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Heightened Competition Increases Uncertainty of Illumina's Growth Prospects
Oxford Nanopore
[] On February 17, 2012, Oxford Nanopore unveiled high performance electronic
sequencing devices GridION and MinION
[] MinION System, a disposable DNA sequencing device the size of a USB memory
stick, is expected to price at less than $900 per unit and is capable of
sequencing DNA directly from blood with throughput of 10's of Gb per 24 hours
[] Analysts believe Oxford Nanopore's new devices could have a disruptive
effect on the DNA sequencing market and may dampen future growth potential for
Illumina
"For both LIFE and ILMN this will lead to questions on the future growth
potential (especially in 2013 and beyond) for their sequencing franchises and
we are seeing that in the pressure that both stocks are under today. While the
Roche takeout attempt has provided some support for ILMN shares, much of the
multiple expansion in LIFE shares in 2012 has been driven by excitement for
their PGM/Ion Proton sequencing technology. Today's presentation from ONT could
dampen much of that enthusiasm for LIFE."
- Credit Suisse, February 17, 2012
"Oxford Nanopore Exceeds Expectations. In what has been an otherwise quiet
AGBT, privately held Oxford Nanopore presented additional details on the
company's sequencing pipeline. While it is not a surprise that the company is
planning to launch a sequencer in 2H2012, we believe newly revealed plans for a
"thumb-drive" like sequencer, the initial pricing plans, and initial specs
exceeded expectations. While we will present more details in our wrap up note,
some highlights include up to 40K bp reads, an error rate of only 4%, and
pricing that is well below the competition (including an option for virtually
no capital cost)."
- Cowen, February 17, 2012
"The data was well above expectations in almost every way: throughput, read
length, ease of use, level of sample prep, accuracy, run time and costs...
Although we need to see how the technology behaves in the hands of scientists,
if it works as promised and ONT can execute on its commercialization plan, then
this could have a disruptive effect on the DNA sequencing market and is a
negative for sequencing companies like LIFE, ILMN and PACB, as well as array
providers like AFFX."
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch, February 17, 2012
Life Technologies
[] On January 10, 2012, Life Technologies announced it had begun taking orders
for its new $149,000 benchtop Ion Proton Sequencer that is designed to sequence
the entire human genome in a day for $1,000
[] Analysts believe Ion Proton will make Life Technologies newly competitive in
the high-end sequencing market (currently dominated by Illumina) and also may
improve Life Technologies' offerings to small research labs and clinical
settings
"Today, Life Technologies announced the release of a new DNA sequencer, the Ion
Proton. Priced at $149k, this is a natural product line extension over the PGM
(priced at $49,000) and shipments will begin in mid-2012, with early access
customers receiving the system in early 2Q12. The first chip (Proton 1 -- for
exome sequencing, $699) will be available in mid-2012 and the second (Proton II
-- for whole human genome sequencing, $1,000) will be available about 6 months
later (YE2012)." "The introduction of the Ion Proton will crowd the high-end of
the DNA sequencing market with its unique capabilities -- namely speed. We also
note the quality of early access customers referenced in the press release
(Nusbaum at Broad, Gibbs at Baylor, Lifton at Yale), all of whom are leading
minds in the field and whose opinions will carry weight among customers. We
therefore view this news as a negative for competing high-end platforms
(Illumina HiSeq, Life Technologies SOLiD, Pacific Biosciences RS) given the
constrained funding environment."
- Goldman Sachs, January 10, 2012
"Ion Proton specs imply a game changer. In addition to per genome and system
cost, the Ion Proton is purported to bring industry leading speed without the
need for an outsized IT investment. Even without details on accuracy, systems
specs imply serious competition for other NGS providers." "Based on the
technology underpinning the Ion Torrent, the Ion Proton will be able to
sequence a genome in one day for $1,000. Life will strategically target
Illumina's core HiSeq markets: genomic centers, mid size labs, cores and
centralized testing labs." - Oppenheimer, January 10, 2012
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