Exhibit 99.2
Quarterly Financial Supplement
Third Quarter 2004
September 30, 2004
Assured Guaranty Ltd. 30 Woodbourne Avenue Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda www.assuredguaranty.com | Investor contact: Sabra Purtill (212) 408-6044 spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement, such as its statements regarding PVP, reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions except per share amounts)
| | Quarters Ended September 30, | | % Change versus 3Q-03 | | Nine Months Ended September 30, | | % Change versus YTD 2003 | |
2004 | | 2003 | 2004 | | 2003 |
Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a) | | $ | 48.0 | | $ | 107.1 | | -55 | % | $ | 207.5 | | $ | 208.9 | | -1 | % |
Less: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Installment premium PVP | | (23.5 | ) | (60.5 | ) | -61 | % | (111.7 | ) | (124.6 | ) | -10 | % |
Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP | | 24.5 | | 46.6 | | -48 | % | 95.7 | | 84.3 | | 14 | % |
Plus: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Installment GWP | | 32.6 | | 37.6 | | -13 | % | 107.8 | | 115.1 | | -6 | % |
Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP | | 57.1 | | 84.2 | | -32 | % | 203.5 | | 199.4 | | 2 | % |
Other segment GWP | | 5.2 | | 26.0 | | -80 | % | (78.4 | ) | 105.1 | | -175 | % |
Total gross written premiums | | $ | 62.3 | | $ | 110.2 | | -43 | % | $ | 125.1 | | $ | 304.5 | | -59 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 44.5 | | $ | 42.9 | | 4 | % | $ | 134.8 | | $ | 117.1 | | 15 | % |
less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments | | 0.8 | | 1.0 | | -20 | % | 7.1 | | 4.1 | | 73 | % |
less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives | | 10.1 | | 12.6 | | -20 | % | 22.2 | | 20.0 | | 11 | % |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 33.6 | | $ | 29.3 | | 15 | % | $ | 105.5 | | $ | 93.0 | | 13 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 1,487.9 | | $ | 1,349.1 | | 10 | % | $ | 1,487.9 | | $ | 1,349.1 | | 10 | % |
Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1) | | 259.1 | | 213.1 | | — | | 259.1 | | 213.1 | | — | |
Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax | | 281.4 | | 264.1 | | 7 | % | 281.4 | | 264.1 | | 7 | % |
Adjusted book value(c) | | $ | 2,028.4 | | $ | 1,826.3 | | 11 | % | $ | 2,028.4 | | $ | 1,826.3 | | 11 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
ROE, excluding AOCI | | 12.8 | % | 13.8 | % | -7 | % | 13.0 | % | 12.9 | % | 2 | % |
less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments | | 0.2 | % | 0.3 | % | -28 | % | 0.7 | % | 0.5 | % | 53 | % |
less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives | | 2.9 | % | 4.1 | % | -28 | % | 2.1 | % | 2.2 | % | -2 | % |
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b) | | 9.7 | % | 9.5 | % | 3 | % | 10.2 | % | 10.2 | % | 0 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average basic shares outstanding in millions (2) | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | — | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | — | |
Average diluted shares outstanding in millions | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | — | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Per diluted share: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 0.59 | | $ | 0.57 | | 4 | % | $ | 1.80 | | $ | 1.56 | | 15 | % |
less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments | | 0.01 | | 0.01 | | — | | 0.09 | | 0.05 | | 73 | % |
less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives | | 0.13 | | 0.17 | | -24 | % | 0.30 | | 0.27 | | 11 | % |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.45 | | $ | 0.39 | | 15 | % | $ | 1.41 | | $ | 1.24 | | 13 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 19.58 | | $ | 17.99 | | 9 | % | $ | 19.58 | | $ | 17.99 | | 9 | % |
Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1) | | 3.41 | | 2.84 | | | | 3.41 | | 2.84 | | | |
Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax | | 3.70 | | 3.52 | | 5 | % | 3.70 | | 3.52 | | 5 | % |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 26.69 | | $ | 24.35 | | 10 | % | $ | 26.69 | | $ | 24.35 | | 10 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
(1) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax
(2) Historical amounts represent shares issued upon the IPO closing
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
1
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended September 30 | | % Change versus 3Q-03 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | % Change versus YTD 2003 | |
2004 | | 2003 | 2004 | | 2003 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 62.3 | | $ | 110.2 | | -43 | % | $ | 125.1 | | $ | 304.5 | | -59 | % |
Net written premiums | | 55.1 | | 109.9 | | -50 | % | 18.3 | | 333.0 | | -95 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 53.4 | | 78.2 | | -32 | % | 130.7 | | 223.9 | | -42 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 23.2 | | 23.8 | | -3 | % | 71.0 | | 71.9 | | -1 | % |
Other income | | — | | 0.2 | | -100 | % | 0.6 | | 1.0 | | -40 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 76.6 | | $ | 102.2 | | -25 | % | $ | 202.3 | | $ | 296.8 | | -32 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 4.2 | | 32.9 | | -87 | % | (32.2 | ) | 91.9 | | -135 | % |
Profit commission expenses | | 1.1 | | 1.9 | | -42 | % | 11.2 | | 7.6 | | 47 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 14.2 | | 17.9 | | -21 | % | 35.6 | | 49.1 | | -27 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 14.1 | | 12.3 | | 15 | % | 53.3 | | 31.6 | | 69 | % |
Goodwill expense | | — | | — | | — | | 1.6 | | — | | — | |
Interest expense | | 3.4 | | 1.4 | | 143 | % | 7.4 | | 4.3 | | 72 | % |
Total expenses | | $ | 37.0 | | $ | 66.4 | | -44 | % | $ | 76.9 | | $ | 184.5 | | -58 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 39.6 | | 35.8 | | 11 | % | 125.4 | | 112.3 | | 12 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 6.1 | | 6.5 | | -6 | % | 19.9 | | 19.3 | | 3 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 33.6 | | $ | 29.3 | | 15 | % | $ | 105.5 | | $ | 93.0 | | 13 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.8 | | 1.0 | | -20 | % | 7.1 | | 4.1 | | 73 | % |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 10.1 | | 12.6 | | -20 | % | 22.2 | | 20.0 | | 11 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 44.5 | | $ | 42.9 | | 4 | % | $ | 134.8 | | $ | 117.1 | | 15 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of : | |
| | September 30, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value | | $ | 1,948.7 | | $ | 2,052.2 | |
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market | | 164.3 | | 137.5 | |
Total investments | | 2,113.0 | | 2,189.7 | |
| | | | | |
Cash | | 13.4 | | 32.4 | |
Accrued investment income | | 22.3 | | 23.8 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 186.9 | | 178.7 | |
Premium receivable | | 40.0 | | 64.0 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 20.6 | | 11.0 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 185.7 | | 122.1 | |
Due from affiliate | | — | | 115.0 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 26.3 | | –– | |
Value of reinsurance business assumed | | — | | 14.2 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 87.1 | |
Other assets | | 22.9 | | 20.0 | |
Total assets | | $ | 2,716.7 | | $ | 2,857.9 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 522.4 | | $ | 625.4 | |
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 297.4 | | 522.6 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 57.2 | | 71.2 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 26.7 | | 4.9 | |
Deferred federal income taxes payable | | 20.7 | | 55.6 | |
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments | | — | | 8.6 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 54.0 | | 9.6 | |
Long-term debt | | 197.3 | | 75.0 | |
Other liabilities | | 53.0 | | 47.2 | |
Total liabilities | | 1,228.8 | | 1,420.2 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 0.8 | | 16.4 | |
