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Exhibit 99.1
Assured Guaranty Corp. ("AGC")
December 31, 2009
Financial Supplement
Table of Contents | Page | |
---|---|---|
Selected Financial Highlights | 1 | |
Income Statements (Non-GAAP Presentation) | 2 | |
Consolidated Balance Sheets | 3 | |
Underwriting Gain (Loss) (Non-GAAP) | 4 | |
Claims Paying Resources and Statutory-basis Exposures | 5 | |
New Business Production | 6 | |
Investment Portfolio | 7 | |
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer | 8 | |
Financial Guaranty Profile | 9-11 | |
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile | 12 | |
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile | 13 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile | 14-17 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. CMBS Profile | 18 | |
Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile | 19 | |
Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile | 20 | |
Change in Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps | 21 | |
Below Investment Grade Exposures | 22-23 | |
Largest Exposure by Sector | 24-27 | |
Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories | 28 | |
Gross Loss and LAE Reserves by Type | 29 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid | 30-32 | |
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data | 33 | |
Glossary | 34 | |
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 35 |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty" or the "Company") with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009. For the purposes of this supplement, all references to the "Company" shall mean AGC.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: |
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade of Assured Guaranty or its affiliates and/or of transactions insured by Assured Guaranty or its affiliates, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, Assured Guaranty's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world's credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses affecting the adequacy of Assured Guaranty's loss reserves; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of reinsurance portfolio opportunities available to Assured Guaranty; (7) decreased demand or increased competition; (8) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (9) changes in applicable laws or regulation, including insurance and tax laws; (10) other governmental actions; (11) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty's business strategy; (12) contract cancellations; (13) Assured Guaranty's dependence on customers; (14) loss of key personnel; (15) adverse technological developments; (16) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (17) natural or man-made catastrophes; (18) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (19) management's response to these factors; and (20) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. |
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended December 31, | | Year Ended December 31, | | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 4Q-08 | % Change versus YTD 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | ||||||||||||||||
Operating income reconciliation: | ||||||||||||||||||||
Operating income (loss)b | $ | (37.0 | ) | $ | (8.7 | ) | 325 | % | $ | (127.2 | ) | $ | 18.5 | NM | ||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax | (2.1 | ) | (6.6 | ) | (68 | )% | 1.9 | (9.5 | ) | NM | ||||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairments fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (58.8 | ) | (105.2 | ) | (44 | )% | (165.3 | ) | 98.0 | NM | ||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax | (3.2 | ) | 12.0 | NM | (30.6 | ) | 27.8 | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill impairment | - | - | NM | (85.4 | ) | - | NM | |||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | (101.1 | ) | $ | (108.5 | ) | (7 | )% | $ | (406.6 | ) | $ | 134.8 | NM | ||||||
Earned premiums from refundings | $ | 6.4 | $ | 7.2 | (11 | )% | $ | 53.8 | $ | 14.4 | 274 | % | ||||||||
Operating income effect | $ | 2.5 | $ | 3.1 | (19 | )% | $ | 34.0 | $ | 5.9 | 476 | % | ||||||||
| As of December 31, | | | | | |||||||||||||||
| % Change versus 12/31/2008 | | | | ||||||||||||||||
Adjusted book value reconciliation: | 2009 | 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||
Book value (GAAP shareholder's equity)1 | $ | 1,226.2 | $ | 1,046.0 | 17 | % | ||||||||||||||
Less: Non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (380.7 | ) | (215.4 | ) | 77 | % | ||||||||||||||
Less: Unrealized gains on committed capital securities, after tax | 2.6 | 33.2 | (92 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect, after tax | 27.6 | (6.9 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||||||
Operating shareholder's equity | $ | 1,576.7 | $ | 1,235.1 | 28 | % | ||||||||||||||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs, after tax | 29.3 | 51.3 | (43 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative revenue, after taxe,2 | 244.8 | 378.2 | (35 | )% | ||||||||||||||||
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax | 651.3 | 326.0 | 100 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Adjusted book valued | $ | 2,443.5 | $ | 1,888.0 | 29 | % | ||||||||||||||
Return on equity ("ROE") calculations3: | ||||||||||||||||||||
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio | (41.6 | )% | (38.9 | )% | (36.1 | )% | 14.2 | % | ||||||||||||
Operating ROEc | (11.2 | )% | (2.8 | )% | (9.0 | )% | 1.5 | % |
1. The Company adopted new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard, effective January 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting standard had an effect of $9.8 million on January 1, 2009 book value.
2. Includes unearned revenue less ceded unearned premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.
3. Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized fourth quarter ROE.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and operating ROE (c), adjusted book value (d), and net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force (e)].
NM = Not meaningful
Page 1
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Income Statements (Non-GAAP Presentation)
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended December 31, | | Year Ended December 31, | | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 4Q-08 | % Change versus YTD 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||||||||
Revenues | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums1: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned direct premiums | $ | 20.9 | $ | 19.0 | 10 | % | $ | 72.7 | $ | 63.2 | 15 | % | |||||||||
Scheduled net earned reinsurance premiums | 3.6 | 3.0 | 20 | % | 12.2 | 14.4 | (15 | )% | |||||||||||||
Refundings | 6.4 | 7.2 | (11 | )% | 53.8 | 14.4 | 274 | % | |||||||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 30.9 | 29.2 | 6 | % | 138.7 | 92.0 | 51 | % | |||||||||||||
Net investment income | 18.3 | 19.8 | (8 | )% | 76.6 | 73.2 | 5 | % | |||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives2 | 21.5 | 20.6 | 4 | % | 88.9 | 87.9 | 1 | % | |||||||||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives | (61.4 | ) | (14.8 | ) | 315 | % | (230.6 | ) | (24.9 | ) | 826 | % | |||||||||
Other Income | 0.8 | 0.2 | 300 | % | 5.4 | 0.6 | 800 | % | |||||||||||||
Total operating revenues | 10.1 | 55.0 | (82 | )% | 79.0 | 228.8 | (65 | )% | |||||||||||||
Expenses | |||||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses1 | 47.4 | 57.2 | (17 | )% | 193.0 | 149.5 | 29 | % | |||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs1 | 3.8 | 6.5 | (42 | )% | 6.7 | 18.6 | (64 | )% | |||||||||||||
Other operating expenses | 19.9 | 9.8 | 103 | % | 86.8 | 54.9 | 58 | % | |||||||||||||
Interest expense | 0.5 | - | NM | 0.5 | - | NM | |||||||||||||||
Total operating expenses | 71.6 | 73.5 | (3 | )% | 287.0 | 223.0 | 29 | % | |||||||||||||
Operating income (loss) before provision (benefit) for income taxes | (61.5 | ) | (18.5 | ) | 232 | % | (208.0 | ) | 5.8 | NM | |||||||||||
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes | (24.5 | ) | (9.8 | ) | 150 | % | (80.8 | ) | (12.7 | ) | 536 | % | |||||||||
Operating income (loss)b | (37.0 | ) | (8.7 | ) | 325 | % | (127.2 | ) | 18.5 | NM | |||||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax | (2.1 | ) | (6.6 | ) | (68 | )% | 1.9 | (9.5 | ) | NM | |||||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairments fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (58.8 | ) | (105.2 | ) | (44 | )% | (165.3 | ) | 98.0 | NM | |||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains on committed capital securities, after tax | (3.2 | ) | 12.0 | NM | (30.6 | ) | 27.8 | NM | |||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill impairment | - | - | NM | (85.4 | ) | - | NM | ||||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | (101.1 | ) | $ | (108.5 | ) | (7 | )% | $ | (406.6 | ) | $ | 134.8 | NM | |||||||
1. The Company adopted new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard, effective January 1, 2009.
2. Represents the revenue earned on credit derivatives included in the "realized gains and other settlements" line item on the statements of operations.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].
