“Recent Developments
Key Economic Figures
Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased in real terms by 0.4% in each of the first and the second quarter of 2004, compared with the respective previous quarter. The economic recovery that started in mid-2003 was mainly driven by a strong and dynamic external demand. Temporarily, the recovery lost momentum in the third quarter of 2004, in which GDP almost stagnated, increasing by 0.1% in real terms. The inflation rate (defined as year-to-year change in the consumer price index) was 1.8% in November 2004. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate according to the national definition used by the Federal Employment Agency was 10.8% in November 2004, compared with 10.6% in the third quarter of 2004. In October 2004, Germany had a current account surplus of €6.9 billion (preliminary figures), compared with a surplus of €6.5 billion in October 2003. At October 31, 2004, the accumulated current account surplus amounted to €62.6 billion compared with €33.9 billion at October 31, 2003.
(Source: http://www.destatis.de/presse/deutsch/pm2004/p4960121.htm; http://www.destatis.de/presse/deutsch/pm2004/p5270051.htm, Deutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report October 2004, p.90; http://www.bundesbank.de/stat/download/saisonbwirt/i428.pdf; http://www.bundesbank.de/stat/download/aussenwirtschaft/S201ATB30607.PDF)
Germany’s Budget Deficit and the Excessive Deficit Procedure
On July 13, 2004, the European Court of Justice (the “Court”) annulled a resolution taken by the Ecofin Council (the “Council”) in November 2003, in which the Council did not follow the European Commission’s (the “Commission”) recommendation to proceed with the excessive deficit procedure under the Stability and Growth Pact (the “Pact”) and the Maastricht Treaty against Germany. The Commission had challenged this resolution in January 2004 on the grounds that it allegedly violated the Pact. The Court stated in its decision that the Council’s resolution violated the Commission’s right to make recommendations relating to the excessive deficit procedure and clarified that the Council and the Commission were required to cooperate with respect to decisions regarding the excessive deficit procedure. However, the Court also noted that the Council enjoyed a certain amount of discretion in applying the rules of the Pact. In particular, the Court stated that the Council was not obliged to adopt the recommendations of the Commission.
(Source: http://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Aktuelles/Pressemitteilungen-.395.25502/Pressemitteilung/Nr.-91/2004-Salomonische-Entsc...htm; http://www.bundesregierung.de/Nachrichten-,417.684049/artikel/European-Court-ruling-strength.htm)
On October 26, 2004, the Commission published its Economic Forecasts Autumn 2004 for the European Union and its Member States, in which it projects for Germany a general government deficit of 3.9% of GDP for 2004, 3.4% for 2005 and 2.9% for 2006. In addition, general government gross debt is expected to continue to rise until 2006, staying considerably above the reference value of 60% of GDP set by the Maastricht Treaty.
(Source: http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2004/ee504en.pdf, pp. 47-48)
On December 1, 2004, the Federal Cabinet of Ministers approved the Federal Ministry of Finance’s draft stability program, which was submitted to the Council of the European Union and the Commission in accordance with the Pact. According to the Federal Ministry of Finance, the German economy is recovering and the Federal Ministry of Finance is expecting economic growth of 1.5% to 2% in real terms in 2005. Despite the positive trend in the overall economic development, there was a lower increase in tax revenues in 2004 than expected and as a consequence the general budget deficit for 2004 will amount to approximately 3¾% of the GDP, which is above the 3% threshold provided for by the Pact. Additional factors included