Treasury stock | | (7.9 | ) | — | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 900.2 | | 955.5 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 80.2 | | 81.2 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (7.7 | ) | (5.5 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 522.3 | | 390.0 | |
Total shareholders’ equity | | 1,487.9 | | 1,437.6 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | $ | 2,716.7 | | $ | 2,857.9 | |
3
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended September 30, 2004 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1) | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Subtotal | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | 33.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 33.9 | | | | $ | 33.9 | |
Structured finance | | 7.9 | | 5.0 | | 1.1 | | 14.0 | | | | 14.0 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | 48.0 | | | | $ | 48.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 57.1 | | $ | 5.2 | | $ | 62.3 | |
Net written premiums | | 14.2 | | 35.6 | | 5.3 | | 55.1 | | — | | 55.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.5 | | 31.9 | | 5.1 | | 53.4 | | — | | 53.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.2 | ) | 10.8 | | (5.4 | ) | 4.2 | | — | | 4.2 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | (0.2 | ) | 1.3 | | 1.1 | | — | | 1.1 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.4 | | 12.1 | | 0.5 | | 14.2 | | | | 14.2 | |
Operating expenses | | 4.3 | | 8.4 | | 1.3 | | 14.1 | | — | | 14.1 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 4.5 | | $ | 31.1 | | $ | (2.3 | ) | $ | 33.6 | | $ | — | | $ | 33.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 12.0 | | $ | 0.8 | | $ | 7.4 | | $ | 20.0 | | $ | — | | $ | 20.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | -7.3 | % | 33.9 | % | -105.9 | % | 7.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 7.9 | % |
Expense ratio | | 34.5 | % | 63.6 | % | 60.8 | % | 54.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 54.8 | % |
Combined ratio | | 27.3 | % | 97.5 | % | -45.1 | % | 62.7 | % | 0.0 | % | 62.7 | % |
| | Quarter Ended September 30, 2003 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1) | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Subtotal | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | 57.5 | | $ | — | | $ | 59.0 | | | | $ | 59.0 | |
Structured finance | | 36.7 | | 10.8 | | 0.6 | | 48.1 | | | | 48.1 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 38.2 | | $ | 68.3 | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 107.1 | | | | $ | 107.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 17.1 | | $ | 61.4 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 84.2 | | $ | 26.0 | | $ | 110.2 | |
Net written premiums | | 17.0 | | 61.2 | | 5.7 | | 83.9 | | 26.0 | | 109.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.0 | | 21.4 | | 5.6 | | 43.0 | | 35.2 | | 78.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 4.7 | | 7.7 | | (3.9 | ) | 8.5 | | 24.4 | | 32.9 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | 1.6 | | 1.6 | | 0.3 | | 1.9 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.2 | | 8.2 | | 1.0 | | 10.4 | | 7.5 | | 17.9 | |
Operating expenses | | 2.5 | | 3.4 | | 0.9 | | 6.8 | | 5.5 | | 12.3 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 8.4 | | $ | 19.3 | | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | 27.3 | | $ | 37.7 | | $ | 65.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 7.6 | | $ | 2.1 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 15.7 | | $ | (2.5 | ) | $ | 13.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 29.4 | % | 36.0 | % | -69.6 | % | 19.8 | % | 69.3 | % | 42.1 | % |
Expense ratio | | 23.1 | % | 54.2 | % | 62.5 | % | 43.7 | % | 37.8 | % | 41.0 | % |
Combined ratio | | 52.5 | % | 90.2 | % | -7.1 | % | 63.5 | % | 107.1 | % | 83.1 | % |
(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
4
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
| | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2004 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1) | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Subtotal | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty GWP (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 110.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 113.8 | | | | $ | 113.8 | |
Structured finance | | 27.2 | | 46.2 | | 20.3 | | 93.6 | | | | 93.6 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 30.1 | | $ | 157.1 | | $ | 20.3 | | $ | 207.5 | | | | $ | 207.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 59.5 | | $ | 123.8 | | $ | 20.2 | | $ | 203.5 | | $ | (78.4 | ) | $ | 125.1 | |
Net written premiums | | 56.8 | | 123.8 | | 20.2 | | 200.8 | | (182.5 | ) | 18.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 73.3 | | 77.9 | | 28.5 | | 179.7 | | (48.9 | ) | 130.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 13.8 | | 13.7 | | (9.9 | ) | 17.6 | | (49.8 | ) | (32.2 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.2 | | 10.6 | | 10.6 | | 0.6 | | 11.4 | |
Acquisition costs | | 2.9 | | 25.8 | | 3.1 | | 31.8 | | 3.8 | | 35.7 | |
Operating expenses(2) | | 11.9 | | 19.4 | | 7.0 | | 38.3 | | 3.6 | | 41.9 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 28.6 | | $ | 59.1 | | $ | 10.8 | | $ | 98.3 | | $ | (41.8 | ) | $ | 56.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 44.7 | | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 81.4 | | $ | (7.1 | ) | $ | 73.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 18.8 | % | 17.6 | % | -34.7 | % | 9.8 | % | 101.8 | % | -24.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 20.2 | % | 58.3 | % | 72.6 | % | 44.9 | % | -16.4 | % | 68.1 | % |
Combined ratio | | 39.0 | % | 75.9 | % | 37.9 | % | 54.7 | % | 85.5 | % | 43.5 | % |
| | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2003 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1) | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Subtotal | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | 100.1 | | $ | — | | $ | 101.6 | | | | $ | 101.6 | |
Structured finance | | 72.8 | | 33.9 | | 0.6 | | 107.3 | | | | 107.3 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 74.3 | | $ | 133.9 | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 208.9 | | | | $ | 208.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 54.2 | | $ | 125.2 | | $ | 20.0 | | $ | 199.4 | | $ | 105.1 | | $ | 304.5 | |
Net written premiums | | 53.4 | | 124.2 | | 20.0 | | 197.6 | | 135.4 | | 333.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 54.1 | | 68.4 | | 21.9 | | 144.4 | | 79.5 | | 223.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 13.1 | | 10.4 | | 1.0 | | 24.5 | | 67.4 | | 91.9 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 1.0 | | 6.2 | | 7.2 | | 0.3 | | 7.6 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.2 | | 25.6 | | 3.5 | | 30.3 | | 18.8 | | 49.1 | |
Operating expenses | | 7.1 | | 9.3 | | 3.6 | | 20.0 | | 11.6 | | 31.6 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 21.4 | | $ | 46.3 | | $ | 14.3 | | $ | 82.0 | | $ | 98.1 | | $ | 180.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 32.7 | | $ | 22.1 | | $ | 7.6 | | $ | 62.4 | | $ | (18.6 | ) | $ | 43.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 24.2 | % | 15.2 | % | 4.6 | % | 17.0 | % | 84.8 | % | 41.0 | % |
Expense ratio | | 15.3 | % | 52.5 | % | 60.7 | % | 39.8 | % | 38.6 | % | 39.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 39.6 | % | 67.7 | % | 65.3 | % | 56.8 | % | 123.4 | % | 80.5 | % |
(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
(2) YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
5
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | YTD 2003 | | YTD 2004 | |
PVP(a): | | $ | 20.7 | | $ | 15.4 | | $ | 38.2 | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 74.3 | | $ | 30.1 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums written in period | | (20.7 | ) | (15.4 | ) | (36.7 | ) | (21.7 | ) | (7.9 | ) | (14.4 | ) | (7.9 | ) | — | | (72.8 | ) | (30.1 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | — | | — | | 1.5 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 1.5 | | — | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums | | 14.0 | | 23.1 | | 15.6 | | 17.0 | | 25.6 | | 17.7 | | 16.2 | | — | | 52.7 | | 59.5 | |