NM = Not meaningful
Page 2
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| As of | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2009 | December 31, 2008 | |||||||
Assets | |||||||||
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: | |||||||||
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | $ | 2,045.2 | $ | 1,511.3 | |||||
Short-term investments | 802.6 | 110.0 | |||||||
Total investment portfolio | 2,847.8 | 1,621.3 | |||||||
Cash | 2.5 | 7.8 | |||||||
Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable1 | 351.4 | 12.4 | |||||||
Ceded unearned premium reserve1 | 435.3 | 206.5 | |||||||
Deferred acquisition costs1 | 45.2 | 79.0 | |||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses1 | 50.7 | 13.4 | |||||||
Credit derivative assets | 252.0 | 139.5 | |||||||
Goodwill | - | 85.4 | |||||||
Committed capital securities, at fair value | 4.0 | 51.1 | |||||||
Deferred tax asset, net1 | 241.8 | 110.3 | |||||||
Salvage recoverable1 | 169.9 | 70.9 | |||||||
Other assets | 99.2 | 56.9 | |||||||
Total assets | $ | 4,499.8 | $ | 2,454.5 | |||||
Liabilities and shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Liabilities | |||||||||
Unearned premium reserves1 | $ | 1,451.6 | $ | 708.0 | |||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve1 | 191.2 | 133.7 | |||||||
Surplus notes payable | 300.0 | - | |||||||
Credit derivative liabilities | 1,076.7 | 481.0 | |||||||
Reinsurance balances payable, net1 | 166.0 | 23.7 | |||||||
Other liabilities | 88.1 | 62.1 | |||||||
Total liabilities | 3,273.6 | 1,408.5 | |||||||
Shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Common stock | 15.0 | 15.0 | |||||||
Additional paid-in capital | 1,037.1 | 480.4 | |||||||
Retained earnings1,2 | 153.7 | 561.5 | |||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)2 | 20.4 | (10.9 | ) | ||||||
Total shareholder's equity | 1,226.2 | 1,046.0 | |||||||
Total liabilities and shareholder's equity | $ | 4,499.8 | $ | 2,454.5 | |||||
1. The Company adopted new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard, effective January 1, 2009.
2. The Company adopted new accounting standard, effective April 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting standard increased retained earnings and decreased accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) by $5.8 million.
Page 3
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Underwriting Gain (Loss) (Non-GAAP)
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended December 31, | Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||
Income statement: | |||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums1: | |||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums | |||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 14.0 | $ | 8.9 | $ | 41.3 | $ | 32.0 | |||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 9.0 | 11.5 | 37.5 | 38.8 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | |||||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums | 24.5 | 22.0 | 84.9 | 77.6 | |||||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations | 6.4 | 7.2 | 53.8 | 14.4 | |||||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 30.9 | 29.2 | 138.7 | 92.0 | |||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives2 | 21.5 | 20.6 | 88.9 | 87.9 | |||||||||||
Other income | 0.8 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
Total underwriting revenues | 53.2 | 50.0 | 233.0 | 180.5 | |||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses1: | |||||||||||||||
Case | 47.4 | 62.6 | 193.0 | 155.6 | |||||||||||
Portfolio | - | (5.4 | ) | - | (6.1 | ) | |||||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty | 47.4 | 57.2 | 193.0 | 149.5 | |||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives | 61.4 | 14.8 | 230.6 | 24.9 | |||||||||||
Total incurred losses | 108.8 | 72.0 | 423.6 | 174.4 | |||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs1 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 18.6 | |||||||||||
Operating expenses | 14.6 | 8.1 | 57.8 | 49.2 | |||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses | 127.2 | 86.6 | 488.1 | 242.2 | |||||||||||
Underwriting gain (loss), pre-tax | $ | (74.0 | ) | $ | (36.6 | ) | $ | (255.1 | ) | $ | (61.7 | ) | |||
1. The Company adopted new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard, effective January 1, 2009.
2. Includes premiums and ceding commissions.
Page 4
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Claims Paying Resources and Statutory-basis Exposures2
(dollars in millions)
| As of December 31, | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | |||||||
Claims paying resources | |||||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 1,224 | $ | 378 | |||||
Contingency reserve | 556 | 712 | |||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 1,780 | 1,090 | |||||||
Net unearned premium reserve | 887 | 570 | |||||||
Net loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | 398 | 15 | |||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves2 | 3,065 | 1,675 | |||||||
Net present value of installment premium1 | 612 | 566 | |||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 200 | 200 | |||||||
Total claims paying resources | $ | 3,877 | $ | 2,441 | |||||
Net debt service outstanding | $ | 186,606 | $ | 164,283 | |||||
Gross debt service outstanding | 259,867 | 225,152 | |||||||
Net par insured outstanding | 130,468 | 111,025 | |||||||
Gross par outstanding | 180,765 | 152,801 | |||||||
Net debt service written (period ended) | 54,786 | 53,989 | |||||||
Gross debt service written (period ended) | 81,014 | 76,128 | |||||||
Net par written (period ended) | 31,367 | 33,680 | |||||||
Gross par written (period ended) | 46,633 | 47,567 | |||||||
Ratios: | |||||||||
Net par insured to qualified statutory capital | 73:1 | 102:1 | |||||||
Capital ratio3 | 105:1 | 151:1 | |||||||
Financial resources ratio4 | 48:1 | 67:1 |
1. Includes financial guaranty and credit derivatives.
2. Statutory basis.
3. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
4. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.
Page 5
Assured Guaranty Corp.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended December 31, | Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||
Consolidated new business production analysis: | |||||||||||||||
Present value of new business production ("PVP")a | |||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 96.1 | $ | 57.3 | $ | 583.3 | $ | 431.6 | |||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | - | - | 1.8 | 9.0 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 4.7 | 49.9 | 21.3 | 187.6 | |||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | 14.7 | - | 72.5 | |||||||||||
Total PVPa | 100.8 | 121.9 | 606.4 | 700.7 | |||||||||||
Less: PVPa of credit derivatives | - | 57.7 | 2.4 | 201.5 | |||||||||||
PVPa of financial guaranty insurance | 100.8 | 64.2 | 604.0 | 499.2 | |||||||||||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVPa | 18.8 | 6.8 | 52.1 | 76.8 | |||||||||||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP | 82.0 | 57.4 | 551.9 | 422.4 | |||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment adjustment1 | (10.8 | ) | 12.7 | 25.0 | 64.0 | ||||||||||
Total financial guaranty GWP | 71.2 | 70.1 | 576.9 | 486.4 | |||||||||||
Plus: Other segment GWP | - | - | - | 0.2 | |||||||||||
Total GWP | $ | 71.2 | $ | 70.1 | $ | 576.9 | $ | 486.6 | |||||||
| Gross Par Written | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Ended December 31, | Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||
Sector: | |||||||||||||||
U.S. Public Finance | |||||||||||||||
Tax backed | $ | 1,811 | $ | 1,253 | $ | 16,006 | $ | 8,307 | |||||||
General obligation | 1,548 | 1,583 | 14,525 | 6,538 | |||||||||||
Municipal utilities | 669 | 302 | 5,429 | 4,901 | |||||||||||
Transportation | 171 | 615 | 2,617 | 3,502 | |||||||||||
Higher education | 398 | 216 | 2,399 | 1,755 | |||||||||||
Healthcare | 218 | 673 | 1,589 | 3,659 | |||||||||||
Investor-owned utilities | - | - | - | 80 | |||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | 426 | - | 1,281 | 547 | |||||||||||
Other public finance | - | 110 | 247 | 1,419 | |||||||||||
Total U.S. public finance | $ | 5,241 | $ | 4,752 | $ | 44,093 | $ | 30,708 | |||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | - | - | 64 | - | |||||||||||
Regulated utilities | - | - | 121 | 450 | |||||||||||
Other public finance | - | - | 131 | - | |||||||||||
Total non-U.S public finance | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 316 | $ | 450 | |||||||
Total public finance | $ | 5,241 | $ | 4,752 | $ | 44,409 | $ | 31,158 | |||||||
U.S. Structured Finance | |||||||||||||||
Consumer receivables | $ | 850 | $ | - | $ | 1,660 | $ | 1,825 | |||||||
Commercial receivables | - | - | 164 | 693 | |||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | - | 1,026 | - | 3,684 | |||||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | - | - | - | 3,034 | |||||||||||
Structured credit | - | 1,000 | - | 2,850 | |||||||||||
Other structured finance | 400 | - | 400 | - | |||||||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | $ | 1,250 | $ | 2,026 | $ | 2,224 | $ | 12,086 | |||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | - | 359 | - | 977 | |||||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | - | - | - | 3,096 | |||||||||||
Future flow | - | - | - | 250 | |||||||||||
Total non-U.S structured finance | $ | - | $ | 359 | $ | - | $ | 4,323 | |||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 1,250 | $ | 2,385 | $ | 2,224 | $ | 16,409 | |||||||
Total gross par written | $ | 6,491 | $ | 7,137 | $ | 46,633 | $ | 47,567 | |||||||
1. 2009 amounts include the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments compared to the discount rate used for new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard as well as the changes in estimated term for future installments.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a)].
