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Exhibit 99.1
Assured Guaranty Corp. ("AGC") Financial Supplement
Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2009
Table of Contents | Page | |
---|---|---|
Selected Financial Highlights | 1 | |
Consolidated Balance Sheets | 2 | |
Capital and Claims Paying Resources | 3 | |
Consolidated Income Statements | 4 | |
Detailed Income Statements (Non-GAAP) | 5 | |
New Business Production | 6 | |
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer | 7 | |
Financial Guaranty Profile | 8-10 | |
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile | 11-13 | |
U.S. RMBS Profile | 14-15 | |
U.S. Direct CMBS Profile | 16 | |
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile | 17 | |
Consumer Receivables Profile | 18 | |
Credit Derivative Exposure Profile | 19 | |
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps | 20 | |
50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures | 21 | |
50 Largest U.S Structured Finance Exposures | 22 | |
10 Largest Healthcare and Non-U.S. Exposures | 23 | |
10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures | 24 | |
Below Investment Grade Exposures | 25-26 | |
Surveillance Categories | 27 | |
Loss and LAE Reserves | 28 | |
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses | 29 | |
Investment Portfolio | 30 | |
Summary Financial and Statistical Data | 31 | |
Glossary | 32 | |
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 33 |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty" or the "Company") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2009, Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2009 and Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2009.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: |
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. The Company's forward looking statements could be affected by many events, including (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade of the Company or its affiliates and/or of transactions insured by the Company or its affiliates, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, the Company's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses affecting the adequacy of the Company's loss reserves; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of the Company's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) decreased demand or increased competition; (7) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (8) changes in applicable laws or regulation, including insurance and tax laws; (9) other governmental actions; (10) difficulties with the execution of the Company's business strategy; (11) contract cancellations; (12) the Company's dependence on customers; (13) loss of key personnel; (14) adverse technological developments; (15) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (16) natural or man-made catastrophes; (17) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (18) management's response to these factors; and (19) other risk factors identified in Assured's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. |
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended September 30, | | Nine Months Ended September 30, | | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 3Q-08 | % Change versus YTD 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | ||||||||||||||||
Operating income reconciliation: | ||||||||||||||||||||
Operating (loss) incomeb | $ | (121.3 | ) | $ | 3.2 | NM | $ | (90.2 | ) | $ | 27.2 | NM | ||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax | 0.4 | (4.4 | ) | NM | 4.0 | (2.9 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairments unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | 36.9 | (55.6 | ) | NM | (106.5 | ) | 203.2 | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax | (0.8 | ) | 4.5 | NM | (27.4 | ) | 15.8 | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill impairment | (85.4 | ) | - | NM | (85.4 | ) | - | NM | ||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (170.2 | ) | $ | (52.2 | ) | 226 | % | $ | (305.5 | ) | $ | 243.3 | NM | ||||||
Earned premiums from refundings | $ | 3.2 | $ | 5.7 | (44 | )% | $ | 47.4 | $ | 7.2 | 558 | % | ||||||||
Operating income effect | $ | 1.3 | $ | 2.2 | (41 | )% | $ | 31.5 | $ | 2.8 | NM | |||||||||
Adjusted book value reconciliation: | 09/30/09 | 12/31/08 | ||||||||||||||||||
Book value (GAAP shareholder's equity)1 | $ | 792.9 | $ | 1,046.0 | (24 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Less: Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (321.9 | ) | (215.4 | ) | 49 | % | ||||||||||||||
Less: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax | 5.8 | 33.2 | (83 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect | 48.4 | (6.9 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||||||
Operating shareholder's equity | $ | 1,060.6 | $ | 1,235.1 | (14 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs, after tax | 29.1 | 51.3 | (43 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative installment premiums, after taxe | 289.3 | 367.6 | (21 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Plus: Unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax2 | 636.7 | 326.0 | 95 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Plus: Unearned premium reserve on credit derivatives, after tax3 | 9.3 | 10.6 | (12 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Adjusted book valued | $ | 1,966.8 | $ | 1,888.0 | 4 | % | ||||||||||||||
Return on equity ("ROE") calculations: | ||||||||||||||||||||
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio | (81.8 | )% | (17.4 | )% | (45.3 | )% | 32.2 | % | ||||||||||||
Operating ROEc | (41.6 | )% | 1.0 | % | (10.5 | )% | 3.0 | % |
1. The Company adopted ASC 944-20, "Financial Services - Insurance" (FAS No. 163, "Accounting for Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts") effective January 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting rule had an effect of $9.8 million on January 1, 2009 book value.
2. Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less ceded unearned premiums, after tax.
3. Unearned revenue less ceded unearned premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and operating ROE (c), adjusted book value (d), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].
NM = Not meaningful
Page 1
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| As of | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2009 | December 31, 2008 | ||||||
Assets | ||||||||
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | $ | 1,746.8 | $ | 1,511.3 | ||||
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value | 226.8 | 110.0 | ||||||
Total investments | 1,973.6 | 1,621.3 | ||||||
Cash | 4.9 | 7.8 | ||||||
Premiums receivable, net1 | 402.8 | 12.4 | ||||||
Ceded unearned premium reserve1 | 428.1 | 206.5 | ||||||
Deferred acquisition costs1 | 44.9 | 79.0 | ||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses1 | 56.6 | 22.0 | ||||||
Credit derivative assets | 229.3 | 139.5 | ||||||
Goodwill | - | 85.4 | ||||||
Committed capital securities, at fair value | 8.9 | 51.1 | ||||||
Deferred tax asset1 | 150.4 | 110.3 | ||||||
Salvage recoverable1 | 166.0 | 70.9 | ||||||
Other assets | 107.7 | 48.2 | ||||||
Total assets | $ | 3,573.2 | $ | 2,454.5 | ||||
Liabilities and shareholder's equity | ||||||||
Liabilities | ||||||||
Unearned premium reserves1 | $ | 1,420.2 | $ | 708.0 | ||||
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses1 | 182.2 | 133.7 | ||||||
Credit derivative liabilities | 905.3 | 481.0 | ||||||
Funds held under reinsurance contracts | 5.5 | 5.5 | ||||||
Reinsurance balances payable, net1 | 204.6 | 23.7 | ||||||
Other liabilities | 62.5 | 56.5 | ||||||
Total liabilities | 2,780.3 | 1,408.4 | ||||||
Shareholder's equity | ||||||||
Common stock | 15.0 | 15.0 | ||||||
Additional paid-in capital | 480.4 | 480.4 | ||||||
Retained earnings1,2 | 254.8 | 561.6 | ||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)2 | 42.7 | (10.9 | ) | |||||
Total shareholder's equity | 792.9 | 1,046.0 | ||||||
Total liabilities and shareholder's equity | $ | 3,573.2 | $ | 2,454.5 | ||||
1. The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
2. The Company adopted ASC 320-10-65-1, "Investments - Debt and Equity Securities" (FSP No. FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2, "Recognition and Presentation of Other-Than-Temporary Impairments") effective April 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting rule increased retained earnings and decreased accumulated other comprhansive income (loss) by $5.8 million.
Page 2
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| As of | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2009 | December 31, 2008 | |||||||
Claims paying resources | |||||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 179 | $ | 378 | |||||
Contingency reserve | 772 | 712 | |||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 951 | 1,090 | |||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 838 | 570 | |||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | 209 | 15 | |||||||
Total policyholders' surplus & reserves | 1,998 | 1,675 | |||||||
Present value of installment premiume,1 | 639 | 566 | |||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 200 | 200 | |||||||
Total claims paying resources | $ | 2,837 | $ | 2,441 | |||||
Net debt service outstanding2 | $ | 183,396 | $ | 164,283 | |||||
Gross debt service outstanding | 255,387 | 225,152 | |||||||
Net par insured outstanding2 | 128,854 | 111,025 | |||||||
Gross par outstanding | 178,432 | 152,801 | |||||||
Net debt service written (period ended) | 47,528 | 53,989 | |||||||
Gross debt service written (period ended) | 71,074 | 76,128 | |||||||
Net par written (period ended) | 26,712 | 33,680 | |||||||
Gross par written (period ended) | 40,142 | 47,567 | |||||||
Ratios: | |||||||||
Net par insured to statutory capital | 135:1 | 102:1 | |||||||
Capital ratio3 | 193:1 | 151:1 | |||||||
Financial resources ratio4 | 65:1 | 67:1 |
1. Includes financial guaranty and credit derivatives.
2. Statutory basis.
3. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
4. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].
