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Exhibit 99.2
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
("AGM," formerly known as Financial Security Assurance Inc.)
December 31, 2009
Financial Supplement
| Page | |
---|---|---|
Selected Financial Highlights | 1 | |
Income Statements (Non-GAAP Presentation) | 2 | |
Consolidated Balance Sheets | 3 | |
Underwriting Gain (Loss) (Non-GAAP) | 4 | |
Claims Paying Resources and Statutory-basis Exposures | 5 | |
New Business Production | 6 | |
Investment Portfolio | 7 | |
Expected Amortization of U.S. and Non-U.S. Structured Finance Net Par Outstanding | 8 | |
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues | 9 | |
Estimated Amortization by Year of Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses to be Expensed in the Future | 10 | |
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer | 11 | |
Financial Guaranty Profile | 12-14 | |
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile | 15 | |
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile | 16-20 | |
U.S. Consumer Receivable Profile | 21 | |
Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile | 22 | |
Change in Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives | 23 | |
Below Investment Grade Exposures | 24-27 | |
Largest Exposures by Sector | 28-31 | |
Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories | 32 | |
Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid | 33-35 | |
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data | 36 | |
Glossary | 37 | |
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 38 |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty"), with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009. AGM was purchased by Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc., a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., on July 1, 2009. This financial supplement presents financial information since its acquisition, except for statutory data, which is based on full year statutory accounting principles. Purchase accounting adjustments were pushed down to AGM, which affects comparability to periods prior to the acquisition. AGM is a subsidiary of Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. ("FSAH"), which terminated its registration with the SEC in July 2009 and no longer files reports with the SEC. For the purposes of this supplement all references to the "Company" shall mean AGM.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to roundings.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: |
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade of Assured Guaranty or its affiliates and/or of transactions insured by Assured Guaranty or its affiliates, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, Assured Guaranty's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world's credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses affecting the adequacy of Assured Guaranty's loss reserves; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of reinsurance portfolio opportunities available to Assured Guaranty; (7) decreased demand or increased competition; (8) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (9) changes in applicable laws or regulation, including insurance and tax laws; (10) other governmental actions; (11) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty's business strategy; (12) contract cancellations; (13) Assured Guaranty's dependence on customers; (14) loss of key personnel; (15) adverse technological developments; (16) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (17) natural or man-made catastrophes; (18) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (19) management's response to these factors; and (20) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. |
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions)
| 3Q-09 | 4Q-09 | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income reconciliation: | ||||||||||||
Operating incomeb | $ | 230.7 | $ | 209.4 | $ | 440.1 | ||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | |||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (50.0 | ) | 169.2 | 119.2 | ||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax | (33.7 | ) | (15.6 | ) | (49.3 | ) | ||||||
Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net | 232.6 | - | 232.6 | |||||||||
Net Income attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | $ | 379.9 | $ | 363.5 | $ | 743.4 | ||||||
Earned premiums from refundings and accelerations | $ | 11.5 | $ | 36.5 | $ | 48.0 | ||||||
Operating income effect | $ | 7.5 | $ | 23.7 | $ | 31.2 |
| | | As of December 31, 2009 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted book value reconciliation: | |||||||||||
Book value attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | $ | 2,074.5 | |||||||||
Less: Non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (143.5 | ) | |||||||||
Less: Unrealized gains on committed capital securities, after tax | 3.6 | ||||||||||
Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect, after tax | 75.1 | ||||||||||
Operating shareholders' equity | $ | 2,139.3 | |||||||||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs, after tax | (17.5 | ) | |||||||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative revenue, after taxe1 | 191.9 | ||||||||||
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax | 2,510.6 | ||||||||||
Adjusted book valued | $ | 4,859.3 | |||||||||
Return on equity ("ROE") calculations2: | |||||||||||
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio | 104.3 | % | 80.0 | % | 45.3 | % | |||||
Operating ROEc | 53.4 | % | 40.7 | % | 24.3 | % |
1. Includes unearned revenue less ceded unearned premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.
2. Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. ROE for the year ended December 31, 2009 represents six months of AGM operations.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b), operating ROE (c), adjusted book value (d), and net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivative revenue in force (e)].
Page 1
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Income Statements (Non-GAAP Presentation)
(dollars in millions)
| 3Q-09 | 4Q-09 | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenues | |||||||||||
Net earned premiums | $ | 280.5 | $ | 294.9 | $ | 575.4 | |||||
Net investment income | 44.9 | 47.1 | 92.0 | ||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives1 | 28.8 | 27.8 | 56.6 | ||||||||
Incurred (losses) recoveries on credit derivatives | 27.3 | 19.7 | �� | 47.0 | |||||||
Other income | 34.3 | 0.9 | 35.2 | ||||||||
Total operating revenues | 415.8 | 390.4 | 806.2 | ||||||||
Expenses | |||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 0.9 | 50.9 | 51.8 | ||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | - | (0.5 | ) | (0.5 | ) | ||||||
Interest expense | 2.3 | 2.1 | 4.4 | ||||||||
Other operating expenses | 75.7 | 31.6 | 107.3 | ||||||||
Total operating expenses | 78.9 | 84.1 | 163.0 | ||||||||
Operating income before provision for income taxes | 336.9 | 306.3 | 643.2 | ||||||||
Total provision for income taxes | 106.2 | 96.9 | 203.1 | ||||||||
Operating incomeb | 230.7 | 209.4 | 440.1 | ||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | ||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairments fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax | (50.0 | ) | 169.2 | 119.2 | |||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains on committed capital securities, after tax | (33.7 | ) | (15.6 | ) | (49.3 | ) | |||||
Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net | 232.6 | - | 232.6 | ||||||||
Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | $ | 379.9 | $ | 363.5 | $ | 743.4 | |||||
1. Represents the revenue earned on credit derivatives included in the "realized gains and other settlements" line item on the statement of operations.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].
Page 2
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| As of | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2009 | July 1, 2009 | |||||||
Assets | |||||||||
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale | |||||||||
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | $ | 5,183.6 | $ | 4,968.9 | |||||
Short-term investments | 542.0 | 766.3 | |||||||
Total investments | 5,725.6 | 5,735.2 | |||||||
Assets acquired in refinancing transactions | 152.4 | 168.4 | |||||||
Receivables from affiliate | 300.0 | - | |||||||
Cash | 23.6 | 85.1 | |||||||
Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable | 787.4 | 846.4 | |||||||
Ceded unearned premium revenue | 1,508.6 | 1,727.7 | |||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses | 13.7 | - | |||||||
Credit derivative assets | 227.0 | 297.2 | |||||||
Committed capital securities, at fair value | 5.6 | 81.4 | |||||||
Deferred tax asset, net | 972.4 | 993.6 | |||||||
Financial guaranty variable interest entities' assets | 762.3 | 1,879.4 | |||||||
Other assets | 202.9 | 295.3 | |||||||
Total assets | $ | 10,681.5 | $ | 12,109.7 | |||||
Liabilities and shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Liabilities | |||||||||
Unearned premium reserves | $ | 6,287.6 | $ | 7,286.4 | |||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve | 55.3 | - | |||||||
Note payable to related party | 149.1 | 164.4 | |||||||
Credit derivative liabilities | 625.8 | 920.0 | |||||||
Reinsurance balances payable, net | 230.5 | 249.6 | |||||||
Financial guaranty variable interest entities' liabilities | 762.7 | 1,878.6 | |||||||
Other liabilities | 496.4 | 328.1 | |||||||
Total liabilities | 8,607.4 | 10,827.1 | |||||||
Shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Preferred stock | - | - | |||||||
Common stock | 15.0 | 15.0 | |||||||
Additional paid-in capital | 1,241.8 | 1,266.8 | |||||||
Retained earnings | 743.4 | - | |||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) | 74.3 | - | |||||||
Total shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | 2,074.5 | 1,281.8 | |||||||
Noncontrolling interest of variable interest entities | (0.4 | ) | 0.8 | ||||||
Total shareholder's equity | 2,074.1 | 1,282.6 | |||||||
Total liabilities and shareholder's equity | $ | 10,681.5 | $ | 12,109.7 | |||||
Page 3
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Underwriting Gain (Loss) (Non-GAAP)
(dollars in millions)
| 3Q-09 | 4Q-09 | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income statement: | ||||||||||||
Net earned premiums: | ||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums | ||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 60.7 | $ | 55.3 | $ | 116.0 | ||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 13.3 | 11.5 | 24.8 | |||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 189.5 | 180.6 | 370.1 | |||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | 5.5 | 11.0 | 16.5 | |||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums | 269.0 | 258.4 | 527.4 | |||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings | 11.5 | 36.5 | 48.0 | |||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 280.5 | 294.9 | 575.4 | |||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives | 28.8 | 27.8 | 56.6 | |||||||||
Other income | 34.3 | 0.9 | 35.2 | |||||||||
Total underwriting revenues | 343.6 | 323.6 | 667.2 | |||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries): | ||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 0.9 | 50.9 | 51.8 | |||||||||
Incurred losses (recoveries) on credit derivatives | (27.3 | ) | (19.7 | ) | (47.0 | ) | ||||||
Total incurred losses | (26.4 | ) | 31.2 | 4.8 | ||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | - | (0.5 | ) | (0.5 | ) | |||||||
Other operating expenses | 41.7 | 25.5 | 67.2 | |||||||||
Total underwriting expenses | 15.3 | 56.2 | 71.5 | |||||||||
Underwriting gain, pre-tax | $ | 328.3 | $ | 267.4 | $ | 595.7 | ||||||
Page 4
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Claims Paying Resources and Statutory-basis Exposures2
(dollars in millions)
| As of December 31, | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | |||||||
Claims paying resources | |||||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 909 | $ | 711 | |||||
Contingency reserve | 1,323 | 1,282 | |||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 2,232 | 1,993 | |||||||
Net unearned premium reserve | 2,392 | 2,520 | |||||||
Net loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | 1,236 | 1,688 | |||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves2 | 5,860 | 6,201 | |||||||
Net present value of installment premiums1 | 874 | 963 | |||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 498 | 550 | |||||||
Total claims paying resources | $ | 7,232 | $ | 7,714 | |||||
Net par outstanding | $ | 381,148 | $ | 424,393 | |||||
Net debt service outstanding | $ | 568,594 | $ | 631,886 | |||||
Ratios: | |||||||||
Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital | 171:1 | 213:1 | |||||||