Financial guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 17.1 | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 54.2 | | $ | 59.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 17.1 | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 54.2 | | $ | 59.5 | |
Net written premiums | | 15.8 | | 20.6 | | 17.0 | | 16.6 | | 25.3 | | 17.3 | | 14.2 | | — | | 53.4 | | 56.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.9 | | 21.2 | | 16.0 | | 16.1 | | 40.7 | | 16.1 | | 16.5 | | — | | 54.1 | | 73.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 2.0 | | 6.4 | | 4.7 | | 3.2 | | 13.4 | | 1.6 | | (1.2 | ) | — | | 13.1 | | 13.8 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | — | | — | | 1.2 | | 1.6 | | 1.4 | | 0.1 | | 1.4 | | — | | 1.2 | | 2.9 | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 2.7 | | 1.9 | | 2.5 | | 14.5 | | 3.3 | | 4.3 | | 4.3 | | — | | 7.1 | | 11.9 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 4.7 | | $ | 8.3 | | $ | 8.4 | | $ | 19.3 | | $ | 18.1 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 4.5 | | $ | — | | $ | 21.4 | | $ | 28.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 11.8 | % | 30.2 | % | 29.4 | % | 19.9 | % | 32.9 | % | 9.9 | % | -7.3 | % | | | 24.2 | % | 18.8 | % |
Expense ratio | | 16.0 | % | 9.0 | % | 23.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 11.5 | % | 27.3 | % | 34.5 | % | | | 15.3 | % | 20.2 | % |
Combined ratio | | 27.8 | % | 39.2 | % | 52.5 | % | 119.9 | % | 44.5 | % | 37.3 | % | 27.3 | % | | | 39.6 | % | 39.0 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | 2.9 | |
Structured finance | | 20.7 | | 15.4 | | 36.7 | | 21.7 | | 7.9 | | 11.4 | | 7.9 | | — | | 72.8 | | 27.2 | |
Total | | $ | 20.7 | | $ | 15.4 | | $ | 38.2 | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 74.3 | | $ | 30.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 48 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 246 | | $ | 508 | | $ | — | | $ | 48 | | $ | 754 | |
Structured finance | | 1,212 | | 1,163 | | 2,796 | | 1,810 | | 1,488 | | 2,444 | | 854 | | — | | 5,170 | | 4,785 | |
Total | | $ | 1,212 | | $ | 1,163 | | $ | 2,844 | | $ | 1,810 | | $ | 1,488 | | $ | 2,691 | | $ | 1,361 | | $ | — | | $ | 5,219 | | $ | 5,539 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 2,120 | | $ | 2,381 | | $ | 2,251 | | $ | 2,048 | | $ | 2,112 | | $ | 2,321 | | $ | 2,852 | | $ | — | | $ | 2,251 | | $ | 2,852 | |
Structured finance | | 17,709 | | 18,140 | | 20,509 | | 20,142 | | 21,737 | | 23,454 | | 23,605 | | — | | 20,509 | | 23,605 | |
Total | | $ | 19,829 | | $ | 20,521 | | $ | 22,760 | | $ | 22,189 | | $ | 23,849 | | $ | 25,775 | | $ | 26,457 | | $ | — | | $ | 22,760 | | $ | 26,457 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of installment premiums in force | | $ | 194.6 | | $ | 205.4 | | $ | 221.9 | | $ | 228.1 | | $ | 220.6 | | $ | 219.7 | | $ | 218.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 221.9 | | $ | 218.9 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 12.7 | | $ | 12.7 | | $ | 13.5 | | $ | 12.8 | | $ | 11.6 | | $ | 12.8 | | $ | 12.1 | | $ | — | | $ | 13.5 | | $ | 12.1 | |
(1) 2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
6
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | YTD 2003 | | YTD 2004 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 38.6 | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 68.3 | | $ | 35.4 | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 40.1 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 133.9 | | $ | 157.1 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | (15.7 | ) | (12.2 | ) | (23.2 | ) | (7.2 | ) | (40.0 | ) | (17.2 | ) | (14.5 | ) | — | | (51.1 | ) | (71.7 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | 22.9 | | 14.8 | | 45.2 | | 28.2 | | 38.1 | | 22.9 | | 24.5 | | — | | 82.8 | | 85.4 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums(2) | | 6.9 | | 19.2 | | 16.2 | | 15.3 | | 14.3 | | 12.9 | | 11.1 | | — | | 42.4 | | 38.4 | |
Financial guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 29.8 | | $ | 34.0 | | $ | 61.4 | | $ | 43.5 | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 35.8 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | — | | $ | 125.2 | | $ | 123.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 29.8 | | $ | 34.0 | | $ | 61.4 | | $ | 43.5 | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 35.8 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | — | | $ | 125.2 | | $ | 123.8 | |
Net written premiums | | 29.1 | | 33.9 | | 61.2 | | 37.9 | | 52.4 | | 35.8 | | 35.6 | | — | | 124.2 | | 123.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.9 | | 30.1 | | 21.4 | | 24.5 | | 20.4 | | 25.6 | | 31.9 | | — | | 68.4 | | 77.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.8 | | 0.9 | | 7.7 | | 15.3 | | 3.9 | | (0.9 | ) | 10.8 | | — | | 10.4 | | 13.7 | |
Profit commission expense | | 0.1 | | 0.9 | | — | | 0.5 | | 0.1 | | 0.3 | | (0.2 | ) | — | | 1.0 | | 0.2 | |
Acquisition costs | | 5.4 | | 11.9 | | 8.2 | | 8.3 | | 7.1 | | 6.6 | | 12.1 | | — | | 25.6 | | 25.8 | |
Operating expenses (3) | | 3.1 | | 2.8 | | 3.4 | | (2.3 | ) | 4.1 | | 6.9 | | 8.4 | | — | | 9.3 | | 19.4 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 10.4 | | $ | 16.5 | | $ | 19.3 | | $ | 21.8 | | $ | 15.2 | | $ | 12.9 | | $ | 31.1 | | $ | — | | $ | 46.3 | | $ | 59.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 10.7 | % | 3.0 | % | 36.0 | % | 62.4 | % | 19.1 | % | -3.5 | % | 33.9 | % | 0.0 | % | 15.2 | % | 17.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 50.9 | % | 51.8 | % | 54.2 | % | 26.5 | % | 55.4 | % | 53.9 | % | 63.6 | % | 0.0 | % | 52.5 | % | 58.3 | % |
Combined ratio | | 61.5 | % | 54.8 | % | 90.2 | % | 89.0 | % | 74.5 | % | 50.4 | % | 97.5 | % | 0.0 | % | 67.7 | % | 75.9 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 26.8 | | $ | 15.8 | | $ | 57.5 | | $ | 31.3 | | $ | 45.8 | | $ | 31.2 | | $ | 33.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 100.1 | | $ | 110.9 | |
Structured finance | | 11.8 | | 11.3 | | 10.8 | | 4.0 | | 32.3 | | 8.9 | | 5.0 | | — | | 33.9 | | 46.2 | |
Total | | $ | 38.6 | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 68.3 | | $ | 35.4 | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 40.1 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 133.9 | | $ | 157.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1,279 | | $ | 914 | | $ | 2,621 | | $ | 1,906 | | $ | 1,932 | | $ | 1,590 | | $ | 2,262 | | $ | — | | $ | 4,814 | | $ | 5,784 | |
Structured finance | | 1,263 | | 737 | | 888 | | 406 | | 1,154 | | 629 | | 507 | | — | | 2,888 | | 2,290 | |
Total | | $ | 2,542 | | $ | 1,651 | | $ | 3,510 | | $ | 2,312 | | $ | 3,086 | | $ | 2,219 | | $ | 2,769 | | $ | — | | $ | 7,703 | | $ | 8,074 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 47,238 | | $ | 47,001 | | $ | 48,499 | | $ | 50,628 | | $ | 51,806 | | $ | 52,061 | | $ | 52,926 | | $ | — | | $ | 48,499 | | $ | 52,926 | |
Structured finance | | 13,089 | | 12,976 | | 13,083 | | 14,706 | | 13,935 | | 13,514 | | 13,084 | | — | | 13,083 | | 13,084 | |
Total | | $ | 60,327 | | $ | 59,977 | | $ | 61,582 | | $ | 65,334 | | $ | 65,741 | | $ | 65,575 | | $ | 66,010 | | $ | — | | $ | 61,582 | | $ | 66,010 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of installment premiums in force | | $ | 101.1 | | $ | 105.6 | | $ | 116.4 | | $ | 117.2 | | $ | 140.3 | | $ | 147.2 | | $ | 138.0 | | — | | $ | 116.4 | | $ | 138.0 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 345.6 | | $ | 349.0 | | $ | 388.5 | | $ | 403.6 | | $ | 435.5 | | $ | 445.9 | | $ | 449.0 | | — | | $ | 388.5 | | $ | 449.0 | |
(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
(2) Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums. As a result, prior period amounts have been restated. This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.