Page 3
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended September 30, | | Nine Months Ended September 30, | | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 3Q-08 | % Change versus YTD 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||||||||
Revenues | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums1: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned direct premiums | $ | 12.0 | $ | 18.8 | (36 | )% | $ | 51.8 | $ | 44.2 | 17 | % | |||||||||
Scheduled net earned reinsurance premiums | (1.8 | ) | 3.3 | (155 | )% | 8.6 | 11.4 | (25 | )% | ||||||||||||
Refundings | 3.2 | 5.7 | (44 | )% | 47.4 | 7.2 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 13.4 | 27.7 | (52 | )% | 107.8 | 62.8 | 72 | % | |||||||||||||
Net investment income | 19.2 | 19.9 | (4 | )% | 58.3 | 53.4 | 9 | % | |||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives2 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 0 | % | 67.4 | 67.3 | 0 | % | |||||||||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives | (141.9 | ) | (6.2 | ) | NM | (169.2 | ) | (10.1 | ) | NM | |||||||||||
Other Income | 3.5 | 0.2 | NM | 4.6 | 0.4 | NM | |||||||||||||||
Total revenues | (83.4 | ) | 64.0 | NM | 68.9 | 173.8 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Expenses | |||||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses1 | 77.8 | 45.3 | 72 | % | 145.6 | 92.3 | 58 | % | |||||||||||||
Profit commission expense | - | - | NM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 100 | % | ||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs1 | 0.1 | 5.3 | (98 | )% | 2.9 | 12.1 | (76 | )% | |||||||||||||
Other operating expenses | 16.8 | 13.3 | 26 | % | 61.5 | 40.7 | 51 | % | |||||||||||||
Interest and related expenses | 1.3 | 1.5 | (13 | )% | 4.6 | 4.0 | 15 | % | |||||||||||||
Total expenses | 96.0 | 65.4 | 47 | % | 215.4 | 149.5 | 44 | % | |||||||||||||
Operating (loss) income before (benefit) provision for income taxes | (179.4 | ) | (1.4 | ) | NM | (146.5 | ) | 24.3 | NM | ||||||||||||
Total (benefit) provision for income taxes | (58.1 | ) | (4.6 | ) | NM | (56.3 | ) | (2.9 | ) | NM | |||||||||||
Operating (loss) incomeb | (121.3 | ) | 3.2 | NM | (90.2 | ) | 27.2 | NM | |||||||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax | 0.4 | (4.4 | ) | NM | 4.0 | (2.9 | ) | NM | |||||||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairments unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | 36.9 | (55.6 | ) | NM | (106.5 | ) | 203.2 | NM | |||||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax | (0.8 | ) | 4.5 | NM | (27.4 | ) | 15.8 | NM | |||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill impairment | (85.4 | ) | - | NM | (85.4 | ) | - | NM | |||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (170.2 | ) | $ | (52.2 | ) | 226 | % | $ | (305.5 | ) | $ | 243.3 | NM | |||||||
1. The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
2. Includes revenue earned on credit derivatives.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].
NM = Not meaningful
Page 4
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Detailed Income Statement (Non-GAAP)
(dollars in millions)
| 3Q-09 | 3Q-08 | Nine Months 2009 | Nine Months 2008 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income statement: | |||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums1: | |||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums | |||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | (0.7 | ) | $ | 10.2 | $ | (14.1 | ) | $ | 23.1 | |||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 0.8 | 0.8 | 43.6 | 2.4 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 9.2 | 10.1 | 28.5 | 27.3 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | |||||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums | 10.2 | 22.0 | 60.4 | 55.6 | |||||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings | 3.2 | 5.7 | 47.4 | 7.2 | |||||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 13.4 | 27.7 | 107.8 | 62.8 | |||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives2: | |||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned | 20.4 | 20.3 | 61.1 | 60.7 | |||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net | 2.0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 6.6 | |||||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives2 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 67.4 | 67.3 | |||||||||||
Other income | 3.7 | - | 3.7 | - | |||||||||||
Total revenues | 39.5 | 50.1 | 178.9 | 130.1 | |||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses1: | |||||||||||||||
Case | 77.8 | 77.8 | 145.6 | 93.0 | |||||||||||
Portfolio | - | (32.5 | ) | - | (0.7 | ) | |||||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses - financial guaranty | 77.8 | 45.3 | 145.6 | 92.3 | |||||||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives | 141.9 | 6.2 | 169.2 | 10.1 | |||||||||||
Total incurred losses | 219.7 | 51.5 | 314.8 | 102.4 | |||||||||||
Profit commission expense | - | - | 0.8 | 0.4 | |||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs1 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 12.1 | |||||||||||
Operating expenses | 13.8 | 13.3 | 42.4 | 40.7 | |||||||||||
Total expenses | $ | 233.6 | $ | 70.1 | $ | 360.9 | $ | 155.6 | |||||||
Underwriting (loss) gain | $ | (194.1 | ) | $ | (20.0 | ) | $ | (182.0 | ) | $ | (25.5 | ) | |||
Expense ratiof | 35.2 | % | 34.4 | % | 23.6 | % | 37.7 | % |
1. The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
2. Includes revenue earned on credit derivatives.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [expense ratio (f)].
Page 5
Assured Guaranty Corp.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended September 30, | Nine Months Ended September 30, | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||
Consolidated new business analysis: | |||||||||||||||
Present value of new business production ("PVP")a | |||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 141.9 | $ | 67.7 | $ | 487.2 | $ | 374.3 | |||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | - | - | 1.8 | 9.0 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 1.9 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 137.7 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | - | - | 57.8 | |||||||||||
Total PVPa | 143.8 | 82.2 | 505.6 | 578.8 | |||||||||||
Less: PVPa of credit derivatives | - | 30.3 | 2.4 | 143.8 | |||||||||||
PVPa of financial guaranty insurance | 143.8 | 51.9 | 503.2 | 435.0 | |||||||||||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVPa | (0.2 | ) | 20.8 | 33.3 | 70.0 | ||||||||||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP | 144.0 | 31.1 | 469.9 | 365.0 | |||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP1 | (14.3 | ) | 41.6 | 35.8 | 51.3 | ||||||||||
Total financial guaranty GWP | 129.7 | 72.7 | 505.7 | 416.3 | |||||||||||
Plus: Other segment GWP | - | - | - | 0.2 | |||||||||||
Total GWP | $ | 129.7 | $ | 72.7 | $ | 505.7 | $ | 416.5 | |||||||
| Gross Par Written | Gross Par Written | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q-09 | 3Q-08 | Nine Months 2009 | Nine Months 2008 | |||||||||||
Sector: | |||||||||||||||
Public Finance | |||||||||||||||
United States: | |||||||||||||||
Tax backed | $ | 2,703 | $ | 1,557 | $ | 14,197 | $ | 7,055 | |||||||
General obligation | 2,214 | 1,069 | 12,975 | 4,956 | |||||||||||
Municipal utilities | 1,020 | 837 | 4,761 | 4,599 | |||||||||||
Higher education | 266 | 317 | 2,000 | 1,539 | |||||||||||
Healthcare | 294 | 62 | 1,371 | 2,986 | |||||||||||
Transportation | 879 | 435 | 2,446 | 2,887 | |||||||||||
Housing | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Investor-owned utilities | - | - | - | 80 | |||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | 56 | 547 | 856 | 547 | |||||||||||
Other public finance | - | 750 | 247 | 1,309 | |||||||||||
Total public finance - U.S. | $ | 7,432 | $ | 5,574 | $ | 38,853 | $ | 25,958 | |||||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | - | - | 64 | - | |||||||||||
Regulated utilities | - | - | 121 | 450 | |||||||||||
Other public finance | - | - | 130 | - | |||||||||||
Total public finance - non-U.S. | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 316 | $ | 450 | |||||||
Total public finance | $ | 7,432 | $ | 5,574 | $ | 39,169 | $ | 26,407 | |||||||
Structured Finance | |||||||||||||||
United States: | |||||||||||||||
Consumer receivables | $ | 600 | $ | 350 | $ | 810 | $ | 1,825 | |||||||
Commercial receivables | - | 320 | 164 | 693 | |||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | - | - | - | 2,659 | |||||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | - | - | - | 3,034 | |||||||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Insurance securitizations | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Structured credit | - | 1,250 | - | 1,850 | |||||||||||
Other structured finance | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Total structured finance - U.S. | $ | 600 | $ | 1,920 | $ | 974 | $ | 10,059 | |||||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | - | - | - | 618 | |||||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | - | - | - | 3,096 | |||||||||||
Structured credit | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Commercial receivables | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Insurance securitizations | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Other structured finance | - | - | - | 250 | |||||||||||
Total structured finance - non-U.S. | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 3,964 | |||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 600 | $ | 1,920 | $ | 974 | $ | 14,023 | |||||||
Total exposures | $ | 8,032 | $ | 7,494 | $ | 40,142 | $ | 40,430 | |||||||
1. 2009 amounts include the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a)].