Capital ratio3 | 255:1 | 317:1 | |||||||
Financial resources ratio4 | 79:1 | 82:1 |
1. Includes financial guaranty and credit derivatives discounted at 6%.
2. Statutory basis.
3. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
4. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.
Page 5
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)
| Quarter Ended September 30, 2009 | Quarter Ended December 31, 2009 | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New business production analysis: | |||||||||||||
Present value of new business production ("PVP")a | |||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 13.0 | $ | 17.9 | $ | 30.9 | |||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | ||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.0 | ||||||||||
Total PVPa | 14.3 | 19.5 | 33.8 | ||||||||||
Less: PVPa of credit derivatives | - | - | - | ||||||||||
PVPa of financial guaranty insurance | 14.3 | 19.5 | 33.8 | ||||||||||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVPa | 4.4 | (21.7 | ) | (17.3 | ) | ||||||||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP | 9.9 | 41.2 | 51.1 | ||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment adjustment2 | (9.2 | ) | (36.0 | ) | (45.2 | ) | |||||||
Total GWP | $ | 0.7 | $ | 5.2 | $ | 5.9 | |||||||
Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: | |||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 1,065 | $ | 1,495 | $ | 2,560 | |||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | — | — | — | ||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | — | — | — | ||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | — | — | — | ||||||||||
Total | $ | 1,065 | $ | 1,495 | $ | 2,560 | |||||||
1. These policies represent existing policies that have additional premium with no additional par outstanding.
2. Amounts represent the difference in the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a)].
Page 6
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Investment Portfolio
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
| Amortized Cost | Pre-Tax Book Yield | After-Tax Book Yield | Fair Value | Annualized Investment Income2 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: | |||||||||||||||||||
Fixed maturity securities: | |||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | $ | 68.7 | 3.5 | % | 2.3 | % | $ | 68.3 | $ | 2.4 | |||||||||
Agency obligations | 108.3 | 2.1 | % | 1.4 | % | 107.8 | 2.3 | ||||||||||||
Foreign government securities | 273.0 | 2.8 | % | 1.8 | % | 270.3 | 7.6 | ||||||||||||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | 1,930.4 | 3.5 | % | 3.3 | % | 1,983.2 | 67.0 | ||||||||||||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions1 | 1,825.1 | 4.6 | % | 4.4 | % | 1,888.4 | 84.1 | ||||||||||||
Corporate securities | 132.0 | 3.0 | % | 2.0 | % | 131.7 | 4.0 | ||||||||||||
Mortgage-backed securities: | |||||||||||||||||||
Pass-throughs | 440.3 | 5.5 | % | 3.6 | % | 443.3 | 24.2 | ||||||||||||
Planned Amortization Class | 4.0 | 4.0 | % | 2.6 | % | 4.0 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||
Asset-backed securities | 287.3 | 3.3 | % | 2.1 | % | 286.6 | 9.3 | ||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | 5,069.1 | 4.0 | % | 3.5 | % | 5,183.6 | 201.1 | ||||||||||||
Short-term investments | 541.9 | 0.2 | % | 0.1 | % | 542.0 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||
Total investment portfolio | $ | 5,611.0 | 3.6 | % | 3.2 | % | $ | 5,725.6 | $ | 202.3 | |||||||||
| Fair Value | % | | | | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratings3: | |||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | $ | 68.3 | 1.3 | % | |||||||||||||
Agency obligations | 107.8 | 2.1 | % | ||||||||||||||
AAA/Aaa | 1,646.3 | 31.8 | % | ||||||||||||||
AA/Aa | 2,012.7 | 38.8 | % | ||||||||||||||
A/A | 949.8 | 18.3 | % | ||||||||||||||
BBB | 134.7 | 2.6 | % | ||||||||||||||
Below investment grade ("BIG")4 | 264.0 | 5.1 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | $ | 5,183.6 | 100.0 | % | |||||||||||||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||
1. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average A+. Includes $280.3 million insured by AGM.
2. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields as of December 31, 2009.
3. Ratings are represented by the lower of Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's classifications.
4. Includes $227.4 million which the Company purchased for risk mitigation purposes.
Page 7
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Expected Amortization of U.S. and Non-U.S. Structured Finance Net Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)
| Estimated Net Par Amortization by Category | | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate | U.S. RMBS | U.S. Consumer Receivables | Financial Products (GICs) | Other Structured Finance | Total | Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||||||
Structured Finance Net Par Amortization: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2009 (as of December 31) | $ | 91,420 | |||||||||||||||||||||
2010 | $ | 11,729 | $ | 3,587 | $ | 1,912 | $ | 2,321 | $ | 792 | $ | 20,341 | 71,079 | ||||||||||
2011 | 7,274 | 2,246 | 1,301 | 743 | 399 | 11,963 | 59,116 | ||||||||||||||||
2012 | 11,496 | 1,779 | 331 | 1,324 | 718 | 15,648 | 43,468 | ||||||||||||||||
2013 | 7,650 | 1,352 | 36 | 1,028 | 388 | 10,454 | 33,014 | ||||||||||||||||
2014 | 10,722 | 1,132 | 14 | 788 | 203 | 12,859 | 20,155 | ||||||||||||||||
2010-2014 | 48,871 | 10,096 | 3,594 | 6,204 | 2,500 | 71,265 | 20,155 | ||||||||||||||||
2015-2019 | 9,708 | 3,142 | 32 | 965 | 1,047 | 14,894 | 5,261 | ||||||||||||||||
2020-2024 | 175 | 474 | 10 | 662 | 238 | 1,559 | 3,702 | ||||||||||||||||
2025-2029 | 33 | 93 | 4 | 488 | 175 | 793 | 2,909 | ||||||||||||||||
After 2029 | 81 | 538 | — | 1,932 | 358 | 2,909 | |||||||||||||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 58,868 | $ | 14,343 | $ | 3,640 | $ | 10,251 | $ | 4,318 | $ | 91,420 | |||||||||||
Page 8
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues
(dollars in millions)
| | | Financial Guaranty Insurance2 | | | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding | | | |||||||||||||||||||
| Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization | Estimated PV Net Earned Premiums | Accretion of Discount | Future Net Premiums Earned | Future Credit Derivative Revenues3 | Total | |||||||||||||||||
2009 (as of December 31) | $ | 583,796 | |||||||||||||||||||||
2010 | $ | 49,744 | 534,052 | $ | 857.5 | $ | 14.8 | $ | 872.3 | $ | 83.0 | $ | 955.3 | ||||||||||
2011 | 42,090 | 491,962 | 630.9 | 13.8 | 644.7 | 70.3 | 715.0 | ||||||||||||||||
2012 | 45,871 | 446,091 | 508.2 | 12.9 | 521.1 | 51.8 | 572.9 | ||||||||||||||||
2013 | 38,323 | 407,768 | 419.5 | 12.0 | 431.5 | 35.2 | 466.7 | ||||||||||||||||
2014 | 39,382 | 368,386 | 353.8 | 11.2 | 365.0 | 23.0 | 388.0 | ||||||||||||||||
2010-2014 | 215,410 | 368,386 | 2,769.9 | 64.7 | 2,834.6 | 263.3 | 3,097.9 | ||||||||||||||||
2015-2019 | 131,904 | 236,482 | 1,082.5 | 45.5 | 1,128.0 | 31.3 | 1,159.3 | ||||||||||||||||
2020-2024 | 95,070 | 141,412 | 534.7 | 31.3 | 566.0 | 2.9 | 568.9 | ||||||||||||||||
2025-2029 | 66,371 | 75,041 | 312.3 | 20.4 | 332.7 | 2.4 | 335.1 | ||||||||||||||||
After 2029 | 75,041 | - | 353.3 | 20.8 | 374.1 | 7.4 | 381.5 | ||||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 583,796 | $ | 5,052.7 | $ | 182.7 | $ | 5,235.4 | $ | 307.3 | $ | 5,542.7 | |||||||||||
1. Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2009. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