(3) 2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
7
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | YTD 2003 | | YTD 2004 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a) | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | — | | $ | 19.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 1.1 | | — | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 20.3 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums(a) | | — | | — | | (0.6 | ) | — | | (8.9 | ) | — | | (1.1 | ) | — | | (0.6 | ) | (10.0 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 10.3 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 10.3 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums | | 5.8 | | 8.5 | | 5.7 | | 4.4 | | 3.7 | | 0.9 | | 5.3 | | — | | 20.0 | | 9.9 | |
Mortgage guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 5.8 | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 5.3 | | — | | $ | 20.0 | | $ | 20.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 5.8 | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | — | | $ | 20.0 | | $ | 20.2 | |
Net written premiums | | 6.1 | | 8.2 | | 5.7 | | 4.4 | | 14.0 | | 0.9 | | 5.3 | | — | | 20.0 | | 20.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 6.9 | | 9.4 | | 5.6 | | 5.7 | | 8.4 | | 15.0 | | 5.1 | | — | | 21.9 | | 28.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.2 | | 3.7 | | (3.9 | ) | (1.7 | ) | (1.2 | ) | (3.3 | ) | (5.4 | ) | — | | 1.0 | | (9.9 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | 3.2 | | 1.4 | | 1.6 | | 1.1 | | 5.0 | | 4.3 | | 1.3 | | — | | 6.2 | | 10.6 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.0 | | 1.5 | | 1.0 | | 1.5 | | 0.9 | | 1.7 | | 0.5 | | — | | 3.5 | | 3.1 | |
Operating expenses(1) | | 1.8 | | 0.9 | | 0.9 | | 1.0 | | 1.7 | | 4.0 | | 1.3 | | — | | 3.6 | | 7.0 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 7.2 | | $ | 7.5 | | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | 1.9 | | $ | 6.4 | | $ | 6.7 | | $ | (2.3 | ) | $ | — | | $ | 14.3 | | $ | 10.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 17.4 | % | 39.4 | % | -69.6 | % | -29.8 | % | -14.3 | % | -22.0 | % | -105.9 | % | — | | 4.6 | % | -34.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 87.0 | % | 40.4 | % | 62.5 | % | 63.2 | % | 90.5 | % | 66.7 | % | 60.8 | % | — | | 60.7 | % | 72.6 | % |
Combined ratio | | 104.3 | % | 79.8 | % | -7.1 | % | 33.3 | % | 76.2 | % | 44.7 | % | -45.1 | % | — | | 65.3 | % | 37.9 | % |
(1) 2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
8
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | YTD 2003 | | YTD 2004 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 60.9 | | $ | 18.3 | | $ | 26.0 | | $ | (20.2 | ) | $ | (93.6 | ) | $ | 10.0 | | $ | 5.2 | | — | | $ | 105.1 | | $ | (78.4 | ) |
Net written premiums | | 53.1 | | 56.3 | | 26.0 | | 99.6 | | (98.5 | ) | (83.9 | ) | — | | — | | 135.4 | | (182.5 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 22.9 | | 21.4 | | 35.2 | | 40.7 | | 17.2 | | (66.0 | ) | — | | — | | 79.5 | | (48.9 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 18.2 | | 24.8 | | 24.4 | | 35.9 | | 7.5 | | (57.4 | ) | — | | — | | 67.4 | | (49.8 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | (0.3 | ) | 0.4 | | 0.3 | | 0.7 | | 0.4 | | 0.2 | | — | | — | | 0.3 | | 0.6 | |
Acquisition costs | | 5.4 | | 6.0 | | 7.5 | | 4.4 | | 3.6 | | — | | — | | — | | 18.8 | | 3.8 | |
Operating expenses(1) | | 4.1 | | 1.9 | | 5.5 | | (3.7 | ) | 3.5 | | — | | — | | — | | 11.6 | | 3.6 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 27.4 | | $ | 33.1 | | $ | 37.7 | | $ | 37.3 | | $ | 15.0 | | $ | (57.2 | ) | $ | — | | — | | $ | 98.1 | | $ | (41.8 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 79.5 | % | 115.9 | % | 69.3 | % | 88.2 | % | 43.6 | % | 87.0 | % | 0.0 | % | — | | 84.8 | % | 101.8 | % |
Expense ratio | | 40.2 | % | 38.8 | % | 37.8 | % | 3.4 | % | 43.6 | % | -0.3 | % | 0.0 | % | — | | 38.6 | % | -16.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 119.7 | % | 154.7 | % | 107.1 | % | 91.6 | % | 87.2 | % | 86.7 | % | 0.0 | % | | | 123.4 | % | 85.5 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity layer credit protection | | $ | 12.6 | | $ | 7.6 | | $ | 19.5 | | $ | 22.1 | | $ | 5.4 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 39.7 | | $ | 5.4 | |
Trade credit reinsurance | | 10.7 | | 14.3 | | 11.6 | | 14.6 | | 9.3 | | (34.6 | ) | | | — | | 36.6 | | (25.3 | ) |
Title reinsurance | | 1.2 | | 1.2 | | 4.6 | | 3.7 | | 2.4 | | 0.8 | | — | | — | | 7.0 | | 3.2 | |
Life accident and health reinsurance | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | | | — | | — | |
Auto residual value reinsurance | | 0.7 | | 0.7 | | 0.7 | | 2.1 | | — | | (32.2 | ) | — | | — | | 2.1 | | (32.2 | ) |
Affiliate reinsurance | | (2.8 | ) | (2.4 | ) | (1.2 | ) | (1.3 | ) | — | | — | | — | | — | | (5.9 | ) | — | |
Total net earned premiums | | $ | 22.4 | | $ | 21.4 | | $ | 35.2 | | $ | 41.2 | | $ | 17.1 | | $ | (66.0 | ) | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 79.5 | | $ | (48.9 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss)(1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity layer credit protection | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | (5.7 | ) | $ | (15.2 | ) | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 2.2 | | $ | 0.5 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | (19.8 | ) | $ | 2.7 | |
Trade credit reinsurance | | (1.4 | ) | (4.0 | ) | (0.1 | ) | 2.2 | | 1.3 | | (4.2 | ) | | | — | | (5.5 | ) | (2.9 | ) |
Title reinsurance | | 1.0 | | 0.8 | | 2.9 | | 2.1 | | 0.7 | | 0.3 | | — | | — | | 4.7 | | 1.0 | |
Life accident and health reinsurance | | (0.5 | ) | — | | (0.1 | ) | — | | — | | — | | — | | | | (0.6 | ) | — | |
Auto residual value reinsurance | | (2.5 | ) | (1.9 | ) | 0.1 | | (20.2 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (5.4 | ) | — | | — | | (4.3 | ) | (7.9 | ) |
Affiliate reinsurance | | (2.7 | ) | (0.9 | ) | 9.9 | | 1.1 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 6.9 | | — | |
Total underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | (5.0 | ) | $ | (11.7 | ) | $ | (2.5 | ) | $ | 4.0 | | $ | 1.7 | | $ | (8.8 | ) | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | (18.6 | ) | $ | (7.1 | ) |
(1) 2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
9
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)
| | As of : | | | | | |
Loss and LAE Reserves By Segment: | | September 30, 2004 | | | | December 31, 2003 | | | | | |
Financial guaranty direct | | $ | 19.9 | | | | $ | 29.9 | | | | | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance | | 78.8 | | | | 72.8 | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty | | 13.3 | | | | 24.1 | | | | | |
Other | | 185.4 | | | | 395.8 | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 297.4 | | | | $ | 522.6 | | | | | |
| | As of : | | | | | |
Loss and LAE Reserves By Type: | | September 30, 2004 | | | | December 31, 2003 | | | | | |
|
Case basis | | $ | 57.3 | | | | $ | 128.9 | | | | | |
IBNR | | 174.1 | | | | 319.0 | | | | | |
Portfolio | | 66.0 | | | | 74.7 | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 297.4 | | | | $ | 522.6 | | | | | |
| | As of September 30, 2004 | |
By Segment and Type of Loss and LAE Reserve: | | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
|
|
Case basis | | $ | 4.9 | | $ | 29.5 | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | 21.8 | | $ | 57.3 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 10.5 | | 163.6 | | 174.1 | |
Portfolio | | 15.0 | | 49.3 | | 1.7 | | — | | 66.0 | |
Total | | $ | 19.9 | | $ | 78.8 | | $ | 13.3 | | $ | 185.4 | | $ | 297.4 | |
By Segment and Type of Loss and LAE Reserve: | | As of December 31, 2003 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Case basis | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 35.3 | | $ | 1.8 | | $ | 89.8 | | $ | 128.9 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 13.1 | | 305.9 | | 319.0 | |
Portfolio | | 27.9 | | 37.5 | | 9.2 | | — | | 74.7 | |
Total | | $ | 29.9 | | $ | 72.8 | | $ | 24.1 | | $ | 395.8 | | $ | 522.6 | |
10
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
| | Amortized Cost | | Fair Value | | Pre-Tax Book Yield | | Duration | | Annualized Investment Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 249.1 | | $ | 261.9 | | 5.1 | % | 5.2 | | | 12.7 | |
Foreign government securities | | 14.6 | | 14.7 | | 5.1 | % | 3.0 | | 0.7 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 329.7 | | 348.7 | | 4.5 | % | 7.4 | | 14.9 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 468.9 | | 508.9 | | 5.0 | % | 7.4 | | 23.3 | |
Corporate securities | | 161.0 | | 171.3 | | 5.9 | % | 5.4 | | 9.5 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | — | | — | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 438.6 | | 424.3 | | 5.1 | % | 3.8 | | 22.4 | |
PACs | | 118.1 | | 143.5 | | 5.0 | % | 3.2 | | 5.4 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 73.8 | | 75.3 | | 5.5 | % | 2.5 | | 4.0 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | 1,853.7 | | 1,948.7 | | 5.0 | % | 5.6 | | 93.0 | |
Short-term investments | | 164.3 | | 164.3 | | 1.4 | % | — | | 2.3 | |
Total investments available for sale | | 2,018.0 | | 2,113.0 | | 4.7 | % | 5.2 | | 95.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | | | |
Maturity Schedule: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Due within one year | | $ | 23.5 | | 1.2 | % | | | | | | |
Due in one to five years | | 165.9 | | 8.5 | % | | | | | | |
Due in five to ten years | | 334.5 | | 17.2 | % | | | | | | |
Due in greater than ten years | | 857.1 | | 44.0 | % | | | | | | |
Mortgage-backed securities | | 567.9 | | 29.1 | % | | | | | | |
Total | | 1,948.7 | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | | | |
Quality Distribution: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treasury | | $ | 35.3 | | 1.8 | % | | | | | | |
Agency | | 226.6 | | 11.6 | % | | | | | | |
AAA | | 1,254.8 | | 64.4 | % | | | | | | |
AA | | 304.5 | | 15.6 | % | | | | | | |
A | | 125.5 | | 6.4 | % | | | | | | |
BBB | | 2.0 | | 0.1 | % | | | | | | |
Total | | 1,948.7 | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
11
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)
Sector | | | | As of September 30, 2004: | |
Gross Par Written | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
3Q 2004 | | 3Q 2003 |
Public Finance | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation bonds | | $ | 797 | | $ | 223 | | $ | 12,796 | | 13.8 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 422 | | 863 | | 11,000 | | 11.9 | % | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 691 | | 405 | | 9,953 | | 10.8 | % | A+ | |