Page 6
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Investment Portfolio
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
| Amortized Cost | Pre-Tax Book Yield | After-Tax Book Yield | Fair Value | Annualized Investment Income1 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment portfolio, available for sale: | ||||||||||||||||||
Fixed maturity securities: | ||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | $ | 320.3 | 2.4 | % | 1.6 | % | $ | 324.1 | $ | 7.7 | ||||||||
Agency obligations | 125.4 | 3.0 | % | 2.0 | % | 127.4 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
Foreign government securities | 77.1 | 3.7 | % | 2.4 | % | 79.7 | 2.8 | |||||||||||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | 513.9 | 4.9 | % | 4.6 | % | 534.7 | 25.0 | |||||||||||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions2 | 504.3 | 4.7 | % | 4.5 | % | 524.4 | 23.7 | |||||||||||
Corporate securities | 182.2 | 3.6 | % | 2.4 | % | 183.3 | 6.6 | |||||||||||
Mortgage-backed securities: | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Pass-throughs5 | 262.7 | 3.7 | % | 2.4 | % | 254.9 | 9.7 | |||||||||||
Asset-backed securities3 | 16.8 | 2.3 | % | 1.5 | % | 16.7 | 0.4 | |||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | 2,002.7 | 4.0 | % | 3.3 | % | 2,045.2 | 79.7 | |||||||||||
Short-term investments | 802.6 | 0.1 | % | 0.1 | % | 802.6 | 0.7 | |||||||||||
Total investment portfolio | $ | 2,805.3 | 2.9 | % | 2.4 | % | $ | 2,847.8 | $ | 80.4 | ||||||||
Ratings4: | Fair Value | % of Total | | | | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Treasury and government obligations | $ | 324.1 | 15.8 | % | |||||||||||||
Agency obligations | 127.4 | 6.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
AAA/Aaa | 610.8 | 29.9 | % | ||||||||||||||
AA/Aa | 565.7 | 27.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
A/A | 363.0 | 17.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
BBB | 20.3 | 1.0 | % | ||||||||||||||
Below investment grade ("BIG")5 | 33.9 | 1.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | $ | 2,045.2 | 100.0 | % | |||||||||||||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||
1. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields as of December 31, 2009.
2. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average AA-. Includes $128.9 million insured by Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
3. Contains no collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities ("CDOs of ABS").
4. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's classifications.
5. Includes $28.4 million which the Company purchased for risk mitigation purposes.
Page 7
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer
(dollars in millions)
Reinsurer | Ceded Par Outstanding | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Affiliated: | |||||||
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. | $ | 46,411 | |||||
Non-Affiliated: | |||||||
RAM Reinsurance Co. Ltd. | 3,219 | ||||||
MBIA Insurance Corporation | 241 | ||||||
Radian Asset Assurance Inc. | 182 | ||||||
Ambac Assurance Corporation | 110 | ||||||
Other | 134 | ||||||
Non-affiliated | 3,886 | ||||||
Total | $ | 50,297 | |||||
Page 8
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| As of December 31, | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | ||||||
| Net Par Outstanding | Avg. Rating1 | |||||
| |||||||
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
General obligation | $ | 25,300 | A | ||||
Tax backed | 12,295 | A | |||||
Municipal utilities | 9,537 | A- | |||||
Transportation | 6,898 | A | |||||
Healthcare | 5,493 | A | |||||
Higher education | 3,500 | A | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 1,181 | BBB | |||||
Investor-owned utilities | 688 | BBB+ | |||||
Housing | 366 | AA+ | |||||
Other public finance | 1,865 | A | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 67,123 | A | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
Pooled infrastructure | 2,515 | AA | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 1,381 | BBB | |||||
Regulated utilities | 1,158 | BBB+ | |||||
Other public finance | 521 | AA- | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 5,575 | A | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 72,698 | A | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 22,880 | AA | ||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 11,212 | BBB- | |||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 5,767 | AAA | |||||
Consumer receivables | 2,988 | AAA | |||||
Structured credit | 1,380 | A- | |||||
Commercial receivables | 1,020 | BBB+ | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 255 | A | |||||
Other structured finance | 544 | A+ | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 46,046 | AA- | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 7,241 | AAA | |||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 2,438 | AAA | |||||
Commercial receivables | 734 | A- | |||||
Structured credit | 525 | BBB | |||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 359 | AAA | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 278 | CCC- | |||||
Other structured finance | 149 | AAA | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 11,724 | AA+ | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 57,770 | AA- | ||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 130,468 | A+ | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 9
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
| As of December 31, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance - U.S. | Public Finance - non-U.S. | Structured Finance - U.S. | Structured Finance - non-U.S. | Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ratings1: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior | $ | - | 0.0 | % | $ | 1,587 | 28.5 | % | $ | 9,976 | 21.7 | % | $ | 4,339 | 37.0 | % | $ | 15,902 | 12.2 | % | ||||||||||||
AAA | 667 | 1.0 | % | - | 0.0 | % | 14,961 | 32.5 | % | 4,398 | 37.5 | % | 20,026 | 15.3 | % | |||||||||||||||||
AA | 12,328 | 18.4 | % | 354 | 6.3 | % | 4,691 | 10.2 | % | 545 | 4.6 | % | 17,918 | 13.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||
A | 42,809 | 63.8 | % | 1,808 | 32.4 | % | 3,001 | 6.5 | % | 511 | 4.4 | % | 48,129 | 36.9 | % | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 10,705 | 15.9 | % | 1,721 | 30.9 | % | 6,188 | 13.4 | % | 1,652 | 14.1 | % | 20,266 | 15.5 | % | |||||||||||||||||
BIG | 614 | 0.9 | % | 105 | 1.9 | % | 7,229 | 15.7 | % | 279 | 2.4 | % | 8,227 | 6.4 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 67,123 | 100.0 | % | $ | 5,575 | 100.0 | % | $ | 46,046 | 100.0 | % | $ | 11,724 | 100.0 | % | $ | 130,468 | 100.0 | % | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 10
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of December 31, 2009
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.: | |||||||||
Public Finance: | |||||||||
California | $ | 7,974 | 6.1 | % | |||||
Texas | 6,533 | 5.0 | |||||||
New York | 5,095 | 3.9 | |||||||
Florida | 4,776 | 3.7 | |||||||
Pennsylvania | 4,496 | 3.4 | |||||||
Illinois | 3,904 | 3.0 | |||||||
New Jersey | 2,844 | 2.2 | |||||||
Puerto Rico | 2,010 | 1.5 | |||||||
Michigan | 1,930 | 1.5 | |||||||
Alabama | 1,822 | 1.4 | |||||||
Other states | 25,739 | 19.7 | |||||||
Total Public Finance | 67,123 | 51.4 | |||||||
Structured finance(multiple states) | 46,046 | 35.3 | |||||||
Total U.S. | 113,169 | 86.7 | |||||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||||
United Kingdom | 7,867 | 6.0 | |||||||
Australia | 1,422 | 1.1 | |||||||
Germany | 1,018 | 0.8 | |||||||
Cayman Islands | 738 | 0.6 | |||||||
Other | 6,254 | 4.8 | |||||||
Total non-U.S. | 17,299 | 13.3 | |||||||
Net par outstanding | $ | 130,468 | 100.0 | % | |||||
Page 11
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Rating as of December 31, 2009
Ratings1: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super Senior | $ | 6,773 | 22.9 | % | 38.0 | % | 36.2 | % | ||||||||
AAA | 14,783 | 49.9 | % | 33.5 | % | 30.4 | % | |||||||||
AA | 3,089 | 10.4 | % | 36.0 | % | 28.1 | % | |||||||||
A | 717 | 2.4 | % | 43.9 | % | 39.9 | % | |||||||||
BBB | 2,695 | 9.1 | % | 46.0 | % | 36.3 | % | |||||||||
BIG | 1,588 | 5.3 | % | 44.0 | % | 30.0 | % | |||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 29,645 | 100.0 | % | 36.7 | % | 32.2 | % | ||||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of December 31, 2009
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 952 | 3.2 | % | 28.9 | % | 28.1 | % | |||||||
2005 | 4,956 | 16.7 | % | 37.1 | % | 31.4 | % | ||||||||
2006 | 8,444 | 28.5 | % | 37.1 | % | 29.7 | % | ||||||||
2007 | 12,662 | 42.7 | % | 37.7 | % | 34.0 | % | ||||||||
2008 | 2,631 | 8.9 | % | 33.1 | % | 34.4 | % | ||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
$ | 29,645 | 100.0 | % | 36.7 | % | 32.2 | % | ||||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of December 31, 2009
Asset class: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | Internal Rating1 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLOs/CBOs3 | $ | 19,326 | 65.2 | % | 34.3 | % | 29.6 | % | AAA | ||||||
Market value CDOs4 of corporates | 3,372 | 11.4 | % | 37.7 | % | 40.7 | % | AAA | |||||||
Trust preferred - banks and insurance | 2,797 | 9.4 | % | 46.9 | % | 35.1 | % | BBB | |||||||
Trust preferred - US mortgage and REITs5 | 1,871 | 6.3 | % | 50.1 | % | 42.3 | % | BB | |||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate | 1,647 | 5.6 | % | 30.0 | % | 29.4 | % | AAA | |||||||
Trust preferred - European mortgage and REITs | 632 | 2.1 | % | 37.4 | % | 33.7 | % | BBB- | |||||||
$ | 29,645 | 100.0 | % | 36.7 | % | 32.2 | % | AA+ | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
3. CBOs (collateralized bond obligations) /CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) are largely non-investment grade/high yield collateral.
4. CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.
5. REITs are real estate investment trusts.
Page 12
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2009
Ratings1: | Prime First Lien | Closed End Seconds ("CES") | HELOC2 | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 285 | $ | 285 | ||||||||||
AAA | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 698 | 728 | |||||||||||||||||
AA | 35 | 36 | 6 | 183 | 41 | 799 | 1,099 | |||||||||||||||||
A | 18 | 1 | 2 | 83 | 119 | 1,053 | 1,276 | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 94 | - | 20 | 1,446 | 51 | 859 | 2,469 | |||||||||||||||||
BIG | 492 | 236 | 621 | 2,437 | 930 | 640 | 5,356 | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 643 | $ | 273 | $ | 658 | $ | 4,162 | $ | 1,142 | $ | 4,334 | $ | 11,212 | ||||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2009
Year insured: | Prime First Lien | CES | HELOC | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 57 | $ | 1 | $ | 37 | $ | 45 | $ | 46 | $ | 272 | $ | 459 | ||||||||||
2005 | 119 | - | 248 | 272 | 28 | 44 | 710 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | 38 | 3,242 | 3,280 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 | 467 | 272 | 373 | 2,179 | 928 | 776 | 4,995 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | 1,666 | 102 | - | 1,768 | |||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 643 | $ | 273 | $ | 658 | $ | 4,162 | $ | 1,142 | $ | 4,334 | $ | 11,212 | ||||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of December 31, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 129 | $ | 86 | $ | 149 | $ | 77 | $ | 18 | $ | 459 | ||||||||||
2005 | - | 44 | - | 75 | 168 | 423 | 710 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 | 285 | 544 | 797 | 935 | 613 | 106 | 3,280 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 10 | 43 | 15 | 522 | 4,404 | 4,995 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | 172 | 102 | 1,089 | 405 | 1,768 | |||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 285 | $ | 728 | $ | 1,099 | $ | 1,276 | $ | 2,469 | $ | 5,356 | $ | 11,212 | ||||||||||
% of total | 2.5 | % | 6.5 | % | 9.8 | % | 11.4 | % | 22.0 | % | 47.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. Home equity line of credit ("HELOC") securitizations.
Page 13
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20091
U.S. Prime First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 119 | 63.1 | % | 5.0 | % | 0.4 | % | 5.7 | % | 6 | |||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 467 | 75.7 | % | 10.8 | % | 1.4 | % | 10.8 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 586 | 73.1 | % | 9.6 | % | 1.2 | % | 9.8 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
U.S. CES
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
2007 | 272 | 42.9 | % | 10.3 | % | 47.0 | % | 13.6 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 272 | 42.9 | % | 10.3 | % | 47.0 | % | 13.6 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 248 | 25.6 | % | 0.0 | % | 16.3 | % | 14.3 | % | 2 | |||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 373 | 49.5 | % | 0.0 | % | 27.4 | % | 11.9 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 621 | 39.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 22.9 | % | 12.8 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 272 | 52.5 | % | 11.7 | % | 1.8 | % | 14.8 | % | 13 | |||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 2,179 | 69.4 | % | 13.0 | % | 4.4 | % | 33.3 | % | 8 | ||||||||||
2008 | 1,666 | 65.5 | % | 29.2 | % | 5.5 | % | 32.2 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 4,117 | 66.7 | % | 19.5 | % | 4.6 | % | 31.6 | % | 26 | ||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding and number of transactions are based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the applicable trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size, and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned ("REO") divided by net par outstanding.
Page 14
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20091
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 28 | 28.8 | % | 26.4 | % | 2.2 | % | 26.9 | % | 1 | ||||||||
2006 | 38 | 48.3 | % | 16.7 | % | 3.5 | % | 31.9 | % | 1 | |||||||||
2007 | 928 | 71.7 | % | 14.9 | % | 5.2 | % | 36.0 | % | 6 | |||||||||
2008 | 102 | 72.4 | % | 49.7 | % | 4.0 | % | 34.6 | % | 1 | |||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 1,096 | 69.9 | % | 18.5 | % | 4.9 | % | 35.5 | % | 9 | |||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 44 | 23.5 | % | 76.8 | % | 8.9 | % | 60.9 | % | 1 | ||||||||
2006 | 3,242 | 28.2 | % | 61.1 | % | 11.1 | % | 45.7 | % | 2 | |||||||||
2007 | 776 | 43.0 | % | 32.6 | % | 15.2 | % | 52.9 | % | 4 | |||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 4,062 | 31.0 | % | 55.9 | % | 11.9 | % | 47.2 | % | 7 | |||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 15
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating1, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20092
U.S. Prime First Lien
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
AAA | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
AA | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
A | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
BBB | 94 | 63.1 | % | 3.8 | % | 0.2 | % | 3.8 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
BIG | 492 | 75.0 | % | 10.7 | % | 1.4 | % | 10.9 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
$ | 586 | 73.1 | % | 9.6 | % | 1.2 | % | 9.8 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
U.S. CES
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
AAA | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
AA | 36 | 68.3 | % | 46.6 | % | 5.3 | % | 2.8 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
A | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
BIG | 236 | 39.0 | % | 4.7 | % | 53.3 | % | 15.3 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
$ | 272 | 42.9 | % | 10.3 | % | 47.0 | % | 13.6 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
AAA | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
AA | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
A | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
BIG | 621 | 39.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 22.9 | % | 12.8 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
$ | 621 | 39.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 22.9 | % | 12.8 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
AAA | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
AA | 172 | 67.5 | % | 51.6 | % | 8.9 | % | 38.6 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
A | 75 | 37.6 | % | 27.3 | % | 3.4 | % | 23.5 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
BBB | 1,432 | 63.6 | % | 22.3 | % | 4.3 | % | 28.3 | % | 8 | ||||||||||
BIG | 2,437 | 69.3 | % | 15.3 | % | 4.6 | % | 33.3 | % | 16 | ||||||||||
$ | 4,117 | 66.7 | % | 19.5 | % | 4.6 | % | 31.6 | % | 26 | ||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
3. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
4. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
5. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
6. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 16
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (4 of 4)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating1, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20092
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
AAA | 1 | 48.4 | % | 24.8 | % | 5.4 | % | 36.6 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
AA | 7 | 48.4 | % | 24.8 | % | 5.4 | % | 36.6 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
