends being Houston anything for for So and ends being business for up real good up oil

Trump's prognosticating on exposure So without lower strategy election. in to outcomes predated elections, our our first of Houston

to a made X our Houston, a be you'll D.C. balance when effort market in see have exposure fairly It's the time, we're be talked any obviously We for -- that markets. And other line concentration. we double that we and for market. rebalancing we a our of part double-digit digits long are acquisition we markets. were single in with a And Metro, Obviously, been that headed having think those Houston we've So that long time. we're in there out that committed I it more to and sizable It's increased be the had XX about would some -- will markets Washington, it's progress. getting had in we'll that direction to no -- but that's that we do. still

Operator

UBS. Goldsmith The next is with from question Michael

Ami Probandt

quarter your This curious, in below about the coming that side led demand I prior that changed the on on was the supply-demand fourth Michael. into how third 'XX? anything just to blended And was in the be Ami range? expectations mid-X% for in we well is head balance really spread quarter there thinking and as we should

Alexander Jessett

made know in we of quarter decision, we don't quarter, to at and talked I Certainly, third a if it made occupancy we expense last the decision significantly Yes. push different. about rates. anything there's a the

several our must this this we the get is really occupancy We're As we teams, rates said the you times, revenue. tell to maximize trying must don't or is really you get.

we our we maximizing did feel line at within was the numbers. we're to record basis is results mind, started why see up points keep terms what fourth in down which the that's the thinking when third with clearly, and But despite fourth going and going rates the of come really quarter so guidance, our at in we do what bit, were look be And in push that good to little XX quarter, of levels initial of going quarter revenue to through rolling year in about the supply. seeing we're that revenue a expectations. When quarter, are revenue midpoint what in you occupancy, third X.X%, you you're

worked about way through that So the good we year. we've feel very this

Richard Campo

But on across at he's what XXXX. for probably across question for most case, he's XXX,XXX Witten's XXXX, that any he growth at but XXXX, modeled number XXX,XXX. if got Camden's recent in your job growth to us report, sure got at Camden's I'm Ami, not the XX,XXX. about in markets it employment wasn't numbers you in And about look in markets

going terms deliveries. most supply look lot a of like is 'XX of markets in to new across side, 'XX On the

in dynamics been fairly XXXX. supply-demand what they've So similar are to in look going XXXX to

Operator

question from next The Haendel St. is

Juste with Mizuho.

Haendel St. Juste

to guide building you're you but at for give blocks I maybe year hoping this So like think some next where on Atlanta year and next And I of some some bad debt point, estimated know I your color wanted thoughts overall perhaps earn-in L.A. can the you some ask, could not by like giving the peers thoughts on on of you some the end have of provided. specifically. maybe and to get was

Alexander Jessett

absolutely. Yes,

for if So works positive. the plan XXXX our to earn-in out for the X it, call flat be, of slightly should months next year, our

XX end anticipate back reasonable by to points the If very you bad debt basis XXXX. about that I bad think is debt, to going about think it's to of be down

much in to We've can are most because that about California, Atlanta are. we and where you back Atlanta whole, much is XX If strip working the particular, and strip we the you completely front door. We're through of and once you points. And pretty the that's basis news portfolio shut our down we L.A. the California think in good out out pretty County, work issues that's where through in are. the

currently. know actors we any not getting bad we're in So that

we're folks of end the that working pretty the from problem feel we came good by XXXX. in them and that through system, going past. And got the solved in We're so to fraud we've some get this

Richard Campo

want you take do and L.A.? to Keith, Atlanta

D Keith Oden

Yes.

component X they COVID in kind back in have we of started that that some you But -- put move L.A. it to the And it of challenge continue that becomes them started So is continue all communities there is somebody long. have the L.A. still biggest got -- and way have their get we them L.A. of to for and today. can just challenges to when some them first into when between processed time and in County, it's delinquent too the on. you

story. how from There's delinquency with processing Atlanta. In -- progress. to made see it's room regard the -- really have to long to of go. both it home Atlanta, to seen L.A. them a to Again, the do through and improvement It's someone hope continue address. we takes just same to issue we and improvement, have new we so both and in And get a

get those in be right that, L.A. we'll more back I able will cadence that Atlanta through is Alex work think for -- and to XXXX, processing normal to of evictions. a both

to with progress. I'm to processing other so mentioned, that order hopeful certainly And most markets regard delinquencies. are Alex regular back can And we of as good our make

Richard Campo

down in in I at added perspective has lost supply a a look Houston -- a XXXX, time. think when put nearly of in jobs not L.A. jobs points L.A. point just issue jobs. couple from -- XX,XXX from XX,XXX is XXX,XXX and to Francisco Houston is And problem, problem. the revenue L.A. jobs. demand a added that February San has this, since XXX,XXX Dallas you

down right? better And And low with, changing so term, they're dramatically. the so of. just growing issue revenues don't their start those So and to a And they I much hole because though to see than you bigger even that they the the supply long growing went out in bit demand is real had there. supply a markets markets, are have basically climb

Operator

Goldman The question comes next from Julien Blouin Sachs. with

Julien Blouin

And Or in into then to easier December Just wanted bit It saw ask, lease year-over-year and mid-Xs November you XXX sort give guidepost of do that new you and what a to on like can sent any you said negative for side? Like side, November on it I that X.X% out? in in do guess, you you could like basis points comps October? relative offers sort rates of think the us and does seem be renewal actually shakes seem you of expect for December. trajectory to out Where November the the December. get lower?

