17
WuXi: Excessive Valuation on Aggressive Assumptions
„ Proposed WX acquisition price is excessive at 16x 2010 EBITDA — nearly 56x “cash” earnings(1) — and
relative to CRL’s high single-digit EBITDA multiple valuation
§ Compounded by issuing stock well below intrinsic value(2) and when preclinical earnings down 50%
§ WX CEO sold stock more than 50% below CRL offer price; offer price is minimal premium to post-IPO
private equity investor initial cost, suggesting future standalone business prospects are very
challenging
„ Despite raising 2010 guidance, WX projections are aggressive, requiring reversal of negative trends and
robust results from unproven businesses
§ Assume reacceleration in revenue growth (after deceleration) and margin improvement (gross margin
declining annually since 2003 with management guiding a further decline for 2010) despite labor cost
inflation in China pressuring margins
§ “To reach expectations will require sustainable Lab services growth and successful execution in two
relatively early stage businesses (tox and manufacturing) while driving margin expansion in the face of
pricing pressure.”(3)
§ “WX's new guidance is still well below the forecasts given…This makes the 6/1 proxy forecasts
aggressive.”(4)
„ WX’s primary competitive advantages of scale and cost and are not sustainable, putting projections at risk
§ Chinese competitors reaching scale (#2 competitor employing almost half the chemists as WX)
impacting WX margins
§ India offers a promising new geography given lower labor costs and highly skilled workforce
(1) See JANA 13D, June 16, 2010 for “cash” earnings calculation.
(2) “[A] split of CRL could unlock shareholder value that is equivalent to $47 per share”; “CRL: Time to unlock value; we see $6/share from recap, $11/share from an RMS/PCS split”;
Stephen Unger, William Hite; Lazard Capital Markets, Inc., June 17, 2010.
(3) “Merger assumptions leave little room for error”; Eric Lo, Eric H. Chang; Bank of America Merrill Lynch, June 2, 2010.
(4) “Pre-announcement Adds Arrow to CRL Quiver”; David Windley, Timothy C. Evans, Andrew Hilgenbrink; Jefferies & Company Inc., July, 15 2010.
Even assuming strategic benefits from the WuXi deal, excessive price destroys shareholder value.