A | 107 | 71.3 | % | 48.7 | % | 4.1 | % | 34.7 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
BBB | 51 | 42.5 | % | 20.6 | % | 2.6 | % | 27.4 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
BIG | 930 | 71.4 | % | 14.9 | % | 5.2 | % | 36.0 | % | 5 | ||||||||||
$ | 1,096 | 69.9 | % | 18.5 | % | 4.9 | % | 35.5 | % | 9 | ||||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 285 | 29.2 | % | 62.9 | % | 11.5 | % | 45.9 | % | 1 | |||||||||
AAA | 597 | 27.2 | % | 60.4 | % | 10.6 | % | 46.7 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
AA | 797 | 28.3 | % | 61.3 | % | 11.1 | % | 45.7 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
A | 946 | 28.3 | % | 60.9 | % | 11.1 | % | 45.7 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
BBB | 815 | 31.3 | % | 54.4 | % | 12.1 | % | 47.3 | % | 1 | ||||||||||
BIG | 622 | 42.7 | % | 35.7 | % | 14.9 | % | 52.5 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
$ | 4,062 | 31.0 | % | 55.9 | % | 11.9 | % | 47.2 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
3. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
4. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
5. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
6. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 17
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. CMBS Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating1, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20092
U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS")
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 3,184 | 95.8 | % | 33.4 | % | 0.1 | % | 3.9 | % | 188 | ||||||||
AAA | 401 | 76.7 | % | 23.2 | % | 0.1 | % | 1.9 | % | 7 | |||||||||
AA | 712 | 94.6 | % | 18.3 | % | 0.2 | % | 3.3 | % | 39 | |||||||||
A | 230 | 74.4 | % | 9.7 | % | 0.8 | % | 1.7 | % | 1 | |||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
BIG | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 4,528 | 92.8 | % | 28.9 | % | 0.1 | % | 3.5 | % | 235 | |||||||||
Other U.S. Commercial Real Estate and CMBS Exposures7
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement8 | Avg. Current Enhancement8 | | | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commercial Real Estate | $ | 617 | 50.4 | % | 49.3 | % | 48.2 | % | |||||||||||
CDO of CMBS9 | 606 | 49.6 | % | 29.3 | % | 43.4 | % | ||||||||||||
$ | 1,223 | 100.0 | % | 39.3 | % | 45.8 | % | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
3. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
4. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
5. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
6. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
7. Represents U.S. other CMBS not included in the table above.
8. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
9. These CDO of CMBS exposures were insured in 2003 and earlier.
Page 18
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating1 as of December 31, 2009
Rating: | Credit Cards | Student Loans | Auto | Total Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 920 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 920 | ||||||
AAA | 770 | 1,029 | 2 | 1,801 | ||||||||||
AA | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||
A | - | 158 | - | 158 | ||||||||||
BBB | - | - | 79 | 79 | ||||||||||
BIG | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||
$ | 1,690 | $ | 1,186 | $ | 82 | $ | 2,958 | |||||||
Average rating1 | AAA | AAA | BBB- | AAA | ||||||||||
Avg. initial credit enhancement2 | 34.0 | % | 20.0 | % | 22.6 | % | 28.1 | % | ||||||
Avg. current enhancement2 | 53.1 | % | 21.8 | % | 30.3 | % | 39.9 | % |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
Page 19
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Rating
| December 31, 2009 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
| |||||||||
Ratings1: | |||||||||
Super senior | $ | 1,587 | 3.3 | % | |||||
AAA | 28,728 | 59.6 | % | ||||||
AA | 3,857 | 8.0 | % | ||||||
A | 3,356 | 7.0 | % | ||||||
BBB | 5,490 | 11.4 | % | ||||||
BIG | 5,190 | 10.7 | % | ||||||
Total credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 48,208 | 100.0 | % | |||||
Distribution of Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Sector and Average Rating
| December 31, 2009 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | Average Rating1 | ||||||
| ||||||||
Public Finance: | ||||||||
U.S. public finance | $ | 16 | A | |||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 3,435 | AA- | ||||||
Total public finance | $ | 3,451 | AA- | |||||
U.S.Structured Finance: | ||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 19,954 | AA+ | |||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 8,582 | BBB | ||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 5,521 | AAA | ||||||
Commercial receivables | 497 | BBB+ | ||||||
Consumer receivables | 462 | AAA | ||||||
Structured credit | 203 | BB | ||||||
Other structured finance | 95 | BBB | ||||||
Insurance securitizations | 75 | BBB | ||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 35,389 | AA- | ||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 6,573 | AAA | ||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 2,072 | AAA | ||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities | 323 | AAA | ||||||
Structured credit | 118 | BBB | ||||||
Other structured finance | 145 | AAA | ||||||
Commercial receivables | 107 | A | ||||||
Insurance securitizations | 30 | CCC | ||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 9,368 | AAA | ||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 44,757 | AA | |||||
Total credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 48,208 | AA | |||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 20
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Change in Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type: | Net Par Outstanding | Wtd. Avg. Credit Rating2 | 4Q-09 Unrealized Gain (Loss) | 2009 Unrealized Gain (Loss) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pooled corporates1: | |||||||||||||||
CLOs/CBOs | $ | 17,312 | AAA | $ | 1.4 | $ | (58.5 | ) | |||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate | 1,647 | AAA | (0.6 | ) | 3.0 | ||||||||||
Trust preferred | 4,566 | BB+ | (10.1 | ) | (35.0 | ) | |||||||||
Market value CDOs of corporate | 3,002 | AAA | 2.7 | (5.1 | ) | ||||||||||
Other pooled corporate | - | - | - | 4.9 | |||||||||||
Total pooled corporate obligations | 26,527 | AA+ | (6.6 | ) | (90.7 | ) | |||||||||
U.S. RMBS3: | |||||||||||||||
Alt-A Option ARMs and Alt-A first lien | 4,320 | BB | (98.5 | ) | (333.8 | ) | |||||||||
Subprime first lien | 3,782 | A+ | 1.0 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
Prime first lien | 467 | BB | (8.2 | ) | (72.5 | ) | |||||||||
CES and HELOCs | 13 | AA | - | - | |||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 8,582 | BBB | (105.7 | ) | (402.5 | ) | |||||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities4 | 5,844 | AAA | (6.5 | ) | (34.2 | ) | |||||||||
Other5 | 7,255 | AA | (30.0 | ) | 46.0 | ||||||||||
Total | $ | 48,208 | AA | $ | (148.8 | ) | $ | (481.4 | ) | ||||||
1. Corporate collateralized loan obligations, market value CDOs, and trust preferred securities include all U.S. structured finance pooled corporate obligations and international pooled corporate obligations.
2. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
3. Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities.
4. Commercial mortgage-backed securities is comprised of commercial U.S. structured finance and commercial non-U.S. mortgage backed securities.
5. Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables non-U.S. residential mortgage-backed and home equity securities, and non-U.S. infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities.