NM = Not meaningful
Page 6
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer
(dollars in millions)
Reinsurer | Ceded Par Outstanding | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RAM Reinsurance Co. Ltd. | $ | 3,237 | |||
MBIA Insurance Corporation | 273 | ||||
Radian Asset Assurance Inc. | 180 | ||||
Ambac Assurance Corporation | 109 | ||||
Other | 43 | ||||
Total | $ | 3,842 | |||
Page 7
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| As of September 30, | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | ||||||
| Net Par Outstanding | Avg. Rating1 | |||||
| |||||||
Sector: | |||||||
Public Finance | |||||||
United States: | |||||||
General obligation | $ | 23,581 | A | ||||
Tax backed | 11,941 | A | |||||
Municipal utilities | 9,342 | A- | |||||
Transportation | 7,080 | A | |||||
Healthcare | 5,486 | A | |||||
Higher education | 3,228 | A | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 1,073 | BBB | |||||
Investor-owned utilities | 788 | BBB+ | |||||
Housing | 415 | AA+ | |||||
Other public finance | 1,852 | A | |||||
Total public finance - U.S. | $ | 64,786 | A | ||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||
Pooled infrastructure | $ | 2,511 | AAA | ||||
Infrastructure finance | 1,354 | BBB | |||||
Regulated utilities | 1,095 | BBB+ | |||||
Other public finance | 1,017 | AA- | |||||
Total public finance - non-U.S. | $ | 5,977 | AA- | ||||
Total public finance | $ | 70,763 | A | ||||
Structured Finance | |||||||
United States: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 23,662 | AA+ | ||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 11,596 | BBB- | |||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 5,810 | AAA | |||||
Consumer receivables | 2,763 | AAA | |||||
Structured credit | 1,478 | A | |||||
Commercial receivables | 1,027 | BBB+ | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 255 | A | |||||
Other structured finance | 248 | BBB- | |||||
Total structured finance - U.S. | $ | 46,839 | AA- | ||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 6,649 | AAA | ||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 2,483 | AAA | |||||
Commercial receivables | 749 | A- | |||||
Structured credit | 542 | BBB | |||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 375 | AAA | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 286 | D | |||||
Other structured finance | 168 | AAA | |||||
Total structured finance - non-U.S. | $ | 11,252 | AA | ||||
Total structured finance | $ | 58,091 | AA- | ||||
Total exposures | $ | 128,854 | A+ | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 8
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
| As of September 30, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance - U.S. | Public Finance - non-U.S. | Structured Finance - U.S. | Structured Finance - non-U.S. | Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ratings1: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior | $ | - | - | $ | 1,593 | 26.6 | % | $ | 10,715 | 22.9 | % | $ | 4,727 | 42.0 | % | $ | 17,035 | 13.2 | % | |||||||||||||
AAA | 665 | 1.0 | % | 918 | 15.4 | % | 15,064 | 32.2 | % | 3,696 | 32.9 | % | 20,343 | 15.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
AA | 12,758 | 19.7 | % | 846 | 14.2 | % | 4,328 | 9.2 | % | 318 | 2.8 | % | 18,250 | 14.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||
A | 40,696 | 62.8 | % | 862 | 14.4 | % | 3,282 | 7.0 | % | 533 | 4.7 | % | 45,373 | 35.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 10,041 | 15.5 | % | 1,655 | 27.7 | % | 6,978 | 14.9 | % | 1,699 | 15.1 | % | 20,373 | 15.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade ("BIG") | 626 | 1.0 | % | 103 | 1.7 | % | 6,472 | 13.8 | % | 279 | 2.5 | % | 7,480 | 5.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 64,786 | 100.0 | % | $ | 5,977 | 100.0 | % | $ | 46,839 | 100.0 | % | $ | 11,252 | 100.0 | % | $ | 128,854 | 100.0 | % | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 9
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2009
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.: | ||||||||
California | $ | 7,586 | 5.9 | % | ||||
Texas | 6,240 | 4.8 | % | |||||
New York | 4,864 | 3.8 | % | |||||
Florida | 4,598 | 3.6 | % | |||||
Pennsylvania | 4,264 | 3.3 | % | |||||
Illinois | 3,792 | 2.9 | % | |||||
New Jersey | 2,846 | 2.2 | % | |||||
Puerto Rico | 1,979 | 1.5 | % | |||||
Michigan | 1,906 | 1.5 | % | |||||
Alabama | 1,677 | 1.3 | % | |||||
Other states | 25,034 | 19.4 | % | |||||
Mortgage and structured (multiple states) | 46,839 | 36.4 | % | |||||
Total U.S. | $ | 111,625 | 86.6 | % | ||||
Non-U.S.: | ||||||||
United Kingdom | $ | 8,393 | 6.5 | % | ||||
Australia | 1,370 | 1.1 | % | |||||
Germany | 1,061 | 0.8 | % | |||||
Other | 6,405 | 5.0 | % | |||||
Total non-U.S. | $ | 17,229 | 13.4 | % | ||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 128,854 | 100.0 | % | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 10
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009
| Prime First Lien | Closed End Seconds | HELOC | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | Total Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratings1: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 409 | $ | 409 | |||||||||
AAA | 5 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 1 | 676 | 720 | ||||||||||||||||
AA | 35 | 39 | 6 | 196 | 16 | 867 | 1,159 | ||||||||||||||||
A | 37 | 1 | 2 | 779 | 39 | 769 | 1,628 | ||||||||||||||||
BBB | 75 | - | 20 | 1,193 | 199 | 1,114 | 2,602 | ||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade | 512 | 248 | 667 | 2,081 | 928 | 644 | 5,079 | ||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 663 | $ | 289 | $ | 705 | $ | 4,275 | $ | 1,184 | $ | 4,479 | $ | 11,596 | |||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009
| Prime First Lien | Closed End Seconds | HELOC | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | Total Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year insured: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2004 and prior | $ | 57 | $ | 1 | $ | 38 | $ | 46 | $ | 48 | $ | 281 | $ | 474 | |||||||||
2005 | 120 | - | 266 | 274 | 28 | 48 | 736 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | 39 | 3,349 | 3,388 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | 486 | 288 | 401 | 2,234 | 957 | 801 | 5,167 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | 1,721 | 112 | - | 1,833 | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 663 | $ | 289 | $ | 705 | $ | 4,275 | $ | 1,184 | $ | 4,479 | $ | 11,596 | |||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 11
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 136 | $ | 51 | $ | 173 | $ | 86 | $ | 28 | $ | 474 | |||||||||
2005 | - | 60 | 11 | 119 | 114 | 431 | 736 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | 409 | 513 | 865 | 654 | 840 | 107 | 3,388 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 11 | 47 | 11 | 586 | 4,512 | 5,167 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | 184 | 671 | 977 | - | 1,833 | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | 409 | $ | 720 | $ | 1,159 | $ | 1,628 | $ | 2,602 | $ | 5,079 | $ | 11,596 | ||||||||||
% of total | 3.5 | % | 6.2 | % | 10.0 | % | 14.0 | % | 22.4 | % | 43.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Year Issued as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 136 | $ | 51 | $ | 173 | $ | 86 | $ | 28 | $ | 474 | |||||||||
2005 | 409 | 573 | 876 | 773 | 954 | 499 | 4,085 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | 9 | 184 | 11 | 223 | 253 | 681 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 1 | 47 | 671 | 1,340 | 4,298 | 6,357 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | 409 | $ | 720 | $ | 1,159 | $ | 1,628 | $ | 2,602 | $ | 5,079 | $ | 11,596 | ||||||||||
% of total | 3.5 | % | 6.2 | % | 10.0 | % | 14.0 | % | 22.4 | % | 43.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Home Equity Line of Credit ("HELOC") RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 10 | $ | 6 | $ | 2 | $ | 20 | $ | 0 | $ | 38 | |||||||||
2005 | - | - | - | - | - | 266 | 266 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | - | - | - | - | 401 | 401 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | - | $ | 10 | $ | 6 | $ | 2 | $ | 20 | $ | 667 | $ | 705 | ||||||||||