2. See page 10 for Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses to be Expensed.
3. Excludes contracts with credit impairment.
Page 9
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Estimated Amortization by Year of Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses
to be Expensed in the Future
(dollars in millions)
| Expected PV Net Loss to be Expensed1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year of Expected Amortization: | |||||
2010 | $ | 183.5 | |||
2011 | 165.3 | ||||
2012 | 163.6 | ||||
2013 | 135.1 | ||||
2014 | 112.6 | ||||
2010-2014 | 760.1 | ||||
2015-2019 | 272.8 | ||||
2020-2024 | 70.0 | ||||
2025-2029 | 39.8 | ||||
After 2029 | 47.5 | ||||
Total | $ | 1,190.2 | |||
1. The expected present value of net loss to be expensed is discounted by weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0.07% to 5.21% for a total discount of approximately $0.4 billion.
Page 10
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer
(dollars in millions)
Reinsurer | Ceded Par Outstanding | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Affiliated Companies | $ | 34,075 | |||
Non-Affiliated Companies: | |||||
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. | 30,272 | ||||
Radian Asset Assurance Inc. | 23,790 | ||||
RAM Reinsurance Co. Ltd. | 11,355 | ||||
Syncora Guarantee Inc. | 4,329 | ||||
R.V.I. Guaranty Co. Ltd. | 4,140 | ||||
Swiss Reinsurance Company | 4,046 | ||||
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co. Ltd. | 2,520 | ||||
Other | 2,427 | ||||
Non-Affiliated Companies | 82,879 | ||||
Total | $ | 116,954 | |||
Page 11
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
| Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | As of December 31, 2009 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Par Written | Avg. Rating1 | Net Par Outstanding | Avg. Rating1 | |||||||||
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||
General obligation | $ | 1,295 | A | $ | 126,375 | A+ | |||||||
Tax backed | 433 | A | 53,759 | A+ | |||||||||
Municipal utilities | 346 | A- | 49,263 | A | |||||||||
Transportation | 425 | A | 20,428 | A | |||||||||
Healthcare | 4 | A- | 11,033 | A | |||||||||
Higher education | 31 | A | 7,909 | A+ | |||||||||
Housing | 26 | AA | 6,653 | AA- | |||||||||
Infrastructure finance | - | - | 1,201 | BBB | |||||||||
Investor-owned utilities | - | - | 27 | BBB | |||||||||
Other public finance | - | - | 1,413 | A | |||||||||
Total U.S. public finance | 2,560 | A | 278,061 | A+ | |||||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | - | - | 11,111 | BBB | |||||||||
Regulated utilities | - | - | 6,845 | BBB+ | |||||||||
Other public finance | - | - | 6,553 | AA- | |||||||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | - | 24,509 | A- | ||||||||||
Total public finance | $ | 2,560 | A | $ | 302,570 | A+ | |||||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | - | - | $ | 44,597 | AAA | ||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | - | - | 14,343 | BB | |||||||||
Financial products | - | - | 10,251 | AA- | |||||||||
Consumer receivables | - | - | 3,640 | BBB | |||||||||
Insurance securitization | - | - | 369 | AA | |||||||||
Commercial receivables | - | - | 96 | BBB | |||||||||
Structured credit | - | - | 81 | BBB | |||||||||
Other structured finance | - | - | 762 | A | |||||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | - | - | 74,139 | AA- | |||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | - | - | 14,271 | AAA | |||||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | - | - | 1,808 | AA+ | |||||||||
Structured credit | - | - | 624 | BBB | |||||||||
Commercial receivables | - | - | 244 | A | |||||||||
Insurance securitizations | - | - | 38 | A+ | |||||||||
Other structured finance | - | - | 296 | AAA | |||||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | - | - | 17,281 | AAA | |||||||||
Total structured finance | $ | - | - | $ | 91,420 | AA | |||||||
Total exposures | $ | 2,560 | A | $ | 393,990 | A+ | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 12
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
| As of December 31, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance - U.S. | Public Finance- non - U.S. | Structured Finance - -U.S. | Structured Finance- non - U.S. | Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ratings1: | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior | $ | 24 | 0.0 | % | $ | - | 0.0 | % | $ | 16,480 | 22.2 | % | $ | 7,221 | 41.8 | % | $ | 23,725 | 6.0 | % | ||||||||||||
AAA | 5,111 | 1.8 | % | 1,301 | 5.3 | % | 19,651 | 26.5 | % | 5,208 | 30.1 | % | 31,271 | 7.9 | % | |||||||||||||||||
AA | 122,605 | 44.1 | % | 1,487 | 6.1 | % | 20,245 | 27.3 | % | 1,996 | 11.6 | % | 146,333 | 37.1 | % | |||||||||||||||||
A | 127,831 | 46.0 | % | 7,236 | 29.5 | % | 2,896 | 3.9 | % | 1,088 | 6.3 | % | 139,051 | 35.3 | % | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 20,983 | 7.5 | % | 14,105 | 57.6 | % | 4,596 | 6.2 | % | 1,687 | 9.8 | % | 41,371 | 10.5 | % | |||||||||||||||||
BIG | 1,507 | 0.6 | % | 380 | 1.5 | % | 10,271 | 13.9 | % | 81 | 0.4 | % | 12,239 | 3.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 278,061 | 100.0 | % | $ | 24,509 | 100.0 | % | $ | 74,139 | 100.0 | % | $ | 17,281 | 100.0 | % | $ | 393,990 | 100.0 | % | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 13
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of December 31, 2009
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.: | |||||||||
Public Finance: | |||||||||
California | $ | 40,932 | 10.4 | % | |||||
New York | 22,200 | 5.6 | |||||||
Pennsylvania | 20,456 | 5.2 | |||||||
Texas | 19,253 | 4.9 | |||||||
Illinois | 16,862 | 4.3 | |||||||
Florida | 14,523 | 3.7 | |||||||
Michigan | 12,802 | 3.2 | |||||||
New Jersey | 12,296 | 3.1 | |||||||
Washington | 9,980 | 2.5 | |||||||
Massachusetts | 8,319 | 2.1 | |||||||
Other states | 100,438 | 25.5 | |||||||
Total Public Finance | 278,061 | 70.5 | |||||||
Structured finance (multiple states) | 74,139 | 18.8 | |||||||
Total U.S. | 352,200 | 89.3 | |||||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||||
United Kingdom | 12,148 | 3.1 | |||||||
Australia | 4,947 | 1.3 | |||||||
Canada | 4,320 | 1.1 | |||||||
France | 1,909 | 0.5 | |||||||
Italy | 1,838 | 0.5 | |||||||
Other | 16,628 | 4.2 | |||||||
Total non-U.S. | 41,790 | 10.7 | |||||||
Net par outstanding | $ | 393,990 | 100.0 | % | |||||
Page 14
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Pooled Corporate Obligations as of December 31, 2009
Ratings1: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 23,144 | 39.3% | 25.6% | 23.3% | ||||||||
AAA | 21,484 | 36.5% | 25.6% | 24.8% | |||||||||
AA | 10,066 | 17.1% | 32.2% | 28.7% | |||||||||
A | 2,939 | 5.0% | 23.0% | 22.3% | |||||||||
BBB | 991 | 1.7% | 15.9% | 12.4% | |||||||||
Below investment grade | 244 | 0.4% | 38.9% | 10.5% | |||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 58,868 | 100.0% | 26.6% | 24.6% | ||||||||
Distribution of Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of December 31, 2009
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 13,907 | 23.6% | 21.8% | 21.2% | ||||||||
2005 | 13,257 | 22.5% | 24.7% | 22.0% | |||||||||
2006 | 8,410 | 14.3% | 27.7% | 26.4% | |||||||||
2007 | 23,047 | 39.2% | 29.9% | 27.1% | |||||||||
2008 | 247 | 0.4% | 34.1% | 34.1% | |||||||||
2009 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||
$ | 58,868 | 100.0% | 26.6% | 24.6% | |||||||||
Distribution of Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of December 31, 2009
Asset class: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement2 | Avg. Current Enhancement2 | Avg. Rating1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLOs/CBOs | $ | 32,248 | 54.8% | 27.2% | 25.1% | AAA | ||||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates | 12,493 | 21.2% | 17.4% | 15.7% | AAA | |||||||||
Synthetic high yield pooled corporates | 11,705 | 19.9% | 36.7% | 31.9% | AAA | |||||||||
Market Value CDOs of corporates | 1,493 | 2.5% | 17.0% | 32.3% | AAA | |||||||||
Trust preferred – banks and insurance | 166 | 0.3% | 47.5% | 45.9% | A | |||||||||
CDO of CDOs (corporate)3 | 37 | 0.1% | 24.2% | 18.9% | A- | |||||||||
Other Pooled Corporates | 726 | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | A- | |||||||||
$ | 58,868 | 100.0% | 26.6% | 24.6% | AAA | |||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to AGM's exposure, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the numbers shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to adjustments.
3. CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.
Page 15
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") Profile (1 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2009
Ratings: | Prime First Lien2 | Closed End Seconds ("CES") | HELOC3 | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | NIMs4 | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||
AAA | 112 | - | 445 | 132 | 155 | 1,321 | - | 2,165 | |||||||||||||||||
AA | 2 | 249 | 522 | - | - | 338 | - | 1,111 | |||||||||||||||||
A | 1 | - | 227 | - | - | 77 | - | 304 | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | 142 | 62 | - | 718 | 31 | 952 | |||||||||||||||||
BIG | - | 961 | 3,273 | 1,382 | 2,308 | 1,720 | 168 | 9,811 | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 115 | $ | 1,210 | $ | 4,608 | $ | 1,575 | $ | 2,463 | $ | 4,173 | $ | 199 | $ | 14,343 | |||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2009
Year insured: | Prime First Lien2 | CES | HELOC | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | NIMs | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 7 | $ | - | $ | 307 | $ | 71 | $ | - | $ | 1,324 | $ | 0 | $ | 1,710 | |||||||||
2005 | - | - | 711 | 395 | 133 | 403 | 15 | 1,657 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 | 108 | 454 | 1,811 | 556 | 958 | 126 | 86 | 4,100 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 756 | 1,779 | 553 | 1,371 | 2,250 | 98 | 6,806 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | 70 | - | 70 | |||||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 115 | $ | 1,210 | $ | 4,608 | $ | 1,575 | $ | 2,463 | $ | 4,173 | $ | 199 | $ | 14,343 | |||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating1 and Year Insured as of December 31, 2009
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 1,316 | $ | 48 | $ | 1 | $ | 18 | $ | 327 | $ | 1,710 | ||||||||
2005 | - | 237 | 83 | - | 420 | 917 | 1,657 | |||||||||||||||
2006 | - | 317 | - | 303 | - | 3,480 | 4,100 | |||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 294 | 981 | - | 444 | 5,087 | 6,806 | |||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | 70 | - | 70 | |||||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
$ | - | $ | 2,165 | $ | 1,111 | $ | 304 | $ | 952 | $ | 9,811 | $ | 14,343 | |||||||||
% of total | 0.0 | % | 15.1 | % | 7.7 | % | 2.1 | % | 6.7 | % | 68.4 | % | 100.0 | % |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. Includes primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") transactions.
3. Home equity line of credit ("HELOC") securitizations.
4. NIMs are net interest margin securities.
Page 16
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20091
U.S. CES
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination36 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
2006 | 454 | 27.1 | % | - | 50.7 | % | 15.9 | % | 2 | ||||||||||
2007 | 756 | 35.2 | % | - | 52.9 | % | 14.7 | % | 9 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 1,210 | 32.2 | % | - | 52.1 | % | 15.2 | % | 11 | ||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 711 | 24.6 | % | 0.8 | % | 7.4 | % | 10.7 | % | 4 | ||||||||
2006 | 1,811 | 43.8 | % | 0.2 | % | 21.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 7 | |||||||||
2007 | 1,779 | 59.7 | % | 4.7 | % | 19.1 | % | 8.1 | % | 7 | |||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 4,300 | 47.2 | % | 2.2 | % | 18.3 | % | 11.8 | % | 18 | |||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 395 | 42.8 | % | 14.5 | % | 4.9 | % | 23.0 | % | 8 | ||||||||
2006 | 556 | 57.5 | % | 3.4 | % | 8.5 | % | 39.5 | % | 7 | |||||||||
2007 | 553 | - | 4.3 | % | 8.4 | % | 48.8 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 1,504 | 32.5 | % | 6.6 | % | 7.5 | % | 38.6 | % | 19 | |||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding and number of transactions are based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the applicable trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size, and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned ("REO") divided by net par outstanding.
6. Many of the CES transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently under-collateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the under-collateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions.
Page 17
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Net Par Outstanding, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20091
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor2 | Subordination3 | Cumulative Losses4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies5 | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 133 | 36.8 | % | 8.8 | % | 6.8 | % | 45.5 | % | 3 | ||||||||
2006 | 958 | 65.4 | % | 8.4 | % | 6.9 | % | 51.3 | % | 6 | |||||||||
2007 | 1,371 | 73.2 | % | 7.6 | % | 6.5 | % | 45.5 | % | 5 | |||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 2,463 | 68.2 | % | 8.0 | % | 6.7 | % | 47.8 | % | 14 | |||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 403 | 38.6 | % | 47.3 | % | 3.8 | % | 37.8 | % | 6 | ||||||||
2006 | 126 | 43.9 | % | 42.8 | % | 9.3 | % | 43.4 | % | 2 | |||||||||
2007 | 2,250 | 73.9 | % | 27.5 | % | 6.8 | % | 50.0 | % | 9 | |||||||||
2008 | 70 | 76.4 | % | 35.3 | % | 3.5 | % | 35.4 | % | 1 | |||||||||
2009 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
$ | 2,849 | 67.7 | % | 31.2 | % | 6.4 | % | 47.6 | % | 18 | |||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 18
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (4 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Net Par Outstanding, Internal Rating1, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20092
U.S. CES
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination47 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
AAA | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
AA | 249 | 44.3 | % | - | 45.5 | % | 12.6 | % | 4 | ||||||||||
A | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
BIG | 961 | 29.0 | % | - | 53.8 | % | 15.8 | % | 7 | ||||||||||
$ | 1,210 | 32.2 | % | - | 52.1 | % | 15.2 | % | 11 | ||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
AAA | 421 | 76.7 | % | 7.6 | % | 0.4 | % | 1.0 | % | 3 | |||||||||
AA | 522 | 71.2 | % | 11.1 | % | 6.2 | % | 3.4 | % | 2 | |||||||||
A | 227 | 67.0 | % | 0.3 | % | 5.1 | % | 2.9 | % | 1 | |||||||||
BBB | 142 | 29.4 | % | 1.8 | % | 6.6 | % | 10.1 | % | 1 | |||||||||
BIG | 2,990 | 38.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 24.4 | % | 15.5 | % | 11 | |||||||||
$ | 4,300 | 47.2 | % | 2.2 | % | 18.3 | % | 11.8 | % | 18 | |||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
AAA | 61 | 37.1 | % | 27.7 | % | 2.9 | % | 17.3 | % | 3 | |||||||||
AA | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
A | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
BBB | 62 | 32.1 | % | 16.1 | % | 8.9 | % | 24.4 | % | 1 | |||||||||
BIG | 1,382 | 60.6 | % | 5.3 | % | 7.6 | % | 40.1 | % | 15 | |||||||||
$ | 1,504 | 58.5 | % | 6.6 | % | 7.5 | % | 38.6 | % | 19 | |||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
3. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
4. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
5. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
6. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
7. Many of the CES transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently under-collateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the under-collateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions.