Page 21
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 2)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
BIG Exposures by Asset Type: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
Municipal utilities | $ | 304 | C- | ||||
General obligation | 123 | BB | |||||
Healthcare | 104 | B+ | |||||
Tax backed | 50 | BB | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 26 | C- | |||||
Transportation | - | - | |||||
Investor-owned utilities | - | - | |||||
Housing | 2 | CCC+ | |||||
Higher education | 1 | BB+ | |||||
Other public finance | 4 | B | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 614 | CCC- | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
Infrastructure finance | 105 | CCC+ | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 105 | CCC+ | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 719 | CCC- | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | $ | 5,356 | B | ||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 1,589 | B | |||||
Structured credit | 256 | BB | |||||
Consumer receivables | 6 | BB | |||||
Other structured finance | 22 | C | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 7,229 | B | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Insurance securitizations | 279 | CCC- | |||||
Commercial receivables | - | B | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 279 | CCC- | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 7,508 | B | ||||
Total BIG net par outstanding | $ | 8,227 | B | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 22
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 2)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of December 31, 2009
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | 60+ Day Delinquencies2 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | $ | 262 | D | ||||||||||||
Detroit (City of) Michigan | 103 | BB+ | |||||||||||||
St. Barnabas Health System | 56 | BB | |||||||||||||
Total U.S. public finance | $ | 421 | |||||||||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | $ | - - | |||||||||||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
U.S. RMBS: | |||||||||||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | $ | 558 | CCC | 6.6 | % | 31.3 | % | ||||||||
Mortgageit Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 467 | BB | 10.8 | % | 10.8 | % | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 430 | B | 27.3 | % | 30.5 | % | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 405 | BB | 25.8 | % | 30.2 | % | |||||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 | 389 | BB | 12.2 | % | 30.2 | % | |||||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 A-1 | 361 | CCC | 7.8 | % | 46.1 | % | |||||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D | 355 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 12.1 | % | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 352 | B | 20.0 | % | 37.5 | % | |||||||||
AAA Trust 2007-2 | 315 | B | 39.5 | % | 53.7 | % | |||||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J CL 1-A | 202 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 15.3 | % | |||||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-OA10 | 147 | CCC | 9.9 | % | 51.8 | % | |||||||||
Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N | 113 | BB | 11.3 | % | 33.0 | % | |||||||||
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL3 | 102 | CCC | 10.9 | % | 14.6 | % | |||||||||
Taylor Bean & Whitaker 2007-2 | 96 | B | 4.7 | % | 39.5 | % | |||||||||
Mastr Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 A4 | 68 | B | 23.7 | % | 52.4 | % | |||||||||
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL2 | 56 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 14.3 | % | |||||||||
CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 | 53 | CCC | 2.6 | % | 34.4 | % | |||||||||
Total U.S. Rmbs | $ | 4,469 | |||||||||||||
Other: | |||||||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding IV, Ltd. Class A-1 | $ | 219 | CCC | 40.3 | % | ||||||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd. | 217 | B | 11.1 | % | |||||||||||
Weinstein Film Securitization | 203 | BB | N/A | ||||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd. | 185 | CCC | 36.1 | % | |||||||||||
Attentus CDO I Limited Class A-1 | 175 | BB | 37.1 | % | |||||||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XVII, Ltd. | 174 | BB | 22.4 | % | |||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. Class A-1B | 146 | CCC | 34.1 | % | |||||||||||
Attentus CDO II Limited Class A-1 | 142 | BB | 36.0 | % | |||||||||||
US Capital Funding IV, Ltd. Class A-1 | 120 | BB | 16.5 | % | |||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd. Class A-1 | 114 | CCC | 40.9 | % | |||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. Class A-1A | 70 | CCC | 34.1 | % | |||||||||||
CAPCO - Excess SIPC Excess Of Loss Reinsurance | 54 | BB | N/A | ||||||||||||
Total Other | $ | 1,819 | |||||||||||||
Total U.S. Structured Finance | $ | 6,288 | |||||||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Orkney RE II, PLC Series A-1 Floating Rate Notes | $ | 149 | CCC | N/A | |||||||||||
Ballantyne RE PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes | 130 | CC | N/A | ||||||||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | $ | 279 | |||||||||||||
Total | $ | 6,988 | |||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 23
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S Public Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California (State of) | $ | 1,040 | A | |||
Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) | 850 | BBB- | ||||
New Jersey (State of) | 733 | AA- | ||||
North Texas Tollway Authority | 728 | A- | ||||
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport | 683 | A+ | ||||
Miami-Dade County School Board | 649 | A- | ||||
Pennsylvania State Turnpike Commission | 603 | A+ | ||||
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania | 580 | BBB+ | ||||
Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority | 511 | A+ | ||||
New York (City of) New York | 504 | AA- | ||||
Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority | 503 | BBB | ||||
New York (State of) | 483 | AA- | ||||
Michigan (State of) | 468 | A+ | ||||
Piedmont Municipal Power Authority - South Carolina | 439 | BBB | ||||
San Francisco Airports Commission | 430 | A | ||||
Chicago Illinois Public Schools | 359 | A+ | ||||
Denver (City and County of) Colorado Airport | 356 | A+ | ||||
New York MTA Transportation Authority | 345 | A | ||||
Dormitory Authority of the State of New York School District Revenue Bond | 316 | A | ||||
Yankee Stadium LLC (New York City Industrial Development Authority) | 304 | BBB- | ||||
Indianapolis Indiana Waterworks Project | 304 | A+ | ||||
Chicago (City of) Illinois | 302 | A+ | ||||
Massachusetts Educational Finance Authority 2008-H | 300 | AA | ||||
Dade County Florida General Obligation | 300 | A+ | ||||
Chicago-O'Hare Airport | 297 | A | ||||
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority | 288 | BBB- | ||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) | 277 | AA | ||||
American Municipal Power Ohio, Inc. - Prarie State | 269 | A | ||||
Massachusetts Turnpike Authority | 266 | A | ||||
Kentucky (Commonwealth of) | 264 | AA- | ||||
New Jersey Higher Education Student Assistance Authority 2008-A | 263 | A | ||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | 262 | D | ||||
Long Island Power Authority | 259 | A- | ||||
Metro Washington Airports Authority - Dulles Toll Road | 256 | BBB+ | ||||
Chicago Transit Authority Capital Grant Receipts | 256 | A+ | ||||
Louisiana (State of) | 251 | A+ | ||||
Louisville Arena Authority Inc. | 245 | BBB- | ||||
Dallas (City of) Texas Civic Center Convention Complex | 244 | A | ||||
North Carolina Eastern Municipal Power Agency | 243 | BBB | ||||
Florida (State of) Department of Environmental Protection Save Our Coast | 238 | A+ | ||||
Virtua Health New Jersey Health Care Facilities Financing Authority | 221 | A | ||||
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey | 220 | AA- | ||||
Orange County Florida Schools | 216 | A+ | ||||
Nassau (County of) New York | 214 | A | ||||
District of Columbia Water and Sewer Authority | 209 | A+ | ||||
North Carolina Turnpike Authority - Triangle Expressway | 202 | BBB- | ||||
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | 200 | A- | ||||