Transportation | | 70 | | 644 | | 6,874 | | 7.4 | % | A | |
Healthcare | | 360 | | 159 | | 6,448 | | 7.0 | % | A | |
Structured municipal (1) | | — | | — | | 3,266 | | 3.5 | % | AAA | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 338 | | 149 | | 2,266 | | 2.5 | % | A- | |
Housing | | 25 | | 84 | | 1,156 | | 1.3 | % | AA- | |
Other public finance (2) | | 11 | | 124 | | 1,043 | | 1.1 | % | A- | |
Higher education | | 56 | | 19 | | 976 | | 1.1 | % | A+ | |
Total public finance | | $ | 2,770 | | $ | 2,669 | | $ | 55,778 | | 60.3 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | | | | | |
CDO’s (3) | | $ | 221 | | $ | 2,269 | | $ | 16,535 | | 17.9 | % | AA+ | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 692 | | 380 | | 7,127 | | 7.7 | % | AA- | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 264 | | 722 | | 5,599 | | 6.1 | % | AA- | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 104 | | 204 | | 3,744 | | 4.0 | % | BBB+ | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 80 | | 89 | | 1,903 | | 2.1 | % | AA- | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | 20 | | 1,779 | | 1.9 | % | AA- | |
Total structured finance | | $ | 1,360 | | $ | 3,684 | | $ | 36,689 | | 39.7 | % | AA | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Total exposure | | $ | 4,130 | | $ | 6,354 | | $ | 92,467 | | 100.0 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 136 | | $ | 6 | | $ | 2,437 | | NA | | NA | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(5) Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7) Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(8) Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
12
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile - Page 2
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Ratings (1) | | September 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | | December 31, 2003 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 26,999 | | 29.2 | % | $ | 26,374 | | 30.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | 19,036 | | 20.6 | % | 17,587 | | 20.1 | % |
A/A | | 31,871 | | 34.5 | % | 30,008 | | 34.3 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 12,973 | | 14.0 | % | 12,051 | | 13.8 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1,587 | | 1.7 | % | 1,505 | | 1.7 | % |
| | $ | 92,467 | | 100 | % | $ | 87,524 | | 100 | % |
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
U.S.: | | September 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 7,323 | | 7.9 | % |
New York | | 5,526 | | 6.0 | % |
Texas | | 3,241 | | 3.5 | % |
Illinois | | 2,957 | | 3.2 | % |
Florida | | 2,770 | | 3.0 | % |
New Jersey | | 2,360 | | 2.6 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 2,012 | | 2.2 | % |
Massachusetts | | 1,810 | | 2.0 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,776 | | 1.9 | % |
Washington | | 1,619 | | 1.8 | % |
Other - Muni | | 20,340 | | 22.0 | % |
Other - Non Muni | | 32,521 | | 35.2 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 84,256 | | 91.1 | % |
| | | | | | | |
International: | | September 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 5,348 | | 5.8 | % |
Australia | | 538 | | 0.6 | % |
Brazil | | 363 | | 0.4 | % |
France | | 283 | | 0.3 | % |
Italy | | 280 | | 0.3 | % |
Other | | 1,398 | | 1.5 | % |
Total International | | $ | 8,211 | | 8.9 | % |
| | | | | |
Total | | $ | 92,467 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure
Ratings (1) | | September 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | | December 31, 2003 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 19,792 | | 73.9 | % | $ | 20,703 | | 76.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | 2,929 | | 10.9 | % | 2,534 | | 9.3 | % |
A/A | | 2,890 | | 10.8 | % | 2,575 | | 9.5 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 1,057 | | 3.9 | % | 1,216 | | 4.5 | % |
Below investment grade | | 108 | | 0.4 | % | 158 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 26,776 | | 100 | % | $ | 27,187 | | 100 | % |
(1) Assured Guaranty internal rating
13
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposure
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (8) | |
| | | | | | | |
Public Finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 20.3 | | $ | 374.4 | | BB- | |
Healthcare | | 13.5 | | 103.2 | | BB | |
General obligation bonds | | 12.1 | | 69.1 | | BB | |
Other public finance (1) | | 27.1 | | 44.1 | | BB- | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 17.7 | | 15.7 | | BB- | |
Municipal utilities | | 11.6 | | 14.7 | | C | |
Tax backed | | 10.8 | | 8.4 | | BB- | |
Housing | | 8.8 | | 3.7 | | B | |
Higher education | | 12.3 | | 1.0 | | B | |
Structured municipal (2) | | 0 | | 0 | | | |
Total public finance | | 18.5 | | $ | 634.4 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | |
Consumer receivables (3) | | 3.1 | | $ | 525.9 | | BB | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 9.1 | | 186.1 | | B- | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 7.8 | | 132.7 | | B | |
CDO’s (5) | | 3.5 | | 107.6 | | B- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 1.4 | | 0.7 | | C | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | — | | | |
Total structured finance | | 5.0 | | $ | 953.0 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total exposure | | 10.3 | | $ | 1,587.3 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | | | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(5) Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7) Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(8) Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
14
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding(1) | | Rating(2) | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 890 | | A- | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | 760 | | AA- | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 722 | | A- | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 632 | | A | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 606 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation | | 589 | | A+ | |
New York City General Obligation & Leases | | 566 | | A | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 544 | | A- | |
New York State Metro Trans Auth | | 535 | | A | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 524 | | AA+ | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 481 | | A | |
Energy Northwest | | 480 | | AA- | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 480 | | AA- | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 464 | | A- | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 457 | | A+ | |
New York State General Obligation | | 427 | | AA | |
Mental Health Services Facilities - New York | | 373 | | AA- | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans | | 356 | | AA | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education | | 350 | | A+ | |
Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina | | 345 | | AA- | |
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System | | 324 | | A | |
Illinois State General Obligation | | 303 | | AA | |
Puerto Rico Government Development Bank | | 300 | | A+ | |
Los Angeles County California Pension Obligation | | 273 | | A | |
Chicago O’Hare International Airport | | 271 | | A+ | |
| | | | | |
Total Top 25 Public Finance Exposures | | $ | 12,051 | | | |
(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company
(2) Assured Guaranty internal rating
15
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding(1) | | Rating(2) | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | $ | 884 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 740 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 | | 628 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 575 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 563 | | A+ | |
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust | | 550 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 500 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 470 | | AA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 430 | | AAA | |
Providian Gateway Master Trust | | 416 | | BB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 410 | | AAA | |
Private Sub-Prime RMBS | | 361 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Private Automobile Lease Securitization | | 350 | | BBB | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 347 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 300 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 291 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG CDO | | 281 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 278 | | AAA | |
Metris Master Credit Card Trust | | 276 | | BB | |
Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities | | 276 | | AAA | |
| | | | | |
Total Top 25 Structured Finance Exposures | | $ | 11,119 | | | |
(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company
(2) Assured Guaranty internal rating
16
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Single Name Corporate/Sovereign CDS Exposures
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Obligor | | Net Par Outstanding(1) | | Rating(2) | | | | | | | |
General Electric Capital Corp. | | $ | 60 | | AAA | | | | | | | |
Allianz AG | | 50 | | AAA | | | | | | | |
Japan Republic Sovereign Obligation | | 50 | | AA- | | | | | | | |
American International Group | | 50 | | AAA | | | | | | | |
Fannie Mae | | 45 | | AAA | | | | | | | |
France Telecom | | 40 | | A+ | | | | | | | |
Citigroup Inc. | | 39 | | AA- | | | | | | | |
Oesterreichische Elektrizitaertswirtschafts AG | | 36 | | A | | | | | | | |
Zurich Insurance Company | | 35 | | A | | | | | | | |
ABN Amro Bank NV | | 30 | | AA- | | | | | | | |
Total Top 10 Single Name/Sovereign CDS Exposures | | $ | 435 | | | | | | | | | |
Single Name Corporate and Sovereign by Rating | | 3Q-04 | | Gross Par Written 3Q-03 | | Net Par Outstanding | | | | | |
| | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | — | | $ | — | | 509 | | | | | |
AA/Aa | | — | | — | | 229 | | | | | |
A/A | | — | | 10 | | 862 | | | | | |
BBB/Baa | | — | | 10 | | 179 | | | | | |
Below investment grade | | — | | — | | — | | | | | |
Total | | $ | — | | $ | 20 | | $ | 1,779 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | |
Single Name Corporate and Sovereign CDS Run-off | | 2004(3) | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | |
Beginning par outstanding | | $ | 1,779 | | $ | 1,684 | | $ | 696 | | $ | 510 | | $ | 279 | |
Scheduled runoff amount | | 95 | | 988 | | 186 | | 231 | | 155 | |
Ending par outstanding | | $ | 1,684 | | $ | 696 | | $ | 510 | | $ | 279 | | $ | 124 | |
(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company
(2) Assured Guaranty internal rating
(3) Beginning balance as of October 1, 2004
17
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital & Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of September 30, 2004 | | As of December 31, 2003 | |
| | AGC | | AGR (1) | | Consolidated | | AGC | | AGR (1) | | Consolidated | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | $ | 418 | | $ | 161 | | $ | 579 | | $ | 467 | | $ | 233 | | $ | 699 | |
Contingency reserve | | 456 | | — | | 456 | | 400 | | — | | 400 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 265 | | 612 | | 877 | | 256 | | 560 | | 816 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 182 | | 214 | | 55 | | 390 | | 445 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserve | | $ | 1,171 | | $ | 955 | | $ | 2,126 | | $ | 1,178 | | $ | 1,183 | | $ | 2,360 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 265 | | $ | 612 | | $ | 877 | | $ | 256 | | $ | 560 | | $ | 816 | |
Contingency reserve | | 456 | | — | | 456 | | 400 | | — | | 400 | |
Statutory capital | | 721 | | 612 | | 1,333 | | $ | 656 | | $ | 560 | | $ | 1,216 | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | 418 | | 161 | | 579 | | 467 | | 233 | | 699 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 182 | | 214 | | 55 | | 390 | | 445 | |
Total policyholders’ reserves | | 450 | | 343 | | 793 | | $ | 522 | | $ | 623 | | $ | 1,144 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 279 | | 112 | | 391 | | 293 | | 90 | | 383 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 255 | | — | | 255 | | 255 | | — | | 255 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,705 | | $ | 1,067 | | $ | 2,772 | | $ | 1,726 | | $ | 1,273 | | $ | 2,998 | |
(1) AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements
(2) Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums
18
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions except share amounts)
| | 9/30/04 | | 2003 | | 2002 | | 2001 | | 2000 | |
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross premiums written | | $ | 125.1 | | $ | 349.2 | | $ | 417.2 | | $ | 442.9 | | $ | 206.0 | |
Net earned premiums | | 130.7 | | 310.9 | | 247.4 | | 293.5 | | 140.7 | |
Net investment income | | 71.0 | | 96.3 | | 97.2 | | 99.5 | | 98.1 | |
Total expenses | | 76.9 | | 266.1 | | 218.8 | | 282.8 | | 131.8 | |
Income before income taxes | | 125.4 | | 246.2 | | 83.2 | | 110.1 | | 118.1 | |
Net income | | 134.8 | | 214.5 | | 72.6 | | 63.8 | | 93.2 | |
Operating income | | 105.5 | | 127.3 | | 115.7 | | 96.1 | | 87.6 | |
Net income per diluted common share | | 1.80 | | 2.9 | | 0.97 | | 0.85 | | 1.24 | |
Operating income per diluted common share | | 1.41 | | 1.70 | | 1.54 | | 1.28 | | 1.17 | |
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Total investments and cash | | $ | 2,126.4 | | $ | 2,222.1 | | $ | 2,061.9 | | $ | 1,710.8 | | $ | 1,549.6 | |
Total assets | | 2,716.7 | | 2,857.9 | | 2,719.9 | | 2,322.1 | | 1,913.7 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 522.4 | | 625.4 | | 613.3 | | 500.3 | | 444.6 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 297.4 | | 522.6 | | 458.8 | | 401.1 | | 171.0 | |
Long-term debt | | 197.3 | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | 150.0 | | 150.0 | |
Shareholders’ equity | | 1,487.9 | | 1,437.6 | | 1,257.2 | | 1,061.6 | | 994.5 | |
Book value per share | | 19.58 | | 19.17 | | 16.76 | | 14.15 | | 13.26 | |
Assured Guaranty Corp. Statutory Data | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 70.7 | | $ | 66.6 | | $ | 46.2 | | $ | 44.9 | | $ | 60.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 265.4 | | 255.6 | | 287.0 | | 334.0 | | 323.4 | |
Contingency reserve | | 455.6 | | 400.0 | | 307.0 | | 223.1 | | 180.6 | |
Statutory capital | | 721.0 | | 655.6 | | 594.0 | | 557.2 | | 504.0 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 418.0 | | 466.7 | | 369.9 | | 351.5 | | 330.2 | |
Present value of installment premiums | | 279.0 | | 293.3 | | 220.4 | | 149.2 | | 89.1 | |
Premium resources | | 697.0 | | 760.0 | | 590.3 | | 500.7 | | 419.3 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 31.5 | | 55.0 | | 42.4 | | 18.2 | | 16.0 | |
Standby line of credit / stop loss | | 255.0 | | 255.0 | | 415.0 | | 450.0 | | 250.0 | |
Total claims-paying resources | | $ | 1,705.5 | | $ | 1,725.6 | | $ | 1,641.6 | | $ | 1,526.1 | | $ | 1,189.3 | |
Financial Ratios | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated GAAP | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | -24.6 | % | 46.5 | % | 48.6 | % | 60.5 | % | 21.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 68.1 | % | 37.2 | % | 35.5 | % | 30.6 | % | 61.2 | % |
Combined ratio | | 43.5 | % | 83.7 | % | 84.1 | % | 91.1 | % | 82.8 | % |
Assured Guaranty Corp. Statutory | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | -14.8 | % | 25.9 | % | 35.4 | % | 18.3 | % | -0.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 124.3 | % | 31.5 | % | 44.8 | % | 50.2 | % | 45.8 | % |
Combined ratio | | 109.5 | % | 57.4 | % | 80.2 | % | 68.5 | % | 45.1 | % |
Other Financial Information | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding | | $ | 134,050 | | $ | 130,047 | | $ | 124,082 | | $ | 117,909 | | $ | 102,744 | |
Net par amount outstanding | | 92,467 | | 87,524 | | 80,394 | | 75,249 | | 65,756 | |
19
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended September 30 | | % Change versus 3Q-03 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | % Change versus YTD 2003 | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | 2003 | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 39.4 | | $ | 57.0 | | -31 | % | $ | 133.3 | | $ | 172.4 | | -23 | % |
Net written premiums | | 3.7 | | 56.4 | | -93 | % | 44.4 | | 209.2 | | -79 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | $ | 40.2 | | $ | 44.4 | | -9 | % | $ | 85.2 | | $ | 131.9 | | -35 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 13.1 | | 12.0 | | 9 | % | 39.1 | | 34.8 | | 12 | % |
Other income | | — | | 0.2 | | -100 | % | — | | 0.7 | | -100 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 53.3 | | $ | 56.6 | | -6 | % | $ | 124.3 | | $ | 167.4 | | -26 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 12.1 | | 14.3 | | -15 | % | (1.4 | ) | 37.2 | | -104 | % |
Profit commission expenses | | — | | 0.2 | | -100 | % | 0.2 | | 1.1 | | -82 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 13.1 | | 11.5 | | 14 | % | 25.3 | | 37.3 | | -32 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 6.6 | | 5.9 | | 12 | % | 31.2 | | 15.9 | | 96 | % |
Goodwill impairment | | — | | — | | �� | | 1.6 | | — | | — | |
Total expenses | | $ | 31.8 | | $ | 31.9 | | 0 | % | $ | 56.9 | | $ | 91.5 | | -38 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 21.5 | | 24.7 | | -13 | % | 67.4 | | 75.9 | | -11 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 5.0 | | 6.4 | | -22 | % | 16.2 | | 19.9 | | -19 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 16.5 | | $ | 18.3 | | -10 | % | $ | 51.2 | | $ | 56.0 | | -9 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.4 | | — | | 0 | % | 0.3 | | 1.4 | | -79 | % |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 4.8 | | 3.3 | | 45 | % | 22.2 | | 7.6 | | 192 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 21.6 | | 0 | % | $ | 73.7 | | $ | 65.0 | | 13 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
20
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | |
| | September 30, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value | | $ | 1,169.2 | | $ | 1,126.7 | |
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market | | 73.5 | | 56.7 | |
Total investments | | 1,242.8 | | 1,183.5 | |
| | | | | |
Cash | | 10.0 | | 22.1 | |
Accrued investment income | | 15.3 | | 14.0 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 146.8 | | 146.9 | |
Premium receivable | | 39.7 | | 28.4 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 45.1 | | 7.3 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 30.9 | | — | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 16.1 | | — | |
Funds held under reinsurance contracts | | 2.1 | | 1.8 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 87.1 | |
Other assets | | 8.8 | | 13.1 | |
Total assets | | $ | 1,642.8 | | $ | 1,504.2 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 386.1 | | $ | 389.0 | |
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 117.6 | | 106.3 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 4.1 | | 4.0 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 54.6 | | 5.2 | |
Deferred federal income taxes payable | | 38.6 | | 78.1 | |
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments | | — | | 18.1 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 6.8 | | 5.1 | |
Other liabilities | | 46.9 | | 19.3 | |
Total liabilities | | 654.7 | | 625.1 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 15.0 | | 15.0 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 385.8 | | 353.3 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 54.7 | | 45.3 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (6.0 | ) | (2.8 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 538.7 | | 468.4 | |
Total shareholder’s equity | | 988.1 | | 879.1 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | $ | 1,642.8 | | $ | 1,504.2 | |
21
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
| | Amortized Cost | | Fair Value | | Pre-Tax Book Yield | | Duration | | Annualized Investment Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | 52.3 | | 53.6 | | 4.0 | % | 2.8 | | 2.1 | |
Foreign government securities | | 14.6 | | 14.7 | | 5.1 | % | 3.0 | | 0.7 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 318.8 | | 337.2 | | 4.5 | % | 7.2 | | 14.3 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 435.9 | | 475.0 | | 5.0 | % | 7.4 | | 21.9 | |
Corporate securities | | 71.5 | | 74.9 | | 5.1 | % | 4.8 | | 3.7 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 186.0 | | 189.1 | | 4.8 | % | 3.1 | | 8.9 | |
PACs | | 8.5 | | 8.5 | | 3.7 | % | 3.0 | | 0.3 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 15.9 | | 16.4 | | 3.8 | % | 2.2 | | 0.6 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | 1,103.5 | | 1,169.2 | | 4.8 | % | 6.1 | | 52.6 | |
Short-term investments | | 73.5 | | 73.5 | | 1.2 | % | 0.1 | | 0.9 | |