Page 19
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (5 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Net Par Outstanding, Internal Rating1, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 20092
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor3 | Subordination4 | Cumulative Losses5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies6 | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
AAA | 155 | 69.2 | % | 5.0 | % | 7.8 | % | 52.1 | % | 1 | |||||||||
AA | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
A | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
BIG | 2,308 | 68.1 | % | 8.2 | % | 6.6 | % | 47.5 | % | 13 | |||||||||
$ | 2,463 | 68.2 | % | 8.0 | % | 6.7 | % | 47.8 | % | 14 | |||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
AAA | 104 | 25.4 | % | 80.4 | % | 4.7 | % | 44.2 | % | 2 | |||||||||
AA | 293 | 42.5 | % | 41.5 | % | 6.0 | % | 34.3 | % | 2 | |||||||||
A | 77 | 24.9 | % | 55.4 | % | 13.6 | % | 46.8 | % | 1 | |||||||||
BBB | 700 | 70.9 | % | 29.5 | % | 2.7 | % | 42.3 | % | 7 | |||||||||
BIG | 1,675 | 75.3 | % | 26.0 | % | 7.8 | % | 52.4 | % | 6 | |||||||||
$ | 2,849 | 67.7 | % | 31.2 | % | 6.4 | % | 47.6 | % | 18 | |||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on December 31, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
3. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
4. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
5. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
6. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 20
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating1 as of December 31, 2009
Rating: | Credit Cards | Auto | Manufactured Housing | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||
AAA | - | 62 | 91 | 153 | |||||||||
AA | - | - | 48 | 48 | |||||||||
A | - | 42 | - | 42 | |||||||||
BBB | 88 | 3,131 | - | 3,219 | |||||||||
BIG | - | - | 178 | 178 | |||||||||
$ | 88 | $ | 3,235 | $ | 317 | $ | 3,640 | ||||||
Average rating1 | BBB | BBB | A- | BBB | |||||||||
Avg. initial credit enhancement2 | 13.2 | % | 11.2 | % | 27.6 | % | 12.7 | % | |||||
Avg. current enhancement2 | 13.2 | % | 24.5 | % | 26.7 | % | 24.4 | % |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to AGM's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to adjustments.
Page 21
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Rating
| December 31, 2009 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratings1: | Net Par Outstanding | % | ||||||
Super senior | $ | 22,892 | 39.6 | % | ||||
AAA | 19,275 | 33.2 | % | |||||
AA | 9,939 | 17.1 | % | |||||
A | 3,539 | 6.1 | % | |||||
BBB | 1,611 | 2.8 | % | |||||
BIG | 720 | 1.2 | % | |||||
Total credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 57,976 | 100.0 | % | ||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Sector and
Average Rating
| December 31, 2009 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | Average Rating1 | |||||
Public Finance: | |||||||
U.S. public finance | $ | 879 | A- | ||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 2,571 | A | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 3,450 | A | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 40,218 | AAA | ||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 395 | BBB- | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 368 | AA | |||||
Commercial receivables | 67 | BBB- | |||||
Other structured finance | 119 | B | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 41,167 | AAA | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 12,684 | AAA | |||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity | 567 | AA | |||||
Structured credit | 70 | BBB | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 38 | A+ | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 13,359 | AAA | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 54,526 | AAA | ||||
Total credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 57,976 | AAA | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 22
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Change in Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type: | Net Par Outstanding | Wtd. Avg. Credit Rating1 | 4Q-09 Unrealized Gain (Loss) | 2009 Unrealized Gain (Loss) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pooled corporates: | ||||||||||||||
CLOs/CBOs | $ | 27,113 | AAA | $ | 202.8 | $ | 225.5 | |||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate | 12,493 | AAA | (4.8 | ) | (27.0 | ) | ||||||||
Synthetic high yield pooled corporate | 11,705 | AAA | 80.8 | 104.7 | ||||||||||
Trust preferred | 99 | AA | 2.3 | 2.7 | ||||||||||
Market value CDOs of corporate | 1,492 | AAA | 4.2 | 5.7 | ||||||||||
Total pooled corporate obligations | 52,902 | AAA | 285.3 | 311.6 | ||||||||||
U.S. RMBS2: | ||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien (including NIMs) | 174 | BB+ | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||||||||
CES and HELOCs | 221 | BBB | 3.1 | 11.5 | ||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 395 | BBB- | 3.3 | 11.6 | ||||||||||
Other3 | 4,679 | A | (0.7 | ) | (99.8 | ) | ||||||||
Total credit derivatives | $ | 57,976 | AAA | $ | 287.9 | $ | 223.4 | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities.
3. Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables, non-U.S. residential mortgage-backed and home equity securities, and non-U.S. infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities.
Page 23
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 4)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
BIG Exposures by Asset Type: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
General obligation | $ | 611 | BB | ||||
Health care revenue | 278 | BB- | |||||
Tax-supported | 219 | BB | |||||
Municipal utility revenue | 166 | D | |||||
Housing revenue | 7 | B | |||||
Education/University | 5 | BB+ | |||||
Other public finance | 221 | BB- | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 1,507 | B+ | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
Infrastructure finance | 380 | BB | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 380 | BB | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 1,887 | BB- | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Residential mortgages | $ | 9,811 | B- | ||||
Consumer receivables | 178 | BB | |||||
Pooled corporate | 163 | CCC+ | |||||
Other structured finance | 119 | B | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 10,271 | B- | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate | 81 | CCC | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 81 | CCC | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 10,352 | B- | ||||
Total BIG net par outstanding | $ | 12,239 | B | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 24
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 4)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Public Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of December 31, 2009
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||
Detroit (City of) School District Michigan | $ | 175 | BB | |||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | 151 | D | ||||
Jefferson County Alabama School Sales Tax Limited Obligation | 144 | BB | ||||
Detroit (City of) Michigan | 137 | BB+ | ||||
Mashantucket Pequot Tribe - Connecticut | 84 | B | ||||
Erie (City of) Pennsylvania | 81 | BB+ | ||||
Harrisburg (City of) Pennsylvania | 75 | BB | ||||
DeKalb County Medical Center - Georgia | 74 | BB | ||||
New Orleans (City of) Louisiana | 68 | BB- | ||||
St. Barnabas Health System - New Jersey | 62 | BB | ||||
PHEAA Student Loan Adjustable Rate Revenue Bonds 2001 Series A | 61 | BB | ||||
PHEAA Student Loan Adjustable Rate Revenue Bonds 2002 Series A | 53 | BB | ||||
Total U.S. public finance | $ | 1,165 | ||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||
Aeroporti Di Roma - Romulus Finance S.R.L. (Rome Airport) | $ | 224 | BB | |||
Cross City Tunnel Motorway Finance Limited | 156 | BB | ||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | $ | 380 | ||||
Total | $ | 1,545 | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Page 25
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 4)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of
December 31, 2009
Name or Description U.S. Structured Finance: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | 60+ Day Delinquencies2 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. RMBS: | |||||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I | $ | 664 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 12.1 | % | ||||||
MABS 2007-NCW | 647 | BB | 34.6 | % | 67.0 | % | |||||||
MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) G1A | 585 | CCC | 9.1 | % | 56.6 | % | |||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F | 581 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 27.6 | % | |||||||
Option One 2007-FXD2 | 404 | BB | 19.8 | % | 31.9 | % | |||||||
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 | 388 | CCC | 5.0 | % | 48.3 | % | |||||||
Harborview 2006-12 (NEGAM) | 354 | BB | 11.9 | % | 54.2 | % | |||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A | 342 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 13.6 | % | |||||||
MARM 2007-1 (FKA MASTR 2007-OA1 NEG | 338 | B | 5.6 | % | 35.6 | % | |||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2005-D | 330 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 13.1 | % | |||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2007-B | 304 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 10.8 | % | |||||||
GMACM 2004-HE3 | 283 | BB | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | |||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-12SL | 254 | CCC | - | 18.5 | % | ||||||||
Indymac 2007-H1 HELOC | 248 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 11.8 | % | |||||||
CWABS 2007-4 (Class A-4W) | 220 | BB | 22.1 | % | 40.3 | % | |||||||
Soundview 2007-WMC1 | 209 | CCC | 14.9 | % | 71.1 | % | |||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-1SL | 208 | CCC | - | 13.5 | % | ||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-10SL | 200 | CCC | - | 12.7 | % | ||||||||
Harborview 2006-1 (NEGAM) | 200 | CCC | 9.2 | % | 57.1 | % | |||||||
Harborview 2007-1 (NEGAM) | 199 | BB | 14.6 | % | 52.2 | % | |||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2005-C | 167 | BB | 0.0 | % | 10.8 | % | |||||||
Harborview 2006-10 (NEGAM) | 163 | B | 4.0 | % | 37.6 | % | |||||||