Iowa Health System | 198 | A+ | ||||
Wayne (County of) Michigan Airport - Metropolitian Wayne County Airport | 183 | BBB+ | ||||
Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority - Sales Tax | 180 | AA | ||||
Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures | $ | 18,311 | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Page 24
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement % | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Discover Card Master Trust I Series 2005-A | $ | 720 | AAA | 57.5 | % | |||||
Citibank Omni Trust 2007-A7 | 650 | AAA | 44.0 | % | ||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 558 | CCC | 6.6 | % | ||||||
Anchorage Crossover Credit Finance LTD | 504 | AAA | 28.9 | % | ||||||
Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund Class A1 | 496 | AAA | 43.6 | % | ||||||
280 Funding I - Class A-2 Revolver | 495 | AAA | 37.8 | % | ||||||
MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 467 | BB | 10.8 | % | ||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 437 | BBB- | 24.4 | % | ||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 430 | B | 27.3 | % | ||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 405 | BB | 25.8 | % | ||||||
Private Structured Credit Transaction | 400 | BBB+ | N/A | |||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 400 | BBB | 25.3 | % | ||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 | 389 | BB | 12.2 | % | ||||||
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007-A | 375 | AAA | 11.3 | % | ||||||
KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 | 369 | AAA | 46.5 | % | ||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 A-1 | 361 | CCC | 7.8 | % | ||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D | 355 | CCC | 0.0 | % | ||||||
Applebees Enterprises LLC | 352 | BBB- | N/A | |||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 352 | B | 20.0 | % | ||||||
Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited Class A-1-A | 338 | AA | 28.0 | % | ||||||
SLM Student Loan Trust 2007-6 | 333 | AAA | 6.5 | % | ||||||
Liberty CLO Ltd Series Class A-1C | 324 | AAA | 33.5 | % | ||||||
AAA Trust 2007-2 | 315 | B | 39.5 | % | ||||||
CDX.NA.IG.4 5-YR 30-100% | 315 | AAA | 29.4 | % | ||||||
CDX.NA.IG.4 7-YR 30-100% | 315 | AAA | 29.4 | % | ||||||
CDX.NA.IG.4 7-YR 30-100% | 315 | AAA | 29.4 | % | ||||||
Symphony Credit Opportunities Fund | 308 | AAA | 22.6 | % | ||||||
Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund Class A2 | 307 | AAA | 43.6 | % | ||||||
Wasatch CLO, Ltd. A1B | 273 | AAA | 20.8 | % | ||||||
Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G | 273 | AAA | 26.3 | % | ||||||
CDX.NA.IG.8 5-YR 30-100% | 272 | AAA | 29.4 | % | ||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XIV | 271 | BBB- | 33.0 | % | ||||||
Cent CDO XI Limited | 270 | AAA | 21.5 | % | ||||||
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C | 267 | AAA | 10.6 | % | ||||||
HSAM Long/Short 2007-2 | 255 | AAA | 26.7 | % | ||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 252 | BBB | 34.0 | % | ||||||
Babcock & Brown Air Funding I Ltd. Series 2007-1 | 247 | A- | N/A | |||||||
Kodiak CDO II | 241 | AA | 52.7 | % | ||||||
Field Point III, Limited Class A1 | 236 | AA- | 19.9 | % | ||||||
Sandelman Finance 2006-2, Ltd. | 235 | AAA | 32.4 | % | ||||||
Newstar Credit Opportunities Funding II Ltd CL A1T | 231 | AA | 20.1 | % | ||||||
United Commercial Mortgage Securities 2007-1 | 230 | A | 9.7 | % | ||||||
MAC Capital, Ltd. Class A-1L | 230 | AA | 25.6 | % | ||||||
Blue Mountain CLO Ltd. 2005-1 Class A1-F | 227 | AAA | 33.7 | % | ||||||
CDX.NA.IG.4 7-YR 30-100% | 225 | AAA | 29.4 | % | ||||||
Kingsland IV - A1 Term | 224 | AAA | 20.8 | % | ||||||
Baker Street CLO II - Class A-1 Term | 224 | AAA | 20.4 | % | ||||||
Rait Preferred Funding II, Ltd. | 223 | AAA | 50.2 | % | ||||||
Capitalsource Commercial Real Estate CLO 2006-1 | 221 | AAA | 42.4 | % | ||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding IV, Ltd. Class A-1 | 219 | CCC | 40.3 | % | ||||||
Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures | $ | 16,731 | ||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Page 25
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | State | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virtua Health | $ | 221 | A | NJ | ||||
Iowa Health System | 198 | A+ | IA | |||||
CHRISTUS Health | 167 | A+ | TX | |||||
Integris Health, Inc. | 164 | AA- | OK | |||||
Children's Hospital | 162 | A+ | AL | |||||
Fairview Health Services | 160 | A | MN | |||||
Methodist Healthcare | 151 | A | TN | |||||
Spartanburg Regional Medical Center | 143 | A | SC | |||||
Essentia Health | 140 | A- | MN | |||||
Meridian Health System | 136 | A- | NJ | |||||
Total top 10 healthcare exposures | $ | 1,642 | ||||||
10 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime European RMBS | $ | 952 | AAA | |||
Fortress Credit Investments I Class A-1 | 738 | AAA | ||||
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III | 677 | Super Senior | ||||
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II | 634 | Super Senior | ||||
Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V. | 470 | AAA | ||||
Private - CLO | 373 | AAA | ||||
Paragon Mortgages (No.13) Plc | 360 | AAA | ||||
Rmf Euro CDO V Plc | 350 | AAA | ||||
Taberna Europe CDO I Plc | 346 | BBB- | ||||
Windmill CLO I Plc | 323 | AAA | ||||
Total top 10 non-U.S. exposures | $ | 5,223 | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 26
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers
Servicer: | Net Par Outstanding | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP | $ | 2,036 | |||
Wells Fargo Bank Minnesota, N.A. | 1,203 | ||||
GMAC Mortgage Corporation | 1,195 | ||||
American Home Mortgage Acceptance, Inc. | 978 | ||||
JPMorgan Chase Bank | 768 | ||||
Wilshire Credit Corporation | 282 | ||||
Ocwen Federal Bank | 257 | ||||
OneWest Bank Group LLC | 245 | ||||
Carrington Mortgage Services | 239 | ||||
Bank of America, N.A. | 229 | ||||
Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers | $ | 7,432 | |||
Page 27
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category1
| December 31, 2009 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total Net Par Outstanding | Number of Credits in Category | ||||||||
Category 1 | $ | 1,888 | 1.4 | % | 42 | ||||||
Category 2 | 4,246 | 3.3 | % | 124 | |||||||
Category 3 | 2,093 | 1.6 | % | 16 | |||||||
BIG Total | $ | 8,227 | 6.3 | % | 182 | ||||||
1. Effective January 1, 2009 Assured Guaranty adopted new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade ("BIG") credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories: BIG Category 1: BIG transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make material losses possible, but for which no losses have been incurred. Non-investment grade transactions on which liquidity claims have been paid are in this category. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 2: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established but for which no unreimbursed claims have yet been paid. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 3: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established and on which unreimbursed claims have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly.
Page 28
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Gross Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense ("LAE") Reserves by Type
(dollars in millions)
| As of December 31, | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Insurance reserves by type1: | 2009 | 2008 | ||||||
Case | $ | 189.8 | $ | 91.5 | ||||
Incurred but not reported and portfolio | 1.4 | 42.2 | ||||||
Total insurance loss and LAE reserves2 | 191.2 | 133.7 | ||||||
Credit derivative reserves by type: | ||||||||
Case | 329.8 | - | ||||||
Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits1 | - | 15.2 | ||||||
Portfolio reserves on CMC list1 | - | 22.3 | ||||||
Total credit derivatives loss and LAE reserves | 329.8 | 37.5 | ||||||
Total loss and LAE reserves | $ | 521.0 | $ | 171.2 | ||||
1. The Company adopted new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard, effective January 1, 2009.
2. Includes $0.8 million and $2.9 million as of December 31, 2009 and 2008, respectively, of case reserves in other segment.