Total investments available for sale | | 1,177.0 | | 1,242.8 | | 4.6 | % | 5.8 | | 53.5 | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | | | |
Maturity Schedule: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Due within one year | | 14.2 | | 1.2 | % | | | | | | |
Due in one to five years | | 120.7 | | 10.3 | % | | | | | | |
Due in five to ten years | | 210.4 | | 18.0 | % | | | | | | |
Due in greater than ten years | | 626.5 | | 53.6 | % | | | | | | |
Mortgage-backed securities | | 197.5 | | 16.9 | % | | | | | | |
Total | | 1,169.2 | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | | | |
Quality Distribution: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treasury | | 13.8 | | 1.2 | % | | | | | | |
Agency | | 39.8 | | 3.4 | % | | | | | | |
AAA | | 830.0 | | 71.0 | % | | | | | | |
AA | | 202.1 | | 17.3 | % | | | | | | |
A | | 83.5 | | 7.1 | % | | | | | | |
BBB | | — | | 0.0 | % | | | | | | |
Total | | 1,169.2 | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | |
22
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)
| | As of September 30, 2004: | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Public Finance | | | | | | | |
General obligation bonds | | $ | 10,183 | | 13.6 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 8,816 | | 11.8 | % | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 8,479 | | 11.3 | % | A+ | |
Transportation | | 5,902 | | 7.9 | % | A | |
Healthcare | | 3,950 | | 5.3 | % | A | |
Structured municipal (1) | | 2,414 | | 3.2 | % | AAA | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 1,858 | | 2.5 | % | A- | |
Housing | | 992 | | 1.3 | % | AA- | |
Other public finance (2) | | 870 | | 1.2 | % | A- | |
Higher education | | 844 | | 1.1 | % | A+ | |
Total public finance | | $ | 44,309 | | 59.3 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | |
CDO’s (3) | | $ | 14,295 | | 19.1 | % | AA+ | |
Mortgage-backed & home equity | | 6,076 | | 8.1 | % | AA- | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 5,066 | | 6.8 | % | AA- | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 3,417 | | 4.6 | % | A- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 1,578 | | 2.1 | % | AA | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | 0.0 | % | — | |
Total structured finance | | $ | 30,432 | | 40.7 | % | AA | |
| | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 74,740 | | 100.0 | % | A+ | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(5) Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7) Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(8) Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
23
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Ratings (1) | | September 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | | December 31, 2003 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 21,619 | | 28.9 | % | $ | 22,268 | | 28.4 | % |
AA/Aa | | 16,002 | | 21.4 | % | 16,211 | | 20.7 | % |
A/A | | 24,989 | | 33.4 | % | 27,208 | | 34.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 10,581 | | 14.2 | % | 11,258 | | 14.4 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1,549 | | 2.1 | % | 1,454 | | 1.9 | % |
| | $ | 74,740 | | 100 | % | $ | 78,399 | | 100 | % |
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of September 30, 2004
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 6,021 | | 8.1 | % |
New York | | 4,337 | | 5.8 | % |
Texas | | 2,614 | | 3.5 | % |
Illinois | | 2,517 | | 3.4 | % |
Florida | | 2,289 | | 3.1 | % |
New Jersey | | 1,914 | | 2.6 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 1,714 | | 2.3 | % |
Massachusetts | | 1,547 | | 2.1 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,428 | | 1.9 | % |
Washington | | 1,254 | | 1.7 | % |
Other - Muni | | 15,514 | | 20.8 | % |
Other - Non Muni | | 27,650 | | 37.0 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 68,799 | | 92.1 | % |
| | | | | | | |
International: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 4,290 | | 5.7 | % |
Australia | | 446 | | 0.6 | % |
Brazil | | 329 | | 0.4 | % |
Italy | | 231 | | 0.3 | % |
Canada | | 203 | | 0.3 | % |
Other | | 441 | | 0.6 | % |
Total International | | $ | 5,941 | | 7.9 | % |
| | | | | |
Total | | $ | 74,740 | | 100.0 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure
| | September 30, 2004 | | | | December 31, 2003 | | | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 15,552 | | 76.8 | % | $ | 17,584 | | 74.9 | % |
AA/Aa | | 2,539 | | 12.5 | % | 2,342 | | 10.0 | % |
A/A | | 1,468 | | 7.2 | % | 2,420 | | 10.3 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 608 | | 3.0 | % | 1,011 | | 4.3 | % |
Below investment grade | | 91 | | 0.4 | % | 135 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 20,258 | | 100 | % | $ | 23,491 | | 100 | % |
(1) Assured Guaranty internal rating
24
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Non-Investment Grade Exposure
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (8) | |
| | | | | | | |
Public Finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 20.3 | | 374.4 | | BB- | |
Healthcare | | 13.5 | | 103.2 | | BB | |
General obligation bonds | | 12.2 | | $ | 47.4 | | BB | |
Other public finance (1) | | 27.1 | | 44.1 | | BB- | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 17.7 | | 15.7 | | BB- | |
Municipal utilities | | 11.6 | | 14.7 | | C | |
Tax backed | | 10.8 | | 8.4 | | BB- | |
Housing | | 8.8 | | 3.7 | | B | |
Higher education | | 12.3 | | 1.0 | | B | |
Structured municipal (2) | | — | | — | | — | |
Total Public finance | | 18.5 | | 612.7 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | |
Consumer receivables (3) | | 3.1 | | 525.9 | | BB | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 9.1 | | 185.9 | | B- | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 7.8 | | 132.7 | | B | |
CDO’s (5) | | 3.8 | | $ | 91.0 | | B- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 1.4 | | 0.7 | | C | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | — | | — | |
Total structured finance | | 5.0 | | 936.2 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total exposure | | 10.3 | | $ | 1,548.8 | | BB- | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(5) Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7) Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(8) Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
25
Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding(1) | | Rating(2) | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 702 | | AA- | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | 641 | | A- | |
New York State Metro Trans Auth | | 476 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation | | 475 | | A+ | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 472 | | A | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 467 | | A- | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 464 | | A- | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 464 | | A- | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 448 | | A | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 445 | | AA- | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 425 | | A | |
Energy Northwest | | 411 | | AA- | |
New York State General Obligation | | 392 | | AA | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 387 | | AA+ | |
New York City General Obligation | | 360 | | A | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans | | 314 | | AA | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 305 | | A+ | |
Illinois State General Obligation & Leases | | 296 | | AA | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board Of Education | | 292 | | A+ | |
Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina | | 270 | | AA- | |
Massachusetts State Turnpike Authority Metro | | 267 | | A- | |
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System | | 261 | | A | |
Intermountain Power Agency | | 243 | | A+ | |
Pennsylvania State General Obligation | | 236 | | AA | |
Los Angeles California Unified School District | | 235 | | AA- | |
| | | | | |
Total Top 25 Public Finance Exposures | | $ | 9,747 | | | |
(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company
(2) Assured Guaranty internal rating
26
Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of September 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding(1) | | Rating(2) | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | $ | 884 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 | | 628 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 575 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 563 | | A+ | |
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust | | 550 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 540 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 500 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 470 | | AA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 430 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 417 | | AAA | |
Private Sub-Prime RMBS | | 361 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Providian Gateway Master Trust | | 360 | | BB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 350 | | AAA | |
Private Automobile Lease Securitization | | 350 | | BBB | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 347 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 344 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 300 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 291 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG CDO | | 281 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 278 | | AAA | |
Metris Master Credit Card Trust | | 276 | | BB | |
Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities | | 276 | | AAA | |
| | | | | |
Total Top 25 Structured Finance Exposures | | $ | 10,763 | | | |
(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company
(2) Assured Guaranty internal rating
27
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Statutory Capital & Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of: | |
| | September 30, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve(1) | | $ | 418 | | $ | 467 | |
Contingency reserve | | 456 | | 400 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 265 | | 256 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 55 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserve | | $ | 1,171 | | $ | 1,178 | |
| | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | |
Policyholder’s surplus | | $ | 265 | | $ | 256 | |
Contingency reserve | | 456 | | 400 | |
Statutory capital | | 721 | | 656 | |