Flagstar HELOC 2006-2 | 159 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 14.9 | % | |||||||
CSAB 2006-3 | 153 | CCC | 1.8 | % | 43.4 | % | |||||||
Renaissance (Delta) 2007-3 | 146 | BB | 27.5 | % | 40.9 | % | |||||||
NAAC 2007-S2 | 141 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 16.0 | % | |||||||
Ahma 2007-4 NEGAM | 125 | CCC | 0.9 | % | 30.3 | % | |||||||
IMSC 2007-Hoa1 NEGAM A-1-2 | 124 | CCC | 1.1 | % | 27.4 | % | |||||||
Countrywide Alta 2005-22T | 99 | B | 6.3 | % | 20.7 | % | |||||||
CSAB 2006-2 | 91 | CCC | 5.6 | % | 37.9 | % | |||||||
Deutsche ALT-B 2006-AB1 | 90 | CCC | 7.0 | % | 30.3 | % | |||||||
Deutsche ALT-B 2006-AB4 | 86 | CCC | 0.2 | % | 37.5 | % | |||||||
ACE 2006-GP1 | 81 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 12.1 | % | |||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-16HE | 77 | BB | 17.9 | % | 29.0 | % | |||||||
CSMC 2007-3 | 71 | CCC | 2.0 | % | 36.2 | % | |||||||
GSAA 2005-12 | 70 | BB | 11.3 | % | 22.5 | % | |||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-H | 68 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 21.6 | % | |||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-6ALT | 65 | CCC | - | 71.3 | % | ||||||||
ACE 2007-SL1 | 65 | CCC | - | 16.9 | % | ||||||||
CWALT 2005-62 (NEGAM) | 63 | CCC | 13.3 | % | 54.7 | % | |||||||
Deutsche ALT-B 2006-AB3 | 59 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 46.9 | % | |||||||
DSLA 2005-AR5 (NEGAM) | 57 | CCC | 5.7 | % | 37.0 | % | |||||||
Luminent 2006-2 (NEGAM) | 54 | CCC | 9.7 | % | 56.0 | % | |||||||
CSAB 2006-4 | 52 | CCC | 3.6 | % | 38.9 | % | |||||||
FFMLT 2007-FFC | 51 | CCC | 0.0 | % | 15.9 | % | |||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | $ | 9,335 | |||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 26
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 4)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of
December 31, 2009
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||
Other: | |||||||||||||
NRG Peaker | $ | 119 | B | N/A | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 115 | CCC | 12.0 | % | |||||||||
Conseco Finance MH Series 2001-2 | 100 | BB | 18.2 | % | |||||||||
Greenpoint 2000-4 | 78 | BB | 16.1 | % | |||||||||
Total other | $ | 412 | |||||||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | $ | 9,747 | |||||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 77 | CCC | 12.0 | % | |||||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | $ | 77 | |||||||||||
Total | $ | 9,824 | |||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Page 27
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(in millions)
50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey (State of) | $ | 2,914 | AA- | |||
New York (State of) | 2,081 | AA | ||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) | 2,057 | AA | ||||
New York (City of) New York | 1,572 | AA- | ||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) State Sales Tax | 1,472 | AA | ||||
Houston Texas Water and Sewer | 1,461 | A+ | ||||
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | 1,436 | AA+ | ||||
Washington (State of) | 1,422 | AA | ||||
Chicago (City of) Illinois | 1,419 | A+ | ||||
University of California Board of Regents | 1,413 | AA | ||||
Wisconsin (State of) | 1,401 | A+ | ||||
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of) | 1,335 | AA- | ||||
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey | 1,294 | AA- | ||||
California (State of) | 1,290 | A | ||||
Illinois Toll Highway Authority | 1,260 | AA | ||||
Los Angeles California Unified School District | 1,254 | AA | ||||
Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System | 1,227 | BBB+ | ||||
California (State of) Department of Water Resources | 1,209 | A- | ||||
Illinois (State of) | 1,175 | AA | ||||
New York MTA Dedicated Tax | 1,134 | AA- | ||||
Broward County Florida School Board | 1,101 | AA- | ||||
New York MTA Transportation Authority | 1,086 | A | ||||
Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) | 1,027 | BBB- | ||||
Denver (City and County of) Colorado School District No.1 | 1,015 | A+ | ||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources | 992 | AA | ||||
Los Angeles Department of Water & Power - Electric Revenue Bonds | 980 | AA- | ||||
Long Island Power Authority | 952 | A- | ||||
Chicago O'Hare Airport | 944 | A | ||||
Connecticut (State of) | 937 | AA- | ||||
Detroit Michigan Sewer | 907 | A | ||||
San Diego (County of) California Water | 901 | AA | ||||
Michigan (State of) Gas & Motor Vehicle Tax | 896 | AA | ||||
Kentucky (Commonwealth of) | 895 | AA- | ||||
Michigan (State of) | 877 | A+ | ||||
New York State Thruway Highway Trust Fund | 877 | AA- | ||||
New Jersey Turnpike Authority | 874 | A | ||||
Chicago Illinois Public Schools | 873 | A+ | ||||
Metropolitan Washington DC Airports Authority | 865 | AA- | ||||
Louisiana (State of) Gas and Fuel Tax | 864 | A | ||||
Florida (State of) | 861 | AA+ | ||||
Oregon (State of) | 834 | AA- | ||||
San Diego California Unified School District | 832 | AA | ||||
Hawaii (State of) Department of Hawaiian Home Lands | 827 | AA | ||||
California State University System Trustee | 819 | AA- | ||||
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania | 817 | BBB- | ||||
Austin Texas Combined Utility System | 808 | AA- | ||||
Skyway Concession Company LLC | 806 | BBB | ||||
Clark County Nevada School District | 798 | AA | ||||
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport | 796 | A+ | ||||
Philadelphia Pennsylvania School District | 773 | A | ||||
Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures | $ | 56,660 | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
Page 28
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement % | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP. | $ | 1,268 | AA | 28.6 | % | |||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 1,126 | Super Senior | 13.5 | % | ||||||
Stone Tower Credit Funding | 1,119 | AAA | 32.3 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 973 | AA- | 42.7 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 791 | Super Senior | 23.4 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 763 | Super Senior | 14.9 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 754 | Super Senior | 29.4 | % | ||||||
Mizuho II Synthetic CDO | 735 | A | 30.7 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 730 | AA- | 40.0 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 723 | AAA | 25.0 | % | ||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I | 664 | CCC | 0.0 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 652 | Super Senior | 17.8 | % | ||||||
MABS 2007-NCW | 647 | BB | 34.6 | % | ||||||
MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) G1A | 585 | CCC | 9.1 | % | ||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F | 581 | CCC | 0.0 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 562 | AAA | 24.3 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 523 | Super Senior | 29.7 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 521 | Super Senior | 24.5 | % | ||||||
Americredit 2007-B-F | 518 | BBB | 18.5 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 512 | Super Senior | 14.2 | % | ||||||
Eastland CLO, LTD | 504 | Super Senior | 31.2 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 492 | AA | 46.7 | % | ||||||
Denali CLO VII, LTD. | 475 | AAA | 20.1 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 461 | Super Senior | 25.0 | % | ||||||
Avenue CLO V | 453 | AAA | 18.1 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 451 | Super Senior | 12.7 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 433 | Super Senior | 11.3 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 427 | AAA | 23.8 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 419 | AA | 23.7 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 419 | AAA | 36.0 | % | ||||||
Churchill Financial Cayman | 414 | AAA | 34.5 | % | ||||||
Westchester CLO | 405 | Super Senior | 32.3 | % | ||||||
Option One 2007-FXD2 | 404 | BB | 19.8 | % | ||||||
Grayson CLO | 403 | Super Senior | 21.4 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 399 | Super Senior | 14.0 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 397 | Super Senior | 13.9 | % | ||||||
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 | 388 | CCC | 5.0 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 383 | Super Senior | 36.4 | % | ||||||
Stone Tower III | 381 | AA- | 21.2 | % | ||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 377 | Super Senior | 11.0 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 369 | AAA | 29.5 | % | ||||||
Cent CDO 15 Limited | 360 | Super Senior | 16.9 | % | ||||||
Stone Tower CLO V | 357 | Super Senior | 27.8 | % | ||||||
Harborview 2006-12 (NEGAM) | 354 | BB | 11.9 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 353 | AAA | 34.0 | % | ||||||
Monument Park CDO | 352 | A+ | 11.6 | % | ||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 349 | AAA | 24.7 | % | ||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A | 343 | CCC | 0.0 | % | ||||||
Cifc Funding 2006-1 | 341 | AAA | 23.0 | % | ||||||
Muir Grove CLO | 341 | AA+ | 20.0 | % | ||||||
Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures | $ | 26,751 | ||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 29
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Residential Mortgage Servicers
Servicer: | Net Par Outstanding | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP | $ | 6,040 | |||
American Home Mortgage Acceptance, Inc. | 1,787 | ||||
GMAC Mortgage Corporation | 1,135 | ||||
Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC | 898 | ||||
Ocwen Federal Bank | 852 | ||||
Wells Fargo Bank Minnesota, N.A. | 755 | ||||
OneWest Bank Group LLC | 737 | ||||
First Tennessee Bank N.A. | 464 | ||||
Flagstar Bank, FSB | 300 | ||||
Litton Loan Servicing LP | 297 | ||||
Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers | $ | 13,265 | |||
Page 30
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | State | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SSM Health Care | $ | 250 | A+ | MO | ||||
Carolina HealthCare System | 217 | AA- | NC | |||||
Hospital Sisters Health Services Inc Obligated Group | 203 | AA- | IL | |||||
MultiCare Health System | 198 | A+ | WA | |||||
CHRISTUS Health | 192 | A+ | TX | |||||
Childrens National Medical Center | 190 | BBB+ | DC | |||||
Carilion Health System | 189 | A | VA | |||||
