Construction activity rose most significantly in the multifamily and industrial sectors, as developers took advantage of surging rents and low financing costs in 2021 and the first half of 2022. But the market is now experiencing the peak period for delivery of those projects and expecting a rapid descent in new supply through at least 2027, which should keep fundamentals stout.
Office remains the clear outlier as a massive retrenchment among tenants continues to drive net operating income lower while the vacancy rate steadily rises.1
Ultimately, we expect transaction and lending activity to pick up amid a lower-rate environment in the coming quarters but believe the outlook for property values—and therefore, CRE equity investors—is much foggier as base rates today are well above those from five and 10 years ago, a tenor that represents a normal investment holding period for a CRE property. Against this backdrop, we continue to view this year as the beginning of the next phase of a new CRE cycle that should favor income-centric strategies. Importantly, we believe alternative lenders continue to be in an excellent position to take market share as transaction volume improves and banks remain constrained.
Performance Update
We generated positive total returns across all share classes in September 2024 driven by distributions paid during the month and stability in our net asset value (NAV).
Year to date (YTD) through September 30, 2024, we have returned 5.87% based on the Class I share driven by stability in our NAV, which is flat YTD, and the consistency in our distribution.
We have delivered 54 consecutive months of positive total returns across varying macroeconomic conditions and financial markets including a highly volatile rate environment. We met 100% of repurchase requests in September 2024.
The current annualized distribution rate is 7.64% for Class I shares, 7.12% for Class D shares, 7.11% for Class M shares, 6.52% for Class S shares and 6.58% for Class T shares, based on the November 1, 2024 transaction price.
The tax equivalent distribution rate is 8.54% for Class I shares, 7.96% for Class D shares, 7.95% for Class M shares, 7.29% for Class S shares and 7.35% for Class T shares, based on the November 1, 2024 transaction price.3
We have offered a high level of excess income over short-term rates on both a nominal and real basis.
| • | | Based on the Class I share, our annualized distribution rate of 7.64% is 305 basis points above 3-month Treasury bills (T-bills) on a nominal and real yield basis.4 |
| • | | Our tax-equivalent annualized distribution rate is 394bps over 3-month T-bills, or 2.8x higher compared to T-bills when comparing real yields/distribution rates.4 |
3 | Tax-equivalent distribution rate reflects the distribution rate required under the prior tax law in order for an investor to receive the same after-tax income under the new tax law. For example, a REIT’s annualized distribution rate would need to be 8.54% under the prior tax law in order for investors to receive the same amount of after-tax income as a REIT with an annualized distribution rate of 7.64% under the new tax law. The distribution rates quoted assume a 37% tax bracket. |
4 | Three-month T-bill yield as of October 15, 2024. |