% of total | 0.0 | % | 1.4 | % | 0.8 | % | 0.3 | % | 2.9 | % | 94.6 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Closed End Seconds ("CES") RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 0 | $ | - | $ | 1 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 1 | |||||||||
2005 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | - | 39 | - | - | 248 | 288 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | - | $ | 0 | $ | 39 | $ | 1 | $ | - | $ | 248 | $ | 289 | ||||||||||
% of total | 0.0 | % | 0.1 | % | 13.6 | % | 0.4 | % | 0.0 | % | 85.9 | % | 100.0 | % |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 12
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Alternative-A ("Alt-A") RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 14 | $ | - | $ | 8 | $ | 14 | $ | 11 | $ | 46 | |||||||||
2005 | - | 12 | 11 | 100 | 11 | 140 | 274 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | - | - | - | 303 | 1,930 | 2,234 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | 184 | 671 | 865 | - | 1,721 | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | - | $ | 27 | $ | 196 | $ | 779 | $ | 1,193 | $ | 2,081 | $ | 4,275 | ||||||||||
% of total | 0.0 | % | 0.6 | % | 4.6 | % | 18.2 | % | 27.9 | % | 48.7 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Alt-A Option Adjustable rate Mortgage ("ARM") RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 9 | $ | 39 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 48 | |||||||||
2005 | - | - | - | - | 28 | - | 28 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | 39 | 39 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 1 | 7 | - | 59 | 889 | 957 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | 112 | - | 112 | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | - | $ | 1 | $ | 16 | $ | 39 | $ | 199 | $ | 928 | $ | 1,184 | ||||||||||
% of total | 0.0 | % | 0.1 | % | 1.4 | % | 3.3 | % | 16.8 | % | 78.3 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Subprime First Lien RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 106 | $ | 2 | $ | 104 | $ | 51 | $ | 18 | $ | 281 | |||||||||
2005 | - | 48 | - | - | - | - | 48 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | 409 | 513 | 865 | 654 | 840 | 68 | 3,349 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 9 | - | 11 | 223 | 558 | 801 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
$ | 409 | $ | 676 | $ | 867 | $ | 769 | $ | 1,114 | $ | 644 | $ | 4,479 | ||||||||||
% of total | 9.1 | % | 15.1 | % | 19.4 | % | 17.2 | % | 24.9 | % | 14.4 | % | 100.0 | % |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 13
U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 20091
U.S. Prime First Lien
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 120 | 65.9 | % | 5.0 | % | 0.3 | % | 5.1 | % | 6 | |||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 486 | 79.1 | % | 11.1 | % | 0.9 | % | 9.5 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 606 | 76.5 | % | 9.9 | % | 0.8 | % | 8.6 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
U.S. CES
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | $ | 288 | 47.6 | % | 13.4 | % | 42.5 | % | 15.4 | % | 5 | |||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 288 | 47.6 | % | 13.4 | % | 42.5 | % | 15.4 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 266 | 27.2 | % | 0.0 | % | 14.9 | % | 15.1 | % | 2 | |||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 401 | 53.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 24.8 | % | 9.4 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 667 | 42.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 20.8 | % | 11.6 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 274 | 54.6 | % | 11.8 | % | 1.6 | % | 13.2 | % | 13 | |||||||||
2006 | 218 | 68.4 | % | 43.2 | % | 6.5 | % | 34.2 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
2007 | 3,736 | 74.8 | % | 22.8 | % | 4.0 | % | 32.2 | % | 11 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 4,229 | 73.2 | % | 23.1 | % | 4.0 | % | 31.1 | % | 26 | ||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 14
Assured Guaranty Corp.
U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 20091
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 28 | 29.8 | % | 26.7 | % | 1.9 | % | 24.6 | % | 1 | |||||||||
2006 | 39 | 50.4 | % | 17.8 | % | 2.6 | % | 30.7 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
2007 | 1,068 | 74.6 | % | 19.4 | % | 3.8 | % | 32.5 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 1,135 | 72.6 | % | 19.6 | % | 3.7 | % | 32.2 | % | 9 | ||||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 3,397 | 29.6 | % | 61.3 | % | 10.1 | % | 44.0 | % | 3 | |||||||||
2006 | 424 | 44.3 | % | 30.3 | % | 13.2 | % | 49.3 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
2007 | 377 | 46.1 | % | 37.7 | % | 13.7 | % | 50.4 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 4,198 | 32.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 10.7 | % | 45.1 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 15
Assured Guaranty Guaranty Corp.
U.S. Direct CMBS Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 20091
U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS")
Year issued: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 2,742 | 94.6 | % | 29.2 | % | 0.1 | % | 2.1 | % | 159 | |||||||||
2006 | 1,161 | 97.8 | % | 30.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 2.7 | % | 58 | ||||||||||
2007 | 427 | 86.5 | % | 21.7 | % | 0.1 | % | 3.6 | % | 13 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 4,330 | 94.7 | % | 28.4 | % | 0.1 | % | 2.4 | % | 230 | ||||||||||
U.S. Other CMBS7
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement6 | Avg. Current Enhancement6 | | | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commercial Real Estate | $ | 622 | 49.7 | % | 49.2 | % | 48.7 | % | ||||||||||||
CDO of CMBS8 | 630 | 50.3 | % | 29.1 | % | 42.4 | % | |||||||||||||
$ | 1,252 | 100.0 | % | 39.1 | % | 45.6 | % | |||||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
6. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
7. Represents U.S. other CMBS not included in the table above.
8. Relates to vintages 2003 and prior.
Page 16
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations as of September 30, 2009
Ratings1: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super Senior | $ | 7,782 | 26.1 | % | 38.2 | % | 31.8 | % | ||||||||
AAA | 14,638 | 49.1 | % | 33.6 | % | 31.3 | % | |||||||||
AA | 2,432 | 8.2 | % | 35.0 | % | 32.9 | % | |||||||||
A | 537 | 1.8 | % | 46.9 | % | 37.7 | % | |||||||||
BBB | 3,128 | 10.5 | % | 45.2 | % | 37.2 | % | |||||||||
Below investment grade | 1,310 | 4.3 | % | 44.4 | % | 26.9 | % | |||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 29,827 | 100.0 | % | 36.8 | % | 32.1 | % | ||||||||
Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 1,018 | 3.4 | % | 28.4 | % | 36.1 | % | |||||||
2005 | 5,160 | 17.3 | % | 36.7 | % | 29.1 | % | ||||||||
2006 | 9,003 | 30.2 | % | 36.6 | % | 28.6 | % | ||||||||
2007 | 12,510 | 41.9 | % | 38.0 | % | 36.0 | % | ||||||||
2008 | 2,136 | 7.2 | % | 35.5 | % | 29.3 | % | ||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
$ | 29,827 | 100.0 | % | 36.8 | % | 32.1 | % | ||||||||
Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2009
Asset class: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | Avg. Rating1 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLOs/CBOs3 | $ | 19,401 | 65.0 | % | 34.3 | % | 28.2 | % | AAA | ||||||
Market value CDOs4 of corporates | 3,390 | 11.4 | % | 37.9 | % | 42.3 | % | AAA | |||||||
Trust preferred - banks and insurance | 2,833 | 9.5 | % | 46.9 | % | 36.6 | % | BBB+ | |||||||
Trust preferred - US mortgage and REITs5 | 1,885 | 6.3 | % | 50.1 | % | 42.7 | % | BB+ | |||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate | 1,659 | 5.6 | % | 30.0 | % | 43.5 | % | Super Senior | |||||||
Trust preferred - European mortgage and REITs | 659 | 2.2 | % | 37.5 | % | 31.9 | % | BBB- | |||||||
$ | 29,827 | 100.0 | % | 36.8 | % | 32.1 | % | AA+ | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
3. CBOs (collateralized bond obligations) /CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) are largely non-investment grade/high yield collateral.
4. CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.
5. REITs are real estate investment trusts.
Page 17
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consumer Receivables Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Consolidated U.S. Consumer Receivables by Year Issued as of September 30, 2009
Year issued: | Credit Cards | Student Loans | Auto | Manufactured Housing | Total Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 35 | $ | 21 | $ | 3 | $ | 6 | $ | 65 | |||||||
2005 | 720 | - | 3 | - | 723 | ||||||||||||
2006 | - | 320 | - | - | 320 | ||||||||||||
2007 | 400 | 708 | 90 | - | 1,198 | ||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | 99 | - | 99 | ||||||||||||
2009 | 200 | 158 | - | - | 358 | ||||||||||||
$ | 1,355 | $ | 1,207 | $ | 195 | $ | 6 | $ | 2,763 | ||||||||
Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||
2005 | - | 3 | - | - | - | - | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | 320 | - | - | - | - | 320 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 708 | - | - | 90 | - | 798 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | 720 | - | - | 99 | - | - | 819 | ||||||||||||||||
2009 | 600 | - | - | 158 | - | - | 758 | ||||||||||||||||
$ | 1,320 | $ | 1,031 | $ | - | $ | 257 | $ | 90 | $ | - | $ | 2,698 | ||||||||||
% of total | 48.9 | % | 38.2 | % | 0.0 | % | 9.5 | % | 3.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating1 and Year Issued as of September 30, 2009
Year issued: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||
2005 | 720 | 3 | - | - | - | - | 723 | |||||||||||||||
2006 | - | 320 | - | - | - | - | 320 | |||||||||||||||
2007 | 400 | 708 | - | - | 90 | - | 1,198 | |||||||||||||||
2008 | �� | - | - | - | 99 | - | - | 99 | ||||||||||||||
2009 | 200 | - | - | 158 | - | - | 358 | |||||||||||||||
$ | 1,320 | $ | 1,031 | $ | - | $ | 257 | $ | 90 | $ | - | $ | 2,698 | |||||||||
% of total | 48.9 | % | 38.2 | % | 0.0 | % | 9.5 | % | 3.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Asset Class as of September 30, 2009
Asset class: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Average Rating1 | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Student loans | $ | 1,186 | 44.0 | % | AAA | 6.4 | % | 7.4 | % | |||||||
Credit cards | 1,320 | 48.9 | % | AAA | 29.3 | % | 29.3 | % | ||||||||
Auto | 192 | 7.1 | % | BBB+ | 20.4 | % | 32.6 | % | ||||||||
$ | 2,698 | 100.0 | % | AAA | 18.6 | % | 19.9 | % | ||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
Page 18
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Credit Derivative Exposure Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating
| September 30, 2009 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
| |||||||||
Ratings1: | |||||||||
Super senior | $ | 2,566 | 5.3 | % | |||||
AAA | 3,205 | 6.6 | % | ||||||
AA | 18,045 | 37.1 | % | ||||||
A | 6,264 | 12.9 | % | ||||||
BBB | 4,402 | 9.1 | % | ||||||
Below investment grade | 14,122 | 29.1 | % | ||||||
Total exposures | $ | 48,604 | 100.0 | % | |||||
Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating
| September 30, 2009 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sector: | Net Par Outstanding | Average Rating1 | ||||||
| ||||||||
Public Finance | ||||||||
United States: | ||||||||
Municipal utilities | $ | 35 | A+ | |||||
Healthcare | 15 | A | ||||||
Total public finance - U.S. | $ | 50 | A+ | |||||
Non-U.S.: | ||||||||
Pooled infrastructure | $ | 2,511 | AAA | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 509 | BBB | ||||||
Regulated utilities | 329 | BBB+ | ||||||
Other public finance | 24 | BBB | ||||||
Total public finance - non-U.S. | $ | 3,373 | AA+ | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 3,423 | AA+ | |||||
Structured Finance | ||||||||
United States: | ||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 20,494 | AA+ | |||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 8,854 | BBB | ||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 5,559 | AAA | ||||||
Commercial receivables | 498 | BBB+ | ||||||
Consumer receivables | 462 | AAA | ||||||
Structured credit | 259 | BBB- | ||||||
Insurance securitizations | 75 | BBB | ||||||
Other structured finance | 95 | BBB | ||||||
Total structured finance - U.S. | $ | 36,296 | AA- | |||||
Non-U.S.: | ||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 5,971 | AAA | |||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 2,145 | AAA | ||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 339 | AAA | ||||||
Structured credit | 129 | BBB | ||||||
Commercial receivables | 108 | A | ||||||
Insurance securitizations | 30 | D | ||||||
Other structured finance | 163 | AAA | ||||||
Total structured finance - non-U.S. | $ | 8,885 | AAA | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 45,181 | AA | |||||
Total exposure | $ | 48,604 | AA | |||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 19
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives as of September 30, 2009
Asset Type: | Net Par Outstanding (in billions) | Wtd. Avg. Credit Rating | 3Q-09 Unrealized Gain (Loss) (in millions) | YTD 3Q-09 Unrealized Gain (Loss) (in millions) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pooled corporates1: | ||||||||||||||
High yield corporates | $ | 16.9 | AAA | $ | 0.9 | $ | (60.3 | ) | ||||||
Trust preferred | 4.7 | BBB- | (25.5 | ) | (25.2 | ) | ||||||||
Market value CDOs of corporates | 3.1 | AAA | (1.9 | ) | (8.0 | ) | ||||||||
Investment grade corporates | 1.7 | AAA | 0.6 | 3.5 | ||||||||||
CDO of CDOs (corporate) | - | - | 5.0 | 4.9 | ||||||||||
Total pooled corporate obligations | 26.4 | AA | (20.9 | ) | (85.1 | ) | ||||||||
U.S. RMBS2: | ||||||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 4.5 | BB+ | (38.6 | ) | (239.0 | ) | ||||||||
Subprime lien | 4.0 | A+ | 0.7 | (2.1 | ) | |||||||||
Prime first lien | 2.5 | A+ | (19.9 | ) | (78.7 | ) | ||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 11.0 | A- | (57.8 | ) | (319.8 | ) | ||||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities3 | 6.1 | AAA | - - | (26.2 | ) | |||||||||
Other4 | 5.1 | AA- | (5.8 | ) | 98.5 | |||||||||
Total | $ | 48.6 | AA | $ | (84.5 | ) | $ | (332.6 | ) | |||||
1. Corporate collateralized loan obligations, market value CDOs, and trust preferred securities include all U.S. structured finance pooled corporate obligations and international pooled corporate obligations.
2. Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities and residential international mortgage-backed and home equity securities.
3. Commercial mortgage-backed securities is comprised of commercial U.S. structured finance and commercial international mortgage backed securities.
4. Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables and international infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities.
Page 20
Assured Guaranty Corp.
50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California (State of) | $ | 941 | A | |||
Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) | 785 | BBB- | ||||
New Jersey (State of) | 750 | AA- | ||||
North Texas Tollway Authority | 727 | A- | ||||
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport | 685 | A+ | ||||
Miami-Dade County School Board | 642 | A | ||||
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania | 616 | BBB+ | ||||
Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission | 603 | A+ | ||||
Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority | 520 | A+ | ||||
New York (State of) | 509 | AA- | ||||
Denver Colorado Airport | 506 | A+ | ||||
Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority | 504 | BBB | ||||
New York (City of) New York | 504 | AA- | ||||
San Francisco Airports Commission | 450 | A | ||||
Piedmont Municipal Power Authority - South Carolina | 442 | BBB | ||||
Michigan (State of) | 407 | A+ | ||||
Chicago Illinois Public Schools | 365 | A+ | ||||
New York MTA Transportation Authority | 345 | A | ||||
Chicago-O'Hare Airport | 333 | A | ||||
Dormitory Authority of the State of New York - School District | 316 | A | ||||
Chicago (City of) Illinois | 311 | A+ | ||||
Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority - Sales Tax | 308 | AA | ||||
Indianapolis Indiana Waterworks Project | 304 | A+ | ||||
Massachusetts Educational Finance Authority 2008-H | 300 | AA | ||||
Miami-Dade (County of) Florida | 298 | A+ | ||||
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority | 288 | BBB- | ||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) | 277 | AA | ||||
Kentucky (Commonwealth of) | 276 | AA- | ||||
Long Island Power Authority | 269 | A- | ||||
American Municipal Power Ohio, Inc. | 269 | A | ||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | 267 | D | ||||
Massachusetts Turnpike Authority | 266 | A | ||||
New Jersey Higher Education Student Assistance Authority 2008-A | 262 | A | ||||
Chicago Illinois Transit Authority | 256 | A+ | ||||
Metro Washington Airports Authority - Dulles Toll Road | 254 | BBB+ | ||||
Louisville Arena Authority Inc. | 245 | BBB- | ||||
Dallas (City of) Texas Civic Center Convention Complex | 244 | A | ||||
North Carolina Eastern Municipal Power Agency | 243 | BBB | ||||
Florida (State of) Department of Environmental Protection Save Our Coast | 239 | A+ | ||||
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey | 238 | AA- | ||||
Virtua Health | 221 | A | ||||
Orange (County of) Florida Schools | 217 | AA- | ||||
Intermountain Power Authority - Utah | 216 | A+ | ||||
Nassau (County of) New York | 215 | A | ||||
District of Columbia Water and Sewer Authority | 209 | A+ | ||||
Energy Northwest | 205 | AA- | ||||
North Carolina Turnpike Authority - Triangle Expressway | 202 | BBB- | ||||
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority Power | 201 | A- | ||||
Iowa Health System | 199 | A+ | ||||
Yankee Stadium LLC (New York City Industrial Development Authority) | 198 | BBB- | ||||
Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures | $ | 18,447 | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 21
Assured Guaranty Corp.