Clarian Health Partners | 184 | A+ | IN | |||||
St. Lukes Health System Kansas | 184 | A | MO | |||||
Catholic Health Initiatives | 167 | AA | CO | |||||
Total top 10 healthcare exposures | $ | 1,974 | ||||||
10 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating1 | | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quebec Provence | $ | 1,949 | A | |||||
Sydney Airport Finance Company | 1,385 | BBB | ||||||
Thames Water Utility Finance PLC | 1,145 | A- | ||||||
Channel Link Enterprises Finance Plc | 909 | BBB | ||||||
International AAA Sovereign Debt Synthetic CDO | 821 | AAA | ||||||
International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 736 | Super Senior | ||||||
International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 590 | Super Senior | ||||||
Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency | 586 | AA | ||||||
Artesian Finance II Plc (Southern) - Swap Policy | 512 | A- | ||||||
Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals plc | 473 | BBB | ||||||
Total top 10 non-U.S. exposures | $ | 9,106 | ||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Assured Guaranty's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 31
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category1
| December 31, 2009 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total Net Par Outstanding | Number of Credits in Category | |||||||||
Category 1 | $ | 3,148 | 0.8 | % | 59 | |||||||
Category 2 | 4,933 | 1.3 | % | 54 | ||||||||
Category 3 | 4,158 | 1.1 | % | 28 | ||||||||
BIG Total | $ | 12,239 | 3.2 | % | 141 | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade ("BIG") credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories: BIG Category 1: BIG transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make material losses possible, but for which no losses have been incurred. Non-investment grade transactions on which liquidity claims have been paid are in this category. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 2: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established but for which no unreimbursed claims have yet been paid. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 3: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established and on which unreimbursed claims have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly.
Page 32
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid (1 of 3)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | | | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions | 4Q-09 Incurred Losses | 2009 Incurred Losses | 4Q-09 Paid Losses | Gross Reserves | Expected Loss to be Expensed | ||||||||||||||||||
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives | Paid Losses | |||||||||||||||||||||||
First lien: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 1,382.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - | - | 1.8 | 174.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 2,307.9 | 25.8 | 28.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 32.5 | 489.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 1,887.9 | (3.0 | ) | (0.9 | ) | 0.3 | 1.0 | 35.3 | 56.6 | |||||||||||||||
Total first lien | 5,577.8 | 24.4 | 29.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 69.6 | 720.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Second lien: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 960.7 | (12.9 | ) | (25.4 | ) | 13.3 | 38.1 | 45.3 | 213.9 | |||||||||||||||
HELOC | 3,272.8 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 117.1 | 297.8 | 11.6 | 202.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Total second lien | 4,233.5 | 1.8 | (11.3 | ) | 130.4 | 335.9 | 56.9 | 415.9 | ||||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 9,811.3 | 26.2 | 17.9 | 130.9 | 337.5 | 126.5 | 1,136.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 540.1 | (0.1 | ) | (19.5 | ) | - | 4.0 | 25.8 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||
Public finance | 1,887.8 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 12,239.2 | $ | 31.2 | $ | 4.8 | $ | 132.1 | $ | 343.8 | $ | 157.9 | $ | 1,190.2 | ||||||||||
Page 33
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid (2 of 3)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | | | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions | 4Q-09 Incurred Losses | 2009 Incurred Losses | 4Q-09 Paid Losses | Gross Reserve | Expected Loss to be Expensed | ||||||||||||||||||
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts | Paid Losses | |||||||||||||||||||||||
First lien: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 1,382.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - | - | 1.8 | 174.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 2,307.9 | 25.8 | 28.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 32.5 | 489.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 1,820.9 | 0.8 | (0.4 | ) | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 56.6 | ||||||||||||||||
Total first lien | 5,510.8 | 28.2 | 29.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 35.2 | 720.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Second lien: | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 868.3 | - | - | 13.3 | 38.1 | - | 213.9 | |||||||||||||||||
HELOC | 3,272.8 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 117.1 | 297.8 | 11.6 | 202.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Total second lien | 4,141.1 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 130.4 | 335.9 | 11.6 | 415.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 9,651.9 | 42.9 | 43.8 | 130.9 | 337.5 | 46.8 | 1,136.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 204.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | - | - | 2.9 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Public finance | 1,663.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts | $ | 11,519.6 | $ | 50.9 | $ | 51.8 | $ | 132.1 | $ | 339.8 | $ | 55.3 | $ | 1,190.2 | ||||||||||
Page 34
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid (3 of 3)
As of December 31, 2009
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | Six Months Ended December 31, 2009 | | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions | 4Q-09 Incurred Losses | 2009 Incurred Losses | 4Q-09 Paid Losses | Gross Reserves | ||||||||||||||||
Credit Derivatives | Paid Losses | ||||||||||||||||||||
First lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||
Alt-A first lien | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 67.0 | (3.8 | ) | (0.5 | ) | - | - | 34.4 | |||||||||||||
Total first lien | 67.0 | (3.8 | ) | (0.5 | ) | - | - | 34.4 | |||||||||||||
Second lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 92.4 | (12.9 | ) | (25.4 | ) | - | - | 45.3 | |||||||||||||
HELOC | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Total second lien | 92.4 | (12.9 | ) | (25.4 | ) | - | - | 45.3 | |||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 159.4 | (16.7 | ) | (25.9 | ) | - | - | 79.7 | |||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 335.6 | (3.0 | ) | (21.1 | ) | - | 4.0 | 22.9 | |||||||||||||
Public finance | 224.6 | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Total Credit Derivatives | $ | 719.6 | $ | (19.7 | ) | $ | (47.0 | ) | $ | - | $ | 4.0 | $ | 102.6 | |||||||
Page 35
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |||||||||||||
Statutory Data | ||||||||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | 228.2 | $ | (1,376.7 | ) | $ | 312.9 | $ | 339.6 | $ | 293.5 | |||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 909 | $ | 711 | $ | 1,609 | $ | 1,543 | $ | 1,511 | ||||||||
Contingency reserve | 1,323 | 1,282 | 1,094 | 1,011 | 907 | |||||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 2,232 | 1,993 | 2,703 | 2,554 | 2,418 | |||||||||||||
Net unearned premium reserve | 2,392 | 2,520 | 2,275 | 2,071 | 1,850 | |||||||||||||
Net loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | 1,236 | 1,688 | 98 | 53 | 54 | |||||||||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves | 5,860 | 6,201 | 5,076 | 4,678 | 4,322 | |||||||||||||
Net present value of installment premiums | 874 | 963 | 1,113 | 828 | 804 | |||||||||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 498 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | |||||||||||||
Total claims-paying resources | $ | 7,232 | $ | 7,714 | $ | 6,739 | $ | 6,056 | $ | 5,676 | ||||||||
Other Financial Information: | ||||||||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | $ | 568,594 | $ | 631,886 | $ | 623,158 | $ | 552,695 | $ | 497,625 | ||||||||
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) | 755,360 | 834,426 | 858,458 | 765,632 | 686,134 | |||||||||||||
Net par outstanding (end of period) | 381,148 | 424,393 | 426,512 | 376,456 | 351,398 | |||||||||||||
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | 493,798 | 545,568 | 564,515 | 498,619 | 472,374 | |||||||||||||
Ceded par to all Assured Guaranty companies | 32,501 | 32,927 | 30,872 | 37,590 | 44,599 | |||||||||||||
Ceded par to other companies | 79,433 | 88,248 | 107,131 | 84,573 | 76,377 | |||||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 2,232 | 1,992 | 2,703 | 2,554 | 2,418 | |||||||||||||
Policyholders' surplus & reserves | 5,860 | 6,201 | 5,076 | 4,678 | 4,322 | |||||||||||||
Ratios: | ||||||||||||||||||
Net par insured to statutory capital | 171:1 | 213:1 | 158:1 | 147:1 | 145:1 | |||||||||||||
Capital ratio1 | 255:1 | 317:1 | 231:1 | 216:1 | 206:1 | |||||||||||||
Financial resources ratio2 | 79:1 | 82:1 | 92:1 | 91:1 | 88:1 | |||||||||||||
Gross debt service written: | ||||||||||||||||||
Public finance | $ | 4,202 | $ | 85,666 | $ | 133,792 | $ | 127,294 | $ | 120,745 | ||||||||
Structured finance | - | 5,193 | 57,434 | 48,794 | 40,347 | |||||||||||||
Total gross debt service written | $ | 4,202 | $ | 90,859 | $ | 191,226 | $ | 176,088 | $ | 161,092 | ||||||||
1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Page 36
Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s Annual Report on Form-10K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
Other Public Finance. Other domestic public finance obligations insured by AGM include bonds secured by revenues and guarantees from the Federal government, financings supported by specific state or local government entity revenues and stadium financings.