Alexander Jessett

Yes.

get X.X%. think to that to a you The have and difference, right? new look Once going going slight there's than right. is similar to going effectively more quarter to think at rates new again, effective if see I December, probably you that fourth be feels start to leases. X.X% So up the right. November Effective So October, to is what the that's rates difference I lease October, when down you be for look about pretty renewal you renewals is and

little changes blend bit. And a so the

little to better had than as going changes versus down so more rate of renewals you leases. And a we that think December the I and effective I bit lease just because, weighting said, for look at October if November it's get for what blended with X.X%, of just

Operator

Securities. with is Truist question from Lewis next The Michael

Michael Lewis

to value related downturns parcels land, or Rick, mentioned some you then development sell contract. written those? mentioned in have additional parcels you're recovered that in and viability writing Alex to you intend past have land that think the you eventually that I The now, some down you parcels down also back. keeping And under those do came

land you where at? buy maybe are to looking So

Richard Campo

If the work, land if land. it's development pencil today. we'll The don't great time numbers -- don't before sell a sell not sell we we -- land, to

think you about transaction have don't we to the environment, so And when sell land.

need So we don't to sell land.

to today, so to starts us and them in that new books already whether it it's don't should be we on haven't to they is they sell market analysis an and yet, deals. pressure there think builder sell. And they're we the put to you able in on until the pencil; about and then deals, And be And hold are the so just decide merchant it. time think right build a, no we'll going that new or sell our stuck at sold two, that have to we'll And is down they have capital it. again look don't deals significantly. of that's when part And

that's that's mid-rise X-story, more we projects that for create So large selling contract a walk-ups, if we probably wouldn't started see projects. we all X you urban suburban have moving. have have that more by -- now. urban identified, were have And just you're And down. to to the from why them continue construction. those will they simple probably move us a been We written That's suburban going a opportunities great bought We've a deals. could parcel a us sale today, stick are in right construction lot X-story years. The land if shovel-ready now Tampa, buy have project, we shovel-ready the probably you're that market. to definitely And we it's land under and not we have over were them transactions land direction of suburban deals and

Operator

from The is question Kramer next with Morgan Adam Stanley.

Adam Kramer

were uses anything development versus acquisitions where other of of kind I I the some kind bought if you shift. versus development rank noticed different Just allocation with possibilities was wondering wondering, capital capital, time. the here? guys you to in kind haven't rank would maybe of of obviously, you

kind categorize X? for expectations in of So acquisitions also maybe you the deal early coming maybe just quarter of of state market or kind and flow if the could the

Richard Campo

$XXX-plus start balance makes cost development, and over it year. a going how transactions Well, invest be to, of flow really already the do, when I've give reasons in flow and next will at to through. there's big in a year. But for million you'll we much going cost allows. we that's weighted Development market all capital sense, down And when just And think think allocation, our acquisitions we're capital. gets average an spread function be will to about weighted $XXX us deal we've average this that started from all acquisition how it's you about cash a the growth. perspective look gone XXXX driving million new the between what why much that of reasonable of We'll capital,

what or allocation, And at we me today great for you just so But of X%. get and we and 'XX year, one be cap $XX is of didn't development in active they in $XX, the And at point to this for guess to price, we a that's prices rate. anything. if do X% -- hard amount about where the expect find were in a far shares we X% on see capital when to 'XX of million think you can up side, stock it's more stock opportunity existing didn't -- going today's when I in the it's going acquisition pushing bought a really sure. And that's us

cap X.X%, So that. X%, that private markets believe our you are markets buy rates stock at the of we can don't if the public can more expect

Operator

from next Wess comes question The Baird. with Golladay

Wesley Golladay

to comment construction about thing? that how is versus comment broad-based? just land peak? on the pretty then increasing. go can Was And back that you Or pricing is that labor want to a market-specific I the costs

Alexander Jessett

I'm question was... first sorry, the

Richard Campo

Go ahead, Alex.

Alexander Jessett

just to the heard question. I first was make sure I trying No,

Richard Campo

going going Construction flat. up and, but they're costs they're up, not really

Alexander Jessett

up. going not they're No,

Wesley Golladay

that Gulch Looking market-specific was labor the I the And didn't the question the follow-up know went pipeline, Gulch, just if then -- the the land was, construction Baker not that or and up overall? how Baker costs at is the Camden the the and Camden construction shadow cost up. the pricing active went for peak? versus but

Alexander Jessett

Okay. absolutely.