50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement % | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Discover Card Master Trust I Series A | $ | 720 | AAA | 12.5 | % | |||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-2 | 573 | CCC | 7.9 | % | ||||||
Fortress Credit Investments I Ltd | 529 | AAA | 33.6 | % | ||||||
Anchorage Crossover Credit Finance Ltd | 504 | AAA | 35.5 | % | ||||||
Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund Ltd | 496 | AAA | 63.8 | % | ||||||
280 Funding I | 495 | AAA | 18.4 | % | ||||||
MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-2 | 486 | BB | 11.1 | % | ||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 449 | BBB | 25.4 | % | ||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 441 | B | 27.7 | % | ||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 416 | BBB- | 26.9 | % | ||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 409 | A | 26.2 | % | ||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-3 | 402 | B | 14.2 | % | ||||||
Private Structured Credit | 400 | BBB+ | Private | |||||||
Citibank Master Trust Series 2007-A7 | 400 | AAA | 44.0 | % | ||||||
CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-D | 381 | CCC | 0.0 | % | ||||||
Private Student Loan Transaction 2007 | 375 | AAA | 11.0 | % | ||||||
Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 | 375 | CCC | 8.2 | % | ||||||
KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 Ltd | 369 | AAA | 24.3 | % | ||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 359 | B | 21.6 | % | ||||||
Applebee's Enterprises LLC | 352 | BBB- | 33.9 | % | ||||||
AAA TRUST 2007-2 | 340 | B | 40.3 | % | ||||||
Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited | 337 | AA | 47.5 | % | ||||||
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007 | 333 | AAA | 3.2 | % | ||||||
Liberty CLO Ltd | 328 | AAA | 0.0 | % | ||||||
Dow Jones CDX.IG.04 7-Year Index (II) | 318 | AAA | 41.0 | % | ||||||
Dow Jones CDX.NA.IG.4 Single Tranche Transaction | 317 | AAA | 41.0 | % | ||||||
Dow Jones CDX.IG.04 7-Year Index (I) | 317 | AAA | 41.0 | % | ||||||
Symphony Credit Opportunities | 308 | AAA | 49.9 | % | ||||||
Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund Ltd | 307 | AAA | 29.1 | % | ||||||
Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G | 275 | AAA | 50.9 | % | ||||||
Dow Jones CDX.IG.08 5 Year | 275 | AAA | 41.0 | % | ||||||
Wasatch CLO, Ltd. | 273 | AAA | 26.4 | % | ||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XIV | 273 | BBB | 21.8 | % | ||||||
Cent CDO XI Limited | 270 | AAA | 18.7 | % | ||||||
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006 | 267 | AAA | 10.5 | % | ||||||
Park Avenue Receivables Company LLC | 266 | AAA | 2.5 | % | ||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 263 | A | 35.3 | % | ||||||
HSAM Long/Short 2007-2 | 257 | AAA | 28.1 | % | ||||||
Babcock & Brown Air Funding I Ltd. Series 2007-1 | 248 | A- | 39.0 | % | ||||||
Kodiak CDO II | 243 | AA | 39.9 | % | ||||||
United Commercial Mortgage Securities 2007-1 | 235 | A | 10.0 | % | ||||||
Sandelman Finance 2006-2, Limited | 235 | AAA | 30.2 | % | ||||||
Newstar Credit Opportunities Funding II | 231 | AA | 10.5 | % | ||||||
Blue Mountain CLO Ltd. 2005-1 | 227 | AAA | 26.8 | % | ||||||
Capitalsource Commercial Real Estate CLO 2006-1 | 226 | AAA | 43.3 | % | ||||||
Baker Street CLO II | 225 | AAA | 22.0 | % | ||||||
IG Systhentic CDS | 225 | AAA | 41.0 | % | ||||||
Kingsland CLO IV | 224 | AAA | 47.4 | % | ||||||
Rait Preferred Funding II, Ltd. | 223 | AAA | 50.2 | % | ||||||
Franklin CLO V | 221 | AAA | 17.1 | % | ||||||
Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures | $ | 17,018 | ||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 22
Assured Guaranty Corp.
10 Largest Healthcare and Non-U.S. Exposures
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating1 | State | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virtua Health | $ | 221 | A | NJ | ||||
Iowa Health System | 199 | A+ | IA | |||||
Integris Health, Inc. | 172 | A+ | OK | |||||
CHRISTUS Health | 167 | A+ | TX | |||||
Children's Hospital | 162 | A+ | AL | |||||
Fairview Health Services | 160 | A | MN | |||||
Methodist Healthcare | 157 | A | TN | |||||
Spartanburg Regional Medical Center | 143 | A | SC | |||||
Essentia Health | 140 | A- | MN | |||||
Meridian Health System | 136 | A- | NJ | |||||
Total top 10 healthcare exposures | $ | 1,657 | ||||||
10 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime European RMBS | $ | 993 | AAA | |||
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III | 670 | Super senior | ||||
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II | 648 | Super senior | ||||
Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V. | 480 | AAA | ||||
Harvest CLO III | 381 | AAA | ||||
Taberna Europe CDO I Plc | 367 | BBB- | ||||
RMF Euro CDO V Plc | 358 | AAA | ||||
Nemus Funding No.1 Plc | 339 | Super senior | ||||
Windmill CLO I Plc | 330 | Super senior | ||||
Wood Street CLO V B.V. | 319 | Super senior | ||||
Total top 10 non-U.S. exposures | $ | 4,885 | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 23
Assured Guaranty Corp.