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in "tranches," with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company's financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed- and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate ("ARM") and option adjustable-rate ("Option ARM") mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including "prime", "subprime" and "Alt-A". A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.
Financial Products is the GICs portion of the former Financial Products Business of FSAH. AGM has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on the GICs and in respect of the GICs business that cannot be revoked or cancelled. Assured Guaranty is indemnified against exposure to the former Financial Products Business by Dexia. In addition, the French and Belgian governments have issued guaranties in respect of the GICs portion of the Financial Products Business. The Financial Products Business is currently being run off.
Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.
Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS") are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multi-family, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties.
Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.
Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.
Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.
Page 37
Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
This Financial Supplement references financial measures that are not in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("non-GAAP financial measures"), which management uses in order to assist analysts and investors in evaluating the Company's financial results. These non-GAAP financial measures are defined below. In each case, the most directly comparable financial measure under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP), if available, is presented and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and GAAP financial measure is provided. This presentation is consistent with how Assured Guaranty's management, analysts and investors evaluate the Company's financial results and is comparable to estimates published by analysts in their research reports on AGM.
(a) PVP or present value of new business production: PVP is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% for December 31, 2009. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for AGM by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives ("Credit Derivative Revenues") do not adequately measure. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6% per year, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not result from changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refundings, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors. PVP should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.
(b) Operating income: Operating income is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (which excludes noncontrolling interests in consolidated variable interest entities), adjusted for the following:
1) Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company's investment portfolios;
2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives accounted for as derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses;
3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities; and
4) Elimination of goodwill and settlement of pre-existing relationships.
Management believes that operating income is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income clarifies the understanding of the Company's results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of its business. Realized gains and losses on the Company's investment portfolios are excluded from operating income because the timing and amount of realized gains and losses are not directly related to the Company's insurance businesses. Both non-credit impairment fair value gains and losses on credit derivatives as well as fair value gains and losses on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded from operating income because these gains and losses do not result in an economic gain or loss and are heavily affected by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors. Operating income should not be viewed as a substitute for net income (loss) determined in accordance with GAAP.
(c) Operating shareholders' equity ("Operating Shareholders' Equity"): Operating shareholders' equity is a non-GAAP financial measure calculated as shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (which excludes noncontrolling interests in consolidated variable interest entities) reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following fair value adjustments deemed to be unrelated to credit impairment:
1) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investment portfolios, recorded as a component of accumulated comprehensive income, excluding foreign exchange revaluation;
2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives accounted for as derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses; and
3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities.
Management believes that operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of this measure clarifies the understanding of the Company's results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of its business. Unrealized gains and losses on the Company's investment portfolios recorded in accumulated comprehensive income, non-credit impairment fair value gains and losses on credit derivatives, and fair value gains and losses on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded from operating shareholders' equity because these gains and losses do not result in an economic gain or loss and are heavily affected by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors. Operating shareholders' equity should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholders' equity determined in accordance with GAAP.
(d) Operating return on equity ("Operating ROE"): Operating ROE is a non-GAAP financial measure that represents operating income for the specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders' equity at the beginning and the end of the specified period.
(e) Adjusted Book Value: Adjusted book value is a non-GAAP financial measure calculated as shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (which excludes noncontrolling interests in variable interest entities) adjusted for the following:
1) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investment portfolios, recorded as a component of accumulated comprehensive income, excluding foreign exchange revaluation;
2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives accounted for as derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses;
3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities;
4) Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs;
5) Addition of the after-tax net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force, discounted at 6%, and the addition of the after-tax value of net unearned revenue on credit derivatives; and
6) Addition of the after-tax net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of net expected loss.
Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in force premiums and shareholders' equity. The premiums included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholders' equity attributable to AGM determined in accordance with GAAP.
(e) Net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force: Net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as the present value of estimated future revenue from our credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes in excess of expected losses, and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of expected estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. Estimated future credit derivative revenues may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that result from market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.
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Contacts: | ||
Equity Investors: Sabra Purtill Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 408-6044 spurtill@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Ross Aron Associate, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. 31 West 52nd Street New York, NY 10019 (212) 974-0100 www.assuredguaranty.com | Fixed Income Investors: Robert Tucker Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 339-0861 rtucker@assuredguaranty.com | |
Michael Walker Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 261-5575 mwalker@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Media: Betsy Castenir Managing Director, Corporate Communications (212) 339-3424 bcastenir@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com |
Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Income Statements (Non-GAAP Presentation) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated Balance Sheets (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Underwriting Gain (Loss) (Non-GAAP) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Claims Paying Resources and Statutory-basis Exposures2 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. New Business Production (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Investment Portfolio As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Expected Amortization of U.S. and Non-U.S. Structured Finance Net Par Outstanding (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Estimated Net Exposure Amortization1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Estimated Amortization by Year of Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses to be Expensed in the Future (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") Profile (1 of 5) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 5) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 5) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (4 of 5) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (5 of 5) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Change in Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 4) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 4) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 4) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 4) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid (1 of 3) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid (2 of 3) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid (3 of 3) As of December 31, 2009 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions)
Glossary