Unearned premium reserve(2) | | 418 | | 467 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 55 | |
Total policyholders’ reserves | | 450 | | 522 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 279 | | 293 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 255 | | 255 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,705 | | $ | 1,726 | |
(1) AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements
(2) Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums
28
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended September 30 | | % Change versus | | 9 Months Ended September 30 | | % Change versus | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | 3Q-03 | | 2004 | | 2003 | | YTD 2003 | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 55.8 | | $ | 56.2 | | -1 | % | $ | 35.5 | | $ | 141.9 | | -75 | % |
Net written premiums | | 68.8 | | 53.6 | | 28 | % | (26.3 | ) | 123.9 | | -121 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 30.6 | | 33.7 | | -9 | % | 45.5 | | 91.9 | | -50 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 10.0 | | 11.8 | | -15 | % | 31.9 | | 37.1 | | -14 | % |
Other income | | — | | — | | — | | 0.6 | | 0.4 | | 50 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 40.6 | | $ | 45.5 | | -11 | % | $ | 78.0 | | $ | 129.4 | | -40 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 9.5 | | 18.6 | | -49 | % | (30.8 | ) | 54.7 | | -156 | % |
Profit commission expenses | | 1.0 | | 1.6 | | -38 | % | 11.2 | | 6.4 | | 75 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 1.1 | | 4.1 | | -73 | % | 10.5 | | 8.9 | | 18 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 2.7 | | 6.4 | | -58 | % | 11.3 | | 15.4 | | -27 | % |
Total expenses | | $ | 14.3 | | $ | 30.7 | | -53 | % | $ | 2.2 | | $ | 85.4 | | -97 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 26.3 | | 14.8 | | 78 | % | 75.8 | | 44.0 | | 72 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 2.3 | | 1.5 | | 53 | % | 6.2 | | 6.2 | | 0 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 24.0 | | $ | 13.3 | | 80 | % | $ | 69.6 | | $ | 37.8 | | 84 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.4 | | 1.0 | | -60 | % | 6.8 | | 2.7 | | 152 | % |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 5.3 | | 9.3 | | -43 | % | — | | 12.4 | | -100 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 23.6 | | 26 | % | $ | 76.4 | | $ | 52.9 | | 44 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]
29
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | |
| | September 30, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value | | $ | 779.5 | | $ | 925.5 | |
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market | | 90.1 | | 80.8 | |
Total investments | | 869.6 | | 1,006.3 | |
| | | | | |
Cash | | 2.5 | | 9.6 | |
Accrued investment income | | 7.0 | | 9.7 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 36.7 | | 28.3 | |
Premium receivable | | 40.8 | | 155.6 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 10.1 | | 7.7 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 157.0 | | 122.1 | |
Value of reinsurance business assumed | | — | | 14.2 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 12.8 | | 12.1 | |
Funds held under reinsurance contracts | | 6.6 | | 6.5 | |
Other assets | | 10.3 | | 7.3 | |
Total assets | | $ | 1,153.4 | | $ | 1,379.6 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 170.9 | | $ | 240.4 | |
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 181.8 | | 416.3 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 53.1 | | 67.2 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 12.8 | | 4.9 | |
Deferred federal income taxes payable | | (18.3 | ) | (22.8 | ) |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 52.2 | | 9.6 | |
Other liabilities | | 2.5 | | 31.6 | |
Total liabilities | | 455.1 | | 747.3 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 1.4 | | 1.4 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 388.0 | | 386.2 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 25.4 | | 35.8 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (1.2 | ) | (2.6 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 284.7 | | 211.5 | |
Total shareholder’s equity | | 698.3 | | 632.3 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | $ | 1,153.4 | | $ | 1,379.6 | |
30
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)
| | As of September 30, 2004: | |
| | Net Par | | | | | |
Sector | | Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Public Finance | | | | | | | |
General obligation bonds | | $ | 2,613 | | 14.7 | % | A+ | |
Healthcare | | 2,498 | | 14.1 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 2,184 | | 12.3 | % | AA- | |
Tax backed | | 1,474 | | 8.3 | % | AA- | |
Transportation | | 973 | | 5.5 | % | A | |
Structured municipal (1) | | 851 | | 4.8 | % | AAA | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 408 | | 2.3 | % | BBB+ | |
Other public finance (2) | | 172 | | 1.0 | % | BBB+ | |
Housing | | 164 | | 0.9 | % | A+ | |
Higher education | | 132 | | 0.7 | % | AA- | |
Total public finance | | $ | 11,469 | | 64.7 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | |
CDO’s (3) | | $ | 2,240 | | 12.6 | % | AAA | |
Single name corporate CDS (4) | | 1,779 | | 10.0 | % | AA- | |
Mortgage-backed & home equity | | 1,052 | | 5.9 | % | A | |
Commercial receivables (5) | | 533 | | 3.0 | % | A | |
Consumer receivables (6) | | 327 | | 1.8 | % | BBB | |
Other structured finance (7) | | 326 | | 1.8 | % | A+ | |
Total structured finance | | $ | 6,257 | | 35.3 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 17,726 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 2,437 | | NA | | NA | |
(1). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2). Other municipal: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(5). Single name corporate credit default swaps (“CDS”) includes CDS of Investor-owned utilities.
(6). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(8). Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
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Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile – Page 2
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Ratings (1) | | September 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | | December 31, 2003 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 5,380 | | 30.3 | % | $ | 4,106 | | 45.0 | % |
AA/Aa | | 3,034 | | 17.1 | % | 1,375 | | 15.1 | % |
A/A | | 6,882 | | 38.8 | % | 2,800 | | 30.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 2,392 | | 13.5 | % | 793 | | 8.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 38 | | 0.2 | % | 50 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 17,726 | | 100 | % | $ | 9,125 | | 100 | % |
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of September 30, 2004
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 1,303 | | 7.3 | % |
New York | | 1,189 | | 6.7 | % |
Texas | | 627 | | 3.5 | % |
Ohio | | 517 | | 2.9 | % |
Florida | | 481 | | 2.7 | % |
New Jersey | | 446 | | 2.5 | % |
Illinois | | 440 | | 2.5 | % |
Wisconsin | | 389 | | 2.2 | % |
Washington | | 365 | | 2.1 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 349 | | 2.0 | % |
Other - Muni | | 4,480 | | 25.3 | % |
Other - Non Muni | | 4,871 | | 27.5 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 15,456 | | 87.2 | % |
| | | | | |
International: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 1,058 | | 6.0 | % |
Germany | | 336 | | 1.9 | % |
France | | 121 | | 0.7 | % |
Japan | | 109 | | 0.6 | % |
Netherlands | | 96 | | 0.5 | % |
Other | | 550 | | 3.1 | % |
Total International | | $ | 2,270 | | 12.8 | % |
| | | | | |
Total | | $ | 17,726 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure
Ratings (1) | | Sept. 30, 2004 Net Par Outstanding | | % | | December 31, 2003 Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 4,240 | | 65.1 | % | $ | 3,119 | | 84.4 | % |
AA/Aa | | 390 | | 6.0 | % | 192 | | 5.2 | % |
A/A | | 1,422 | | 21.8 | % | 155 | | 4.2 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 449 | | 6.9 | % | 206 | | 5.6 | % |
Below investment grade | | 17 | | 0.3 | % | 24 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 6,518 | | 100 | % | $ | 3,695 | | 100 | % |
(1) Assured Guaranty internal rating
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Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Capital & Claims Paying Resources(1)
(dollars in millions)
| | As of: | |
| | September 30, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve(2) | | $ | 161 | | $ | 233 | |
Contingency reserve | | — | | — | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 612 | | 560 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 182 | | 390 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserve | | $ | 955 | | $ | 1,183 | |
| | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | |
Policyholder’s surplus | | $ | 612 | | $ | 560 | |
Contingency reserve | | — | | — | |
Statutory capital | | 612 | | 560 | |
Unearned premium reserve(2) | | 161 | | 233 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 182 | | 390 | |
Total policyholders’ reserves | | 343 | | 623 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 112 | | 90 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | — | | — | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,067 | | $ | 1,273 | |
(1) AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements
(2) Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums
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Endnotes related to non-GAAP measures discussed in the operating supplement:
(a) PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year. We use 6% as the present value discount because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented. We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.
(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder's equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder's equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of; the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%). The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value. Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company's in-force premium and capital base.
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| Investor contact: |
| Sabra Purtill |
| (212) 408-6044 |
| spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | Chris McNamee |
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda | (212) 261-5509 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com |
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