10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures
Servicer: | Net Par Outstanding | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP | $ | 2,815 | |||
Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., | 1,604 | ||||
GMAC Mortgage Corporation | 1,550 | ||||
American Home Mortgage Servicing, Inc. | 1,205 | ||||
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | 1,040 | ||||
Wilshire Credit Corporation | 392 | ||||
OneWest Bank Group LLC | 337 | ||||
Ocwen Loan Servicing LLC | 332 | ||||
Carrington Mortgage Services | 305 | ||||
Bank of America, N.A. | 290 | ||||
Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers exposures | $ | 9,870 | |||
Page 24
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 2)
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Below Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type: | Wtd. Avg. Remaining Life | Net Par Outstanding | Average Rating1 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Finance | ||||||||||
United States: | ||||||||||
Municipal utilities | 25.8 | $ | 309 | C- | ||||||
General obligation | 8.1 | 108 | BB+ | |||||||
Healthcare | 13.1 | 106 | B+ | |||||||
Tax backed | 26.6 | 50 | BB | |||||||
Infrastructure finance | 12.7 | 26 | C- | |||||||
Transportation | 25.7 | 18 | BB+ | |||||||
Investor-owned utilities | 7.3 | 2 | BB | |||||||
Housing | 11.1 | 2 | CCC | |||||||
Higher education | 10.0 | 1 | BB- | |||||||
Other public finance | 1.8 | 4 | B | |||||||
Total public finance - U.S. | 19.8 | $ | 626 | CCC- | ||||||
Non-U.S.: | ||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | 6.3 | 103 | CCC+ | |||||||
Total public finance - non-U.S. | 6.3 | $ | 103 | CCC- | ||||||
Total public finance | 17.9 | $ | 729 | CCC- | ||||||
Structured Finance | ||||||||||
United States: | ||||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 6.9 | $ | 5,079 | B- | ||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 21.0 | 1,311 | B+ | |||||||
Structured credit | 0.4 | 54 | BB | |||||||
Consumer receivables | 23.4 | 6 | BB | |||||||
Other structured finance | 25.7 | 22 | C | |||||||
Total structured finance - U.S. | 9.8 | $ | 6,472 | B- | ||||||
Non-U.S.: | ||||||||||
Insurance securitizations | 24.5 | 279 | D | |||||||
Total structured finance - non-U.S. | 24.5 | $ | 279 | D | ||||||
Total structured finance | 10.4 | $ | 6,751 | B- | ||||||
Total non-investment grade exposures | 11.1 | $ | 7,480 | B- | ||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 25
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 2)
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Below Investment Grade Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of September 30, 2009
Name or Description | Wtd. Avg. Remaining Life | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 28.7 | $ | 573 | CCC | 7.9 | % | ||||||
MORTGAGEIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 3.8 | 486 | BB | 11.1 | % | |||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 6.5 | 441 | B | 27.7 | % | |||||||
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 | 3.5 | 402 | B | 14.2 | % | |||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D | 5.6 | 381 | CCC | 0.0 | % | |||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 | 1.9 | 375 | CCC | 8.2 | % | |||||||
Private RMBS Re-Remic | 1.7 | 359 | B | 21.6 | % | |||||||
AAA TRUST 2007-2 | 2.0 | 340 | B | 40.3 | % | |||||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | 26.7 | 268 | D | N/A | ||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding IV Ltd. | 26.2 | 219 | BB | 13.1 | % | |||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd | 23.6 | 217 | B | 12.1 | % | |||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd. | 26.1 | 185 | CCC | 36.9 | % | |||||||
Attentus CDO I Limited Class A-1 | 11.2 | 178 | BB | 36.5 | % | |||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-OA10 | 2.3 | 149 | CCC | 10.3 | % | |||||||
Orkney Re II, PLC Floating Rate Notes | 8.8 | 149 | D | NM | ||||||||
Attentus CDO II Limited Class A-1 | 13.0 | 147 | BB | 44.7 | % | |||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. | 21.7 | 146 | B | 5.8 | % | |||||||
Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes | 26.6 | 130 | D | NM | ||||||||
Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N | 3.8 | 115 | BB | 11.6 | % | |||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd. Class A-1 | 27.2 | 114 | BB | 36.6 | % | |||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J CL 2-A | 4.6 | 108 | N/A | 0.0 | % | |||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J CL 1-A | 4.6 | 107 | CCC | 0.0 | % | |||||||
Detroit (City of) Michigan | 8.1 | 106 | BB+ | N/A | ||||||||
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL3 | 4.9 | 104 | CCC | 19.0 | % | |||||||
TBW Mortgage-Backed Trust Series 2007-2 | 3.5 | 96 | B | 6.5 | % | |||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. | 21.7 | 70 | B | 36.5 | % | |||||||
MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 A4 | 4.2 | 68 | B | 27.2 | % | |||||||
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL2 | 1.7 | 63 | CCC | 0.0 | % | |||||||
St. Barnabas Health System - New Jersey | 11.7 | 56 | BB | N/A | ||||||||
Customer Asset Protection Company (CAPCO), Excess SIPC | 0.4 | 54 | BB | N/A | ||||||||
CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 | 5.1 | 53 | CCC | 3.8 | % | |||||||
SACO I Trust 2005-GP1 | 1.2 | 51 | CCC | 0.0 | % | |||||||
Total | $ | 6,310 | ||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 26
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Surveillance Categories
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by Surveillance Category1
| September 30, 2009 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Number of Credits in Category | ||||||||
Category 1 | $ | 5,122 | 68.5 | % | 169 | ||||||
Category 2 | 1,139 | 15.2 | % | 123 | |||||||
Category 3 | 1,219 | 16.3 | % | 89 | |||||||
BIG Total | $ | 7,480 | 100.0 | % | 381 | ||||||
1. Effective January 1, 2009 Assured Guaranty adopted ASC 944-20. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade ("BIG") credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories: BIG Category 1: BIG transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make material losses possible, but for which no losses have been incurred. Non-investment grade transactions on which liquidity claims have been paid are in this category. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 2: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established but for which no unreimbursed claims have yet been paid. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 3: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established and on which unreimbursed claims have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly.
Page 27
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)
Loss and LAE Reserves by Type: | As of September 30, 2009 | As of December 31, 2008 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Case1,2 | $ | 181.0 | $ | 91.5 | ||||
IBNR and portfolio1 | 1.2 | 42.2 | ||||||
Total | $ | 182.2 | $ | 133.7 | ||||
Case reserves on credit derivatives | $ | 253.2 | $ | - | ||||
Credit derivative portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits1 | - | 15.2 | ||||||
Credit derivative portfolio reserves on CMC list1 | - | 22.3 | ||||||
Total loss and LAE reserves on credit derivatives | $ | 253.2 | $ | 37.5 | ||||
Total loss and LAE reserves, including credit derivatives | $ | 435.4 | $ | 171.2 | ||||
1. The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
2. Includes $0.8 million of case reserves in Other segment.
Page 28
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Total Financial Guaranty:1 | Total BIG Net Par Outstanding | 3Q-09 Incurred Losses2,4 | YTD 3Q-09 Incurred Losses2,4 | Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves3,4 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime first lien | $ | 512 | $ | 1.1 | $ | 1.0 | $ | 2.2 | ||||||
Closed end seconds | 248 | 9.8 | 37.7 | 29.0 | ||||||||||
HELOC | 667 | 33.5 | 43.3 | 6.4 | ||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 2,081 | 60.9 | 78.5 | 123.4 | ||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 927 | 69.5 | 94.3 | 129.4 | ||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 644 | 13.1 | 24.7 | 43.6 | ||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 5,079 | 187.9 | 279.5 | 334.0 | ||||||||||
Other structured finance | 1,672 | 13.4 | 1.6 | 58.7 | ||||||||||
Public finance | 729 | 18.4 | 33.7 | 40.7 | ||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty | $ | 7,480 | $ | 219.7 | $ | 314.8 | $ | 433.4 | ||||||
1. Includes financial guaranty and insured derivatives in the insured portfolio.
2. Includes loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) and incurred losses on credit derivatives, for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.
3. Includes loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for financial guaranty and credit derivatives, for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only. Approximately $14.3 million of expected loss is included in unearned premium reserve.
4. The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
Page 29
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Investment Portfolio
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
| Amortized Cost | Pre-Tax Book Yield | After-Tax Book Yield | Fair Value | Annualized Investment Income1 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Investment portfolio, available for sale: | ||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | $ | 320.3 | 2.4 | % | 1.6 | % | $ | 327.3 | $ | 7.7 | ||||||||
Agency obligations | 109.6 | 3.2 | % | 2.1 | % | 113.0 | 3.5 | |||||||||||
Foreign government securities | 80.6 | 3.7 | % | 2.4 | % | 84.5 | 3.0 | |||||||||||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | 486.1 | 4.9 | % | 4.6 | % | 518.5 | 23.6 | |||||||||||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions2 | 512.0 | 4.7 | % | 4.5 | % | 543.0 | 24.1 | |||||||||||
Corporate securities | 66.9 | 5.7 | % | 3.7 | % | 69.9 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
Mortgage-backed securities: | ||||||||||||||||||
Pass-throughs | 96.8 | 5.5 | % | 3.6 | % | 90.5 | 5.3 | |||||||||||
PACs | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
Asset-backed securities3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | % | 0.5 | % | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | $ | 1,672.4 | 4.3 | % | 3.6 | % | $ | 1,746.8 | $ | 71.1 | ||||||||
Short-term investments | 226.8 | 0.2 | % | 0.1 | % | 226.8 | 0.4 | |||||||||||
Total investment portfolio | $ | 1,899.2 | 3.8 | % | 3.2 | % | $ | 1,973.6 | $ | 71.5 | ||||||||
Ratings4: | Fair Value | % of Total | | | | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Treasury and government obligations | $ | 327.3 | 18.7 | % | |||||||||||||
Agency obligations | 113.0 | 6.5 | % | ||||||||||||||
AAA/Aaa | 273.7 | 15.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
AA/Aa | 715.9 | 41.0 | % | ||||||||||||||
A/A | 284.8 | 16.3 | % | ||||||||||||||
BBB | 21.6 | 1.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
Below investment grade | 10.5 | 0.6 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | $ | 1,746.8 | 100.0 | % | |||||||||||||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||
1. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average AA-. Includes $131.2 million insured by Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
3. Contains no CDOs of ABS.
4. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's classifications.
