The following table provides a breakdown of our total NAV and NAV per share by share class as of September 30, 2023 (dollar amounts in thousands, except per share data):
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NAV Per Share | | Class S Shares | | | Class T Shares | | | Class D Shares | | | Class M Shares | | | Class I Shares | | | Class F Shares | | | Class Y Shares | | | Total | |
Net asset value | | $ | 1,609,044 | | | $ | 34,260 | | | $ | 16,824 | | | $ | 119,622 | | | $ | 1,124,970 | | | $ | 19,018 | | | $ | 21,944 | | | $ | 2,945,682 | |
Number of outstanding shares | | | 64,127,317 | | | | 1,378,393 | | | | 675,550 | | | | 4,792,423 | | | | 46,397,317 | | | | 755,420 | | | | 906,648 | | | | 119,033,068 | |
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NAV per Share as of September 30, 2023 | | $ | 25.0914 | | | $ | 24.8547 | | | $ | 24.9043 | | | $ | 24.9607 | | | $ | 24.2464 | | | $ | 25.1754 | | | $ | 24.2039 | | | | | |
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Market Update
Treasury yields accelerated their rise in September as investors increasingly accepted that rates may remain elevated for an extended period. Long-term rates led the move higher, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 48bps to end the month at 4.57%. Against this backdrop, the Bloomberg Agg returned -2.54% in September and is down -1.21% year to date.
Rising borrowing costs along with expectations for a higher-for-longer rate environment continued to sap deal activity and place pressure on property prices in August. Year to date, transaction volumes are down -58% from the same period in 2022.1 Commercial property prices have declined -5.6% year to date and are on pace to fall in two consecutive years for the first time since 2008-2010 as the market recalibrates to a higher mortgage rate environment.1 While property values remain under pressure, monthly declines have generally flattened over the past several months or turned slightly positive (Retail).
Fundamentals underpinning most commercial real estate (CRE) assets (outside of Office) remain relatively supportive. Despite earlier concerns over a potential surge in delinquencies, delinquency rates have risen slightly this year from 2.9% to 4.4%, driven primarily by stress in the office sector.2
Consumer-centric sectors continue to benefit from healthy household spending and muted new construction. Retail has seen declining vacancies and growth in net operating income (NOI) year-over-year.1 Rent growth has slowed in the multifamily and industrial sectors, yet the secular demand story remains firmly in place across both property types. Multifamily continues to benefit from a national housing shortage while industrial demand remains firm amid growing manufacturing spending and supply chain onshoring coupled with firm e-commerce sales.
Despite concerns that elevated interest rates and an increasingly restrained debt market will create a financing vacuum at a time when many commercial properties are in need of capital, the CRE capital markets are significantly more robust than during the leadup to the GFC. Not only is the debt market much more diversified—lenders outside banks and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have sourced close to 40% of CRE lending growth in the past five years—but loans also have been made with more prudent terms than in the past.1
Ultimately, we see constraints in the CRE bank lending market in the months ahead, rather than a broad retreat. Yet we believe this environment should provide ample opportunity for well-capitalized alternative lenders to deploy capital today.
Portfolio Update
We generated positive total returns across all share classes in September (see table below) driven by a stable, attractive level of income and appreciation in our net asset value (NAV).
| • | | The new current annualized distribution rate is 7.62% for Class I shares, 7.12% for Class D shares, 7.10% for Class M shares, 6.51% for Class S shares and 6.58% for Class T shares, based on the November 1, 2023 transaction price. |
1 | MSCI Real Capital Analytics, as of August 31, 2023. |
2 | Trepp as of September 30, 2023. Based on CMBS delinquency rate. |