The following table provides a breakdown of our total NAV and NAV per share by share class as of May 31, 2023 (dollar amounts in thousands, except per share data):
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
NAV Per Share | | Class S Shares | | | Class T Shares | | | Class D Shares | | | Class M Shares | | | Class I Shares | | | Class F Shares | | | Class Y Shares | | | Total | |
Net asset value | | $ | 1,520,959 | | | $ | 38,573 | | | $ | 19,134 | | | $ | 118,088 | | | $ | 1,007,413 | | | $ | 18,764 | | | $ | 21,933 | | | $ | 2,744,864 | |
Number of outstanding shares | | | 60,699,118 | | | | 1,554,304 | | | | 769,738 | | | | 4,737,360 | | | | 41,554,599 | | | | 749,187 | | | | 906,648 | | | | 110,970,954 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
NAV per Share as of May 31, 2023 | | $ | 25.0573 | | | $ | 24.8167 | | | $ | 24.8573 | | | $ | 24.9270 | | | $ | 24.2431 | | | $ | 25.0457 | | | $ | 24.1911 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Market Update
Driven by solid economic data, yields on 2- year and 10-year Treasuries moved higher in May and above the range they had generally traded in since the regional bank pressures in late March. The 2-year Treasury ended the month 33 bps higher, at 4.39%, while the 10-year Treasury rose 18 bps, to 3.63%. Against this backdrop, the Bloomberg Agg returned -1.09% in May. While short-term Treasury rates crossed 5% earlier this year, rapid swings in investor sentiment and economic data have resulted in significant volatility, which, at times, reached levels last seen during the GFC.
Amid elevated mortgage rates and a pullback in CRE bank lending, CRE deal volume retreated further in April, nearing levels last seen in early 2020.1 CRE transaction volume fell -72% from a year earlier.1 The decline was relatively uniform across the sector as three of the four major property types saw their deal volume fall in the low- to mid-70% range from a year earlier.1 Office (-63%) fared better as it generally had a lower hurdle to beat from 2022.1
Property prices also continued their march lower in April, down -9.4% compared to an annual decline of -8.0% in March. Outside of hotel, which continues to benefit from strong travel demand, all major property types declined. Apartment prices (-12.1%) again led the way lower as buyers and sellers seek a new equilibrium following several years of steep price increases. Industrial (-0.8%) saw the smallest price decline in April.1
Despite the repricing of CRE asset values, the underlying cash flow fundamentals for most property types remain stable. National vacancy rates are either declining or below pre-COVID levels in three of the four major sectors (office being the outlier). The delinquency rate for CMBS rose in May driven by rising retail (6.67%) and office (4.02%) delinquencies, yet the overall rate of 3.62% remains well contained relative to prior periods of stress.2 Meanwhile, distressed sales made up just 1.4% of total sales in Q1 2023, up just 10 bps from a year earlier and well below than the 2% average for the five-year period before the pandemic.1 The negligible level of distressed sales across both periods underscores the more prudent underwriting of the past decade, as well as lenders’ ability to continue providing capital in this uncertain backdrop.
Approximately $400 billion in par value of CRE loans will mature this year. At roughly 8% of total outstanding debt, this level is not dissimilar from the average year historically. Declining CRE prices and regional bank stress increase the uncertainty around debt financing capacity in the near-term, particularly among traditional CRE lenders. However, we see three main supports that should make the debt market better positioned relative to the GFC, including 1) a prolonged run of price appreciation and rent growth 2) conservate underwriting standards and 3) better lender diversity. In fact, alternative lenders—those outside banks and CMBS—have accounted for between 30% and 40% of the growth in CRE lending over the past five years and remain well positioned given significant levels of dry powder. Many of these lenders do not face the same headwinds to financing their operations as banks (deposit flight) and CMBS (uncooperative public markets) do. Even as certain players pull back, there are more than double the number of unique lenders to office properties active today as there were just a decade ago.
1 | MSCI Real Capital Analytics, as of April 30, 2023. Latest data available. |
2 | Trepp, as of May 31, 2023 |