Page 29
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid (1 of 3)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives | Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions | 4Q-09 Incurred Losses | 2009 Incurred Losses | 4Q-09 Paid Losses | 2009 Paid Losses | Gross Reserves | Expected Loss to be Expensed | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
First lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | 491.9 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 2,437.4 | 17.0 | 95.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 148.7 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 929.8 | 16.6 | 110.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 149.2 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 639.7 | 4.5 | 26.9 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 47.3 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total first lien | 4,498.8 | 38.1 | 232.9 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 345.2 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
Second lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 235.6 | 0.9 | 38.5 | 8.7 | 53.1 | 19.6 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
HELOC | 621.3 | 26.7 | 69.6 | 28.0 | 131.7 | 6.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total second lien | 856.9 | 27.6 | 108.1 | 36.7 | 184.8 | 26.5 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 5,355.7 | 65.7 | 341.0 | 38.6 | 188.6 | 371.7 | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 2,152.4 | 32.1 | 35.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 95.4 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
Public finance | 719.0 | 11.1 | 47.3 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 51.7 | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance | $ | 8,227.1 | $ | 108.9 | $ | 423.6 | $ | 44.3 | $ | 208.8 | $ | 518.8 | $ | 17.5 | |||||||||||
Page 30
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid (2 of 3)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts | Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions | 4Q-09 Incurred Losses | 2009 Incurred Losses | 4Q-09 Paid Losses | 2009 Paid Losses | Gross Reserve | Expected Loss to be Expensed | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
First lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | 25.2 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 332.3 | 2.0 | 13.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 23.8 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 297.7 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 19.8 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 332.4 | (0.1 | ) | 10.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Total first lien | 987.6 | 6.5 | 31.5 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 62.2 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
Second lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 235.6 | 0.9 | 38.5 | 8.7 | 53.1 | 19.6 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
HELOC | 621.3 | 26.7 | 70.1 | 28.0 | 131.7 | 6.9 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total second lien | 856.9 | 27.6 | 108.6 | 36.7 | 184.8 | 26.5 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 1,844.5 | 34.1 | 140.1 | 37.3 | 186.8 | 88.7 | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 473.5 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 48.6 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
Public finance | 719.0 | 11.1 | 47.6 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 51.7 | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance | $ | 3,037.0 | $ | 47.4 | $ | 193.0 | $ | 41.2 | $ | 205.2 | $ | 189.0 | $ | 17.5 | |||||||||||
Page 31
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid (3 of 3)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Credit Derivatives | Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions | 4Q-09 Incurred Losses | 2009 Incurred Losses | 4Q-09 Paid Losses | 2009 Paid Losses | Gross Reserve | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
First lien | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | 466.7 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 2,105.1 | 15.0 | 82.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 124.9 | ||||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 632.1 | 12.0 | 102.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 129.4 | ||||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 307.3 | 4.6 | 16.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 28.7 | ||||||||||||||||
Total first lien | 3,511.2 | 31.6 | 201.4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 283.0 | ||||||||||||||||
Second lien | ||||||||||||||||||||||
CES | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
HELOC | - | - | (0.5 | ) | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Total second lien | - | - | (0.5 | ) | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 3,511.2 | 31.6 | 200.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 283.0 | ||||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 1,678.9 | 29.9 | 30.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 46.8 | ||||||||||||||||
Public finance | - | - | (0.3 | ) | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance | $ | 5,190.1 | $ | 61.5 | $ | 230.6 | $ | 3.1 | $ | 3.6 | $ | 329.8 | ||||||||||
Page 32
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | ||||||||||||
Statutory Data | ||||||||||||||||
Net (loss) income | $ | (243.1 | ) | $ | 27.7 | $ | 71.6 | $ | 64.3 | |||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 1,224 | $ | 378 | $ | 400 | $ | 286 | ||||||||
Contingency reserve | 556 | 712 | 582 | 631 | ||||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 1,780 | 1,090 | 982 | 917 | ||||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 887 | 570 | 302 | 239 | ||||||||||||
Loss and LAE reserves | 398 | 15 | 12 | 15 | ||||||||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves | 3,065 | 1,675 | 1,296 | 1,171 | ||||||||||||
Present value of installment premium | 612 | 566 | 554 | 356 | ||||||||||||
Standby line of credit / stop loss | 200 | 200 | 280 | 455 | ||||||||||||
Total claims-paying resources | $ | 3,877 | $ | 2,441 | $ | 2,130 | $ | 1,982 | ||||||||
Statutory Financial Ratios | ||||||||||||||||
Loss and LAE ratio | 243.9 | % | 90.3 | % | (13.5 | )% | 4.5 | % | ||||||||
Expense ratio | 15.4 | % | 11.5 | % | 49.9 | % | 64.8 | % | ||||||||
Combined ratio | 259.3 | % | 101.8 | % | 36.4 | % | 69.3 | % | ||||||||
Other Financial Information: | ||||||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | $ | 186,606 | $ | 164,283 | $ | 128,351 | $ | 85,522 | ||||||||
Net par outstanding (end of period) | 130,468 | 111,025 | 94,127 | 68,370 | ||||||||||||
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | 180,765 | 152,801 | 127,743 | 91,858 | ||||||||||||
Par reinsured to other Assured Guaranty companies | 46,411 | 37,372 | 29,087 | 22,569 | ||||||||||||
Ratios: | ||||||||||||||||
Net par insured to statutory capital | 73:1 | 102:1 | 75:1 | 75:1 | ||||||||||||
Capital ratio1 | 105:1 | 151:1 | 93:1 | 93:1 | ||||||||||||
Financial resources ratio2 | 48:1 | 67:1 | 43:1 | 43:1 | ||||||||||||
Gross debt service written: | ||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 78,012 | $ | 56,865 | $ | 8,142 | $ | 3,440 | ||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 522 | 771 | 5,202 | 7,402 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 2,480 | 13,228 | 35,396 | 26,848 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | 5,265 | 10,061 | 5,843 | ||||||||||||
Total gross debt service written | $ | 81,014 | $ | 76,128 | $ | 58,801 | $ | 43,533 | ||||||||
1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Page 33
Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 10-K report.
Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in "tranches," with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company's financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed- and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate ("ARM") and option adjustable-rate ("Option ARM") mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including "prime", "subprime" and "Alt-A". A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.
Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.
Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS") are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multi-family, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties.
Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.
Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.
Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.
Page 34
Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
This Financial Supplement references financial measures that are not in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("non-GAAP financial measures"), which management uses in order to assist analysts and investors in evaluating the Assured Guaranty Corp's financial results. These non-GAAP financial measures are defined below. In each case, the most directly comparable financial measure under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP), if available, is presented and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and GAAP financial measure is provided. This presentation is consistent with how Assured Guaranty's management, analysts and investors evaluate the Company's financial results and is comparable to estimates published by analysts in their research reports on Assured Guaranty Corp.
- (a)
- PVP or present value of new business production: PVP is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% for December 31, 2009 and December 31, 2008. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty Corp. by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives ("Credit Derivative Revenues") do not adequately measure. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6% per year, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not result from changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refundings, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors. PVP should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.
- (b)
- Operating income: Operating income is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as net income (loss) adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company's investment portfolios;
- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives accounted for as derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses;
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities; and
- 4)
- Elimination of goodwill impairment.
Management believes that operating income is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income clarifies the understanding of the Company's results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of its business. Realized gains and losses on the Company's investment portfolios are excluded from operating income because the timing and amount of realized gains and losses are not directly related to the Company's insurance businesses. Both non-credit impairment fair value gains and losses on credit derivatives as well as fair value gains and losses on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded from operating income because these gains and losses do not result in an economic gain or loss and are heavily affected by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors. Operating income should not be viewed as a substitute for net income (loss) determined in accordance with GAAP.
- (c)
- Operating shareholder's equity ("Operating Shareholder's Equity"): Operating shareholder's equity is a non-GAAP financial measure calculated as shareholder's equity reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following fair value adjustments deemed to be unrelated to credit impairment:
- 1)
- Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investment portfolios, recorded as a component of accumulated comprehensive income, excluding foreign exchange revaluation;
- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives accounted for as derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses; and
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities.
Management believes that operating shareholder's equity is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of this measure clarifies the understanding of the Company's results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of its business. Unrealized gains and losses on the Company's investment portfolios recorded in accumulated comprehensive income, non-credit impairment fair value gains and losses on credit derivatives, and fair value gains and losses on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded from operating shareholder's equity because these gains and losses do not result in an economic gain or loss and are heavily affected by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors. Operating shareholder's equity should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholder's equity determined in accordance with GAAP.
- (d)
- Operating return on equity ("Operating ROE"): Operating ROE is a non-GAAP financial measure that represents operating income for the specified period divided by the average of operating shareholder's equity at the beginning and the end of the specified period.
- (e)
- Adjusted Book Value: Adjusted book value is a non-GAAP financial measure calculated as shareholder's equity adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investment portfolios, recorded as a component of accumulated comprehensive income, excluding foreign exchange revaluation;
- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives accounted for as derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses;
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities;
- 4)
- Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs;
- 5)
- Addition of the after-tax net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force, discounted at 6%, and the addition of the after-tax value of net unearned revenue on credit derivatives; and
- 6)
- Addition of the after-tax net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of net expected loss.
Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in force premiums and shareholder's equity. The premiums included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. determined in accordance with GAAP.
- (e)
- Net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force: Net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as the present value of estimated future revenue from our credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes in excess of expected losses, and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. Estimated future credit derivative revenues may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that result from market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.
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Contacts: | ||
Equity Investors: | ||
Sabra Purtill Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 408-6044 spurtill@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Ross Aron Associate, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Fixed Income Investors: | ||
Assured Guaranty Corp. | Robert Tucker | |
31 West 52nd Street | Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations | |
New York, NY 10019 | (212) 339-0861 | |
(212) 974-0100 | rtucker@assuredguaranty.com | |
www.assuredguaranty.com | ||
Michael Walker Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 261-5575 mwalker@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Media: | ||
Betsy Castenir Managing Director, Corporate Communications (212) 339-3424 bcastenir@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Corp. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Income Statements (Non-GAAP Presentation) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated Balance Sheets (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Underwriting Gain (Loss) (Non-GAAP) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Claims Paying Resources and Statutory-basis Exposures2 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. New Business Production (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Investment Portfolio As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 4) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. CMBS Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Change in Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 2) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 2) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Gross Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense ("LAE") Reserves by Type (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid (1 of 3) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid (2 of 3) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid (3 of 3) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions)
Glossary