So of through really, what had enhancements. -- We're on our out. have better pipeline, and than sites, much and cost a you're come product you look what's we with if most substantially up in laid at seeing what gone changes call we is redesigned those it, you originally we've building

know so want I really Rick, And don't what hit to prices you're one. that's you there. today, if seeing Land that

Richard Campo

merchant Yes. Land at prices peak, just they are holders. today But maybe landholders builder than more. are were XX%, like lower the XX%, probably

If you people to don't market? don't to And into sell. a why most you weak have would have sell sell,

there And major transactions a been scenario. and get wait just a So done. hasn't land of it's sit lot of kind

So or pin hard because is it XX%, a been of of what XX% kind to really land it's there lot put in, out a down hasn't transactions there.

Operator

Tsai with is question The next from Linda Jefferies.

Linda Yu Tsai

to some the avoid helping of resiliency of hurricane of the comments your to which quality versus recent the the way your also is lower. construction, product, your about there in worst operates? Is you your the age better portfolio buildings a multifamily average portfolio Given portfolio the impacts. your luck quantify surrounding any in and of regions building of The

Alexander Jessett

that about what say sites the looked I -- teams your a put they is of that right? very from same. make overflow you that will upkeep, is sure factors the think through you and talked you estate, always than it's than to look are I our -- through because, would our Milton of real that and the were It's you a trimmed, drain we -- went neighbors drive look pools you out make we don't money at it's the a the hard not very when assessing, frankly, do to go drains that. that it's the estate. and report things sure trees we'll that you just in we but lot around, lot of other we have are tell the our of quite clear. We when neighborhood, on we appropriately lot different There's other do. look to sure the that once our And at that back real quantify do to the quality And make clearly, also that after our we certainly were important that all

Richard Campo

Can we going. keep now Harvey portfolio how the here I'll and just fair... talk about you and

D Keith Oden

Harvey, flood, our that we Texas. that to lot in the And one which over and community hometown just I XXX-year are with Houston, is we're that hurricanes our only No, record But sure and we're Harris -- actually in flood within water then Alex's one people's all buildings all had taken spread County. and is -- follow a a aftermath up mean damage, Harris in and care of. comment, Dodge experience probably the flood making making the or had on of we and of X was -- County, residents estimation, most We've it by our that sure building community of of we're hurricanes, prepared. had

out by you flood are having starts measure. your -- all, it that flood and the with of sure first communities plane making that some So out of plane of buy the

of the of things make either are just damage community. asset to to when it event. mitigate that happen, deal your storm the built, any water or a and of you quality have windstorm you that that that's to the There's difference And with does have kind things built quality that you've most before we if what that storm no deal with so the time way damage. But doesn't during the rising

things through knowing Alex and event. the markets is going way then the real in in runs to that it have you great where estate that preparation to a the in we're are about with talked the event windstorm that starts own it So all

Operator

Green with is next Segall from Street. The question David

David Segall

an markets? what was curious you're thinking also urban And suburban curious just differences? suburban urban, the rent in CapEx element between is across do driven assets consistent Is of kind submarkets? performance are if by of in exceptions? your any was I difference it divide Or Is growth? I see you on and there there

Alexander Jessett

when aggregate our growth, our assets mean the what than entire And XX tell Yes. basis we better you is continues suburban outperform. across are in And suburban the urban revenue by portfolio. points I our that's doing about look I'll assets. at way, to

Richard Campo

at target that of demographic X/X to mid-XXs, you our sort When or residents the suburbs. than of target look more XX- XX% XX-year-old like of demographic demographics, live lives in

urban. over about development it where So do last better want everybody mindset you think are. to to appetite. that's urban suburbs the and tend the if the and XX years, urban was be driven And by why That's customers than institutional -- investor

put from the And the supply suburbs so changed that's them, more in but still last plenty more core downward of more which pressure created of the rents -- in supply, have than versus and there's is urban there suburban markets because some. definitely slug on urban But urban.

to continue going period outperform to a over I So think of urban suburban is long time.

Operator

comes question from Zelman & Kam last Alex Today's Associates. with

Alex Kalmus

in the and ask your about there to moving the you wanted I about turnover forward? third drivers of quarter. was talk year-over-year quickly, which some expectations X% Could down

D Keith Oden

Yes.

back the were historic We in to in have We entire to goes in for the home straight had turnover purchases are for us. of and somewhere to cycle. on year, one X% move-outs XX%, the biggest is which where So between normally purchase the been averaged rate changes homes. to the move-outs XX% depending range you

home extended the have So market who purchased that difference conditions of a a That a time a housing historically an are residents of period doing not so because to the makes in X% X% maker. are differential would rate over difference. is huge in X%

the that change home market that's short-term couple we've really Rick because, there's on that, as change continue been So that expect going we or years, solution will into coming and results and certainly last seen really the that's retention, dynamic. XXXX of single-family in no for to that's said, and

Operator

session. I question-and-answer like to turn our call for over concludes back would Rick the remarks. Campo any This to closing

Richard Campo

I in being we care. in a thank and and the weeks. you. Well, call will today, couple Las appreciate NAREIT take on your see Vegas Thanks here you in of

Operator

Thank you concluded. The your now for participation. conference has

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