Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities
On January 28, 2022, our board of directors approved the issuance of up to $50,000,000 in shares of our Class I common stock in a private placement exempt from registration under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Private Placement”). On June 22, 2023, we accepted a subscription from an institutional investor to purchase $66,667 in Class I shares in the Private Placement. On July 3, 2023, we sold and issued to such institutional investor approximately 2,750 Class I shares at the per share purchase price of $24.2431, which is equal to the NAV per Class I share as of May 31, 2023.
Market Update
Driven by stronger than expected economic data and the growing likelihood of additional Fed rate hikes, Treasury yields continued to climb in June, particularly at the short end of the curve. 2-year Treasury yields rose 49 bps to end the month at 4.88% while the 10-year Treasury yield rose just 17 bps, to 3.82%. Against this backdrop, the Bloomberg Agg returned -0.36% in June, its second consecutive monthly decline as duration-sensitive assets have again felt the impact of rising rates.
Commercial real estate (CRE) deal volume retreated further in May and has now fallen -40% or more for the past seven months.1 Recent declines have been driven by elevated mortgage rates, which have risen 210 basis points from a year earlier and a pullback in CRE bank lending.
After soaring 30% from July 2020 to July 2022, property prices have declined for nearly a year driven largely by the rapid rise in interest rates.1 The RCA All Property CPPI has fallen more than -12% since July 2022, the result of a roughly 70bps increase in cap rates.1 Multifamily, a sector with a relatively high interest rate sensitivity given its lower cap rates and generally higher leverage levels, has seen the sharpest decline (-13.8%).1
Thus far, the price correction has been relatively orderly as capital markets have not seized up, and the rise in cap rates generally reflects the increase in the risk-free rate rather than a widening risk premium. The primary reason for this has been the steady fundamentals in most property sectors, which can be largely attributed to a U.S. economy that has weathered tight monetary policy in impressive fashion. Additionally, there have been some recent signs that sentiment across the CRE market may be near troughing, including improvements in the latest Real Estate Roundtable survey.
National vacancy rates are either declining or below pre-COVID levels in three of the four major sectors (Office being the outlier) as developers have generally remained disciplined in adding new property types particularly in the retail, hotel, and office sectors—real construction spending in each sits well below the peak of each of the prior three economic cycles.1 Distressed activity has risen slightly over the past year, driven largely by a concentration in retail/mall properties. However, distressed sales made up just 2% of total sales in Q1 2023, matching the average of the five-year period before the pandemic. Given that distressed activity has remained so low thus far underscores the more prudent underwriting of the past decade, as well as lenders’ ability to continue providing capital in this uncertain backdrop.
While many investors are concerned that rising interest rates and an increasingly restrained debt market will create a financing vacuum at a time when many commercial properties are in need of capital, the CRE capital markets are significantly more robust than they were in the leadup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Not only is the debt market much more diversified – lenders outside banks and CMBS have sourced close to 40% of CRE lending growth in the past 5 years – but loans have been made with much more prudent terms than in the past.1 Crucially, the lower leverage point combined with a long run of price appreciation over the past decade means that in most cases, borrowers retain significant equity in their properties. This increases the incentive for them to work through the current period of stress rather than simply turn the property over to their lender, which is the dynamic that helped create the vicious cycle during the GFC.
1 | MSCI Real Capital Analytics, as of May 31, 2023, latest data available. |