Page 30
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)
| | Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Statutory Data | ||||||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (150.4 | ) | $ | 27.7 | $ | 71.6 | $ | 64.3 | |||||||
Policyholders' surplus | 179.0 | 378.1 | 399.6 | 286.0 | ||||||||||||
Contingency reserve | 772.0 | 712.2 | 582.5 | 630.9 | ||||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 951.0 | 1,090.3 | 982.0 | 916.8 | ||||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 838.1 | 570.3 | 302.3 | 238.9 | ||||||||||||
Loss and LAE reserves | 209.1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 15.2 | ||||||||||||
Total policyholders' surplus & reserves | 1,998.2 | 1,675.3 | 1,296.8 | 1,170.9 | ||||||||||||
Present value of installment premiume | 639.2 | 565.6 | 553.6 | 355.6 | ||||||||||||
Standby line of credit / stop loss | 200.0 | 200.0 | 280.0 | 455.0 | ||||||||||||
Total claims-paying resources | $ | 2,837.4 | $ | 2,440.9 | $ | 2,130.4 | $ | 1,981.5 | ||||||||
Statutory Financial Ratios | ||||||||||||||||
Loss and LAE ratio | 235.7 | % | 90.3 | % | (13.5 | )% | 4.5 | % | ||||||||
Expense ratio | 10.3 | % | 11.5 | % | 49.9 | % | 64.8 | % | ||||||||
Combined ratio | 246.0 | % | 101.8 | % | 36.4 | % | 69.3 | % | ||||||||
Other Financial Information : | ||||||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | $ | 183,396 | $ | 164,283 | $ | 128,351 | $ | 85,522 | ||||||||
Net par outstanding (end of period) | 128,854 | 111,025 | 94,127 | 68,370 | ||||||||||||
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | 178,432 | 152,801 | 127,743 | 91,858 | ||||||||||||
Par reinsured to other Assured Guaranty companies | 46,615 | 37,372 | 29,087 | 22,569 | ||||||||||||
Ratios: | ||||||||||||||||
Net par insured to statutory capital | 135:1 | 102:1 | 75:1 | 75:1 | ||||||||||||
Capital ratio1 | 193:1 | 151:1 | 93:1 | 93:1 | ||||||||||||
Financial resources ratio2 | 65:1 | 67:1 | 43:1 | 43:1 | ||||||||||||
Gross debt service written: | ||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 69,341 | $ | 56,865 | $ | 8,142 | $ | 3,440 | ||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 521 | 771 | $ | 5,202 | 7,402 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 1,212 | 13,228 | 35,396 | 26,848 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | 5,265 | 10,061 | 5,843 | ||||||||||||
Total gross debt service written | $ | 71,074 | $ | 76,128 | $ | 58,801 | $ | 43,533 | ||||||||
1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)]
Page 31
Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 10-K report.
Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.
Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by either prime, Alt-A, or subprime first and second lien mortgages. Alt-A Option ARMs: includes transactions where 66% or more of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that have the potential to negatively amortize. Alt-A First Lien: includes all transactions, other than Alt-A Option ARM transactions, where more than 50% of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that were originated with less than full documentation.
Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities.
Commercial receivables: includes equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings and franchise loans.
Structured credit: includes whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Whole business securitizations are obligations backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.
Page 32
Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
This Financial Supplement references financial measures that are not financial measures that are in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("non-GAAP financial measures") which management uses in order to assist analysts and investors in evaluating Assured Guaranty Corp.'s financial results. These non-GAAP financial measures are defined below. In each case, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and GAAP financial measure is provided. This presentation is consistent with how Assured Guaranty Corp.'s management, analysts and investors evaluate Assured Guaranty Corp.'s financial results and is comparable to estimates published by analysts in their research reports on Assured Guaranty Corp.
(a) PVP or present value of new business: PVP is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% for September 30, 2009 and 6% for December 31, 2008. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty Corp. by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives ("Credit Derivative Revenues") do not adequately measure. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at the approximate taxable equivalent yield per year on the Company's general investment portfolio, while under ASC 944-20, "Financial Services - Insurance," these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under ASC 944-20 management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not result from changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refundings, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors that management cannot control or predict. PVP should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.
(b) Operating income: Operating incomeis a non-GAAP financial measure defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. adjusted for the following:
1) Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments;
2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which are unrealized gains (losses) other than the Company's net estimate of after-tax incurred economic credit losses for credit derivatives;
3) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities; and
4) Elimination of goodwill impairment.
Management believes that operating income is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of the Company's results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of its business. Realized gains (losses) on investments, non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded because these gains (losses) are heavily influenced by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income (loss) determined in accordance with GAAP.
(c) Operating shareholder's equity ("Operating Shareholder's Equity"): Operating shareholder's equity is a non-GAAP financial measure calculated as shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. reported under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP), adjusted for the following fair value adjustments deemed to be unrelated to credit impairment. The specific adjustments are:
1) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives which are unrealized gains (losses) other than the present value of estimated economic credit losses;
2) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities; and
3) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on investment portfolios, recorded as a component of accumulated comprehensive income, excluding foreign exchange revaluation.
Management believes that operating shareholder's equity is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating ROE enhances the understanding of the Company's shareholder's equity excluding unrealized gains (losses) on investments, non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities, which are heavily influenced by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. determined in accordance with GAAP.
Operating return on equity ("Operating ROE"): Operating ROE represents operating income for the specified period divided by the average of operating shareholder's equity at the beginning and the end of the specified period. Management believes that Operating ROE is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of Operating ROE enhance the understanding of the Company's return on shareholder's equity by highlighting the underlying profitability relative to shareholder's equity excluding the effect of unrealized gains and losses on the Company's investment portfolio, credit derivatives and committed capital securities for both net income and shareholder's equity. Realized gains (losses) on investments, non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded because these gains (losses) are heavily influenced by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as substitutes for ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.
(d) Adjusted Book Value: Subsequent to the adoption of ASC 944-20 on January 1, 2009, adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is calculated as shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. less after-tax fair value adjustments deemed to be non-economic, plus after-tax unearned premium reserves net of prepaid reinsurance and deferred acquisition costs, plus the after-tax present value of estimated future revenues on contracts written in credit derivative contract form. The specific adjustments to shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. are:
1) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives other than the present value of estimated economic credit losses;
2) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities;
3) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on investment portfolios, recorded as a component of accumulated comprehensive income, excluding foreign exchange revaluation,
4) Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs,
5) Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force, less future ceding commissions and premium taxes, discounted at 6% for September 30, 2009 and 6% for December 31, 2008;
6) Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, net of prepaid reinsurance premiums; and
7) Addition of the after-tax value of unearned premium reserve on credit derivatives net of prepaid reinsurance.
Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in force premiums and shareholder's equity. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. determined in accordance with GAAP.
(e) Net present value of estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force: Net present value of estimated installment premiums on credit derivatives in force is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as the present value of estimated future revenue from our credit derivative in-force books of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6% for September 30, 2009 and 6% for December 31, 2008. Management believes that net present value of estimated future revenue in force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.
(f) Expense Ratio: Expense ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of ceding commissions expense (income), profit commission expense, acquisition costs and operating expenses by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives.
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Contacts: | ||
Equity Investors: Sabra Purtill Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 408-6044 spurtill@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Ross Aron Associate, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Fixed Income Investors: | ||
Assured Guaranty Corp. | Robert Tucker | |
31 West 52nd Street | Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations | |
New York, NY 10019 | (212) 339-0861 | |
(212) 974-0100 | rtucker@assuredguaranty.com | |
www.assuredguaranty.com | ||
Michael Walker Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 261-5575 mwalker@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Media: Betsy Castenir Managing Director, Corporate Communications (212) 339-3424 bcastenir@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Corp. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated Balance Sheets (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Capital and Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated Income Statements (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Detailed Income Statement (Non-GAAP) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. New Business Production (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consumer Receivables Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Credit Derivative Exposure Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. 50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. 50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. 10 Largest Healthcare and Non-U.S. Exposures As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. 10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 2) As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 2) As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Surveillance Categories (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment and Type of Reserve (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Investment Portfolio As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Summary Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions)
Glossary