4. Significant Accounting Judgments, Estimates, and Assumptions
The preparation of the consolidated financial statements requires the JBIC Group to make judgments, estimates, and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of revenues, expenses, assets, and liabilities, and the disclosure of contingent liabilities, at the reporting date.
The key assumptions concerning the future and other key sources of estimation uncertainty at the reporting date, that have a significant risk of resulting in a material adjustment to the carrying amounts of assets and liabilities within the next financial year, are described below. The JBIC Group based its key assumptions and estimates on parameters available when the consolidated financial statements were prepared. Existing circumstances and assumptions about future developments, however, may change due to market changes or circumstances arising beyond the control of the JBIC Group. Such changes are reflected in the assumptions when they occur.
Fair value of financial instruments
Where the fair value of financial assets and financial liabilities cannot be measured based on quoted prices in active markets, their fair value is determined using valuation techniques including DCF models. The JBIC Group uses its judgment in selecting valuation techniques and the inputs to these models are derived from observable markets, where possible. However, inputs that are not derived from observable markets are used for the estimation of the fair value for some financial instruments based on the JBIC Group’s estimates and judgments.
The JBIC Group’s estimates and judgments are continually evaluated and updated in line with market conditions, and these changes could directly affect the fair values of these financial instruments.
See a detailed discussion in Note 35 “Fair Value of Financial Assets and Liabilities” and Note 36 “Fair Value Hierarchy.”
Expected Credit Loss
ECL represents the JBIC Group’s estimates of expected credit losses on financial instruments subject to impairment at the reporting date. The JBIC Group is required to exercise judgment in making assumptions and estimates.
The JBIC Group’s estimates and judgments are continually evaluated and updated in response to changes in the economic environment and in the light of new information. These changes could lead to a revision of the amount of impairment losses.
ECL is disclosed in more detail in Note 11 “Loans and Other Receivables,” Note 19 “Financial Guarantee Contracts” and Note 30 “Impairment Losses on Financial Assets.” The credit risk is described in more detail in Note 38 “Maximum Exposure to Credit Risk” and the subsequent notes.
The spread of COVID-19 is causing political and economic impacts on borrowers’ countries or regions as well as impacting individual borrowers. The JBIC Group estimates risk parameters (i.e. PD, LGD and EAD) in consideration of information available on March 31, 2020 and measures ECL. Furthermore, to appropriately reflect uncertainties in the economic environment, the JBIC Group performed an additional analysis to assess the relationship between defaults that occurred during the financial crisis in 2008 and related macroeconomic indicators at that time, and has made necessary adjustments to the ECL model based on the analysis. As a result of these adjustments, “Loans and other receivables” decreased by ¥15,419 million and “Financial guarantee contracts” increased by ¥9,926 million, respectively, in the consolidated statement of financial position as of March 31, 2020. “Impairment losses on financial assets” increased by ¥25,346 million in the consolidated income statement for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2020.
According to the world economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) in April 2020, the spread of COVID-19 will continue to cause effects approximately over one year. The JBIC Group used this outlook and calculated ECL based on the assumption that macroeconomic indicators will recover in 2021. The IMF has not released its long-term economic outlook due to the uncertainty in the economic environment. The JBIC Group uses the prospects of macroeconomic indicators for 2022 and thereafter, which were published by the IMF in October 2019. As the future outlook is uncertain, the situation of COVID-19 or its economic impacts may show a more significant change than initially expected. In such a case, ECL estimates for the next fiscal year may change.
Post-employment benefits
The present value of defined benefit obligations and related costs are determined using actuarial valuations. An actuarial valuation involves making various assumptions, which may differ from actual developments in the future. These include the determination of the discount rate, future salary increases, mortality rates, and future pension increases. Due to the complexity of the valuation, the underlying assumptions, and its long-term nature, a defined benefit obligation is highly sensitive to changes in these assumptions. All assumptions are reviewed at each reporting date.
In determining the appropriate discount rate, the JBIC Group considers the market yield of high-quality corporate bonds in the respective currency, with extrapolated maturities corresponding to the expected duration of the defined benefit obligation.
See Note 21 “Employee Benefits” for further details about the assumptions used.
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